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Last Post by the-hog 17 years ago

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the-hog

(@the-hog)

Posts: 3330

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Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

30 DIME

DALLAS COWBOYS

20 DIME

San Francisco 49ers

15 DIME 6-POINT TEASER

Colts and Under

To clarify - I want you to reduce the price you're laying with the Favorite (Indianapolis) and Inflate the Total so you take the Under there as well using the standard 6 points you get in a two-team teaser.

For example, if you''ve got the Colts at -10, you're reducing them to -4 in this scenario. And if you've got a total of 46, you're pushing it up to 52 and then taking the Under.

10 DIME

Cleveland Browns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Arizona Cardinals

5 DIME

Green Bay Packers

Detroit Lions

Free Pick - Eagles / Eagles-Giants OVER - (For analysis see daily video)

Posted : September 30, 2007 9:15 am

the-hog

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Joey Gaffney

Dallas Cowboys 10* GOY 13
Green Bay Packers 7* PP 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7* PP 4
Oakland Raiders 7* PP 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 7* PP 7

Game Units Line
San Diego Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs ** UNDER ** 7* PP 40

Posted : September 30, 2007 9:15 am

the-hog

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Posts: 3330

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Scott Rickenbach

1* (regular play) St Louis Rams (+) @ Dallas @ 1:00 ET -

The Rams are 0-3 on the season plus they have yet to cover a game. The Cowboys are 3-0 on the season and they have earned the cash in every single season game! No one wants the Rams here and that has been proven throughout the week as the money pours in on the Cowboys and the line continues to rise! We'll gladly grab the extra line value here and we'll tell you not to be surprised if the Rams do pull off the upset here. This is the perfect spot for the Cowboys to be flat and it's also the perfect spot for big dog St Louis to show they're better than what they've shown this season.

We are well aware of the issues that the Rams have had along their offensive line. That is an area of concern for St Louis right now but they are working hard to get use to life without some injured starters and they will improve with each week from here on out. The Rams offensive line is fully focused here after a great week of practice and look for the Cowboys defense to continue to struggle. Keep in mind that Rex Grossman and the Bears can make any defense look good! Dallas is certainly not "fired up" about this game as they have already had three big tests. They started off their season with a divisional win over the Giants, then took their first road trip to Miami and got another win. The Cowboys followed that up with a big road win at Chicago on Sunday night last week.

The Cowboys are still celebrating their first win in the underdog role and they also are still licking some wounds off of some very physical ballgames to begin their season. Dallas clearly does not see the Rams as a threat and that makes St Louis a very dangerous dog here. Keep in mind that the Rams have actually defended the pass quite well so far this season and the Cowboys will be content to just run the ball and try to simply notch a win and then move onto their next game which just happens to be another primetime affair with a Monday nighter on deck for Dallas. The Cowboys are definitely in a sandwich spot here and the Rams can take advantage.

The Rams get a key player back on defense this week with LB Pisa Tinoisamoa returning. On offense RB Steven Jackson will miss this game but RB Brian Leonard is more than ready to make a big statement in this game. In fact, the entire St Louis team is relishing this opportunity to take on "America's Team" in the role of a double digit underdog. With no one giving them a chance this is one of those games where the Rams could end up playing the role of underdog shocker! Rams coach Scott Linehan has openly discussed the fact that this has been a season of missed opportunities so far. He also feels the team has made improvement that all the hard work will eventually start leading to some wins. The Rams attitude is very positive here despite their 0-3 start. While the Rams may not get the outright win in Dallas their attitude is exactly what you want to see from a hungry double digit dog heading into a match-up with an overconfident big favorite. The Rams surpise many today, but not us! Play St Louis plus the points as a regular selection.

Posted : September 30, 2007 9:15 am

the-hog

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Robert Ferrringo

4.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.5 Philadelphia at New York Giants

I think this is a natural overreaction to the Eagles’ eruption last week. We do have two weak secondaries here but we also have two pretty hard-nosed football teams. The Giants are 1-6 against a total of 47.0 or higher in the Tom Coughlin era while the Eagles are 0-6 against the total in the same area under Andy Reid. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York, 4-1 in Philly’s last five divisional games, and 8-3-1 in New York’s last 12 home games (4-1-1 as a home dog). As we saw with both Cincinnati and Cleveland last week: it’s tough to go on the road after putting up amazing offensive numbers and find the same rhythm.

3-Unit Play. Take #206 Miami (-4) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

Oakland is 21-46-1 ATS in its last 68 games and 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. The favorite has covered six of eight in this series and I think that Daunte Culpepper’s turnover-prone ways will have a negative impact on this team. The Raiders do not travel well, especially to the East Coast, and they’re facing a prideful, veteran Miami club that’s desperate for something positive. Cam Cameron is used to game planning for Oakland with San Diego and I think he gets his first “W” as a head coach this weekend.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 39.0 Kansas City at San Diego (4 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)

Much like the Green Bay-Minnesota game, we have two very strong defenses and at least one pop-gun offense. Neither team has been able to run the ball effectively and neither has any wideouts that scare you. This is a divisional game, meaning both clubs are familiar with one another, and I think both of these conservative coaches will be looking to establish the run and play the field position game.

2.5 Unit Play. Take #217 New York Jets (-3.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

The Bills are certainly a live dog this weekend, but we’re going to go by the book here and take the healthier, better-coached team. Buffalo is simply out of warm bodies on defense and they are starting a rookie quarterback. The Jets are 9-0 ATS after a loss against the number, 5-1 ATS on the road, and 4-0-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Finally, teams coming off back-to-back games scoring less than nine points (Buffalo), playing a team that’s given up 40 or more combined points in its previous two games (NY), are 6-14 ATS over the past 10 years.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 Detroit (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

Finally, our long national nightmare is over: Rex Grossman has been benched in favor of Brian Griese. That’s great news for Bears fans and it should give the offense a boost. The trouble is, Chicago’s defense and offensive line is undergoing forced attrition and could be without two starters in the already depleted secondary this week. Detroit has won three of the last five meetings in this series at home and seven of the last at in Detroit have been decided by six points or less. Also, home dogs that surrendered 40+ points the previous week have covered the spread at a 64.8-percent clip over the past 21 years.

2-Unit Play. Take #208 Atlanta (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

The Falcons have been playing a bit better than their record would indicate and I think they get their first “W” this weekend. Houston is in a prime letdown spot after their tightly contested game against Indianapolis last week. Teams instilled as road favorites the week after facing the Colts are just 16-24 ATS. Also, the Texans have never been posted as this high of a road favorite. We have a reverse line movement and I think the Falcons win this one outright over a team that will still be without its top two wide receivers.

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 40.0 Baltimore at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)

An average of just 31.4 points has been scored in the last seven meetings in Cleveland, with the last four staying ‘under’ the total. The ‘under’ is 5-3 in the last eight meetings overall. Also, Cleveland is 3-8 against a total between 38.5 and 40.5 and the Ravens are 2-4 vs. this range on the road. Cleveland could be without Kellen Winslow this week, and I don’t see Jamal Lewis fooling his old team with those old legs. The Browns have been sailing ‘over’ lately, but Baltimore is 8-18-2 against the total on the road (2-7-1 as road chalk) and 7-16-4 against the AFC. We’re above some key numbers and I expect a rather sloppy, controlled game out of these teams.

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take ‘Over’ 30.0 New York Jets at Buffalo (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1) AND Take ‘Under’ 38.0 Green Bay at Minnesota (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)

The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the last five overall meetings and 6-0-1 in the last seven in Buffalo. The Jets have been an ‘over’ machine, sailing the total in 10 of their last 12 divisional games and in 13 of their past 18 conference games. I think the Bills are going to pull out all the stops this weekend, throwing the ball down the field to Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish, and I think after two straight poor offensive performances against two of the better defenses in the league the Bills will bust out with a 17-23 point outburst. Don’t be nervous if this one starts out slowly – once the floodgates open points will be coming fast and furious.

With Green Bay-Minnesota, I think we have two of the top five defenses in the league right now and on Minnesota’s side a very unstable quarterback situation. The Vikings have seen an average of just 29 points in their first three games and the ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings. I think points are going to be tough to come by and that Minnesota will control both lines of scrimmage. If we can avoid any special teams or defensive scores I don’t think the defenses will surrender more than six touchdowns

Posted : September 30, 2007 9:16 am

the-hog

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Ats Lock Club

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Detroit +3.......................8 Units

Over 41 1/2 Pitt/Arz........7 Units

Chargers -11 1/2..............6 Units

Posted : September 30, 2007 9:16 am

the-hog

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Posts: 3330

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Topic starter

WILD BILL
Oakland +4 (1 unit)
Over 38 1/2 Atlanta-Houston (1 unit)
Browns +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Detroit +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Green Bay -1 1/2 (3 units)
Over 45 1/2 Dallas-St Louis (2 units)
Buffalo +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Carolina -2 1/2 (1 unit)
Arizona +6 1/2 (1 unit)
Chiefs +11 1/2 (1 unit)
Eagles -2 1/2 (5 units)
Patriots -6 1/2 (2 units)

Posted : September 30, 2007 9:16 am

the-hog

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Daniel Perkins ATS Advice (TopTen)

Daniel Perkins NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH!
St. Louis(0-3) @ Dallas(3-0)
1:00pm EST
Line: O/U 45 (BetED)

There really is not much to say about this game. The total is not set at 60 because the Rams have hardly scored this season. Stephen Jackson will not play for the Rams this week which will save some time on the clock as St. Louis will have to rely strictly on the air game. The Rams are listed as the 3rd best pass defense in the league, only because they have played Tampa Bay, Carolina and San Francisco, teams who rely on running the ball. Dallas is running the 3-4 defense to perfection. Dallas has a strong pass rush with a big linebacking middle. Roy Williams protects the deep pass at safety and should generate an interception or two this game. Once the defense turns the ball over the St. Louis defense will be on the field. St. Louis is giving up the 27th most rushing yards per game, watch out for Julius Jones this week. With Tony Romo connecting on passes left and right to Owens, Crayton and Jason Witten the Rams defense is in trouble and the scoreboard is in for a lot of points. This is a great spot to play the over, Dallas can put up points at will against a week defense while St. Louis will have to go to their star recievers and not worry about running the ball.
Pick: Over 45

Daniel Perkins SECRET SUNDAY UPSET!:
New York Jets(1-2) @ Buffalo Bills(0-3)
1:00pm EST
Line: Home +3.5

J.P Losman took an elbow to the knee and is out indefinitely. This makes way for Terrance Edwards a rookie out of Los Gatos. He may be in a good spot facing a Jets defense ranked 27th in the league. This week the Bills return home where they lost to Denver 15-14 due to a last second field goal in week 1. However, the Bills rank last in Total Offense, Rushing, Passing, Points Score, Rush D, Pass D and are giving up over 26 points per game. The Jets offense appears to be heading in the right direction, Chad Pennington returned, Jericho Cothrey and Laverneus Coles are catching passes and Thomas Jones is rushing the ball well enough to keep the attack balanced. The Buffalo Bills play good football at home. In their past 3 home losses they have only been -5 in scoring. They lost 15-14 Denver, 30-29 to Tennessee and 24-21 to San Diego dating back to last season. The Jets are a big public favorite this week so the line may go up even more by Sunday. The Bills will keep this one close and may even win the game outright. Take the Bills plus the points.
Pick: Bills +3.5

Daniel Perkins PROFESSIONAL PICK: GB@MIN:
Green Bay(3-0) @ Minnesota(1-2)
1:00pm EST
Line: Home +2

A big division rivalry takes place this week in the Metrodome this week. The Vikings are coming off a tough 3 point loss on the road to KC while the Packers are coming off their third win in a row beating up on the Chargers. However, Green Bay may be in for trouble this week unless they can pull out another Sam Gado like they did last season. Both their 1st and 2nd string running backs are out this week. The team head coach Mike McCarthy said there is no indication on who to start and they will have to rely on the pass heavy this week. Minnesota is giving up around 240 yards per game and is ranked 19th overall for pass yards. They have the 12th ranked defense and have only allowed 67.3 yards on the ground per game. Don’t be surprised if that number is less then 50 yards this week. Chester Taylor is going to return this week and should split time with Adrian Peterson this week taking the load off Kelly Holcomb who will start instead of Tarvaris Jackson this week. The Green Bay offense is in for a shock this week against the Minnesota secondary. Not being able to run the ball will make Brett Farve vulnerable in the pocket and turnover prone. Take the Vikings at home this week plus the 2 points.
Pick: Vikings +2

Posted : September 30, 2007 9:16 am

the-hog

(@the-hog)

Posts: 3330

Famed Member

Topic starter

Daniel Perkins ATS Advice (TopTen)

Daniel Perkins NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH!
St. Louis(0-3) @ Dallas(3-0)
1:00pm EST
Line: O/U 45 (BetED)

Daniel Perkins SECRET SUNDAY UPSET!:
New York Jets(1-2) @ Buffalo Bills(0-3)
1:00pm EST
Line: Home +3.5

Daniel Perkins PROFESSIONAL PICK: GB@MIN:
Green Bay(3-0) @ Minnesota(1-2)
1:00pm EST
Line: Home +2

Posted : September 30, 2007 9:17 am

the-hog