CKO
10 EAST CAROLINA over Boise State
Late Score Forecast: EAST CAROLINA 35 - Boise State 34
Hawaii Bowl at Honolulu, Hawaii (Sunday, December 23, 2007)
As a representative of the wild & wooly wars in the C-USA this season, East Carolina certainly no stranger to shootouts. The Pirate defense, big and deep up front to start the season, suffered lots of attrition, but is now healthier after several weeks off. And Skip Holtz’ Pirate offense is capable of scoring against all but the best defenses. While ECU is 6-1 as a double-digit underdog, note that Boise’s magic often disappears when the Broncos lay double figures away from their blue-carpeted home (3-11 in that role). Boise players were superfocused for LY’s Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma; this year they are the “hunted,” with HC Peterson promising they’re going to enjoy what the islands have to offer.
Vegas Hotsheet
HAWAII BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
341 E Carolina 30
342 Boise St 45
Boise St. -10½
Free Pick: Over 70
Dr. Bob
Strong Opinion
Boise St. (-10.5) 41 East Carolina 25 (at Hawaii Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-07 Boise State lost to the only two better than average teams that they played this year, dropping road games to Washington and Hawaii, but the Broncos won their other 9 games against Division 1A teams by an average score of 47-19 while winning 8 of those 9 games by double-digit margins. East Carolina may be 7-5, but don’t mistake the Pirates for a better than average team. East Carolina out-scored their opponents by an average of 0.4 points per game while playing a schedule that was 4.5 points worse than average. The Pirates do have one quality win, a 52-38 home win over CUSA champ Central Florida, but it took a +5 in turnover margin to win that game.
The Pirates are decent offensively, averaging 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack, and that unit should move the ball at a decent rate against a Boise State defense that was 0.1 yppl better than average in 11 games against Division 1A opponents (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). It’s the other side of the ball where the Pirates have their problems and where they’ll be overmatched in this game. East Carolina allowed 5.7 yppl this season to a collection of teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense doesn’t have much of a chance to stop a balanced Boise State attack that averaged 6.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Boise State feasted on worse than average defensive teams and should score a good number of points in this game.
Enhancing Boise’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game is their great special teams, which once against ranks among the best in the nation and consistently supplies the Broncos with good field position while pinning their opponents deep in their end of the field. A team that out-gains their opponents 6.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl, as Boise did in their 11 games against 1A competition would normally out-score their opponents by about 12 points per game, but Boise State out-scored their 11 Division 1A opponents by 20.3 points per game in part because of their incredible special teams. East Carolina has mediocre special teams and that should be the difference between a competitive game and a potential blowout.
My math model favors Boise State by 17 points in this game but I’ll resist making Boise State a Best Bet because East Carolina is 15-4 ATS as an underdog under coach Skip Holtz (although 0-1 as a Bowl underdog). My math model also predicts a total of 65.3 points and the under looks like a decent play too. I did my profile analysis on this game, which basically projects scores based on how well each team has played against teams with similar statistical characteristics (using regression analysis on each facet of the opponent’s stats – run offense, pass defense, etc). The profile analysis of Boise State suggests that they’d total 66 points against a team with East Carolina’s level of offense and defense while the profile analysis on ECU projects a total of 63 total points against a team with Boise State’s statistical profile. Either way, the games is likely to go under the 70 point total.
I’ll consider Boise State a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less and I’ll lean with the under at 69 points or higher.
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Football
12/23/07 (325) NY GIANTS at (326) BUFFALO
Anyone following my plays this season has probably realized that I have a good read on
when the Giants will or won’t make for a good play. After Sunday night’s loss to Washington, most of the football world has turned against the G-Men, figuring they’ll do anything they can to give up their wildcard spot. The way I look at this game against Buffalo though, it is the Bills who will be the much more deflated of the two teams. They lost a huge game last week, eliminating any chance at making the postseason. Plus, if you compare the raw strength indicators of these teams, you’ll find two different level clubs. In point differential, New York is +0.5 PPG, Buffalo -5.5. In StatFox Outplay Factor Rating, New York is -0.1, Buffalo is -4.0. The Giants need to win, they play well on the road, and are the better team. They’ll get their win here.
Play: NY Giants -3
12/23/07 (331) WASHINGTON at (332) MINNESOTA
Two straight solid performances by Joe Gibbs’ club has me believing that they could have what it takes to make the postseason yet. The team that took the fififield on Sunday night in New York was a focused bunch that seemed to be channeling its emotion from the whole Sean Taylor tragedy into positive energy. With that extra motivation in mind, the Redskins will head to Minnesota with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance.
Speaking of balance, I believe favored teams have to possess it on offense. Minnesota has still not shown the ability to move the ball through the air and in big games, that weakness tends to come to the forefront. If you need one more thing, perhaps this trend illustrating the Skins’ prowess as a road underdog might do it. WASHINGTON is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The average score
was WASHINGTON 20.0, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 1*). This one goes down to the wire. I’ll take the points.
Play: Washington +7
12/23/07 (339) TAMPA BAY at (340) SAN FRANCISCO
Ok. Now that everyone is convinced of how much San Francisco is turned around because it was able to beat a weak-minded Cincinnati club, it is the perfect time to fade the 49ers. One game does not make a season, and had it not been for that upset on Saturday, we are probably staring at a line in the -9 to -9.5 range for Tampa Bay. The Bucs are playing solid football, no disputing that. In fact, defensively, they have only had one “blip on the radar”, in their last nine games, that coming at home against Washington when they allowed 412 yards but benefitted from six turnovers. Other
than that, opponents have been lucky to sniff 250 yards of offense. Now, with the opponent being the league’s #32 offense, a team with numbers so dreadful I can’t recall similar, I would expect the Bucs to come up with a big effort again. Other than being on the road, I don’t see any reason why Tampa shouldn’t manhandle the 49ers the same way they did the Falcons.
Play: Tampa Bay -7
Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Sunday, December 23rd - 8:00 PM - (341) E CAROLINA vs. (342) BOISE ST
On paper, this game seems like a potential mismatch. Boise State, led by star RB Ian Johnson, had another stellar 10 win season. As usual, they were dominant at home on the “Smurf Turf”, logging a 7-0 season. Offensively, even with first year starter Taylor Tharp, they were very efficient, scoring 42.7 PPG and gaining 477 YPG. East Carolina finished 2nd in Conference USA’s East division with a 6-2 record. Like most of the other Conference USA teams this year, they were plagued by defensive problems (436 YPG allowed). Despite the mismatch in certain stat categories, there are reasons for hope for the Pirates. First, they are double digit underdogs in a December Bowl game – a winning system historically. Second, Boise State is clearly not the same dominant team
on the road as they are at home. The Broncos were just 3-2 away from home, scoring 9 fewer PPG than their season average. Third, the WAC conference was down this season, especially at the bottom of the conference. WAC teams were an awful 1-18 in non-conference road games, worst in the nation. Finally, Boise State returns to the scene of their biggest disappointment this season – a loss to Hawaii with the WAC title on the line. The Hawaii Bowl has to be viewed as a disappointment and a letdown is certainly possible.
Play: E Carolina +10.5
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Hoops
12/23/2007 (501) LA LAKERS at (502) NEW YORK
A Sunday matinee affair brings Kobe and the Lakers to Manhattan, where they will surely be favored by a signififificant margin against the wretched Knicks. However,
that in itself is cause for concern for those hoping to back Los Angeles: LA LAKERS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 105.1, OPPONENT 104.2 - (Rating = 1*). Giving up 105.6 PPG on the road, the Lakers don’t
make for a real strong road favorite. In addition, the Knicks have seemingly always embraced the chance to fill it up with the higher scoring teams in the league: NEW YORK is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996. The average score was NEW YORK 100.1, OPPONENT
102.2 - (Rating = 2*). The Knicks swept the Lakers a year ago. It’s tough to see them getting blown out in this one.
Play: New York +7.5
12/23/2007 (511) VIRGINIA TECH at (512) WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest was projected to be one of, if not THE, worst team in the ACC this season. Noting their shooting woes in the early going, there’s nothing I’ve seen yet to believe that is still not the case. Now in the conference opener for both clubs, why not fade the worst team? The Deacons are shooting 40% from the floor, less than 30% from the field, and 63.5% from the line, all figures ranked in the bottom 25% of all teams. Their StatFox Outplay Factor Rating as of Monday was +3.3. Tech’s meanwhile, was +12.6, sharing the same won-lost mark against a schedule that rated an average of six points better on the StatFox Power Rating scale. Tech’s shoots 46.6% on offense and holds opponents to 39.4% on defense, thus earning the descriptive “excellent team”. WAKE FOREST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
Play: Virginia Tech +1.5
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PPP
Hawaii Bowl
5*E.Carolina
NFL
5*New Orleans Over
4*Cincinnati
4*San Fransisco
3*Detroit
3*Tennessee
3*Jacksonville under
3*Cincinnati over
Dave Malinsky
6* Cincinnati
Ben Burns
Bengals
49ers
Raiders/Jags under
Phenom (16-11-1)
Seattle
Indy
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
aAce-Ace / Allan Eastman
2 Atl +10'
2 NO -3
SPORTS MEMO - BOWL GAME ( ** 3-0 YESTERDAY !!!)
Boise State vs. East Carolina +10.5 O/U 71 Recommendation: East Carolina
While the Boise State victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl was nearly a season ago, the perceived value of the Broncos in the marketplace based on that incredible result remains inflated. This remains the case even though indications are that BoiseState is no where near as strong as a season ago. Consider that when Boise State went to Hawaii to battle for the WAC title, the two programs were ranked as having the two weakest schedules in all of college Football. The best team Boise State faced this season outside of its game against Hawaii was a 4-7 Washington Huskies team. Not coincidentally, Boise State’s two losses came in those two games. Their strongest win on the season was against an eight-win Fresno State team. Overall on the season Boise State feasted on weak competition and inflated its stat line against the absolute dregs of college football. In five games against BCS competition and bowl teams, Boise State outscored the competition by only eight points, posting a 178-170 cumulative score while going just 2-3 against the spread. In its other seven games, the Broncos outscored their opposition 335-73 for an average margin of 37.4 points and a 5-2 spread record. Because of this success against inferior competition the decline of this team has largely gone unnoticed. East Carolina had a non-descript 7-5 season that saw the Pirates struggle against a very strong non-conference slate that included four BCS opponents: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, North Carolina and NC State. In the conference season East Carolina put together a strong showing going 6-2 while winning six out of its last seven conference games. In those six wins they scored an average of 44 points per game. East Carolina used the two-headed quarterback system with quarterbacks Patrick Pinkney and Robert Kaas. The pair proved to be a quality tandem throwing for nearly 2,400 yards with 19 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Running back Chris Johnson balanced the offense with 1,200 yards behind a stellar 5.8 yards per carry. The Boise offensive numbers are impressive, but I discount them significantly because of the schedule strength. Head coach Chris Petersen is regarded as a top big game coach because of his team’s great showing a season ago, but East Carolina head coach Skip Holtz has proved to be a strong tactician and has had his teams ready and prepared in both the role of the superior and inferior team. During his tenure at East Carolina, the Pirates are 25-10 overall against the spread and 6-1 in the role of a double-digit underdog. So while conventional wisdom might have Boise State rated as the better of these two teams, we are not convinced. The home field advantage and a tremendously weak schedule have been factors more than anything else in any Boise success this season. Those two factors are not issues in this match-up. The overall team speed and athleticism is equal in these programs as neither team is a pipeline to the NFL. With so much being equal we’d expect in a neutral site game that themore battle tested, equally talented, big underdog is the value play
ANDY ISKOE
Hawaii Bowl
4 Star Boise State over East Carolina
WILD BILL
BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR:
Over 70 1/2 East Carolina-Boise St (10 units) ECU on the road can't stop anyone and Boise knows this field well and also very potent offense. Boise 49 ECU
JOHN CAMBELL FROM COVERS: 1-4 SO FAR
East Carolina vs. Boise State (-10 ½, 71)
Hope you liked your recent trip to Hawaii, Boise State. Now turn around and go back. I really like how tough East Carolina plays, but that is one long trip and the Pirates are probably going to want to enjoy it when they get there.
Pick: Boise State -10 ½
TED SEVRANSKY
GAME: Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Dec 23, 2007 1:00PM
REASON FOR PICK: Tony Dungy?s track record as the Colts head coach is remarkably consistent. This is Dungy?s sixth year on the job in Indianapolis. In his five previous seasons, the Colts have been just where they are now ? a team with double digit wins, tuning up and getting healthy for a playoff run. And in those five previous seasons, the Colts ATS mark is remarkably similar in their final two regular season games: 0-2 ATS every single year. That puts Dungy and his Colts on an 0-10 ATS run in the final two games of the season heading into their game against Houston on Sunday, a trend that I fully expect to continue.
Dungy has stated that he won?t be resting his starters this week. That most assuredly doesn?t mean that Indy is going to have a full team of starters in the game on either side of the football when the pointspread outcome is likely to be determined in the fourth quarter. While Dungy has said that he won?t be resting healthy starters, he?s also said that with the Colts locked into the #2 seed in the AFC, the myriad of banged up and injured Colts are not likely to see much playing time here. That list of banged up players is remarkably long, including defensive end Robert Mathis, defensive tackle Raheem Brock, offensive tackle Ryan Diem, cornerback Antoine Bethea, and many, many others. They?ll join Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney and many others on the sidelines for this game. And, should the Colts take a solid early lead, don?t be surprised to see Peyton Manning sit in favor of Jim Sorgi in the second half. Indy will not be playing with full intensity this week.
That most assuredly is not the case for the Houston Texans. Gary Kubiak?s squad is sitting at .500 in the toughest division in football, with a chance to earn the first winning record in the six year existence of the franchise. Yes, Houston was eliminated from playoff contention last week, but all signs point towards a concerted effort in Indy on Sunday. With the Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson QB/WR duo making big plays every week and Ron Dayne continuing to grind out tough yards on the ground, look for the Texans to keep this one close throughout, with a chance at the outright upset. Take the Texans.
Texans
T. Striker's AFC Absolute Roast - 26-10 ATS Sweet Situation!
#320 INDIANAPOLIS (-) over Houston at 1 PM EST
With each team's 2007 fate already determined, look for Indianapolis to put a higher level of importance on this division contest than Houston. Back in 2005, the Colts rested a ton of starters in their last two regular season games and paid the price in the first round of the playoffs when Pittsburgh strolled into Indy and pulled off the upset. Colts head Coach Tony Dungy won't let his team do that again!
This is actually a great spot to fade Houston too. Since 1983, road teams are a soft 52-72 ATS provided they enter off back-to-back straight up underdog wins. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up win, this situation dips to a dismal 21-40-1 ATS. With those two parameters applied and our visitor off a non-division game, this system crashes to a shocking 10-26 ATS. The Texans apply to all thee parameters of this angle.
On foreign soil coming off a straight up victory, Houston has struggled anyway notching a soft 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS mark including a nasty 0-7 SU and ATS in this set provided the Texans were priced as a pup of +1' or more last. Meanwhile, QB Peyton Manning and the Horseshoes have been at their best coming off a momentum building win of seven points or more posting a solid 34-20 ATS record in their next game.
Indy has posted a perfect 5-0 SU mark at home against Houston and has won those AFC South battles by an average of 18.6 points per game. The first playoff game for the Colts is still four weeks away. The Horseshoes can't take their foot off the gas now. Take Indianapolis! Thank you and best of luck, T. S.
L. Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 16 (9-2 run with NFL Insiders the L10 weeks!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:15 ET.
It's been a long and hard fall for the Ravens this year, after going 13-3 in 2006. Neither McNair nor Boller could stay healthy at QB and neither played well when given the chance. The once-proud defense has been decimated by injuries and the Ravens enter this game on a seven-game losing streak. Baltimore is 4-10 on the year and owns an NFL-worst 2-12 ATS mark. The team gave its all in Week 13 on MNF, losing a controversial 27-24 game to the Pats. Seemingly, the Ravens are done, as they followed that game by getting pounded by the Colts in Week 14 and then losing to the previously winless Dolphins last week. heading into this game, Troy Smith gets his first-ever start at QB and the defensive injuries continue to mount. Baltimore has committed 36 turnovers and owns a league-worst minus-18 turnover ratio. The Seahawks must be embarrassed by last week's effort at Carolina, losing 13-10 and ending a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Granted the team had just clinched the NFC West the previous week but the team was a "no-show" against the Panthers. With Seattle still battling Tampa Bay for the NFC's 3rd seed (both are 9-5), expect a much better effort here, in the team's final home game. Hasselbeck has had an excellent season, posting an 11-3 ratio during the team's five-game winning streak. His ratio is 16-5 at home and 25-10 overall on the year. Baltimore's pass D held opposing QBs to a 63.4 rating LY (16-28 ratio) but this year opposing QBs have a 20-13 ratio and a collective rating of 89.5! Hasselbeck will have little trouble against this outfit and that may also open up some running lanes. Seattle's won its last four home games (4-0 ATS) by an average margin of almost 20 points and Sunday easily takes care of a Baltimore team which is "counting the days" until Dec 30! Las Vegas Insider on the Sea Seahawks. Good Luck...L
S. Spritzer's 25* NFL Sunday Smackdown! *27-16, 63%!
I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.
Tennessee continues to try and keep their playoff hopes alive. Good news this week, because the right matchup comes to town. The Jets' front seven has not fared too well against the run all season and the defense ranks 30th in the league against the run. This means Tennessee's offense should be at their best. They'll be able to run right at the Jets' defense effectively, which means Vince Young will be able to play-action and also use his legs to attack this defense. It will be David Harris' job to mirror Lendale White on Sunday, which means he'll get lost when Young does use play-action and also in the short passing game. Defensively, the Titans have been an absolute beast at home. They're allowing just 184 passing yards per game with 10 interceptions and just six TDs allowed. Tennessee has 31 sacks on the season, with a whopping 24 coming on their home turf. They'll take on a banged-up Jets' offense, and a team that put everything they had into last week's game against New England. We've seen how poorly teams have done the week after playing the Pats this season. I expect more of the same this week resulting in a three touchdown win by the Titans. I'm laying the points with Tennessee. Thanks! GL! S.
Norm Hitzges
NFL
Triple Play
Seattle -10 vs Baltimore
Double Play
Tennessee -9 vs NY Jets
San Diego -8.5 vs Denver
Single Plays
Dallas -10.5 vs Carolina
Dallas/Carolina Under
Detroit -4.5 vs Kansas City
Cleveland -2 vs Cincinnati
New England -22 vs Miami
Buffalo +2 vs NY Giants
Jacksonville -13 vs Oakland
Tennessee/NY Jets Under
Buffalo/NY Giants Under
East Carolina +10.5 vs Boise State
Point Train 2007 Football
10-UNIT NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR
OVER 47,NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -vs-Philadelphia Eagles
Rating: 10 units
OVER 47 Philadelphia at New Orleans at 1:00 pm EST The offensive explosions of teams like New England, Dallas, Green Bay and Cleveland have taken away from New Orleans being every bit as good on offense as it was last year. After averaging just 12.8 ppg in their first four games, the Saints have averaged 28 ppg in their last 10 games, scoring fewer than 23 points just once in their last eight games. Drew Brees has once again been the catalyst, rebounding from a slow start to complete 76% of his passes for 303.1 passing ypg, 20 touchdowns and just five interceptions in his last eight games. He looks no different than the Brees that was an MVP candidate last year. Helping Brees has been a rejuvenated running game led by Aaron Stecker. Since replacing Reggie Bush as the starter two games ago, Stecker has totaled 195 rushing yards and two scores. The Saints offense has needed to be great this year just to stay competitive as the defense has struggled all year to stop the opposition. New Orleans is 27th in the NFL in yards allowed per game and has allowed 23 or more points in eight of its 14 games. Philly’s offense hasn’t been great this year but it doesn’t need to be against New Orleans. The Eagles own one of the league’s most potent offensive weapons in Brian Westbrook, who has tallied nearly 2,000 yards of total offense this year. His production has played a big role in Philadelphia averaging 350.2 ypg this year, good for eighth in the NFL. This series has a history of high-scoring affairs with each of the last four meetings and six of the last eight going over the total. The last four games have averaged 49.8 total ppg and this game should exceed that. With no weather to disrupt offenses, this game will see plenty of points early and often. This game could easily go over by the end of the third quarter. Take the OVER between New Orleans and Philly.
INTERCONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Rating: 3 units
SEATTLE (-) over Baltimore at 4:15 pm EST The Seahawks laid an absolute clunker in their 13-10 loss at Carolina last week. But their clunker couldn’t even come close to comparing to Baltimore’s. The Ravens fell 22-16 at the previously winless Dolphins last week and look as though they’ve packed in for the season. Since blowing it in a loss to New England two weeks ago, Baltimore has looked completely flat in losing by 24 points at home to Indianapolis and at Miami a week ago. The Miami loss dropped Baltimore’s ATS record to 0-7 on the road for the year. The Ravens have lost through seven games by 11.6 ppg. Seattle, meanwhile, has its division sewn up but the third seed in the playoffs is still up in the air. The Seahawks are tied with Tampa Bay at 9-5 and need a win to secure the third seed. They are 6-1 (5-2 ATS) at home this year with those six wins coming by 16 ppg. Ride with Seattle.
TOTAL DOMINATION
UNDER 39,SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -vs-Baltimore Ravens
Rating: 3 units
UNDER 39 Baltimore at Seattle at 4:15 pm EST This total is based almost completely on Seattle shutting down a putrid Baltimore offense. Baltimore’s offense is awful as is but it will now have rookie Troy Smith making his first professional start under center. That doesn’t bode well when going up against a tough Seattle defense. The Seahawks are second in the NFL with 41 sacks on the year, led by Pro Bowl defensive end Patrick Kerney, who has 13.5 sacks. Everybody saw how Smith handles pressure in last season’s college football championship game: not well. That pass rush will be even more ferocious in this game, which will severely limit what an already limited Baltimore offense can do. Smith’s inexperience will allow the Seahawks to crowd the line of scrimmage to shut down running back Willis McGahee. McGahee has had a solid season but is slowing down with the season coming to a close. He has averaged just 3.7 ypc over his last four games and will find little running room with eight guys in the box in this game. The Seahawks might score their share of points but they won’t score enough for this total to overcome Baltimore’s complete lack of offense. This game stays well UNDER the total.
Teddy Covers
20* East Carolina +11
NFL
Packers -
Texans +
Bills +
Titans -
all reg plays