POWERSWEEP
4* San Francisco 31 over Detroit 20
3* Atlanta 20 over Kansas City 10
2* Miami 13 (+) over Patriots 20
2* Cleveland 14 over Baltimore 10
3* Texans/Titans Under 37'
3* Steelers/Eagles Over 43*
3* Lions/49ers Over 44
2* Browns/Ravens Under 38*
2* Cardinals/Redskins Over 42
Pro Angles: 3* Buffalo, Arizona, Carolina,
System: Tennessee
Statfox Platinum Sheet
KC +4
AZ +3
Carolina +3
Stl +10.5
Denver -4.5
KEVIN O’NEILL’S -THE MAX
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Chiefs (+4½) over @Falcons
About the only reason a sane handicapper could like the Chiefs here is technical. The Falcons own most every edge possible in the stats for this game. QB Brodie Croyle is out for 3-4 weeks with a separated shoulder. So KC trotted out retread Damon Huard to play last Sunday. Huard suffered an apparent neck injury (questionable for this week) and was replaced by the anonymous Tyler Thigpen. KC went 3-andout on their first three series under Thigpen. It got so bad the Chiefs tried an option attack with former practice squad receiver Marques Hagans at QB. It didn't work either. Overall the KC air attack is averaging well under 5 yards per attempt. The Chiefs D gave up 300 yards on the ground to Oakland last week even though the Raiders' had to rely mostly on their 2nd and 3rd string tailbacks. Off its miserable start the Chiefs pop from an 81-37 ATS road team bounceback system that already had its first winner of the season (and an LTS winner too!) on Oakland over Kansas City last Sunday. As a general rule I've learned to stay away from systems involving NFL teams at the 0.500 mark like Atlanta. They seem to be inherently unpredictable teams. Much of a team's self-identity is dependent on their record and at 0.500 their self-image is unclear. But I do have a couple of time-tested systems that work well with these teams and the Falcons apply to one of them. Teams out of this system are 95-156 ATS including 3-7 ATS in 2007. I also have the Falcons in a 34-84 ATS system that plays against teams in a role reversal: Atlanta is lined here as a favorite after being an underdog in its first two games. Even though they are 1-1 on the season the Falcons like the Chiefs are mired in their division's basement position. And a big reason I like the Chiefs here is a 94-48 ATS system that picks a side in games where both teams are divisional cellar dwellers. This system went 9-1 ATS in 2007. Without my technical material I would agree with the early betting action on this game - heavily tilted towards Atlanta. But that is precisely why I rely on my technical approach. It gives me the historical support I need to take truly ugly teams like Kansas City. Take the points. Kansas City by 3
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Cardinals (+3) over @Redskins
Both of these teams are off of similarly statistically dominating wins. Cardinals won yardage 445-236 over the Dolphins. Redskins won yardage 455-250 over a Saints team that threw in a clunker. But it was a nice comeback win for the Redskins, trailing 24-15 midway through the 4th and winning. Santana Moss had a rookie on him much of the day, and the result was 164 yards receiving (he also had a 27 yard run). Jason Campbell hit two-thirds of his passes for nearly 9 yards per completion. But really, how impressed are we supposed to be when you beat a soft team like New Orleans on your home field? Shouldn’t it be expected? And you certainly should expect to beat a Saints team when in Week 2 of the season injuries have New Orleans finishing the game with three rookies and a couple of more no-accounters on the field on defense. And Charles Grant didn’t feel like playing all that hard after excelling in the opener. The Saints offensive line played poorly as well. Obviously some of these shortcomings had to do with the prowess of the Redskins. But Washington was playing with great desperation (and extra rest) off of their opening Thursday night disaster at the Giants. It was a good spot for them against a soft team but they still needed a comeback, despite the 205-yard edge and the 3-1 turnover advantage. The Cardinals needed no comebacks, dominating a subpar Miami team. The Cards led 31-3 after 3 quarters, and none of their scores were fluky. Arizona enjoyed TD drives of 69, 92, 71, and 80 yards, with a 60-yard FG drive sandwiched in between. Amidst all the Sunday afternoon dramatics, Kurt Warner’s performance was lost in the shuffle. Bothered by hand problems for so long, you have to think that Warner is feeling well again. After two games he’s completing 70% of his passes, averaging over 10 yards per attempt, and has 4 TD passes and no interceptions. Importantly, he also has no fumbles, a critical stat for him due to his past fumbling problems (49 fumbles in his previous 36 starts over 6 seasons). With both teams off of satisfying wins, neither holds a real mental edge. The thought here is that the Cardinals have more weapons than the Redskins, and will also benefit from the poor special teams play of Washington (botched hold on FG, punt return for TD allowed, fumbled punt, poor punting overall on Sunday). Arizona has been a poor traveling dog in recent years (actually, more than just recent years) but in most of those games have had the inferior team. That’s not the case here. Take the points with the better club. Cardinals by 3.
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Panthers (+3½) over @Vikings
Year in, and year out, one particular NFL team seems to get a lot of hype over the summer as being the “sleeper” Super Bowl contender. This year’s sexy pick was Minnesota. The Vikings were a consensus pick to win the NFC North, and many had their reservations made for Tampa. But isn’t it funny how things all of a sudden change once the actual playing on the field begins? The Vikings sit at 0-2 after losing their opener at divisional rival Green Bay and giving away their latest with Sunday’s choke job at the hands of Peyton Manning and the Colts. Holding a 15-0 lead with 16:24 to play, the Vikes were on cruise control looking to even their record at one. But playing not to lose did them in. The play calling became predictive. Hand off to Peterson on first and second down, rollout pass on 3rd, and then punt on 4th down. Instead of putting the game away, head coach Brad Childress elected to be conservative which allowed the Colts to hang around long enough to steal the win. And after such a deflating loss, how does Minnesota recover? Don’t think they can mentally, and if last week’s box score is any indication, they can’t on the football field either. Ryan Longwell was responsible for all of their points; he kicked 5 field goals. They had less than 300 yards of total offense and quarterback Tarvaris Jackson was again dreadful in the passing game. He completed 14 of 24 for an anemic 119 yards, just 4.4 yards per pass. Overall, the Vikings offense gained only 4.8 yards per play. Defensively, they were once again solid against the run holding the Colts to a laughable 25 yards on the ground. But their weak secondary gave up big chunks of yardage to the tune of 296 yards on 6.7 yards per pass play. Minnesota has a great rushing attack with Adrian Peterson, but their passing game is awful, and the way to win NFL games recently is through the air. Unless the passing game improves, they’ll be in for a long, long season. Carolina’s win two games back at San Diego came as no surprise to us. We used the Panthers in this space, and a touchdown on the last play of the game gave them the 26-24 win. They turned in another gutsy win on Sunday, once again coming back (down 17-3) to beat the Bears 20-17. And if you remember back to their Super Bowl year of 2003, the Panthers won a lot of close games. They are finally healthy on offense, and they’ll welcome back Steve Smith who returns from his suspension. While this game means a lot more to Minnesota as far as the big picture goes, they just do not look good on the field. Adding their questionable mental state to the equation makes them an even dicer proposition knowing Carolina is 32-15 when getting points under John Fox. Panthers by 3.
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Jaguars (+5½) over @Colts
The Jaguars had big plans for this season, and deservedly so, as they were a very good team last year (average yardage 357-314), won a playoff game at Pittsburgh, and gave the Patriots a good game before failing in Foxborough the following week. But the Jags have gotten off to a rotten start, losing a pair of winnable games to get off to an 0-2 beginning. Like their opening loss in Nashville, this one was frustrating. After tossing an interception in the end zone to end the half, the Jags controlled the third quarter, holding the ball for all but four plays and taking a 13-10 lead. But they lacked explosiveness, with no gain from scrimmage of longer than 15 yards and no passes being thrown further than 25 yards downfield (that one fell incomplete in the end zone). Look for a more aggressive offense from the Jags this week. The Colts won impressively in comeback fashion despite a complete inability to run the ball due to a beat up offensive line. They finished the game Sunday with a backup, two rookies, and a guard playing tackle who had practiced at tackle for only three snaps all week. And then cap it all off with the fact that their offensive line coach wasn’t there as he recovers from knee replacement surgery. With only 25 yards on 19 carries, it was all on Peyton Manning and he came through in dramatic fashion, willing Indy back from a 15-0 deficit late in the third quarter. That was a satisfying win, but Indianapolis is obviously far from the dominating club that they’ve been in the past. Word in Indy is that the new building, while nice as can be, is far from intimidating. The RCA Dome provided more impact from the fans and a lot more noise. One team that hasn’t been terribly bothered by the noise has been these Jaguars, as they are a half-point away from being undefeated to the pointspread in their previous four visits to the Circle City, with all of those games against Colts teams that seemed more impressive than this one. The Jaguars will be aggressive, and poised to play their absolute best to avoid a season-killing 0-3 start. This is a lot of points to take from a Colts team with problems with their offensive line, running game, run defense, and their typical abominable special teams (they’re a favorite to have the worst combined kick and punt coverage teams in the league, both offensively and defensively). Jaguars by 1.
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Browns @ Ravens Under 38.5
The league seems to have caught up to the Browns offense this season, and although a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that they have faced two very good defenses thus far in Pittsburgh and Dallas, there is certainly no reprieve this week against the Ravens stop unit. Baltimore has had a couple of days of extra preparation time here after holding Cincinnati to 220 yards and 3 offensive points in the opener. The Ravens’ defense can see the weakness in this division and will be on a mission after finally proving to be human last season. Their veterans know that they are picked to be among the worst teams in this league, and I expect that to add fuel to their fire. Many of Baltimore’s problems last season were due to injuries and fatigue down the stretch. They were on the field constantly due to such poor offensive play. That may again be the case later this season, but for now I expect them to be flying to the ball and making an impact when they get there. They know they have to carry this team again, and they have won a lot of games the past decade despite having an unproductive offense. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has impressed a lot of people, but this will be his second game removed from NCAA 1AA. Baltimore will continue to ease him in with a run-based attack trying to win games with their defense and special teams. There are not a lot of weapons for him to begin with, so they are not going to force things. Their only two touchdowns against the hapless, poor-tackling Bengals D in the opener came on a long reverse and a long scramble by Flacco. Even against a questionable defense like Cleveland, expect a lot of 3 and outs as the Ravens play for field position.The Browns offense, one of the league’s best last season, has produced 413 yards and 16 points in two games. The magic has worn off for last year’s miracle man, Derek Anderson, and the Ravens with the extra time to prepare, certainly will give him some different looks. Anderson’s accuracy has never been his strength, but you only need to be so accurate when throwing to Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. Although the same weapons are there from last season, Anderson’s play has been worse. Cleveland’s D was torched by Dallas in the opener, but played well against Pittsburgh, and gets a break against the weak Raven offense today. Anything on the other side of key numbers 37 and 38 looks safe in any Baltimore game, at least for the first half of the season. Play UNDER
Nelly's Sportsline
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 WASHINGTON (-3) over Arizona
RATING 4 MIAMI (+13½) over New England
RATING 3 SAN FRANCISCO (-3½) over Detroit
RATING 2 JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Indianapolis
RATING 1 TAMPA BAY (+3) over Chicago
Larry Ness
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
The Brewers fell apart in the second half of last season, losing the NL Central title to the Cubs and falling out of the wild card race as well. Nothing much has changed this year and firing manager Ned Yost sure hasn't helped. Milwaukee lost 4-3 at Cincinnati for its third straight on Saturday, dropping to 1-8 on their current 10-game road trip. While the Cubs were clinching the NL Central title with a win over St Louis, the Brewers fell to 4-15 in the month of September, 2 1/2 games back of the current wild-card leader, the New York Mets, with just seven games to play. It should be noted that the Brewers entered September with a 5 1/2-game lead in the wild card race. The Reds are of course going nowhere at 72-82 but have no pressure on them. Milwaukee is expected to go with Seth McClung (5-6, 4.22 ERA), with Ben Sheets hurt. McClung was originally set to pitch Friday but was used for two innings of relief on Thursday. It's just his 12th start this year (team is 5-6 in his starts TY) and his first since July 21 (he's made 13 straight appearances out of the bullpen). Meanwhile, the Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo is 15-10 with a 4.57 ERA and has been very good since mid August. He's 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA over his last six starts (team is 5-1) and his 7-2 win over St Louis on Tuesday gave him a career high in wins. He's 7-3 with a 3.24 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Brewers and with the Brewers slumping so badly, let's ride Arroyo and the Reds in this one.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on New England Patriots -12
If there has been a time recently when the Dolphins have had a chance to beat the Patriots, one would think that time is now as the absence of Tom Brady has forced New England to be a bit more conservative offensively. In their first game in seven years without Tom Brady starting under center, the New England Patriots certainly didn’t look like the team that set an NFL record for points while going 16-0 last year. Odds makers continue to make Patriots backers lay steep chalk however, setting the line at -12. While New England doesn’t seem to have the same big play ability as it had last year, it does resemble the team that has won three Super Bowls earlier this decade. The Pats will try to go back to their roots to extend their regular season winning streak to 22 games on Sunday.
Jeff Benton
Terrible call Saturday with Temple, which got boat-raced by Penn State after a scoreless first quarter. We’ll make amends on Sunday, as we’ll back the Browns plus the points against the Ravens in NFL action.
Yes, Cleveland is 0-for-2008, having lost all four preseason games and its first two regular-season contests. And I’ll grant you that the Browns have looked a bit lost, particularly on offense, producing just 16 points against the Cowboys and Steelers. But that’s the thing: The Cowboys and Steelers very possibly are the two best teams in their respective conferences. The Ravens? Not even close.
And I say that knowing Baltimore won its season opener against Cincinnati before last week’s game against the Texans was postponed because of Hurricane Ike. But the Bengals are beyond awful, and the fact remains that the Ravens still have a rookie (Joe Flacco) as a starting quarterback, and their defense, despite a strong effort against Cincinnati, is aging. Speaking specifically of Flacco, he was efficient in his debut (15 of 29, 129 yards, no TDs or INTs), but so was Falcons rookie Matt Ryan. Well, what happened to Ryan last week against Tampa Bay? He got eaten alive (13-for-33, 158 yards, 2 INTs, 4 sacks).
The point: You don’t just come into the NFL as a rookie quarterback and start having immediate success and winning games. And I expect Flacco’s struggles to begin today against a Browns defense that clearly is happy not to have to defend Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Marion Barber, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, T.O., Jason Whitten, etc.
Finally, the Browns last year handled Baltimore in two games, winning 27-13 as a 3½-point home underdog and 33-30 as a 1½-point road favorite, and Cleveland has now cashed in five straight meetings in this rivalry. Well, make it six in a row, as the Browns catch their breath against an inferior foe and finally get in the win column.
5♦ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Chiefs in the Georgia Dome.
Everybody and their mother loves the Falcons here as the world has deemed these Chiefs to be the worst team ever and a squad that may go 0-16 this season. Sure Herm Edwards' team is not good but when did Matt Ryan and the Falcons ever become a team that can be laying around a touchdown to anybody!?!?!?
I like what Arthur Blank, Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith have been doing with this Atlanta franchise and think they will be a semi competitive team this season but they are still far from trustworthy in a situation such as this.
No matter how good Michael Turner and that rushing offense looked in the opener against a terrible Detroit defense Larry Johnson is still the best player on the field today. Yes the KC star is not exactly happy how things have started but he is still a stud that can run wild against a poor Atlanta defense. As long as John Abraham can be controlled the Chiefs will have their opportunities as Tyler Thigpe,n may not be good, but is up against a secondary that is very beatable.
With Johnson, Tony Gonzalez and a few other pieces plus around a touchdown is just too much to pass up. The Falcons were and still are a 4 1/2 or 5 win team in Vegas this season for a reason and have not all of a sudden become good. They were stifled in Tampa Bay last week and can't be laying more than a field goal to anybody in the NFL, period!
Jake Timlin
Sunday's selection is the Carolina Panthers.
I will gladly take the points with Carolina today as I see them winning outright. I mean if the odds makers are going to give points on a 2-0 team that has looked good and who is getting their best playmaker back from suspension and playing a team going now where let’s make them pay. After all thanks to the Panthers sitting strong with a 19-9-2 ATS as an away dog I can realistically see another excite win as Minnesota takes at least one game to adjust to Brad Johnson taking over at quarterback duties for the Vikings. Flat out the Vikings have been a huge disappointment and to their weak play behind center they will continue to struggle today as the Panther defense is just too good. Real simple, take Carolina plus the points and look outright.
All Carolina!
Tony Weston
So, maybe East Carolina isn’t as legit as people think. Maybe West Virginia and Virginia Tech were just over-rated and maybe the Pirates were just playing out of their asses against those two teams to start the season.
Well, whatever the case East Carolina still lost outright Saturday, costing us our Comp Play.
It snapped a nice little streak for us, but that’s fine, we’re switching gears and looking at some NFL action as we’re taking the Cleveland Browns over the Baltimore Ravens today.
While the Browns come into this game 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS this season, what may change their fortunes is actually playing against the Ravens as Cleveland is on a 5-0 run ATS their last five meetings with Baltimore. Also, recent history shows that the underdog in this series is 4-1 ATS their last five meetings. The Browns are installed as a dog of as many as three points and as few as one, depending on where you get this. And remember, that number is subject to change.
Also consider that Cleveland comes into this game on a 10-3 run ATS overall and is 11-1 ATS against teams with winning records and is on a 7-1 ATS run against the AFC.
On the other hand, the Ravens are 4-11 ATS their last 15 games and are 3-11 ATS against the AFC and only 2-5 ATS their last seven against the AFC North.
Cleveland will turn around their season and get things rolling today. Take the points and take the Browns on the road.
3♦ BROWNS
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at TAMPA BAY
The champagne was flowing in the Rays locker room Saturday as they beat the Twins 7-2 and wrapped up a spot in the playoffs. But what usually happens the day after the bubbly flows? You come out a little sluggish. That's why we're playing the Twins behind Francisco Liriano (5-3, 3.62 ERA) today.
It's been a tough season for Liriano this season with injuries, but since being recalled from Triple-A he is 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA in nine starts. He hasn't gotten much offensive support lately as Minnesota is just 1-4 in his last five.
Andy Sonnanstine (13-7, 4.33) is on the hill for Tampa and he's failed to register a decision in either of his last two outings. But how focused will this team be behind him today and how ineffective will his offense be facing Liriano? Too much bubbly means it'll be tough to hit Liriano.
The Twins need to get the momentum going as they get ready for their final six games at home, including three against division-leading Chicago. Play Minnesota today.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Carolina +3 at MINNESOTA
The Vikings have switched QBs but it's not going to help today when the Panthers come calling.
Carolina has come from behind to win its first two games this season, beating the Chargers on the last play of the game in the opener and then scoring a 20-17 win over the Bears at home last week even with QB Jake Delhomme throwing for just 128 yards and the offense only managing 216 total yards.
Today, the Panthers get a big boost with the return of Steve Smith to the lineup. This guy is certainly one of the leaders of the Panthers and they will be better with him in the starting lineup.
Minnesota blew a 15-0 lead to the Colts last week and lost 18-15 as a two-point home 'dog. The Vikings could not get the ball in the end zone and settled for five FGs from Ryan Longwell. QB Tarvaris Jackson threw for just 130 yards and lost a fumble and continued to be ineffective leading this offense. That's why coach Brad Childress has decided to make the move to veteran Gus Frerotte.
Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with the Vikings and they are also on ATS tears of 8-3 on the road, 19-9-2 as a road 'dog, 8-2-2 when playing indoors and 4-0-1 in their last five overall. Minnesota has failed to cash in five straight games and they are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Look for it to be a close one, but the Panthers are used to that already and will pull this one out with some second-half scores. Play Carolina.
3♦ CAROLINA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Carolina +3½ at MINNESOTA
It is hard for us to back the Vikings in this game, as all of the preseason hype surrounding Minnesota has crumbled down in an 0-2 start both straight up, and against the spread.
Now Minnesota is turning to Gus Frerotte as their starter, and we doubt it will make much of a difference.
Carolina comes into this one off a pair of comeback wins, and they do get Steve Smith back for this one at wide receiver. The Panthers have gone 26-11-2 against the spread in the underdog role, while the Vikings have failed their last pair as a home favorite, and are no better than .500, at 5-5 when laying points at the Metrodome the last couple of seasons.
Adrian Peterson has been bothered this week by a hamstring injury, and with Peterson slowed, and the Vikings offense still showing no signs of life, we cannot back the Vikes in this spot.
Look for the Panthers to continue their early season roll, as Carolina improves to 3-0 with the minor upset win.
Play on the Panthers plus the points.
4♦ CAROLINA
Leroy's Casino Pro Challenge Top 5
Chicago 111
G.B. 85
Carolina 82
San Fran 67
Arizona 64
#1 play 2-0 this year.
Gina
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants
The Giants led by quarterback Eli Manning are playing sound and should have no problems against the sorry Bengals. Go with the G-Men. Cincinnati's offense will have a big assignment against the Giants potent defense at the Meadowlands.
New York Giants -13
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee's defense will control this fight at LP Field. To boot, Houston has played dreadful away from home, 1-7 straight-up and against the spread in their last eight road games.
Tennessee Titans -4½
Carlo Campanella
Surprising everyone, Jacksonville has opened the season up at 0-2 while losing both games as Favorites. Now they head winless to Indianapolis (1-1) for their first Division game of the season, against the team that is the reigning Division champs. This is an extremely high pressure situation for Jacksonville, as this is a road game against a Division opponent and the first time they find themselves in the Dog role this year! Thats a lot to overcome, especially against a team as talented as Indianapolis, so well lay the points knowing that Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS against a Division foe in the first meeting of the season series and the line is 5 points or less since they revamped the AFC South to a 4-team Division. While its surprising that Jacksonville hasnt won a game yet, its also surprising that the Colts are just 1-1 and the win was by just a field goal! With 2 games under their belts, the Colts will turn things around with an explosive game as we find them at 8-0 AST hosting a Division opponent when its the first of back-to-back Division battles!
7* Play On Indianapolis