Ben Burns
Game: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Under
This is the biggest total on the board and I feel that its a little on the high side. We know the Saints are capable of putting up pretty big numbers on offense. However, they're typically not quite as deadly on the road and they've averaged only 15.5 points in their two divisional games. This week, they'll face an Atlanta defense which is coming off a shutout in its last game and which is allowing an average of just 15.7 points its last three outings. the Falcons are currently listed as very slight favorites (although this may change by gametime) which is worth noting as we find the 'under' at 10-2-1 the last 13 times that the Falcons were laying points. Three of the last four series meetings fell below the total and none of them produced more than 48 combined points. Consider the UNDER
Cajun Sports
Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Over 43.5
The Seattle Seahawks head east for Sunday’s match up with the Miami Dolphins with the game set to kick off at 1:00 PM Eastern Time. This is important in that no team from the Pacific Time Zone has won a game in the Eastern Time Zone this season.
This Seahawks team has allowed 32.8 points per game in their last 6 on the highway. They have been outscored 98 to 26 on the road. This game as we mentioned has an early kick and Seattle which lost to Buffalo and the New York Giants by a combined margin of 78 to 16 in this situation.
The Dolphins are getting solid play out of quarterback Chad Pennington, who has completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,991 yards and seven touchdowns with four interceptions. Also Ted Ginn Jr. has emerged as a dangerous deep threat, giving fellow wide receiver Greg Camarillo and tight end Anthony Fasano room to find holes in the middle of the defense.
Camarillo, a walk-on receiver in college and an undrafted NFL free agent, has been the most surprising player for the Dolphins. He had 11 catches against the Broncos, and leads the team with 43 receptions for 483 yards.
Miami HC Tony Sparano began his first year as a head coach in a tough situation, taking over a Miami team that went 1-15 last year. Sparano, though, has helped put together a team that has been surprisingly competitive, beating first-place clubs in each of its last two games.
We expect another solid effort out of the Dolphins today and this series has shown to be an “Over” no matter who was playing QB for either team. Seattle should be able to put enough points on the board to help send this contest well over the posted total.
Data base research has uncovered significant technical support for our selection on the “Over” in today’s contest. The Seahawks are 13-2 Over as a dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent. The Seahawks are 9-0 Over as a 7+ dog the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Seahawks are 10-0 Over as a dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a divisional opponent. The Seahawks are 11-3-1 Over as a 7+ dog after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Dolphins are 3-0 Over as a favorite. The Dolphins are 3-0 Over when installed as a home favorite. The Dolphins are 3-0 Over after two ATS wins. The Dolphins are 9-2 Over their last 11 after playing on the road.
When AFC teams are favored by 6.5 or more points versus NFC teams the games have gone Over the posted total at a rate of 22-8-1 Over. If our NFC opponent enters this contest off a SU loss in their last game the record improves to 12-3-1 Over and finally if the total for the current game is more than forty-two points this system is perfect posting a 7-0 Over record the last seven times its qualified a game.
NFL Teams are 20-9 Over as a road dog off a SU and ATS loss (Seattle) last week versus a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week (Miami). NFL Teams are 14-4 Over on the road when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. NFL Teams are 20-6 Over as a road dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak.
NFL Teams are 22-5 Over as a home favorite when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. NFL Teams 20-9 Over as a home favorite off a SU and ATS win last week versus a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. NFL Teams are 24-7-2 Over as a favorite the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. NFL Teams are 40-25-1 Over the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road.
With strong situational and technical support as well as series history in our favor we will make the “over” in today’s match up between the Seahawks and Dolphins our 2* NFL FREE Total Game of the Week for Week 10 of the NFL Season!
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Seattle / Miami Over 43
Platinum Plays
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittburgh Steelers
Both the Colts and Steelers have been perennial contestants in the NFL postseason playoffs and each with a recent Super Bowl victory (Steelers ‘05, Colts ‘06). The (6-2) Steelers currently lead the AFC North by a game over the Baltimore Ravens and should be able to qualify for the postseason with little difficulty. However, how successful the Steelers are in the postseason will depend on the results of QB Ben Roethlisberger MRI of his injured right shoulder. He reinjured the shoulder in Monday night’s win over the Washington Redskins (23-6) where backup QB Byron Leftwich came in a delivered a couple of second half touchdown drives to seal the victory.
The Colts (4-4) have not looked or played very well this season although, they are coming off a Sunday night victory (19-16) over their longtime AFC rivals, the New England Patriots. The Colts are hoping they’ve turned the corner with the return of hard-hitting safety, Bob Sanders, to bolster a sagging defense. A return to full health by RB Joseph Addai will also help but, the inconsistent play by the Colts offensive line doesn’t mean the return of Addai will have much of an impact.
There are those who feel the Steelers are the best team in the AFC. They may very well be the best team in the AFC which only means the overall caliber of play of the AFC has dropped dramatically. Head coach Mike Tomlin had kept the ship intact but, they are bailing more and more water as more of the Steeler’s weaknesses are exposed. The offensive line (minus free agent departee Alan Faneca) has had a difficult time protecting “Big Ben” and he’s played banged up all season. If not for defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau and his zone blitz which continually confuses the opponents, I’m not sure the Steelers would be on top of the AFC North. The return of RB Willie Parker will allow Mewelde Moore to return to his 3rd down speciality role and take the pressure off either Roethlisberg or Leftwich to carry the offensive load. The demise of the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengal in the AFC North has added to the illusion of strength of this year’s Steelers.
Injuries are not the only problem Tony Dungy’s Colts are facing. They are suffering from success in a salary cap sport. They’ver been forced to pay big money to retain a certain core of players, mostly offensive weapons like Peyton Manning, WR’s Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne while allowing their offensive line and defensive depth to deteriorate. The stars get older and less productive and the lack of depth magnifies any injury that takes out a starter in other areas of the team. This could be the beginning of the overall demise of the Colts however, due to the weakend status of the AFC and key injuries on other AFC teams, the Colts could very well make the playoffs though have no chance of beating out the Tennessee Titans for the AFC South crown.
The Steelers should run Willie Parker into the ground and then run Mewelde Moore every chance they get. If Roethlisberger is able to go or if Leftwich must start, the game plan shouldn’t change. Indianapolis has had trouble getting their defense off the field and even Bob Sanders can’t stop the Steelers the entire game. Indianapolis has been inconsistent all year and I expect time is just catching up with this team. No official line has been posted for this game pending the results of Big Ben’s shoulder diagnosis although and outlaw line of Pittsburgh -3 with a total of 39. Be it Big Ben or Byron, take the hard hat crew, lay the field goal and hope their long snapper doesn’t get hurt.
#1 Sports
Buffalo @ New England
Buffalo (5-3) dropped a 17-26 home loss at Ralph Wilson Stadium last week to the Jets, managing just 30 yards rushing on 17 attempts and committing 3 turnovers – including an interception returned for a score and another inside their own 10 yard line. First place is a still a nice place to be but with New York and New England also at 5-3 and Miami just a game back at 4-4, the Bills’ tie-breaking 0-2 divisional mark makes this week critical. Consistent production on offense has been an issue for Coach Dick Jauron’s crew this season and you need to look no further than the offensive line for the reason. The NFL loves big guys but LT Peters, LG Derrick Dockery, C Melvin Fowler, RG Brad Butler (missed last pair but should go this week), and RT Langston Walker are basically overfed (332 pounds per man) under-performers. All ranging between 3 and 7 season of NFL experience, this group should be in it’s prime but 93.8 rush yards per game at just 3.6 yards per rush – despite quality 2nd year backs Marshawn Lynch (132 for 466 and 6 TD, 27 for 19 receiving) and Fred Jackson (56 for 223 and TD rush, 21 for 179 receiving) – isn’t getting the job done and 23 sacks allowed hasn’t done any favors for 6’4” 231 QB Trent Edwards (151 of 22 for 1725 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT). Finding the Bills’ small wide receivers 5’10” 197 Lee Evans (35 for 678 and 3 TD), 5’9” 171 Roscoe Parrish (13 for 133 and TD), and 5’10” 210 Josh Reed (26 for 288, missed last week with ankle) isn’t easy over this behemoth line and nearly impossible while running for your life. TE Robert Royal (24 for 251 and TD) has been a strong producer underneath as have been backs Lynch and Jackson but this rushing game must produce to get more done downfield. 18 turnovers bring Buffalo into this week with a –5 margin.
The Bills’ defense has been solid with 21.1 points on 301.6 yards allowed per game but not stellar as was possible and injuries in the defensive backfield have been a big part of the picture. FS Ko Simpson (30 T) has missed time and 3rd-year CB Ashton Youbouty (20, S) has missed the last 3 contests. In their places, safeties Bryan Scott (21 T, S) and especially Donte Whitner (37 T, S) have demonstrated their versatility playing both safety positions as well as slot corner in the nickel. This week, this unit will be without Whitner (separated shoulder versus Jets) moving Scott into the strong safety slot with rookie defensive backs 5’10” 184 Leodis McKelvin and 5’9” 175 Reggie Corner getting tested in the nickel and dime slots. That being said, 5th-year RCB Jabari Greer (34 T, INT) has brought then rare exciting defensive play for Buffalo with 33 and 42 yard interception return touchdowns opposite of LCB Terrence McGee (26 T, 2 I). 6’6” 310 LDT Marcus Stroud and 6’1” 306 RDT Kyle Williams (24 T, S) make rushing up the middle a tough task (98.9 yards allowed per game at 3.8 yards per carry) but little heat has come from the ends with Chris Kelsey and Aaron Schobel (misses last week with foot) managing a single sack each. If Schobel can’t go it will be 6’7” 264 Ryan Denney (17 T, S) on the right side. Linebackers have long been a strength for this franchise and they again field a solid trio but only OLB Kawika Mitchell (40 T, 2 S, I, 2 FR) has been able to produce game-changing plays. OLB Keith Ellison (28 T) is just a guy and 6’1” 238 MLB Paul Posluszny (57 T) is a powerful tackler developing into a key team leader. Special teams coach Bobby April just continues to crank out top groups year after year. Again this season, his boys hold advantages in punt returns (2.8 yards) and kick returns (1.1 yards) while banking a 63-yard punt return TD by Roscoe Parish versus none for the opposition.
New England (5-3) out-rushed the Colts 140-47, completed 25 for 37 passes, and came back from deficits twice last week but fell 15-18 at Indianapolis Sunday night on a 52-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal. Injuries have been the defining factor for the Patriots this season with 10 players already on injured reserve and key players like RT Nick Kaczur, RB Sammie Morris (69 for 307 yards and 4 TD, 12 for 90 receiving), RB LaMont Jordan (24 for 106), missing last week.6’7” 306 Mark LeVoir has been spotty taking over for Kaczur on a line that has been punishing on the ground with 131.6 yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry but simply awful in pass protection with 29 sacks in about 250 drop backs. The versatile RB Kevin Faulk (46 for 272 and 2 TD rushing, 25 for 205 and TD receiving) and 5’11” 215 undrafted rookie RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (37 for 138 and 3 TD) – who has scores in each of the last 3 contests – have each stepped in to produce well and it looks like the powerful 5’10” 230 Jordan is ready enough to go this week to get the start alongside FB Heath Evans which should help the pass protection. 6’4” 230 4th-year QB Matt Cassel (156 of 223 for 1566 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT) has played well enough to win but, like most new starters, tends to hold the ball a little. WR Wes Welker (56 for 503 and TD) is Cassel’s main underneath target with WR Randy Moss (38 for 536 and 4 TD) still dangerous downfield when given the time while injuries have severely limited the production of TE Ben Watson (10 for 84) and given a few touches to 6’3” 248 3rd-year TE David Thomas (9 for 93). By the numbers, New England averages 21.0 points on 322.9 yards per game. Maybe not exactly electrifying but for a franchise that holds the rock for 32:24 minutes per game, has been penalized just 24 times in 8 games, and leads the NFL in opponent starting field position it just might be enough.
Age has been a concern for the Patriots defense the last couple of years and at least subtle changes have been underway. The trio of Warren (31 T, S), Wilfork (29 T), and Seymour (26 T, 4 S) remains the same, dominating front wall of Bill Belichick’s (110-43 in 9th season with NE) 3-4 alignment but 6’1” 242 rookie ILB Jerod Mayo (59 T) has been a key addition alongside the 12th-year Mike Vrabel (27 T, 2 S), 13th-year Tedi Bruschi (45 T), and 9th-year Adalius Thomas (31 T, 5 S) in the second rank. To this point the former Tennessee Volunteer has been a dynamite tackler in a limited role but has been getting quicker and more effective in his decision making ability, opening the possibility for big plays and a wider role in his future. The loss of 15th-year veteran SS Rodney Harrison (45 T, I, FR) was unquestionably huge but it does open the door for 5’11” 200 2nd-year SS Brandon Meriweather (32 T) and he has seized the opportunity with 3 of the squads 8 interceptions on the season. Right cornerback Lewis Sanders (9 T) has been battling a hamstring injury and you may see more of NB Deltha O’Neal (19 T, 2 I) in the base defense while LCB Ellis Hobbs is having another exceptional season on special teams (29.3 yards per) in addition to fine play on defense (23 T, I, S) and FS James Sanders (33 T, I) can bring some big licks. By the numbers, New England allows 18.8 points on 317.6 yards per game while managing a less-than-eye-popping 14 sacks, 8 interceptions, and 4 fumble recoveries. For Patriot fans that have cheered their team on to 5 consecutive AFC East titles, concern abounds, but never count out Belichick. To beat his teams you have to take it from them and they won’t give you many gifts.
SELECTION: The Pats have won 14 of their last 15 against the Bills – including 9 straight – and have won 15 of their last 16 coming off a loss with an overall 49-10 mark at Gillette Stadium where they have allowed only 15.51 points per game over that 59 game stretch. Buffalo has managed more than a single touchdown in just 3 of their last 8 tilts in this series and we just aren’t fired up about their offensive line’s chances this week. Take New England –4.
Masterbets
Bet on the DOLPHINS to cover the spread
Everyone now knows that the Seahawks are terrible when they have to travel to the East Coast and play a 1 pm game, which is 10 am for them and clearly too early for their best game. In addition this year's Seattle team has no "best game", and is generally pretty dire. Still, this is a lot of points for a Miami team to lay and so only a small wager is advised.Our data suggests that -9 points is the right spread and at the time of writing the Dolphins are -8.5 points, so there is a little value getting on board with the DOLPHINS to cover.
Wunderdog
Buffalo at New England
Pick: Buffalo +4
Funny how things change week-to-week in the NFL. After their win against the Chargers three weeks ago, their was talk about the Bills being Superbowl material at 5-1. But after two tough losses, fans are wondering if they will make the playoffs. The Bills haven't changed - just the public image of them has. They are a better football team than the smoke and mirrors 5-3 Patriots. The Bills are better on both sides of the ball, and they have a better QB than the Patriots. Excuse my skeptism, but Patriots' home wins against Denver, Kansas City and St. Louis don't impress me. The Pats blew out everyone last year. But this season, including games at home against the patsies mentioned above, New England has yet to win a game by double-digits! The other side of that coin is, the Pats have been blown out themselves twice. So the margin for error with this team is very very slim, and their winning record very precarious. This Sunday they face a team that is better on both sides of the ball, and I think the wrong team is favored. Buffalo is in dire need of a win after dropping two straight. They are motivated to win for that reason, and because of New England's historic dominance. Coming off a home loss to a division rival, Dick Jauron is 12-2 ATS. He's also 22-7 ATS in November games. Take the Bills.
Hondo
Giants over Eagles: Looks as if Larry Linemaker might have snorted one too many. The Eagles should be the beagles here, even though Tommy Tight Butt reverted to pre-Super Bowl championship form and made the players work on Victory Monday. Nevertheless, take this 'dog for a walk to the bank.
Rams over JetsNew York Jets : Not to be picky, but with Favre's tendency to find the opposition with his passes, nine could be a touch too much.
Lions over Jaguars: Dan The Maine Man phoned to assert that the Lions' years and years of futility have made them the anti-Obamas, which is reflected in their slogan: No We Can't!
Bears over Titans: In the spirit of these magnanimous, spread-the-wealth times, Hondo's calling on his BG brethren and all members of the Women's Division to donate a victory to Sully, who desperately wants to move out of his shabby basement crib but is a few Ws short. Won't you please help?
Bills over Patriots: Belichick was caught panicking last week when he called timeout on fourth and short just before Cassel sneaked his way to a red-zone first down. Then the wishy-washy genius changed his mind and kicked a FG and ended up losing by three. That stuff wouldn't be happening if Gisele Bundchen was still hanging around the team.
Falcons over Saints: Although Obama has been a fixture in the public eye for the last two years, there's still plenty to learn about the President-elect. For example, you probably didn't know that Barack's favorite Marx Brother isn't Groucho or Harpo, it's Karl.
Seahawks over Dolphins: Washington voted yes on Initiative 1000, which allows medically assisted suicide for terminally ill patients, as well as Seahag, Mariner and Sonic fans. Apparently the legalized medical marijuana isn't doing the trick for the state's long-suffering sports fans.
Vikings over Packers: That was an amazing celebration that broke out in the Rockefeller Center area Tuesday night when Obama won - a swarm of deliriously happy people running and dancing in the streets, yelling and waving signs that read "We Love You Barack" and "The Messiah." You have to admit, those anchors and reporters from NBC/MSNBC really know how to party.
Panthers over Raiders: Sources say Hillary, showing that plucky can-do spirit that made her hang on in the 'Crat primary long after the toe tag had been looped around her candidacy, already has a few junior pantsuits on the ground in Iowa getting ready for the 2016 caucus.
Chiefs over Chargers: BarkingMut emails to report that Herman Edwards voted for the party of "Peyronie" Bill Clinton out of loyalty to his assistant head coach, Dick Curl.
Steelers over Colts: Ex-Jet malcontent Keyshawn Johnson is hosting a show on A&E about interior design. It's tentatively titled: "Just Gimme The Damn Drapes."
Ravens over Texans: One of the side benefits of Barack's victory - in addition to all that hope that's sweeping the nation - is the guarantee of at least four years of entertaining boneheaded blathering from Biden.
Cardinals over 49ers: New head coach Mike Singletary dropped trou during halftime of the Niners' loss to the Seahags as some sort of motivational tool. Must be a San Francisco thing.
THURS NIGHT: Browns.
BEST BETS: Giants, Falcons, Panthers.
Vegas Vic
EAGLES (-3) over Giants
It's 7-1 coming to town against 5-3, and 5-3 can't afford to lose and fall three games back in the NFC East. Both teams are playing well, with Eagles winning three in a row, covering three, and outscoring the opposition, 93-47. The New Yorkers have won three in a row as well, covered all three, but Eli Manning has been in a funk. After compiling a superb 102.2 passer rating in the first four games, Eli has fallen way, way off, dropping down to 78.5 the last four. If the passing game is weak, the Giants will rely on their league-leading rushing attack (5.2 yards per carry), which actually plays right into the Birds' strength. The D has allowed only two teams to rush for more than 90 yards. And with Donovan McNabb putting up huge numbers Sunday (28 of 43 for 349 yards), this looks like a W for the hometown heroes. The only reason this game did not attain best-bet status is New York's ridiculous 13-2 road record over the last year-and-a-half.
Panthers (-9) over RAIDERS
We have been a big Al Davis fan for many years, but after watching some of his antics, and some of his bizarre decisions over the past five seasons, it might be time for Mr. Combover to hand the pigskin off to someone else. Since 2003, Oakland has been a disaster, going 4-12, 5-11, 4-12, 2-14, 4-12, and is sitting at 2-6 here in 2008. Taking weirdness to a new level, Davis and the Raiders decided to waive cornerback DeAngelo Hall. The same DeAngelo Hall they signed to a monster, $70 million contract in the offseason. Here's what teammate Gibril Wilson said: "I've never been in a situation where you cut one of your best players. It's almost like we're throwing in the towel." Wow. Exactly what does throwing in the towel mean? It means losing four of your last five games and getting outscored, 128-47. And it means Best Bet.
Saints (+1) over FALCONS
New Orleans is working on a 4-0 run against Atlanta, and if you're wondering why, it's Drew Brees. In the four games against the Falcons, Brees hit on 91 of 133 for 1,087 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. That should not surprise, you since the Breezy one currently leads the NFL with 2,563 air yards, and the offense tops the charts with 403 total yards per game. Brees vs. rookie Matt Ryan? No contest.
LIONS (+7) over Jaguars
Two teams coming into the season with high expectations, and both are way off target. No one really expected Detroit to contend, but no one expected the Lions to be 0-8, either. For Jacksonville, it's even more stunning. The Jaguars rocked a 12-6 record last season, and got to the second round of the playoffs. Now the Jags are struggling at 3-5, have covered only two of eight, and will have trouble winning by more than a TD in Motown.
Seahawks (+9) over DOLPHINS
As he always does, Bill Parcells has brought the culture of winning to another NFL city. Miami is 4-4, which doesn't sound like such a big deal, but after 1-15, it's humongous. The only problem is, the Fish are favored by nine points. Seriously? If you scroll back over the Dolphins' work as a favorite the last 4 years-and-change, you'll find they have covered only four of the last 19. That's 21 percent, so you gotta give Seattle a little love.
BEARS (+3) over Titans
Tennessee ain't - repeat ain't - gonna post a 16-0 number. Guaranteed! And if you have a problem with that, e-mail me at the paper and suggest a wager. I'm ready to take on all squares.
Chiefs (+15) over CHARGERS
Not a prayer for Kansas City to wind up with a W, but the Chiefs have been competitive the last 2 weeks, losing to the Jets by four (28-24) and the Bucs by three in overtime (30-27). Plus, this bundle is worth a little tumble.
Bills (+4) over PATRIOTS
Since New England has covered only one of the last eight at home, we're riding the Buffs.
Rams (+9) over JETS
New York has covered 33 percent of its games at the Meadowlands since the start of 2007, so we're buying the nine.
Packers (+2) over VIKINGS
With three covers in the last 11 games, Minny ain't your typical moneymaker.
Colts (+3) over STEELERS
Gotta wait till Pittsburgh confirms Big Ben's status. Till then, don't bite.
TEXANS (+1) over Ravens
Houston stinks on the road, but at home, it's 9-3 the last year-and-a-half.
49ers (+9) over CARDINALS
Not really excited about this game; neither is ESPN, so feel free to put it in the no-fly zone.
Scott Ferrall
MIAMI -8 to Seattle--Dolphins will roll because the Seahawks can't stop anybody
CAROLINA -8.5 to Oakland--Raiders are a total mess and can't do anything right these days
TENNESSEE -3 to Chicago--The Bears defense is 17th in the league and won't be able to stop the Titans running attack of Johnson and White. Kerry Collins gets it done. Orton, if he plays, will be limited with the bad ankle
Wild Bill
Bears +3 (5 units)
Atlanta -1 (5 units)
Over 44 1/2 Rams-Jets (5 units)
Packers +2 1/2 (5 units)
Chiefs +14 1/2 (5 units)
Ravens +1 1/2 (5 units)
Over 46 49'ers-Arizona (5 units)
Arizona -9 1/2 (5 units)
Alex Smart
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears Under 38.0
The Tennessee Titans bring their perfect 8-0 record into Chicago to face the Bears this Sunday . Two teams with similar approaches promise to make this a hard core , low scoring physical affair. This what I am betting will happen....... The Tennessee Titans will continue to use a very conservative approach to each game, by consistently using the run to control the clock and move the chains. Last week the Titans registered 178 rushing yards , which was the fourth time they had 150-plus rushing yards this season. With that said I predict that the Bears know what is headed their way, and will be fully prepared to stop the run. I also expect a smash mouth aggressive effort from the Bears physical run D, as they stack the box and force Titans QB Kerry Collins to beat them with his arm. Chicago ranks among the league leaders against ground attacks allowing an average of just 81.8 YPG.Meanwhile, the Bears Kyle Orton is expected this miss this game because of injury,and will be replaced with the inconsistent Rex Grossman. This negative situation will also have the Bears moving the ball down field, with a conservative mind set. Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz in his usual aggressive manner will try to make life difficult for Grossman with what has become a brutal brand of knock out football . It must be noted that the Titans have only allowed opposing offenses, an average of 12.9 PPG this season,
There has been a fairly low Total attached to this tilt, but rightly so.
Play Under
LT Profits
Chicago Bears +3
The Tennessee Titans almost suffered their first loss of the season when they were taken to overtime at home by the Green Bay Packers last week, but we do not expect them to be as fortunate in this tough road battle with the Chicago Bears.
The buzz around the Bears this week is that Rex Grossman is being thrust back into the starting role after the injury to Kyle Orton last week, and many so-call experts are expecting Grossman to turn the ball over often vs. the tenacious Tennessee defense.
While we concur that the Titans have the best defensive line in the AFC, do not forget that Grossman actually got injured last season and he was not performing poorly at the time of his injury. In fact, he threw just one interception in four starts.
Contrary to popular belief, Grossman is capable of managing a game when the coaching staff drills the game plan into his head, and he did have some nice games two seasons ago, to go with some awful ones. As long as he keeps turnovers to a minimum, the Bears will have a legitimate shot at the upset at home.
Now the Titans may be 8-0, but they rely heavily on their running game, as that sets things up for the immobile Kerry Collins to have some success on play action. Only three times this season has Tennessee struggled on the ground, and in those games, they were taken to overtime last week, they beat the Baltimore Ravens by three and they only beat the Minnesota Vikings because of questionable play-calling and Gus Frerotte imploding.
Well, the Bears are only allowing 81.8 rushing yards per game on a scant 3.5 yards per carry, so look for them to contain the run and put pressure on Collins. The end results should be a statement Bears victory in front of their happy home fans.
Pick: Bears +3
Matt Fargo
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans +1
I was on the Texans for a big play over the Ravens in Week Two before the game was postponed due to the hurricane. Even though this game is being played eight weeks later, a lot of the same situations are in place even though it is further down the road. Coincidentally, Baltimore is coming off a road win over a divisional rival, similar to the spot it was in Week Two when it defeated Cincinnati. This was supposed to be Baltimore’s bye week but it is now a second of three straight road games.
Also similar to Week Two, the Texans were coming off a road loss against a similar team with a stout defense. Then it was the Steelers, this time it was the Vikings. Houston had chances to win that game but it gave up too many big plays, something this week’s opponent is not capable of. The Texans are 3-5 but believe it or not, a win here puts then just a game out of the final Wild Card spot as they, along with Baltimore, the loser of the Bills/Pats game and possibly the Colts at a 4-5 tie.
We see that this line opened at -2.5 for Houston and now it is the underdog. The absence of quarterback Matt Schaub is the reason for this big line swing but I think it is unjustified. Schaub is a solid quarterback but Sage Rosenfels is a very capable backup as he showed last week when he wax forced into action, throwing for 224 yards on 21-29 passing. His quarterback rating is actually better than Schaub’s although he does not come close to the same amount of snaps taken.
The Ravens offense as mentioned is not an offense that can make big plays and that is what has hurt the Texas on defense this season. Take away some big plays and losses against the Colts, Jaguars and Vikings might never have happened. Houston is a very respectable 17th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 328.9 ypg. It is 18th against the run 13th against the pass so this is not a horrible unit at all. It is the big plays that have them giving up 26.6 ppg, 27th in the league. Baltimore is an average 19th in total offense.
That win by Baltimore put it in a similar spot it would have been in Week Two but it also puts it into a solid situation favoring the Texans. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a double digit road win, in the second half of the season. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +6.4 ppg. Houston has covered 11 of its last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record so it has been up to the challenge and will do so again. 3* Houston Texans
Nelly
Detroit + over Jacksonville
The Lions finally avoiding digging a big hole to start a game but the end result was a familiar loss. Detroit is 0-8 on the year but the Lions have covered in three of the last four, with the one miss by just a single point. Jacksonville has lost in consecutive weeks to losing teams and at 3-5 the Jaguars are just that, a losing team, despite lofty preseason expectations. This is the second week in a row on the road facing long travel north and no game for the Jaguars this season has been decided by more than seven points. Laying points on the road is risky here and Detroit is in much better position with QB Culpepper being a wild card in this match-up. The Lions have solid passing threats and should again play a competitive game.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: New Orleans
The Saints get back into the flow following their upset win over the Chargers in London two weeks ago when they travel to the Georgia Dome to face the Falcons. Meanwhile, Atlanta returns home nice and fat off last week's 24-0 shutout win over the Raider at Oakland. Given the fact that the Falcons are 1-10 ATS off a double-digit ATS win when facing a .500 or greater opponent, we'll look to New Orleans and its top-ranked offense to improve to 7-2 ATS in this series and 5-1 ATS in this field here today.