MTI
4'-Star Kansas City +4' over DETROIT -- The Lions were 6-2 and are now 6-8 and out of the playoffs. They have had so many tough losses and near upsets that they simply can't have much left for this one. The Chiefs have a young QB that needs work an a rookie wide receiver that would love to build his numbers. Kansas City should perform well here as they are 6-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date, covering by an average of 9.2 ppg. The Lions have averaged only 26:46 of possession time this season -- and this includes an overtime session vs the Vikings.
Last week, the Chiefs' defense played well when the Titans were deep in their territory. Tennessee was a very poor 1-5 inside the red zone vs the Chiefs last week, kicking four short field goals. This is a good sign for the Chiefs chances to cover this number, as Kansas City is 6-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) on the road after a loss in which they stopped their opponent on at least two red zones attempts, covering by an average of 8.6 ppg and 4-0 ATS when they stopped their opponent on at least three red zone attempts, covering by an average of 10.5 ppg.
Detroit is off a 51-14 loss to the Chargers in San Diego that virtually eliminated them from the playoffs. Minnesota's win on Monday Night over the Bears mathematically eliminated them. The Lions' effort for most of the season was nothing short of heroic. Last week, they ran out of gas. Six weeks ago, Kitna's guarantee of a 10-win season and the playoffs looked like a heavy favorite. Now they have absolutely nothing to play for. They are tapped out. One revealing statistic is that the Lions have been scoreless in the fourth quarter in each of their last two losses. This is the sign of a team that has thrown in the towel. Indeed, the league is 0-9-1 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a home favorite after losses in each of the last two weeks in which they were scoreless in the fourth quarter. In addition, the Lions are 0-7 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since September 27, 1992 as a home favorite after playing on the road as a TD+ dog, 0-6 ATS (-9.7 ppg) the week after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers and 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing. Perhaps the most telling of these is the Lions record after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers. This stat is disheartening for both the offense and defense. Not only are the Lions 0-6 ATS in this situation, they are 0-6 straight up, losing by an average of 13 ppg. This trend is featured in the box at the bottom of this page.
Finally, the Detroit is an impotent 0-6 ATS as a favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak, losing each of the last five games straight up, while failing to cover by an average of 14.3 ppg. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play on Kansas City as well.
MTi's FORECAST: Kansas City 17 DETROIT 16
4-Star NEW ORLEANS -3 over Philadelphia - Yes, the Eagles have revenge for a playoff loss right here last season, but the Eagles are in a bad spot. Despite their offense ineptitude last week, they got a 10-6 win over the Cowboys. Philadelphia only converted 5 of 16 first downs and was forced to punt eight times - a season high. when the Eagles get a win despite a weak offensive performance, they are TERRIBLE the following week. Perhaps they are overestimated by the linesmakers or perhaps their defense is exhausted. Whatever the case, Philadelphia is 0-8 ATS after a win in which they converted less than 33% of their 3rd downs, failing to cover by a whopping 17.1 ppg. Indeed, the Eagles' defense allowed the Cowboys to convert only one first down last week out of thirteen attempts. This is not a good sign for the Eagles this week, as they are 0-5 ATS on the road after stopping their opponent on at least ten third downs, falling short of the number by an average of 10.6 ppg.
We also have two systems indicating a play against the Eagles here. The League as a whole does not perform up to the linesmakers' expectations after a dog after a big game vs a divisional opponent. In fact, the League is 0-12 ATS as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a divisional opponent, falling short of the number by an average of 13.2 ppg. In addition, the league is 0-8-1 ATS (-8.1 ppg) as a dog the week after a win in which they punted at least eight times. Finally, for the Eagles, the league is 0-6 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since 1991 on the road when they got revenge last week as a TD+ road dog.
The Saints are 6-0 ATS (+11.3 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick at home after a straight up win at home and 6-0 ATS (+10.2 ppg) as a home favorite the week after a straight up win in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average.
If Jessica Simpson wasn't a big distraction last week, the Eagles would be on a four game losing streak and be a much bigger dog here. We're getting great line value because many are giving credit to the Eagles for the upset win. Lay the field goal - before it goes to 3'.
MTi's FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 34 Philadelphia 24 4-Star SAN FRANCISCO +6 over Tampa Bay -- The Falcons expected to play well last week, but they got down big early when Redman threw an INT for a TD and allowed Tampa Bay's first ever franchise kick return for a TD. After that, the Falcons threw in the towel, committing stupid penalties and playing without passion. The win over Atlanta clinched the division for the Bucs, and we expect they'll be flat here. Tampa Bay is 0-8 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a road favorite after a straight up win as a favorite and 0-8 ATS (-11.2 ppg) on the road vs a non-divisional opponent when they have a divisional opponent next week. In addition, the Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-7.5 ppg) when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week at home as a favorite and 0-8 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since December 01, 2002 as a road favorite versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win.
The 49ers are off a 20-13 upset win over the Bengals and this win can be attributed to their embattled defense. We look for the offense to continue to improve and "pick-up" the defense here. Nothing is more motivating to an offense than a good performance by their defense. Indeed, the league is 8-0 ATS at home after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home. Teams in this situation have scored an average of 29.0 ppg and have won the last five games straight up. Yes, the Niners' offense is not exactly a scoring machine, but the Bucs actually have trouble covering vs offensively inept teams as they are 0-6 ATS (-8.8 ppg) as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The 49ers get win number five. Check out the moneyline for this one as the Niners have a good shot to win outright.
MTi's FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 20 Tampa Bay 17
3-Star MINNESOTA -6' over Washington - The Redskins have allowed 19, 17, 14 and 10 points in their last four games respectively. Last week, they upset the Giants 22-10 in NY, despite moving the chains only 14 times, while allowing 20 first downs. The Giants also had more time of possession and forced the Redskins to punt NINE times. Todd Collins, forced into service recently due to Jason Campbell's injury vs Chicago, completed only eight of 25 passes last week, relying on Clinton Portis' 126 rushing yards. An effective rushing game masks the ineffectiveness of Todd Collins. Against the Vikings, Todd Collins will be exposed as a back-up QB. Minnesota's offense will keep the Redskins' defense on the field and their rush defense will force Collins into 3rd-and-longs where he has the potential to make mistakes.
Historically, the Redskins have been flat in this spot, as they are 0-10 ATS after a straight up win as a road dog, falling short of the linesmakers' expectations by an average of 11.2 ppg. In addition, Washington has trouble getting over 500, as they are 0-9 ATS (-10.4 ppg) as a dog when they are 500.
The Redskins have been getting fortunate in their recent wins and here their luck runs out. Their defense has been playing over their heads and the bruising rushing game of the Vikings will get them to roll over. Lay the points.
MTi's FORECAST: MINNESOTA 24 Washington 10
4'-Star Philadelphia at New Orleans OVER 47 - The Eagles' defense went all out last week in an effort to beat their hated rival the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles held the Cowboys to only 11 first downs and Dallas was only 1-of-13 on their third down attempts. They will have nothing left here for a non-divisional opponent and the Saints have the personnel to capitalize on their weakness. New Orleans will score early and often vs the compromised Eagles' defense.
As evidence, we present the fact that Philadelphia is 7-0 OU as an underdog after stopping their opponent on at least 10 third downs attempts, eclipsing the OU line by an average of 15.6 ppg. In last week's 10-6 win over Dallas, the Eagles were 1-of-3 inside the Red Zone and this points to the OVER, as Philadelphia is 5-0 OU as a road dog after failing on at least two red zones attempts, going over by an average of 19.9 ppg!
Last week, the Saints won 31-24 laying 3' at home to the Cardinals. When the Saints get the job done as a favorite, they tend to keep the offense coming. New Orleans is 8-0 OU as a home favorite after a straight up win as a favorite, going over by an average of two TDs per game and 8-0 OU as a favorite versus any team with fewer wins. after a straight up win at home, going over by an average of an even higher 15.8 ppg.
Finally, perhaps the most compelling piece of evidence of all. The Saints are 8-0 OU as a favorite after a game as a favorite in which they scored at least four touchdowns, going over by an average of 14.0 ppg. This trend has been active four times this season and every one went over by at least 8 points. The Saints have scored 41, 29, 23 and 31 points in the four games, and it was the Bucs that held them to 23 points. If the Eagles' defense was fresh, we'd back off this one, but after their gritty all-out, all-game, all-star effort vs the Cowboys, they will be tapped out here. Take the OVER.
MTi's FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 34 Philadelphia 24
4-Star Green Bay at Chicago OVER 33 -- The Packers did win and cover vs the Rams last week but the stats tell a different story. Green Bay had 85 fewer total yards, four fewer first downs and 12:48 MORE possession time. We look for a high scoring game here, as the league as a whole is 13-0 OU as a road favorite after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time, going over by an average of 13.3 ppg. The Packers themselves are 6-0 OU as a road favorite the week after a win in which they were outgained, going over by an average of 10.4 ppg and 6-0 OU the week after having at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average as a favorite, staying under by an average of 15.4 ppg.
Green Bay is winning games easily and when this happens, the offense plays with more confidence and the defense doesn't pay with a sense of urgency. Not surprisingly, this results in high-scoring games. The Packers are 7-0 OU (7.6 ppg) as a road favorite when they won by double digits in each of the past two weeks. The Bears are vulnerable to a good passing game and that's the Packers' strength. Chicago is ranked 27th in the league in completion percentage allowed and the Packers will exploit this weakness. Green Bay is 8-0 OU (+9.9 ppg) as a road favorite when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date.
Green Bay scored three touchdowns and kicked four field goals last week in St Louis. This is a strong OVER situation, as the Packers are 5-0 OU as a favorite after a game as a favorite in which they made more field goals than touchdowns. The Bears know that the Packers will score points and they need to score at least 24 points to win this one. Kyle Orton will not be handing the ball off all day. Take these two over this low number.
MTi's FORECAST: Green Bay 27 CHICAGO 17
4-Star Washington at Minnesota UNDER 40.5 - Tavaris Jackson committed four turnovers last week and the Vikings have arguably the best running back tandem in the league. They are a significant home favorite over the Redskins, who also feature the run, which plays right to the strength of the Vikings' defense. in this CRUCIAL game, Childress should take the ball out of the hands of Jackson and rely almost entirely on his rushing game and rush defense. Todd Collins, who was 8-of-25 last week in place of Jason Campbell, isn't going to beat him. Childress should attempt to limit the Redskins to fewer than ten possessions by eating clock with his two-pronged running attack.
Looking at the trends, we find that the Redskins are 0-9-1 OU vs an NFC opponent as a road dog of more than 5 points when they were a dog last week. In addition, Washington is 0-8 OU on the road on Sunday when they have the Cowboys next, 0-7 OU (-9.0 ppg) as a road dog when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week and 0-7 OU (-6.9 ppg) when they are 500 after game seven.
The Vikings are the favorite and will play conservatively. Indeed, Minnesota is 0-7 OU as a favorite after a straight up win at home and 0-9 OU as a favorite versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win. As long as the Vikings running backs don't break off long TD runs, there should be plenty of room beneath this number. Take the UNDER.
MTi's FORECAST: MINNESOTA 24 Washington 10
MTi's 2-team, 6-point teasers
4-Star Buffalo +7, Cincinnati +7
4-Star Buffalo +7, San Francsico +12
4-Star Cincinnati +7, San Francsico +12
MTi's 3-team, 10-point teasers
4-Star Kansas City +14', Arizona pick, Tennessee +1
4-Star Kansas City +14', Arizona pick, Buffalo OVER 22
3-Star Kansas City +14', Tennessee +1, Buffalo OVER 22
3-Star Arizona pick, Tennessee +1, Buffalo OVER 22
WAYNE ROOT: BILLIONAIRE TEXANS, NO LIMIT EAST CAROLINA, MONEY MAKER 49ERS, MILLIONAIRE BENGALS, CHAIRMAN PATRIOTS
PJ HARRIS: BEARS
SEBASTIAN: 100 BENGALS
DAVE MALINSKY: 6 BENGALS
GARY JEFFRIES: GOY BEARS
TOM STRYKER: COLTS
CEMENT SHOES MINELLI: LIONS
JOHN RYAN: SAINTS
PREFERRED PICKS: GOY BENGALS
WAYNE ROOT: MILLIONAIRE GOY BENGALS
KELSO STURGEON: UNDERDOG PARLAY GOY TEXANS/REDSKINS
3G: GOY TEXANS
GOLD KEY CLUB: 100 SAINTS
TEXAS INSIDERS: 100 TEXANS
MARC LAWRENCE: GOY BENGALS
TEDDY COVERS: 20 EAST CAROLINA
FAIRWAY JAY: PATRIOTS
RON MEYER: GOY JAGUARS
ALATEX: SUPERPLAY BROWNS
ALLEGHENIES ANALYSIS: 4 LIONS, BILLS
DATAMAN: BILLS, CHIEFS, 49ERS
ANDY ISKOE: SAINTS
ASA: GOY REDSKINS