Ben Burns
Game: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Under
The 'under' has been a profitable proposition in the opening week of the regular season in recent years. Two years ago, 12 of 16 games stayed below the total in Week 1. Last season, 11 of the 16 opening week games finished below the total. That's a combined mark of 23-9, which is a healthy 72%. Arizona at San Francisco was one of last season's Week 1 games which stayed below the total. The 49'ers scored the winning touchdown with 22 seconds remaining but that still only brought the final score to 20-17. Including that result, the UNDER was 6-2 in San Francisco's home games last season and 11-5 in their 16 games overall. That's no big surprise as the 2007 49'ers averaged a mere 13.7 points per game. With Mike Martz brought in to oversee the offense, this year's team should score more points. However, that won't necessarily happen immediately. Let's take a closer look at some situational stats.
The 49'ers, who are currently listed as slight underdogs, have seen the UNDER go 9-2 the last 11 times they were underdogs of four points or less. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have seen the UNDER go 11-6 the last 17 times that they were favored by four points or less. The over/under line is currently listed at either 41.5 or 42. That's worth mentioning as the UNDER is 13-5 the last 18 times that the 49'ers played a game with a total ranging from 35.5 to 42 and an even better 10-1 when the Cardinals have done so. Looking a little more closely and we find the UNDER at 6-1 when the 49'ers have played a home game with a total ranging from 38 to 42 and 4-1 when the Cardinals have played a road game with a total in that range. Don't be surprised if this one also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. At 41 or better, consider the UNDER
Wild Bill
Chiefs +17 (5 units)
Panthers +10 (5 units)
Vikings + 3 (5 units)
Packers-Vikings Over 38 1/2 (5 units)
Bengals -1 (5 units)
Jets -3 (5 units)
Jacksonville -2 1/2 (5 units)
Jax-Titans Over 37 (5 units)
Detroit-Falcons Over 41 (5 units)
Seattle -1 (5 units)
Carolina-Chargers Under 42 (5 units)
Arizona-49ers Under 42 (5 units)
Bears +9 1/2 (5 units)
Denver-Raiders Over 41 1/2 (5 units)
DUNKEL
Washington at NY Giants
Jim Zorn takes over the helm of a Washington team that upset the Giants on the road (22-10) in Week 14 of last season. The Redskins are the underdog pick (+3 1/2) in the opener according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
Game 451-452: Washington at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 135.248; NY Giants 135.636
Dunkel Line: Even; 37
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Under
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7
Game 453-454: Cincinnati at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.092; Baltimore 130.817
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under
Game 455-456: NY Jets at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.618; Miami 123.637
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 5; 32
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3); Under
Game 457-458: Kansas City at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 129.212; New England 143.292
Dunkel Line: New England by 14; 51
Vegas Line: New England by 17; 48
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+17); Over
Game 459-460: Houston at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.678; Pittsburgh 138.473
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Under
Game 461-462: Jacksonville at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 136.712; Tennessee 136.458
Dunkel Line: Even; 33
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Under
Game 463-464: Detroit at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.425; Atlanta 124.899
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under
Game 465-466: Seattle at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.097; Buffalo 129.061
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 36
Vegas Line: Pick; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle; Under
Game 467-468: Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 127.936; New Orleans 133.538
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over
Game 469-470: St. Louis at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.390; Philadelphia 131.242
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7 1/2); Over
Game 471-472: Dallas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.356; Cleveland 133.450
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+4 1/2); Over
Game 473-474: Carolina at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 129.950; San Diego 137.624
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 8; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9 1/2); Over
Game 475-476: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 126.237; San Francisco 125.916
Dunkel Line: Even; 37
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Under
Game 477-478: Chicago at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 133.231; Indianapolis 140.920
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+9 1/2); Under
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8
Game 479-480: Minnesota at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 132.394; Green Bay 132.714
Dunkel Line: Even; 37
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Under
Game 481-482: Denver at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 130.277; Oakland 126.408
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4; 36
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3); Under
Dustin Hawkins
Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Under 44
Lovie Smith and his Chicago Bears head to Indianapolis to take on Peyton Manning and Company. The Bears went from Superbowl team to missing the playoffs in one season. The Heart and Soul of Chicago, the defense is aging which lead to injuries. Matt Forte takes over for Cedric Benson as the starting running back and Kyle Orton reclaims his job as the starting QB!!!
The Colts has questions if Manning will start Sunday night?? This high-power offense has a lot of weapons. If Manning is out, the load will be put on Joseph Addai and that will eat the clock!! The defense is always underrated and should get a big Spark with All-pro Bob Sanders healthy and ready to show his skills. Look for big things from the Colts in 08
Prediction Bears 10 Colts 21
Pick : Under 44
Chip Chirimbes
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Play:New England Patriots -15
Okay, so the Patriots were 0-4 straight up and against the points during the preseason, son the played four playoff games including the Super Bowl last year and they didn't 'cover' once, okay so they only got the money only once in their last five regular season games. That means that they have gone 10 straight regular and post season gams without covering the pointspread. As a matter of fact they have only covered the number once in their last 13. So why am I on them this opening week? Well, first off they are playing the Kansaas City Chiefs and Tom Brady will be playing. Take the PATROITS and lay the heavy wood!
Wunderdog
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Pick: St. Louis +7.5
There wasn't a team in the NFL that had the injury issues to key players like the Rams did a year ago. They finished with a dreadful 3-13 mark - their worst finish since 1991. But certainly they are a better team than that. This team ran an offense behind a make-shift line each week, and the injury-depleted line stopped the Rams cold. Look for a healthy Marc Bulger to approach 2006 numbers. Many people have forgotten just how good he was back them (over 4,000 yards and 24 TDs with just eight interceptions). Even with a troubled offensive line, and four games missed due to injury, Stephen Jackson still rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. With a healthy line and healthy Jackson, look for the Rams to improve dramatically, and come out in game one with something to prove. Philadelphia played in some close games last season as five of their eight losses were by 4 points or less. The biggest problem was trying to turnover the opponent, as the Eagles managed just 19 takeaways all season. The Eagles biggest void, as has been the case for much of the Donovan McNabb era, will be at wide receiver as Kevin Curtis is out with a sports hernia. That leaves Reggie Brown, another oft-injured receiver, to carry the load. The other problem area for the Eagles is at linebacker, where they will field the youngest group in the league. This group may need time to get things in sync. Overall, this is a Rams team that is being treated by the odds-makers as not much different than their injury plagued '07 season, when the reality is they are more like the '06 team. I am backing the overlay here on the Rams.
Ted Sevransky
Kansas City Chiefs +16.0
This one is real simple. New England closed out the regular season last year with a 1-5 ATS mark, favored by double digits in every single game. Their only pointspread cover during that span came against a Steelers team that was talking trash all week, giving the Patriots that extra motivation that they needed. In the playoffs, New England went 0-3 ATS, all as double digit favorites. In the preseason, the Pats went 0-4 ATS, failing to sniff a pointspread cover in any of their four games. We’re talking about a team that is vastly overvalued by the betting marketplace, in the midst of a 1-12 ATS slide; 1-8 as double digit chalk.
Tom Brady didn’t take a snap in the preseason, and he didn’t even re-join practice until Wednesday. There are rumors swirling that Brady’s injury is far more serious than the Pats have indicated – potentially a fractured leg. His injury riddled offensive line is suspect at best. Key third down back Kevin Faulk is suspended; tight end Ben Watson has a bad knee; and Donte Stallworth will be catching passes in Cleveland this year. This is not the same explosive offense that we saw last year. And with question marks all over their secondary, the backdoor should be wide open for Kansas City if the Pats somehow manage to pull away with a big lead.
The Chiefs might be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, but let’s not forget head coach Herm Edwards penchant for playing conservative football, keeping the games close. In Edwards two seasons as the Kansas City head honcho, 13 of their 19 losses have come by eleven points or less. Look for that trend to continue here – the Pats have no business laying points in this range to even the weakest of foes here in Week 1. Take the Chiefs.
LT Profits
Carolina Panthers +9.0
Now there is no doubt that the San Diego Chargers have more raw talent than the Carolina Panthers, but that may not be so apparent on opening weekend.
Remember that neither LaDainian Tomlinson nor Antonio Gates played a down in preseason, and quarterback Philip Rivers is recuperating from a serious knee injury. We would not be surprised if the Chargers get off to a slow start this season as their stats get their timing down, not unlike last season when they looked very ordinary during the entire month of September.
The Panthers should be improved this season, as they upgraded the offensive line, improved the running game with the drafting of Jonathan Stewart and get quarterback Jake Delhomme back after elbow surgery. If Delhomme could return to his form before the operation, and he did nothing in the preseason to disprove this, then Carolina would have an excellent chance of winning the weak NFC South this season.
We may feel differently if this game were played in mid-season, but right now, the Panthers look like a very attractive big underdog while San Diego looks to get their stars in game shape.
Pick: Panthers +9
Tennessee Titans +3.0
The Jacksonville Jaguars had a dream season last year before losing to the New England Patriots in the second round of the playoffs, but we feel they have a tough opening week matchup with the Tennessee Titans here.
First of all, yes we know it was only preseason, but quarterback David Garrard looked extremely ordinary during the exhibition games, completing just 54 percent of his passes and garnering a very low 75.3 passer rating.
Now he must suddenly flip the switch vs. a devastating Tennessee defensive line, which is no easy feat. Secondly, the Jaguars rely on their two headed running game of Drew and Taylor, but the Titans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Now Vince Young has not developed into an NFL passer, but Tennessee does have a solid running game with the power running of LenDale White and the speed bursts of Chris Johnson, and do not forget that Young is probably a better running threat that passing threat right now. That may be key vs. a Jacksonville run defense that allowed a rather pedestrian 4.1 yards per carry last year.
We feel that the Titans will have more success with their ball control offense than Jacksonville will this week, and getting a field goal at home certainly does not hurt.
Pick: Titans +3
Craig Trapp
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars -3
This would definately be one of Craig's premium plays if this team was not having off the field transgressions. All of the positive momentum the Jaguars (11-5) generated with their 2007 season and by locking up quarterback David Garrard to a long-term deal in April has been threatened by some off-the-field episodes. Now the Jaguars (11-5) must put aside the distractions and refocus for a season which many believe could be the one in which they finally wrestle away the AFC South crown from Indianapolis, which has won five straight division titles. Garrard didn't have his best game in the team's wild-card playoff win in Pittsburgh, but in the divisional round against New England he completed 22 of 33 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns despite the Jaguars' 31-20 loss. The 30-year-old Garrard was rewarded with the richest contract in team history, a six-year, $60 million extension. Garrard's progress along with the running back tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Taylor give the Jaguars a potentially potent offense, though the wide receiver position remains a question mark. On the other hand there are many questions for TEN offense. Tennessee's chances to make a return appearance to the postseason are unquestionably tied to quarterback Vince Young, who proved in his second NFL season that he's still a work in progress. They have a very solid back in White but injuries have always hurt him. Most games this competitive come down to QB and coaching and without a doubt JAC beats them at both. Expect it to be low scoring with JAC pulling away in the 4th quarter. SCORE JAC 20 - TEN 13
Sports Insights
Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns
This is the most “lopsided-bet” game of the weekend. The public is betting this game like they know the score. The Dallas Cowboys were one of the best teams last year and are one of the Superbowl favorites this year.
While we agree that the Cowboys are once again “America’s Team” – we’re against the preseason hype surrounding the Cowboys. The hype is potentially creating an over-valuation on the Cowboys. This week’s NFL betting data confirms that the public loves “America’s team.” In this week’s game, Dallas is collecting almost five out of every six bets versus Cleveland.
The line opened at Dallas -3 but the avalanche of bets on Dallas has moved the line all the way to Dallas -6. That is a huge 3 point value. In the NFL, a field goal is a solid value. We’re taking the +6 offering at Sportsbook or SIA, looking for the Browns to keep it close.
Cleveland Browns +6
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
There is heavy one-sided action on the New York Jets -3. The Jets are receiving about 80% of all bets placed on this game. The Public has been swayed by the “Summer of Favre” media frenzy – and the memory of the Dolphins compiling a 1-15 season in 2007.
Let’s not forget that the Jets (4-12) only scored one more point last season than the one-win Dolphins, who were without their top two running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) for the majority of the season. In addition, Brett Favre still doesn’t have a full grasp of the Jets’ playbook, which will limit what plays the coaches can call.
We love the value in the Home Dog value in getting Miami +3, plus the fact that despite heavy one way action on the Jets, the line hasn’t moved. This is an excellent indicator that the Sharp money is on Miami +3. Our readers know that we always follow the Sharp money!
Miami Dolphins +3
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
Monday Night Football has the Favre-less Green Bay Packers at home versus the Minnesota Vikings. You would think that “the solid Packer playoff team” from last year lost half of their team in addition to their aging star, Brett Favre.
The visiting Minnesota Vikings are collecting about 70% of the bets. All of this public money has pushed the “number” off of the huge key number of 3. There is good value in getting Green Bay -2 at home. We’ll “bet against the public” and grab this contrarian value.
Green Bay Packers -2
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion
PITTSBURGH (-6.5) 21 Houston 20
Houston has gone from 2-14 in 2005 to 6-10 in 2006 and then to 8-8 last season, and I expect the Texans to continue to make strides this season thanks to an improved defense. The Texans defense rated at 0.4 yards per play worse than average for the season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team – not including their week 17 game in which Jacksonville rested their starters), but the season ending injury to top CB Dunta Robinson actually led to improvement after a horrible first half of the season. It wasn’t that Robinson was playing poorly, as he was playing pretty well, but his injury allowed rookie CB Fred Bennett to enter the starting lineup and Bennett was unbelievably good. Bennett started the final 8 games after Robinson was injured and he allowed a league best 4.8 yards per pass thrown his direction while breaking up 17 passes, including 15 in his 8 starts. Those are incredible numbers for a cornerback and the Texans were actually 0.2 yards per pass play better than average defensively from week 9 on with Bennett in the lineup, after being 0.7 yppp worse than average the first half of the season. Part of the credit for the improved pass defensive also goes to former #1 overall draft pick DE Mario Williams, who had 10 sacks in the final 7 games of the season after a year and a half of disappointing results. The Texans are loaded with young talent defensively and I expect them to be a better than average defensive team with CB Jacques Reeves being signed away from Dallas to play the cornerback spot opposite Bennett, which takes Demarcus Faggins and his 8.9 yards per pass attempted against him out of the lineup (Reeves allowed 7.7 ypa at Dallas last season).
With the defense picking up where they left off the second half of last season, the Texans should be a good team given that they’re offense was already better than average. Houston averaged 5.6 yppl last season against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team (excluding their week 17 game against Jacksonville’s backups) despite being without star WR Andre Johnson for 7 games. Johnson averaged 9.9 yards per pass thrown to him last season and the Texans would have been 0.2 yppl better had he played the entire season. Quarterbacks Matt Schaub and backup Sage Rosenfels both had very good seasons last year and should do so again, while the rushing attack should be improved with the new blocking schemes of offensive line guru Alex Gibbs, who coached the successful lines at Denver before having success with his zone blocking technique in Atlanta from 2004 through 2006 (Atlanta’s line was horrible without him last season). Gibbs was lured out of his one year retirement and the Texans should have better results in the rushing numbers, which were pretty bad last season (3.8 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team).
Houston had the 3rd best special teams in the league last season thanks to kick returner Andre Davis and his 30.3 yards per return and 3 TD’s. I don’t expect Davis to keep up that pace, but the Texans should still be solidly better than average in special teams. Overall, the Texans should continue to improve and are certainly a playoff caliber team. The only problem is a tough division in which the other 3 teams all won 10 games or more last season.
Pittsburgh continues to be among the best handful of defensive teams in the NFL, but the Steelers are getting gradually worse offensively as their once dominant offensive line slowly deteriorates. Pittsburgh wasn’t as good running the ball last season (4.3 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) and the Steelers’ line allowed quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to get sacked 53 times in 16 games. The loss of star G Alan Faneca to the Jets in free agency makes the line worse this season, so the Steelers could once again be worse than average offensively after averaging just 5.3 yards per play last season (excluding the meaningless week 17 game in which the starters didn’t play) against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Despite the loss of Faneca I expect the rushing attack to be better with rookie RB Rashard Mendehall giving starting back Willie Parker more rest, allowing both back to stay fresh. Ben Roethlisberger was actually below average last season, averaging 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB, but he was 0.4 yppp better than average in 2006 and should improve on last season’s numbers.
Pittsburgh’s defense had a great 2007 campaign, allowing 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Nothing has really changed for Pittsburgh’s defense this season, so I expect another very good unit in 2008. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been poor the last couple of seasons, but the punt return unit should be better with Eddie Drummond running them back. Still, kicker Jeff Reed doesn’t get good distance on his kickoffs and the coverage units haven’t been very good. Pittsburgh should be as bad in special teams as they’ve been the last two seasons, but they should be below average.
Overall the Steelers appear to be a solid team once again, but Houston is an underrated squad if their talented young defense plays at the same level that they played over the second half of 2007. My math model would have only favored Pittsburgh by 5 ½ points using last season’s stats for both teams, but Houston is a better team now than they were on average last season and my ratings favor the Steelers by only 3 points. Aside from the line value the Texans also apply to a decent 92-61-4 ATS week 1 contrary indicator and I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.
ATS Consultants
Detroit (-3) over Atlanta
The Lions have a much improved team and should be able to pressure rookie QB Matt Ryan into making turnovers for Atlanta.
Sharp Money Moves
Carolina (+9') over San Diego
Buffalo (pk) over Seattle
JB Sports
ATL / DET Under 41.0
Detroit is looking to get back to a more conventional offense, emphasizing the running game and trying to lessen the hits that QB Kitna took in the old offense under former OC Martz. New Atlanta head coach Mike Smith comes over from Jacksonville, and like the Jaguars, wants to establish defense and a strong running game. With QB Matt Ryan making his debut, look for an even more conservative game plan. Look for this one to stay under the 41.
Gregg Price
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
Play:Dallas Cowboys -5.5
Dallas - I'm not buying into Cleveland just yet, its only been 1 good year. Romo has a lot to prove this year, he needs to win a playoff game. If Anderson has any lingering effects from the concussion it will be along day for him. Dallas is fast on D and they should get the win and cover.
Alex Smart
Miami Dolphins +3.0
The NY Jets are now the publics flavor of the week , as Brett Favre mania takes hold in the countries biggest metropolitan media center. The peoples choice awards for betting into bad lines is currently front and center for the Vegas and off shore books for this Sundays NFL opening action, as cash keeps flying in on a Jets team that lost 7 of their 8 road games SU last season.
A lot of square bettors are laying their money down on this game , strictly because of the Favre factor and the Dolphins perceived ineptness, because of a 1 win season in 2007, and array of coincidental and meaningless trends.
A closer look at this Jets @ Dolphins battle, features a matchtup between two pretty evenly matched teams , on both sides of the ball, with both quarterbacks ( Favre NYJs ) and (Pennington ,Fins ) trying to learn new systems.
The edge in my humble opinion, contrary to popular belief resides with President Bill Parcells and new head coach Tony Sparano as home dogs.
Take the points with Miami -Projected score: Dolphins 17 NY Jets 16