Ben Burns' 2007 NFL "BLOWOUT" GAME OF THE YEAR! (EARLY KICK)
Ben Burns was a perfect 5-0 with his NFL sides last week, including a 34-3 ROUT with his "blowout special" on the Skins. If you liked that romp, you're simply going to LOVE this week's monster, as it's got all the makings of an absolute masscre. In fact, it's Ben's #1 GAME BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR!
RAVENS -10
Ben Burns' #1 NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Ben Burns was a sizzling 5-1 with his NFL picks on Sunday, including an easy winner on Sea/Pitt. "under" the total. However, he came up just short with his AFC Total of the Year in the SD/Denver game. The Man doesn't have a GrandMaster Rating with his NFL totals for nothing though & he's only releasing one today!
UNDER Raiders/Chargers 43
Ben Burns' 3-Game EXEC. Report (includes Sunday Night G.O.M!)
Ben Burns has released four 3-Game "Executive Reports" in the NFL over the past month, going a perfect 4-0 with those packages and a powerful 9-3 with the individual plays. That includes a 3-game sweep with last Sunday's card. Burns is getting out the broom again this week. First game goes early.
COWBOYS (+4 or better)
BUCS (-3 or better)
SAINTS (+6 or better) Sunday Night GOM
Marc Lawrence Playbook
5* Eagles
4* Vikings
3* Raiders
Totals
5* Browns under
4* Bears over
3* Packers under
RED SHEET
NFL
Tennessee 24 - TAMPA BAY 19 - (1:00) -- Line opened at TampaBay minus 2½, and is now minus 3. The
brilliant accomplishments of the Titans, under the leadership of Vince Young, just continue
on. An amazing 14-2 spread run, winning 9 of their last 11 on the field. A week ago, Young
was an unlikely 0/3 (touchdown passes to interceptions), & yet Tennessee still prevailed,
20-13, over Atlanta, missing the spread by a mere pt (what else is new in the NFL?). But
that line miss only served to move the success of the underdog in Tennessee games to
mind-blowing 12-0 ATS. So here we go again, grabbing the Titans in the role of dogs,
thanks to the recent improvement of the Bucs, who covered their last 2 HGs by 34 pts, but
who are also in off a 28-12 FD deficit in their stepup shot at Indy. Upset call.
RATING: TENNESSEE 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): NFL: Miami, NewEngland, Atlanta
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): NFL: Houston (+8 to +6½); StLouis (+11 to +10); Oakland (+11 to +10);
NewOrleans (+7½ to +6½)
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
POINTWISE
NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND over Dallas RATING: 2
OAKLAND over San Diego RATING: 3
TENNESSEE over Tampa Bay RATING: 4
SEATTLE over New Orleans RATING: 4
ATLANTA over New York Giants RATING: 5
NORM HITZGES
Regular season:NFL: 28-24
NFL
Double Play--Philadelphia -3.5 vs NY Jets
Double Play--New England -5 vs Dallas
Double Play--Arizona -4.5 vs Carolina
Chicago -5 vs Minnesota
Washington +3 vs Green Bay
Dallas/New England Over 52
Green Bay/Washington Under 41
Cleveland/Miami Under 45
Jacksonville/Houston Under 37.5
Philadelphia/NY Jets Under 43
Kelso Sun NFL
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Chairmans Club 10 units Seattle -6 v. Saints
Best Bets Club
5 units Ariz -5 v. Carolina
4 units Phill -3.5 @ Jets
3 units Browns -4 v. Miami
spylock
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3* tenn
ATS Lock CLub
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7 units on the Arizona Cardinals (-4 1/2) over the Carolina Panthers, 4:00
6 units on the Tennessee Titans (+3) over the Tampa Bay Bucs, 1:00
4 units onthe Green Bay Packers (-3) over the Washington Redskins, 1:00
4 units on the Chicago Bears (-4 1/2) over the Minnesota Vikings, 1:00
Michael Cannon Goes 1-3 on Saturday, Down 35 Dimes
Sunday's Late NFL Action...
10 Dime –
RAIDERS
Take the points with Oakland this afternoon when they visit San Diego.
The Raiders have improved dramatically this year under first-year head coach Lane Kiffin. They are finally building an identity on offense after a few years of not knowing what kind of team they wanted to be.
The Raiders lead the NFL with 194.2 rushing yards per game, thanks in part to an offensive line which has shown significant improvement.
Another factor working in their favor is they are coming off a bye week, which will allow Kiffin to expand the playbook a bit for quarterback Daunte Culpepper.
Their running game should open up some passing lanes for Culpepper, even if running back LaMont Jordan can’t go today. Justin Fargas filled in for Jordan in the second half of their win at Miami and ran for a career-high 179 yards. Dominic Rhodes will also be eligible to play after serving his four-game suspension, so Oakland will be able to keep fresh legs coming at the Chargers defense.
San Diego coach Norv Turner has been a money burner when installed as a heavy chalk in his coaching career, going 1-11 ATS as a division favorite of more than 5 points.
The Raiders are on a nice 9-2 ATS mark as a road dog in October in games off a SU win. They are also on positive ATS runs of 5-1 against the AFC West, 6-2-1 in divisional road games and 6-2 when catching eight or more points.
The Chargers are 1-4 ATS following a SU win and 1-6 ATS as a double-digit chalk.
Take the points with Oakland as they keep this game within the number.
SEAHAWKS
Two pissed-off teams here tonight.
The Saints have morphed back into the ‘Aints, while the Seahawks are still trying to get the license plate of the truck that steamrolled them in Pittsburgh last week.
I’ll side with the latter here as Seattle suffered from an NFC West sandwich and having to fly to the east coast last week, which are two excellent excuses as to why they were so thoroughly beaten by the Steelers.
New Orleans may wind up righting the ship, but it won’t be tonight and it won’t be in time to save their season.
The Saints have no running game to lean on now that Deuce McAlister is out for the season with an injury. They weren’t using him enough before he was hurt, and now they don’t have him when they need him the most.
Drew Brees is pressing on every pass attempt, you can see it in the films. He wants so desperately to hit the big play every time he drops back to pass that he’s forgotten how to take what the defense is giving him.
Contrary to their showing last week, Seattle has a pretty good defense which will bottle up the predictable Saints offense.
Another huge flaw is the New Orleans secondary, specifically their safeties, who routinely get beat for big plays down the field. Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has the ability to attack this defense over the top, so watch for him to go downfield tonight.
The Saints are in an 0-7 ATS rut going back to last season. Seattle has won 18 of its last 21 home games, going 13-7-1 ATS.
Lay the points with Seattle as they win this one by more than a touchdown.
Sunday's Early NFL Action...
40 Dime –
TITANS
Take the points with the Titans when they travel to take on the Buccaneers.
Tennessee has stepped it up defensively this season and should be able to grind the Bucs attack to a halt this afternoon.
That’s because Tampa Bay comes into this game hurting at running back, with both Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman out with injuries. That prompted the Bucs to sign 13-year veteran Zach Crockett on Wednesday. He will team with Earnest Graham, who has never started an NFL game, to get some semblance of a running game going for coach Jon Gruden.
Tennessee’s defense is allowing just 275.8 ypg, including just 72.3 on the ground. They will force Tampa Bay to become one-dimensional, which will allow the Titans to bring pressure on quarterback Jeff Garcia.
The Titans may not be pretty on offense, but they use their running game to control the clock and Vince Young always seems to make just enough plays to get his team the win.
Tennessee has been a money-making machine recently, going 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games overall, 8-1 ATS on the road and 13-2 ATS as an underdog (8-1 as a road dog).
The Bucs are just 6-10-1 ATS against AFC opponents and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine as a home chalk.
Take the points with Tennessee as they deliver the outright win.
10 Dime –
EAGLES (Buy the ½ point if your line is -3 ½)
Take the Eagles as the road chalk today over the Jets.
The Eagles are coming into this game off their bye week and coach Andy Reid is money in the bank in these situations, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS after a week of rest.
Philadelphia really needed that bye week to get some players healthy, most importantly Brian Westbrook. This team really looks lost without him when he’s out and they can look downright unstoppable when he’s healthy.
Fortunately for Eagles fans he is listed as probable today, which means Philadelphia is going to score some points.
The Jets have been a disaster this year after making a surprise playoff appearance last season. Quarterback Chad Pennington has turned the ball over repeatedly and don’t think for a minute Eagles defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson isn’t going to bring the house against him. Johnson has seen the films of Pennington hurrying his throws under pressure which has led to numerous interceptions.
Philadelphia will be in Pennington’s face the whole game today. Since the Jets either haven’t or won’t run the football this year, they won’t be able to offset that defensive pressure.
Philadelphia returns to the scene of the crime, as they were run over by the Giants on this very field two weeks ago.
Don’t think for a minute they aren’t talking about that right now.
There’s something about the Giants that brings out the best in Philadelphia for their following game.
The Eagles are 9-0 ATS after taking on the G-Men.
Lay the points with the Eagles and remember to buy the ½ point if your line is -3 ½.
Root
Perfect Play- Green Bay
No Limit- KC
Billionaire- Dallas
Insider Circle- Jets
Moneymaker- Balt
Millionaire- Minn
Chairman- N.O
Larry Ness' LEGEND Play (1st in NFL '07 / 1-0 in CFB '07!)
My LEGEND Play is on the Jax Jags at 1:00 ET. The Texans entered the NFL in 2002 and through their first five seasons, they have just 24 wins. However, SIX (or 25%) have come against the Jags (in 10 meetings! Do the Texans have the Jags' number? I'm betting they don't! While Kubiak has this team on the way up, the Texans really miss WR Andre Johnson . Andre Davis has filled in nicely the last three games but the team's "go-to" receiver these days is TE Daniels (24 catches). Preseason rookie sensation (WR/KR) Jacoby Jones is expected back after missing two games but remember, he has just five catches in three regular season games. RBs Green and Dayne have been hurt all year, leaving the Texans with no consistent running game (85.8 YPG / 3.2 YPC). Green is expected back but the Jags know something about defense (No.2, allowing 10.3 PPG!) and last week held the Chiefs (with Larry Johnson), to 10 yards rushing. After allowing the Titans to run for 282 yards in Week 1, the Jags have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 46.3 YPG on 2.6 YPC!. I called for the Jags to bounce back from LY's 8-8 season and at 3-1, they are well on their way. In the two losses to Houston LY, Leftwich tired to play while injured in the first one (a disaster) and the 2nd time around (a three-point loss), WR Matt Jones bobbled two perfect throws (both intercepted) and WR Wilford had two key drops (one would have been a TD!). Jacksonville is now capable of dominating both lines of scrimmage and Garrard is a HUGE improvement over Leftwich at QB. He's completing 66.7%, with a ratio of 4-0 and a QB rating of 105.4 (4th-best). The Jags have the Colts up next but after already losing a division game at home in Week 1 to Tenn, a loss here would 'kill' the importance of that showdown. Anyway, Houston's past success against the Jags is all the motivation this team will need! LEGEND Play on the Jax Jaguars.
Good Luck...Larry
Here's the ATS Consultants Financial Selection
Welcome to the Football Financial Package. Don't forget about the Football Lock Club, which has won double digit units in 5 of the last 7 weeks! For more information on the Football Lock Club, Hockey, which has started or Early Bird Basketball call 1-800-772-1287.
Remember, when the lines are around 3, 4, 6, 7 and 10 to buy the 1/2 point
* 3 units on the OVER 45 Dallas Cowboys/Buffalo Bills, 8:30
Tony T from bluebook sports
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NFL PICKS --
Washington @ Green Bay (-3) --
Play Washington (+3) --
The Redskin secondary is the best in the NFC and Bret Favre will have trouble against it. This is the spot where the Packers poor running game will bite them in the butt as the talented secondary of the Redskins are going to sit back into coverage make it a long afternoon for Bret Favre. Detroit Lions have no running game and Kitna was rushed hard and only put 3 points on the board. Packers have no running game and the Redskins will pressure him into quick throws and hurries that could result in turnovers. Jason Campbell has played well and the Redskin ground game is clicking. The Redskins feature tight end Chris Cooley in their offense for clutch receptions to compliment their talented receiver corps and he has 3 TD’s on the season. Even if Randel El doesn’t play Kennan McCardell will step in and he did contribute last week with 2 receptions for 39 yards. Take Washington +3.
Tennessee @ Tampa Bay (-3) —
Play Tennessee (+3) --
The Bucs are hurting at running back as Michael Pittman is the latest casualty after Cadillac Williams was lost for the season. Can the 1 back offense be enough against Tennessee? I don’t think so because the Titan linebackers are playing great in pass coverage and Jeff Garcia will have trouble finding open receivers on Sunday. The Titan rushing game will keep the sticks moving and that means a tired Buc defense by the 4th quarter and after an early tug of war the Titans will get us the money by dominating time of possession and earning three and outs on defense. Tampa Bay will be 1 dimensional on Sunday and you know how I feel about 1-dimentional teams going against good defenses in the NFL. I BET AGAINST THEM!! Give me Tennessee and the 3 points even though I don’t think I will need the points.
Oakland @ San Diego (-10) —
Play Oakland (+10) --
Oakland’s running game and line blocking has greatly improved as they are averaging over 5 yards a carry and rushed for 299 yards against a Miami team in their last game who is dead last against the run. Dante Culpepper is under center replacing an injured Josh McCown and Dante is an upgrade in my opinion. The Chargers are the 27th ranked passing defense in the league so expect Culpepper to go after it using Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry. Curry had 10 receptions for 133 yards in week 1 but wasn’t featured as the Raiders were working the ground game. Last week LT only rushed for 67 yards on 21 carries and the Chargers were aided to victory by Bronco turnovers. Norv Turner has a horrible record as a big favorite in divisional battles laying over a field goal, as he is 1-11 ATS in this spot. Give me the Raiders +10 in this one.