Steve Merril
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Play: Under 43
The Patriots were an explosive offensive team last year and they dominated most of their opponents in the regular season, but they still did not win the Super Bowl and I expect New England to put less emphasis on the regular season games this year. The Patriots’ offense is likely to be a bit rusty today as quarterback Tom Brady is playing for the first time after missing the entire preseason. Brady is battling a leg injury and his effectiveness today is a major question mark. He normally does not play in the final exhibition game, but last year he had 41 pass attempts in the second and third preseason games, so his lack of game action will affect him today. The biggest key to a low-scoring game is the fact Kansas City has a terrible offense that averaged just 14.1 points per game and 4.7 yards per play last year (versus opponents that allowed 21.9 ppg and 5.5 yppl). Quarterback Brodie Croyle struggled in the preseason with a 5.7 ypp average and a weak 65.6 QB rating, so it does not appear the Chiefs will be any better on offense this year.
Matt Fargo
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Just a week ago, the Dodgers getting left for dead as they were in the midst of an eight-game losing streak and trailed the Diamondbacks by four and a half games in the National League West. Fast forward to today and seven consecutive wins later, Los Angeles is back in first place by a half-game. The offense has been blistering while the pitching has been solid as the Dodgers have outscored the opposition by a combined score of 47-15.
While the Dodgers are hot once again, the Diamondbacks have been faltering again. Arizona has lost the first two games of this series and it is 3-9 over its last 12 games. It has lost six straight games on the road and is 31-39 away from home o the season. The problem remains a feeble offense as the Diamondbacks are hitting only .231 on the road which is easily the worst in baseball. During this six-game skid on the road, they have scored a grand total of 10 runs.
The Dodgers hand the ball off to Clayton Kershaw who had a couple rough outings before rebounding last time out. He allowed three runs in seven innings against the Padres which was his fifth straight quality outing at home. He has a 2.03 ERA over that span while six of his last eight starts have been quality performances as well. One of those games included six shutout innings against Arizona where he allowed just four hits and a walk. The Dodgers are 4-1 in his last five home starts.
Max Scherzer is one of the young guns that the Diamondbacks are counting on in the future and he is back in the bigs after a short stint with the team back in May. He is making a spot start for Randy Johnson so there has not been much preparation time. He had a rough Major League debut but his final two outings were much better as he allowed just three runs, none of which were earned. The problem is that Arizona is 0-3 in his starts, averaging only 2.7 rpg of support and we can expect more of the same today. Play Los Angeles Dodgers 1.5 Units
Charlie Scott
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play:Bengals -1
This is an ugly matchup , but when we win, the money all spends the same. More of a play against Baltimore than anything else. For the Ravens it's Harbaugh's first game as a head coach, QB Joe Flacco makes his first start, which will be a huge jump from playing at Delaware and RB Ray Rice will see a lot of action. The Veteran Bengals have won 7 out of the last 8 in this matchup and with the low pointspread this trend should hopefully continue.
Jack Reynolds
Carolina Panthers @ San Diego Chargers
The San Diego Chargers open the 2008 season at Home against the Carolina Panthers. Both team played disappointing Football last season. The Panthers suffered to many injury's to show up during the post season. The Chargers fell one game from making the playoffs'.The Panthers have won their road opener in 5 of the last 7 years.Take the generous points and Carolina over San Diego in this shoot out affair.
Michael Cannon
Carolina +9' at SAN DIEGO
Take the points with the Panthers this afternoon when they travel west to face the Chargers.
San Diego is coming off the AFC Championship loss to the Patriots, but they are also a beat-up team right now.
Philip Rivers is seven months removed from knee surgery, Antonio Gates is about 85 percent right now and we all know about Shawn Merriman’s situation with his knee.
Plus LaDainian Tomlinson is coming off a knee injury that kept him out of the championship game for all but a few plays.
And the Chargers are supposed to win by double-digits?
I’ll take my chances with the Panthers, who have a healthy Jake Delhomme back under center and a defense that can play as physical as the Chargers want to.
In fact, it’s the front four of Carolina that I see controlling the line of scrimmage and making things miserable for Tomlinson and Rivers.
I know that Steve Smith is suspended and sitting this one out, but I believe that’s going to force the Panthers to rally in his absence and turn in a gutsy effort.
Take the points with the Panthers as they stay within the number.
3♦ CAROLINA
Drew Gordon
Dallas at CLEVELAND +6
We kick off the first NFL Sunday of the season with a rock-solid home dog today in Cleveland...
Look guys, first and foremost, you know Vegas is going to make you pay a premium for the Cowboys. The media darlings are stacked, no doubt, but that still doesn't justify making an up-and-coming Browns team considerable dogs in their home opener!
Remember guys, we're talking about a Cleveland squad that was an impressive 7-1 ATS at home last season! Coming off of coach Crennel's best season, look for the Browns to continue to make strides with their high-powered offense and a rebuilt defense anchored by DT Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams. Running the ball against the Browns just got a whole lot harder thanks to those two BIG additions!
Also, for anyone keeping track, the Cowboys have not fared well against the AFC on the road, going 5-13 SU in their last 18 in that spot. Not only that, but Dallas was plenty beatable ATS towards the end of last season, finshing 0-5 ATS over their last 5 games (2-3 SU)... Not exactly the numbers you'd expect from such a "stacked" team!
Bottom line, the Cowboys are a damn good team, but understimate the Browns in this spot at your own risk. They can score with the best of them, and with their new additions on defense, (plus the fact they're playing in their home opener), look for Anderson and company to keep this game well within the number Sunday afternoon!
Take Cleveland plus the points over Dallas in this NFL match up.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Gina
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Texans will have a big assignment against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are tough at home and have covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games at Heinz Field and lost just one game in Pittsburgh last season to the Jaguars.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6½
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Colts' QB Peyton Manning missed the entire preseason and it’s not known if he will play in the opening season game against the Bears. Besides, how will he perform. In addition, Indianapolis defense is hurting with injuries. Even with all these issues, the Colts have more talent then Chicago. Go with the Colts to open up the-new Lucas Oil Stadium with a victory.
Indianapolis Colts -9½
Mr A
Houston at Pittsburgh
The Steelers powerful defense will give the Texans a bad day in Pittsburgh. The Steelers had the #1 defense in the NFL last season and will continue to be a force with almost all of their starters returning this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6½
St. Louis at Philadelphia
The Rams were awful last year and an improvement is expected, but not enough to stop the Eagles in Philadelphia. Look for the Eagles offense to hammer St. Louis on the ground.
Philadelphia Eagles -7½
Balfe
Jets/Dolphins Over 36
Who would have thought two months ago that Brett Favre would be playing for the Jets and Chad Pennington then Jets QB would be facing his old team opening week. Pennington has a huge advantage as he knows each and every player on the Jets Defense and can point out their strengths and weaknesses. You know that Brett Favre will do his part in his Jets debut. Both teams have size advantages on offense and should put up enough points to send this OVER the total.
Rams +8.5 over Eagles
This game has classic upset all over it The Rams are getting no respect as Joe Public is betting heavily on the eagles at home. Philadelphia will be without both of their starting WR's today if indeed Brown's doubtful status holds up. The Eagles defense has always allowed teams to run on them and their secondary is not what it used to be in the past even with Samuels at corner. The Rams can run the ball and have a veteran QB in Marc Bulger who can throw to his veteran receivers. McNabb is always a hit or miss performer and it is so typical of Philadelphia sports to bomb out in games like this. This is a big number for the Eagles to be laying in week one. Look for the Rams to cover with a possible upset.
Cardinals/49ers Over 42
The 49ers will be the most improved team in the NFL this year. Last year San Francisco was ready to turn the corner, but injuries slowed them up. Arizona will go with the veteran QB Kurt Warner who has a ton of weapons behind him. J.T. O'Sullivan will be a household name by Thanksgiving. Both teams match up very well against each other and I am expecting a ton of points on the board when this one is done. Take the Over.
Major League Baseball
Rays -135 over Bluejays
Garza/Purcey
Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
25 DIME PLAY
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Marc Lawrence
*4 Buffalo
*3 Miami
*3 Tennessee
ETHAN LAW
Jacksonville at Tennessee
The 2008 season opens much the same as 2007 did for the Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS) and Tennessee Titans (10-7 SU & 8-8-1 ATS). Last year the Titans opened the season by physically pushing the Jags around their own field as the Titans rushed for 282 yards, handing the Jaguars vaunted defense a very humbling 13-10 defeat. Chris Brown led the Titans with a career high 175 yards that day. Someone else will need to do the main damage this time around, as Brown is out for the season with an injury. LenDale White will be the lead man in this year?s script, though rookie RB Chris Johnson likely will play a huge part as well. The first round pick of Johnson is no longer being second guessed now, what with Brown being hurt, and also seeing the rookie?s exciting potential revealed in the preseason. He may be the fastest RB in the league, and provides the Titans with a breakaway threat they sorely lacked. New offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will undoubtedly try to limit mistakes and stick to a conservative game plan on the ground. He would love to air it out more often, but the slow development of starting QB Vince Young limits his options, not to mention the lack of any real threat at wide receiver.
The Jacksonville offense is also limited by their ineptitude at the WR position. Quarterback David Garrard had a breakout season last year, but his play in preseason would indicate he may take a step back this year. The fact that he finished 2007 as the 3rd rated QB in the NFL, may have been one of the biggest surprises of the year. If he were to regress this year, it would not shock too many experts. His breakout season made him a rich man as he cashed in with a team record 6 year $60 million contract extension. Along with the big contract comes pressure to perform, something which Garrard has never had to deal with, since his resounding success was almost unexpected. The biggest story out of Jacksonville?s training camp came just this past week when backup offensive tackle Richard Collier was shot in his apartment. The news of their teammate fighting for his life has been more than just a little distracting. Others may see this tragedy as motivation, let?s go out and ?win one for the gipper? type of stuff. In truth, it could not possibly have come at a worse time. The last thing a team wants as it prepares for a new season is a monumental distraction. The off field problems continue to mount, team leader Fred Taylor?s recent arrest being the tip of the iceberg, of a turbulent off season for Jacksonville.
The Titans conservative smash mouth style may find success once again Sunday, since the Jags will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator and a retooled defensive line. Gone is pro bowl DT Marcus Stroud, and 1st round draft pick Derrick Harvey was just recently signed. The Jaguars had intended for the rookie to contribute immediately, that thought process is long gone now, since he missed all of camp and will be so far behind he may not be productive for weeks. The Titans gained 458 yards rushing combined in the 2 meetings last year. If the Titans even approach that type of success, it would be hard for Jacksonville to overcome.
The line posted on this game is what drew my attention immediately. Last year when these 2 teams met in Tennessee the home-standing Titans were 4 point favorites, this year they are 3 point dogs! That in itself is enough reason for me to like the Titans, we have a very real 7 point increase in line value from the last meeting between these 2 teams! In reality, Tennessee should be about a 1 point favorite here today, so no matter how you look at it, there is tremendous line value. Once again the technical trends suggest we are also on the right side by taking the Titans. The dog is 14-7 ATS in the series, including 7-2 the last 9 meetings. The Jaguars do not fare well when installed as road favorites against their division, just 1-7 ATS the last 8. They also burn money when facing a division opponent with revenge losing 4 of the last 5 ATS in that situation. The Titans on the other hand thrive when made underdogs at home in division games, 5-1 ATS the last 6 times in that role. They are also 4-1 ATS when attempting revenge against a division foe. Vince Young has a 10-2 ATS mark in his career starts facing division opponents, a trend which also attests to Fischer?s coaching style against familiar opponents. With the dark cloud hanging over the Jaguar team, this game may be the furthest thing from their minds this week. Tennessee wins this one outright.
Verdict: Jacksonville 17 Tennessee 24
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON TENNESSEE +3
BIG AL
AFC East Game of the Year.
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins plus the points over the Jets. Both teams will be fielding new signal-callers in this opening game. Brett Favre, of course, will be behind center for the Flyboys, while the Dolphins will be led by ex-Jet QB Chad Pennington. Last year, Miami suffered thru one of the worst seasons in NFL history, as it recorded just one victory against 15 defeats. And that's the key to our wager. Over the past 25 years, there have been eight teams that have failed to win two games. All eight of those teams covered the spread in Week 1 the following season, with six of the eight winning outright as underdogs. Let's take a look at the last five times this system popped. In 1991, the Patriots upset the Colts 16-7 as 9-point dogs after going 1-15 the year before. Then, in 1992, the Colts upset the Ravens 14-3 as 5-point dogs, after going 1-15 the previous season. In 1997, the Jets upset the Seahawks 41-3 as 6-point dogs, after a 1-15 record in 1996. Then, in 2001, the Chargers were actually favored by 2.5 in their opening game vs. Washington after going 1-15 in 2000, and the Chargers won 30-3. The last time this system was active was six years ago, and Carolina upset Baltimore 10-7 as 2-point dogs. What's interesting to note, other than that this system is a perfect 8-0 since 1983, is that the last five times our team has held its opponent to seven points or less! The average final score for those five games was 22-4, with the average pointspread being +4 points. Look for another upset on Sunday. AFC East Game of the Year on the Dolphins.
Jeffersonsports
MLB Early Release For Sun
Yankees-165
Milwaukee-154
Ben Burns
Early Blowout - Tenn
Main Event - Chicago
Shocker of the Year - Houston
Jeff Bonds
Triple-Dime Bet
BUF -1.0 vs SEA
Very tough spot to start the season for the Seattle Seahawks, as they have two divisional home games following this jaunt to the Eastern Time Zone.
The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in their last three games traveling across the country to start the season - failing to cover the spread by more than 11 points.
Buffalo matched up quite well against teams when hosting, as they only failed to cover against the Super Bowl Champion and runner-ups.
Expect the Bills to pounce on this opportunity, as they've covered their last three games when hosting teams that have traveled at least two time zones.