doc's
5 * SD -11
3* sf +2
2* cinc +7
Greg Roberts:
4* - ATLANTA +3
4* - ARIZONA +6
3* - CLEVELAND +4
3* - MINNESOTA +1
3* - DENVER +10
OPINION: SAN DIEGO
OPINION: DALLAS
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons Sep 30 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
Reason: Play on the Falcons at 1:00 ET. The Matt Schaub return-to-Atlanta side story is NOT the key to this game. Schaub's off to an impressive start and so are the Texans, at 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. Meanwhile, the Falcons are one of five teams to have opened 0-3 in '07. However, the Falcons will actually match up well versus the Texans, who have key injuries on the offensive side of the ball. WR Andre Johnson is Schaub's main target and will miss for the second straight week. Worse yet, rookie WR/KR Jacoby Jones is also out. In the backfield, RB Ahman Green is out, leaving a less than 100% Ron Dayne or maybe only Samkon Gado. While there is little doubt that HC Gary Kubiak has this team turned around (I've played and won with the Texans in TWO of the first three weeks), the team is just too beat up! The Falcons played with a lot of emotion last week versus Carolina (first home game), actually out-gaining the Panthers 442-313. Joey Harrington completed 31-of-44 for 361 yards with two TDs and no INTs. While the Falcons haven't shown the ability to run the ball like they did last year, RBs Dunn and Norwood give Atlanta a huge advantage over Houston's depleted running game. I doubt I'll play on the Falcons too often this year but let's remember that while the Texans are "on the way up," they have still won just THREE of their last 17 road games. Here, Houston has been installed as a road favorite, for the first time since the team entered the NFL in 2002. Atlanta is my 25* Underdog GOY.
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals Sep 30 2007 4:15PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The Steelers offense appears to be doing just fine with Ken Whisenhunt (former OC and now head coach for Arizona). Pittsburgh has routed Cleveland, Buffalo and San Francisco, winning each game by a margin of 21 points or more. The Steelers have averaged 198.3 YPG rushing (5.5 per) while averaging 32.3 PPG. Meanwhile, the D has yielded a league-low 26 points and ranks second in the NFL with an average of 244.3 YPG. Under Whisenhunt, the Cards are 1-2 with each game being decided by three points. They lost in Week 1 in the final minute at San Francisco, blew a 17-0 lead at home to Seattle before winning on a late FG (23-20) and LW trailed at Baltimore 23-6 entering the 4th quarter. With Warner replacing Leinart at QB, the Cards tied it at 23-all, but lost on a FG on the game's final play. Big Ben's back in form for Pitt (102.9 rating with a 6-1 ratio) and the Cards' pass D has allowed 62.5% completions and has yet to intercept a pass (104 attempts). Leinart will start but Warner is expected to see action. What does it all mean? Well, Arizona will find running the ball tough, as Pitt last allowed a 100-yard rusher 28 games ago. Arizona ran for 161 yards in week 1 but has averaged just 96.5 YPG the last two (Pitt is allowing 79.7 per TY). I like Arizona's grittiness and I think they'll play well. The Cards won't however, slow Pittsburgh's balanced attack too much (Parker leads NFL in YR with 368), so expect a high scoring game. Las Vegas Insider on Az/Pit Over.
Guaranteed Pick: Jimmy The Moose
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers Sep 30 2007 4:15PM
Prediction: San Diego Chargers
Reason: Both teams are 1-2 SU on the season. The Chiefs have looked horrible on offense averaging a pathetic 8.7 PPG. Their D has held the opposition to an average of 16.7 PPG but this is an all around bad team. Larry Johnson can't get the running game going and it won't happen on Sunday in San Diego. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and in their last 7 games vs. AFC opponents. In their last 5 games as a road dog they are 1-4 at the window. The Chargers have struggled in their last 2 games, both road losses. In their last 18 games following a SU loss the Chargers are a money making 13-3-2 ATS. In their last 20 games vs. AFC West opponents they are 13-4-3 at the window. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the clubs and the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 visist to San Diego. Look for LT to have his best game of the season in a big win vs. KC. Play on the Chargers -.
Wildcat 10 Phil over
Maingate 15 Arz over
TOP PLAY : San Diego Chargers
THE BIG PLAY CLUB (Don Wagner's place)
THE BIG PLAY CLUB CONSENSUS PLAY...This is a solid 67% situation over the last 6 seasons in both college and the NFL.
This year : 1-0 Top NFL / 5-1 All NFL
TOP PLAY : San Diego Chargers