Today's premium plays are highlighted in bold print
Here are some Premium Plays
Blazer 4* Jax
Doc 3* KC
Goldsheet 1.5* Tampa, 1* New Orleans, Miami, Pittsburgh
Probability 4* Teaser NY Giants/Tampa Bay, 3* Indy 3* San Diego
Charlie's Sports
miami @ arizona under 39 (500*)
jacksonville-4' (30*)
cincinnati-1 (20*)
detroit+3 (20*)
tampa bay-7 (10*)
carolina-3 (10*) free play
ADVANTAGE SPORTS
Detroit Lions +3
Pittsburgh Steelers -6
After a division MNF game at home against a physical foe, the Packers now travel off a short week with a few bruises and face a team that looked as bad as any during week one. The correction in the line has GB favored on the road with a new quarterback making his 2nd start and first away from home. The Lions are going to be improved this year, last week's results notwithstanding and I am not certain that Green Bay deserves to be a road favorite here. Green Bay had the good fortune to face a team with a quarterback that was limited in his abilities and against a poor Viking pass defense. The Lions will bring more offensive balance and a Cover Two defensive scheme that will show improvement from last week's disaster in stopping the run. They were taken out of their game plan of running the ball when they got down 21-0 last week. The Lions are one of the strongest home/road dichotomy teams in the league, averaging nearly 27 points at home and only 21 away. Last week's results for both teams give us value with the home dog.
Lions 27, Packers 21.
I generally dislike laying points on the road, but the Browns are not the team that last year's results make them appear. First off, they only played one team with a winning record in 2007 and snuck up on some people with a new offensive scheme. They have been hit hard by injury already and face a team that they have had little success against. The Steelers are more physical and can run the ball, which the Browns struggle to do. Their offense looks out of synch and the defensive line has not shown that the addition of Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams has mattered much. Last year's results have given the Browns some national TV games, but this will be the only year that happens as they will revert to the under achieving team that they have been. The defense is their achilles heel and the O can not carry them. The Steelers defense is more physical and can control the line of scrimmage against a makeshift offensive line. In the second half, the differences become apparent.
Steelers 31, Browns 17
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Dave Malinksy
4* SD
4* TB
6* NE
4* Sea/SF Under
3* 3 wayTeasers Min+NE , NE+TB, TB+Min
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EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
WILLIE "D"
Elite play JACKSONVILLE -4
Blue Chip play SEATTLE -6.5
Insider play DENVER -1
"LEGS" DIAMOND
Bookies Night Mare Play St Louis+9
Bookie Ball Buster Play Washington pk
Bookie Ball Buster Play Cleveland+6
RANDY MITCHEL
Platinum play TAMPA BAY -7
Gold key play WASHINGTON PK
Gold Key play OAKLAND/KANSAS CITY OVER
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Bob Balfe
Wash +1
Buff/Jax un 37.5
Carolina -3
SD +1
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Oscarxena Sports
I again split my two premium plays yesterday as Vanderbilt came through in the second half but thanks to Michigan dropping the ball all over the field the Michigan/Notre Dame game went way over the posted total. I still had an 8-4-1 day in the college football for a very profitable day but here are two selections off of my ten play NFL card today:
211 Miami/Arizona Over 39 -1.05 (2 Unit Play)
200 Detroit +4 -1.05 (3 Unit Play)
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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Double-Dime Bet
TAM / 207 ATL Under 37.5
Bucs UNDER Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay saw their Week One games go over the total but a lot of that had to do with their opponents! Atlanta played an overmatched Detroit team and simply ran all over them. Tampa Bay faced a Saints team that likes to play at a high tempo on offense and then just worry about defense later. In other words, the games were helped to go over moreso by their opponents than by these teams themselves. Now that the Falcons and Buccaneers are matched up this week we feel this one spells under. Atlanta will not be able to run the ball easily this week against this division rival and that means they'll have to turn to the air. With a rookie QB and the fact they were able to get by without doing much through the air last week, this could really stifle the Falcons offense. Additionally, Atlanta was at home last week and now they must go on the road where the challenges will be much bigger for an offense led by such an inexperienced quarterback. No matter how many men the Buccaneers stack in the box the Falcons are still going to turn to the run often and, of course, rushing plays are an ?under players? best friend and will help keep the clock moving in this one. As for Tampa Bay?s offense they did throw a lot last week but part of that was having to keep with the Joneses as they were playing a pass-happy Saints team and they faced them in their building where they had to adjust to their tempo. Now, at home and against a weaker division rival, look for the Buccaneers game plan here to be to grind out a win. Last season the Buccaneers held the Falcons to a combined total of just ten points in their two games. Overall, Tampa Bay was very solid at home last season as they held opponents to an average of just 14 points per game! Tampa Bay will want to keep the Falcons offense off the field so they can prevent Atlanta from developing the kind of rhythm that they did versus Detroit last week. This means that the Buccaneers will focus on their own ground game in this one and again, that means we see a lot of clock get chewed up! The Bucs home games had stayed under in 6 of their last 8 before their last two last season went over the total. Couple this with the fact that they allowed 24 points on the road last week and took the loss, and you can see why we're expecting a very strong defensive effort from the Bucs here in a game where Coach Gruden's troops will emphasize ball control and dominating time of possession! It's an UNDER!
Sixth Sense Sports
KANSAS CITY –3.5 Oakland 36
KC came close to upsetting NE last week. They averaged just 4.6yppl while NE averaged 5.7yppl. Matt Cassel replaced Tom Brady and looked fine. Not sure yet if that is a product of the very solid talent NE has or KC isn’t very good, especially after losing Jared Allen to the Vikings. Both quarterbacks that replaced their starters (Cassel and Huard) threw for very good numbers but most of that yardage was done with one long pass play each. Oakland, meanwhile, looked terrible at home against Denver, allowing 7.5yppl, including 12.0yps. Oakland moved the ball some on their own, averaging 5.4yppl, including 4.8ypr, but the defense gave up way too much yardage. Oakland has played tough here in KC over the years. They won here last year and although they lost the four previous years, no loss was by more than four points. Granted a four point loss here doesn’t bring home the money but the games have been close. They lost six years ago by 10 points and won the three previous years to that. KC qualifies in a negative situation based on their loss last week, which is 112-58-10. Oakland also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. The Oakland defense is better than they showed last week and it may turn out they played a very good offense, something, which KC is definitely not. We should see a much better effort against a poor offense this week. Javon Walker should also be back to help the Oakland offense. Expect plenty of running from the Raiders offense. This game also qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 75-34-4. OAKLAND 17 KANSAS CITY 14
Cincinnati PK Tennessee 37.5
Cincinnati was absolutely brutal last week. They were even more brutal than I thought they would be. Cincinnati averaged just 3.1yppl and allowed a pretty anemic Baltimore offense with a rookie quarterback 4.8yppl. The defense is still terrible and the offense is getting worse each year. Cincinnati passed for 89 yards for the whole game. It won’t get much easier this week against a solid Tennessee defense, which held Jacksonville to 3.2yppl, including just 1.9ypr and 3.7yps. Tennessee was pretty good on offense, gaining 5.4yppl, including 6.9yps. Vince Young was hurt last week and will miss this game. That’s a good thing. Kerry Collins is much better at throwing the ball and therefore, on the road, at helping the Titans score and win a game. I had Tennessee here last year and they were blown out but that was with Vince Young and I expect much different results this year. Much better defense in Tennessee, much better running game with Tennessee and a much better coach. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Tennessee also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. Numbers favor Cincinnati by one point before accounting for the situations. Too much defense and better running game along with value and the situations. TENNESSEE 24 CINCINNATI 17
Indianapolis –2 MINNESOTA 43.5
Both teams were extremely disappointed in their week one results. Indy looked out of synch and allowed the Bears a lot of rushing yards. In all Indy allowed an anemic Chicago offense to average 5.1yppl, 4.7ypr (183 yards) and 5.9yps. The Indy offense couldn’t move the ball, as they averaged just 4.4yppl and 4.7yps. Minnesota did what they do best, rushing for 187 yards at 5.7ypr. Unfortunately, they allowed big plays in the passing game, allowing 8.1yps and big plays in the rushing game (something they normally don’t allow) at 5.1ypr. Overall they allowed 6.5yppl and averaged only 5.1yppl thanks to their anemic passing game again. The Vikings are in trouble when they get behind because they can’t score quickly when they need to. Minnesota qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Minnesota does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42. Tough game to call. Hard to believe Indy won’t bounce back after their bad performance last week but maybe Peyton being out during the preseason and no Jeff Saturday (potentially no Dallas Clark) makes it harder for the offense to get going. It won’t be easy against a big, tough physical defense like the Vikings playing at home where they definitely have an advantage. If Indy can’t stop the rush again this week, they won’t win this game. But, it’s hard to take Tavaris Jackson over Peyton Manning. This game does qualify in an early season under situation, which is 75-34-4. INDIANAPOLIS 24 MINNESOTA 17
WASHINGTON PK New Orleans 42
Washington looked about as bad in their first game as they were in the preseason. They gained just 4.0yppl, 3.5ypr and 4.5yps. Meanwhile, the defense played average allowing the Giants to gain 5.1yppl, 5.8ypr and 5.4yps. The Saints were impressive against a good TB defense, gaining 7.3yppl, including 10.2yps with big passing plays. The Saints defense wasn’t great but did enough to win the game allowing 5.6yppl, 7.3ypr (that could be a problem against a good Washington rushing attack) and only 4.8yps. Washington qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. The Saints are missing some key starters this week and I’m not sure I like the rush defense match up against the Redskins rushing attack. At least I don’t like it enough that it will keep me off a best bet play on NO despite the solid situation in their favor. NEW ORLEANS 24 WASHINGTON 23
Green Bay –3 DETROIT 45.5
Tom Jackson of ESPN declared the Lions as his pick to win the NFC North this year. Say what? I don’t care if you think they have some good personnel, how can you possibly pick the Lions knowing full well what this organization is all about. Hard to say I was surprised last week knowing I don’t think much of the Lions but never did I expect them to play as badly as they did. They were steam rolled by Atlanta for 8.5ypr and 318 yards rushing. Wow! Atlanta averaged 11.1yps. Atlanta had two long pass plays that accounted for most of that yardage and they only attempted 14 passes. The Lions averaged 6.8yps so the passing game wasn’t terrible. They just couldn’t stop what is probably an average Atlanta offense at best. GB looked very good (especially with the debut of Aaron Rodgers) gaining 6.5yppl, 5.1ypr and 8.1yps against a big, tough physical Viking defense. They held the Vikings to just 4.7yps but did allow Minnesota to gain 187 yards rushing at 5.7ypr. Minnesota averaged 5.3ypr last year and if you take out the rushing yards gained by quarterback Tavaris Jackson, they averaged 5.1ypr, which is about par for the Vikings offense. Detroit qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Packers have won the two games played here with McCarthy as head coach, 31-24 and 37-26. Seven of the past ten meetings here have totaled at least 47 points. Packers simply have too much talent on both sides of the ball to not like them here with the situation backing them. Numbers favor GB by 10 points and predict about 53 points. GREEN BAY 33 DETROIT 20
CAROLINA –3 Chicago 37
Very impressed with the Bears last week. I’m not sold on them yet but did take notice to their 183 yards rushing at 4.7ypr and limiting the Indy offense to just 4.4yppl, including just 4.7yps. I like Carolina a lot this year and look for them to win their division. They averaged 5.5yppl, including 4.9ypr and 5.9yps against the Chargers last week. They did allow SD to average 5.7yppl, including 7.5yps, which could be a concern. I don’t have any situations on either team in this game but will lean slightly towards Carolina in a game that should tell us a lot about the Bears. CAROLINA 21 CHICAGO 17
New York Giants –8.5 ST LOUIS 41.5
Rams were about as bad as I thought and I don’t see it getting much better for them this week. They allowed Philly to gain 7.4yppl and 10.6yps. They gained just 3.7yppl, including 2.4ypr and 4.3yps. The Giants were solid against the Redskins, gaining 5.1yppl to just 4.0yppl for Washington and they averaged 4.8ypr against a good Redskins rush defense. I don’t have any situations on this game but this is a solid mismatch with a good rushing team against a poor rush defense. Of course, the spread is the great equalizer. Rams were just 1-4 ATS as a home dog last year and those games totaled at least 43 points in every game. Giants too physical for the Rams. NY GIANTS 27 ST LOUIS 17
JACKSONVILLE –5 Buffalo 37.5
I thought Jacksonville would win their division this year but that doesn’t look good now. David Garrard, who barely had any interceptions last year, threw two last week. The offense was terrible. They averaged just 3.2yppl, including just 1.9ypr and 3.7yps. They allowed Tennessee to average 5.4yppl, including 4.3ypr and 6.9yps. It doesn’t get any easier for a Jacksonville offensive line that lost both of their starting guards in last week’s game. Now, they face a Buffalo offense, which did a good job last week. They gained 5.5yppl (5.3yppl if you don’t count the fake field goal pass), including a healthy 7.3yps. They allowed Seattle just 3.8yppl and 3.6yps, sacking the Seahawks five times. They will face a similar offense this week that is weak on receivers and will allow sacks. Jacksonville was sacked last week seven times by Tennessee. Jacksonville qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Just don’t see an anemic Jacksonville offense pulling away from a good Buffalo defense and completely stopping an improved Buffalo offense. BUFFALO 17 JACKSONVILLE 13
TAMPA BAY –7 Atlanta 37.5
Atlanta destroyed Detroit last week, gaining 474 yards at 8.5yppl, including 7.6ypr (318 yards rushing) and 11.1yps. They held Detroit to 5.4yppl but 6.8yps so Detroit did move the ball a little on the Falcons offense. TB gave up some big passing plays to the Saints by allowing 10.2yps and 7.3yppl. They did average 7.3ypr themselves but just 4.8yps. Jeff Garcia will probably miss this game for TB. Hard to believe Matt Ryan will perform well in his first road game against a good TB defense that will certainly be focused after their loss last week and be out to stop the run first. I don’t have any situations on this game but will lean towards TB. TAMPA BAY 24 ATLANTA 13
SEATTLE –7 San Francisco 37.5
Seattle played about how I thought they would last week with only one healthy receiver. They gained just 3.8yppl, including just 3.6yps and were sacked five times. They lost Nate Burelson and now have no healthy wide receivers. Seattle allowed Buffalo 5.5yppl and 7.3yps. SF lost 13-23 to Arizona but that game was probably the misleading score of the week. SF averaged 6.6yppl, including 5.4ypr and 7.6yps. They moved the ball just fine. Unfortunately, they turned the ball over five times to no turnovers for Arizona. Arizona averaged just 4.0yppl, including just 2.8ypr. SF qualifies in a general situation, which is 50-21-1 and Seattle qualifies in a negative situation based on their performance last week, which is 75-28-2 and plays against them here. This is a completely different 49ers team this year that should be able to move the ball. They have a better quarterback and a better system to run their offense. The defense is just fine. Now, they get a bunch of points and a very banged up Seattle offense. SAN FRANCISCO 23 SEATTLE 16
ARIZONA –6.5 Miami 39.5
Arizona won last week 23-13 but they were badly out played from the line of scrimmage. They gained just 4.0yppl and allowed SF to average 6.6yppl. Arizona averaged just 2.8ypr and 5.3yps while allowing SF 5.4ypr and 7.6yps. Miami was beaten pretty badly at the line of scrimmage last week, gaining just 4.3yppl and allowing 5.2yppl to the Jets. Miami allowed 7.2yps and gained just 2.9ypr and 4.9yps. I don’t have any situations on either team in this game. Pretty hard for me to lay points with Arizona until they prove they are better than they showed last week. Also hard to take Miami with any points. I’ll call it a seven point game and let the spread determine my lean. ARIZONA 24 MIAMI 17
NY JETS –1 New England 37
NE suffered a huge blow last week by losing Tom Brady for the season. They averaged 5.7yppl and 6.8yps. Take away a 51 yard pass to Randy Moss and those numbers get pretty average quickly. Average is probably the way this offense will perform the rest of the season. The defense allowed KC just 4.6yppl, 3.8ypr and 5.2yps. The Jets looked decent against a bad Miami team, gaining 5.2yppl and allowing 4.3yppl. The Jets averaged 7.2yps but those numbers also get pretty average if you take away the long pass to Jericho Cotchery. They allowed Miami just 2.9ypr last week. I don’t have any situations on this game but it should be a very interesting game. With Brady out, this game becomes a little more equal for both teams. I will lean with the Jets because they are at home and I expect Favre to be able to do more than Cassel who is substituting for Brady. Jets haven’t beaten NE here since 2000 but much different team now with Favre and no Brady. NY JETS 16 NEW ENGLAND 13
San Diego –1 DENVER 45.5
Denver was very impressive last week in their thrashing of Oakland 41-14. They gained 7.5yppl, including 12.0yps. They allowed Oakland 5.4yppl, including 4.8ypr and 6.0yps but most of that was after the game was out of control. SD allowed Carolina to gain 5.5yppl, including 4.9ypr and 5.9yps. Carolina is a very good team this year and SD did average 5.7yppl, including 7.5yps. The Chargers are hurting on defense this week with a few key players out and Denver gets back Brandon Marshall. I don’t have any situations on the side in this game. SD had lost six straight here in Denver before winning the last two years. I like Denver this year and getting points at home, coming off a solid performance is intriguing. DENVER 24 SAN DIEGO 20
Pittsburgh –6 CLEVELAND 44.5
It doesn’t get much easier for Cleveland this week as they take on another physical team that can run and throw the ball well. Cleveland is banged up on offense and the defense doesn’t look good. Cleveland allowed Dallas 7.7yppl, including 5.4ypr and 10.0yps. Those were worse but Dallas got out to such a huge lead they cruised in the end. The Browns averaged just 4.8yppl, including just 4.6yps. They did average 5.1ypr. Pittsburgh dominated Houston last week, gaining 5.2yppl to just 4.0yppl for Houston. They averaged 4.7ypr and 6.1yps and held Houston to just 4.2yps, sacking Houston five times. The Browns qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 51-20-0 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. Pittsburgh has won eight of nine games here, including six of the nine by at least seven points. Physical mismatch for Pittsburgh that I wish I would have believed in last week against Dallas. PITTSBURGH 27 CLEVELAND 20
DALLAS –6.5 Philadelphia 46.5
Both teams looked great last week. Dallas averaged 7.7yppl, including 5.4ypr and 10.0yps. They allowed Cleveland just 4.8yppl, including just 4.6yps. Philly racked up 7.4yppl, including 10.6yps and allowed the Rams just 3.7yppl, 2.4ypr and 4.3yps. Philly has dominated Dallas in Dallas winning the last two years here and six of the past eight years. One of those two losses was by just two points so getting 6.5 points in this game looks like a lot with a good Philly defense. I don’t have any situations on this game and my numbers favor Dallas by about six points and predict about 45 points. DALLAS 26 PHILADELPHIA 20
HOUSTON –4.5 Baltimore 37.5 (Moved to Monday night)
This game is being moved to Monday night because of Hurricane Ike. Baltimore completely shut down Cincinnati in week one, gaining 4.8yppl, including 5.0ypr (229 yards rushing) but just 4.4yps. They allowed Cincinnati just 3.1yppl, 2.8ypr and 3.3yps. Houston had problems in Pittsburgh. They were out gained 5.2yppl to 4.0yppl, out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed 6.1yps to 4.2yps. It appears they will face a very tough defense again this week with the Ravens. Not sure how well Baltimore can move the ball, given they didn’t do a lot through the air against Cincinnati but they should be able to rush the ball well if last week is any indication. Houston qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Houston also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 107-45-8 and also plays against them. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. I’m a little nervous taking a rookie quarterback on the road with an offense that has trouble scoring, especially against a team that plays much better at home. Situations are strong and in Baltimore’s favor. I will take a shot. BALTIMORE 20 HOUSTON 17
BEST BETS
YTD 3-1 +5.70%
OAKLAND +3.5
TENNESSEE PK
GREEN BAY –3
BUFFALO +5
SAN FRANCISCO +7
BALTIMORE +4.5
ROOT
Chairman- Jaguars
Millionaire- Redskins
Money Maker- Bucs
No Limit- Vikings
Insiders Circle- Lions
Billionaire- Rams
JEFFERSONSPORTS
Colts -1.5
Tampa Bay -6.5 -125
Carolina -2.5 -125
Denver -1.5
MLB
Minnesota -145
VEGAS RUNNER
MIN 2.5 vs IND 2* WAGER
I didn't post Buying the 1/2 Point because I see that the majority of shops are using 1.5 in this game, even though a few locals have moved it to 2 because of early work...I do suggest waiting to get the best number and if more shops follow Bodog's lead and get to 2.5...then I definmately will be BUYING it to +3 regardless of the vig...VR...Check back for possible change in spread...
MIN / IND Under 43.5 1* TOTAL
CHI vs CAR 2* TEASER PLAY
BEARS +10 & JETS +8 (2*) Teaser Bet
OAK 4.0 (-120) vs KAN NFL 3* GAME of the WEEK *** (BUY the 1/2 Pt to +4)
CIN 0.0 vs TEN 2* WAGER
MIA 7.0 vsARI 2* WAGER
WAS / NOS Under 42.0 1* TOTAL
WAS 1.0 vs NOS 2* WAGER
You just have to love BODOG for the NFL...especially with the value we are able to get with Teasers...for example, when we tie this up through them...we are able to get the SKINS +8...which is HUGE...VR
YourWinningPicks
BEST BET*
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9-7) VS. San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks were whipped by the Bills last week but that was not such a surprise when you factor in that QB Matt Hasselbeck had no WR’s to throw to and the fact that they had to travel across the country for their opener. Qwest Field is much more comfortable for them and should be a nightmare for the young 49ers who look to be one of the worst teams this year. JT O’Sullivan wasn’t horrible last week but he doesn’t have the ability to stretch the field which will limit the opportunities for RB Frank Gore. Seattle should be able to commit an extra man in the box to stop Gore as star CB Marcus Trufant can be left alone deep. The Seahawks have always been very tough at home and they will be veru focused after hearing coach Holmgren ride them all week. THE PICK: Seattle Seahawks (-7)
BEST BET*
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-7) VS. Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers were seething mad after getting steamrolled by the New Orleans offense last week and they will be out for blood against rookie Matt Ryan and the still a work-in-progress Falcons offense. Ryan played well in his debut last week against the Lions and new RB Michael Turner was a beast with over 200 yards rushing. The Lions however could be the worst defense in the NFL while the Buc’s are one of the best. Turner will20find the going much tougher this week and Ryan will have to deal with a fierce pass rush that will result in turnovers. The Falcons are not even close to as good as they showed last week and Tampa is a great bet under Jon Gruden off a loss as they are 15-7-2 ATS after a loss under his leadership. THE PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)
*BEST BET*
DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) VS. Philadelphia Eagles
This is an early battle for supremacy in the ultra-competitive NFC East as the Cowboys and Eagles both come off demolitions in Week 1. Dallas QB Tony Romo doesn't have good history against the Eagles at home as he has thrown only 1 TD and 5 INT's in his last two such outings against the Birds. The Eagles are also a great bet as an underdog under Andy Reid as they are 41-21-2 ATS in that role. This will be a close game and should go right down to the wire. THE PICK: Philadelphia Eagles (+7
JB Sports
Sea
TB
Cleve
Rocketman
4* Cleveland
Larry Ness
Weekend Wipeout Winner NFL Week 2 (won 38-3 in Week 1w/Philly!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the TB Bucs at 4:05 ET. A rookie head coach (Mike Smith) and a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) helped lead the Falcons to a 34-21 Week 1 win at home over the Lions. With due respect to the two men just mentioned, RB Michael Turner (22 rushed for 220 yards) and a pathetic effort by the Detroit defense were the main reasons the Falcons won so impressively. Detroit allowed 318 yards on the ground (you must be kidding), as even Jerious Norwood chipped in 93 yard on 14 carries. Ryan, the team's No. 1 pick, threw a 62-yard TD pass on his first attempt and was never asked to do too much, finishing the game 9-of-13 for 161 yards (one TDP and 0 INTs). The start was "just what the doctored ordered" for a franchise which endured a humiliating 3-13 season in '07. Before the year began Michael Vick was imprisoned and Atlanta saw head coach Bobby Petrino quit on his players before the year was through, as some wondered if he had quit on his players before the year had even begun. However, things won't come as easily this week. The Falcons will visit Tampa Bay, which lost a tough 24-20 game LW at New Orleans. The Saints were a highly-motivated team and got an outstanding game from Brees (is he for real, or what?) plus a very good game from the underachieving (up 'til now) Reggie Bush. QB Jeff Garcia was one of the key contributors to Tampa's turnaround in 2007 but he's got a 'bum' ankle and Brian Griese will get the start. Word is that HC Gruden wasn't all that thrilled with Garcia's so-so performance vs the Saints and don't be surprised if Griese winds up as the starter this year. The Bucs didn't run often LW but Graham had 91 yards on 10 carries and Dunn had 54 yards on nine attempts (that's a combined 7.6 YPC!). Veteran WRs Galloway and Hilliard each had six catches and Antonio Bryant had three. Atlanta's rush D ranked 26th last year, its overall D ranked 29th and the Falcons were one of just FIVE team that allowed more than 400 points (414 / 25.9 per). Atlanta went just 1-7 SU on the road last year and the Falcons lost both games LY to the Bucs convincingly, 31-7 at home and 37-3 in Tampa. The Bucs were 6-1 SU and ATS at home in '07 (lone loss by one point to the Jags), before a "give-up" home loss in Week 17 to the Panthers. Note that Tampa was 6-2 SU at home in its playoff season of '05 as well and was 6-2 SU and ATS at home when it won the Super Bowl in '02. I believe the Bucs have "playoff potential" this year and expect them to play well at home, yet again. Atlanta is a rebuilding team with a rookie QB making his first road start and featuring a rookie head coach. That's NOT a good combination when facing the originator of what is known throughout the NFL as the Tampa-Two" defensive scheme. Expect DC Monte Kiffin to have more than a few "tricks up his sleeve" for Ryan, with some confusing zone-blitzes and that famous "cover-two" deep zone. The Bucs were tied for 3rd last year with 35 takeaways and 4th in TO margin at plus-15. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the TB Bucs.
Las Vegas Insider-MLB (51-31 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Bo Red Sox at 1:35 ET. The Red Sox haven't given up hopes of a second straight AL East title, as after losing Game 1 of their doubleheader to the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon (8-1), they rallied to win the nightcap, 7-5. Tampa Bay also split a DH yesterday (at Yankee Stadium), meaning the Sox trail the Rays by two games. Perhaps more importantly, Boston leads Minnesota by five games in the wild card race, with 14 games remaining. The Blue Jays entered this four-game weekend series having won 11 of 12 but by losing two of the three so far, have all but been eliminated from postseason play. Toronto ace Roy Halladay (18-10, 2.77 ERA) will start on three days rest against Boston's Jon Lester (14-5, 3.23 ERA). Halladay has been very successful in five career starts on short rest, going 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA but it makes little sense to me why he's coming back on short rest here. I guess it's a personal decision, as he chases a 20-win season. Halladay gave up a season high-tying five ERs plus nine hits in six innings in his last outing (Weds at Chicago) and he'll face a Boston team which is 51-22 in Fenway this year (outscoring opponents by an average of 5.81 RPG-to-4.01), going 36-17 vs right-handers. Meanwhile, Boston lefty Jon Lester will face a Toronto team which is a modest 37-40 on the road in '08 and a team which is just 18-22 this year vs left-handers, averaging only 3.9 RPG. Lester's had quite a season (team is 20-10 in his starts, plus-$956), which included a no-hitter here in Fenway on May 19 (7-0 over KC). He lost his home debut (April 9) against the Tigers but hasn't lost in Fenway since. He's 9-0 in 14 starts in Fenway since that early April start, giving him a season-long 2.66 home ERA , as the Red Sox have gone 13-2 in his 15 home starts. That's some pretty good pitching and I'm riding him here. Las Vegas Insider on the Bos Red Sox.
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING SUNDAY NIGHT NFL CRUSHER
220 Cleveland +6
5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING BLOWOUT NFL FOOTBALL CRUSHER
Denver -1
ROCKETMAN
#11 Denny Hamlin vs #07 Clint Bowyer
Play On: 3* #11 Denny Hamlin -115
My 3rd favorite driver today, I have to go with Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has 1 win, 2 Top 5 finishes and 4 Top 10 finishes in his 5 starts in New Hampshire. Hamlin has an average finish of 6.8 here in New Hampshire which is best among all drivers. Past 2 years, Denny Hamlin's average finish at track type - FLAT TRACK is 7.7. In 6 races, he has 1 win and 4 top 10 finishes. Denny Hamlin's average finish over the past 3 races is 3.0. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes. We'll play Denny Hamlin to finish ahead of Clint Bowyer for 3 units today!
Brian Gabrielle
Sylvania 300
Last Week: Old reliable came through, as Jimmie Johnson won his fourth race of the season and the third in which we picked him. That gave us a net positive 0.5 units on 0.5 units wagered, a return of 100% for the week. On the season, we're up to a profit of 5.69 units on 33.5 units wagered, a return of 16.7%. We're also giving you a winning week in 19 of 25 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won three units on three units wagered, a return of 100%; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 15.73 units on 96 units wagered, a return of 16.4%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Tony Stewart (+600), 1/6th unit. For the first race in the Chase for the Championship, the Smokeless Set heads to the flat one-miler in Loudon, New Hampshire. Stewart had a hissy fit at the end of the Richmond race last Sunday, blaming his crew for the No. 20's second place finish, but it's always been my contention that Smoke runs best when he's pissed off. He had the best car at Loudon back in June, but lost because of bad late pit strategy and because of rain. Nevertheless, I think he's got a chance to start the Chase off right, and finally get his first win of 2008.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+500), 1/6th unit. Johnson is going for three wins in a row, and has a chance to do it. In flat-track Car of Tomorrow races, nobody has a better finishing average than Johnson. Get this: in three COT events at Phoenix, he's finished first, first and fourth. In three COT events at Martinsville, he's finished (you guessed it) first, first and fourth. And in three COT events at Loudon, he's finished a pedestrian fifth, sixth and ninth, though remember, his ninth-place finish here in June was artificially lowered by the rain. I give Johnson a great chance of contending for this win.
Take Denny Hamlin (+600), 1/6th unit. Hamlin won the first-ever COT race at this track, back in June of 2007, and since then he's finished 15th and eighth here. He won at Martinsville, a similar venue, earlier this year, and placed third at Phoenix. This kind of racetrack is his milieu. And you have to admit: you don't often hear the word "milieu" used in association with NASCAR.