Matt Foust
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Over 36.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to Tennessee to face the Titans at LP Field in Nashville on Sunday. This is the second season in a row that these two heated AFC South rivals open the season against each other. Last year the Titans dropped the Jags13-10 in Jacksonville as a +7 road dog. This year the Jags are a -3 road favorite and the total is set at 36.5.
We are going to go with the Over in this division contest. Last year the Titans ran all of the Jaguars to open the season, rushing for 282 yards on 48 carries and in the process, they ground the game to a halt. Jacksonville compiled just 272 yards in their limited possession time. For the game at Tennessee, the Titans took the exact opposite approach, rushing just 19 times and throwing it 41 times. Meanwhile, the Jags rushed it 44 times it threw it just 23 times. The score (28-13 JAC) easily went over the 35 point total.
Both teams possess quality rush defenses and will likely force the other team to utilize the passing game at some point. Both squads also have big play candidates in the backfield (Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, Vince Young, etc.) who are capable of breaking off long runs and scoring in quick fashion. The Jaguars had some changes on the defensive side of the ball too and it may take a few games for them to fully mesh.
I look for a good mix (run and pass) from both teams and both offenses should be able to do enough to get this over the low total in rather easy fashion.
Things to consider: The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six between these two at Tennessee when the Titans were a home dog. The average game score was 49.2 and the total was never below the 36.5 line on Sunday’s game.
Pick: Take the OVER 36.5 -110
John Ryan
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
Play:Seattle Seahawks +1
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Seattle – Buffalo has high expectations with many Bills players guaranteeing that this will be a playoff bound season. Their first game can’t get much more difficult with the Seahawks coming into town. Buffalo has a new offensive scheme and several new players on defense. In summary, I just don’t see, based on published reports and pre-season performances, how Buffalo will be able to play a complete game from beginning to end. Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters is holding out in a contract dispute. Defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, outside linebacker Kawika Mitchell and cornerback Leodis MvKelvin, the team's first-round draft pick, make their debuts on a revamped defense. Seattle’s defense is very good and filled with Pro Bowlers. This defensive unit will set the tone and control the LOS throughout the game. I think it makes total sense too, that the Seattle offense will try and run as many plays as possible with quick huddles and even using a no huddle every so often. In setting a fast tone, it will force Buffalo to stay with personnel on the field and allow Seattle to identify favorable matchups to exploit. AiS shows a 73% probability that Seattle will win this game. It also reveals an 83% probability that they will gain a MINIMUM of 300 total yards on offense. Note that Seattle is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Here is a significant money line angle that shows Buffalo with a 1-7 mark losing -7.2 units when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Take Seattle
Nelly
Philadelphia – over St. Louis
The Eagles defense should be among the best in the league and St. Louis is a team that falls apart if there are mistakes in the passing game. Getting RB Jackson up to speed may take a little more time and the Rams are in a phase one of rebuilding still even though there is growing pressure on the coaching staff. The Rams have not been a strong underdog team and Philadelphia is ready to take care of business at home. QB McNabb looked sharp in preseason action and the Eagles can start strong with a big win and cover despite the growing line.
Tom Freese
Dallas at Cleveland
Dallas is in a 29-8 ATS Super System that says to Play On favorites in the first week of the season if they failed ATS in their last 3 games last year. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS their last 5 September games. Cleveland looks to be a public team this year after their 10-6 Straight Up and 12-4 ATS record last year. It will be a different dynamic this year for the Browns with expectations very high in Cleveland. The Browns are up against some heavy freight in this contest. PLAY ON #471 DALLAS -
Lenny Del Genio
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns Sep 7 2008 4:15PM
Prediction: Over
This will be the 10th consecutive season the Cleveland Browns have opened the year at home. Previously, they are just 1-8 SU, so as attractive as the points look, we can?t take them. What we will do though is go Over. Wade Phillips is 11-2 Over on the road in non-conference games. Dallas was 2nd in the NFL last year scoring over 28 PPG. Cleveland averaged over 26 PPG at home. The Browns also began the year by going Over in 9 of their first 10 in 2007. Take Over.
PHIL STEELE
KC/N.ENGLAND under 44.5(totals play of week)
PRO INFO SPORTS
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: UNDER 41
Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)
The Lions open the 2008 campaign in Atlanta as 3 point road favorites. This is a role they have certainly struggled with in the past, posting a record of 0-7 both SU and ATS since 1997. Lions coach Marinelli is also 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS on the road.
Atlanta will start 1st Round Draft Choice QB Matt Ryan from Boston College . A new coach and new QB mean growing pains and an offense that will struggle to start the season. Although the Falcon defense was able to hold opponents to only 12 points per game during the preseason which shows they do have the desire to put last years fiasco behind them and concentrate on the job at hand.
We believe the combination of all these factors will lead to a low scoring affair in the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon. We also note that these two teams have combined for a 7-1 Under record in Game One of the season over the last four years.
Technical support for our selection comes from systems that tell us to Play Under on NFL Week One favorites of 4 points or less. This system has been perfect posting a record of 15-0 Under the last 15 qualifying contests. Week One dome games have also produced a perfect Under record going 9-0 Under the last nine times.
A Detroit team that struggles on the road and a "new" Falcons team along with strong technical support combine for a nice opening week 2* Under Selection winner in the Lions / Falcons match up.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Detroit / Atlanta UNDER 41
Old Ball Coach Picks
Carolina +9
New Orleans -3.5
3-0 Saturday
Wins on Temple +6.5
Rice +3
Mississippi +7
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Jets at MIAMI +3
Of course this game now has serious interest for the nation as Brett Favre is running the show for New York, while the exiled Chad Pennington gets a crack at his former team.
We will take the points with the host in this spot, as we liked what we saw from Miami in the preseason, and we feel they are out to make a statement in this game.
Reports out of the south Florida area are that the Fly-boys are struggling with the heat, and humidity, and that certainly could play a huge factor come the latter stages in this game.
All of the series numbers point in New York's favor, as the Jets have won the last 4 meetings outright, and are on a 8-0-1 spread run the last 9 times these division rivals have met. Obviously, Pennington was a big part of New York's dominance over Miami. Today, the shoe is on the other foot, and we will glady go against Brett Favre in his Jets debut.
Play on Miami.
2♦ MIAMI
Karl Garrett
Kansas City +16 at NEW ENGLAND
The G-Man thinks the number on this game is absolutely ludicrous!
How can a New England team that finished the preseason at 0-4 - and looked very bad in doing so - be favored by this much?
Tom Brady didn't play a down in the preseason, and chances he is 100% seem very unlikely to me. Sure the Patriots own a 19-game regular season win streak, but the impost has been a little lofty on them down the stretch, as New England has covered just once in their last 9 games.
Kansas City went just 4-12 a season ago, but the Chiefs were able to cover in 6 of their 8 road games a season ago.
It's not one of Week One's marquee games, but too many question marks surround this New England team for me to say with certainty that they are going to cover this hefty impost.
Would rather side with the huge dog in the first game of the year.
Take Kansas City.
1♦ KANSAS CITY
Jeff Benton
Lions minus the points at Atlanta.
First off, Matt Ryan may prove to be a good NFL quarterback over time for the Falcons, but are you willing to trust him to succeed in his very first start behind a below-average offensive line? I’m not. I mean, he’s probably got more raw talent than Joey Harrington and Chris Redman – Atlanta’s two QBs last year – but at least those two had experience facing NFL defenses, and you saw how that turned out.
Now, I do like the Falcons’ upgrade at RB with Michael Turner joining Jerrious Norwood. But really, how much room is either of those guys going to have to run when opposing defenses put eight or nine in the box and dare Ryan to beat them? Even Detroit is smart enough to employ that tactic!
Speaking of the Lions, yeah, they’ve been among the biggest underachievers in football over the past decade. But at least they showed some signs of life last year, starting out 6-2 before sputtering to a 7-9 finish. And Detroit beat the weak teams on its schedule, including the Raiders, Vikings, Bears (twice), Broncos and Chiefs. And while I try not to put a whole lot of emphasis on the preseason, I think it is pertinent to point out that the Lions were the only team to finish August with a perfect record. And they looked good on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 80-32. Not only were the 32 points allowed the fewest in the league, but no other squad gave up fewer than 41. Take that however you want it, but if the defense played that well, why can’t it dominate against a rookie quarterback leading one of the weakest offenses in the league?
Throw in the fact that the Lions have a ton of weapons on offense, led by veteran QB Kitna, and they’ve cashed in five straight season-openers, and I’ll back the road chalk with confidence.
5♦ DETROIT LIONS
Norm Hitzges
Triple Play
Philadelphia -7.5 vs St. Louis
Double Plays
Cincinnati -1.5 vs Baltimore
Dallas -5.5 vs Cleveland
San Francisco/Arizona Under 42
Jacksonville/Tennessee Under 36.5
Single Plays
Tennessee +3 vs Jacksonville
Indianapolis -9.5 vs Chicago
Carolina +9 vs San Diego
Buffalo -1 vs Seattle
Dallas/Cleveland Under 49
Buffalo/Seattle Over 38.5
Detroit/Atlanta Under 41
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Tampa Bay over New Orleans
When the Bucs battle the Saints in New Orleans in opening week action on today's NFL card they'll do so knowing head coach John Gruden has won his first division game of the season 7 out of 8 times this decade. In addition, Tampa improved both their their offensive and defensive averages last season while the Saints declined both offensively and defensively. Grab the points in this upset maker as New Orleans dips to 1-13 ATS as a division home favorite here today.
Jimmy The Moose
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last season many expected the Saints to win the division and be serious Super Bowl contenders. Neither happened and the Saints missed out on the playoffs. The NFC South division winners were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and today they come into New Orleans as a dog and expected to lose out to the Saints again in the division race. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. Tampa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. The Saints are talented on offense but the D is a mystery going into week 1. The Saints are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games. New Orleans is 17-36-2 in their last 55 home games. The Saints are 2-4 SU 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the Bucs. Tampa is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to New Orleans. Play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +.
Stephen Nover
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Tennessee Titans +3
The Tennessee Titans are an under-the-radar-screen, non-public team often undervaled on the betting line.
I believe that's the case again in this matchup with the Titans being three-point home underdogs. The Titans are 13-5-2 (72 percent) against the spread during the past 20 times they've been a 'dog.
Tennessee pounded the Jaguars for a combined 458 yards rushing in two games last season. The Jaguars are now without run-stuffing tackle Marcus Stroud and the Titans have upgraded their rushing attack with the addition of speedy rookie Chris Johnson.
Neither team has much of a passing attack. The Jaguars were hoping newcomer Jerry Porter could be their No. 1 wideout, but he's injured and won't play.
Jacksonville also is banged-up in its offensive line with center Brad Meester out.
It has been a trying and distracting week for the Jaguars. Backup lineman Richard Collier was shot. Team members spent time visiting him in the hospital as he recoveres from gunshot wounds.
This figures to be a tough, in-the-trenches defensive battle with lots of rushing. I respect Jacksonville's running back duo of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor.
However, the combination of key Jacksonville injuries, the distraction of having a team member nearly killed and Tennessee's record as an underdog, puts me on the Titans.