John Fina
Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars +5 (-110)
Today the Jacksonville Jaguars will be on the road as they take on the Indianapolis Colts. We will side with the Jacksonville Jaguars +5! The effects of a team riddled with injuries were clearly seen in Indianapolis’ first two games, but the health of the Colt’s since then has only gotten worse not better. Center Jeff Saturday is slated to return this week but left tackle Tony Ugoh and guard Ryan Lilja are still going to be absent from the offensive line. Those two games brought the Colts to rank last in the NFL in rushing yards and yards per carry; only managing to gain 78 yards on 34 carries. The Colt’s are certainly not going to get a break against the sublime Jaguar run defense either. Jacksonville’s power rushing attack is going to pose some serious problems for the Colt’s run defense since key safety Bob Sanders is gone for at least another four weeks. Starting lineman Mike Pollock will be out for another month as well and there is also last week’s marijuana incident that got Ed Johnson fired. The Colts rank 28th in the league against the run, which was obvious in those first 2 games against Chicago and Minnesota A football team that can neither run nor stop the run doesn’t have much to go on vs. Jacksonville. The Jaguars are a team with a sense of urgency at a current 0-2. Their focus for this week will be on physically dominating the Colt’s at the line of scrimmage, and before the Colt’s became so unhealthy, the Jaguars were one of their most successful opponents in seasons past. A notable game was that super Bowl 2006 meet where the Jags defeated Indianapolis 44-17 and rushed for 375 yards; all without Bob Sanders. Their last matchup against the Jaguars was at home where the Colts won by only 3 points and Jacksonville outrushed them by at least 100 yards. Bottom line: the Jaguars have no trouble covering the point spread vs. the Colts. The virtue of the Jaguars in this game lies in RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew, a pair that the Colts, try as they might, will be unable to stop. Jacksonville’s offensive line’s health is also going in a much different direction than Indianapolis. Todd Wade, Brad Meester and Chris Naeoli have already returned to practice and will most likely play this game on Sunday. The Colt’s offensive line has taken a serious beating which was obvious in Minnesota last week when Peyton Manning was sacked twice and forced to through 2 interceptions. The Jag’s are determined to step up their pass rush in order to get at Manning so they could secure their chance in winning the division; it was the whole point behind their entire draft. You can expect to see Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves on Manning for the entire game on Sunday. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Jacksonville Jaguars at 0-2 managed a straight up win on Sunday, but we don’t even need that to cash in on this one. Grab those points! Take the Jacksonville Jaguars +5!
The Gold Medal Club
ST.Louis @ Seattle
PLAY: ST.Louis +9.5
A couple of 0-2 teams, and for good reason, both teams have been unimpressive through the first 2 games of the season.Now with the Public now fully aware of the "dangers" of going 0-3, they seek comfort in Seattle.
Seattle is a shell of there former self, for a rash of injuries to the entire receiving corps, Hasselbeck has no one to throw the ball to.The was vaunted Seattle defense, has given up the most points in the league, 34 to Buffalo, and 33 to San Fran.Too much chalk here, this one goes to the wire, 3 points would have made more sense.
Tom Stryker
SEATTLE (-) over St. Louis
Off back-to-back embarrassing losses to Buffalo and San Francisco, Seattle will take out its frustrations on this absolutely awful St. Louis squad. The Rams have dropped their first two games of the season by the combined score of 79-16 and they very well might be the worst team in the NFL right now.
One thing is certain, St. Louis can’t travel worth a lick. Since the start of the 2002 regular season, the Rams have struggled something fierce on foreign soil notching a woeful 17-34 SU and 18-33 ATS record. Amazingly, in this role matched up against a foe that is NOT off a blowout loss of 10 points or more, St. Louis crashes to a stunning 7-30 SU and 8-29 ATS!
Quietly, Seattle has won six straight this series (4-2 ATS) and head coach Mike Holmgren knows that a loss here would destroy the Seahawks season. It’s a good thing that Seattle plays this game in its own backyard. Since 2005, the Seahawks have recorded a sizzling 24-5 SU and 19-8-2 ATS mark at home including a spotless 3-0 ATS in this set coming off back-to-back straight up losses.
According to my database, NFL high-priced division home favorites of -7’ or more are a respectable 8-3 ATS provided they lost straight up as a division home favorite in their last game. This rare situation favors the Seahawks. Yes, I am well aware of Seattle’s injuries at wide receiver and on the offensive interior. However, Hawks QB Matt Hasselbeck has played well against division foes and he will key this must win contest. Take Seattle!
Brian Gabrielle
Last Week: Jimmie Johnson could only manage a second-place finish for us, and the Gibbs cars were never really contenders (though they did manage top 10s), which means we didn't come away from Loudon happy. We lost the 0.5 units we wagered, but on the season we're still sitting at a profit of 5.19 units on 34.5 units wagered, a return of 15%. We've also given you a winning week in 19 of 26 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost three units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 12.73 units on 99 units wagered, a return of 12.9%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Carl Edwards (+500), 1/6th unit. This week, it's back to the Monster Mile in Dover. In three Car of Tomorrow events at this track, Edwards has finished third, first and second, and considering he won at Bristol just a few weeks ago, I'd say King Carl has got this racing-on-concrete thing figured out. He's currently the points co-leader, and while there's something of a jinx there (in the four-year history of the Chase for the Championship, no leader coming into Dover has been the leader leaving Dover), I think Edwards has a chance to be dominant Sunday.
Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. The Shrub didn't fare well at Loudon, squandering the lead he spent the entire "regular season" building when his rear swaybar cracked. However, Busch only knows one speed: breakneck. He'll be back among the contenders on Sunday, not playing it one ounce of conservative as he seeks to repeat his Monster Mile win from back in June. I say he's got a really great chance of doing it.
Take Greg Biffle (+800), 1/6th unit. Yes, I actually do believe the Chase could begin with a back-to-back winner. I actually consider Biffle's win at Loudon last week something of a shocker: he'd finished 31st, 13th and 21st in three COT races at the Miracle Mile. By comparison, his COT finishes at Dover (sixth, second and third) look downright amazing. Like his teammate Edwards, The Biff is also very good at Bristol in the "new car," and I give him a very good chance of hitting on the right setup again on Sunday.
Matt Foust
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers Over 46.5
The Detroit Lions have not left their usual antics behind in 2008, namely losing. Today they will attempt to remove the donut in their win column against a 49ers team that scratched out an overtime victory in Seattle last Sunday. We are going to go with the Over 46.5 in this NFC North versus NFC West match-up.
Detroit has suffered defeat in their first two games largely because they did not start playing until they had spotted their opponents a two to three touchdown lead. In both contests, however, they were able to come back due to the high powered nature of their passing attack. On the season, they are averaging 254 yards passing per game and Jon Kitna has hit second year man Calvin Johnson 13 times for 236 yards in two touches. While the 49ers pass defense has done fairly well so far, Johnson will likely get his.
What I’m really looking for in this game though, are the Lions not to stumble their way to a huge early deficit. That trend has left them passing the ball almost three times more than they are running it (86 passes to 33 runs). This also explains their 55.5 yards per game rushing average. So far the 49ers are giving up an average of 139 yards per game on the ground and I look for the Lions to get over the century mark for the first time this season on the ground. This will make their aerial game that much more effective.
San Francisco has moved the ball at a decent clip this year under new coordinator Mike Martz (fired in Detroit) and quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan has done well (96.3 passer rating). I see no reason why they should be stoned by a Lions defense that is yielding 460.5 yards of offense to their opposition. Last weekend the 49ers put 33 points on what is suppose to be a good Seahawks defense and in week one they out yarded the Cardinals but did not get over 20 points because they committed five turnovers.
Take the over in what should be an entertaining, offensive affair.
Pick: OVER 46.5
Will Cover
Eagles/Steelers OVER the TOTAL.
Philly offense is clicking on all cylinders, averaging 38 PPG so far while Pittsburgh posted 38 on Houston in Game One. Forget those 10 points against the Browns on Sunday as they would have scored plenty more if not for the 60 MPH wind in Cleveland. This one has "shootout" written all over it! The Eagles have gone 4-1 to the OVER after Dallas while the Steelers are 7-2 to the OVER prior to the Ravens. Two excellent QB's in Big Ben and McNabb will put up the points in this contest. Play OVER the TOTAL!
Tom Freese
New Orleans at Denver
New Orleans is 24-8-2 OVER their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 7-0 OVER after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. The Saints are 7-0 OVER their last 7 games going back to last year. Denver is 12-1-1 OVER their last 14 home games and they are 10-1-1 OVER after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. The Broncos are 19-7-1 OVER off an ATS loss and they are 9-4 OVER after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia starter Jamie Moyer is 10-1 his last 11 starts vs. Florida. The Phillies are 9-1 their last 10 Sunday games and they are 8-1 their last 9 games overall. The Phils are 27-11 after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. The Marlins are just 11-27 at home vs teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better. PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Arizona Cardinals +3
Washington is lucky to be at 1-1 as it had to come from behind in the 4th quarter against New Orleans last week. We'll take the confident Cards catching a field goal here. First off, the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series. The Cardinals are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games overall, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September. The Redskins are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Skins are susceptible in the secondary and that gives a good passing team the edge here. Take the points.
JB'S COMPUTER PICKS
Cleveland Indians -150
Tampa Bay Rays -115
Los Angeles Angels -140
Chris Jordan
Pittsburgh at PHILADELPHIA -3
Let's play the Eagles in the Keystone State clash, as I believe last week's loss to Dallas is still smarts. Philly was impressive in all facets on offense last Monday, Dallas was simply better.
This week that won't be the case, as the Eagles are going to light up the scoreboard for the third straight week, while shutting down their intrastate rivals.
Pittsburgh is good, don't get me wrong, but I don't believe it penetrates the Eagles' defense in the same manner Dallas did. There simply aren't enough weapons to do that.
Playing to avenge the Monday night loss, lay the slim number with the Green Birds.
4♦ EAGLES
Baltimore at N.Y. YANKEES -230
We're also going to play the Yankees on the Run Line tonight, as the Bombers are playing their final game inside the House the Ruth Built, and will certainly bank on them to put on a show. After all, what do the Orioles care?
We have Andy Pettitte toeing the slab, so we know we'll get a solid performance from the mound. He is 24-6 with a 3.73 ERA in his career against the Orioles, including 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA this season.
And let's be realistic folks, after making 13 consecutive appearances in the postseason - one shy of the major league record - the Yankees are sitting 6-1/2 games behind Boston in the AL wild-card race, and I highly doubt New York will be tying the record to extend Yankee Stadium's existence beyond Sunday night.
Baltimore has lost four straight and has the second-worst record on the junior circuit, so let's bank on some pinstripes in this one.
1♦ YANKEES RUN LINE
Bob Balfe
Kansas City/Atlanta Over 36
Kansas City will start Tyler Thigpen today and it appears that thinks are looking bad for the Chiefs however they still have Larry Johnson running the ball and something tells me Damon Huard might get back on the field in a winnable game against a young Falcons team. The problem the Chiefs will have today will be their defense. Surtain is out which will open up more passing for Matt Ryan backed up with a good dosage of Michael Turner. Atlanta has the capability to score 30 points today. Both of these teams matchup great offensively against a smaller and injured defense. Take the Over.
Brandon Lang
SUNDAY
20 Dime Patriots
5 Dime Packers
FREE - Cowboys/Packers OVER
John Ryan
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Braves – Yes, it appears that another collapse will occur and the Mets will lose the divisional championship to the Phillies. But, the there is a team that has collapsed into a coma and that is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Mets will only make the playoffs dues that the Brewers “drunken” state of play. Yes, the pun was intended. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 126-105 making 66.9 units since 2002. Play on all September dogs with a money line of +100 or higher stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season. Take the Braves.
FRANK ROSENTHAL
PADRES EVEN SB
DBACKS-140 SB
PHILLY-105 SB
UNDER 9.5 SB+
GIANTS UNDER 7.5 SB+
TRIBE-140 SB
KC+135 SB
ANGELS-125 SB
NFL - WEEK 3
BILLS-9 SB
SKINS-3 SB+
DOLPHINS+12.5 SB
UNDER 37 SB
PANTHERS+3.5 SB+
UNDER 37.5 SB+
RAMS+10 SB+
49ERS-4 SB
JAGS+5 SB
PACK+3 SB
UNDER 52 SB+
KING CREOLE SPORTS
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
PLAY on: UNDER the TOTAL
In week 3, we’ll be on the UNDER in the Colts / Jags game. We're already supported by one of the Rushing System mentioned on page three of this week's Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET which has gone 1-9 O/U. And we've got more OU ‘ammo’ to boot: AFC South DIVISION games are 1-6 O/U when the home team is favored. Indy’s off a SU road fav win and a SU home fav loss to start the season. Since 1982, GAME 3 teams are 1-8 O/U off a SUATS road fav win and a SUATS home fav loss.. and 0-4 O/U since 1995. The Jacksonville Jaguars had high expectations for the 2008 season, but they have basically s**t the bed thus far... with 2 outright FAVORITE losses in a row to Tennessee and Buffalo. GAME 3 teams who have lost EACH of their first two games as a FAVORITE are 1-7 O/U since the 1999 season... and 0-4 O/U on the road.