DAVID JONES 11- 5
BEST BET
St. Louis at Arizona -6 O/U 48
Recommendation: Over
It has been a season to forget for the Rams after a promising8-8 campaign a year ago. Numerous injuries and a slow startultimately have led to a 3-12 mark coming into their finale. St.Louis has struggled on both sides of the ball this year. Thedefense has allowed 24 or more points in 10 of 15 games thisseason. A talented offense has lacked rhythm for most of theseason due to the injuries and a lack of consistency. However,the offense is vastly different when veteran QB Marc Bulger isbehind center. He should be able to have some success againsta vulnerable Cardinals defense. Arizona’s pass defense has beenunder fire in recent weeks due to some significant injuries. TheCards have allowed 27 or more points in five of their last six games coming into this one. Two of the worst offenses in the NFL(San Francisco and Atlanta) have combined to score 64 points in recent outings against Arizona. The Cardinals offense will be poised to keep pace with St. Louis in this contest. Former Ramshero Kurt Warner will be eager to give the Cardinals their firstnon-losing season since 1998. The club’s pass-oriented attackhas been in good form in the second half of the year. The Cardshave scored 24 or more points in six of their last seven efforts.In the first matchup between these clubs this year at the RCADome, the Cardinals held on for a wild 34-31 victory. This oneshould have plenty of offensive fireworks as both squads willbe firing the ball with success against a pair of soft defenses
ROB VENO 11-3 -2
BEST BET
Seattle at Atlanta -2 O/U 38
Recommendation: Over
Falcons defense continued its miserable downward spiral allowing30 more points and 437 total yards in last week’s overtime lossto Arizona. That marks the sixth consecutive week Atlanta hasgiven up 28 points or more. With Seattle clinching the NFC’s No.3 seed, head coach Mike Holmgren figures to either limit playingtime to or totally rest a majority of his starters but against this Atlantadefense, even the second team should get to 20 here. Backupquarterback Seneca Wallace has plenty of experience and he’llhave enough offensive line and skill position talent around him tovictimize the Falcons defense. Unlike their offense which is somewhatdepth shy and forced to go with a number of solid players, theSeattle defense can go to a full backup unit which can be exploitedby Atlanta. Resting here should be the disruptive members of Seattle’ssack happy defensive front, all three members of their fantasticlinebacking crew and their entire stellar unit of defensive backs.Atlanta piled up 27 points last week versus Arizona with QB ChrisRedman having a fantastic day (315, 2 TDs). RB Jerious Norwoodfigures to balance the offense here as he runs against backupswhich is likely to make the Falcons very potent in this contest. Seasonhome finale is likely to have Atlanta fired up as well as they’lllook to finish out strong for the crowd and interim head coach EmmittThomas. There’s just too much value in this total as this one screams of a game that’ll be all offense all day and post 43+ points.
JOEY GAFFNEY ( HILTON LEADER)
Philadelphia - 7 1/2
Green Bay - 3 1/2
Seattle + 2 1/2
St. Louis + 6
Kansas City + 6
Northcoast Infomercial
Underdog POW
Kansas City +6.5
Economy Club
Tampa Bay
Totals POW
Arizona over
Point Trains's FOOTBALL PICKS 12/30/2007
NFL DOG DOMINATOR
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)over HOUSTON TEXANS
Rating: 3 units
Jacksonville (+) over HOUSTON at 1:00 pm EST Jacksonville has slid under the radar throughout this season, posting the AFC’s third-best record behind New England Indianapolis. And the Jags have come on at the right time, riding a wave of momentum into the playoffs with six straight outright wins and seven straight ATS victories. They have nothing to gain from this game and their starters need rest but HC Jack Del Rio also doesn’t want to team to lose its hard-earned momentum. The Jacksonville starters may not play the entire game but they’ll get enough to keep this game close. A good example of what Jacksonville can do to Houston is its 37-17 win in the first meeting this year. The Jags ran for 244 yards on 9.4 ypc in that game while holding the Texans to 61 rushing yards on 2.5 ypc. They may be located in Florida but the Jags are a team for the postseason and the cold weather. Weather won’t be an issue in this game but Jacksonville’s up-front domination will be. The Jags are 2nd in the NFL with 152.8 rushing ypg and 7th with just 94.5 rushing yards allowed per game. That’s the kind of domination in the trenches that wins football games. Even if Del Rio does decide to rest his starters, he has plenty of capable backups at his disposal. Backup QB Quinn Gray has seen action in six games this year, even throwing for two TDs last week against Oakland. The RB duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew might not see much action but backup back Greg Jones has ran the ball 241 times with nine touchdowns over the last three years, so he’s more than capable of stepping in. Jacksonville is a hot team right now and will want to remain hot heading into the postseason. It may not win this game with its starters resting a portion of the game but a deep roster will keep this game within a touchdown. Ride with the Jags.
6-UNIT NFC GAME OF THE MONTH
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6) over St. Louis Rams
Rating: 6 units
ARIZONA (-) over St. Louis at 4:15 pm EST Neither one of these teams has any chance at the postseason but one, Arizona, has a lot more to play for. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 7-8, can avoid finishing a season with a losing record for the first time since 1997, when they went 9-7, with a win over St. Louis. HC Ken Whisenhunt has had his team playing well since the opening game and he’ll continue to have them playing hard in this game. Arizona QB Kurt Warner has shown glimpses of the MVP quarterback that led his opponent in this game, St. Louis, to two Super Bowls. He has thrown for more than 3,000 yards with 24 touchdowns and a very solid 90.0 quarterback rating. Warner has two Pro Bowl-caliber wideouts at his disposal with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and he knows how to find them. The Rams defense has been awful since the week’s opening week as it is 30th in the NFL with 26 points allowed per game and 21st with 221.7 passing yards allowed per game. St. Louis has allowed 37 ppg in its last two outings and allowed 34 points in its first meeting with the Cardinals. Arizona will match, if not surpass, that score in this meeting. St. Louis has all but packed it in for this season. Frustration from Torry Holt was seen on the sideline during last week’s 17-point loss to Pittsburgh and the rest of the team is in the same boat. Expect the Rams to come out flat while the Cards come out fired up. Ride with Arizona.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL MASSACRE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS
-3.5,ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -vs-Colorado Buffaloes
Rating: 3 units
Alabama (-) over Colorado at 8:00 pm EST Alabama may have lost six games this year but each of those losses were extremely close games. The Tide’s losses came by just 6 ppg and Alabama had a chance to win each of them. If the Tide had received a few more favorable bounces they easily could be playing in a much better bowl game Alabama played very good defense this year despite playing those tough SEC programs. Alabama allowed just 21.8 ppg on the season, including just 18.3 ppg over its last three contests. The Buffs are 72nd in the nation in total offense and will have an extremely tough time moving the ball against the Tide “D”. HC Nick Saban has coached in tons of bowl games so you can be sure that he’ll have his team ready for this contest. Expect Alabama to concluding Saban’s first season with a win. Ride with the Tide.
THE GOLD SHEET ( 7-7)
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
COLORADO (6-6) vs. ALABAMA (6-6)
Sunday, December 30 Night at Shreveport, LA (FieldTurf)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Colorado 12 6-6 6-6 28 29 151 226 41-19-19 128 262 44-18-24 -4 -.4 8.2
Alabama 11 5-6 2-7 25 23 136 218 29-13-15 133 217 32-14-17 +2 .6 9.4
*Alabama 24 - Colorado 23—
It’s hard to envision either of these two 6-
6 teams—both looking toward the future—escaping the gravity of the other.
Alabama (only 2-7-2 vs. the spread) lost its last four games and has ended up
in the same bowl it lost 34-31 LY to Oklahoma State. Hard-driving HC Nick
Saban (only 3-5 SU in bowls) is thankful for the extra days of bowl practice, but
the “Nicktator” has railed at his players near the end of the season for not doing
things “the right way.” Saban has commitments from a large recruiting class and
has reportedly told his team that many current players will not be back in 2008.
In Boulder, the atmosphere has been a little different, with Colorado happy to
be back in the postseason after missing the bowls completely LY despite having
gone to the Big XII title game 4 of the 5 previous seasons. But enthusiastic
coach Dan Hawkins had one of the youngest teams in the country in 2007,
complete with a redshirt freshman QB (son Cody), two true frosh starters in his
OL, and a slew of young receivers. Plus, the young Buffaloes snapped their 1-
4 late-season slide with a rousing 41-point second-half comeback to beat
defenseless rival Nebraska 65-51.
Both opposing QBs were inconsistent (Cody Hawkins 56.4%, 19 TDs, 15
ints.; John Parker Wilson 54.9%, 15 TDs, 11 ints.), both teams struggled
converting on third down (CU 34.5%; Bama 37.0%), and both suffered from
some inconsistent kicking (Buffs only 9 of 16 FGs of 30-49 yards; Crimson Tide
only 10 of 18). But on defense, both teams are speckled with outstanding
playmakers, as CU LB Jordon Dizon was second in the nation in tackles; Bama’s
255-pound true frosh LB Rolando McLain was an all-SEC frosh. Buffs’ CB
Terrence Wheatley (back from toe fracture) had 5 ints.; Tide S Rashad Johnson
had 6. Bama DE Wallace Gilberry had 9 sacks; Buff DT George Hypolite 6.
Alabama has played in five bowls this century, with the final margins only 1,
1, 4, 3 & 3 (!), with the Red Elephants winning only two.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
POINTWISE ( 4-10)
ALABAMA (6-6) vs COLORADO (6-6)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Alabama ..... 46.8 .. 27-22 .. 23-18 .. 151-128 .. 222-213.. + 4 . Alabama
Colorado .... 44.5 .. 27-28 .. 17-19 .. 152-128 .. 227-262.. - 4 . by 3.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
These 2 collegiate stalwarts meet for just the 3rd time, with the previous 2 also
coming in the post-season. In the '69 Liberty Bowl, the Buffaloes of Colorado
prevailed over the Crimson Tide of Alabama, 47-33. The Tide snagged a bit of
revenge, by winning the '91 Blockbuster Bowl, 30-25, as a 2-pt chalk. This
season saw the arrival of Nick Saban at Tuscaloosa. He brought LSU a share
of the national title just 4 years ago, before moving on to an ill-fated stretch
with the Miami Dolphins. And, altho 'Bama has had its moments, including an
amazing 41-17 rout of then 20th-ranked Tennessee, along with a mere 3-pt
loss to currently 4th-ranked Georgia, & a 7-pt loss to now 2nd-ranked LSU,
the fact of the matter is that the Tide hasn't won since that blowout of the Vols.
Thus, a 6-6 record, despite 9 returning offensive starters, with nary a loss by
more than a TD. Extremely competitive, but a classic underachiever, exemplified
by a loss to La-Monroe, as a 24½ pt favorite. Like the Tide, Colorado, is
also a difficult team, in which to get a proper read. The Buffs' highlight was
that shocking 27-24 upset of 3rd-ranked Oklahoma, as 23-pt dogs. And it was
no fluke, as CU held the Sooners to 12 FDs, while holding a 381-230 yd edge.
That win completed a 3-game stretch, in which Colorado held a combined FD
edge of 73-28. The low point? Try a 55-10 home loss to Missouri, with a 402
yd deficit. QBs Wilson of UA & Hawkins of CU have posted similar stats, &,
as can be seen above they match each other perfectly in rushing "O" & "D".
Note 'Bama's last 5 bowl games being decided by 1, 1, 4, 3, & 3 pts SU. That
is just about what should be expected in this meeting. So, we will take the pts.
PROPHECY: COLORADO 27 - Alabama 25 RATING: 4
THE SPORTS MEMO ( 12-2 )
Alabama -3.5 vs. Colorado O/U 51 Recommendation: Over
Sunday, December 30, 8 pm EST (ESPN) Shreveport, La
The Independence Bowl is not a treasured destination for SECschools, especially ones that pay their new coach $4 million peryear. Such is life, however, and Nick Saban and Alabama are backin Shreveport for the second consecutive year. The Tide wasa 34-31 loser to Oklahoma State in last year’s game. Coloradois back in a bowl this year after suffering through a 2-10 seasona year ago. They are probably a little more excited to be inShreveport than the Tide, but the edge probably isn’t that great.I would expect Alabama to have a good effort as Saban tries toend his first season in Tuscaloosa with a winning record. Theseteams are actually pretty similar this season. Both had some niceconference wins, some bad losses, and some near misses. Coloradohad a win over then number one ranked Oklahoma early inthe year and also had a road win at Texas Tech. Alabama’s bestwin came against Tennessee, but they also battled LSU tough ina seven-point loss. The Tide ended the season on a four gamelosing streak, dropping all four games by a touchdown or less.They really struggled on offense, scoring just 36 points in theirlast three losses to Auburn, Louisiana-Monroe and MississippiState. These two teams are also similar statistically using thetrue rushing and passing numbers. They are both about averagerunning the ball, a little below average throwing it and about averageon defense. Colorado has better offensive numbers, whileBama has a little better numbers defensively. In looking at thismatchup, I expect to see a wide open game. Neither team reallyhas anything to lose or gain in this game and the trend amongbowl games in recent years has definitely been towards highscoringgames. Colorado’s Dan Hawkins has always been a wideopen offensive coach, and in the bowl atmosphere, I expect thatto be even more evident. Alabama should be able to throw theball against this Colorado defense that allowed over 400 yardspassing in three of its last four games, something I am sure hascaught the attention of the Alabama coaching staff. After a solidsophomore season, Alabama quarterback John Parker Wilsondefinitely regressed this year. Some of that can be attributedto injuries to key players on offense, but Wilson also failed tomake some throws that he made the year before. He needs asolid game here to cement his status as the starter next year,and this is a defense that he can certainly take advantage of.Wilson will also have everyone on the offense around him healthyand eligible for this game, another plus. Colorado’s offense isled by Cody Hawkins, the son of the coach. He has also had anup and down season, but ended with two solid performancesin the Buffaloes’ last two games. In fact, Colorado scored 93points in those two contests. Choosing the winner of this gameis tough, it will likely be decided late in the game, but both sidesshould light up the scoreboard and push it easily Over the total.
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS: ( 11-3)
This is the only bowl matching two 6-6 tms TY and is the 3rd all-time meeting (1-1) with both priortilts in bowls. They last met in the ‘91 Blockbuster Bowl and Bama won 30-25 (-2). CU did not make abowl LY & is 12-15 all-time. UA is making their NCAArecord 55th bowl appearance and their 4th bowltrip in a row. This is UA’s 3rd trip to the Independence Bowl (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) and their 2nd trip in a rowto Shreveport. Bama is on a 1-5 ATS run in bowls. Saban went 3-5 SU & ATS in bowls at LSU & Mich St.This will mark CU’s 1st Independence Bowl berth, but they are on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run in the postseason. HC Hawkins is 2-2 SU & ATS in bowls (all w/Boise St). CU fans are not known for traveling &might not be well represented again due to the 1,071 mile trip & the late night Sun start. Bama may alsohave trouble selling tickets since they went to this bowl LY and finished the reg ssn with 4 straight lossesincluding their 6th in a row to rival Aub. CU has faced 6 bowl caliber tms TY & has gone 2-4 SU & ATSbeing outscored on avg 29-17 & outgained 346-294. UA faced 9 bowl caliber tms with a 3-6 SU & 1-7-1ATS record but was only outscored 25-24 and outgained 355-350. Both schools ply’d FSU and both lostSU & ATS, but CU was held to -27 rush yds (-1.1). CU has 6 senior starters with 15 upperclassmen(68%) and Bama has 7 seniors with 12 upperclassmen (55%). CU is 4-10 ATS (including bowls) as anAD & the Tide was 1-2 ATS as a AF TY and finished the ssn on a 1-8-1 ATS run.Colorado took care of business vs rival Neb to become bowl eligible in their ssn finale & secured thisslot when Fresno beat K-St. They dropped 65 pts on the Huskers (most scored in a single gm S/’95). Itwas a tale of 2 ssns as CU stood 4-2 outgaining foes by 76 ypg with a win over then #3 OU (snapped 14gm losing streak vs ranked tms). Buffs were outscored by 15 ppg & outgained by 97 ypg in a 5 wk period(1-4) before the ssn final. CU has our #48 off avg 28 ppg & 377 ypg. Buffs returned 9 starters on off fromLY’s 2-10 tm that avg 16.3 ppg (lowest in 22 yrs). HC Hawkins’ son Cody earned the starting QB job butunderstandably struggled early but had a 8-1 ratio over the L/4 gms. The success of the off relies heavilyon RB Charles. Five of their 6 losses came when Charles failed to reach 100 yds. The OL avg 6’4” 305paving the way for 150 ypg (3.9) all’g 16 sks. The CU def has our #53 ranking all’g 29 ppg, 389 ypg withjust 19 sks. The DL avg 6’3” 268 all’g 128 rush ypg (4.0). The LB corps was hampered by inj’s early inthe ssn and is missing 50% of the 2 deep. LB Dizon was named Big 12 Def POY with a league leading12.4 tpg (#2 NCAA). CB Wheatley, who is the leader of the secondary, missed the L/2 gms with an injbut should be 100% (#2 all-time int leader w/14). CU ranks #24 in our pass eff def rankings all’g 262 ypg(57%) with a 24-15 ratio vs a very tough slate of opposing QB’s. K Eberhart has a strong leg, hitting 8-12from 40+ (L/54) but will not have the advantage of the high altitude. CU has our #21 ST’s ranking.LY Tide alum Mike Shula was fired after a 6-6 reg ssn which resulted in a trip to the IndependenceBowl and Bama brought in Saban for an unheard of salary to save the program from mediocrity. TheTide proved that Rome wasn’t built in a day and return to Shreveport after taking a nosedive in the 2Hof the ssn including a humiliating home loss to ULM. Tide QB Wilson led the Tide’s #58 offense but waserratic and wilted under heavy pressure finishing the ssn with a 1-5 ratio in the L/3. RB’s Grant, Coffee,Upchurch and Johns were all given opportunities, but Grant proved to be the most consistent starting9 gms. WR Hall finished #2 in the SEC in rec ypg in a strong senior yr. The OL suffered greatly when2 starters missed 4 gms in the highly publicized textbook scandal and all’d 24 sks (5.5%) with the tmrushing for 151 ypg (4.0). The defense finished #29 in our overall rankings and #39 in our pass D rankingsall’g opposing QB’s to complete just 54% with a 17-17 ratio. Bama has our #17 ST’s rankings.Nick Saban has not quite been the savior that the Crimson Tide alumni had hoped for. A 6-6year with a season ending 4 game losing streak is unacceptable. While Colorado also comes in witha 6-6 mark their fans are pleased with the progress HC Hawkins has shown. Saban made “disaster”remarks after the loss to ULM and no one has more pressure for a feel good win to save face forrecruiting. Bama has the talent edge, the need, the crowd, and the fear of embarrassment.
FORECAST: ALABAMA 30 Colorado 17 RATING: 2★
WINNING POINTS ( 8-6)
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
ALABAMA over COLORADO by 7
This was hardly the season that Alabama was looking for in Nick Saban’s debut,
with his own unfortunate comments late in the year drawing even more national
attention to the struggles that the Crimson Tide have had, and then a USA Today
article showing how the program was #2 in the nation in coaching dollars spent per
win this season. In fairness, however, while things were disappointing they were not
all that awful, with Alabama not losing a game all season by more than a touchdown.
The first bottom line is that an influx of talent is needed before the building
process gets underway, but the second bottom is that the Crimson Tide still
have more talent than this opponent, which gets buoyed by an intense focus and
what should be a major edge in fan support. Like Saban, Dan Hawkins also needs
some solid recruiting classes to get things turned around in Boulder, and while
pulling an upset of Oklahoma is a sign of the capacity of this coaching staff, there
were far too many games in which the Buffaloes were not able to compete. The pass
defense allowed over 400 yards in four of the last seven games, and in the last two
home games allowed Missouri and Nebraska to top 50 points and 600 yards, a real
sign of a lack of depth as they basically wore out. That means plenty of operating
room for D. J. Hall and an Alabama offense that will finally enjoy some breathing
room off of that difficult S.E.C. schedule to make some game-breaking plays.
ALABAMA 31-24.
EROCKMONEY
Independence - Colorado (+4) v. Alabama
Bama really stumbled at the end of the season and I expect it to continue into the bowl game. Colorado plays strong defense and has really started to pick up coach Hawkins offense of late. This one will be tight throughout and I'll take the Buffaloes with the points.
Pick: Alabama by 1
VEGAS HOTSHEET
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
449 Colorado 35
450 Alabama 22
COLORADO +3½
FREE PICK: OVER 51
MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 6-8 ( lost 6 striaght)
Independence Bowl
Colorado by 3
Mighty ! Quinn
Col + 3 1/2
Pointwise Phones
3* Colorado
Asa 7* BOWL GOY
Alabama -3 1/2
The Lock Line
NCAAF
Alabama
Bryan Leonard
NFL GOY
Green Bay -4.5
POINTWISE NFL
NFL KEY RELEASES
CLEVELAND over San Francisco RATING: 3
PHILADELPHIA over Buffalo RATING: 4
ST LOUIS over Arizona RATING: 4
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore RATING: 5
MIAMI over Cincinnati RATING: 5
POINWISE HOOPS:
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
NO CAROLINA over Valparaiso (Sun) RATING: 1
Sports Gambling Hotline
We feel it is quite important for the Eagles to end this season on an upnote, and wins and covers in their last pair at Dallas and New Orleans is a good start for the much-maligned Donovan McNabb, and head coach Andy Reid.
The Philly-faithful should leave the Linc happy today, as we expect the Eagles to close the year with their third straight win and cover.
Buffalo appears to have cashed it in for the year, as they were up 14-0 last week at home against the Giants, then were promptly routed 38-21, as the Bills have now lost their last pair of games, and 4 of their last 6 both straight up and against the math.
Buffalo's offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild is moving on to Colorado State to take over the head coaching reins, and with Trent Edwards starting to implode - just a 37% completion rate the last 2 weeks, and 3 interceptions last week against the Giants, expect Philly DC Jim Johnson to dial up some different looks that will fluster whomever is under center for Buffalo today.
Lay the lumber as the Eagles close the campaign strong.
Play on Philly.
5* PHILADELPHIA