Robert Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
6-Unit Play. Take #225 New England (-5.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month.
This line has skyrocketed since Tuesday and, frankly, I’m stunned by it. That being said, you can’t argue with New England’s success. They have much more experience in these types of games and Tom Brady has been unreal in his career on turf. This is the fourth team that the Pats have played that employs the 3-4 defense and the Pats have covered against all of them. New England is 27-10 ATS on the road, 9-1 ATS as a road favorite, and they have a host of other trends that tell me one thing: the Patriots win. The Cowboys looked awful on MNF and that win reminded me an awful lot of Chicago’s victory in Arizona last year. Of course, the following week the Bears got creamed at home by Miami. I’ll take Brady and Belichick in this one.
Also, there is a system play here: play against a home underdog off a short week that failed to cover on the road in its previous game. That system has hit at 71 percent over the past 10 years.
5-Unit Play. Take #224 Arizona (-4) over Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Note: Rate this as a 4.5-Unit Play if the line is -4.5 or higher. No play at -6.0 or above - unless David Carr doesn't play.
Never thought I’d live to see the day when Arizona was a solid home favorite play. But the bottom line is that their defense plays exceptional at home and they are facing an incredibly shaky Panthers squad. There is a specific system here – play against road teams with a winning record off an upset win – that has hit at 62.4 percent since 1983! David Carr is shaky enough when he’s healthy. But he’s been limited by injury and even though he’ll start on Sunday he isn’t 100 percent and we’re one rough hit away from a Vinny Testaverde sighting. Read that last sentence again and then walk confidently up to the window.
4.5-Unit Play. Take #219 Tennessee (+3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This one is automatic. The Titans are 13-3 ATS overall and 13-3 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons. Jeff Fisher is 14-1 SU against NFC South opponents and Tennessee’s dominating defense should control the Tampa Bay offense. The Bucs have picked up their three wins against teams with a combined 3-11 overall record. I’m not impressed. The Bucs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite and I see the Titans winning this one outright so consider that moneyline as well.
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #213 Minnesota (+11.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14) AND Take #210 Jacksonville (Pick) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Chicago-Minnesota game is going to be a battle, and we’ll take the points. Chicago is coming off a huge win on Sunday night and now they face a well-rested Vikings defense. There is a system that has hit at 69.2 percent since 1997 that is in play here and I think that in a low scoring game having the points will be to our advantage.
Jacksonville was swept by Houston last year and I do think that they have revenge on their minds. I know that’s a reach considering that Houston is 6-4 overall against the Jags. But Houston is still banged up and have had a ton of trouble running the ball. It isn’t going to get any easier against a brutal Jags rush defense.
2-Unit Play. Take #229 New Orleans (+7) over Seattle (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Over the past decade, teams that start the season 0-4 SU are a combined 23-11 ATS as an underdog in their fifth game of the season. Seven points are a lot to give up in any NFL game, and the Seahawks are just squirrelly enough to keep the Saints close. The Seahawks are 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite, 4-9-1 ATS against the NFC, and just 5-23 ATS in October games.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.0 New England at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This too is automatic. Games set at 50.0 or higher over the last three seasons are just 2-14 against the total. Granted, not too many of those games have featured two teams averaging 35 points per game, but this is one of those trends that goes against the grain and one that I will always play when given the opportunity. We are already 2-0 this year going ‘under’ on totals of 50+ so we’re going to go with it.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 37.5 Minnesota at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Vikings don’t have the weapons to take advantage of Chicago’s weakened defense and the Bears don’t have the strength up front to sustain drives against the Vikings front seven. I will be very surprised if this game sees more than 30 points and I don’t see more than three combined touchdowns.
2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.0 Miami at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Let me get this straight: a game where the starting quarterbacks are Cleo Lemon and Derek Anderson has one of the highest totals of the weekend? I don't think so. Cleveland has gone 'over' in all five of its games this year, but against the Patriots it took a fluke pick-six to push the game over the total. That's a red flag and I expect their streak to come to an end.
2-Unit Play. Take #227 Oakland (+10) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Raiders have lost seven straight against the Chargers. But if they’re not ready to compete with them now they likely never will be. This is a ton of points in a rivalry game and after an extra week of rest and preparation I think that Oakland is ready to go toe-to-toe with San Diego.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 43.5 New York Giants at Atlanta (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 15)
The Falcons are 15-0 against the total as an underdog in the week following a road game in which they got a first down in less than 25 percent of their offensive plays. Kind of a weird trend, eh? Some more tangible numbers are that the Giants are 8-2 against a total in this range, 7-1 as a favorite (5-0 as a road chalk), and the Falcons are 5-0 against the total as a home dog. Finally, the ‘over’ is 11-4-1 in Atlanta’s last 16 home games. The Falcons haven’t done much scoring this season, but they’ve also faced three of the top six scoring defenses (Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tennessee) in the league this year. Against the two average defenses they faced – Houston and Carolina – the Falcons averaged 23.0 points and went ‘over’ in both games.
Robert Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
6-Unit Play. Take #225 New England (-5.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month.
This line has skyrocketed since Tuesday and, frankly, I’m stunned by it. That being said, you can’t argue with New England’s success. They have much more experience in these types of games and Tom Brady has been unreal in his career on turf. This is the fourth team that the Pats have played that employs the 3-4 defense and the Pats have covered against all of them. New England is 27-10 ATS on the road, 9-1 ATS as a road favorite, and they have a host of other trends that tell me one thing: the Patriots win. The Cowboys looked awful on MNF and that win reminded me an awful lot of Chicago’s victory in Arizona last year. Of course, the following week the Bears got creamed at home by Miami. I’ll take Brady and Belichick in this one.
Also, there is a system play here: play against a home underdog off a short week that failed to cover on the road in its previous game. That system has hit at 71 percent over the past 10 years.
5-Unit Play. Take #224 Arizona (-4) over Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Note: Rate this as a 4.5-Unit Play if the line is -4.5 or higher. No play at -6.0 or above - unless David Carr doesn't play.
Never thought I’d live to see the day when Arizona was a solid home favorite play. But the bottom line is that their defense plays exceptional at home and they are facing an incredibly shaky Panthers squad. There is a specific system here – play against road teams with a winning record off an upset win – that has hit at 62.4 percent since 1983! David Carr is shaky enough when he’s healthy. But he’s been limited by injury and even though he’ll start on Sunday he isn’t 100 percent and we’re one rough hit away from a Vinny Testaverde sighting. Read that last sentence again and then walk confidently up to the window.
4.5-Unit Play. Take #219 Tennessee (+3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This one is automatic. The Titans are 13-3 ATS overall and 13-3 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons. Jeff Fisher is 14-1 SU against NFC South opponents and Tennessee’s dominating defense should control the Tampa Bay offense. The Bucs have picked up their three wins against teams with a combined 3-11 overall record. I’m not impressed. The Bucs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite and I see the Titans winning this one outright so consider that moneyline as well.
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #213 Minnesota (+11.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14) AND Take #210 Jacksonville (Pick) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Chicago-Minnesota game is going to be a battle, and we’ll take the points. Chicago is coming off a huge win on Sunday night and now they face a well-rested Vikings defense. There is a system that has hit at 69.2 percent since 1997 that is in play here and I think that in a low scoring game having the points will be to our advantage.
Jacksonville was swept by Houston last year and I do think that they have revenge on their minds. I know that’s a reach considering that Houston is 6-4 overall against the Jags. But Houston is still banged up and have had a ton of trouble running the ball. It isn’t going to get any easier against a brutal Jags rush defense.
2-Unit Play. Take #229 New Orleans (+7) over Seattle (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Over the past decade, teams that start the season 0-4 SU are a combined 23-11 ATS as an underdog in their fifth game of the season. Seven points are a lot to give up in any NFL game, and the Seahawks are just squirrelly enough to keep the Saints close. The Seahawks are 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite, 4-9-1 ATS against the NFC, and just 5-23 ATS in October games.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.0 New England at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This too is automatic. Games set at 50.0 or higher over the last three seasons are just 2-14 against the total. Granted, not too many of those games have featured two teams averaging 35 points per game, but this is one of those trends that goes against the grain and one that I will always play when given the opportunity. We are already 2-0 this year going ‘under’ on totals of 50+ so we’re going to go with it.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 37.5 Minnesota at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Vikings don’t have the weapons to take advantage of Chicago’s weakened defense and the Bears don’t have the strength up front to sustain drives against the Vikings front seven. I will be very surprised if this game sees more than 30 points and I don’t see more than three combined touchdowns.
2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.0 Miami at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Let me get this straight: a game where the starting quarterbacks are Cleo Lemon and Derek Anderson has one of the highest totals of the weekend? I don't think so. Cleveland has gone 'over' in all five of its games this year, but against the Patriots it took a fluke pick-six to push the game over the total. That's a red flag and I expect their streak to come to an end.
2-Unit Play. Take #227 Oakland (+10) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Raiders have lost seven straight against the Chargers. But if they’re not ready to compete with them now they likely never will be. This is a ton of points in a rivalry game and after an extra week of rest and preparation I think that Oakland is ready to go toe-to-toe with San Diego.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 43.5 New York Giants at Atlanta (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 15)
The Falcons are 15-0 against the total as an underdog in the week following a road game in which they got a first down in less than 25 percent of their offensive plays. Kind of a weird trend, eh? Some more tangible numbers are that the Giants are 8-2 against a total in this range, 7-1 as a favorite (5-0 as a road chalk), and the Falcons are 5-0 against the total as a home dog. Finally, the ‘over’ is 11-4-1 in Atlanta’s last 16 home games. The Falcons haven’t done much scoring this season, but they’ve also faced three of the top six scoring defenses (Minnesota, Jacksonville, Tennessee) in the league this year. Against the two average defenses they faced – Houston and Carolina – the Falcons averaged 23.0 points and went ‘over’ in both games.
ultra sports
5 dall
3 oak
3 mia
3 minn
3 kc
lem banker
cinn-----miami------tbay
ATS Financial
October 14, 2007
* 4 units on the Baltimroe Ravens (-9) over the St Louis Rams, 1:00
* 4 units on the OVER 42 1/2 Philadelphia Eagles/NY Jets, 1:00
* 3 units on the Cincinnati Bengals (-2 1/2) over the Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00
Brandon Lovell
10* MLB Diamondbacks +145
10* NFL Dolphins +4
10* NFL Dolphins - Browns UNDER 45
5* NFL Saints +6
Marc Lawence
Super System GOW : Dallas Cowboys
John Ryan
St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 14th, 1:00 P.M. EST EST
Ai Simulator 3-star graded play OVER Ravens/Rams – AiS shows a 73% probability that 37 or more points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-4 OVER since 1997. Play over with any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points and a game being played in October. Baltimore, not known for passing completes a high percentage when they do. Rams defense has had problems defending high completion pass teams noting that they are 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better since 1992. ST LOUIS is 22-10 OVER (+11.0 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt since 1992. Amazing too that Baltimore has gone 3-2, but 0-5 ATS with a 3-1-1 OVER mark. I think this reflects their ability to score points and also that their defense is NOT what it once was either. Rams will be able to move the ball and score points. I would not be surprised to see 50 scored in this game based on the AiS projections and matchups. Terry Holt, Bennett, and Bruce all have advantages in man coverage schemes. Rams will spread the field with 4 WR sets and I would also not be surprised to see a no huddle scheme as well. Frerotte is expected to play instead of the injured Bulger and it does not matter who starts – this game will go over.
Play on: Over
Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Sun) NFL Bengals Chiefs 3 Chiefs
(Sun) NFL Patriots Cowboys 5- Cowboys
(Sun) NFL Seahawks Saints 6- Seahawks
Lenny Stevens
20* KC
20* Philly
10* NE
10* minny
10* SD/oak Over
ASHTON GREWAL
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets – over 43
An extra week off is all Andy Reid needs to restore confidence in his club. The Eagles are 8-0 under Reid after their bye week and much of that has to do with an improved offensive game plan with an extra week’s worth of planning. Of course it won’t hurt to have running back Brian Westbrook and tight end L.J. Smith back on the field either. Each player is expected to suit up this weekend giving Donovan McNabb some much needed help.
There are whispers in New York that QB Chad Pennington may lose his starting job unless he comes up with a big game this week. I expect Pennington to come out firing in an attempt to prove the Jets are his team. Leon Washington is a game changer and should get more touches outside of his regular spot with special teams.
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks – under 43
The soft hiss you hear coming from Louisiana is the wind officially leaving the Saints’ sails. New Orleans mustered just 13 points at home in a huge divisional contest. Saints head coach Sean Payton doesn’t look like the offensive guru from a year ago now that Deuce McAllister isn’t gaining the tough yards between the tackles. Drew Brees is forcing throws (one TD pass to nine interceptions) because of a lifeless ground game.
The Seahawks were confused and clueless against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were shut out and thoroughly spanked by a Pittsburgh team missing key parts. Seattle’s worst news came after the game when it learned fullback Mack Strong was retiring immediately because of a herniated disk. Tailback Shaun Alexander now no longer has the benefit of a solid lead block before hitting the hole.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons – over 44
Bobby Petrino proved in his first five games as an NFL head coach that he’s not afraid to call a pass-heavy game. He’s trying to win on the strength of Joey Harrington’s arm (yikes!) instead of Warrick Dunn’s feet.
The Giants have a balanced offense with a nice running-back tandem in Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward. The return of a dominating ground game (186 rushing yards last weekend) should increase the amount of successful play action bombs to Plaxico Burress.
Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record: 9-6
Frank Rosenthal
208 KC+3 SB+
209 TEXANS UNDER 38 SB+
213 VIKES UNDER 38 SB+
216 JETS+4 SB+
220 BUCS-2.5 SB
221 SKINS+3.5 SB+
Wolkosky Milan
167-116-7 last fifty six days
5-2 Yesterday!
Today:
10* PACKERS -3
10* CHIEFS +3
10* COWBOYS +6
10* JETS +4
10* SAINTS +6½
10* JAGUARS -6½
10* MIN/CHI UNDER 37
Free: CIN/KC UNDER 43½
Tony Mathews
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Tony Mathews
Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
Selection: Miami Dolphins/Cleveland Browns Under 45 (-110)
Explanation: We expect a low-scoring game as the Miami Dolphins face-off against the Cleveland Browns in Sunday's NFL contest.
Quarterbacks Cleo Lemon versus Derek Henderson cannot pull off a high total contrary to what the oddsmaker seems to believe. It could be possible with a matchup of more competent players but not with these two.
Last week Miami welcomed back key player Zach Thomas which made a huge difference in the ability of their defense. This week they are expecting to have Channing Crowder back too; which makes for a much stronger, healthier Dolphins defense.
While Miami’s defense is improving, Cleveland’s offense is suffering. The Brown’s are ranked next to last in the NFL for time of possession and are short of starting tailback Jamal Lewis who is out due to injury.
Miami will be conservative away from home after having to replace injured quarterback Trent Green with Cleo Lemon. However they do have one weapon in running back Ronnie Brown. For this game, that means a lot of short passes and lots of running. The Dolphins have made it over 20 points just once this season.
Take the Miami Dolphins/Cleveland Browns Under 45!
Big Al
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championship - raiders
blue chip - dolphins
line movers - ravens
10 dime - titans/buccaneers under
offshore - redskins/packers under