Sunday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

Spylock

5 Oakland +3.5

Selective

SUNDAY
NY Giants -1 for 7 units

Detroit/Minnesota Under 45.5 for 5 units

Houston/Tennessee Over 42.5 for 4 units

Wunderdog- (NFL SUNDAY)

Game: Seattle at Philadelphia (Sunday 12/02 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 42 -110

This is the first game with high confidence in the UNDER, but not quite as high as the other two.

Game: New York Giants at Chicago (Sunday 12/02 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 42.5 -110

THis is extremely high confidence, earlier the better.

Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Sunday 12/02 8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 46 -110

EROCKMONEY 5-2 AGAIN LAST WEEK

EROCKMONEY#8 @OSM 51/30 62.96% SIDES 33/24 O/U'S 18/6

(1.) San Diego (-5.5) at Kansas City

I had a feeling the Chargers would play much better down the stretch and for the most part they have. They lost at Jacksonville but that is nothing to be ashamed of. The Chargers owe the Chiefs from their upset win in San Diego earlier this season. Kansas City has struggled of late and it should continue this week. The Chargers have the Western division title in sight and won't drop this big road game.

Pick: Chargers by 14

(2.) Detroit (+3.5) at Minnesota

How quickly has everyone jumped off Detroit's bandwagon? I picked the Vikings earlier this season Detroit (push) in a game in which the Vikings dominated but lost. For years the Vikings have owned the Lions. However, over the last few season the Lions really dominated most game but still lost. Maybe the shoe is on the other foot now, so I'm expecting the Vikings to dominate, but lose.

Pick: Lions by 3

(3.) Buffalo (+5.5) at Washington

This game could go either way in the wake of the Sean Taylor tragedy. Playing with heavy hearts I think the Skins may struggle early. Washington usually doesn't blow out team even when they are playing well. The Skins get it done for their fallen teammate, but I'll take the points.

Pick: Redskins by 4

(Blowout of the Week) Denver (-3.5) at Oakland

The Raiders burned me last week at KC, but I'm going against them again this week. The Broncos season is on the line and Oakland already played them tight in Denver which makes me more confident this one won't be close. Denver is reeling after blowing a big fourth quarter lead last week in Chicago and will be determined to beat their hated rivals.

Pick: Denver by 21

(Upset Special) Seattle (+3.5) at Philadelphia

Coming off an emotional performance last week in which the Eagles outplayed the powerhouse Patriots in New England. The Seahawks are usually a solid play agianst on the road and everyone is expecting the Eagles to go on a roll now. If the Eagles play the way they did last week they would win by three TD's. I'm expecting abig drop off this week with the Seahawks stealing one on the road.

Pick: Seahawks by 3

(Under 51.5) Green Bay at Dallas (Thur.)

The defenses usually show up in big games. I think both high powered offenses will be somewhat conservative and play a little ball control in an attempt to keep the opposing offense off the field. I find that games of this magnitude are rarely shootouts unless one team pulls ahead early. I think this one will be close throughout.

(Over 37) Buffalo at Washington

I think the Bills hang around a put some points on the board even with all the problems they are having in their backfield. I expect Evans to have one of his big games which have been rare this season. There will be a lot of emotion in this game and I expect the points to come in bunches.

Dr. Bob

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3 Star Selection
*** PITTSBURGH (-7.0) 30 Cincinnati 14
05:15 PM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
Don’t let Cincinnati ’s 35-6 win over Tennessee fool you. The Bengals are still bad team and they were out-gained by the Titans 6.1 yards per play to 5.7 yppl in that seemingly dominant win. Cincy also hasn’t played well in consecutive games all season, as the Bengals are 0-4 ATS after a pointspread win. Last week’s big win sets Cincinnati up in a negative 24-61-2 ATS road letdown situation and Pittsburgh applies to a 63-28-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that they have the characteristics of a good home favorite. That wasn’t the case last week on a horrible field on Monday night against Miami , but the Steelers have won their 6 home games by an average score of 26-9 this season. The only good thing about Cincinnati is an offense that has been 0.4 yards per play better than average this season, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack. However, Pittsburgh ’s defense has a significant advantage over that unit, as the Steelers have yielded just 4.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Steelers have been just average offensively but Cincy has given up 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team, so Pittsburgh should move the ball well like they did in the first meeting (they averaged 6.6 yppl in a 24-13 win at Cincinnati). Pittsburgh’s most productive receiver, Santonio Holmes, is likely to miss this game, but quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has only been 0.1 yppl worse in 2 other games that Holmes has missed this season. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 11 points in this game and the situation is favorable, so I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3- Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 points.

2-Star Total
**UNDER (42) - Atlanta 18 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
The Rams may be without starting quarterback Marc Bulger, who suffered a concussion last week, but there really has been no difference between Bulger and backup Gus Frerotte in compensated yards per pass play – although Frerotte is more interception prone. The Rams’ offense is horrible regardless of who is at quarterback, as that unit has averaged only 4.5 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Atlanta is a bit worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team), but the Falcons stop unit has a significant edge over the Rams’ offense. Atlanta ’s offense is also at a disadvantage, as the Falcons have averaged only 4.8 yppl with Joey Harrington at quarterback (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while St. Louis is only 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). I really don’t understand how the total can be 42 points in this game, as Rams games have averaged 40.8 points (against teams that combine to average 42.1 total points per game) while Atlanta has averaged only 36.3 total points per game against teams that combine to average 40.7 total points. If Rams’ games are 1.3 points lower scoring than normal and Falcons’ games are 4.4 points lower scoring than normal, then you’d expect this game to be 5.7 points lower scoring than normal. The average points in a game is 42.8 this season and the median points is 41 ½ points, so a total of 36 or 37 points results from that simple analysis. Atlanta is 7-4 Under this year, including 5-0 Under on the road while the Rams are 8-3 Under this season. My math model projects just 34 ½ points, and I’ll go UNDER 41 points or more in a 2-Star Best Bet.

Strong Opinion
DALLAS (-7.0) 30 Green Bay 17
05:15 PM Pacific, 29-Nov-07
Green Bay has been red-hot since their bye week, winning and covering all 5 games heading into the NFC showdown with fellow 10-1 team Dallas. The Packers are certainly capable of competing in this game, but they apply to a very negative 24-75-3 ATS road letdown situation tonight while Dallas applies to a very strong 74-27-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’d love to play Dallas here as a Best Bet, but the line is a little high. Green Bay is no longer a one-dimensional offense team since RB Ryan Grant burst onto the scene with 467 rushing yards at 4.6 ypr in 5 games since taking over the running back position. Brett Favre is having an exceptional season and the Packers are actually rate the same offensively as the Cowboys’ potent attack (both are 1.2 yards per play better than average). The Packers are 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, but that’s not nearly as good as a stingy Cowboys’ defense that is 0.9 yppl better than average since star LB Greg Ellis began playing in week 4. Overall my math model favors Dallas by just 4 points since Green Bay is better on special team, but the situation and statistical indicator favoring Dallas are both strong enough to give up some line value. I’ll consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at -7 or less and I’d take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.

Strong Opinion
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) 28 Jacksonville 15
10:00 AM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
The Colts have a slim one game lead in the AFC South over the Jaguars, so this is an important contest. In the first meeting Jaguars quarterback David Garrard was injured and backup Quinn Gray was horrible in his place. Garrard is back and playing well (0 interceptions this season), but the Jaguars apply to a very negative 24-75-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Colts apply to a solid 63-28-4 ATS statistical profile indicator (they have the statistical characteristics of a team that should be good as a home favorite). Indianapolis hasn’t been as explosive offensively without star WR Marvin Harrison but the Colts have been very good defensively this season (4.5 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Jacksonville ’s defense hasn’t been nearly as good as it’s been in recent years, as the Jags have allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would only combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The problem is that the line is high according to my math model, which favors the Colts by just 4 points after adjusting for the Colts’ pass attack without Harrison and the Jags having Garrard back at the helm. The Colts traditionally out-play their stats by a couple of points, so a fair line of 6 points could be justified and 7 is too high. I’ll consider Indianapolis a Strong Opinion at -7 or less and for a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.

Ron Jaworski

St. Louis 20 - Atlanta 17

Washington 21 - Buffalo 16

Minnesota 24 - Detroit 17

Tennessee 17 - Houston 13

Miami 20 - NY Jets 17

Indianapolis 31 - Jacksonville 27

San Diego 21 - Kansas City 20

Philadelphia 24 - Seattle 21

Carolina 17 - San Francisco 16

New Orleans 24 - Tampa Bay 20

Arizona 31 - Cleveland 28

Denver 27 - Oakland 24

NY Giants 21 - Chicago 17

Pittsburgh 31 - Cincinnati 28

Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #361 New York Giants (-130) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)
It may not seem it, but this is a revenge game. The Bears embarrassed a beat-up Giants team last year in the Meadowlands - capped by Devin Hester's return of a missed field goal - but that was actually a close game for three quarters. Now, it's the Bears defense that is banged up and the Giants are going to execute some turnabout. Chicago has had two seemingly "season saving" wins this year - at Green Bay and at Philly - only to turn around and lose as a favorite the next week. They aren't a favorite here, but they are going to lose. If Brandon Jacobs does play (he's 50-50 right now) you may want to bump this a Unit.

2-Unit Play. Take #342 Minnesota (-3.5) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)
Note: This was mis-posted as a 2-Unit play. It should be a 3.5-Unit pick. Per company policy, we do not change anything about our plays once they have been posted. However, this should be a 3.5-Unit pick. I apologize.

The Vikings had won 10 straight against the Lions before dropping a trip to Detroit in Week 2. The Lions are a sinking ship right now and should be physically manhandled by Minnesota on both sides of the ball. Adrian Peterson will be back this week, but the key is that I think Minnesota will get more confident QB play at home. The Lions secondary can't exploit Minnesota's weakness on offense and we're backing the far superior defense here. Detroit is 4-10-1 ATS in divisional games while the Vikings are 10-4-1 ATS against the NFC North.

3-Unit Play. Take #357 Cleveland (+1) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)
We have a high-flying Browns club matched up against an Arizona team that is caught in a Look Ahead-Letdown spot. They have to be a little deflated after that poor loss to a bad San Fran team last week and with a game at Seattle on the horizon I think the Browns will catch the Cards napping. Arizona lost the one indespensible defensive player that had this week (Adrian Wilson) and he was the one holding together a suspect secondary. Cleveland has covered six straight and are 9-2 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record and Arizona is 2-6 ATS as a favorite and 4-12 ATS after scoring 30 or more.

2-Unit Play. Take First Half: #354 Carolina (-1.5) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)
San Fran is 0-3 ATS against the first half line in games in the Eastern Time Zone this year. They have been outscored 142-43 in the first 30 minutes of their last 10 games in the EST. The Panthers are 9-1 ATS against San Fran and I think they jump out to a positive start here.

2-Unit Play. Take #352 Philadelphia (-3) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)
Seattle is another team that is bad on the road, bad on grass, and bad in the Eastern Time Zone. They have won Three straight, but the last two have been more of a result of fortunate, timely turnovers by their opponents (that were mostly due to incompetance by Rex Grossman and Gus Frerotte). Philadelphia has shown some life and I think they build off the momentum of their near-miss against New England. Seattle is 5-11-1 ATS on the road, and Philly is 7-2 ATS against teams with a winning record.

1-Unit Play. Take #340 Washington (-6) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)
I normally stay very far away from these games - games laced with incredible emotion due to a death or some tragic off-field occurrence - but I like the Redskins before the Sean Taylor tragedy and I'm going with them here. They have underachieved all season and I think that with some focus and emotion they will put together the type of performance to justify my opinion of them. The Skins won't turn the ball over six times in this game and I see them controlling both lines of scrimmage.

Hello,

This week's Perfect System Club play from Marc Lawrence:

NFL 12/2/07
HOME SWEET HOME
PLAY ON any > .500 NFL home team off back-to-back road losses if they
were pick or favored in their last game and scored 17 opponent.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 13-0

Play On: Tennessee Titans

Rationale: winning teams returning home off back-to-back road losses
find home cooking to their liking, especially if they were held in
check on the scoreboard in the last game

Pointwise Newsletter

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Rated Plays

Rating:3
Miami 17 NYJ 13

Rating:3
Cleveland 31 Arizona 30

Rating:4
Houston 22 Tennessee 20

Rating:4
Jacksonville 22 Indy 23

Rating:5
Kansas City 20 SanDiego 19

other games:
STL 20 ATL 10
Wash 23 Buff 13
Minn 27 Det 17
Phil 23 Sea 17
Car 20 SF 17
NO 27 TB 20
Den 23 Oak 16
NYG 26 Chi 20
Pitt 30 Cinci 23

Norm Hitzges

NFL

Double Play

Minnesota -3.5 vs Detroit

Single Plays

San Diego -6 vs Kansas City
St. Louis -3 vs Atlanta
Jacksonville +6.5 vs Indy
San Francisco +3 vs Carolina
Cleveland/Arizona Over 51.5
Tennessee/Houston Over 42
Carolina/San Francisco Over 35

Point Train 2007

6-UNIT BEST BET FAVORITE FINISHER

The Point Train’s top NFL play of the week focuses on a favorite that will finish off its opponent quickly. This chalk has one MAJOR EDGE that will give them the PERFECT ANGLE at a blowout victory. Our 6-UNIT BEST BET is supported by an 80% winning trend that will validate this selection. Jump on board this winner now while the line is low!!

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rating: 6 units

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NEW ORLEANS (-) over Tampa Bay at 4:15 pm EST The Saints have been a bit schizophrenic this year with inconsistent performances from week to week. But this week has all the makings of one of their great weeks. New Orleans is catching Tampa Bay at a great time, as starting QB Jeff Garcia is doubtful for the game with a balky back. The Buccaneers offense is one predicated on efficiency and Garcia is as efficient as they come. But his likely replacement, 2nd-year QB Bruce Gradkowski, isn’t nearly as efficient. The Bucs don’t score much as is. With Garcia out of the lineup, scoring will be a major premium. New Orleans pounded a depleted Carolina team 31-6 last week and it will do the same to a depleted Tampa Bay team. If the Bucs can’t pass, and they won’t with Garcia out, they’ll struggle to move the ball. New Orleans’ major weakness is pass defense but that won’t be an issue with Garcia sidelined. The Saints are 10th in the NFL in rush defense and should have no issues shutting down the Tampa run game. Tampa Bay has struggled as the underdog in recent games, going 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road dog and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as the dog overall. New Orleans has done great as the favorite recently, going 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a small favorite of 3 points or less. The Saints were embarrassed in their first meeting with the Bucs in Tampa. This weekend they’ll return the favor with a big win, preserving their chances at the postseason. Take New Orleans.

Point Train NFC DOG DOMINATOR

DETROIT LIONS +4 -vs-Minnesota Vikings

Rating: 3 units

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Detroit (+) over MINNESOTA at 1:00 pm EST At first glance Minnesota’s 41-17 road win over the Giants last week looks mighty impressive. But it really wasn’t all that impressive. It was really more of a tribute to Eli Manning’s inability to throw to the right team. Manning threw four awful picks to the Vikings, which led directly to 28 points, with three being taken back for a score. Minnesota had only extended drive the entire game and totaled just 251 yards for the game. That won’t cut it against a Detroit team that is desperate to make the playoffs. The Lions match up very well with the Vikings. Minnesota’s offense is almost all rush-based and Detroit can stop the run. The Lions limited the Vikings to just 3.7 ypc in beating them 20-17 in the first meeting this year and they should be able to do the same this time. They are 9th in the NFL in rush defense. Minnesota might be good at stopping the run but it can’t stop the pass. That is where the Lions excel as they are 7th in the NFL with 251 passing yards per game. The Vikings will come back to earth in this one as the Lions sweep the season series. Grab

Nelly

2* atlanta +3
2* detroit +4
2* nygiants -1.5

Asa 5* Nfl

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NY Giants

gary greene top play in nfl is browns and cardinals over total