PRO ANGLE PLAYS
4* BUFFALO
4* CINCINNATI
3*NY JETS
4* Carolina (+) over SAN DIEGO
SD comes into the season as the runaway favorite for the AFC West while CAR, behind a healthy Delhomme, is expected to mount a serious challenge in the NFC South. SD is 6-0 ATS as a HF of 7+ while CAR is 18-9-2 ATS as an AD. CAR susp Steve Smith the 1st 2 games & the WR is struggling w/injs. CAR is returning to a power rushing attack & upgraded the OL with a new face at each spot. They showed just how serious they are in the preseason as CAR posted 107 rush atts (4.8) in the first 3 preseason games. LY before his elbow injury Delhomme avg'd 308ypg (64%) with an 8-1 ratio & CAR scored 27, 21 & 27 pts. From 2004-2006 SD was in the top 3 for rush def & allowed just 16 100 yd games but LY teams spread the defense out & SD allowed 7 100+ yd games. SD allowed 102 yds rushing on STL 1st 16 rush att?s & looked sloppy vs SEA with 162 yds (5.1). SD is also dealing w/injs as C Hardwick (knee) is out & LT McNeil (stinger) didn't practice at all in preseason. Rivers is just 7 months removed from having his ACL replaced & TE Gates is only at 85%. While Tomlinson will get his yards here, CAR has shifted its defensive strength to the back 7 & look for Peppers to announce his return here.
FORECAST: Carolina 20 (+) SAN DIEGO 21
3* Jaguars/Titans: UNDER
The Titans upset the Jags 13-10 as a 7 pt AD by playing the Jags type of smashmouth football (282-75 rush edge) in the 2007 season opener. In the 2nd meeting JAX beat TEN 28-13 as a 4.5 pt AD in their 3rd straight road game & were without Garrard for the 3rd straight game. TEN turned the ball over 3 times & were SOD twice deep in JAX territory. TEN has some major questions concerning their passing game as their WR's couldn't gain separation in the preseason in returning OC Heimerdinger's offense. QB Young only tallied 150 yds (50%) with an 0-1 ratio vs an ATL team whose secondary looks to be worse than LY's #23 ranking. JAX also has issues with its WR unit as big FA signing Jerry Porter has missed virtually all of TC with a torn hamstring, slot WR Northcutt (44 rec 13.7 LY) is the #1 WR & the #2 option is either troubled Matt Jones (24 rec 13.2 LY) or Reggie Williams (38 rec 16.6 LY) who has missed most of TC with a right knee inj. Both teams rely on powerful ground oriented offenses & with neither team having a dropoff in their defenses (JAX #12 TEN #5 LY) this should be a physical, hard fought lower scoring game. TEN is a strong HD (7-1 ATS) with a solid crowd & the Under is the play.
FORECAST: Jaguars/Titans: UNDER THE TOTAL
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Houston (+) over PITTSBURGH - While this is the 1st meeting since PIT beat HOU 27-7 as a 4.5 pt AF in 2005 the Steelers have faced a similar type of offense the L2Y vs DEN. PIT is, however, 0-2 SU & ATS vs a Kubiak-oriented offense. PIT is 8-4 ATS as a non-div HF while HOU is 3-6 ATS as an AD. HOU matches up well with their talented 4-3 DL in its 2nd season together featuring DE Mario Williams (14 sacks LY) vs an OL that allowed Roethlisberger to get sacked 47 times LY. While PIT had the #3 pass def LY HOU only had Schaub & WR Johnson together for 4 full games (3-1 SU & ATS w/24-15 avg score). In those, Schaub passed for 250 ypg (66.4%) with a 7-3 ratio & Johnson had 23 rec (18.2). PIT has a big edge with their #3 run game from LY reinforced by Mendenhall vs a HOU team that still lacks a solid feature back to balance out the offense. Look for this to be a higher scoring affair as both teams are pass oriented with quality receiving targets. We are aware that HOU had 6 road losses by a 16 ppg margin LY but that was without their QB/WR tandem, lack of depth at RB & a beaten up secondary. HOU is our 1st NFL Ugly Dog Play for 2008 which is currently at 17-8 (68%).
FORECAST: Houston 24 (+) PITTSBURGH 26
Brian Gabrielle
Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. The Saturday night race at Richmond will become a Sunday afternoon race (smack dab against the NFL) because Tropical Storm Hannah, and qualifying was washed out, so let's not take Busch's pole too seriously. No, what I take seriously is the fact that in seven career starts at this track, the younger Busch has a ludicrous six top-five finishes, including a second place earlier this season in which he spun out Dale Earnhardt Jr. and allowed Clint Bowyer to get the win. Unlike a few of the other likely Richmond suspects, Busch has nothing to lose by going for a win this weekend; the points reset on Monday.
Take Jeff Gordon (+1500), 1/6th unit. I know Gordon has struggled a bit lately, but man, these are some harsh odds, and I'm buying in while his stock is low. Gordon finished fourth in both Car of Tomorrow Richmond races last year, and finished ninth here back in May. He turned in the fastest lap during the only practice that wasn't rained out this weekend, which means he should at least have a pretty fast car.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+500), 1/6th unit. These are scary odds, because the last time the Sprint Cup circuit ran at this track, the No. 48 had a terrible time even staying on the lead lap before eventually getting wrecked and finishing 30th. But he swept the two Car of Tomorrow races at Richmond in 2007, and he's on such a role at all track types right now. I'm buying into some late-season Hendrick magic for another team who doesn't need to play it conservatively to make the Chase.
Pro Line Sports
NY Jets Jets vs Miami Dolphins
The New York Jets (4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS in 2007) are all of a sudden loaded with hope. On Sunday they will start the season with a game that brings quite a storyline with it, as they travel to south Florida to play the Miami Dolphins (1-5 SU, 5-9-2 ATS), who currently employ nor only the Jets' former quarterback, but their former coach as well, in an NFL game that is set to kickoff at 1 PM ET at Dolphins Stadium (natural turf) in Miami.
Jets fans started the pre-season with the idea that they were going to wind up with the lesser of two evils at the quarterback spot, with Chad Pennington battling it out against Kellen Clemens. But then the big trade was made to land Brett Favre, and Erik Mangini, who has little hope of competing on even terms with New England in the unbalanced AFC East, has to be feeling a lot better about his chances of being in the running for a wild card slot.
Favre has some receivers to work with, but hasn't had much time to do it in. And Thomas Jones, the running back brought over from Chicago last year, ran for just 3.6 yards a pop. On the plus side, there is an offensive line that has a chance to be a very serviceable unit. The Jets have an offense that at least can compete in the NFL.
Pennington has also inspired some confidence among his teammates, who thought they might be looking at rookie Chad Henne starting the season because Josh McCown (since dealt) and John Beck were so subpar in training camp. The Dolphins may be able to run the ball with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but Ted Ginn still has some developing to do at wideout, and there is little to complement him. Defense is a problem with this crew, which gave up more yards on the ground than anybody last year. And Bill Parcells dealing Jason Taylor away was an obvious sign that they are willing to take lumps now to benefit later.
Most of the time we would scoff at the idea of laying a field goal on the road in a season opener with a team that won just four games the year before. But that would be to ignore the Jets' recent history against Miami, which has been nothing but profitable. And then again, the Dolphins have not eaten home cooking in a while, dropping eight of their last nine straight-up at its eponymous stadium. With Favre now at the controls, New York should be at least a lot less predictable. And no one really knows what to expect from this Miami team that is still very short on quality personnel.
We don't believe in Parcells' reclamation project until his administration demonstrates otherwise. So we're going to ride with the trends and lay the points with the Jets.
Take the Jets -3
Mike Peters
Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts
The Chicago Bears, (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-7 O/U) have gone backwards in a big way ever since reaching the Super Bowl two years ago, with one of the league’s most voracious and feared defenses and are now hoping just to get above .500 while heading into their 2008 regular season football betting opener against the Indianapolis Colts, (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U).
Unfortunately, Chicago head coach Lovie Smith has failed to address his totally unacceptable quarterback situation at all and the BetUS NFL online sports wagering fraternity may find the Bears suffering from many of the same offensive problems in 2008 that plagued the team in 2007.
The Bears ranked a pitiful 27th in overall offense last season, averaging just 293.2 total yards per game, including an atrocious 83.3 rushing yards per game, (30th) after trading away former workhorse back Thomas Jones in favor of high first round pick Cedric Benson, a player the team recently let go after several off-field encounters with the law.
Chicago also watched its once formidable defense, fall all the way to 28th overall, allowing a whopping 354.7 total yards per game, including 231.4 through the air and another 123.3 yards per game on the ground, (24th).
The Bears also lost nine veteran free agents, many say, due to the franchise’s tight-fisted monetary ways. Chicago did add veteran running back Kevin Jones and wide receiver Marty Booker to go along with 2008 Draft picks, Chris Williams, (tackle), Matt Forte, (RB) and Earl Bennett, (WR) to help improve the team’s offense.
While the Bears will choose between either incumbent mediocre starter Rex Grossman or younger signal caller Kyle Orton, the Colts have football’s best quarterback in veteran Peyton Manning.
After beating the Bears 29-17 in last season’s season opener at home, the Colts figure to do much of the same things they did last season as Manning leads the league’s fifth-best overall offense, (358.6 ypg) and sixth-best passing offense, (252.0 ypg).
Indianapolis also ranked third in overall defense, limiting opponents to just 279.7 total yards per game, including a spectacular 172.8 passing yards per game to rank second in that category.
The Colts struggled with the run on both sides of the ball last season, ranking just 18t in rushing, averaging 106.6 yards per game and allowing 106.9 rushing yards per game to rank 15th.
The Colts drafted center Mike Pollack with the No. 28 pick in the first round of the draft, before adding inside linebacker Philip Wheeler and another target for Manning in tight end Jacob Tamme with their next two picks.
Indianapolis also added 10 veteran free agents, led by former running back Dominic Rhodes who returns after a one-year stay with the Oakland Raiders.
The Colts won by double digits last season and will do the same in this contest against their suddenly overmatched opponents. Only one question begs asking surrounding this matchup – is Lovie Smith the only person in the world who can’t see that Rex Grossman is totally overmatched as a starting NFL quarterback?
Take the Colts -9
George Smeader
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
When you look at what the Steelers potentially have going for them on offense, it is quite a lot. That's because they can add another explosive component to its running game, with Rashard Mendenhall, a first-round draft pick out of Illinois, joining Willie Parker back there. Pittsburgh is trying to step up the pace with a lot more no-huddle action, and though we're not quite sure what kind of effect that is going to have on opponents, we can tell you that with a fresh back in there all the time, they have a better shot at wearing down defenses. Smashmouth is where coach Mike Tomlin would eventually like to go.
The play of Ben Roethlisberger will obviously be a key for the Steelers. Roethlisberger threw 32 TD passes with only 11 interceptions in 2007, And he did so with horrible protection from his offensive line, who let him get sacked 47 times on the season. If there is a potential opening for the Texans, it comes if their pass rushers like Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams can take things to the next level. But if Pittsburgh in even passable in the way it protects Big Ben, he could very easily have his way with a secondary that is middling even when Donta Robinson is healthy and in the lineup (and he is out till mid-season, at earliest).
Houston head coach Gary Kubiak would like to emulate what the Denver Broncos (where he was an assistant for many years) have done in their running game, and toward that end he has installed the former architect of that running game, Alex Gibbs, as the assistant head coach. Unlike the Steelers, who have capable runners in Parker, Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore, the Texans' quest for a go-to back is an ongoing struggle. Rookie Steve Slaton could be the guy who gets the most carries, ultimately. But this ground attack, including the offensive line, is a work in progress.
So is Matt Schaub, who threw nine touchdowns and had nine interceptions as the starter before going down to injury and giving way to backup Sage Rosenfels. One can't help but get the feeling that with Rosenfels in the saddle, this offense is more lively.
Houston got to the .500 mark last season (8-8 SU), although the next step will be tougher, since they have three playoff clubs in their division. This game doesn't make it any easier. Pittsburgh allowed only 11.6 points per game at home last season, and the Texans have not developed a reputation as great travelers, losing six of their last seven road games, both straight-up and against the number. This number is actually pretty reasonable. We'll lay it with the Steelers.
Take Pittsburgh
Info Plays
3* on St. Louis Rams +9.5
The St. Louis Rams will capitalize on a pair of injuries to the Eagles’ two starting receivers. Both Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are out with injuries, limiting what the Eagles offense will be able to do. The Rams can now zone in on Bryan Westbrook to take away their most effective weapon. You’ll see a heavy dose of Steven Jackson of the Rams tonight as he’s healthy and ready to go this season. Marc Bulger has a plethora of weapons on the outside in St. Louis. This offense will be as good as it has been since the Super Bowl days of Kurt Warner this season. We feel the Rams’ defense will hold the Eagles in check, especially with their two starting WR’s out Sunday. This game won’t be as big of a blowout as the line indicates. Bet the Rams on the road.
Kingmaker
1.5 Units Jets
1 Unit Bills
Brian Marshall
Carolina Panthers vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: Carolina/San Diego Under 41
Game Analyses: Panthers’ coach John Fox has a consistent style that works well as long as he has the right mix of players. And despite some disappointing games Carolina is once again regaining an optimal fit. The offensive line has upgraded to a higher level, developing a more solid ground game with running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart . Fox will be relying on the ground game and the attack since the wide receiver corps is at a weaker level than usual and avoiding a battle would be a smart move. The Panthers are 7-3 on the road as underdog which is a trend that is likely to continue this week.
WR Steve Smith is going to be the real playmaker for the Panthers since Jake Delhomme still needs to get acclimated to Mushin Muhammad and D. J. Hackett. Furthermore, Hackett’s presence in this game is still questionable. Even if he does play, he won’t be in full health physically and there is no way he’ll be up speed with the playbook. The Chargers defense is going to be to difficult for anyone on this depth chart to breach.
San Diego has an incredibly solid defense that will be effective early on in the season. As the year rolls on, their strength may deteriorate if Shawne Merriman fails to stay healthy, but that is not a concern at all for this week. Last year on this field, San Diego managed to hold 7 out of their 9 opponents to 14 points or less. As such, the Panthers can forget about any big plays from the passing game. Big Plays from the Chargers is also going to be limited. While the offense can control the ball and take advantage of the clock with a big lead, last years performance from Philip Rivers showed not one completion of more than 50 yards out of a total of 460 pass attempts.
It’s safe to say that we should see a low-scoring game today!
Take the Carolina Panthers/San Diego Chargers Under 41!
Two Minute Warning
Best Bets
Cleveland
Houston
Baltimore
Kansas City
New Orleans
Miami
Scott Delaney
I was all about the Saints in this one. Then Hurricane Gustav forced the team out of New Orleans and into Indianapolis’ new Lucas Oil Stadium. Yes, the Saints announced this game will be played at the Superdome, and everything appears to be fine. But that doesn’t take away from the fact this team has had a lot more on its mind than expected. New Orleans will never escape Katrina, and now this?
The Bucs have won and covered five of their last six meetings, while they’ve covered their last four at the Superdome and last five as the series visitor – remember the Saints played out of town two years ago. New Orleans was a mere 2-6 versus the line at the Superdome last season and 5-12 against the spread as a host team dating back two seasons. Tampa still owns the better defense, and while Drew Brees appeared in excellent form this preseason, Deuce McAllister didn’t. New Orleans struggles offensively, mentally and plays keep up in this one. Take the road Buccaneers.
2 Dime BUCCANEERS
Andre Gomes
CIN -1.5 vs BAL
I normally don't like to go against an home dog in a season opener, which the case of the Ravens on this game, however in normal conditions a SU win of the Bengals should be enough for a cover too, as they are currently listed as a -1,5 road favorite. I think the Bengals will be capable of playing some interesting games this season, however the same can't be said about the Ravens, as their current situation is really problematic.
The Ravens' quarterback situation is terrible right now, as rookie Joe Flacco will be the starter today and the truth is that he didn't win the starting spot due to his merits, but because the other two contenders for this position won't be able to play today. And if in normal circumsntances a rookie should struggle on his first season (Manning in the Colts was an example of that), the truth is that we are talking about a rookie, who was supposed to stay at the bench for the whole season. Joe Flacco played in the four preseason games, in order to be better prepared for today, but the truth is that the scouts of the Bengals were also at these games, so they had the opportunity to take a look at the offensive players between Flacco and his teammates.
Besides this, the spot of the Ravens isn't good at all. I actually believe Flacco with a good offense could actually have a good performance today, but the Ravens have one of the worst receiving corps in the league and the retirement of tackle Jonathan Ogden made things even worse for them. Adam Terry, Ben Grubbs, Jason Brown, Marshall Yanda and Jarod Gaither all have three years of NFL experience or less, which makes this team lack experience and be an easy target at the beginning of the season, as they don't have routines and good coordination with the QB. Things don't get better for Baltimore in their defensive. Nose tackle Kelly Gregg and free safety Ed Reed, the two most important players on this defense are both hurt and questionable for today. We are talking about the strongest part of the Ravens and without these two players, the defense of the Ravens gets clearly worse.
On the other side, the Bengals finished the season with a 7-9 record, but they weren't that bad. After all they ended the season with a positive turnover ratio of +1 (14th). QB Carson Palmer ? a solid player and we have a clear mismatch in the QB position in this match. Also the Bengals have potential to be dangerous on offense, with Chris Perry and especially Ocho Cinco and Houshmandzadeh, who are both 1000 yard receivers, who will make the task of the Ravens defense really tough. Just remember the Bengals were 7th last season in passing, with 250.8 yards per game. Obviously there have been some off-field concerns about Ocho Cinco, however when the players hit the field, they will quickly forget that. Cincinnati's defense was just plain bad last season. They were last in sacks, 27th in totals yards allowed and 24th in points allowed, which forced the offense to try and outscore teams every week, but for this game things may not be terrible for the Bengals in this department, as the offense of the Ravens looks terrible right now.
The Bengals have been dominating the head to head, having swept the series last season, covering the spread in both games. The Bengals are actually 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Ravens. The team just won 2 of their 8 road games last season, but one of those wins was at Baltimore by 1-7. I'll take the Bengals in this game, as they are the better team and with this being played so early in the season, the edge is even higher for the Bengals. Take Cincinnati in here.
THE BOOKIE PAYS YOU
======================================================
Real Quick... I know it's opening day of the NFL, but the best bet is in
the MLB! Cliff Lee + Kansas City Royals + VERY favorable moneyline =
EASY WIN FOR the INDIANS! Get on the Indians early before the moneyline
becomes inflated too much! This is a NO BRAINER!!! Thanks.
=======================================================
8)
Lenny Del Genio
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
Play Over Dallas/Cleveland at 4:15 ET. This will be the 10th consecutive season the Cleveland Browns have opened the year at home. Previously, they are just 1-8 SU, so as attractive as the points look, we can’t take them. What we will do though is go Over. Wade Phillips is 11-2 Over on the road in non-conference games. Dallas was 2nd in the NFL last year scoring over 28 PPG. Cleveland averaged over 26 PPG at home. The Browns also began the year by going Over in 9 of their first 10 in 2007.
Play on: Over
Vegas Experts
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Two years ago, the Colts beat the Bears by 12 in the Super Bowl. While it can be argued that Indy is not as good as that team, it is certainly true that Chicago is nowhere near as good. The Colts have covered 8 of 9 against NFC teams and the Bears are a team with a deteriorating defense, no skill players at RB and WR and Kyle Orton is their starting QB.
Play on: Indianaplis
Tony Karpinski
Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Colts -10
This is a rematch of '06 Super Bowl, which wasn't as close as the 29-17 final. Bears now going with Orton over Grossman. It was just a matter of time. But the departure of Benson, Berriman, & Muhammad sure doesn't make matters easier for the Chicago "O", despite moving Hester to WR.
The Colts, believe it or not, finished as the 15th rated "O" team a year ago, so improvement is a must, with the return of Harrison of utmost importance. The Bears are just 5-10 vs the AFC, while Indy will roll big time with Manning in the drivers seat. COLTS by 20