Tom Freese
Atlanta at Oakland
Atlanta is 9-1 UNDER in road games off one or more straight Unders and they are 13-4 UNDER UNDER as road favorites of 3 or less points. The Falcons are 20-8 UNDER in November and they are 41-19-2 UNDER after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Oakland is 13-5-1 UNDER after scoring less than 15 points in their last game and they are 41-18-2 UNDER their last 61 games vs. winning teams. The Raiders are 4-1-1 UNDER in Week 9 and they are 5-1 UNDER after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jimmy The Moose
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Over
Arizona is averaging 28.6 PPG and their D is allowing 24.4 PPG this season making the over a profitable 5-2 on the year. In the Cardinals last 54 road games the over is a profitable 39-15. In their last 17 games following an ATS win the over is 14-3. The over is 36-17 in their last 53 games overall. Under Haslett St. Louis has finally found their offense. The Rams have played over the total in their last 6 home games. In their last 11 games following a SU loss the over is 9-2. St. Louis has played the over in 6 of their last 8 vs. NFC team's. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in the Cardinals lst 6 visits to St. Louis. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings overall between the clubs. Look for a high-scoring game this afternoon. Play the over.
Stephen Nover
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
PICK: New York Giants -8.5
The Dallas Cowboys eked out a big home win without Tony Romo against a solid Tampa Bay squad last week despite scoring only 13 points.
The Cowboys are limping into their bye next week trying to get by starting a washed-up human statue at quarterback, Brad Johnson. They're not going to get away with another close decision here.
The Giants are too good, arguably the best team in football, have home-field and the necessary power in the trenches to keep Dallas from playing smashmouth.
The Cowboys want to ride Marion Barber and have Johnson just do his dink-and-dunk routine. Johnson has lived down to his derisive nickname of "Checkdown" because he rarely even looks downfield. Just ask Terrell Owens how frustrating that is. Owens is reduced to cipher status with just seven receptions for 64 yards during the past two weeks while Johnson fills in for Romo.
That's not going to get it done against the Giants. The defending Super Bowl champions aren't stupid. Barber is going to see eight-man fronts and Owens is going to face press coverage and double-teams.
There is a sentiment that you can't lay this many points with the Giants against such a strong division foe. I ask why not? Right now the Cowboys are just the Cowboys in name only.
They are full of holes and injuries. Johnson should have retired after he helped Tampa Bay win the Super Bowl. He's embarrassing to watch now. He's so bad that career journeyman Brooks Bollinger may see action. Anytime you see a quarterback from Wisconsin on the field the white flag has been raised.
The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary and Johnson probably won't have his main checkdown target, tight end Jason Witten. He has a broken rib and has been unable to practice. I seriously doubt he plays.
The Giants have a power, balanced attack and a swarming, well-coached defense that leads the league in sacks. Even though they are off a tough game, too, beating Pittsburgh, they certainly won't lack for incentive to bury their hated division foe.
Once the inevitable starts to happen - the Cowboys falling behind - then things are going to detoriate real fast for Dallas. You will be sorry then that you didn't lay the points here.
Game Time Sports Advisors
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns -1
We are backing the Browns as our FREE PLAY Nice revenge spot after getting mauled 25-10 in BLT. Baltimore off wins over Miami and Oakland, but have lost 7 of 9 on the road and are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. Browns have the clear edge on offense here, but you will be suprised to know that their D is just as good as the Ravens. Cleveland has held 9 of their last 11 foes to under 20 points. Ravens just 4-9 ATS vs division on the road.
Craig Trapp
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Baltimore Ravens ML
Well many have jumped back on the bandwagon for the Browns. Not me I still believe this team can't consistently stop people on defense and the offense still will give up too many TO's. On the other hand I love the up and coming BAL team. In fact still think they have very good chance to make playoffs. Everybody knows about BAL defense and how stingy they are but lets give credit to there improving offense. They have added Troy Smith package into there game plan and have had much success with it. Look for him to get even more snaps and special plays this week. Take the Ravens in an easy win. SCORE BAL 27 - CLE 16
WILD BILL
New York Jets +5 1/2 (5 units)
Packers +5 1/2 (5 units)
Miami Dolphins +3 (5 units)
Dallas Cowboys +9 1/2 (5 units)
Philadelphia Eagles -7 (5 units)
Patriots +5 1/2 (5 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 (5 units)
Tenn-Green Bay Packers Over 41 1/2 (5 units)
Giants-Dallas Cowboys Over 41 (5 units)
Colts-Patriots Over 44 (5 units)
Nevada Sharpshooter
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
The 4-3 Ravens travel to Cleveland to take on the 3-4 Browns. Last week the Ravens brought back the single wing offense using two Quarterbacks on the field at once. One of the plays from this formation resulted in a 43 yard TD pass from QB Smith to QB Flacco vs the Raiders. The reason is clear why the Ravens have resorted to trickery, they have been unable to move the ball consistantly using more convential plays. The Raven offense ranks dead last in the NFL averaging a paltry 239.5 yards per game. The defense which is battling through some key injuries has been mediorce ranking 19th in the league and 23rd vs the rush.
Cleveland will look to continue its strong play after a 23-17 road win over Jacksonville last week. After a bad start the Browns are starting to look like a team ready to contend for a playoff spot. While they still rank 27th in defense, they have moved up to 9th in the league in offense. The Browns also have a humiliating 10-28 loss in week 3 to avenge against the Ravens.
Don’t let the records fool you, Cleveland is the better team here. The Ravens 4 wins are against Cincy, Cleveland (early), Miami and Oakland. Cleveland though is playing well right now, after a slow start they have won 3 of their last 4 including victories over the New York Giants and the road win over Jacksonville. Take Cleveland -1.5 over Baltimore.
Mike Wynn Sports
Green Bay @ Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans may have silenced some of the critics with an impressive come from behind win over Indianapolis Monday night. Titans remain the only unbeaten team in the league at 7-0, but they’ll have test on their hands here Sunday when the Packers come to town. Green Bay is also coming off a win over Indianapolis in week 7 and they manhandled the Colts in a 34-14 win at Lambeau Field. Packers played their best game of the year in that win and they should be a well prepared team having the bye week to get ready for the Titans Sunday. So let’s take a closer look at both these squads and we’ll start with the visiting Packers.
Green Bay Packers have to be pretty pleased with the position of their team right now. The Packers are 4-3 on the season and they’re coming off arguably their best two games of the season, winning at Seattle and at home over Indianapolis. Packer fans have to be pleased with Aaron Rogers and the job he’s doing. Rogers had to endure the Favre fiasco in the off-season and pre-season, and all he’s done is be terrific. Rogers has completed 65.6% of his passes this season and his 12 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio stacks with most anybody in the league. In the running game Ryan Grant has started the season slowly being injured coming into the season, but he’s been improving and should be 100% for this one coming off a bye week. Grant is the workhorse out of the backfield for the Pack with 464 yards on the season, but his 3.4 yards per carry is way down from last years 5.1. WR Greg Jennings has become Rogers favorite target in the passing game. Jennings 37 catches and 4 touchdowns leads all Packer receivers this season and he’s terrific in getting yards after the catch. On the defensive side of the ball the Packers will be tested against the Tennessee rushing attack. Green Bay defense only ranks as number 25 in the league against the run, but they’re solid against the pass ranking number 6. Green Bay will have to find a way to get Tennessee is into some third and long situations and take advantage of their defensive strength.
Tennessee Titans remain the only unbeaten, but I don’t think the 72 Dolphins are too worried at this point. Jeff Fisher has a blue-collar team that plays great defensive and controls the clock with the smash mouth running game. Tennessee Titans won’t blow many teams out but they won’t be blown out either. Tennessee leads the AFC in rushing at 144 yards per game on the ground, but the passing game is only ranked number 15. Tennessee QB Kerry Collins isn’t asked to do a whole lot offensively, but he showed Monday night that he can make the throws and led Tennessee to the win over the Colts. Collins numbers aren’t very good as he’s completed 58.2% of his passes and has 3 thrown interceptions to just 3 touchdowns this year. Titans prefer to get it done in the trenches where they run behind a big offensive line. Chris Johnson & LenDale White are both having nice seasons. Johnson averaging 5.1 yards per carry leads the team in rushing with 626 yards on the ground, while LenDale White is the man at the goal line leading the league in rushing touchdowns with 10. In the passing game the Titans rarely go deep and tend to throw to the tight ends Bo Scaife & Alge Crumpler. Scaife leads the team in catches and receiving yardage this season and has 1 of just 4 receiving touchdowns this season. Tennessee obviously not built to outscore opponents but they’re built to play terrific defense. Tennessee gives up just 90 yards a game on the ground and just 185 yards per game through the air, and kicker Rob Bironis has one the best legs in the NFL. Play great defense, have a great kicker, and controlling the clock with a strong running game is Jeff Fisher’s recipe for success and it’s working so far this season for the Titans.
Taking a look at the trends and angles for this one, both teams are certainly go withs right now. Tennessee is 7-0 straight up and ATS this season while the Packers are riding a 17-7 ATS run over the last couple of seasons. Green Bay also 14-5 ATS in all road games the last 3 seasons while Tennessee is a solid 29-14 ATS versus non-conference opponents since 1992. I can’t find a good reason to take a side in this one Sunday so we’ll focus on the total and advise an over play Sunday. Green Bay 12-4 over the total the last 3 seasons including 4-1 over as a road dog of 3½-7 points. Tennessee with their defense a surprising 3-1 over the total this year at home and they’re a huge 30-15 over versus non-conference foes since 1992 including 10-3 over versus the NFC North. Take this one over the total of 42 points Sunday.
Dr. Vegas
Dolphins vs Broncos
Here is a game between couple of near-.500 teams looking to break away from the pack. Miami is 3-4 straight up and 4-3 ATS. Denver is 4-3 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS.
The Dolphins have lost their road games by an average of 1 point per game, while the Broncos’ home average - despite a 3-1 home record - is a 0.3 points per game deficit. This is because their three home wins were by 1, 2, and 3 points respectively. Their one home loss was by 7 points, thus skewing the home margin of victory average. And despite their winning record, the Broncos have been outscored 195-173 on the year. The Dolphins are about even, having scored 145 and given up 146 points in 2008.
Denver is coming off a bye week, which they needed after their 34-point drubbing at the hands of the Patriots. Their “hot” offense was turned off handily, and their horrid defense showed their true colors. Broncos defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has been under the gun to improve things on his end, which he said will come through simplification of their system.
Looking at the exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Ratings, we find Miami at +0.56 with an opponent rating of +1.0. Denver’s PR is -0.45, with an opponent PR of +0.09. Neither has been exemplary, nor have their opponents. The Broncos have lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 straight against the spread. Miami has covered 5 of the last 5.
The Broncos are trying to adjust, and they could face problems with the Dolphins solid rushing game.
Take Miami +3 over Denver.
Razor Sharp Sports
New York Jets vs Buffalo
Heading into this season, I don’t think anyone would even try to make an argument that anyone besides the New England Patriots would win the AFC East. Now here we are with all the teams in that division with 7 games and it truly is a dogfight for all 4 teams. The Patriots and the Bills are tied for the lead at 5-2, but the New York Jets are just a game back at 4-3 and even Miami is 3-4 and playing much better. So this week when the Jets head up-state to take on the Bills, the AFC East lead will be up for grabs. Let’s take a look at each of the teams in this crucial divisional match-up.
First you have the visiting Jets. Heading into the season, the Jets were a media darling to make the playoffs. They added a couple of key offensive linemen in Damien Woody and Alan Faneca and they had a favorable schedule. Oh yeah, they also added the All-Time leader in passing yards, touchdown, consecutive games played and pretty much any other meaningful QB record in Brett Favre. Favre has had his ups and downs this season. He had the game where he threw 6 touchdowns, but since has just 3 TD passes while throwing 7 interceptions. Maybe the Jets should take a look at the 2007 Green Bay Packers. They were much more effective running the ball first last season and then letting Favre throw. The Jets have 4 former 1st round draft picks on the offense line, still they rank 15th in rushing. Thomas Jones is the teams leading rusher, but is averaging just 76 yards per game. The defense is still the strength of this team. They rank 4th in the NFL in rush defense but are 20th in points allowed.
The home team here may be one of the biggest surprises so far in the NFL. Buffalo has gotten solid play out of young QB Trent Edwards, a strong running game with Marshawn Lynch and consistant defensive play. Edwards is currently ranked 8th in the NFL in QB rating at 92.9. He is completing 68% of his passes with 5 TDs and only 3 interceptions. Marshawn Lynch is 4th in the NFL in Rushing TDs with 6. He has also run for 450 yards. On defense, the team is ranked 11th with 20.4 points per game and 302.3 yards. After a 4-0 start, they have dropped 2 of their last 3 games.
So what do I expect here, well we are starting to get to the time of the season when the weather starts coming into play for the northern teams. Look for both of these teams to try to use their running games and solid defense to control the game. I expect a low scoring contest here.Take the NY Jets/Buffalo game UNDER the total of 42.
ROCKETMAN
Baltimore @ Cleveland
Play:3* Cleveland -1 1/2
Cleveland is 22-9 ATS last 3 years when playing on grass. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS last 3 years when playing in November. Cleveland is 11-2 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 10-3 SU and ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Ravens are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games. Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Browns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Browns are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Browns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC. Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 9. Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. Browns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North. Browns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win. Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. We'll play Cleveland for 3 units today!
#6 David Ragan vs #29 Kevin Harvick
Play On: 1* #29 Kevin Harvick -105
Kevin Harvick has 1 top 5 finish and 3 Top 10 finishes in his 10 races in Texas. Harvick has a decent average finish of 14.4 in Texas. David Ragan has no Top 5 finishes and no Top 10 finishes in his 3 races here in Texas. Ragan's average finish is a very poor 29.7 which is one of the worst on the circuit. Kevin Harvick's average finish over the past 10 races is 9.0. In 10 races, he has 0 wins and 7 top 10 finishes. We'll recommend a small play on Kevin Harvick to finish ahead of David Ragan today!
John Fina
Selection: Cleveland Browns -2
Reason: Put us down on the Cleveland Browns -2 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. Cleveland is the most likely candidate to win this game because they have a superior offense, have a defense that is far better than what is given credit for, and they are playing at home. This combined with the low spread makes a very appealing opportunity. While Baltimore has an exceptional defense, it doesn’t do very well on the road. In the past 12 road games, the Ravens are 3-9 ATS, and in their last 9 road games they where unsuccessful 7 times. The value of the Browns’ defense has gone largely unnoticed. They are ranked 7th in the NFL in scoring defense and Cleveland has recently been up against some very strong offenses such as the Redskins and the Giants. They have only allowed an average of 14 points in their last four games. The Ravens’ offense is pedestrian and rookie QB Joe Flacco lacks the required experience. Tight end Todd Heap and tailback Willis McGahee are overrated and way too slow. Heap hasn’t been able to score a single touchdown to date. Baltimore has difficulty with pass defense, and the Browns are good enough in the passing attack to take advantage of this. Cleveland will probably have tight end Kellen Winslow back and in the last 3 games, QB Derek Anderson hasn’t thrown an interception. We’ve seen Anderson’s confidence level increase a lot recently. This game marks the 3rd time the Ravens have traveled in the last 4 weeks. Cleveland will show a high level of motivation for this game as well, seeking vengeance after they were defeated by Baltimore 28-10 in week 3. That loss marked the first time in 6 matchups against the Ravens where they didn’t cover. In their last 10 games, Cleveland has managed to cover 9 of them. While the Browns’ season started off slowly they’ve really stepped it up at this point. Take the Cleveland Browns -2!
Drew Gordon
Houston +4' at MINNESOTA
Its time to start giving this Texans team the respect they deserve, winners of 3 straight games SU, and playing some of their beat football of the season of late. Sure, its easy to look good against the Bungles in last week's 35-6 rout, but overall this Houston team is much-improved, and has the weapons to make this a game against the Vikings.
We all know the Vikings are excellent at stopping the run, which is bad news for Steve Slaton, but good news for this high-powered Texans passing attack. They're led by one of this year's best QB/WR combo in Schaub to Johnson, and complemented by WR Walter and TE Daniels - both of which are rock-solid. Houston is averaging 30 ppg over their last 3 games, and albeit all 3 came at home, I've seen enough of this Texans team to believe they can keep it going at Minnesota this afternoon.
On the flip side, did you know the Texans have posted MUCH better defensive numbers than the Vikings over the past 3 weeks? Houston is allowing 18 ppg, as compared to 28 ppg being allowed by this Vikings stop-unit (incl. 235 yards thru the air)! I'm not saying the Texans D is better, but clearly Minnesota's defense is NOT playing well right now.
Finally, while I acknowledge the Vikings should be well-prepared for this game coming off a bye, fact is they're just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games AND 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against teams with a losing record. In the end, expect a close contest here, with the winner coming by no more than a field goal... Either way, we collect the cash with the underdog Texans Sunday afternoon!
Take Houston plus the points over Minnesota in this NFL match up.
2♦ HOUSTON
Green Bay +4 at TENNESSEE
Big spot for the Packers, coming off a bye and get to face the undefeated Titans off a short week this afternoon. Got to like Green Bay in this one for a variety of reasons, but let's start with motivation...
Seriously guys, what else do the Titans have to play for? After beating Indy on Monday night, they've got a stranglehild on the division, and with only a short week of practice, its very likely we'll see far less energy from this Titans team this Sunday. Packers meanwhile, have won 2 straight, and are in a dead heat with the resurgent Bears in the NFC North battle.
Its tough to ignore the Titans 7-0 record SUATS, but let's not get carried away. The Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games, and are averaging an impressive 32 ppg on the highway this season. Of course, they won't score that much against this vaunted Titans stop-unit, but they will score enough to cover in this contest.
Finally, much like the Colts on Monday night, the Packers are vulnerable against the run. But unlike the Colts, the Packers are relatively healthy on defense (the injury to Bob Sanders doomed the Colts run defense Monday) AND more importantly, are coming off a bye, with an extra week to prepare for a relatively one-dimensional Titans offense (Collins is a solid game manager, but not a big play guy). In the end, the Pack might not win, but they'll keep this game within the number.
Small play on Green Bay plus the points over Tennessee in this NFL match up.
1♦ GREEN BAY
Bobby Maxwell
Baltimore at CLEVELAND -1'
The Browns got their biggest win of the season lasdt week, upsetting Jacksonville 23-17 as a seven-point underdog and today they return home and will get the best of the Ravens in this AFC North division showdown.
Cleveland is now 4-0 ATS in its last four games and they've won three of those four to give them some hope in the convoluted AFC playoff picture. Derek Anderson is starting to get that look he had last year when he was racking up the numbers. Last week against the Jags he threw for 246 yards and a TD without throwing an INT.
The Browns are on a 5-1 ATS run in this rivalry but back in Week 3 of the season, Baltimore got a 28-10 home win as a one-point favorite. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two and the Browns are 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in Cleveland.
Cleveland is on ATS streaks that include 17-5 overall, 9-1 in front of the home fans, 14-3 against winning teams and 6-2 inside the division. Don't sell this team short. The Browns could still make noise in the playoff picture with that explosive offense. Play Cleveland today.
4♦ CLEVELAND
Sports Gambling Hotline
Houston +4' at MINNESOTA
The Vikings are coming off their bye week, and should definitely be well rested, but that won't translate to a Minnesota cover.
Minny is just 1-1 this season against the spread when laying points, and 11-23-1 overall against the line their last 35 games. Hardly awe-inspiring numbers.
Houston enters this one having won 3 in a row straight up, and the Texans have been putting some points on the board this season, as they have tallied 27 or more in each of their last 5 games.
Yes, the Texans defense is a little scketchy, but Houston's offense should more than make up for any defensive shortcomings the Texans have today. Matt Schaub has been able to generate points through the air, and Minnesota's weakness is pass defense. Schaub, and receiver Andre Johnson should be able to exploit the Vikes defense just enough to keep the Texans inside this roomy impost today at the Metrodome.
Play on Houston plus the points.
5♦ HOUSTON