Tony Weston
We’re turning our fortunes around now as we kickoff the first Sunday of the NFL in style led by our first NFL Comp Play winner today as we’re taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the New Orleans Saints.
Playing in one of the nastiest divisions in all of football these teams will beat up on each other as each starts the season with legit aspirations to win the NFC South.
But consider that the Buccaneers come into this game having swept the Saints last season both SU and ATS and are on a 7-2 run ATS against New Orleans. Also, The Bucs are on a 5-0 run ATS in the Superdome and are 7-3 ATS as a division road underdog, is on a 5-1 ATS run in the NFC South and is 4-1 ATS in September.
The Saints, on the other hand, are 6-13 ATS their last 18 games, are 1-10 ATS as a home favorite their last 11 and are on a huge skid at home where they’re 17-36-2 their last 55 games in the Superdome.
Also keep in mind that the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games between these two and the ’dog is on a 9-3 ATS run.
Take the points and take the Bucs on the road today.
3♦ BUCCANEERS
Matt Rivers
Sunday take the points with the Chiefs.
New England is still a great team and should win this game fairly easily but there are too many factors going our way to not grab the healthy sum of points.
Larry Johnson is a lot healthier than last season and should be more effective as well. With the probable rain and wind from Tropical Storm Hanna this game should turn into a running affair and therefore even things out a bunch in terms of talent which New England is clearly superior in.
Remember late last season how the Jets hung with the Pats at Gillette when the weather was terrible. The Pats are just not a great team on the ground and when the air game with Brady, Moss and others is somewhat taken away then we are seeing Superman somewhere around Kryptonite.
Brody Croyle and the Chiefs are a six win team in Vegas for a reason as they are not very good but after a great draft including Glenn Dorsey I can see Herm Edwards' team play spirited and competitive in this spot against what is still definitely the class of the entire NFL.
With a target on their chests the Pats in this weather truly should not be able to just run away with this thing at will. Tom Brady is not completely healthy and without any real practive of late may be a bit rusty and make the Chiefs a little better of a team than they really are.
Jeff Benton
Lions minus the points at Atlanta.
First off, Matt Ryan may prove to be a good NFL quarterback over time for the Falcons, but are you willing to trust him to succeed in his very first start behind a below-average offensive line? I’m not. I mean, he’s probably got more raw talent than Joey Harrington and Chris Redman – Atlanta’s two QBs last year – but at least those two had experience facing NFL defenses, and you saw how that turned out.
Now, I do like the Falcons’ upgrade at RB with Michael Turner joining Jerrious Norwood. But really, how much room is either of those guys going to have to run when opposing defenses put eight or nine in the box and dare Ryan to beat them? Even Detroit is smart enough to employ that tactic!
Speaking of the Lions, yeah, they’ve been among the biggest underachievers in football over the past decade. But at least they showed some signs of life last year, starting out 6-2 before sputtering to a 7-9 finish. And Detroit beat the weak teams on its schedule, including the Raiders, Vikings, Bears (twice), Broncos and Chiefs. And while I try not to put a whole lot of emphasis on the preseason, I think it is pertinent to point out that the Lions were the only team to finish August with a perfect record. And they looked good on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 80-32. Not only were the 32 points allowed the fewest in the league, but no other squad gave up fewer than 41. Take that however you want it, but if the defense played that well, why can’t it dominate against a rookie quarterback leading one of the weakest offenses in the league?
Throw in the fact that the Lions have a ton of weapons on offense, led by veteran QB Kitna, and they’ve cashed in five straight season-openers, and I’ll back the road chalk with confidence.
5♦ DETROIT LIONS
Michael Alexander
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Total: 41
The Detroit Lions take to the road today where historically they have been abismal posting a 9-15 ATS mark the last three seasons. The Mike Martz regime didn't work on offense last season as Jon Kitna took a beating as the Loions offense ranked 30th in sacks allowed. Martz is replaced by offensive line coach, Jim Colleto. Colleto is a clock management type of guy so the pass now run later phylosphy of Martz is now gone. Expect the Lions to run most of the time with Kitna picking his spots on the air as the offensive line gets used to Colleto's zone blocking schemes.
The Atlanta Falcons comes into this year with a huge shortage of talent after a disasterous 4-12 SU season. The offense that was essentially put together to compliment Michael Vicks talents is just about gone. It was an offense that last season finished 29th in scoring. The Falcons are pinning all of their hopes on rookie QB Matt Ryan but without much of a supporting cast and wide receivers who have yet to develop a rapport with their QB don't you can expect more of the same from the offensive unit.
SUPPORTING ANGLES: Playing the under with any team against the total (ATLANTA) in the first two weeks of the season is 156-96 UNDER the last 5 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 games in Week 1.
The Detroit defense is essentially built of ex-Tampa Bay players/advisors so expect the cover-2 scheme to play havoc with rookie QB Ryan. That combination along with Detroit's new ball control offensive phylosiphy will bring this number UNDER the total.
Totals 4 You
Cincinnati @ Baltimore on Sunday, September 7th
Cincinnati (0-0) recently made some tough choices by cutting former Pro Bowlers RT Willie Anderson, RB Rudi Johnson, and CB Deltha O’Neal, adding $8 million in cap room, in a move to reverse the aging of a team that opened last season at 2-6 before finishing out of the playoffs at 7-9. Offense again will be a strength for Coach Marvin Lewis’s (42-38 in 6th season) crew with a strong offensive line (17 sacks allowed in ’07, average 6’5 ½” and 326 pounds) providing the time for QB Carson Palmer to grab chunks via former Oregon State teammates WR Chad Johnson and WR TJ Houshmandzadeh who combined for 205 catches, 2583 yards, and 20 touchdowns in 2007. The addition of 6’6” 250 TE Ben Utecht to 6’4” 256 TE Reggie Kelly should beef up the running game and if starting RB Chris Perry continues his career struggle with remaining healthy, reliable 7th-year RB Kenny Watson (178 for 763 yards and 7 TD in ’07) can step right in. Keep your eye on 6’2” 195 rookie WR Jerome Simpson (2nd round Coastal Carolina) who earned the 3rd receiver sop with a big preseason while WR Antonio Chatman will again handle returns. Cincinnati will certainly score with this squad but if they are to return to the post season, Coordinator Mike Zimmer’s defense must show more up front. 3rd-year 6’3” 325 LDT Donato Peko comes off a superb season (52 T, 1 ½ S) on the inside but RDT John Thornton is aging, LDE Robert Geathers managed just 3 ½ sacks last year, and RDE Antwan Odom hasn’t suited up since the first preseason practice. The Bengal back 7 is capable of a big season. WLB Brandon Johnson, MLB Dhani Jones, and Rashad Jeanty are a good group, backed up by strong depth in 6’2” 241 rookie OLB Keith Rivers (USC) and 6’3” 255 OLB Darryl Blackstock. Safety is a bit of a concern with FS Marvin White moving to the starting lineup and SS Dexter Jackson battling an ankle but look out for these corners. 5’11” 193 3rd-year LCB Johnathan Joseph (58 T, 4 INT) and 5’11” 199 2nd-year RCB Leon Hall (60 T, 5 INT) are primed for huge seasons. With the money on the line, few kickers are better than Shayne Graham (133 of 152 career field goals, 31 of 34 last season) while P Kyle Larson are returns.
Baltimore (0-0) first year Coach John Harbaugh announced Monday that the time is now for 6’6” 230 rookie QB Joe Flacco (1st round Delaware). The shoulder injury to QB Kyle Boller and the illness of QB Troy Smith forced the move although Flacco’s strong preseason starts against the Rams and Falcons (combined 26 of 40 for 224 yards and a TD) might have earned him the shot anyway to improve on last season’s (5-11) pitiful team passing marks of 5.94 yards per attempt and 13 touchdowns. As big of an issue with be the Ravens’ offensive line. 6’9” 330 LT Jared Gaither, 6’3” 315 LG Ben Grubbs, 6’3” 320 C Jason Brown, 6’3” 310 RG Marshal Yanda, and 6’8” 330 RT Adam Terry make up a huge group but averaged 1.8 years of NFL service coming into the 2008 season. Tight end Todd Heap, receivers Mark Clayton (48 for 531 yards in ’07) and Derrick Mason (103 for 1087 and 5 TD), plus backs Willis McGahee (1207 yards and 7 TD) and 5’8” 205 rookie Ray Rice (Rutgers) Baltimore enough talent at the skill positions but their production will be at the mercy of the kids up front. 2nd-year WR Yamon Figures will again handle punt (10.7 per with TD) and kick (24.7 and TD) duties. Coordinator Rex Ryan’s stoppers have carried the load for this franchise for years but age is becoming a serious issue. 12th-year LDE Trevor Pryce, 13th-year LILB Ray Lewis (120 T, 2 S, 2 INT), 10th-year RCB Chris McAlister, and 11th-year LCB Samari Rolle all hold starting spots with the cornerback pair starting to show it with just 2 combined picks in 2007. Nickel and Dime backs 5’11” 196 Frank Walker and 5’11” 180 Fabian Washington will be tested this week and must have big seasons while defensive backfield mates 6’0” 220 SS Dawan Landry (82 T, S) and 5’11” 200 FS Ed Reed (7 INT) are tough as nails up the middle. ROLB Terrell Suggs (80 T, 5 S) and LOLB Jarret Johnson (58 T, 2 S) will be called upon to bring more heat on the pocket than they did last season while 6’0” 315 NT Kelly Gregg and 6’4” 345 RDE are simply unmovable (2.8 yards allowed per rush).
SELECTION: The Ravens showed little sign of offensive life during the preseason with 12.5 points and 224.2 yards per game while offensive line will be a major issue. We give the Week 1 nod to the Cincinnati Bengals –1 ½.
Razor Sharp Sports
The NFL gets underway and the AFC South is wasting no time with getting the divisional action underway. The AFC South looks like it could be the toughest division in football with the Colts, Texans, Jaguars and Titans. Last season only the Texans failed to make the playoffs, but they still finished 8-8. The combined regular season record from the AFC South was 42-22, the best in the NFL. The NFC East was second at 40-24. For the second straight year Jacksonville and Tennessee kickoff their season against each other. Last year they met in the opener in Jacksonville with the Titans winning that contest 13-10. Their other meeting in Tennessee came in November and the Jags came out ahead 28-13.
With a whole new season, you have to expect some different results, but with very similar rosters to last year, I don’t expect much change in these two teams. These teams are built very much alike. Both have strong defenses with a very good front line. John Henderson anchors things up front for Jacksonville, while Albert Haynesworth does the same for the Titans. On offense, both teams have young stars at Running Back. Maurice Jones- Drew (Jax) and LenDale White (Tenn) are both in their 3rd seasons. Last year White ran for 1100 yards and scored 7 TDs while Jones-Drew had 768 yards and 9 scores. Both teams have solid signal callers. Last season, Jaguars QB David Garrard became the full time starter last year and put together a Pro-Bowl season. He threw for over 2500 yards with 18 TDs and only 3 ints. He had a 3rd ranked QB rating of 102.2. For Tennessee, QB Vince Young is double threat through the air and on the ground. Last season he struggled a bit passing. He had just 9 TD passes and 17 ints. He did rush for almost 400 yards and 3 more scores. Turnovers were also his problem when he had the ball. He lost 5 fumbles.
The strength of both of these teams will remain on the defensive side of the ball. Look for a game similar to last season’s opener. As a free winner for this weekend, take the Jacksonville and Tennessee game to go Under the total of 37
Mike Wynn Sports
With hurricane Gustav done and gone it looks like they’ll be playing football at the Superdome Sunday, and the Saints will look to put a very disappointing 2007 campaign behind them. Last year the Saints opened up the season with 4 straight losses and never really ever recovered or lived up to the expectations finishing the season 7-9. Tampa Bay on the other hand was a nice surprise finishing off 2007 winning the NFC South with a 9-7 record and a playoff birth. Big game for both teams here today, as divisional match ups are always doubly important, and both teams will be ready coming out of pre-season. So let’s take a look at both teams here and we’ll start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Last year Tampa bay made a big improvement finishing 9-7 after a dismal, injury filled, 2006 campaign where they finished 4-12, and the biggest reason for the improvement was the addition of Jeff Garcia at QB to the offense. Garcia was just what the doctor ordered for Gruden last season. Garcia now 38 years old can still run an offense, protect the football, and give the offense some toughness. Cadillac Williams will start the 08 season on the Physically unable to perform list, so the load will fall on the shoulders of Earnest Graham. Graham rushed for nearly 900 yards last season and grabbed 49 balls for the Buccaneers. Along with Graham the Buccaneers have the 33 year-old Warrick Dunn back and speed burner Michael Bennett in the back field, which means Graham will be used early and often until Tampa gets Williams back. The receiving corps isn’t going to scare defensive coordinators. Aging Joey Galloway is another year older, Antonio Bryant has potential but is inconsistent, and Michael Clayton disappeared last year after a great rookie season. But what Tampa Bay lacks on offense lay make up on the defensive side of the ball. Tampa Bay was the number 2 ranked defensive team in the entire league last season and they ranked number 1 against the pass allowing just 170.5 passing yards per game. Tampa will be strong up front on defense led by Greg White & Gaines Adams. Last year Tampa’s down linemen recorded 30 of Tampa’s 33 sacks, so they get pressure with the front 4. The secondary, which is strong, should only get better with the addition of rookie Aqib Talib. Once again Gruden will look for his defense to carry them and look for his offense to not to give games away, and with Jeff Garcia at QB, they should do just that.
New Orleans is a team looking to put last years 7-9 season behind them. Saints pegged by many to make a Super Bowl run last year never got out of the gate losing their first 4 games. Brees was simply awful for the Saints in those 4 games last year throwing just 1 touchdown pass and 9 interceptions. Don’t expect more of the same this year as this is a very, very good Saints offense and their going to score a lot of points this season. Drew Brees will have plenty of weapons at his disposal this season starting with a dynamite receiving corps. Colsten & Meachum have the potential to be the best WR tandem in the league and the acquisition of Shockey at TE gives them another tremendous weapon. At running back the Saints are deep as they come. McAllister, Bush, Thomas, and Stecker are all expected to get a fair share of touches this season, and it’s easy to see why the Saints are going to be a nightmare for defensive coordinators this season. But as good as this offense should be this season the Saints defense is a big question mark. Defensively the Saints need big seasons out of their defensive ends Grant & Smith. The linebacking corps needs a healthy Johnathan Vilma to support a below average support group, and the secondary is a bit of a mess. Mike McKenzie their best corner is recovering form a torn ACL, and they have a lot of new faces in that backfield that haven’t played together. New Orleans is going to give up a lot of points this year, but with Sean Payton and that offense, they’re going to score a lot as well.
As far as this match up goes on Sunday, I’m leaning toward an over here. In the last 4 meetings between these two teams they’ve scored 45 or more points and I expect more of the same. No doubt Tampa Bay will try to exploit the secondary problems of the Saints, and I don’t care whom the Saints are playing this season, they will put points on the board. New Orleans has been waiting all off-season to show that last year was a hiccup, and Drew Brees is to good to open up the season with a 1 to 9 touchdown to interception ratio again this season. This could easily be 31-27 kind of game and we’ll take the over as a free play in this one Sunday.
Nevada Sharpshooter
The Dallas Cowboys travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Cleveland just missed the playoffs last season and are looking to take the next step. Offensively the Browns are very good. Leading them is QB Derek Anderson who has developed into one of the more exciting players in the league. His main targets will be WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. Leading the ground game is Jamal Lewis. While many of the Browns have been injured in the preseason, they should all be ready for game 1 of the regular season.
The Cowboys on the other hand are used to making the playoffs but have not been able to advance past the 1st round in several seasons. Like the Browns the Boys are loaded on offense with QB Tony Romo and his favorite targets, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. Carrying the load on the ground is RB Marion Barber. Defensively the Cowboys also are solid, led by LB Demetrius Ware. Also looking to contribute is new addition Pacman Jones.
While the Browns may be a playoff contender the Cowboys are a Superbowl contender. Both teams have strong offenses but Dallas has the advantage on defense and special teams. Take Dallas -5.5 over Cleveland as they roll to a road win by at least a TD.
Dr. Vegas
It’s a game of something to prove. On many levels and of epic proportions.
Never has there been so much buzz about an opening game between two teams that won only 5 games combined the previous season. Yet, the Jets at Dolphins (Sunday, September 7 at 1pm ET) is such a game. All eyes will be on Brett Favre, who kept the sports world fixed upon his short-lived “retirement” and offseason trade to the Jets.
There are those focused on Favre’s age, which is not aided by his graying hair and scruffy white beard. Despite his appearance, he is coming off of a stellar season, one which kept the Packers in the 2007 elite. Sure, there were a few prior years that he looked every bit the aging legend, who was simply mailing it in. But then there was last year’s turnaround. And Favre has a tendency to bask in the spotlight. For the first time in many years, he’s hungry again. He has to prove himself to his new fans, his new teammates, his critics, and himself.
If Favre were the only drama in this game, that would be quite enough. But there’s more.
The Jets had to dump starting QB Chad Pennington to pick up Favre. And it just so happens that the Jets’ travel to Miami to face Pennington and the Dolphins.
So forget that it’s a 4-12 versus a 1-15. Forget records, stats, and trends. This is all about making a statement.
Let’s recap the tangled web of the starting quarterbacks:
* Favre is starting in a Jets uniform.
* Pennington is starting in a Dolphins uniform.
* Pennington is facing his old team.
* Pennington is facing Favre, his replacement
Defensive end Shaun Ellis perhaps described it most accurately. Weird.
Bill Parcells enters the mix as new director of football operations for Miami. He is hoping to make enough changes to bring them near .500 on the season. It’s a tall task, but a win in week 1 would sure help build a little confidence and give Parcells a little breathing room.
With all of the QB drama on the field, don’t be surprised if the player of the game ends up being Dolphins RB Ricky Williams, who raised eyebrows in the preseason.
So in a game that on paper looks like a yawner, it promises to be one of the more interesting games to kick off the season.
Free pick from Dr. Vegas: Take the Jets -3 over Miami
LT Profits
2 Units Hous
2 Units Philly
2 Units San Fran
2 Units Denver
Tom Stryker
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
Play:Buffalo Bills -1
With the health of Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck in question, Buffalo will be prepared to take advantage of the opportunity at hand. Hasselbeck has played in only two series during the pre-season and his back is definitely an issue. It won’t help that Matt has limited targets either. The Seahawks are without their leading receiver Bobby Engram and also minus the services of Ben Oboramnu.
Buffalo’s offense wasn’t the best last year. The Bills averaged only 277.1 yards per game. However, quarterback Trent Edwards and running back Marshawn Lynch have some valuable playing time under their belts and they’ll move the football better under the direction of first-year coordinator Turk Schonert.
There are a few strong trends that favor Buffalo in this game too. First, at home in non-division action, the Bills are a sweet 62-37-2 ATS since the 1986 season. When matched up against teams from the NFC, Buffy has cruised to a spectacular 31-19-2 ATS mark. Of course, the AFC’s 140-103-8 ATS home record against the NFC can’t be overlooked here either!
On foreign soil, Seattle has found the going a bit rough notching a weak 6-13-1 ATS mark in its last 20 games. In addition, the Seahawks have struggled against teams from the AFC posting a soft 6-10-1 ATS mark in their last 16 tries.
If the Bills want to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999, they know they must defend their home turf. That means a victory over Seattle is a must. Take Buffalo!
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on NY Yankees -175
Mussina has Seattle's number. The Yankees are 10-1 in Mussina's last 11 starts vs. the Mariners and 5-1 in Mussina's last 6 road starts vs. the Mariners. The Yankees are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings against the M's overall, 4-0 in Mussina's last 4 road starts, and 13-3 in Mussina's last 16 starts with 4 days of rest. The Mariners are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record and 4-13 in Silva's last 17 starts. Take the Yanks.
Dime Players Club
Detroit at Atlanta
Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Take Detroit Lions -3
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
The Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New Orleans . The Saints are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall and 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 home games. The underdog has won 10 of the last 13 SU in this matchup and that’s what we like to happen again here. Tampa Bay did win the division a season ago and it still boasts the best defense in the NFC South. New Orleans started very slow last season and don’t be surprised if they have the same sluggish start in 2008. We’ll take the points for a small play.
TONY MATHEWS
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Selection: Atlanta Falcons +3
Statistics are easily manipulated to serve either side?s purpose, especially when the interpretation is misunderstood. The current notion of the Atlanta Falcons is a prime example of that kind of misinterpretation. What we have now is a talented team that is hidden by all the mishaps that occurred in 2007. The situations surrounding Michael Vick, Bobby Petrino and a wealth of injuries make the Falcons appear to be a lot worse than they actually are. But with a proper understanding we diverge from the marketplace that has them looking extremely worthless.
Putting the Lions at -3 is a huge assertion. In their last 28 games on the road the Lions are a horrible 4-24 SU and their 2005 win against New Orleans is to be considered neutral. Detroit has not been favored on the road for 3 seasons and there is no significant improvement to be seen this year either. The had abysmal losses on the road last season including 56-21 in Philadelphia, 34-3 in Washington, 42-10 in Minnesota, 51-14 in San Diego and 34-13 in Green Bay. These all add up to severe insecurities when it comes to situations like this. But to give credit where credit is due, the Lions do have some good wide receivers in Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, but those two pretty much sum up the talent for this team.
Atlanta on the other hand had shown vast improvement in the 2007 season. A lot of it had to do with brining in new talent under the same coaching staff. They were given some highly skilled running backs such as Matt Ryan, who considerably increased the effectiveness of the offense while giving Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey more to work with. Smith has exceptional organizational skills that have introduced the lacking discipline that was missing, and his canny defensive strategies strengthen one of the most underestimated Line Backing Corps in the NFL.
In this case, the value is with the underdog Atlanta Falcons!
Take the Atlanta Falcons +3