NFL Chicks released as of 9:30 PM.....
Game of the Month 8 units - 339 Buffalo +6
Game of the Month 7 units - 361 NY Giants -1
6 units - 341 Detroit +4
5 units - 343 Houston +3.5
5 units - 357 Cleveland +1
4 units - 347 NY Jets +1
2 units - 339 Buffalo +225 ML
2 units - 341 Detroit +170 ML
2 units - 343 Houston +170 ML
steve budin SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME PLAY
PITTSBURGH-CINCINNATI UNDER
50 DIME PLAY
HOUSTON-TENNESSEE UNDER
Note from Steve Budin:
These are two SEPARATE 50 Dime selections.
Do NOT parlay them together; that is not how they are to be played. Plus, as a former bookmaker with 20 years of experience I can tell you that parlays are nothing but sucker bets.
Also, do NOT tease these two totals in anyway as these plays are NOT from that crew out of Laughlin, Nevada that specializes in teasers
Selective Sports Systems
SUNDAY
NY Giants -1 for 7 units
Detroit/Minnesota Under 45.5 for 5 units
Houston/Tennessee Over 42.5 for 4 units
NFL Regular season
NFL WEEK 13
Packers/Cowboys Under 51
went down in flames
3 NFL Plays are now up for Sunday
Looking for a huge bounce back
2-3 ATS for Week 12
-12.9 units for week 12
18-16 ATS on 4 unit and above plays
3-2 on my 10 unit Plays
3-3 ATS on my 7 unit plays
4-5 ATS on my 5 unit Plays
8-7 ATS on my 4 unit Plays
31-28 ATS Overall
-0.1 units Overall
Burns NFL
UNDER lions/vikings (44 or better)
Game: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Game Time: 12/2/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Detroit and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. These teams combined for 37 points when they met at Detroit in September. That over/under line was below the key number of 44 while this afternoon's line currently sits above that important number. I feel that gives us excellent value with the UNDER. Yes, the Vikings come off back to back high-scoring victories. However, they've also seen the UNDER go a profitable 6-0-1 the last seven times that they were coming off back to back wins. Additionally, the Vikings have seen the UNDER go 19-9-1 the last 29 times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 45 to 49. During the same stretch, the Lions have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 15-4-1 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Nine of the last 13 series encounters at the Metrodome have fallen UNDER the total. Additionally, Minnesota has finished UNDER the total in nine straight games off a double-digit win and in seven straight off a road win. Look for more of the same here as the final combined score stays well beneath the generous number. *NFC North Total of the Year
PHILADELPHIA (-4 or better)
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles Game Time: 12/2/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. I feel that the situation strongly favors the home team. For starters, the Eagles have the advantage of playing at home with an early start time vs. a West Coast based team. I've always believed that to be significant. Additionally, the Seahawks are coming off a rather fortunate divisional win (Rams fumbled at the goal line in closing seconds) and have a date with their current primary division rival (Arizona) on deck. Note that Seattle is also an awful 15-35 ATS the last 50 times it was coming off a win over a divisional opponent. Additionally, despite last week's cover, the Seahawks remain a money-burning 5-11-2 ATS their last 17 road games. They're also an ugly 3-11-1 the last 15 times they were listed as non-division road dogs. The Eagles, 13-6 SU and 11-6-2 ATS their last 19 home games played in December, will have some payback on their minds. That's because they lost 42-0, in front of a national Monday Night audience, the last time the Seahawks came to town. Although they lost last week, the Eagles can build some confidence from that game as they were able to hang with the best team in football (New England) every step of the way. As offensive tackle Shawn Andrews had to say: "If we keep playing the way we played today, we can still win out. We're a physical group and we can play with anybody." While Seattle can afford to lose this game, the Eagles cannot. Look for a highly motivated effort from Andy Reid's squad as they climb back to 500 and avenge the 2005 loss with a convincing win of their own. *December Blowout GOM
ARIZONA (-3 or better)
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 12/2/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Reason: I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Browns have certainly been a nice story. However, I feel that they'll stumble against an under-rated Arizona squad. While the Browns will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks, the Cardinals are at home for the second straight week and third in the last four. Despite a fortunate win at Baltimore in their most recent road game, the Browns remain below 500 on the road where they've given up more than 28 points per game. Note that the Browns remain a poor 16-30 ATS the last 46 times that they were listed as road underdogs of seven points or less. I successfully played against Arizona last week and they lost outright vs. the 49ers. They've always fared well at home when coming off a home loss though, cashing 16 of their last 22 in that situation. Additionally, I don't think its fluke that the Cardinals have managed a perfect 3-0 ATS record against teams from the AFC North division this season. That's because new coach Whisenhunt was Bill Cowher's assistant and has first-hand knowledge of all the teams in his former division. The Cardinals are also 7-3 ATS their last 10 home games played in the month of December. I believe that they have a significantly better defense than the Browns. The Cardinals' offense has also been better of late as they are averaging 32.3 points their last three games, a field goal better than Cleveland's 29.3. Yes, the Cardinals do have a big divisional showdown with division leader Seattle on deck. However, I don't expect there to be any "looking ahead" as the Cards know that game will be a lot less meaningful if they lose this week and Seattle wins. Look for home field to be the difference as the highly motivated Cardinals continue this season's ATS dominance against teams from the AFC North. *Personal Favorite.
3 game executive report
Chiefs
Panthers
Raiders
Larry Ness' NFL Oddsmaker's Error GOY (FB run now at 19-3 or 86.4% ATS since Nov 16!)
My Oddsmaker's Error GOY is on the Az Cardinals at 4:05 ET. Let's hear it for the Browns and their 7-4 mark but this is a terrible spot for them. Worse yet, their six-game ATS winning streak has robbed the team of any "line value." Cleveland is playing its third road game in its last four. The team's last four games have been either at home or on the road against a division foe. Here, the Browns must travel to the desert, to meet an Arizona team playing back-to-back home games for the first time this year. The Cards are off an embarrassing OT loss to the hapless 49ers, which gives us even more "line value" in this one. While the Browns have been quite a story TY, let's note that the team is just 2-3 SU on the road (will need to win to cover here!), winning at the Rams (StL is 0-5 SU at home in '07) and at Baltimore, which is 1-10 ATS in '07 (you know about the ending to that game!). The Browns own the NFL's worst defense, ranking last in both YPG (397.9) and PPG (28.3). That's good news for Arizona, as QB Kurt Warner has led the Cards to an average of 32.3 PPG the last three games, completing 67.9% of his passes, throwing for an average of 318.0 YPG with a ratio of 7-3. Ken Whisenhunt and his key assistants came from Pittsburgh and the Cards have been great vs AFC North teams this year, going 2-1 SU and ATS. Seattle (three-time defending NFC West champs) lost here in Week 2, Pittsburgh (8-3 now) was 3-0 while outscoring opponents 97-26 when it lost here in Week 4 and Detroit lost here in Week 10, when it was 6-2. At this price, Arizona is my Oddsmaker's Error GOY.
SPYLOCK
** NUMBERS IN BOLD AT THE END ARE THEIR RATINGS
NFL
DateTime Game Pick Stars
12/02/07 Jacksonville Jaguars
1:05 PM Indianapolis Colts -6.5 Indianapolis Colts -6.5 1
12/02/07 Denver Broncos -3.5
4:10 PM Oakland Raiders Oakland Raiders +3.5 5 --> HUUUGE PLAY FOR THEM
12/02/07 New York Giants -1.5 New York Giants -1.5 1
4:20 PM Chicago Bears
SPYLOCK
** NUMBERS IN BOLD AT THE END ARE THEIR RATINGS
NFL
DateTime Game Pick Stars
12/02/07 Jacksonville Jaguars
1:05 PM Indianapolis Colts -6.5 Indianapolis Colts -6.5 1
12/02/07 Denver Broncos -3.5
4:10 PM Oakland Raiders Oakland Raiders +3.5 5 --> HUUUGE PLAY FOR THEM
12/02/07 New York Giants -1.5 New York Giants -1.5 1
4:20 PM Chicago Bears
Marc Lawrence
Game: Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins Dec 2 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
Reason: Play On: Buffalo Bills
Note: Redskins host the Bills with their minds sadly focused on Sean Taylor's murder this past week. Not a good time for a team riding a 3-game losing streak. Look for Buffalo to improve to 5-0 ATS in this series with a not-so-surprsing straight-up win here today.
Michael Cannon
Sunday's Early Plays...
30 Dime -
EAGLES
10 Dime -
VIKINGS
CARDINALS
I will be back by 10:30 am eastern with my analysis.
Sunday's Late Plays...
10 Dime -
NUGGETS
5 Dime -
STEELERS
JOEY GAFNEY
Indy
New Orleans
Philly
Giants
Minny
Psychic Sports Picks Members Area
12/2
ALL NFL
2 units Minnesota -4
2 units Denver -3.5
2 units New Orleans -3
2 units Carolina -3
4 units Miami -1
Wild Bill
St Louis -3 (1 unit)
Buffalo +5 1/2 (2 units)
Detroit +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 42 1/2 Houston-Tenn (5 units)
Kansas City +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Eagles -2 1/2 (1 unit)
Tampa +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 51 1/2 Cleveland-Arizona (3 units)
Bears +1 1/2 (2 units)
Cincy +10 1/2 (1 unit)
Jason Firestone
Play the Eagles -3 for 4 units
NFC GAME OF THE MONTH!
Perfect situation for the Eagles here. If you look ahead to the rest of their schedule, this truly is a MUST WIN game for the Birds. With a 5-6 record and Dallas, the Saints, Giants, and Bills remaining on their schedule, 1 more loss would pretty much eliminate them from any Playoff hopes. They also come in with probably the most confidence they have had since their Super Bowl appearance 3 years ago. I also love the situation that the Seahawks are in. This is a full blown play against situation. They come into this game at 7-4 a full 2 games ahead of their closest competition the Cards at 5-6. It gets better. They will be traveling across country which is never good to begin with, but they will have to battle the elements as Philadelphia is expecting rain and sleet all day long. Sure Seattle is used to the rain, but right now their offense is not good enough to move the ball in these type of conditions, especially with a less than healthy Alexander. I am also not big on them on the road period, let alone in bad weather. In fact, Seattle is only 2-3 this year on the road with the 2 wins coming against teams that are a combined 5-17! Their 3 losses were to teams fighting for a Playoff Spot (Arizona, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh) They are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. We also have to look at the fact that after this game, the Seahwaks will travel back home to prepare for the Cards. Seattle will be playing with major revenge there, and a chance to clinch at least a tie for that division. So, combine the road woes with the travel across country and the look ahead factor, plus the Eagles soaring with confidence, I see a dominating Eagle win today. Eagles win 20-7 (Play a BONUS 1 unit on Under 43)
Play the Dolphins +1.5 for 2 units
Ok, we all know its going to happen. No one will ever go 0-16. Just forget about it! Yes, it would be funny to see (sorry Dolphin Fans) but it wont so get it out of your head. This line also points out that we need to remember that this Miami team is not as bad as their record indicates. Remember they have lost 6 games by only 3 points including one in New York earlier this year to the Jets. They are in every game! Looking ahead, they will play the Pats, Bengals, Bills, and Ravens. This will be their best chance to win a game. The Jets are just as bad, if not worse, and they will get a very hungry Dolphins team today. Miami wins 20-10 (Bonus 1 unit play on Under 37.5)
Play the Bengals +7 for 1.5 units
This is a series as ill prove in a second that always sees the road team play better. The road team in this series is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Bengals have won 3 straight meetings outright in Pittsburgh. Keep in mind that these two teams pretty much are the same as they have been for the past few years. I don't expect anything different. The Bengals were beaten rather easily in their last meeting at home with Pittsburgh, so as holds true in most rivalries, I expect some revenge. The Bengals are also playing a lot better than they were earlier in the year. They have won 2 of their last 3 games allowing only 16 points per game in those 3 games. Their defense is getting much better and today should be no different as they get a struggling Steelers offense that will once again be without their deep threat (Holmes) That's big here as he has torched the Bengals D for 211 yards over the past 2 meetings. I see the Bengals hanging around in this game with a late FG by someone deciding this game
Play this BONUS 1 unit (7 point) teaser
Cleveland to +8.5 with the Lions to +11
The Lions are in a must win mode and with 11 days to prepare, I don't see this game getting away from them. The Cards lead the league in games decided by 8 or less points as 9 of their 11 games have been decided by 8 or less. Vikes 26-20....Cards 27-23
Ethan Law
NFL Total
double-dime
KAN / SD Over 36.0
SAN DIEGO (6-5) at KANSAS CITY (4-7)
What a crazy NFL season this has been. The San Diego Chargers (6-5 SU/ATS), a team picked by many to go to the super bowl this season have been a disaster offensively under new coach Norv Turner. The offensive woes have been two fold, first their young quarterback Philip Rivers (14 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) has been inconsistent all season and fantasy stud and perennial NFL MVP has had a season to remember. However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, as the Chargers have been playing a lot better over their past 7 games as they are riding an impressive 5-2 SU & ATS run. Indeed, over their last 7 games they put up over 30 points 3 times, over 23 twice and had two 17 point performances against the stout defenses of Minnesota and Jacksonville, two teams that are keen on stopping the run. Defensively San Diego is just an average NFL defense, one that is yielding over 20 points per game on over 340 yards. Part of the problem has been the loss of defensive end Luis Castillo who is out due to a knee injury. Meanwhile, nobody seems to want to have anything to do with Kansas City (4-7 SU & 5-5-1 ATS), who comes into this contest with one of the worst offenses in the league (ranked 30th) averaging just under 15 points per game. The Chiefs hit rock bottom last weekend when they suffered a brutal 20-17 home loss against the Raiders where they managed just 292 total yards. In that game, Kansas City started quarterback Brodie Croyle who now in the last two games has throw for just 169 and 145 yards! Kansas City loves running the football, but they have really no running back to speak of now that Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes (retirement) are out. Nevertheless, running back Kolby Smith filled in admirably last weekend against Oakland as he ran for an impressive 150 yards and two touchdowns.
King Creole
NFL Total
double-dime
CAR / SFOver 35.5
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Looks like the Niner offense might have righted the ship, with the 37-point outburst (and BIG dog win) over the Cardinals. The 374 offensive yards was 90 better than any other game TY. And on defense, they gave up a whopping 552 yards! The ROAD OVERTIME win sets up a nice System: December road teams off a road OVERTIME win are 4-0 O/U since 2001. San Francisco also qualifies in the same System as the Raiders (pg 2): Teams off a SU road win that broke a 5+ game LOSING streak are 15-3 O/U if the line is 4 pts are a PERFECT 7-0 O/U. As I wrote about in this week's TOTALS TIPSHEET, the OU line range in this game is favorable for an Over based on the current 2007 results. NFL games with an OU line of 35.5 to 36.5 pts have gone 11-4 O/U (7-1 O/U at 36 to 36.5).
Meanwhile, the Panthers just got spanked at home against the Saints. The severity of the loss has them active in some nice Over numbers this week. First off, THIS season, NFL teams off a SU home loss of 24 or more pts are 7-1-1 O/U. The NY GIANTS also qualify in that one. For this week specifically, I came up with this one to back us up: Game 12 home FAVORITES off a SU loss of 17 > pts are 10-2 O/U in the last 10 years... and 8-1 O/U as home favs of less than (<) 7 pts. Our 2 qualifiers this week are the PANTHERS... and the TITANS. Finally, this game qualifies in our famous 'Time Zone' System. So far in the 2007 season, WEST time zone teams (49ers) on the road against EAST time zone teams (Panthers)... in the EARLY kickoffs... are 9-3 O/U... and 8-1 O/U if playing off a SU win (like San Fran). 'Nothing could be finer' than a Carolina OVER (final score: 24-21).
NFL Total
double-dime
OAK / DEN Over 42
Analysis: 4:05pm ET / DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Another area that we covered in this week's TOTALS TIPSHEET has to do with AFC West divisional games. This is a good time of the season for Overs if the AFC West home team is catching points (like Oakland). These games have gone 12-4 O/U since 2000. And lets not forget the current eye-opening OU numbers in regards to the Broncos. Dating back exactly 12 months (the equivalent of a full season), Denver is on a current 14-2 O/U streak in ALL games. Average points scored in Bronco games has been 48.7 during the streak. And as QB Jay Cutler has improved, so has the offense. Last 3 games has seen the offense put up 32 PPG.
As I mentioned above, Division road favs have gone OVER at a very high % so far in 2007. The month of November just wrapped with a 5-1 O/U record if our fav is taking on an opponent off a SU win (like the Raiders). Denver is also 10-1 O/U when playing off a non-conf game... 4-1 O/U in the 2nd of BB road games... and 7-2 O/U as road favs of -4 pts went a PERFECT 7-0 O/U. In another hot 2007 OU System, we note that Teams off a SU road win that broke a 5+ game LOSING streak are 15-3 O/U if the game line is 4 < pts.... and 9-1 O/U vs fellow div opp (OAK). After going Under for 5 games in row, Oakland has now gone Over in their last 2 games. A 7-1 O/U home System tells us that this one also has Bay Area BOMBING potential: 27-24.