Dave Cokin
Bills @ 216 Patriots
Play: Patriots -3'
The Bills were the talk of the NFL just a couple of weeks ago and were being prominently mentioned as one of the prime contenders for something big this season. Two weeks and two losses later, Buffalo is in some trouble. It gets no easier for the Bills today, as they're venturing into Foxboro with the Patriots off a tough loss. New England is really a pretty average team on paper at this point with all the injuries, but Belichick and company keep finding ways to win and they're likely to be at their best in this pivotal divisional hookup. The difference here may be just knowing how to win the big games and that's where New England has a big edge over the Bills. Thus, my play here is the Patriots minus the small number.
Jimmy The Moose
Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
Both team's come into this one struggling and with question marks between the pipes. The Oilers are getting weak goaltending and that's hurting them. Edmonton has lost 7 of their last 9 overall. The Oilers are 2-6 in their last 8 road games. Big edge for them in this one as the Devils played and lost last night. The Devils have to get through 3-4 months without their goalie Martin Brodeur and that won't be easy. New Jersey has lost 5 of their last 7. The Devils may go with their 3rd string goalie in this one giving the Oilers the big edge. Play on the high-flying Edmonton Oilers.
Ted Sevransky
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Carolina Panthers -9.5
Here are the quotes DeAngelo Hall’s former teammates in Oakland, describing the situation this week now that Hall has been cut just eight games after signing a huge multi-year contract to play for the Raiders long term. Safety Gibril Wilson: “I’ve never been in a situation where you cut one of the best players. That’s strange to me. It’s almost like we’re throwing in the towel.”
Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha: “I’m obviously disappointed. I don’t agree with what happened. I don’t agree with what’s going on. But I am just a player so I can’t speak on it. I don’t make the decisions. All I can do is play but I don’t agree with what happened at all….. Like I said, I’m not allowed to speak on it because we’re just supposed to shut up and play. But you ask me if I agree with it? I don’t agree with it.”
The Raiders have played four games since firing head coach Lane Kiffin and replacing him with Tom Cable. They have been absolutely dominated in three of those contests, suffering non-competitive losses to the Saints, Ravens and Falcons. Last week, right here in Oakland against Atlanta, the Raiders were outgained in the first half 302 yards to -3. They went ‘three-and-out’ on seven of their first eight possessions, fumbling away the football on the eighth possession.
The Raiders are not a confident team. They are not a well coached team. And they are most assuredly not a team that has developed any sort of positive chemistry in recent weeks. They’ve lost three of their four home games by double digit margins, enjoying very little homefield edge. No, we’re not getting any bargains betting against Oakland these days – the betting marketplace certainly recognizes their numerous issues – but it’s certainly easier to bet against them in this deflated price range at home, considering their non-existent home field edge.
Carolina is better than all three of the teams that have destroyed Oakland over the last month. Carolina is rested and ready, coming off a bye. The Panthers have enjoyed tremendous success following their bye week under John Fox, winning by at least two touchdowns three times in four years prior to last season. But last year, Carolina went into their bye with a 4-2 record, then proceeded to lose five straight, killing their season, starting with a 24 point road loss at Indy immediately following the break. That’s the type of lesson John Fox won’t need to reinforce too much – Carolina knows full well that they have a chance for a special season, and this game requires full focus. 2* Free Play: Take the Panthers.
The Miller Group
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
PICK: New England Patriots -3.5
We're having a tough time shaking the notion that the Bills are in a downward spiral, losers of two straight divisional games. Are the Patriots going to be forgiving on Sunday afternoon? Not a chance. It's a dogfight in the AFC East, and we like the Patriots to prevail in this key matchup.
Buffalo isn't getting near the consistency on offense we need to see to back a team in this pointspread range on the road. They've scored just 33 points over their last two games and have been held to 17 or less in three of their last four overall.
The same can't be said for the Patriots, as prior to last Sunday's no-show in Indianapolis, they had scored 64 points in a two-game span. It appears that Matt Cassel is getting more comfortable running the offense and rookie RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis has given them some life out of the backfield in the absence of Laurence Maroney.
The Patriots have won nine straight meetings in this series, and it's going to take quite an effort for the Bills to overcome their nemesis on Sunday. These teams own identical 5-3 records, but it's the Patriots that we have more confidence in right now. Buffalo has yet to win against an AFC East opponent this season, and that holds true on Sunday. Take New England (4*).
John Fisher
Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Miami Dolphins -9.5
STATS: TO margin +9 Miami// -4 Seattle Red Zone Offense: Miami #6 in NFL with 15 TDS on 25 possesions. Seattle just 17 times in Zone with only 8 TD's 3rd down efficiency defense Miami 36% to Seattle 43% Time of poss. avg.: Miami 32 Seattle 25 Look for the Miami to be ball hogs in this contest: Dolphins 30 Seahawks 17 2 STAR
Tony Mathews
St. Louis Rams vs. New York Jets
Selection: St. Louis Rams +9
Last week St. Louis was pounded by Arizona but this was an exception for the Rams rather than the rule considering that they have been playing pretty well under interim coach Jim Haslett. Haslett is hoping to secure the job and the team seems to support it. Their improvement makes last week’s debacle a moot point.
Despite looking like they were doing everything they could to lose, the New York Jets walked away with a huge victory over the Bills last week. This week’s game is sandwiched between last week’s big divisional game and another divisional game following this one ,which makes this game a tough spot for New York. Despite winning 4 of their last 5 contests, the Jets have not dominated in any of those games and they have only been able to outgain the competition by an average of 31 yards per game. This season we have seen the Jets underplay a lot and there is no reason for this game to be any different.
New York has been very unpredictable this season which is mostly due to the inconsistencies of QB Bret Favre. Favre’s passer rating is 87.8 but that has fallen since the victory over Arizona, mostly because of several interceptions; he’s thrown 7 over his last 4 games. This puts him at a total of twelve interceptions for the season which is the record in the league. While St. Louis is not known for efficiency in passing defense, it doesn’t look like this opponent is going to require it.
St. Louis will probably be missing Steven Jackson who is dealing with a quad injury. This is not good for the Rams offense but since the Jets are ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing defense, Jackson probably couldn’t run anyway. The Ram offense will depend on Marc Bulger. It’s true that he played terribly last week against Arizona, but that was probably an off game for him considering that he has been excellent in every other game. Plus, Bulger has excellent weapons in his receivers so the Rams should be fine against the Jets 24th ranked pass defense .
St. Louis Rams +9!
Elite Sports Info
Kansas City at San Diego
Kansas City +14.5
Kansas City has shown some spunk lately, losing two heartbreakers against probable playoff teams the last two weeks. They led both games very late, but their youth prevailed, as they simply do not know how to finish teams off. Sure they were aided by a combined 7-1 turnover margin in those two upset wins, but that’s the name of the game in the NFL. Defensive Coordinator Gunther Cunningham’s defenses have always forced turnovers and his front 7 is very underrated and capable of causing havoc. Tyler Thigpen is improving with every game under center, and has not thrown an interception in his last 82 pass attempts. Now even the weak AFC West is not bad enough for them to pull the miracle and make up 3 games during the second half of the season, but they are certainly playing some good football right now, and doing things that cover pointspreads.
San Diego’s bye week along with their revenge motive for an embarrassing home loss to a Chief team that won only 4 games last season has kept this line from adjusting to the Chiefs’ improvements. It also helps our cause that they “need” this one, as they are sitting at 3-5 and still looking up at Denver in the division. Well revenge is extremely overrated in NFL handicapping, and “needing” and “doing” are two different things in this league. The fact of the matter is that San Diego cannot stop anyone this season. They fired DC Ted Cotrell after the loss to New Orleans in London, so I’m sure the stop unit will come out a bit motivated here on their strong home field, but they will have to prove it to me. They really were not a lockdown defense last season either at 320 yards per game, they just took the ball away from opposition as Shawne Merriman harrased opposing quarterbacks into throwing 30 interceptions. This year the Chargers are allowing an ugly 372 ypg, and the pass defense has been abysmal at 7.0 yards per pass. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 68% of their passes for a 95% efficiency rating. The run defense has been only marginally better at 4.0 ypr. Soft defenses always make a great fade when laying big points, and San Diego certainly fits the bill.
This line would have been understandable at the beginning of the season, but we have seen enough of San Diego to make an adjustment. The linemaker refuses to do so, so we’ll gladly take the big number. Double-digit favorites are an ugly 3-13 ATS in the NFL this season, and we’ll look for another to bite the dust here. San Diego by only 7
SPORTS ADVISORS
Jacksonville (3-5, 2-6 ATS) at Detroit (0-8, 3-5 ATS)
Two teams desperate for a victory get together at Ford Field when the Lions host the Jaguars in a non-conference contest.
Detroit gave it a good go in Chicago last week before losing 27-23, but the Lions easily covered as a heavy 12½-point underdog, moving to 3-1 ATS in their last four starts. Detroit didn’t run the ball well at all (26 attempts, 53 yards), relying more on QB Dan Orlovsky (28 of 47, 292 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), who actually helped the Lions put up 23 second-quarter points to give them a 23-13 halftime lead before being shut out in the second half.
On Monday, the Lions signed former Pro Bowl QB Daunte Culpepper, and he could end up starting this week as Orlovsky is hurt.
Freefalling Jacksonville tumbled to previously winless Cincinnati 21-19 laying nine points on the road for its second consecutive SU and ATS loss, and the Jags are now 1-4 ATS in their last five starts. The lowly Bengals outgained the Jaguars 312-282, and Jacksonville’s once-feared rushing game netted just 68 yards. QB David Garrard (23 of 38, 229 yards, 0 TDs) threw a third-quarter INT, his first pick in his last 166 attempts.
These teams have met just once this decade, with Jacksonville posting a 23-17 overtime win giving 3½ points in 2004.
The Lions are 6-3 ATS in their last nine against the AFC, but they carry negative ATS trends of 4-12 overall, 0-4 at home, 0-5 on field turf, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 4-9 after a SU loss. The Jaguars are on ATS skids of 0-4 against losing teams and 5-14 as a road chalk, but they are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 non-conference starts and, despite last week’s loss at Cincinnati, 9-5 ATS in their last 14 road games.
The over for Detroit is on streaks of 10-3-1 overall, 5-1-1 on field turf, 4-1-1 at home and 8-3-1 after a SU loss. Likewise, the over for Jacksonville is on runs of 13-4-3 overall, 5-1-1 against losing teams and 8-2-2 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE and OVER
Tennessee (8-0, 7-1 ATS) at Chicago (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS)
The Titans put their perfect record on the line when they step out of the AFC with a trip to Soldier Field to take on the Bears.
Tennessee got all it could handle from Green Bay last week before prevailing 19-16 in overtime, but it failed to cover as a 3½-point home chalk for its first ATS setback of the season. QB Kerry Collins (18 of 37, 180 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was a decent, but Tennessee had no turnovers, while forcing two, and got 178 yards from its ground game. Kicker Rob Bironas won it with a 41-yard field goal on the first possession of the extra session.
Chicago nearly caved in against hapless Detroit last Sunday, rallying for a 27-23 win as an overwhelming 12½-point home favorite. QB Kyle Orton (8 of 14, 108 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) left before halftime with an ankle injury, and backup Rex Grossman (8 of 18, 58 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) wasn’t terribly effective, either, but he led Chicago’s game-winning touchdown drive and got help from rookie RB Matt Forte (126 rushing yards on 22 carries).
The SU winner is still 15-2-1 in the Titans’ last 18 outings and 19-2-1 in Chicago’s last 23 contests.
In the lone meeting this decade between these two teams, Chicago won 19-17 in overtime as a 5½-point road pup in 2004.
Along with their season-long 7-1 ATS run, the Titans are on further pointspread streaks of 5-1 on the road, 9-4 as a road chalk, 4-0 after a non-cover, 7-1 after a SU win, 7-1 on grass and 16-7 against NFC foes. The Bears sport positive ATS runs of 7-3-1 overall, 12-6 as a home ‘dog, 7-1 after a non-cover and 24-11-2 in November, though they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win.
The under for Tennessee is on stretches of 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 on the road, but the over is 7-3-1 in the team’s last 11 November contests, and the over for Chicago is on a 19-4 run at Soldier Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Buffalo (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at New England (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Bills, who have come back to the pack after a 4-0 start, try to get back on track with a trip to Gillette Stadium to meet the defending AFC champion Patriots.
Buffalo are coming off a 26-17 home loss to the Jets laying five points, giving the SU winner a 7-1 ATS mark in the Bills’ eight games this year. QB Trent Edwards (24 of 35, 289 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 fumble) accounted for nearly all of the Bills’ yards, as the team finished with just 30 net rushing yards, but Edwards also committed all three turnovers, with one interception returned 92 yards for a touchdown
New England lost to Indianapolis 18-15 Sunday night but cashed as a 6½-point road underdog, continuing its season-long trend of alternating ATS wins and losses. The Pats outgained the Colts 342-301 and enjoyed a nine-minute edge in time of possession, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0. QB Matt Cassel (25 of 34, 204 yards, 0 TDs) threw his lone INT with 4:40 left in the fourth quarter, keeping New England from at least attempting a game-tying field goal.
New England owns a nine-game winning streak against Buffalo (7-2 ATS), cashing in each of the last three battles. Last year, the Pats posted a pair of blowout wins – 38-7 at home laying 16½ points and a whopping 56-10 road win as a 16-point chalk. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes, but the favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11. Finally, New England is on a 5-2 ATS run at home in this series.
The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a division road pup and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off a non-cover, but they have failed to cash in five straight games against winning teams. Despite last week’s cover, the Patriots are on a bevy of ATS slides, including 4-10 overall, 1-8 at home, 0-6 after a spread-cover, and 3-7 as a home favorite against AFC East rivals. But they are on ATS runs of 15-7 against winning teams and 35-17-1 inside the division.
The under in this rivalry is on a 14-4 overall spree and is 8-1 in the last nine battles at Gillette. In addition, the under for Buffalo is on runs of 4-1-1 against the AFC and 5-2 on the road, and the under for New England is on tears of 7-2-1 overall, 8-1-2 against the AFC, 7-1-2 at home and 9-2 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New Orleans (4-4, 5-3 ATS) at Atlanta (5-3 SU and ATS)
The extremely surprising Falcons look to keep their resurgence going at the Georgia Dome in an NFC South matchup against the Saints.
Atlanta rolled to a 24-0 victory against a flat-lining Oakland squad a week ago, scoring all of its points in the first half and covering easily as a three-point road chalk. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (17 of 22, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) continued to impress with an efficient game, and RB Michael Turner racked up 139 yards on 31 carries as the Falcons netted 252 yards rushing among their 453 total yards, while the defense held the Raiders to just 77 total yards and three first downs.
New Orleans took last week off after beating San Diego 37-32 as a three-point underdog in London, giving the SU winner a 17-1 ATS mark in the Saints’ last 18 games (7-1 this season). QB Drew Brees (30 of 41, 339 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) paced the turnover-free offense, while the defense forced two Chargers miscues.
New Orleans is on a 4-0 run (3-1 ATS) in this rivalry, and the Saints are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Atlanta and 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes overall.
The Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five division games, but they are on ATS runs of 7-3 overall and 4-0 at home. The Saints are on ATS dips of 0-4 after a SU win and 1-4 following a spread-cover, but they’ve been solid in divisional games, going 21-5-1 ATS on their last 27 NFC South trips.
The over for New Orleans is on stretches of 10-2-1 overall, 9-1-1 on field turf, 8-1-1 against the NFC and 4-1 on the highway. For Atlanta, the under is on a 4-1 run and is 10-4 in its last 14 division games, but the over is on a 6-1 in its last seven contests at the Georgia Dome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (2-6, 3-5 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Jets, looking to build on a mild upset last week, return to the Meadowlands for a non-conference contest against the Rams.
New York dropped Buffalo 26-17 as a five-point road pup to pull into a first-place tie with the Bills and Patriots in the AFC East. QB Brett Favre (19 of 28, 201 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was mediocre, and his lone INT was taken back 42 yards for a fourth-quarter TD. But the Jets ended up winning the turnover battle 3-1, including a 92-yard INT return for a TD from Abram Elam in the first quarter, which gave New York the lead for good.
St. Louis got belted by Arizona 34-13 as a three-point home ‘dog last Sunday, suffering its second consecutive SU loss while ending a three-game ATS winning streak. QB Marc Bulger (16 of 33, 186 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 fumble) had a subpar day, and St. Louis gave up a whopping 510 total yards, while gaining just 231.
The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in Jets games this season and 10-1 ATS in St. Louis’ last 11 contests.
St. Louis has won and cashed in two meetings this decade against New York, most recently scoring a 32-29 overtime decision as a 3½-point home underdog in 2005.
The Jets are in ATS ruts of 2-8 against losing teams and 3-7 after a SU win, but they are on a 5-2 ATS run as a non-division home chalk. The Rams are on several negative pointspread streaks, including 3-8 overall, 3-11 against winning teams, 7-16 in November, 20-44-1 after a non-cover and 19-41-1 after a SU setback.
The under for New York is on runs of 8-3-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 9-0 after a spread-cover and 7-3 on grass, and the under for St. Louis is on streaks of 9-3 on the road and 8-1 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (2-6, 3-5 ATS) at Miami (4-4, 5-3 ATS)
The Dolphins go after their third straight win when they welcome the slumping Seahawks to South Beach.
Miami upended Denver 26-17 as a four-point road pup for its second straight win and cover. The Dolphins allowed just 14 rushing yards and picked off Broncos QB Jay Cutler three times, returning one for a first-quarter TD, and Miami racked up a 13-minute advantage in time of possession. QB Chad Pennington was solid, going 23 of 40 for 281 yards with no TDs and one INT.
Seattle is coming off a 26-7 loss to Philadelphia as a seven-point home underdog, falling for the fourth time in five games. Behind backup QB Seneca Wallace (13 of 29, 169 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), who is still subbing for the injured Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks managed just 233 total yards, while allowing 410, and Seattle lost the time-of-possession battle by nearly a full quarter.
Miami is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, most recently losing 24-17 in 2004 but cashing as a 9½-point road ‘dog. The visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Dolphins are on ATS surges of 5-1 overall and 7-1-1 in November, but they are 12-29-1 ATS in their last 42 home games and 4-19 ATS in their last 23 as a home favorite. The Seahawks carry positive ATS streaks of 7-2 after a SU loss and 6-2 after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread dips of 2-5 on the highway, 1-10 in AFC road games and 5-14 in the Eastern time zone.
The over for Seattle is on runs of 8-2-1 overall and 5-1 on the road, but the under for Miami is on streaks of 7-1 after a SU win and 5-0 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Green Bay (4-4, 5-3 ATS) at Minnesota (4-4, 3-5 ATS)
The Packers and Vikings both look to get back above .500 when they square off at the Metrodome in an NFC North clash.
Green Bay lost to Tennessee 19-16 in overtime but got the cash as a 3½-point road pup. QB Aaron Rodgers (22 of 41, 314 yards, 1 TD) let a good day get away from him by committing both of the Packers’ turnovers, on an INT in the end zone and a lost fumble on back-to-back third-quarter possessions. Green Bay didn’t force any turnovers.
Minnesota beat Houston 28-21 as a 6½-point home chalk, ending a two-game ATS hiccup. QB Gus Frerrotte (11 of 18, 182 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) made the most of a limited number of throws, RB Adrian Peterson (25 carries, 139 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, and the Vikings won the turnover battle, 3-1.
The SU winner is 24-1-1 ATS in the Packers’ last 26 contests and 20-2-2 ATS in the Vikings’ last 24 (7-1 this season).
Green Bay opened the season with a 24-19 victory over Minnesota as a two-point home favorite, improving to 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings between these longtime rivals. In addition, the Pack are on a 4-1 ATS run at the Metrodome, the underdog is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 clashes and the visitor has cashed in 10 of the last 13 battles.
The Packers sport positive ATS trends of 19-7-1 overall, 6-1 in road division contests, 5-1 on turf and 12-3-1 on the highway. The Vikings are 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a division favorite, but otherwise they’re on pointspread slides of 3-8 overall, 0-4 against the NFC North, 0-5 after a SU win and 2-5 against NFC foes.
The over for Green Bay is on surges of 19-7-1 overall, 5-0 in division play and 7-1-1 on the road, and the over has cashed in four of Minnesota’s last five games. Also, the over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between these squads at the Metrodome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Carolina (6-2, 4-2-2 ATS) at Oakland (2-6, 3-5 ATS)
The Panthers head to the West Coast in search of their third straight win when they take on the lowly Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.
Carolina, which took last week off, edged Arizona 27-23 two weeks ago as a five-point home chalk, but the SU winner is still 21-2-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 24 games (6-1-1 ATS this year) dating to the 2007 season opener. Carolina trailed 10-3 at the half, but QB Jake Delhomme (20 of 28, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a 21-point third quarter, including two TD passes to Steve Smith.
Oakland was atrocious in last week’s 24-0 loss to Atlanta as a three-point home underdog, its second consecutive SU and ATS loss. The Raiders finished with just 77 total yards and three first downs, in part because they had the ball for less than 15 minutes, and the defense got ripped for 453 yards. QB JaMarcus Russell finished 6 of 19 for just 31 yards with one INT and a lost fumble.
In two meetings this decade with Carolina, Oakland is 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 27-24 road win as a 6½-point underdog in 2004.
The Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, but they boast positive pointspread streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover and 10-5-1 against losing teams. The Raiders, meanwhile, are a horrific 29-59-1 ATS in their last 89 games, 9-25 ATS in their last 34 at home and 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 against the NFC.
For Carolina, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall, 9-1 in November and 5-1 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on a 36-15-2 stretch against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
Kansas City (1-7, 4-4 ATS) at San Diego (3-5 SU and ATS)
The Chargers come back from their bye week looking to end a two-game losing skid when they host the Chiefs in an AFC West matchup at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego fell to New Orleans 37-32 in London two weeks ago as a three-point chalk, giving the SU winner an eye-opening 25-1-1 ATS mark in the Bolts’ last 27 games (7-0-1 ATS this season). QB Philip Rivers (25 of 40, 341 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a strong outing, but in an otherwise evenly played game – San Diego outgained New Orleans 451-409 – the Chargers committed the game’s only two turnovers.
Kansas City is coming off a heartbreaking 30-27 overtime loss to Tampa Bay, blowing a 24-3 second-quarter lead, but the Chiefs covered as a 9½-point underdog for their second straight ATS win. QB Tyler Thigpen (14 of 25, 164 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was mistake-free, and the Chiefs failed to fully take advantage of a 4-1 turnover edge, scoring just three points after halftime.
These rivals split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and covering, and the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 contests. However, the host is on a 5-2 ATS run, and despite last year’s home loss, San Diego is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes at Qualcomm.
Despite their setback across the pond, the Chargers remain on ATS runs of 12-4-1 overall, 9-1 at home, 4-1-1 after a non-cover, 20-6-4 in division play and 20-7-3 after a SU loss, and they are also 6-2 ATS the past eight years when coming off the bye. The Chiefs have cashed in six straight games as a double-digit pup and eight of their last 11 on the highway, but they are in ATS slumps of 1-5 versus the AFC West, 4-9 on grass and 13-28 in November.
The over for San Diego is on streaks of 8-2 after a SU loss, 11-3 after a pointspread setback, 13-4-1 in November and 12-5 against losing teams, and the over for K.C. is on runs of 5-1 overall and 5-0 after a SU loss. However, the under has been the play in five of the last seven series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Indianapolis (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-2, 4-4 ATS)
The Steelers, coming off their fourth road win in five attempts this season, return to Heinz Field to take on the Colts.
Pittsburgh flattened Washington 23-6 on Monday night as a one-point road ‘dog, scoring the game’s final 23 points in moving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games. QB Ben Roethlisberger (5 of 17, 50 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) played only the first half due to a shoulder injury, but Byron Leftwich (7 of 10, 129 yards, 1 TD) was solid off the bench. In a defensive battle, the Steelers narrowly outgained the Redskins 224-221, but Pittsburgh forced two Jason Campbell INTs – the first two picks of the season for the Washington QB.
Indianapolis edged New England 18-15 but couldn’t cover as a 6½-point home chalk, the first time in 11 games that the SU winner failed to cash in a Colts game. QB Peyton Manning (21 of 29, 254 yards, 2 TDs) had a clean game as Indy committed no turnovers, while forcing two, which helped make up for a nine-minute time-of-possession deficit.
Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) in the last four meetings with Indianapolis, including a stunning 21-18 upset playoff win following the 2005 season as a 10-point road underdog, en route to winning the Super Bowl.
The Colts are on a 6-3-1 ATS surge as a non-division road ‘dog, but they are in pointspread funks of 3-7 overall, 0-5 against winning teams and 2-5 against AFC foes. The Steelers, despite their current 3-1 ATS streak, are on pointspread slides of 1-5 after a spread-cover, 2-5 as a home chalk and 3-7-1 in November.
The under is 8-2 in Indy’s last 10 November starts, but the over is on a 5-2 run on the road for the Colts, and the over for Pittsburgh is on stretches of 7-1 against the AFC, 37-14-2 at home, 7-3-1 on grass and 11-5-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Baltimore (5-3, 6-2 ATS) at Houston (3-5, 2-6 ATS)
The surging Ravens seek their fourth straight win when they travel to Reliant Stadium for a meeting with the Texans.
Baltimore topped Cleveland 37-27 as a one-point road pup, winning and covering for the third week in a row, and the SU winner is now 17-2 in the Ravens’ last 19 games (7-1 ATS this year). Rookie QB Joe Flacco (17 of 29, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) helped Baltimore rally from a 27-13 second-half deficit, as the Ravens outscored the Browns 17-0 in the fourth quarter. The Ravens capped the game with LB Terrell Suggs’ 42-yard INT return for a TD late in the fourth quarter.
Houston saw its three-game winning streak come to an end in a 28-21 loss at Minnesota , falling just short as a 6½-point road ‘dog. QB Sage Rosenfels (21 of 29, 224 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) led two second-half TD drives after starter Matt Schaub left with a knee injury, but the Texans gave up 168 rushing yards and lost the turnover battle 3-1.
These two teams have met just twice, with Baltimore winning both (1-1 ATS). In their last meeting in 2005, the Ravens prevailed 16-15, but the Texans took the money as a 7½-point pup
The Ravens are on ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 4-0 against losing teams and 4-0 after a SU win, but they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 on the highway. The Texans are in ATS declines of 1-4 overall, 1-4 after a SU loss, 2-6 against winning teams and 5-11 against AFC opponents.
The over for Baltimore is on tears of 11-4 overall, 6-2 on the road, 11-2 on grass and 11-3 against AFC foes. For Houston, the over is on streaks of 20-8-1 overall, 4-1 at home 7-1 on grass, 7-1 against the AFC and 17-5 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
N.Y. Giants (7-1, 6-2 ATS) at Philadelphia (5-3, 6-2 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Giants head to Lincoln Financial Field for a key NFC East clash against the resurgent Eagles in prime time.
New York plastered Dallas 35-14 and easily cashed as a 9½-point home chalk for its third straight win and cover, giving the SU winner an 18-2 ATS mark in the Giants’ last 20 games (7-1 ATS this season). QB Eli Manning (16 of 27, 147 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) turned limited yards into a lot of points, RB Brandon Jacobs rushed for 117 yards and a TD on 17 carries, and the Giants held the Tony Romo-less Cowboys to just 183 total yards.
Philadelphia ripped Seattle 26-7 as a seven-point road chalk last week, and like the Giants, the Eagles are on a 3-0 SU and ATS tear. QB Donovan McNabb (28 of 43, 349 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a big day as the Eagles posted a 419-233 total yardage advantage and a more than a 14-minute edge in time of possession. The Eagles shut out the Seahawks over the last three quarters.
New York is on a 3-0 ATS run (2-1 SU) in this rivalry, including sweeping last year’s season series, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. Also, the underdog has cashed in the last six matchups.
The Giants are on a plethora of positive pointspread runs, including 20-6 overall, 19-7 on the road, 8-0 against winning teams, 9-2 after a SU win, 9-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against the NFC East (2-0 this year). The Eagles, meanwhile, are on ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in November, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-2 against the NFC and 6-2 after a SU win.
The under is 10-4 in New York’s last 14 road contests and 4-1 in its last five division games, but the over is 5-2 in its last seven overall. For Philadelphia, the under is on runs of 6-0 at home, 5-1 against winning teams and 7-3 inside the division, and the total has stayed low in the last three meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dave Fobare
Lions (+6½) over Jaguars
The Lions may be 0-8, but after a disastrous start the last four losses have been reasonably competitive. Those games were decided by 2, 4, 8 and 7 points and Detroit had leads in three of them. The Lions even managed a 23- 13 halftime lead over Chicago last Sunday before losing 27- 23. The biggest Lions' news this weekend though was the signing of free agent QB Daunte Culpepper. He worked out in Allen Park during the week, inked a deal on Saturday and Rod Marinelli announced the signing in his postgame press conference. Mum was the word during the week but it leaked out in postgame player interviews that QB Dan Orlovsky was told during the week that last Sunday would be his last start. I'm willing to look favorably on the installation of Culpepper as the QB starter. By all accounts the veteran's workouts were impressive. But most importantly was the success of Dan Orlovsky. Since Matt Millen was let go personnel decisions have been better all the way around. Millen's interim replacement Martin Mayhew got the better of Jerry Jones when WR Roy Williams was shipped back to his home state of Texas for multiple draft picks just before the trade deadline. At about the same time ex-starting QB Jon Kitna was placed on IR in favor of Orlovsky. Against a better schedule of opponents Orlovsky compiled a QB rating six points higher than Kitna's - 78 to 72. So I do believe the Lions' braintrust got this right and Culpepper will improve on the Lions' offensive stats. And Culpepper won't have a problem learning the offense, because it is the simplest scheme in the entire league. During training camp OC Jim Coletto bragged that the bulk of the running plays took only 3 days to install. One local pundit last week said he was told by a Lions' insider that the average offensive player could learn the offense in the time it took to make a single, ahem, visit to the bathroom. Those aforementioned stats are really the first indicator that drew me to this side. I'm sick of beating this horse, but starting in game 6 or so winless NFL dogs are a solid longtime winner for their backers. But it does require some intestinal fortitude because these teams are almost always taking the worst of it from a statistical perspective. That is what makes the Lions an interesting play - my stat model actually prefers them. My numbers make the Jags just a 1.5 point favorite in this game on the season long numbers. Tech backing for Detroit comes from a 112-50 ATS system that plays on teams in their division's basement. This system is 20-12 ATS since I started using it, including 1-1 so far in 2008. Detroit also benefits from a 67-30 ATS system that plays on bad defensive teams on long losing streaks. But the tech case is not the main reason to back the dog here. The Detroit organization makes better decisions without Matt Millen, and the move to install Culpepper tells the current roster that the club wants to win now, and probably won't be moving the untested 2nd year QB Drew Stanton into the starting spot just to see what the kid has. That might not be the best long term move, but it should definitely bolster the emotional state of a roster that can use every pick-me-up it can. Look for Detroit to get off the schneid this weekend. Detroit by 1.
Matty Baiungo
Raiders (+8½) over Panthers
Well, here we go again. Another recommendation of a bad, ugly underdog in the NFL that will have little, to no backing on Sunday. But these are the best type of underdogs to play in the NFL, the ones nobody wants. And after you see this box score, you may think this play is flat out crazy. The Falcons shutout the Raiders 24-0 at the Coliseum with Atlanta winning first downs 30-3 and yardage 453-77 with a time of possession edge of 45:15 – 14:45. Oakland had a total of 10 passing yards. Those are no misprints, and they very well could be some sort of records. The Falcons gained 5.5 yards per play while the Raiders could only muster 2.3 yards per play. It’s really unfathomable that a team of professional athletes making millions of dollars per year could put forth an effort like that in front of their faithful fans. But that’s exactly what happened. And as you would expect, there were plenty of quotes coming out of the Oakland locker room after a humiliating performance. “During the week, we look like we’re a Super Bowl team, and we come out there and we’re damn near the laughingstock of the league, and it’s ridiculous,” said Gibril Wilson. “The people in this locker room have to look at themselves in the mirror and see exactly what they’re bringing to the table, and if they’re not bringing anything to the table, then get off the ship, period.” Interim head coach Tom Cable was quoted as saying that Sunday's performance fooled him because he thought the Raiders came into the game after "an amazing week" of practice and "our best week of preparation." If so, then how on earth can they regroup here and put forth a competitive effort against the Panthers? It’s called heart. And maybe the Raiders simply don’t have any, but this is the spot to take a shot and give them the benefit of the doubt that they’ve got it. The most dangerous animals are ones that are backed into corners, and that’s where the Raiders are right now. Nobody is taking them seriously. How can you? But they get paid just like the guys they’ll face opposite them. The talent level isn’t all that different, so we’ll take a shot with the wounded dog looking to snap back with vengeance. Carolina enters off their bye. And they witnessed what the rest of the world did. A pathetic performance out of Oakland. And like everyone else who laughed at the Raiders, the Panthers players were doing the same. Their week of practice will not be full of serious preparation, but instead one full of lackadaisical effort thinking they just need to show up in Oakland and they’ll get an easy win. Now one could say that will not be the case because head coach John Fox is such an intense guy. But when we look at his bad record as a favorite (25-30-2 ATS), his tendency dictates that’s exactly what will be going on this week in Charlotte. Under Fox, Carolina has 27……… road wins. Of those 27 wins, 17 of them have come in the underdog role and were won by 10 points or less. So that leaves ten games in which the Panthers were laying points, and of those 10 games, only 4 times have they won by 10 points or more. So that means, the Panthers would be 4- 23 against the spread if they played against the number on this game. With Carolina only 1-2 on the road this year, and Oakland off such an embarrassing loss, expect the dog to have a lot of bit here. Panthers by only 1.
Kevin O’Neill
Rams (+7½) over Jets
The Bills are a pretty good team, but they played a flat game and made the Jets look better than they really are on Sunday. A key point in this game was in the first half. After a Jets minus-4-yard field goal “drive” to cut the Bills lead to 7-6, Buffalo took the kickoff and got the ball on their own 30. Buffalo proceeded to run the next 27 plays, notching 119 yards of offense, yet didn’t get a point out of it. How did this happen? Long drive inside the 10, 92-yard interception return, receive the kickoff, long drive inside the 10, get stuffed on 4th and 1. Leaving points on the board like that is demoralizing, and instead of being in a position of having a double-digit lead, the Bills maintained only a sliver of a margin. Buffalo played poorly from then on, and the Jets notched a win, despite their only offensive TD being scored on a 60-yard drive. After playing three good games in a row the Rams threw in a clunker on Sunday against a Cardinals team that has had their number. Arizona regularly dominates the team from their own home city, and this one was no different. But we’re willing to forgive that putrid performance by St. Louis. First of all, they were playing an Arizona team that might be pretty good, and is led by a quarterback in Kurt Warner who loves to return to his former home dome. Secondly, it’s tough to play well week after week, and St. Louis was off a 19-17 win at Washington, 34-14 domination of Dallas, and 16-23 last minute tough loss in New England to a Patriots team that they outgained. Except for the absolute top teams, winning streaks are broken easily in the NFL. And St. Louis simply had a colossal letdown on a day where Steven Jackson wasn’t 100% and shouldn’t have tried to play. The Jets benefited from 3 turnovers on Sunday and how have forced 13 on the season. The problem is that 10 of those 13 have been in two games. In their other six games they have forced only three total. So you’re not looking at a wrecking crew that’s hell bent on separating their man from the ball on a regular basis. Now let’s not suggest that the Jets aren’t doing anything well. They’re protecting Favre fairly well while generating some sacks on their own. But this 5-3 outfit is far from a dominating entry, and they are likely the weakest team with a winning record in the league. Since September and until Sunday their schedule had been bye week, Cincinnati, at Oakland, Kansas City. Against those dregs their average result was a four-point win and if not for a late TD at home against the Chiefs the Jets would have lost two of three. The Rams are capable of better than those teams, and with this team responding well to Jim Haslett, we’ll look for a bounce back. Anyone riding the Rams improvement probably stops playing St. Louis after Sunday’s blowout loss, which makes this a good time to jump on board. Favre pulls it out late, but we’ll look for a Rams cover.Jets by only 3.
FAIRWAY JAY
JACKSONVILLE AT DETROIT +6
Recommendation: Detroit
We cashed another outright underdog winner on the Cincinnati Bengals over Jacksonville last week as part of our 5-1 service play Sunday. We’ll come right back with another ugly home underdog this week. The Lions remain winless after letting a victory get away at Chicago last week, but they’ve been more competitive in their last four games versus better opponents than Jacksonville.The Lions’ No. 31-ranked running attack remains a problem along with an inexperienced quarterback unable to make consistent plays in the passing game. But the Bengals’ equally poor QB play and running game had a season-high 159 rushing yards last week against this troubled Jaguars defense that allows over 5.8 ypp, 4.5 ypr and 7.5 ypp. The Jaguars’ offensive line play remains a concern, along with the team’s mental make-up following back-to-back losses as 7-point favorites. We’ve also seen head coach Jack Del Rio lash out at his players en route to being placed on the coaching hot seat. Overall, the Jaguars’ prevalent chemistry and confidence issues combined with the Lions still clawing for their first victory has us taking the points.
JARED KLEIN
NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA -1
Recommendation: Atlanta
The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the bigger surprises of the season thanks to a sound defense and ball control offense. Running back Michael Turner’s arrival was the perfect compliment to quarterback Matt Ryan’s development. In fact, you couldn’t have gotten a better situation than to have a rookie quarterback playing behind the league’s No. 1 rush offense. But while the run game is the first option, Ryan has shown he can stretch the field and make good decisions. In facing the league’s 24th-ranked pass defense, we fully expect another balanced offensive performance out of the Falcons. New Orleans comes in off a bye week and its trip to London where they moved to 4-4 with a win over the Chargers. It is no secret that the Saints want to throw the ball early and often but we’ve see the Falcons’ bend but don’t break defense come out victorious when forcing teams into a one-dimensional mode. In wins over Chicago, Green Bay and Detroit, the Falcons allowed 359 ypg passing but limited the run game to 81 ypg. Those numbers are almost identical to what the Saints average for the season. After getting rid of the bad apples and making some smart off-season moves, you could argue the Falcons have surpassed the Saints in terms of overall ability. Look for a big divisional win from them this weekend.
TIM TRUSHEL
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA -2.5
Recommendation: Minnesota
Gus Frerotte has made a huge difference for this Minnesota team as the Vikings have outpassed the opposition in four of their last six games. They rank in the upper half of the league in both yardage and scoring while still keying their offense with a very strong rushing attack. Defensively, they are tremendous at stopping the run, allowing just 69.6 ypg. At 4-4 at the midway point they are in good position for the time being within their division. However, having already suffered losses to both Chicago and Green Bay, these remaining division battles take on added meaning. Green Bay is a similarly skilled, but flawed team. While more successful with the passing attack they have struggled to maintain a consistent rush offense. Defensively they are much weaker in stopping the run and that plays favorably to Minnesota’s offense. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Packers escaped with a Monday Night home win. If Minnesota had a adequate passing attack at the time instead of Tarvaris Jackson, they likely would have reversed the outcome. With that option now available, we like Minnesota to earn the win. Home field in a win situation has been a consistent earner for Minnesota as they are 7-1 straight up and against the spread as a home favorite of -3 or less. Look for that success to continue.