Bob Majors
PHI -3.5 vs PIT
The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to the wild and crazy crowds of Philadelphia.
The Steelers won a tough fought game last week in Cleveland 10-6 in the rain. QB Ben Roethlisberger is nursing a sprained shoulder and will attempt to win for the first time in Philadelphia in 43 years. He was 12-19 for 186 yards and a touchdown and is the NFL highest rated passer at 136.3. RB Willie Parker has rushed over 100 yard in each of his first two games to give the offense an added dimension. The defense has been very potent stopping both the run and pass game in their first two games.
Meanwhile, the Eagles come off a tough fought Monday Night Loss to Dallas losing 41-37. QB Donovan McNabb threw for 281 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have the NFC's highest scoring offense at 37.5 points per game. The defense was very porous against Dallas and need to make adjustments to stop the Steelers running and passing game.
The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Eagles are4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
I like the Eagles to rebound after their Monday Night loss and win convincingly over the Steelers.
Take the Eagles and lay the small number.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Jacksonville/ Indianapolis Under 41.5
The Under is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games in September, while the Under is 9-3 in Colts last 12 games in September. The Indy offenes just hasn't gotten on track this year as they have averaged just 15.5 ppg to begin the year and if you take into account their 5 preseason games, then this team has averaged just 13.8 ppg in the 7 games played thus far. Now they must face a defense that should be the toughest they have faced to date. Indy should struggle to score again. Jacksonville has also struggled on offense this year as they are averaging just 13 ppg and 216 ypg so far. Indy's defense hasn't played that bad this year and should hold the struggling Jag off down. 2 struggling offense vs 2 defenses that are playing pretty well right now, should lead to a game in the low 30's here.
3 UNIT PLAY
3 Team 10 Point Teaser: Miami/ New England Under 46.5, Arizona +13, Carolina +13.5
2 UNIT PLAYS
GIANTS -13.5 over Cincinnati
The Giants have started out the season on fire, going 2-0 and outscoring their 2 opponents by 18.5 ppg. Now they take on a bad Bengal team that lost on opening week to a Baltimore squad that a rookie QB and HC and then they followed that loss up with a 17 point home loss to a tennessee team that was missing Vince Young. The Bengals are just a mess right now and it starts with the offense where they have scored just 8.5 ppg in their 1st 2 games and where Carson Palmer has a pathetic 38.4 QB ratings thus far. This should be a cake walk for the Giants.
I ALSO LIKE
Giants/ Bengals Over 41.5
1 UNIT PLAY
Carolina +3.5 over MINNESOTA
The Panthers are playing with alot of confidence and should be able to eek out a win here vs a banged up Minnesota squad. Should be a hard fought tight game with the Panthers forging ahead in the 4th quarter.
Andre Gomes
PHILADELPHIA Vs PITTSBURGH
The offense of the Eagles was amazing on their first two games of the season by scoring 28 points against the Rams and 37 points at Dallas last Monday. The main reason for that was an healthy Donovan McNabb, who combined 642 yards, 4 TD and 0 int in the first two games of the season. However the offense of the Eagles will have a very tough test this week against the defense of the Steelers. First of all, we can't forget that the Eagles played last Monday and thanks to the Monday night game and a long flight from Texas, the usual 2 1/2-day break between a typical Sunday game and the start of the practice week on Wednesday morning had been reduced to less than one full day. Besides that, the game at Dallas wasn't a normal one, as it was very intense and played at a very high rhythm. It's only necessary to read what McNabb said to understand the consequences of this for the team:
"It's tough on your body," Donovan McNabb said. "I think all of us are a little sore. That's supposed to happen in this game. It doesn't get any easier this week, either. Just go through the right things to do, take care of your body and we'll take care of Sunday."
And the team became even tougher, as they will face the Steelers, which were the best defensive team in the league last season, with just 266.4 yards allowed per game and that on the first two games of the season have just allowed a combined of 23 points (with 14 being allowed in the last quarter of a game, which had everything decided on the 3rd quarter). McNabb got sacked 4 times during the game against the Cowboys and the offensive line won't be at 100% for this game, as guard Shawn Andrews will be out. Jamaal Jackson dealt the whole week with personal problems and so, I expect the Steelers to bother McNabb a lot today. Just remember the Steelers allowed just 159 passing yards to the Texans and 155 to the Browns.
Analyzing now the offense of the Steelers, we see that they are becoming a run offense oriented team. Ben Roethlisberger has a shoulder injury and he hasn't been capable of executing long throws. He has been compensating that struggle with good decisions, however it's obvious the Steelers aren't capable of creating great plays with long passes right now. Looking at their last game at Cleveland, we see that Roethlisberger ended the game with a QB rating of 113.0, which in normal conditions would mean that the team would have scored a good number of points, but the truth is that Pittsburgh has just scored 10 points during the whole game! The option for running the football is obvious: Roethlisberger ended the game with 12/19, with the team attempting 31 rushing carries.
In this game, I expect the same performance from the Steelers, which is a team oriented to run the football and so they will play offense with a low rhythm. The Eagles in these two games have been executing a nice run defense, allowing just 36 yards to the Rams and 68 yards to Dallas. The total is at 44 points, which gives us some confidence on the under. Also Philadelphia is 9-2 Under as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and the winner of this game will be the team which will defend better and not the team which will execute their offense better. So, I'm taking the under in here.
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UNDER 45
WILD BILL
New York Jets +9 1/2 (5 units)
Saints + 5 (5 units)
Chiefs +5 (5 units)
Browns +1 (5 units)
Panthers +3 1/2 (5 units)
Seahawks-Rams Over 43 1/2 (5 units)
Titans-Texans Over 38 1/2 (5 units)
Brandon Lang
These are not his paid selections
Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Colts
The Colts are so banged up that the organization convened an emergency meeting this week to discuss switching out the team's famed horseshoe logo for a Red Cross symbol. In addition to quarterback Peyton Manning (who's playing on a gimpy knee), Indianapolis' walking wounded includes four of its five starting offensive lineman; Pro Bowl caliber tight end Dallas Clark; and hard-hitting safety Bob Sanders, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. It's gotten to the point that, instead of audibles, Manning is going to bark out a telephone number soliciting donations when he comes to the line of scrimmage this week.
Now, I know the Jaguars have their own injury concerns, particularly across the offensive line. But without Sanders – the game's premier run-stuffer – launching himself into the backfield, Jacksonville's men up front only need to stay upright for running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to finally get rolling. After all, even with Sanders on the field, the Colts' defense has yielded an average of 181.5 rushing yards through two games. At the same time, Joseph Addai and Indy's running game is generating just 39 rushing yards per contest. Toss in the fact that the Colts are 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 divisional games and 1-5 ATS in their last six at home, and I'll take the points with what is clearly a most desperate – yet talented – Jaguars squad that needs a win to save its season.
Packers (+3) vs. Cowboys
Gee, do you think Aaron Rodgers is walking around Green Bay these days with both hands thrust in the air giving the single-fingered salute to all the Favre lovers in Packerville? The guy has been near-perfect in his first two NFL starts, completing 42 of 60 pass attempts – that's 70 percent for you math majors – for 506 yards with four touchdowns and nary an interception. Now Rodgers gets to pick apart a Cowboys defense that got torched by Donovan McNabb on Monday night; the same Cowboys defense that Rodgers lit up last year in Dallas when he subbed for an injured Favre and went 18-for-26 for 201 yards. If the guy can come off the bench stone cold and put up those kind of numbers – on the road, no less – how do you think he's going to do at home with a full week of preparation under his belt?
Put it another way: If the Cowboys are giving up nearly 40 points to a divisional rival at home, how many are they going to give up in a hostile venue - under the lights and playing on a short week - against an offense that's averaging 36 points and 382 total yards per game? Honestly, the only thing this week that surprised me more than this pointspread was Bill Belichick actually smiling. I went against Dallas on Monday night, improving to 11-1 with my football best bets this season, including 4-1 in the NFL, by cashing in with the Eagles as a 20 dime release, and I've got to go against the Pokes in this spot as well. There are simply too many factors in the Packers' favor.
Green Bay is on ATS streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 16-5-2 against the NFC, 6-1 at home and 7-0 in September, while Dallas has failed to cover in six of its last seven games. What's more, these teams have met 16 times in the last 27 years, and the home team has won 14 of those 16 games, including the last 10 in a row. The host has also cashed in each of the last seven meetings! Wrong team is favored here, my friends. Play the Packers.
Giants (-13.5) vs. Bengals
Here's how bad things have gotten in Cincinnati: The Bengals this week submitted a formal request with the federal government to bail them out! Not only that, but Chad Ocho Cinco is trying to change his name again, this time to Chad Get Me The Hell Out Of Here. All kidding aside, here's what the Bengals have done in two weeks: They've scored 17 points (total) and given up 41; they've gained 369 yards on offense (153 on the ground) and given up 753 on defense (406 on the ground). And QB Carson Palmer, who not long ago was widely considered a Top 5 NFL passer, has completed just 26 of 52 passes for 233 yards with no TDs and three INTs.
Now this dysfunctional unit is going to the Meadowlands to face the defending Super Bowl champs, who have crushed their first two opponents by the combined score of 57-20 and outgained those two foes by an average of 193 yards per game (398-205). If I'm Cincy coach Marvin Lewis, I slip a Benjamin to the pilot of the team plane and ask him take a detour to Bermuda – but not before opening the hatch door and dropping his gutless players into the ocean. Bottom line: It's taken a few years, but the Bengals, who are 7-14 SU and 8-13 ATS going back to late in the 2006 season, have done the improbable and reclaimed their title of Joke of the NFL.
There's no way in hell the Bengals compete against this enormously confident Giants team that's 16-4 SU and ATS in its last 20 games that have mattered – with half of those 16 wins coming by double digits! I used New York as my very first best bet this season against the Redskins on opening night. The only mistake I've possibly made this year – and there haven't been many considering I'm 11-1 with best bets so far – is not backing Big Blue in last week's road rout of the Rams. This Sunday, back at home with a bye on the horizon, I won't repeat that mistake as I'm all over New York.
K & B Sports
The Seahawks lost at home this season SU and ATS 33-30 in overtime. However, the Seahawks are 7-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in their last nine regular season home games. The Rams lost on the road this regular season 38-3. And the Rams are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine regular season road games. The Seahawks are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two regular season games against the Rams.PLAY:SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
SPORTS ADVISORS
Kansas City (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS)
Two teams that mustered just single digits last week get together for a non-conference contest when the Falcons host the Chiefs at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay 24-9 as a seven-point road underdog, putting up just three field goals. After an impressive performance in his NFL debut in Week 1, QB Matt Ryan looked much more like the rookie he is, going 13 of 33 for 158 yards, with two INTs and four sacks. RB Michael Turner, who busted out for 220 yards and two TDs in the season opener against Detroit, had just 42 yards, and the Falcons were outgained 311-234, allowing 164 rushing yards.
Kansas City was even worse than Atlanta last week, losing 23-8 to Oakland as a 3½-point home favorite, failing to score until a TD and 2-point conversion late in the fourth quarter. QB Damon Huard lasted just two possessions before getting hurt, going 2 of 4 for 17 yards and an INT, and the Chiefs finished with just 190 total yards (55 rushing). The defense gave up 355 yards, including a whopping 300 on the ground.
Tyler Thigpen (14 of 33, 151 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) replaced Huard last week, and coach Herm Edwards has pegged Thigpen to start against Atlanta.
These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when K.C. administered a 56-10 beatdown laying 3½ points at home.
Despite the Chiefs’ 0-2 SU start, they are on positive ATS streaks of 7-1 on the highway, 12-6-1 as a non-division road ‘dog and 9-2-1 in Week 3. On the flip side, the Falcons are in pointspread funks of 13-23-1 as a non-division home chalk, 4-9 at home and 1-4 after a non-cover.
Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, the straight-up winner is an astounding 27-3-1 ATS, with nine of the 12 underdogs that covered winning outright.
The under for Kansas City is on streaks of 13-3 in September and 9-3 in roadies, but the over for Atlanta is on runs of 8-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 5-0 after a non-cover and 5-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oakland (1-1 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Bills look to hold onto a share of first place in the AFC East when they host the Raiders at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Buffalo put up 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to rally for a 20-16 upset of Jacksonville as a four-point road pup. QB Trent Edwards was effective and efficient, going 20-for-25 for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs, though he did lose one fumble. The Bills’ defense also yielded just 243 total yards and allowed the Jags to convert just two of 11 third-down attempts.
Oakland beat Kansas City 23-8 as a 3½-point road ‘dog, primarily on the strength of 300 rushing yards. First-round draft pick Darren McFadden had 21 carries for 164 yards and a TD, helping offset another poor effort from QB JaMarcus Russell (6 of 17, 55 yards), and the Raiders finished with a whopping 355-190 edge in total yards.
The Raiders have won the last four meetings between these AFC rivals (3-1 ATS), dating to 1999, but they haven’t met since 2005, when Oakland claimed a 38-17 home win as a three-point favorite.
The Bills are on positive ATS runs of 10-4-1 overall, 13-3-1 after a spread-cover, 11-3 at home and 10-3-1 after a SU win. Conversely, the Raiders carry nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 27-55-1 overall, 20-41-2 against the AFC, 6-15 as a non-division road ‘dog and 1-6 coming off an ATS win.
The over is on a plethora of runs for both squads, including 5-0 overall for Buffalo, 19-9 for the Bills following a SU win, 7-2 overall for Oakland, 5-1 in September for the Raiders, 4-1 for the Raiders on the road and 14-6 for the Raiders after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
Houston (0-1 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Texans, forced to take an early bye week as Hurricane Ike raged through southeast Texas, get back to work when they travel to LP Field to take on the Titans.
Houston opened the season with a 38-17 loss at Pittsburgh, failing to cover as a 6½-point road ‘dog. QB Matt Schaub (25 of 33, 202 yards) passed for one TD and rushed for another, but he also accounted for all three Texans turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble) and was sacked five times as Houston finished with just 234 total yards. The Texans were supposed to play their home opener against the Ravens last weekend, but Ike postponed that contest until November.
Tennessee flattened Cincinnati 24-7 last week as a one-point road pup, scoring their second straight upset to begin the season. Kerry Collins (14 of 21, 128 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) was serviceable stepping in for the injured Vince Young, and he was greatly aided by the Titans’ 177 rushing yards – with rookie Chris Johnson netting 109 yards on 19 carries. Tennessee also held Cincy to just 215 total yards and blocked a punt for a TD.
Tennessee has won six straight meetings in this AFC South rivalry (5-1 ATS), including sweeping the last two season series’ both SU and ATS. However, the underdog is on a 7-2 ATS streak in this series.
The Texans carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 on the highway, 3-8 against the AFC, 2-5 against winning teams, 3-7 in September and 1-5 as a divisional road ‘dog. Meanwhile, the Titans have cashed in six straight September contests and nine of their last 10 in division play.
The over has cashed in the last four meetings between these two. Also, for Houston the over is on runs of 5-1 overall, 8-0 against AFC South rivals and 8-2-1 on the highway. On the flip side, the under streaks for Tennessee including 5-0 overall, 6-0 in September, 11-1-1 after a SU win, 8-1-1 after a spread-cover and 6-2-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Cincinnati (0-2 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (2-0 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Giants step outside the conference when they host the struggling Bengals in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York trounced St. Louis 41-13 as a hefty nine-point road chalk, racking up an overwhelming 441-201 edge in total yards against the hapless Rams. QB Eli Manning was a steady 20 of 29 for 260 yards with three TDs and no INTs, and RB Brandon Jacobs (15 carries, 93 yards) led a ground attack that netted an even 200 yards.
Cincinnati got beat up by Tennessee 24-7 as a one-point favorite in its home opener, totaling just 215 yards. QB Carson Palmer was 16 of 27 for 134 yards with no TDs and two INTs, and the Bengals also had a punt blocked for a TD.
These squads have met just once this decade, a 23-22 Cincinnati home win in 2004, though the Bengals failed to cash as a six-point chalk.
Including their run through the playoffs, the Giants are on a 10-1 ATS roll, including eight consecutive spread-covers. New York is on further ATS streaks of 16-5 overall and 8-3 against losing teams. The Bengals, meanwhile, are still 8-3 ATS in their last 11 September starts, but otherwise they’re on spread-covering slides of 2-5 overall, 2-5 on the highway and 5-11-1 against winning teams.
The under for Cincinnati is on tears of 7-1 overall, 6-0 versus winning teams, 4-1 on the road and 13-5 in September, but the over has cashed in five of New York’s last seven home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Arizona (2-0 SU and ATS) at Washington (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Cardinals hope to ride the aging arm of QB Kurt Warner to another win when they cross the country to battle the Redskins at FedEx Field.
Arizona routed Miami 31-10 as a 6½-point home chalk, winning and covering as a favorite for the second straight week. Warner went haywire, completing 19 of 24 passes for 361 yards with three TDs and no INTs. That helped the Cards to a whopping 445-236 advantage in total yards, as WRs Larry Fitzgerald (6 catches, 153 yards) and Anquan Boldin (6 catches, 140 yards) both had huge days.
Washington bounced back from its Week 1 loss at the Giants by rallying past New Orleans 29-24 as a one-point home favorite. QB Jason Campbell erased a 24-15 fourth-quarter deficit by leading two TD drives, and he finished 24 of 36 for 321 yards and a TD pass, which went to WR Santana Moss, who finished with 164 receiving yards. The Redskins defense yielded 250 yards, while the offense rolled up 455, and Washington won the turnover battle, 3-1.
The Redskins have won the last six clashes in this rivalry (3-2-1 ATS), including a 21-19 home win last year, though they failed to cash as a nine-point favorite. The underdog is on a 10-4-1 ATS run in the last 15 meetings.
The Cards have gone 17-8 in their last 25 games overall and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 13 roadies, and they are on additional pointspread runs of 6-0 in September and 9-5 in non-division tilts. The Redskins are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, but they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10 following a spread-cover and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight as non-division home chalk.
The over for Arizona is on runs of 18-6 overall, 37-14 on the highway and 25-10 inside the conference. The over also cashed in last year’s FedEx Field meeting between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) at New England (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
The Patriots, successfully moving on last week without MVP quarterback Tom Brady, play host to the division rival Dolphins at Gillette Stadium.
With Brady sidelined for the season, New England was hardly the offensive juggernaut it was in 2007, but got enough done to beat the Brett Favre-led Jets 19-10 as a one-point road underdog. In two games this year, the Pats have totaled just 36 points – which is what they averaged per game last season. QB Matt Cassel, making his first start since high school, avoided mistakes in going 16 of 23 for 165 yards, and Stephen Gostkowski made four field goals.
Miami fell at Arizona 31-10 last week catching 6½ points, totaling just 234 yards while allowing 445. QB Chad Pennington (10 of 20, 112 yards, no TDS, no INTs) was pedestrian before yielding to rookie Chad Henne in the fourth quarter.
The host is on a 12-5 ATS streak in this rivalry, with New England cashing in six of the last eight at Gillette Stadium. The Pats rolled to two easy wins over Miami last year, going 1-1 ATS.
The Patriots snapped an 0-7 ATS skid last week, but they remain on negative pointspread streaks of 0-6 at home, 1-6 after a SU win and 1-5 against AFC foes. On the bright side, they are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 against losing teams and 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 divisional games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are mired in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 0-7-2 in September, 5-22-2 inside the division and 17-36-2 against the AFC.
The under has been the play in New England’s last four games and is also 6-0-1 in the Pats’ last seven at home. Conversely, the over for Miami is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-0 coming off a SU loss and 4-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Tampa Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) at Chicago (1-1, 1-0-1 ATS)
The Bears, who hit the road for the first two weeks of the season, return to Soldier Field for their home opener against the Buccaneers.
Chicago blew a 17-3 third-quarter lead in losing to Carolina 20-17 last week, getting a push as a three-point road pup. Kyle Orton was a mediocre 19 of 32 for 149 yards, but the offense generated just 10 points, as the other seven came off a blocked punt on the game’s first possession. The Bears defense allowed just 216 total yards, but gave up two second-half TDs.
After a tough four-point home loss at New Orleans to open the season, Tampa Bay coasted past Atlanta 24-9 as a seven-point home chalk last week. QB Brian Griese (18 of 31, 160 yards, 1 TD) was serviceable in place of Jeff Garcia, but RB Earnest Graham was the difference, with 15 carries for 116 yards, including a late 68-yard TD jaunt.
The Bears have won the last two battles with the Bucs, but Tampa is 3-1 ATS over the last four contests, most recently covering as a 13-point road ‘dog in a 34-31 overtime loss in 2006.
The Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss, but they are in pointspread ruts of 4-9 at Soldier Field and 2-7 as a home chalk. The Bucs have also struggled to cash, carrying negative ATS streaks of 1-4 overall (all against the NFC), 3-9 following a SU win of more than 14 points, 2-5 as a visitor and 3-12 in non-division road outings.
The under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these teams. The under is also 4-1 run in Chicago’s last five and 9-3 in Tampa’s last 12 September starts. However, the over is on streask of 6-2 for Tampa Bay overall, 5-0 for Tampa Bay on the road, 22-7-1 for Chicago against the NFC and 15-5 for the Bears at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Carolina (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Minnesota (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Panthers, who have posted come-from-behind wins in the first two weeks, look to keep their good fortune going when they travel to the Metrodome to take on the Vikings.
Carolina erased a 17-3 third-quarter deficit last week to beat Chicago 20-17, pushing as a three-point home favorite. QB Jake Delhomme (12 of 21, 128 yards, 1 INT) had a subpar overall effort as the Panthers finished with just 216 total yards, but he led three second-half scoring drives to give Carolina the win. The Panthers won the turnover battle 2-1, helping offset an early blocked punt that gave the Bears their first TD.
Minnesota fell apart in the second half against Indianapolis last week, blowing a 15-0 lead and losing 18-15 as a two-point home underdog. The Vikings’ offense settled for five Ryan Longwell field goals as QB Tarvaris Jackson (14 of 24, 130 yards, one lost fumble) continued to be ineffective, leading coach Brad Childress to announce this week that veteran Gus Frerotte will start at quarterback for the rest of the season.
The Vikes edged the Panthers 16-13 in overtime as a two-point home favorite early in the 2006 season, ending a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Carolina in this series.
The Panthers are on ATS tears of 8-3 on the road, 19-9-2 as a road underdog and 8-2-2 in domes, and they’re also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall. The Vikings, conversely, have failed to cover in five straight games and are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
The under has been the play in five of the last six head-to-head battles between these teams in Minnesota, and the under for Carolina is on streaks of 8-3 against the NFC and 20-8-2 in September. But the over for the Vikings is on runs of 6-2 at the dome, 6-1-1 after a SU loss and 13-3-2 following a pointspread setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
St. Louis (0-2 SU and ATS) at Seattle (0-2 SU and ATS)
The three-time defending NFC West champion Seahawks look to get in the win column for the first time in 2008 when they host the rival Rams at Qwest Field.
Seattle suffered a 33-30 overtime upset loss to San Francisco a week ago, getting outscored 20-10 after halftime and failing to cover as a 6½-point home chalk. QB Matt Hasselbeck had his second straight rough outing, going 18 of 36 for 189 yards with no TDS and two INTs – one of which was returned 86 yards for a TD midway through the third quarter. And the Seahawks defense, which gave up 34 points in Buffalo in Week 1, struggled again.
St. Louis got pounded 41-13 as a nine-point home underdog, gaining just 201 total yards while allowing 441. QB Marc Bulger (20 of 32, 177 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had another forgettable day, getting sacked six times and having his one pick returned for a TD, and the Rams got outgained on the ground, 200-68.
Seattle has ripped off six straight victories (4-2 ATS) in this NFC West rivalry, winning and cashing in both meetings last year, including a 33-6 rout at Qwest laying nine points. That said, the underdog is still on an 8-3 ATS run in this series.
The Seahawks are in a 1-4 ATS skid dating to last season, but they’re still on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 at home, 5-1 in division play, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 following a non-cover. On the flip side, the Rams have dropped five straight pointspread decisions and are on additional ATS slides of 5-13 since the 2007 season opener, 2-6 inside the division, 3-6 in roadies and 7-20-3 in September.
The over for Seattle is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-1 at home and 22-10 against losing teams, and for St. Louis the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-0 after a pointspread defeat and 7-1 after a SU loss. However, both of last year’s clashes between these two stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Detroit (0-2 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Lions, whose 2007 freefall appears to have continued into 2008, make the lengthy trip to the West Coast to face the 49ers at Monster Park.
Detroit followed up a 10-point loss at Atlanta in Week 1 with a 48-25 setback to Green Bay as a three-point home pup. After rallying the Lions from a 21-0 deficit to a 25-24 lead midway through the fourth quarter, QB Jon Kitna (21 of 41, 276 yards, 2 TDs) threw INTs on the next three possessions, with two returned for scores to kill Detroit’s hopes. The Lions were outgained 447-311 and had an 11-minute deficit in time of possession.
San Francisco stunned Seattle 33-30 in overtime last Sunday to cash as a 6½-point road ‘dog. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (20 of 32, 321 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) had a big day passing and rushed for another 32 yards, and WR Isaac Bruce (4 catches, 153 yards) found some of his old form. The 49ers’ defense keyed a 3-1 turnover edge, picking off Matt Hasselbeck twice – returning one 86 yards for a TD.
These two teams have met just three times this decade, with San Francisco going 3-0 SU (1-1-1 ATS). In the most recent clash in 2006, the Niners posted a 19-13 road win catching 6½ points.
The Lions are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. Detroit is on additional pointspread dips of 4-13 on the road (0-5 last five) and 2-8 on grass. The 49ers, despite last week’s upset in Seattle, also carry a bunch of negative ATS trends, including 4-9 overall, 3-8 at home, 3-9 against the NFC and 1-6 after a spread-cover.
The under has cashed in four of the 49ers’ last five home games, but the “over” trends kick in for both teams from there. For Detroit, the over steaks include 10-1 overall, 6-0 in conference play and 5-0 on the highway, while the over is 21-10 in San Francisco’s last 31 games against losing teams and 5-1 in its last six after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New Orleans (1-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Broncos, coming off one of the most controversial wins in years, remain home at Invesco Field at Mile High for another week, hosting the Saints for a non-conference clash.
Denver edged San Diego 39-38 last week in a pick-em contest at home, aided greatly by a botched call in the waning moments on a fumble that should have given the Chargers the ball and the win. Instead, QB Jay Cutler (36 of 50, 350 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) got a second chance and hit Eddie Royal with a short TD pass, and Cutler and Royal followed by hooking up on the 2-point conversion to get the victory.
Neither team had any trouble moving the ball, with the Broncos finishing with a 486-456 total yardage edge.
New Orleans blew a 24-15 fourth-quarter lead at Washington last week, giving up a pair of late TDs in a 29-24 loss as a one-point road pup. QB Drew Brees (22 of 33, 216 yards, 1 TD) had a fair outing, but he threw two INTs to Chris Horton, with the last coming on the Saints’ final drive. The Saints’ running game (55 yards) never got going as they finished with just 250 total yards, while allowing 455.
These clubs have met twice since 2000, with Denver going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 34-13 road win laying six points in 2004.
The Broncos have cashed in their first two games of 2008 and they’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, but they still remain mired in pointspread slides of 7-18-1 overall, 2-11-1 after a SU win and 5-12 after a spread-cover. The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven AFC road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five September starts, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a pointspread setback.
For New Orleans, the over is on tears of 7-0 overall, 6-2 on the highway and 39-18-1 against winning teams, and the over for Denver is on streaks of 21-6-1 overall, 12-1-1 at Mile High and 5-0 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Pittsburgh (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The Eagles, coming off a highlight-reel Monday night road loss in Dallas, return home for an instate, non-conference clash against the Steelers.
Philadelphia came up just short against the Cowboys, falling 41-37 but covering as a 6½-point underdog. QB Donovan McNabb (25 of 37, 281 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) had his second straight solid start, though he did lose a fumble to snuff out a fourth-quarter drive at the Dallas 33. The Eagles defense allowed just 68 rushing yards, but yielded 312 yards and three TDs in the air.
Pittsburgh played an absolute yawner by comparison last week, beating Cleveland 10-6 and failing to cash as a six-point road chalk. QB Ben Roethlisberger was a mediocre 12 of 19 for 186 yards and a TD, but he got support from RB Willie Parker (28 carries, 205 yards), and the Steelers won the turnover battle 2-0 while allowing just 208 total yards.
These two teams have met in the past four preseasons, but the last game that counted was a 27-3 Pittsburgh rout in 2004 as a one-point home ‘dog.
The Eagles have struggled to get back on track coming off games against Dallas, going 5-9 ATS the last 14 times in that situation, and they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home starts. But they sport positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-2 after a SU loss and 9-4 against winning teams. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five on the highway and 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU win.
The under has been the play in four of Philly’s last five home games, but the over is 20-7-2 in the Eagles’ last 29 games versus winning teams and 5-1 in Pittsburgh’s last six contests overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Jacksonville (0-2 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars, off to a rough start after reaching the divisional round of the playoffs last year, head north to the new Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Colts in an AFC South showdown.
For the second straight week, Jacksonville went off as a favorite and lost outright, falling to Buffalo 20-16 as a four-point home chalk. QB David Garrard (17 of 28, 165 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was mediocre for an offense that finished with just 243 total yards, and the Jags gave up 10 points in the last five minutes of the game to blow a 16-10 lead.
Indianapolis rallied from a 15-0 deficit to edge Minnesota 18-15 laying two points on the road. QB Peyton Manning (26 of 42, 311 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) didn’t lead the Colts to any points until a late-third quarter TD, but he guided two more drives in the fourth quarter, with Adam Vinatieri winning it on a 47-yard field goal in the waning seconds. Indy rushed for a meager 25 yards, while allowing 179.
The Colts have won five of the last six in this rivalry, though they are just 2-3-1 ATS in that stretch. Indy took both meetings in 2007, but did not cash at home. In fact, the road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight series clashes.
The Jaguars are on a 9-3-1 ATS streak as a division road ‘dog, but otherwise they’re on pointspread skids of 1-4 overall and 1-5 in September. Meanwhile, the Colts are mired in ATS funks of 0-4 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home and 2-8 in division play, though they’re still on pointspread upticks of 14-5-1 in September and 8-3 coming off a SU win.
The over for Jacksonville is on tears of 10-2-2 overall, 7-1-1 as a visitor and 7-2-2 in conference play, but the under is 9-3 in Indy’s last 12 September games and 6-1 in its last seven when coming off a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cleveland (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Baltimore (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Browns, who barely missed the playoffs last year on a tiebreaker, aim to kick-start their 2008 season when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens.
Cleveland lost to Pittsburgh 10-6 as a six-point home underdog in prime time last Sunday night, getting only a pair of second-half field goals. QB Derek Anderson (18 of 32, 166 yards) threw two INTs, and the Browns finished with just 208 total yards.
Baltimore, which had its game last week at Houston postponed by Hurricane Ike, topped Cincinnati 17-10 as a one-point home pup in its season opener. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (15 of 29, 129 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) wasn’t flashy, but he did contribute a 38-yard TD run, and the Ravens finished with 229 rushing yards, while the defense stifled the Bengals, allowing just 154 total yards.
The Browns are on a 5-0 ATS roll in this AFC North rivalry (2-3 SU), winning and cashing in both of last year’s clashes. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The Browns have cashed in five of their last six division games, and they are on additional ATS streaks of 10-3 overall, 11-1 against winning teams, 7-1 after a SU loss and 7-1 against the AFC. The Ravens are on a 10-6 ATS run in division play at home, but they’re on pointspread slides of 4-11 overall, 3-11 in conference play and 2-5 inside the division.
The under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these rivals in Baltimore. Furthermore, the under for Cleveland is on runs of 8-0 overall and 5-0 against the AFC. On the flip side, the over for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-1 in AFC play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Dallas (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Green Bay (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys, coming off a thrilling Monday night victory, make the trek to Lambeau Field to face the Packers in the prime-time Sunday night slot.
Dallas held off Philadelphia 41-37 in a scoring bonanza six days ago, but the Cowboys failed to cash as a 6½-point home chalk. QB Tony Romo (21 of 30, 310 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) was solid, though he did lose a fumble that was recovered in the end zone to give Philly a second-quarter TD. Neither team committed much to the run, but the Cowboys passing game was just a tick better than the Eagles’, led by TE Jason Whitten (7 catches, 110 yards) and WR Terrell Owens (3 catches, 89 yards, 2 TDs).
Green Bay squandered all of a 24-9 fourth-quarter lead at Detroit a week ago, then quickly got it all back and more in a 48-25 rout of the Lions as a three-point road favorite. After falling behind 25-24, the Pack picked off Lions QB Jon Kitna on three straight possessions, returning two for TDs. QB Aaron Rodgers was sterling, going 24 of 38 for 328 yards and three TDs and no INTs, and Green Bay finished with a 447-311 total yardage edge.
The Packers and Cowboys have met just twice this decade, with each winning and covering at home. Last November, Dallas claimed a 37-27 home win laying seven points, with Rodgers coming off the bench to replace injured starter Brett Favre. The home team has won 10 straight meetings in this rivalry, going 9-1 ATS, including 7-0 ATS in the last seven. Also, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Cowboys are on a 9-4 ATS streak on the highway and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven in September, but otherwise they’re on pointspread declines of 1-6 overall, 0-6 against the NFC, 0-4 after a non-cover and 1-4 after a SU win. The Packers, meanwhile, are on a 7-1-1 ATS tear at Lambeau and are on further ATS hot streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 7-0 in September, 16-5-2 against the NFC and 12-4 after a SU win.
Monday’s shootout against Philadelphia ended a five-game under run for the Cowboys. The Cowboys now sport over streaks of 13-5-2 on the road, 13-5-1 versus winning teams and 6-2-1 in September. The over is also on a bevy of runs for Green Bay, including 19-7 overall, 6-0 at home, 5-0 in September, 5-0 against winning teams and 13-3 against the NFC. Finally, the last four meetings between these rivals have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Jim Feist
HOU Texans at TEN Titans
Take:TEN Titans
Reason: Houston had a game postponed because of the Hurricane and faces a 2-0 Tennessee team with a dominant young defense. Third-year head Houston coach Gary Kubiak prefers a balanced offense with a strong running attack, like he had in Denver, and brings in assistant coach Alex Gibbs. No one wants to open the season at Pittsburgh, and the poor young Texans (0-1 SU/ATS) got hammered, 38-17. "We got our tail kicked," Kubiak said. "We got manhandled." The Texans do have an accurate QB in Matt Schaub, plus ace WR Andre Johnson. Schaub was 25-of-33 for 202 yards and a TD run and Andre Johnson made 10 catches for 112 yards. Houston is 5-12 SU/ATS its last 17 on the road. Tennessee Titans (2-0 SU/ATS) coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the business, which we saw again in a 17-10 upset over Jacksonville and a 24-7 win at Cincinnati. The Titans have a run-first offense for "new" offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, who returns to Tennessee after a two-year stint as the Denver Broncos OC. The running game will take center stage again with RB LenDale White, plus they took RB Chris Johnson (East Carolina) in the first round. Johnson had 109 yards against the Bengals. Tennessee was No. 5 defensively last season, 5th against the run and 10th against the pass, and looks even better. They have a talented young ‘D’ and bring back defensive end Jevon Kearse. The Titans sacked David Garrard seven times, allowed 189 total yards, recovered a fumble and Cortland Finnegan intercepted him twice, then allowed 219 yards and forced 2 more turnovers against Cincy. Look for the Titans defense to shut down this Texans offense today.
SEA Mariners @ OAK Athletics
Take Under
So how good a park is Oakland for pitchers? Very good! With a very big outfield. A's starter Sean Gallagher has a weak ERA overall, but at home the 22-year old kid is 5-0 with a 3.33 ERA. It helps to learn your craft in a park like this. He tries to nibble the strike zone a lot and is prone to walks. However, this game he faces a terrible Seattle offense that swings at everything. It's the perfect type of offense for a nibbler like Gallagher to do well against. After allowing 1 run in 11 innings the last 2 games against good offensive teams like the Angels and Tigers, facing the Mariners will be much easier -- a team that has never faced him. Oakland has a lousy offense and faces a good young pitcher here in Brandon Morrow, with his 2.53 ERA. Morrow has fanned 61 in 53 innings and allowed just 32 hits. Hits and runs are going to be hard to come by in the Oakland afternoon sun, especially with these two on the mound. Play the Mariners/A's under the total.
Dave Cokin
JAC Jaguars @ IND Colts
Take IND Colts
The Jaguars were the hot pick of many experts this year in the AFC, but I was not one of them. In fact, I tabbed the Jags to finish dead last in their division. First, I think they're just overrated, especially at QB. More importantly, I felt the off-season legal issues of too many players indicated questionable focus. So far, that prediction looks good and I believe Jax takes another loss. Look for the Colts to play their best game to date in a wire to wire win.
CKO
10* ATLANTA over Kansas City
Atlanta has turned the page and appears set to make some real progress this season, and one key test will come in this game against the Chiefs. The Falcon running game is much more lively with free agent RB Michael Turner and third year pro Jerious Norwood combining for 373 YR and 6.6 ypc in the first two games. Although Atlanta rookie QB Matt Ryan made some mistakes last week under the pressure of the Buc defense (4 sacks, threw 2 ints. at Tampa), returning home against a team that ranked 28th against the run last season and yielded 300 YR last week against the Raiders, he figures to play more like he did in home-opening win against Detroit. Injury to K.C. QBs Croyle and Huard might leave them with No. 3 Thigpen, and Chiefs 0-9 SU last 9 visiting non-AFC West foes.
TOTALS: UNDER (42) in the Cincy-N.Y. Giants game—Bengals (8.5 ppg) can’t get offense going; G-Men (9-3 “under” last 12 at home) prefer to smother opponents with defense...OVER (44½) in the Detroit-San Francisco game—Lions’ defense resembling a sieve; Detroit has gone “over” 14 of last 18 away!
Phil Steele
4* Power Play
San Francisco over Detroit 35-24
Power Sweep
4H SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit - Mike Martz takes on the team that fired him after 2 seasons as OC. DET is 4-13 ATS on the road but SF is 3-7-1 ATS at home. Despite the Lions trying to become a run oriented defensive team they have been lit up in the 1H of both games being outscored 42-17 and outrushed 212 (7.6)-54 (3.2). LW they rallied from a 24-3 deficit to take a 1 pt lead halfway thru the 4Q but the defense allowed 10 pts by GB & Kitna was int’d twice in the final 5:17. SF played a good game vs SEA LW & beat them in OT 33-30 as a 6.5 AD despite being sacked 8 times O’Sullivan tallied 321 yds (63%) with a 1-0 ratio & 10.0 ypa. Bruce expands the field & knows the Martz system inside & out (4 rec 38.3 LW) so look for Gore to improve on his running numbers of 61 yds (3.2) from LW. On paper SF’s defense faces a challenge with DET’s WR tandem but the DET coaching staff refuses to play to its strengths. SF has the better overall offense & an under the radar defense headed up by LB Willis & gets their 2nd win here. FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 31 Detroit 20
3H ATLANTA over Kansas City - This game features 2 teams projected to have a top 5 DC in 2009. This could be the only time ATL is a favorite in 2008 & they are 1-4 ATS a HF. KC is 3-10-1 ATS as single digit AD. Even though the Chiefs are playing for 2009 HC Edwards made a very questionable decision LW pulling QB Huard despite only being down 6-0. He inserted 2007 7th RD DC Tyler Thigpen from Coastal Carolina who OC Gailey feels is a better fit athletically for the offense. Thigpen passed for 151 yds (42%) with a 1-1 ratio but KC was shutout for the 1st 56 min of the game. KC was outgained 355-190 & allowed 300 yds rushing (6.4). RB Johnson only had 22 yds rushing (1.8) vs an OAK team that was shredded for 142 yds (4.8) by DEN. KC only had 2 drives cross into OAK territory during the entire game with one 80 yd drive. ATL played TB straight up in the 1st 3Q (190-149 yd edge) but settled for 3 FG’s on 3 drives inside the TB 14. Ryan did look awful going 3 for 18 with 36 yds & 2 ints for the 1st 37:30 of the game but that was on the road vs LY’s #2 defense & now he takes on LY’s #13 defense in a rebuilding mode. Look for ATL to reemphasize the ground game & for Ryan to be more comfortable here & ATL gets an impressive win. FORECAST: ATLANTA 30 Kansas City 10
OTHER SELECTIONS
2H Miami (+) over NEW ENGLAND - The ripple effect of the Farve trade continues as NE takes on a MIA team with Pennington instead of an inexperienced QB. NE is 2-5 ATS hosting a Div foe but MIA is 4-13-1 ATS away in Div play. While both teams have a bye on deck MIA is on the road for the 2nd straight week & the inexperience of the OL & the WR’s was on display LW. ARZ jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1Q which forced MIA to abandon the run game that HC Sparano wants to lean on. Pennington only had 45 yds (50%) at the half with 5.6 ypa & was under constant pressure. MIA has only rushed for 121 total yds (3.0) in the 1st 2 wks as they haven’t been able to play with a lead. MIA’s WR’s only have 16 rec’s (11.5) in the 1st 2 games. NE is off a close game vs NYJ in which Cassel had to just manage the game & not make any mistakes. He finished with 165 yds (70%) with a 0-0 ratio & the play calling was fairly balanced (33 run 23 pass). RB Maroney injured his shoulder LW & his status is unknown. We leaned with NE LW as players tend to rally after a key injury but then the team relaxes after a win. We’ll side with a more desperate MIA team getting generous points & not overreact to LW’s win over the Jets & the Dolphins are the Ugly Dog Play (17-9 65%). FORECAST: Miami 13 (+) NEW ENGLAND 20
2H Cleveland over BALTIMORE - CLE is off LW’s SNF game & are 5-1 ATS after facing PIT. BAL is off an unexpected bye week & is 7-3 ATS if they won before it. The extra rest could be just what the team needs for TE Heap & RB McGahee who were ? vs HOU. CLE is a very beat up team & could be without WR Stallworth, OLB Wimbley & both starting Safeties here. BAL’s biggest claim to fame so far is their 17-10 win vs a CIN team that is very soft. Flacco needs the gametime experience & the interruption in their schedule breaks up the momentum BAL had after Wk 1. He only passed for 129 yds (52%) with a 4.4 ypa & his 37 yd TD was when CIN defenders clearly quit on the play. Anderson has faced 2 quality defenses to start they year & now gets a step down in class. This will be an ugly game to watch but we side with the road team here. FORECAST: Cleveland 14 BALTIMORE 10
Winning Points
BEST BET
New Orleans over *Denver by 14
An exciting, if not lucky, home victory this past week against San Diego puts undefeated Denver in the limelight. It also makes the Broncos overrated and inflated from a pointspread perspective. Jay Cutler and wide receiver Brandon Marshall are becoming major forces. But New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees already is a force with more weapons at his disposal despite the loss of star wideout Marques Colston. Yes, Cutler can attack a vulnerable Saints secondary. Cutler, though, still is learning. He’s prone to mistakes. His spectacular play so far has hidden a number of Denver deficiencies, including a weak run defense, a secondary that isn’t as good as perceived and a mediocre ground attack that lacks a true featured back. The Saints go three deep at running back with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Deuce McAllister. Their offensive line protects Brees as well as any quarterback in the league. New Orleans has that balanced offense. Denver does not, relying too much on Cutler. This isn’t going to be overlooked by the Saints’ sharp boss, Sean Payton. The Broncos haven’t been good when cast in the favorite’s role, going 6-15 (28 percent) ATS in their last 21. Denver is off two AFC West matchups and is at another division foe, Kansas City, next week. This is a letdown spot for Denver off its dramatic 39-38 win versus the Chargers when Cutler threw a late touchdown pass followed by a surprising game-winning two-point conversion. That was a draining game, both physically and mentally. The Saints are a much improved club that right now is under the radar screen, especially following last week’s road loss against a rested Redskins squad. Cutler is going to have to carry the Broncos. Weather shouldn’t hinder the warm-weather Saints being so early in the fall. The Saints are the better team and they’re getting points. That says it all. NEW ORLEANS 34-20.
BEST BET
*Washington over Arizona by 18
The Cardinals are 2-0 for the first time in 17 years. This is a team that has had the grand total of one winning season during the past 23 years. Anyone firmly sold on them? Some improvement does appear to be there. They’ve won the time of possession battle in both of their games by a combined margin of nearly 18 minutes. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are putting up huge receiving numbers with ancient Kurt Warner slinging to them. But let’s not swallow the Kool-Aid just yet. Keep in mind the teams Arizona has played – San Francisco and Miami. This is clearly a step up for the Cardinals. The Redskins play in the NFC’s toughest division. They are well-coached on defense. Their offense showed signs of picking up new coach Jim Zorn’s intricate West Coast style. Jason Campbell finally had a solid performance. Clinton Portis remains an upper level running back. Wide receiver Santana Moss is back being a game-breaker. The Cardinals are not a good tackling team and they lack Washington’s balance on offense. Edgerrin James is on the downside of his distinguished career being pushed by rookie Tim Hightower. Tight end Leonard Pope still hasn’t become an integral part of Arizona’s passing attack. The Cardinals are really just about Fitzgerald and Boldin. Warner still has a strong arm to get them the ball. However, he’s a statue in the pocket. Pressure Warner and the Cardinals are in trouble, especially when playing on the road with excessive crowd noise. This could be where defensive end Jason Taylor factors in. It’s a tough situational spot for the Cardinals, too. They are traveling across three time zones. Making it worse for them is this is an early start time. It’s the first time this season the Cardinals have to leave the West Coast. The Cardinals haven’t traveled well lately, failing to cover in four of their last six road contests. WASHINGTON 31-13.
PREFERRED
*Buffalo over Oakland by 18
We had Buffalo as preferred winner last week when the Bills were underdogs to Jacksonville. We’re coming back on Buffalo this week as a favorite. Normally we’d prefer the Bills in their accustomed ‘dog role. But this is a horrendous spot for Oakland and the Bills are playing well. Buffalo is off to its best start in five years, having posted victories against playoff teams Seattle and Jacksonville. The Bills’ offense is coming together. The return of star offensive left tackle Jason Peters is a big key. So is the growing confidence of second-year quarterback Trent Edwards. The Bills are once again outstanding on special teams. Their defense is healthy and more physical that last year. The Raiders have yet to establish any threat of a passing game with JaMarcus Russell under center. There are real character concerns in Oakland. Lane Kiffin is in a race with St. Louis’ Scott Linehan to see who is the first head coach fired. The Raiders are on an off-surface here, being a grass team. They may not have running back Justin Fargas (check status) and are off back-to-back division games. It’s also a very difficult travel spot for the Raiders, going from the West Coast to the East Coast while drawing an unfavorable early start time. BUFFALO 28-10.
Carolina over *Minnesota by 6
These are two tough physical, grind-it-out clubs. Both are strong defensively and on special teams. The Vikings are home on carpet and already in must-win mode. Yet our strong preference is Carolina. The Panthers hold key edges at quarterback, coaching and at the flanks with star wide receiver Steve Smith now back after serving a two-game suspension. Minnesota is a disappointed club having lost opening week to Green Bay and then blowing a 15-0 lead at home last Sunday to Indianapolis. Tarvaris Jackson has yet to show he has the passing skills to be a successful NFL starting quarterback. The Vikings are Adrian Peterson and that’s it. The Panthers defense is rejuvenated. They’ll key on Peterson. No coach is better at covering the spread as an underdog than the Panthers’ John Fox at 31-15-1 (67 percent). Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme has proven his right elbow is back to where it was pre-reconstructive surgery. He was able to engineer enough points to beat two good defenses, San Diego and Chicago, despite not having Smith. Now he finally has him. The Panthers are 23-5-1 (82 percent) ATS when getting points with Delhomme taking snaps. Carolina went 3-0 SU and ATS playing in domes last year. CAROLINA 16-10.
Red Sheet
NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Cincinnati 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NYGiants minus 13½, & is now minus 13. That's right, we've gone against the defending champions in both of their games so far, figuring the losses of Strahan & Umenyiora on that defensive line would be a bit too much to overcome, in trying to match LY's splendid defense, which simply ruled the post season. But the 'Skins were completely stymied in their opener, with Manning & Co exploding in game 2. Sure, the Rams post the worst "D" in the NFL, but this Bengal squad is knee deep in problems, with team unity nowhere to be found. Palmer has led an "O" which has managed just 17 pts & 19 FDs in its 2 outings to date, & won't dent NY "D". RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88