Doc's Sports
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Under
The top two regular season teams in the NFC in 2007 are set to do battle this week on NBC. The posted total is way too high and we expect this game to be played to the best and thus the defense will keep the scoring somewhat low. The Packers had two pick-6’s last week against the Detroit in the fourth quarter to blow open that game. Dallas played poor defense until the last part of the fourth quarter against Philadelphia before buckling down when they had too. We expect them to carry that momentum into this game and play much better for sixty minutes.
Robert Ferringo
Take Green Bay +3 over Dallas
A very strong system is at work in this play as well as some solid situational factors. Home dogs that won their last game and are now playing a team coming off a home win have hit at a 61 percent rate in a 200-trail set. If this system creeps up in a non-divisional game that ATS rate jumps to 69 percent for our home puppy. Also, the host in this series has covered seven straight meetings, while Dallas is 0-6 ATS in conference games versus Green Bay’s 16-5-2 ATS mark against the NFC. The Cowboys are coming off an emotional MNF win and now have to travel, on a short week, to take on a team with revenge on its mind. Also, the ‘Boys will be without Roy Williams and against a superb Green Bay receiving corps you definitely don’t want to be short in the secondary.
ROB VENO
CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA -3
Recommendation: Minnesota
With home games at such a premium in the NFL, expect the Vikings to place extreme emphasis on this one. The Vikes are in the second of back-to-back home games after allowing Indianapolis to steal one on this field last week. Minnesota is also in early desperation mode after a 0-2 start while 2-0 Carolina is on a cloud nine high after pulling off their second consecutive come-from-behind fourth quarter victory. With a pair of solid situationals pointing toward the host, expect the fundamentals to work for them as well. Carolina is predicated on running the football and Minnesota boasts one of the toughest run defenses in the league. Quarterback pressure has also been a forte of the Vikings the first couple of weeks and I believe they’ll overwhelm the good but not great Panthers front. Even with the return of WR Steve Smith, this does not appear to be a good fit for the Carolina passing game, which likely needs a week to get in a rhythm. This raucous venue isn’t the place for that to happen. Situational and fundamental indicators are all strongly in the Vikings favor here and this price provides great value
JARED KLEI
ST. LOUIS +10 AT SEATTLE
Recommendation: Rams
There is no way to sugarcoat it, the St. Louis Rams have been terrible through the first two games of the season. They’ve given up 966 yards of total offense and have been outscored 79-16. Now while all that looks terrible on paper, it must be noted that they played two very good teams in Philadelphia and the New York Giants. This week it gets easier for the Rams as they open divisional play against the extremely banged up Seattle Seahawks. I can honestly say that I don’t know who Matt Hasselbeck will be throwing to this weekend. Seattle lost both wide receivers, Logan Payne and Seneca Wallace, to injuries against the 49ers. The Seahawks are already without pass catchers Bobby Engram,Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Ben Obomanu. This week they are left with unproven Courtney Taylor, Billy McMullen (signed earlier this week) and Michael Bumpus, who was signed off the practice squad last Saturday. The Rams certainly aren’t going to be in the playoff hunt let alone vying for a .500 record but not only is Seattle banged up, they are an aging team and one that is nowhere near as good as this line would indicate. Take the Rams
ERIN RYNNING
DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO -4
Recommendation: 49ers
The Lions take a trip to the West Coast as they challenge the 49ers Sunday afternoon. This is a tale of two teams going in different directions. The Lions are brutal from the front office to the field, and I don’t say this lightly as they might not win one game this season. The Lions were embarrassed in week one by an equally dreadful Atlanta team, while self-destructing once again last week against Green Bay. Last week’s loss had to hurt team morale further after battling back. Keep in mind this team was fighting among themselves on the sidelines against Atlanta. Meanwhile, the 49ers played much better than their opening week loss to Arizona would indicate (five turnovers). Last week, the ball didn’t bounce their way early as they were down 14-0 against Seattle early on but rebounded with a huge overtime win. Keep in mind, the 49ers’ new offensive coordinator Mike Martz knows the Detroit personnel and is smarter than anyone on the Detroit sideline. Finally, the caliber of these two in terms of defense and pure tackling ability is wide, and it strongly favors San Francisco. Looking to take advantage of a reasonable line here with the home favorite.
FAIRWAY JAY
OAKLAND AT BUFFALO O/U 37
Recommendation: Under
A year ago the Bills started 0-2 and suffered numerous injuries. Buffalo returns
home this week 2-0 following an impressive 20-16 road win at Jacksonville - an outright underdog winner for us. The Bills’ defense has held each of their opening two opponents to just 3.8 and 4.3 yards-per-play while allowing only 10 and 16 points, respectively. Buffalo will face a stronger running attack this week, and the Raiders are a one-dimensional offense that piled up 300 yards rushing last week in their win at Kansas City. While that was a dominating display, it must be noted that QB JaMarcus Russell was just 6-of-17 for 55 yards passing. He’s been shaky in the early going, and traveling to Buffalo is one of the toughest places to play as a visiting quarterback, especially one that has never made the trip and lacks experience. The Bills’ defense can load the box to slow what the Raiders do best, and while Buffalo’s running game has averaged just 3.3 ypr in two games, they’ll rely on Marshawn Lynch and a short passing game facing the Raiders’ solid secondary. Few big plays in this contest as defense, running games and the clock will be on display.
Wunderdog
Arizona at Washington
Pick: Arizona +3.5
Ken Wisenhunt made a controversial decision when he decided to start Kurt Warner over Matt Leinhart. Benching the supposed "franchise" quarterback, a first-round pick, took lots of courage. So far he has looked like a genius in doing so. Last week Warner threw for 361 yards on 19-24 and three TD passes, and had over 200 yards in the first half alone. The Cardinals appear to be for real, especially if Warner has regained his old magic. When this guy isn't pressured, he is one of the best, which many people have forgotten. He has a very dangerous core of recievers, and the Skins have recorded just four sacks so far. The bottom line is that Arizona isn't yet getting the respect they deserve. Washington and Jason Campbell were struggling with Jim Zorn's West Coast offense through the preseason and into week one, and the talk was that they were just not a good fit. But then he puts up 300+ on New Orleans, and suddenly he is there? New Orleans is weak in the secondary to begin with, and they were missing three key pieces in their defensive backfield in Randall Gay, Roman Harper and Mike Mckenzie last week. The reality is, Campbell had a big boost, but I expect a decline this week. My computer matchups have Arizona keeping this close, with either team having a good shot at winning, and I agree. There is value on the Cardinals here as a dog.
Captain Morgan Sports
Bengals @ Giants
Giants offense and defense are still on a roll since their Super Bowl Victory
Bengals offense is stale and in disarray, look for a 30-7 score in this boring contest
PLAY UNDER THE POSTED TOTAL
GREG GAMBLE’S 2008 PIGSKIN PICKS - 14-7 ATS...67%
NCAA ATS: 6-0 - NFL ATS: 4-6 - Teasers ATS: 4-1
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+3.5) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Like no other sport, the balance of power and momentum in the NFL is a year-by-year accomplishment. And considering the Vikings entered 2008 with the double-dip of a lethal rushing attack and possibly the best run defense in the league, as well as huge upgrades for both the passing game (WR Bernard Berrian) and pass-defense (DE Jared Allen), it was amazing the Vikings decided to enter the season with Tarvaris Jackson & Gus Frerotte as their potential playoff QBs. While they grossly overpaid for both Berrian & Allen, those are the types of moves you make when you feel your just a player or two away.
Surprisingly, I’m probably in the minority in thinking Jackson could be legit down the line, but considering his collegiate development was at Alabama St. and he’s never had an experienced vet to learn from (ala Aaron Rodgers), I honestly believe Minnesota put the youngster in a lose/lose situation. As for the well-traveled back-up, while Frerotte is a harmless fellow (except when he’s knocking himself out after banging his head on a stadium wall) and a decent emergency option, he’s lost more games than he’s won along his journey, has a lower career comp% than the 25 year-old from Bama St., and at 37…should we really expect to see him improve on a career QB-rating surpassed by Patrick Ramsey, Damon Huard, and only 2-pts higher than Cleo Lemon?
As for the fiery Panthers, weekly NFL match-ups usually comes down to who has more passion, desperation, confidence, & less players dealing with babies from groupies from week-to-week. While Del-spaz-homme’s complaining and chest-thumps are almost comical and extremely annoying when your squad is playing against them, his teammates seem to rally around his fervor and respect how he approaches each game. Especially after missing most of last season and the uncertainty of how is career might end after elbow surgery, Spazhomme seems poised to prove the Panthers still have the magic from a few years back. Throw-in the return of the toughest pound-4-pound player on the gridiron & the intensity he’s built-up from sitting out, and I expect Carolina to take the moxy of both their leaders & head out the Metrodome tunnel with a playoff-type intensity.
As for the actual gridiron match-ups, the Vikings secondary has the unfortunate combo of being below average in coverage and slow to make-up ground. Stevie Smith should open things up even more for a Panthers squad already utilizing the skills of Muhsin Muhammad (11 rec, 115 yrds), Dante Rosario (8 rec, 102 yrds), & D.J. Hackett (6 rec, 70 yrds) underneath. Throw-in an extra safety dropping back to shadow the superstar playmaker and the run game should find some room if it can get past the first level of defense.
Quick Side Note, for all the uproar in Bearland regarding Mushin’s comment: “Chicago is where WRs go to die!” , just like a chick entering a Wet T-shirt contest is doomed for the stripper pole, please tell me how Moose's theory is one iota wrong?
While Minny has a stout run D, Carolina’s balanced attack should open things up a little, while the lighting & thunder combo of DeAngelo Williams & Jonathon Stewart has the ability to wear-out a defense by the 4th quarter…so don’t be surprised to see behemoths like 35 year-old Pat “330” Williams & Kevin “320” Williams with arms on their hips late.
As for Childress’s offense, tough to see how the passing game and OL look sharp with the surprising QB-switch…especially since the QB’s name is Grandpa Gus. Considering the Panthers offense has average 23 ppg against two solid defenses without Stevie (San Diego & Chicago), tough to see how they don’t put up a few more as the Vikings fail to keep pace. And if I’m wrong on who wins, at least we have a FG and the hook as some MFin insurance!
Final Score: PANTHERS 27 VIKINGS 20
WEEK THREE SUNDAY FUNDAY TEASER
TAMPA BAY BUCS (teased +9) @ CHICAGO BEARS
HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (teased +1)
Let’s see here…giving Chucky almost double digits when facing Kyle “Party Pictures” Orton seems more inviting than a cleaning lady willing to work topless & fancying a dude with a unibrow. While the Bears defense is still solid, look for the hard-running Earnest Graham & shifty Warrick Dunn to exploit many of the same areas the Panthers did last week.
As new signal-caller Brian Griese, you think the crafty veteran a former Bear knows a little something about Lovie’s defense? Look for plenty of play-action from the former Wolverine as he keeps things simple underneath with his veteran WRs (Hilliard, Galloway, Bryant). As a result, that offensive recipe combined with the pedestrian offense of the Bears and a Hester-rib injury (questionable) makes a 9-point victory by the Beloved extremely unrealistic.
Final Score: CHUCKY’S BUCS 20 BEARS 16
As for the Titans/Texans, not to punish Houston for dealing with all the drama regarding Hurricane KobeTai, but Gary Kubiak’s squad has being living & practicing in limbo the last two weeks…which is usually not a formula for success for professional athletes. On Pornstache Fisher’s side, for all the drama in Collins past, the former Nittany Lion seems to have gained the respect of his teammates & knows this opportunity to lead a playoff team may be his last. With a balanced rushing attack similar to thunder & lighting in Carolina, the electric Chris Johnson & short-yardage specialist Lendmesomepoundcake White should have a field day against a Texas defense that allowed Willie Parker to run like Willie Mays Hayes in Week One.
Throw-in the quick read & release of Collins to his large targets (Crumpler, Cage, Scaife, & McCareins), and the home-crowd should be pleased with the balanced offense. As always, the Texans will throw a few bombs late in desperate comeback attempt, but in the end, the Titans are just a better team with a coach psyched for a 3-0 start.
Final Score: TEXANS 20 PANTHERS 30
DUNKEL
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
The Eagles try to bounce back from their Monday night loss at Dallas and build on their 6-0 record over the last three seasons after losing to a division rival. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21
Game 391-392: Kansas City at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.332; Atlanta 129.231
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3; 39
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6); Over
Game 393-394: Oakland at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.839; Buffalo 133.155
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 10 1/2; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 9; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-9); Over
Game 395-396: Houston at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 128.410; Tennessee 136.271
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 8; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4 1/2); Over
Game 397-398: Cincinnati at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 126.615; NY Giants 138.740
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 12; 46
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 13 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+13 1/2); Over
Game 399-400: Arizona at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.676; Washington 132.871
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Over
Game 401-402: Miami at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 120.800; New England 141.447
Dunkel Line: New England by 20 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: New England by 12 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-12 1/2); Under
Game 403-404: Tampa Bay at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 129.781; Chicago 137.177
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under
Game 405-406: Carolina at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 128.950; Minnesota 135.394
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over
Game 407-408: St. Louis at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.174; Seattle 130.386
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 13; 47
Vegas Line: Seattle by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-9 1/2); Over
Game 409-410: Detroit at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 121.366; San Francisco 123.138
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 50
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+4); Over
Game 411-412: New Orleans at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 129.367; Denver 132.806
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 5 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+5 1/2); Under
Game 413-414: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.696; Philadelphia 142.303
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under
Game 415-416: Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 137.119; Indianapolis 140.546
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+5 1/2); Over
Game 417-418: Cleveland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.471; Baltimore 129.744
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 33
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-1 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: Dallas at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 138.578; Green Bay 139.345
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Under
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
Game 421-422: NY Jets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.842; San Diego 140.306
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9); Over
LT Profits
Minnesota Vikings -3.5
The Minnesota Vikings are making the quarterback switch to Gus Frerotte this week, and we feel that should be enough to get a handy win over the Carolina Panthers here.
Considering that the Vikings should have beaten the Indianapolis Colts even with the beleaguered Tarvaris Jackson at QB last week, and that they were not embarrassed by the Green Bay Packers opening night, we see this move as a positive.
After all, Frerotte has the ability to convert third-and-mediums, unlike Jackson who has missed several wide open receivers this year, and Frerotte has the smarts not to turn he ball over. When you can hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson in the backfield, all the Vikings need from their quarterback is to not lose the game for them. Jackson did just that vs. the Colts.
While Gus is an upgrade, Minnesota still figures to feed the ball to AP often, as the Panthers currently rank 15 in the NFL against the run and they made Matt Forte look like Walter Payton last week. The difference will at quarterback will become noticeable on third down however.
Now Carolina is 2-0 and they get their top receiver Steve Smith back this week. That may be a moot point though if Jared Allen visits Jake Delhomme in the backfield as much as he did with Peyton Manning last week. Also, the Panthers should have trouble running here, which would make them a one-dimensional offense.
Finally, the Vikings had division title aspirations before this season, making this a must-win game for them after an 0-2 start. We feel they will break through with the change under center.
Free Pick: Vikings -3.5
Miami Dolphins +12.5
The New England Patriots made a statement by beating the New York Jets without Brady last week, but a letdown is inevitable here vs. the Miami Dolphins, and truth be told, the Patriots were not really that impressive in that win.
Sure, the defense was great for the most part in the 19-10 triumph, but the Pats were also helped by some questionable play-calling when the Jets got inside the five-yard line, as one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, Brett Favre, was not allowed to throw any passes from that area. Some more imaginative calls may have resulted in a different ending.
Nonetheless, New England earned the win by throwing everything they had at he Jets defensively. Keep in mind that this is an old defense however, and the secondary is a tad shaky for the first time in memory. It is doubtful that this unit can match that same intensity two weeks in a row, especially vs. the hapless Dolphins.
Now Chad Pennington does not have a powerful arm for Miami, but he does manage a game well and he has had some good game vs. New England in the past while with the Jets. As long as he could keep the Dolphins out of third-and-long situations, they could shorten this game with some time-consuming drives.
If that comes to fruition, taking these double-digit points becomes even more valuable, not to mention the fact that the New England offense is not explosive with Matt Cassel at the helm.
Pick: Dolphins +12.5 (-110)
Norm Hitzges
Double Play--Houston +5 vs Tennessee
Arizona +3 vs Washington
Chicago -3 vs Tampa Bay
Carolina +3.5 vs Minnesota
San Francisco -4 vs Detroit
Kansas City /Atlanta Under 36.5
Oakland/Buffalo Over 36.5
Washington/Arizona Over 42
Seattle/St. Louis Under 44
Detroit/San Francisco Under 46.5
Cleveland/Baltimore Under 38.5
Yankee Capper
2 Units - Packers +3
2 Units - Vikings -3
Ben Burns
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Opinion (Over 35)
Currently down to 35 at many books, this is the lowest total on the Week 3 board. I think that's a little too low.
These teams last met in 2006, a December game which was played in Chicago. The game was expected to be low-scoring, as it also had an over/under line of 35. It sailed over that mark, finishing with a whopping 65 points.
Including that shootout, the Bears have seen 15 of their last 20 home games eclipse the total. Not exactly what you'd expect from a team known for having a good defense and a poor offense. The Bears are averaging 23 points per game through two games this season.
It should be noted that kick returner Devin Hester is questionable. I wouldn't normally mention a special teams player, but Hester is exceptional. The speedster's got serious game-breaking ability and is a threat to go the distance every time he has the football.
Hester often causes the opposing team to kick a shorter distance (or out of bounds) to avoid having him get his hands on it. This typically leads to the Bears starting with good field position.
I don't know anything more than what I've read in the papers, but it's my feeling that Hester will play. He was quoted in Thursday's Chicago Sun Times as saying: "I am pushing for it. I'm feeling a lot better so I am hoping by the end of the week I will have no pain or anything like that."
When asked whether or not he would kick to Hester, Tampa coach Jon Gruden responded: "That probably wouldn't be very smart on our part. I've kind of seen over the years, this guy is very dangerous. We'll have to be very selective and be careful of how we kick to him."
As for the Bucs, the total in their last seven road games have have all reached 38 or higher. Those seven games averaged 42.9 combined points and six of them finished above the number.
Tampa Bay is averaging 22 points per game this season and has scored a minimum of 20 in each game. Brian Griese, who was with Chicago last year, is expected to get another start and he should be itching to put up some good numbers against his former team.
Sports Insights
Cincinnati Bengals +13.5 over New York Giants
If people didn't believe in the Superbowl Champion New York Giants, they certainly do now! The Giants are now 2-0 and lead the NFL in "net points" or "points for" minus "points against" with a +37. The Giants are collecting about two-thirds of the bets -- even with a large line of Giants -13.5.
In this game, we want to "bet against the public" and "sell" the Giants after last week’s dominating performance. We'd note that the Giants beat up on St. Louis, currently the league's doormat (0-2, -63 "net points," worst in the league by a wide margin). At the same time, we want to "buy" an underperforming Cincy team. The Bengals finished last season just below .500 (with a 7-9 record) and scored about as many point as they gave up. On the other hand, the Giants scored just slightly more points than they gave up in the 2007 regular season.
We don't think the Giants have improved so much that they command such a large line -- even at home. The point spread is growing as we speak. With the public jumping on the Giant bandwagon, the line is steadily increasing and should hit Cincy +14 or +14.5 at game time.
Cincinnati Bengals +13.5
Minnesota Vikings -3 over Carolina Panthers
This game will be one of the most "lopsided-bet" games of the weekend. The Public can’t believe Carolina is getting +3.5 and they are betting it like they know the score. A glance at the standings shows Carolina 2-0 and Minnesota 0-2. Thus, the casual betting public is thinking that they will grab Carolina and the points and take the seemingly better team. The Public may also be factoring in Viking RB Adrian Peterson's sore hamstring too much. It's looking like he will be playing on Sunday.
If we take a closer look at the standings, we see that Carolina's two wins AND Minny's two losses were ALL close games. Both of these teams have scored almost the same number of points that they have given up (even with 2-0 and 0-2 records!). In 2007, the Vikings were just below the league's elite, with "net points" (PF minus PA) of +54 while the Panthers were mediocre at best at -80.
Minnesota opened at -3 but Sharps have pounded the number off of the "key 3" to -3.5. We'll join the Sharps and take the better team from last year (discounting this season's early win-loss records).
Minnesota Vikings -3
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Indianapolis Colts
This should be a great game between two of the NFL's elite squads. The teams' combined 1-3 record (Indy is 1-1; Jax is 0-2) in this young season will make this a hotly contested game. The Public still loves the Indianapolis Colts but it looks like Indy has lost a step. Although the Jaguars have started the season off slowly, they have lost their two games by a combined 11 points.
SportsInsights' sports marketplace stats verify that "smart money" is on Jacksonville. With the majority of bets on Indy, the line actually moved from the opener of Indy -6 down to Indy -5. The big, smart money is more than countering the Public's bets on Indy. We'll join the smart money and take Jax in what should be a great game.
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
Dr. Bob
I was really looking forward to handicapping this week's NFL card after going 2-0 on my Best Bets and 5-0 on my Strong Opinions last week. However, there isn't anything this week that I liked enough to bet, so I'm passing. I do have two strong opinions (Washington and SF). The number of Best Bets is always low in the first few weeks of the season but it picks up when my math model kicks in in week 5.
Strong Opinion
WASHINGTON (-3.0) 23 Arizona 14
Arizona is 2-0, but the Cardinals were fortunate to beat the 49ers in week 1 (out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.8 yppl, but +5 in turnovers) and beating up on Miami isn’t that impressive. Washington , meanwhile, lost their opener to a very good New York Giants team and then bounced back to beat a pretty good New Orleans squad in a performance that was more impressive than the 29-24 score indicates (the Redskins averaged 6.8 yppl and held the Saints’ explosive attack to 4.7 yppl). Washington has out-gained their opponents by 0.6 yppl (5.6 yppl to 5.0 yppl) while Arizona has out-gained their foes by 0.7 yppl (5.9 yppl to 5.2 yppl), but the Redskins have faced a better than average schedule (NYG and NO) while Arizona has faced a mediocre San Francisco team and a bad Dolphins squad. My ratings favor Washington by 6 ½ points and the Cardinals apply to a negative 123-190-6 ATS statistical profile indicator. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at -3 or less (-120 or less) and I’d take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ or less (-115 odds or better). I’ll also lean under on the basis of a 55-19-2 Under situation.
Strong Opinion
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.0) 28 Detroit 19
The 49ers are an underrated team that has combined a resurgent offense with an improved defense to become a better than average team. San Francisco dominated Arizona 6.8 yards per play to 4.3 yppl in their opener, but lost that game due to a -5 in turnover margin (4 lost fumbles) and then they bounced back with an upset win at Seattle in which they out-gained the Seahawks 5.8 yppl to 4.9 yppl. The Niners’ offense can run the ball with Frank Gore (4.8 ypr) and they can now throw it with J.T. O’Sullivan running new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ system with aplomb. O’Sullivan has averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt and he’s averaged 7.1 yards per pass play despite taking too many sacks (12 so far). The Niners’ defense has allowed only 4.6 yppl and have been especially good against the pass (5.1 yppp allowed), which should serve them well in this game against a pass-heavy Lions’ attack. The Lions continue to throw the ball often (42.5 pass plays per game), but Kitna was just average last season on a yards per pass play basis and he’s averaged 6.0 yppp in two games this season while continuing to throw too many interceptions (42 in two previous seasons with Detroit and 4 picks in 2 games this season). Detroit ’s rushing attack has managed just 3.4 ypr so far and their offense is about average overall from a yards per play perspective (although worse than average when you factor in the interceptions). Detroit ’s defense is what is making them a bad team, as the Lions gave up 9.2 yards per play to Atlanta and then gave up 6.7 yppl in a 25-48 home loss to Green Bay . Using this year’s stats only would favor San Francisco by 18 points and my ratings favor the Niners by 13 points in this game. Unfortunately, San Francisco applies to a negative 21-58-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset win last week, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less.
Tony George
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play:Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
Honestly, the Eagles in my opinion played as good of game, if not better than Dallas on Monday Night, and I am convinced QB McNabb will have a stellar year this season, and is back in Pro Bowl form. Just imagine if this guy had some quality receivers! That is a scary thought, but backing him up is all world RB Brian Westbrook who is a 1 man wrecking crew.
Not sure of Rothlesburger's health coming in here for the men of steel off a struggling effort against the Browns last week with 10 points on offense in that lackluster win, witrh little verticle passing game, is a concern against the Eagles.
Philly will score points and prove to be the toughest test of the season for the Steeler defense, who have faced the Rams and Browns to date, neither of which has an offense to date, so those stats you are looking at are skewed big time for Pitt on defense in this match up. The Eagles average 37 ppg, and I epxect an output close to that at home for Philly.
All in all, the West Coast offense is clicking and WR Reggie Brown returns for the Eagles, in a foul mood here after a tough Monday Night loss. At days end, I doubt the Steelers can trade puches on offense here for four quarters and the Eagles pull away late.
Philly 30 Pittsburgh 21..Lay the wood.
Matt Fargo
Oakland Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
Play:Buffalo Bills -9.5
This line looks very big at first glance especially with the Raiders coming off a big win at Kansas City last Sunday. That win actually helps up out here because I just can’t see Oakland winning two straight on the road. That game along with the fact the Raiders have a big division game at home against San Diego next week puts them in a tough sandwich spot as well. Since 2004-05, the Raiders have won five road games and have lost the next road game all five times and by an average of 19.6 ppg.
What can you say about the Bills right now? After dominating the Seahawks in Week One, they came from behind last week to win in Jacksonville. Right now it is quite conceivable that the Bills can go into their bye week 5-0 after they have games at St. Louis and at Arizona in the next two weeks. Buffalo cannot stumble here and the makeup of this team tells us they won’t. This could be a letdown for a lot of teams but heading home with a chance to stay in first place will keep it focused.
The Buffalo defense will be the difference here. The Bills recorded five sacks in Week One and allowed just 252 total yards to the Seahawks. Last week, they had two sacks and allowed just 243 total yards. Buffalo is 5th in the NFL in total defense, 4th if you take Baltimore out of the mix due to just playing one game. They are 10th in rushing defense, the strength of the Raiders on offense. Buffalo needs to control the running game and make JaMarcus Russell beat it, something has is not capable of doing yet.
On the other side, Trent Edwards has looked very impressive as he completed close to 71 percent of his passes while putting up a 107.7 passer rating which is good for 8th in the NFL. He is completely in control of the offense. Marshawn Lynch has yet to put a solid game together but it is there and this could be the defense for it to happen against. Oakland allowed just 55 yards rushing last week but the Chiefs ran it only 19 times. The Broncos had much better success in Week One.
Oakland heads east and falls into a very solid go against situation, one that is a personal favorite and one that wins at an amazing clip. With the travel aspect of the Raiders, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Bills. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 13-53 ATS (19.7 percent) since 2000. This system is 1-0 ATS this season with the Bills winning in Week One over Seattle. Play Buffalo Bills 1.5 Units