John Fisher
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +15
Gregg Price
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Dallas Cowboys -5.5
Sean Higgs
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Over 49
Cajun-Sports
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: 2* Buffalo Bills -1
Seattle travels to the East Coast to begin the 2008 NFL season and they are 1-7 ATS in this situation their last 8. Seattle is also 2-10 ATS their last 12 on the highway overall.
Not only do the Seahawks have to travel across the country they also played two games in five days to wrap up the preseason. Seattle finds themselves in a tough spot to start the new season.
Buffalo made improvements on their defensive front by adding DT Stroud; they also return LB Posluszny and FS Simpson after losing them early in the 07 season. A much improved defensive team to go along with one of the best special team units in the league should make a difference for this Bills team this season.
On offense the Bills have second year QB Trent Edwards to go along with RB Marshawn Lynch who rushed for 1,115 yards last season. Edwards and Lynch became the first rookie QB/RB tandem to have 1,000 yards passing and rushing since the merger in 1970.
Seattle played a weak schedule last season and was exposed in the playoffs by the Packers. The Bills were absent from the playoffs but faced a much tougher schedule and they should be ready to get the win here.
From a technical standpoint we know NFC West teams are 21-41-1 ATS on the road in non-division play over the last three seasons. We also note that the Seahawks are 15-26-1 ATS against the AFC East Division which includes a record of 4-17 ATS as a favorite or underdog of two or less points. Finally we dig a little deeper into Seattle’s struggles when facing this division and we see they are a perfect 0-11 ATS their last 11 in this role.
Finally we have an NFL Super System that says to:
Play ON a non-Saturday team (not a favorite of more than 5 points or underdog of more than 15 points) before a non-Monday game at Jacksonville.
17-0 ATS since 2002
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* BUFFALO BILLS -1
Larry Ness
CAR +9.5 vs SDC
Norv Turner quieted all his critics, who were 'howling' after his Chargers opened the '07 season 0-3. Marty had basically been dumped after another string of playoff failures but San Diego has much talent as any team in the NFL and a 1-3 start was unacceptable. However, Turner and his team "hung in there" and beginning with a 41-3 win at Denver in Week 5, won 10 of its final 12 regular season games (10-2 ATS). Then despite injuries to LT, Gates and Rivers, Turner's Chargers did what Marty's couldn't. That is win in the playoffs. San Diego beat the Titans 17-6 in the wild card round, upset the Colts in Indy 28-24 and hung tough all game at New England in the AFC title game, before losing 21-13. The Panthers were expected to compete for the NFC South title but when Delhomme went down in the team's third game, the season was all but over. Delhomme wound up with Tommy John surgery but he's seems to be fine and let's remember he had eight TDs and just one INT (64%) before getting hurt last year. WR Steve Smith is serving a suspension in this game but Fox has this team thinking "run-first" this year. DeAngelo Williams is a talented back and Oregon rookie Jonathan Stewart looks good (Foster is long gone). The OL is totally changed (new players or new positions for old ones) but expected to be good. The Panthers hope to return to the swarming, punishing defense they displayed en route to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and the NFC championship game in 2005. They were second and third in the league in yards allowed in those two seasons, but have been middle-of-the-pack the last two years. DE Julius Peppers is in his contract year and expect Carolina's defense to be much better in '08. LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a league-best 1,474 yards and 15 TDs in the 2007 regular season but took more than just a little criticism after being limited to just four plays in the playoff loss to New England because of a sprained knee. It didn't help his rep that QB Philip Rivers limped through the postseason with a significantly more damaged knee ligament (had off-season surgery). However, LT is the league's best back and don't expect any "carry over" to this year. TE Gates is still being bothered by an injured toe and center Hardwick will miss with a foot injury. WR Chris Chambers was a great mid-season pickup from Miami and he'll get a full season with the Chargers in '08. The Chargers have plenty of talent on D but somewhat underachieved last year in terms of yards allowed. However, they were No. 1 with 48 takeaways (30 INTs), which made up for it. LB Shawne Merriman has decided to play the season on two injured knee ligaments and fellow LB Cooper is serving a suspension, neither of which is good news. The Chargers were 8-1 SU and ATS at home LY (including the postseason) but Carolina is 23-10-2 as a rod dog under Fox, with the team going 22-5 ATS as a dog in games started by Delhomme. This is a HUGE pointspread and I'm taking the points with the Panthers.
Bob Majors
CAR +9.0 vs SDC
Carolina Panthers travel to the San Diego Charges. Panthers may be taken too lightly here and the Charger defense is hurting with several player suspect in playing. Caroline is 22-5 ATS last 27 games as underdog with Delhomme in as QB. Don't be surprise with an outright upset of the Chargers. Take the Panthers
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans/ Tampa Bay Under 42.5
The Under is 15-2 in Tampa's first game of the season and 6-1 when they are div road dogs of less than 5, while the Under is 8-1 in New Orleans' game 1 of the season and 11-5 when they are division home favs of 3 or more. A couple of solid systems for this one as well. System 1: Game played in a dome on opening weekend have gone 0-9 Under the last 4 years. System 2: NFC South games played in September are a perfect 0-10 Under if the home team is favored the last 6 years. I realize that the last 5 in this series has gone over the total, but this is the spot for that streak to stop. One thing this Tampa team knows how to do is play defense, as the Bucs come off a season in which they allowed just 17 ppg and then followed that up by allowing just 11.3 ppg in the preseason. Tampa is a team that has to rely on their defense as the offense just isn't that good as they put up just 20 ppg last year and just 19.3 ppg in the preseason. The Saints offense really struggled in 3 of their 4 preseaon games and they scored just 23 points in their final 2 games. Defense has been a sore spot for this team, but they did play much better in the preseason as they allowed 14 or less in 3 of the 4 games. The Bucs offense is not great so they will look to run and control the clock, so they can keep the ball away from the high powered Saint offense. Both defenses will really step up in this game and keep the score in the lower 30's.
2 UNIT PLAY
Cinncinnati -1 over BALTIMORE
This Ravens team is a mess right now and it all starts at the QB position. Joe Flacco? Are you kidding me? The Ravens offense put up just 17 ppg last year and 12.3 ppg in the preseason and I don't feel that Joe Flacco will be the savior here. A low point of the preseason was in the 3rd game (the game where most starters play a lot more). In that game Baltimore lost to St Louis 24-10 and where outgained by 202 yards on the night. The offense or defense did not play all that well in that game. Carson Palmer is one of the top QB's in the league and he has a ton of weapons to go to. The Bengal Defense was a sore spot last year, but I see them have a big day vs a bad offense today. The Ravens have a rookie caoch, with a rookie QB and neither will get off to a winning start here as Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer find a way to win. Should be close but the Bengals will pull it out in the end.
I ALSO LIKE
New England/ Kansas City Under 44
1 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ Houston Over 43
With an OU line of 41-43 in Pittsburgh home games the Over is 8-1 since 2002. Im expecting some high scoring games with Houston this year as the Offense is good, but the defense is bad. Last year Houston games averaged 48 ppg overall and 47.5 ppg on the road. That road trend held true to form in the preseason as their 2 road games averaged 51.5 ppg. Last year the Steelers scored 21 or more points in all but 1 of their home games (including playoffs), as they averaged 25.6 ppg at the Ketchup Bottle. The Steeler offense didn't look that great in the preseason, but I feel they will find this soft Houston defense to their liking. I feel that both teams will get thier share of points and put about 48 points on the board.
I ALSO LIKE
BUFFALO -1 over Seattle
Rocketman
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Play:1* Cincinnati -1 1/2
Cincinnati is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Baltimore last 3 years. Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC. Ravens are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on grass. Ravens are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North. Ravens are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati
Bettors World
2* Houston Texans +7 -115 over Pittsburgh Steelers
In with the new and out with the old? Well, perhaps not. But you could say that this is a matchup of a team on the rise against a team that perhaps has peaked. Though we can't expect much of a decline from the Steelers this year. They return 19 of 22 starters from last years team which went 7-1 at home. The Texans on the other hand are in off an 8-8 year and expectations continue to grow. Gary Kubiak enters his 3rd year at the helm and we'd expect his scheme to start kicking in.In this day and age of NFL football, we see teams go from worst to first. Perhaps the fact that the Steelers made virtually no changes during the offseason is enough reason to believe the decline has started. Losing at home in the playoffs to the Jags last year may very well be the game pundits point to as the start of the decline. This weeks game may very well be a continuation.Early season handicapping can be tough. It really comes down to a handicappers ability to size up talent and off season moves. Not always an easy task. However, it's not the only tool available to bettors. The ability to read and interpret betting patterns is huge. In doing this successfully, you're actually able to take advantage of some extremely sharp players information and work, without necessarily ever knowing just what that info is. The lines on these week one games have been posted since mid July. There are some very sharp sportsbooks out there that cater to a heavily slanted wiseguy clientele. A couple don't even accept American action but the wiseguys all have ways into these books. In analyzing the betting patterns at these books and then taking a look at the betting trends publicly available to us at a book like Sportsbook.com, we see a game which the majority of the action coming in is on the Steelers and yet we see the line having moved from 7 to 6.5 and even 6 in spots. We're going to ride that trend here in week one. Texans +7 -115 for a small 2* play.
2* Titans +3 over Jags
The betting patterns described in the above game fit this game as well. But perhaps this ones easier to interpret. The Titans figure to be even better than they were a year ago going 10-6 and earning a trip to the playoffs. There was a 3 game stretch in November where they lost 3 in a row. Other than that, their other regular season losses were a 2 point loss to the Colts, a 3 point loss to the Bucs and an overtime loss to the Chargers. Fisher always has this team ready to play. Young has more weapons this year. The Jags have a world of off the field problems with the latest being the shooting of Richard Collier. An outright Titan win shouldn't surprise anyone. Titans +3
GOLD SHEET - KEY RELEASES
Buffalo by 10 over Seattle
Tampa Bay by 7 over New Orleans
Under the Total in the Detroit-Atlanta game
Power Plays
4* Selections
4* New England
4* Arizona / San Francisco OVER
Wunderdog
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Pick: St. Louis +7.5
There wasn't a team in the NFL that had the injury issues to key players like the Rams did a year ago. They finished with a dreadful 3-13 mark - their worst finish since 1991. But certainly they are a better team than that. This team ran an offense behind a make-shift line each week, and the injury-depleted line stopped the Rams cold. Look for a healthy Marc Bulger to approach 2006 numbers. Many people have forgotten just how good he was back them (over 4,000 yards and 24 TDs with just eight interceptions). Even with a troubled offensive line, and four games missed due to injury, Stephen Jackson still rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. With a healthy line and healthy Jackson, look for the Rams to improve dramatically, and come out in game one with something to prove. Philadelphia played in some close games last season as five of their eight losses were by 4 points or less. The biggest problem was trying to turnover the opponent, as the Eagles managed just 19 takeaways all season. The Eagles biggest void, as has been the case for much of the Donovan McNabb era, will be at wide receiver as Kevin Curtis is out with a sports hernia. That leaves Reggie Brown, another oft-injured receiver, to carry the load. The other problem area for the Eagles is at linebacker, where they will field the youngest group in the league. This group may need time to get things in sync. Overall, this is a Rams team that is being treated by the odds-makers as not much different than their injury plagued '07 season, when the reality is they are more like the '06 team. I am backing the overlay here on the Rams.
Chris Chirimbes
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Play:New England Patriots -15
Okay, so the Patriots were 0-4 straight up and against the points during the preseason, son the played four playoff games including the Super Bowl last year and they didn't 'cover' once, okay so they only got the money only once in their last five regular season games. That means that they have gone 10 straight regular and post season gams without covering the pointspread. As a matter of fact they have only covered the number once in their last 13. So why am I on them this opening week? Well, first off they are playing the Kansaas City Chiefs and Tom Brady will be playing. Take the PATROITS and lay the heavy wood!
CAPPERS ACCESS
Dolphins
Bills
49er's
Bears
Carlo Campanella
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: New York Jets
This NY Jets at Miami match-up has trap game written all over it. The Jets (4-12) acquire QB Bret Favre and only open up favored by a field goal against a Dolphins team that won only 1 game last season! While the public will jump on Brett and the Jets, well take the points here with Miami, who brought in Bill Parcells to help new Head Coach Tony Sparano plug the holes on both sides of the ball. Miami plays this with double revenge after dropping both meetings to the Jets last year- Theyll get it as these Jets lost their only game as road chalk OUTRIGHT last year, 14-17, against another Division foe Buffalo.
7* Play On Miami
John Fina
Selection: Kansas City/New England Under 44
Today we see a low-scoring game as the Kansas City Chiefs do battle with the New England Patriots. Here we have an excellent opportunity to take advantage of a market that has set the total way to high for this game. Last season, the Patriots had the betting community in awe with their unyielding passing game. Last year was a very special season for New England as we saw high energy from the Patriots in their determination to reach the top. But that momentum is about to change this year with Coach Bill Belichick taking the team on a slower paced season. They are going save their best performances for the playoffs while attempting to get through situations like these with minimal risk and injury. This is not a new concept for New England. There were a few times last season when the patriots played Under as home favorites. This game will be similar because they wont have any issues controlling the game flow. But even if they wanted to, speeding up this game would be difficult since Kevin Faulk, Patriots key 3rd down back wont be in this one. Plus, Tom Brady hasnt spent much time with the Wide Receiving corps. Belichick will also be making sure that they are saving their best for next weeks game vs. Brett Favre and the Jets as they travel to the Meadowlands. Chiefs coach Herm Edwards also wants to see a slow paced game, in fact he really doesnt have much of a choice. With QB Brody Croyle having yet to prove his worth in the NFL, Edwards has to minimize the pressure. He'll do that by navigating Larry Johnson left, right and up the middle. The Chiefs have had 5 games were they were road underdogs by more than one touchdown since Edwards took over the team. Those 5 games played Under at 4-1. Combined, they ended with a total of 57 points below what was predicted; ending with 11.4 per game. This, in part, is due to the way that Edwards slows the pace as well as the fact that they are unable to open up the offense, making a back door challenge unattainable for Kansas City. To say the least, we should see a low-scoring game today. Take the Kansas City Chiefs/New England Patriots Under 44
Chris Jordan
N.Y. Jets -3 at MIAMI
This might be the easiest road play on the board, and could very well be a premium play, but I am giving it to you for free so you get some quality on this first week of NFL action.
It’s the game that ends up being the storyline of Week 1. Brett Favre against Chad Pennington. And the question will be which quarterback has learned his new offense faster? I’d have to give the edge to Favre, a much-better veteran obviously than Pennington, who occasionally looked lost when he was with the Jets. And he supposedly knew that offense. Can Pennington help out Miami’s defense by alerting it to certain schemes the Jets may run?
It’s possible, but I’d think with a guy like Favre, there will plenty of new things in place as well. And let’s be real here, the Jets own the better offensive line, and will be able to give Favre plenty of time to perform in this one. They also have the more stable defense as new Miami head coach Tony Sparano and team vice prez Bill Parcells rebuild the team.
The Jets have dominated this series of late, 7-1 straight up the last 8 meetings and 8-0-1 versus the line in the last nine games against Miami. Take the road flyers in this one.
3♦ JETS