THE SPORTS MEMO
New York at Dallas
Recommendation: New York
In perhaps the most intriguing matchup of the weekend these very familiar divisional rivals square off for a spot in the NFC Championship game.The Cowboys made easy work of their schedule as Tony Romo guided a brilliant offense that featured two strong running backs (Jones and Barber) the NFC’s best WR (Owens) and maybe the best TE in football (Witten). Their massive offensive line took over late in games and the Cowboys, despite having the NFC’s highest scoring offense at 28.5 ppg could play ball control when needed. The defense has looked somewhat suspect, particularly in the secondary, but a good pass rush has masked those issues at times this season. Big D looked almost untouchable early in the year while covering in seven of their first nine games including two double digit wins over this same Giants team (8-1 SU). But they stumbled toward the end of the year losing four straight against the number and are banged up with both Romo and TO missing practice time. The Giants overcame a devastating collapse against New England and a terrible first quarter in which they failed to gain a single net yard of offense to post an impressive win in Tampa in the Wild Card round. They are playing their best football of the season at just the right time. Eli Manning has been rock solid, the running game has had contributions from Jacobs and Bradshaw, the offensive line has protected, the receivers finally held on to the ball and the pass rush from speed-ends like Strahan, Tuck and company has been phenomenal. We still don’t trust Eli or coach Coughlin completely here in the playoffs but their strong road record (now 8-1 ATS)cannot beignored. They will likely lose again but we’ll call for this one to be closer the third time around. Take the touchdown-plus with the Giants.
San Diego at Indianapolis
Recommendation: Indianapolis
The Chargers are feeling great heading into Indy this week, and why not? They finally won a home playoff game despite losing Antonio Gates during the first half, they blanked the Titans in the second half outgaining them by nearly 200 yards, and they have now won seven straight both straight up and against the number. The defense, which finished first in the league in takeaways has been flying to the ball and pressuring QBs into bad decisions, allowing no more than 17 points during this stretch run. And who can forget the performance they had right before this seven game run when they picked off Peyton Manning six times? Not this confident bunch from the West Coast, not the Colts, and certainly not Peyton Manning. Indy will be out for redemption after blowing a chance to win that game despite the turnovers and this will be the perfect spot.For as much as they struggled early in that game the offense and defense easily outplayed the Chargers. In fact, San Diego was outgained by over 200 yards and scored just 10 points offensively despite good field position nearly all game. Aside from two kick return TDs from Darren Sproles the Chargers rarely looked like a threat to score. And it wasn’t some fluke, no, the Colts finished with the NFL’s number one ranked scoring defense at just 16.4 points per game. We’ll side with the reigning Super Bowl Champs at home with a bit of a revenge factor against a team that has struggled on the road this year and whose offense has been spotty at best. Chargers simply can’t keep pace this week, take Indy.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 19 – NFL Playoffs
NFL Playoffs- Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
The Giants are collecting 70% of the bets placed on this game, based mainly on their strong performances over the past few weeks. Last week, Eli Manning looked solid in the Giants’ 24-14 over a good Tampa Bay squad. This followed a huge showing versus the Patriots, even in defeat. That game, which was a heavily-watched nationally-televised media event, earned the Giants many believers.
On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboy juggernaut seems to have slowed down near the end of the season. There are a lot of Cowboy question marks, including Romo’s thumb and TO’s ankle. We feel, however, that the Giants have question marks of their own: particularly Eli Manning’s historic inconsistency. Based on this information, our readers know that we see this as a good contrarian play: buying Dallas at a “low” and selling the Giants at a “high.”
Our oddsmaker contacts at the sportsbooks agree. The line opened at Dallas -7.5 and has stubbornly stayed at that level. The linesmakers tell us that heavy public betting on the Giants is balancing “sharp money” on the Cowboys. With the increased betting interest during the NFL playoffs, however, we may see public money pushing the line down to Dallas -7 across the board. We already see Dallas -7 at the Greek.
Dallas Cowboys -7
Wild Bill
Chargers +8 1/2 (1 unit) Revenge factor in this tilt and a rested and healthier Colts squad. Chargers finally got the monkey off their back so to speak last week vs a struggling Titan offense. Colts minus Freeney, however they have back Harrison and Peyton loves revenge situations. Home field will be a factor and putting a grass team on turf on the road gives the Colts a slight edge at home. Chargers are 2-0 last 2 straight up and ATS vs the Colts however Colts at home in the post-season not exactly stellar and Vinatieri has had a rough year this year as compared to years past. Colts 27 Chargers 24
Over 46 Dallas-Giants (5 units) Rested Cowboys have won last two in series by 10 1/2 points and totals of 51 & 80 points respectively both on the road and at home. Chips are on the line for both teams to advance to the NFC Title game and Dallas is concentrating solely on the Giants in this one. Romo wants revenge for losing on the road to Seattle last year. TO should be back for this game as is Terry Glenn.
Dallas 34 Giants 24
Dallas -7 1/2 (2 units) Home field advantage? Dallas has had it vs the Giants this year thus far. Giants defense will get riddled by short passes to Witten and other TE's for Cowboys and TO should bust out. Other factors will be special teams and RBs Jones & Barber should do much better at home than the Buccaneers runners did last week. Eli is overdue for a huge turnover output! Dallas 34 Giants 24
6 1/2 pt teaser: (2 units) Patriots -6 1/2, Packers -1 1/2, over 39 1/2 Dallas-NYG, Dallas -1
LT Profits comp
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts u46.0 (-110)
As oftentimes happens in marquee playoff games like this one between the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers, the total seems a tad inflated due to the ability of the offenses, while the two excellent defenses are seemingly undervalued.
Everyone knows about the explosive potential of the Colts offense, especially with Peyton Manning’s favorite target Marvin Harrison expected to be back in the lineup. But remember that the Indianapolis defense was again one of the best in the NFL this season, allowing just 16.4 points and 279.7 total yards per game. The unit includes the Defensive Player of the Year in Bob Sanders, and his presence allows the secondary to use one-on-one coverage, freeing the front seven to concentrate on a way to contain LaDainian Tomlinson and the running game. If they are successful in that regard, we simply do not trust Philip Rivers to put up a lot of points at this stage in this environment.
Not the be outdone, the San Diego defense is allowing just 17.1 points per game, and the Chargers have allowed no more than 17 points in any of their last seven games, including their 17-6 triumph over the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card Round. Yes, the Colts offense is obviously a tougher assignment, but the Chargers have actually done fairly well against Manning & Co. because of their fine pass rush. The last time San Diego played in this stadium, they ended the Colts’ dreams of a perfect season by handing them their first loss after a 13-0 start in 2005. Some of the players may now be different, but the philosophy remains the same in that the best way to stop Manning is to apply constant pressure on him, and this Charger team is well-equipped to do that.
Naturally, we do not expect either of these offenses to be shut down the whole game. However, we do expect each defense to make enough stops to make this a much lower scoring battle than many people expect.
NFL Free Pick: Chargers, Colts Under 46
Mike Wynn Sports
New York Giants at Dallas
We've seen these teams have two match ups this season, which resulted in two double-digit Dallas wins. Week 1 the Cowboys out-lasted the Giants in a 45-35 track meet, and then in week 10 the Cowboys went into the Meadowlands against a very motivated Giants squad and came out with a 31-20 win. Tony Romo had his way with the Giants defense in both games, tossing 4 touchdown passes in each of the wins and rushing for a score in the first match up. His counterpart, Eli Manning, did his part in game one, tossing for 4 scores, but he struggled a bit in the rematch, throwing 2 interception and just 1 touchdown. So are we going to see another double-digit Dallas win here Sunday, or can the Giants slow down Romo and company? We’ll take a look at both teams, and we will start with the visiting Giants.
As I mentioned earlier, New York did open up the season with a road loss at Dallas, but since then the Giants have been road warriors, winning eight straight on the road if you include the trip to London where they played Miami. Eli Manning is, arguably, coming of age down the stretch with an impressive outing against New England in the season finale, and the road win over Tampa Bay last Sunday. Manning did a good job of taking care of the ball in those last two games with just 1 interception against 6 touchdown passes. Brandon Jacobs is a bit nicked up at running back for the Giants right now, but the emergence of Bradshaw as a viable option has to make Tom Coughlin and his staff happy. Plaxico Burress, who’s been nursing injuries all season, has finally been able to practice, and that’s a big plus for the Giants. Offensively, I think the Giants will be OK, but it’s the defense that’s going to have to play much better Sunday than they did in the previous two match ups if New York wants to play in the NFC Championship next weekend.
The Dallas Cowboys' offense, which had been the #1 scoring offense in the NFC, did struggle a bit over the last three weeks of the season. Top wide out Terrell Owens injured his ankle in the Carolina game, and the offense wasn’t the same without him. Owens is expected to play on Sunday, but if he isn’t 100%, it will impact the Cowboy offense. Romo, without his star receiver, also struggled down the stretch, nursing a sore thumb, but the beauty of getting a top spot in the playoffs is getting that extra week to get healthy. Dallas has a great 1-2 punch at running back with Barber and Jones, and a Pro Bowl tight end in Jason Witten, who may be the most important weapon in the offensive scheme for Dallas. Defensively, the Cowboys never really lived up to the pre-season billing, but they’re a decent unit, ranking 9th in the league and 6th against the run. Forget about the Dallas injuries here as the bye week will have the Cowboys at full strength and ready to avenge last year's last second loss at Seattle.
Now it’s time to take a look at some of the trends and angles. First, as I mentioned, the Giants are 8-0 straight up in road games since the week 1 loss, and 7-1 ATS in those games. The Cowboys are 2-0 straight up and ATS versus the Giants this season, with both games going over the posted total. Dallas is 10-5-1 ATS at home versus New York since 1992, and 7-0 ATS off a road loss the last three seasons. The Cowboys are also 15-5 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a divisional rival, and 20-8 ATS at home off two or more consecutive losses against the spread. The trends and the week off would favor the Cowboys, but it’s hard to beat a team three times in one season, and that’s why I’m going with the over here Sunday. Both previous match ups this year went over and I see this game unfolding as another high scoring game. With TO back in the line up, I expect the Dallas offense to move the ball like the Cowboy offense we saw for most of the season. I also think Eli Manning is going to have another solid game throwing the ball.
Free winner from Mike Wynn: Last week we hit all four wild card sides at Mike Wynn Sports, plus ran our Locker Room Report run to 11-3 with the Giants under. This week, we totally bury them again and run our record to 12-3 with the Giants/Cowboys over the total of 47 points.
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Razor Sharp Sports
San Diego at Indianapolis
The wildcard weekend lived up to its name. We saw a 13-0 game heading into the fourth end up 35-14 and costing us our under play. We saw Jacksonville take an 18 point lead into the fourth, just to see Pittsburgh come back. Then the Jags kicked a late FG to get the win, but not the cover. We saw the Titans shut out the Chargers in the first half and shut down L.T. to only 42 rushing yards, but the Bolts rallied behind QB Phillip Rivers to get the 17-6 win and cover by a half. The Giants got dominated in the first quarter by the Bucs. They had three straight 3-and-out series and were down 7-0. They then took over and controlled the rest of the way to win 24-14. So do we have more wildness coming this week? Looking at the lines shows that we may be in-store for a couple blowouts. All four games this week have favorites of a touchdown or more.
Heading into this year, the one match-up that wouldn’t have surprised anyone was the Super Bowl Champion Colts and the AFC-best 2006 regular season Chargers playing in the playoffs. Neither team is the #1 seed because of the Patriots, but both of these teams have plenty of talent and weapons to make a run and bring home the Lombardi Trophy. The first step to getting to the final goal is winning this week. Let’s take a look at both teams.
First of all let’s look at the visiting Chargers. San Diego hasn’t been the dominant team that they were last year. They started off slow, going 1-3, but have finished strong, winning 7 straight. As always, the offense will be lead by LaDainian Tomlinson. L.T. lead the NFL in rushing for the second straight year with 1474 yards and 15 TDs. This is a very good year for most people, but after last season’s record breaking 28 TDs and dynamic 1815 rushing yards, along with the incredible offensive numbers Tom Brady has put up, there hasn’t been a lot of talk about his year. QB Phillip Rivers has struggled a bit this season. His QB rating dropped from 92.0 to 82.4 this season. He threw 21 TDs and 15 interceptions this year compared to 22 TDs and just 9 ints last year. Defensively, the Chargers aren’t getting as much press as they did last season, but most of their numbers have improved. Last year they allowed 18.9 points per game. This year they have dropped it to 17.8. They had 16 interceptions (+13 in turnover ratio) last season. This year they led the NFL with 30 interceptions (+24 in turnover ratio). One key factor that could really affect the Chargers is the health of All-Pro TE Antonio Gates. Gates injured his big toe in last week’s game and his status is up in the air for this week.
Then we have the defending Champion Colts. Indianapolis has had one of the quietest 13-3 records in the history of the NFL. Playing in the shadow of the undefeated Patriots, the Super Bowl champs haven’t had to shoulder the repeat questions like most champions do. Peyton Manning continues to run one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Like L.T., Manning’s solid season has been overshadowed by Brady’s incredible numbers. Manning has a 98.0 QB rating. He has thrown for 4040 yards with 31 TDs and just 14 ints. Comparing that to Manning’s numbers over the last couple years, and the numbers are down, but compared to the rest of the NFL they are still right near the top. Manning got added help this year with the full time emergence of 2nd-year RB Joseph Addai. Addai ran for 1072 yards and 12 TDs, along with 41 catches for 364 yards and 3 more scores. Manning has had to keep the offense clicking without one of his favorite targets most of the year. Marvin Harrison has been hampered with a degenerative knee and has missed most of the season, playing in just five games. His last appearance was back in week 7. Reggie Wayne has stepped things up with 104 catches for 1510 yards and 10 TDs. TE Dallas Clark has also found pay dirt 11 times even though he has been banged up throughout the year. Rookie Anthony Gonzalez stepped up with 37 catches for 576 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, the Colts have been dynamite this year. Led by NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, the Colts lead the NFL in points allowed at 16.4. Compare that to 22.5 last season when Sanders was injured most of the year. The Colts are second in the NFL behind the Chargers at +18 in turnover ratio.
This will be the second meeting of the season between these two. Back in week 10 the Chargers beat the Colts 23-21 in rainy San Diego. In that game the Colts totally dominated the stats. They out-gained the Chargers 386 yards to just 177. First downs were 25-11. The three stats that the Bolts controlled were special teams, where Darren Sproles returned both a kick and a punt for a touchdown, turnovers, where Peyton Manning had a career high 6 interceptions, and, of course, the scoreboard where Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard FG with less than 2 minutes remaining. Taking a look at the past meetings shows that the Chargers have dominated. San Diego has won eight of the last twelve straight up and is 9-3 ATS. They are also 6-1 ATS in the last seven games played in Indianapolis. The last time these two teams met they scored 44 points in bad weather. Now the weather will be perfect in the RCA Dome. The Chargers have gone over the total in six of their last seven road games. Look for another over here.
Free winner from Razor Sharp Sports: Take SAN DIEGO / INDIANAPOLIS OVER the total 46.
DOC comp
Take Over 45½ in San Diego @ Indianapolis (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Chargers were the team to beat last year, but now if they have visions of reaching the Super Bowl they likely will have to win two road games. The Colts are now healthy on offense with WR Harrison ready to go giving them three outstanding receivers in the fold. The Chargers will need a healthy does of LT because of the uncertainty of their TE Gates for this affair. Coach Turner knows that the Chargers cannot start out flat like they did last week in San Diego and need to come out an attack and put points on the board. The Chargers have gone over the total in 11 of their 16 regular season games and both teams will reach the twenties in scoring giving us an easy cash with the over. We will not worry if Indy can cover this inflated number. Doc’s Sports has hit 11 of our last 12 NFL selections and wants you aboard for a Saturday double play and a Sunday sure shot winner.
Indianapolis 31, San Diego 23.
Stryker NFL System - NFL Divisional Dandy
In the “Elite Eight” stage of the NFL Playoffs, the history book shows that the home team has performed very well. According to my database, hosts at this stage of the game are a respectable 81-27 SU and 59-46-3 ATS. Even though I think there are a couple of road teams that have a very good shot at pulling off an upset this weekend, respect must be given to this profitable technical situation.
Last year, home teams posted a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS record in this round. On January 13th, 2006 Indianapolis defeated Baltimore 15-6 and New Orleans topped Philadelphia 27-24. Then, on Sunday, January 14th, New England stormed into San Diego and pulled off the amazing 24-21 upset and Chicago slipped past Seattle in the Windy City 27-24.
There will be some home teams that cover this weekend. You know that. The question at hand is which ones will it be? To answer that, I turned to my database to try and find which hosts deserved a closer look and more of our money.
On thing you might not want to do is back a home team in the Divisional Round coming off a blowout victory of 10 points or more. According to my NFL database, those hosts owned a dismal 21-26-2 ATS record. That eliminates Green Bay from the mix. From there, home dogs or favorites of -9’ or less are still extremely profitable carrying a 39-8 SU and 32-14-1 ATS record. Only two of the remaining three home teams apply to this tightener: Indianapolis and Dallas.
If we eliminate all of the power road teams from that 32-14-1 ATS tightener, the ones that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .650, home teams in this situation explode to a sensational 22-6 ATS for 78.5 percent. There is only one host locked into this sweet set this weekend: Dallas. With a week of rest and matched up against a weaker opponent, the Cowboys are obviously in a great spot.
Good luck with Dallas this weekend and be sure to check back next week when I take a look at the Conference Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs! TS
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Indianapolis Colts - 8.5 over San Diego Chargers
S.D. (12-5) is 1-4 last 5 playoff games dating back to '94 off grinding out a 17-6 home win over Titans last week, a team missing four offensive starters. Defending Champ Indianapolis (13-3) ranks 5th in the NFL in total offense and 3rd in total defense. The Colts are 4-1 (SU & ATS) last 5 home playoff games.
New York Giants + 8 over (at) Dallas Cowboys
Dallas (13-3) vs. New York (11-6) enters on an eight game road winning streak allowing an average of 13.9 points over the eight games. N.Y. QB Manning has thrown six TDs vs. one INT last two games. The Giants are 2-2 (SU & ATS) last four games at Dallas.
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DAVE PRICE
Take New York Giants
1 Unit on NY Giants +9 It is very tough to beat any team 3 times in a row period, especially a team that is as talented as NY and in the same season. We?ll take NY catching points in this one. The Giants? road success cannot be overlooked. The Giants are 7-1 ATS in road games this season and 12-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. They have won 8 consecutive road games this season counting the neutral field matchup with Miami overseas. NY is also 12-3 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Dallas has lost 4 straight games ATS heading into the postseason. With New York getting the first round playoff monkey off its back, they?ll be very confident here. Also, with TO not at 100%, the Cowboys defense should take a hit. Take the points.
FERRINGO FOOTBALL
3.5-Unit Play. Take New York Giants (+7.5) over Dallas
It’s pretty tough to beat a team twice in the same season – much less three times in a row. I do think that the Cowboys are at least a bit distracted by the whole Romo Situation. And I do think that they are overvalued because they are America’s team. The Giants were stride-for-stride with Dallas in their last meeting and I think that they perform well enough on the road (8-1 ATS) to be a threat in this game. Also, if T.O. is too injured to perform or is limited in any way then I think New York is in a perfect position. Yes, Eli is a mess. But Tony Romo really isn’t much more predictable and then there’s the Wade Philips Factor. The player to watch for is Terry Glenn. If he is healthy and can be effective then we are in trouble. But I think the Giants can win this game outright so I’m taking the points.
2-Unit Play. Take #108 San Diego (+9.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 12)
Only six of San Diego’s last 21 losses have come by more than a touchdown and I think the defending champions are giving away a few too many this weekend. San Diego is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against AFC opponents and are 13-3-1 ATS as an underdog. Throw in the fact that they are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the RCA Dome, and the fact that if you stopped anyone on the street and asked them who was going to win this game they would say Indy in a rout, and I think we have a solid against-the-grain pick.
Gavozzi/ PPP
3*Indy
1* Indy under
2*NYGiants
3*NYGiants under
ASA Goy
Indy
Lineback
4* NY Giants +7 1/2
4* NY Giants/Dallas OVER 46 1/2
SPORTS INSIGHT
NY GIANTS at DALLAS Under 47
Sharp Betting Service
O U R P I C K S
San Diego Chargers (12-5) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
January 13, 2008 - RCA Dome - 1:00 PM ET
Opening line: Indianapolis -9
Line at the time of the pick: Indianapolis -9
Our pick: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -9.
The AFC West Champion Bolts are confident. San Diego has won eleven of its last 13 games (11-2-0 ATS) including a 23-21 home win over Indy in mid-November and its first playoff victory in 13 years, a 17-6 W over Tennessee in the Wild-Card round last Sunday.
In the first meeting of the season, Peyton Manning tossed a franchise-record six interceptions while reliable kicker Adam Vinatieri failed a 29-yard field goal with 1:31 left. Indianapolis was also missing several starters due to injury, including Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, Tony Ugoh, Freddy Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler.
This weekend, the defending Super Bowl Champions will be looking their revenge. Coming off a first-round bye, Indianapolis is extremely dangerous: well rested, at full strength…uh oh Peyton has had extra time to watch film.The stellar Chargers defense, lead by Antonio Cromartie and Shawne Merriman, will have a tough Sunday facing the third-ranked Colts attack (28.1 points per game). Star signal-caller Peyton Manning, who recorded his eighth 4,000-yard passing season, will shred San Diego with his outstanding weapons: Reggie Wayne (104 receptions for 1,510 yards and 10 TDs), RB Joseph Addai (1,072 rushing yards, 41 receptions, 15 TDs), Dallas Clark (58 catches for 616 yards and 11 TDs) and Anthony Gonzalez (37 catches for 576 yards and 3 TDs). The unit with get a big boost with the return of elite WR Marvin Harrison.
The Colts posted an impressive strong defensive effort during their Super Bowl run, and they didin´t miss a step this season allowing a league-low 16.4 points per game and giving up just 279.7 total yards per contest (3rd in the NFL).With the three-time All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates out (dislocated toe), the erratic Philip Rivers is not a threat for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders.
The Chargers still own one an offensive juggernaut in All-Pro RB LaDainian Tomlinson. However, L.T. won´t be enough to challenge Peyton and his mighty Colts.
Indianapolis sports an unbelievable amount of offensive weapons when the team is healthy Still thinking about the fist meeting? Despite the six picks and the key absences, Manning threw for 328 yards, two touchdowns and had a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter.
O U R P I C K S
New York Giants (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
January 13, 2008 - Texas Stadium - 4:30 PM ET
Opening line: Dallas -7.5
Line at the time of the pick: Dallas -7.5
Our pick: NEW YORK GIANTS +7.5.
The Cowboys earned the top seed in the NFC and swept the regular season series against the Giants. However, the G-Men have been more competitive down the stretch.While Dallas has dropped two of its last three outings, New York has won eight straight games on the highway while going 7-1-0 against the number in that span.
After securing a postseason berth with a hard-fought win at Buffalo, the Giants scared the unbeaten Patriots in the regular-season finale and then defeated the NFC South Champion Tampa Bay in last week´s Wild-Card round.NY has scored 97 points in those three contests, behind an extremely efficient Eli Manning. Despite facing the stingy Bucs defense without elite TE Jeremy Shockey, the much-criticized QB completed 20-of-27 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns.Manning is confident with the solid tandem of Amani Toomer (59 receptions, 3 TDs) and Plaxico Burress (70 receptions, 1,025 yards, 12 TDs) and a powerful ground attack that ranked fourth in the NFL (134.3 ypg) during the regular season.
Dallas´ offense is extraordinarily talented, however everything starts with Romo (4,211 passing yards, 36 TDs and 19 INT) and Owens (81 catches for 1,355 yards and 15 TDs).The 27-year-old quarterback is unfocused…unfortunately his romantic life is making headlines (yes, I am blaming Jessica). Romo was constantly under heavy duress in late-season losses to Philadelphia and Washington, and responded with two of his worst games. The Cowboys have scored just 32 points in the last three games.
On Sunday he will have his hands full with the vicious Giants defense: behind the ferocious trio of ends Osi Umenyiora (52 tackles, 13 sacks), Michael Strahan (57 tackles, 9 sacks) and Justin Tuck (65 tackles, 10 sacks), the unit has produced a league-leading 53 sacks.T.O. is expected to play on Sunday despite his high ankle sprain…but how effective will he be?
Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
DALLAS (-7.5) 28 NY Giants 12
New York was out of character last week in beating Tampa Bay, as the Giants committed no turnovers and were plus 3 in turnover margin. New York was -9 in turnover margin for the season heading into that game (while Tampa Bay was +13 in TO margin), so don?t expect the Giants to be turnover free again this week. Eli Manning looked in control of the offense, but he?s played error free football before and then looked horrible the very next week. The inconsistent Manning has rarely played error free in consecutive games and he?s actually been horrible in games following a game in which he did not throw an interception. In the last two seasons Manning has averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play with 14 interceptions in 9 games after not throwing a pick in the previous game, including 4.3 yppp and 8 picks in 4 such games this season. Manning may appear to be a better quarterback the last two weeks than he?s been all season but there is certainly no indication that he will continue to play well ? in fact it?s just the opposite. Manning averaged a sub-par 5.7 yppp this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and I don?t expect him to have much success against a Dallas defense that is 1.0 yppp better than average from week 4 on when star LB Greg Ellis joined the lineup after missing the first 3 games (for a second straight season the Cowboys were poor defensively without Ellis and good defensively with him). New York?s offensive strength in a rushing attack that averaged 4.7 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr to an average team), but the ground game will be slowed a bit by a solid Cowboys? run defense that gave up 4.1 ypr to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team. Overall, the Cowboys have a significant advantage with their defense over the Giants? offense and New York averaged just 4.5 yards per play at home against the Cowboys in week 10 (the good offensive production by the Giants at Dallas in week 1 was against a Cowboys? defense without Ellis).
The Giants defense is also better than their season numbers, as the 8.8 yards per play that they allowed the Cowboys in week 1 was a game in which Michael Strahan and CB Sam Madison did not start. Madison was put into the starting lineup the following week and the Giants? defense has 0.6 yppl better than average in 16 games since then. Dallas was 0.9 yppl better than average for the season offensively (6.1 yppl against temas that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Cowboys averaged 6.0 yppl in a 31-20 win at New York in week 10. Star WR Terrell Owens has practiced this week and is expected to play and those that remember Owens? great play in the Super Bowl for the Eagles a few years ago with a broken leg have no doubt that Owens will perform well with his sprained ankle. The Cowboys are 0.9 yppl better than average offensively, so they have an advantage over the Giants? defense in this game. The key to the Giants? defense is a pass rush that averages 3.2 sacks per game but the elusive Tony Romo was sacked a total of just 3 times in 2 games against New York this season, which may be why he has played so well against them (if you can avoid the pressure than throwing against a sub-par Giants? secondary is not that tough to do). My math model projects 5.7 yppl for Dallas in this game, which should be more than enough to pull away from a Giants team that is expected to struggle offensively.
Overall my math model favors Dallas by 8 points in this game, so there really isn?t any line value. However, Dallas applies to a 21-3 ATS playoff situation while New York applies to a negative 6-35-1 ATS playoff situation. Dallas also applies to a very strong 46-8-1 ATS situation that is 20-0 ATS recently. I?ll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ? or -10 points. I?ll also lean with the Under in this game.
San Diego (+9) 17 INDIANAPOLIS 24
The Chargers? defense has given Peyton Manning fits in recent years, including a horrible 6 interception performance in San Diego earlier this season. The Chargers were also the first team to beat the Colts in 2005 after Indy started the season 13-0. There are theories that Manning has trouble with good 3-4 defensive schemes and his recent problems with Pittsburgh and San Diego certainly give some credence to that hypothesis. That week 10 meeting between these teams happen to be the first game in which All-Pro CB Antonio Cromartie was in the starting lineup and the Chargers? defense has been great ever since. San Diego has allowed just 4.4 yards per play in 9 games with Cromartie in the starting lineup (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team) and that unit stacks up evenly against a Colts? attack that is 0.7 yppl better than average with Peyton Manning at quarterback. Manning gets favorite target Marvin Harrison back in the lineup this week after missing all but the first 3 games this season. Manning?s numbers in those 3 games with Harrison were outstanding (8.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) but it?s tough to say whether Harrison will be as effective as usual so I?ll only make a slight adjustment for his return (i.e. I?ll use Manning?s full season stats, which includes those first 3 games, instead of using just his stats from the games without Harrison as I?ve been doing most of the season).
While the Chargers? defense looks up to the task of containing the Colts? offense I am not so sure that their offense will be able to do their share with star TE Antonio Gates questionable to play. Gates dislocated his toe in the Chargers? win over Tennessee last week and he hasn?t practiced at all this week and will be a game time decision. If Gates plays he probably won?t be playing at full speed and Philip Rivers would surely struggle against the Colts? great pass defense. Rivers has been 0.4 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he averages 8.4 yards per pass when he throws a pass to Gates, compared to 6.3 yards per pass attempt to any other receiver. Rivers goes from 0.4 yppp better than average with Gates to 0.1 yppp worse than average without him and I?ll assume he?s out for this game (or at least not as effective as usual). The Colts? defense was a very good 1.1 yppp better than averaged defending the pass this season (5.1 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense ? excluding their week 17 game when their starters didn?t play much), so Rivers would likely have trouble throwing the ball even if Gates was 100%. San Diego does have LaDainian Tomlinson to run the ball, but San Diego?s rushing attack has actually been no better than average this season, averaging 4.3 ypr against teams that would combine to allow 4.3 ypr to an average team. The Colts are only 0.2 ypr better than average defensively, so Tomlinson could be a factor. Overall, the Chargers offense is average without Gates and the Colts are much better than average defensively, so it will be tough for San Diego to move the ball consistently. San Diego only averaged 3.8 ypr, 3.3 yppp and 3.5 yppl in their week 10 win over the Colts, as that win was the function of two return touchdowns and a +3 in turnover margin. In fact, to win that game by only 2 points despite having 2 return TD?s and 6 interceptions is an indication of how much better the Colts may be.
Overall, my math model favors Indy by just 8 points while assuming that Gates won?t play (and he may), so I?ll lean slightly with San Diego plus 7 ? points or more and I will also lean with the Under in this game as both defenses are very good.
Doc's Sports Picks For Football
3 Unit Play. #7 Take New York +7 ½ over Dallas (Sunday 4:30 pm Fox) The featured NFC Game of the Weekend takes place Sunday afternoon in Irving, TX. The Giants collected for us last week as a slight underdog and we expect a similar situation on Sunday playing a banged up Dallas team. Dallas has already beaten New York twice this season and one of the hardest things to do is beat a team three times in a season. The Giants defense is playing outstanding, as they allowed the Bucs to score just 14 points. WR Owens is questionable for this game and although he will likely play, he won’t be 100%. The best running back on the field will be Brandon Jacobs, who went over 1,000 yards on the season in just 11 games and averages nearly 5 yards a carry ever time he touches the ball. I don’t think the league wants the Cowboys to lose, therefore we will stick with the pointspread victory, as this game will go right down to the wire. Dallas 24, East Rutherford Giants 23.