Brian Gabrielle
Last Week: What's that I said last week about cookie-cutter races not paying off big, but paying off? Very predictably, Carl Edwards followed up his Atlanta win two weeks ago with a victory at the eminently similar track in Texas, giving us a win but only delivering on +350 odds. That's all right, we'll take it. For the week, that meant a 50% profit: we netted 0.25 units on 0.5 units wagered. For the season, we've profited 5.53 units on 38.5 units wagered, a return of 14.4%. We've also given you a winning week in 24 of 33 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won 1.5 units on three units wagered; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 19.73 units on 121 units wagered, a return of 16.3%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Denny Hamlin (+900), 1/6th unit. Hamlin would've won here in the spring had Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer (+1800) not been able to make the checkers on fumes; Hamlin did have the fastest car by race's end. And that's not the first time that's happened to him at Phoenix. He drives really well at the flatter tracks in the Car of Tomorrow, and while the No. 11 team has been ice cold, I think Hamlin has one more good run in him, this week at the flat track in the desert.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+450), 1/6th unit. If I have to place a bet on one of the two title contenders at Phoenix International Raceway, I'm taking Johnson over Carl Edwards (+500). There's no question, Edwards has it in him to register a top 10 on Sunday, but I just don't like the Roush flat-track program enough to wager on him. Instead, I'll take J.J., who may play it an eensy bit safe Sunday, making sure he doesn't go a lap down early again (as he's done each of the past two weeks), but who is a true dominator at the flat tracks in the COT.
Take Jeff Gordon (+1500), 1/6th unit. How the mighty have fallen. I can't say I recall Gordon's odds being this long at any point in the past few years. The fact is, though, that he's got the second-best finishing average at the Phoenix track type over the past two years (since the COT has been in effect). He only finished 13th here back in April, which doesn't do much for me, but he finished second and fourth at Martinsville this year, plus had two other top-10 finishes at the flattish shorter track in Richmond. I'll give the oddsmakers this: it is relatively unlikely that Gordon gets it done Sunday. Still, at this price, I think it's worth the chance.
Pure Lock
ST LOUIS @ NY JETS
PLAY: ST LOUIS (+)
R&R Totals
Carolina @ Oakland
Play: UNDER
Mikey Sports
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
Play: Indianapolis (+)
Bob Majors
DET +7 vs JAC
The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) travel to the winless Detroit Lions (0-8) in a early morning contest.The Jags lost last week to Cincinnati 21-19 as the Bengals won their first game. QB David Garrad had a chance to tie on a 2 point conversion, but the passs fell incomplete. The running game was ineffective last week as it has been the key for the Jags averaing 176 rushing yards in their wins, but only 70.0 in their losses.The Lions QB Dan Orlovsky threw for 292 yards with two touchdowns and two interception against Chicago lost 27-23. Former QB Dante Culpepper was signed this week to join the QB staff and may see some action. The Lions are second worst in teh league in run defense allowing 161.8 ypg.The Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games overall and 0-4 ATS versus a team with a losing record. The Lions are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.I feel the Lions offense will stay close with the Jags and getting the generous points at home is a plus. Take the Lions
John Fina
Selection: Oakland Raiders +10
Reason: Put us down on the Oakland Raiders +10 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. This may seem ridiculous considering the Raiders abysmal performance last week against the Falcons. The Oakland offense even managed to have negative yards in the first half but bear with us on this one-it will be worth it. The fact that the Raiders were shut out at home creates a strong indication for a total bounce back. History shows us that over the past 6 years their have been 22 teams that were shutout at home like Oakland. Those teams bounced back the following game going 16-6 against the spread. Ten of those games were outright victories. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 games and won two consecutively before last week’s bye. However, this season Carolina has outgained their competition by an average of only 33 yards per game, and have themselves been outgained for three games in a row. The Panthers have also had the advantage of playing at home in 4 of their last 5 games. On the road, Carolina is 1-2 winning only against the Chargers at the season opener, and that win was a very surprising one. Again, the Oakland offense was absolutely horrible last week managing only 77 yards which included 10 in the air. The end of the game saw the Raiders with a total of only 3 first downs. However, Atlanta did control the clock for more than 30 minutes and ran 49 more plays from the line of scrimmage. The Raiders literally have nowhere to go but up since that game. This is going to be a challenge for the Raiders facing the Panthers’ 8th ranked defense. There will be a huge effort from the Raiders to establish the run which was unattainable last week because they got down early. The Panthers are ranked 16th in the NFL, allowing 4.0 yards per carry, however their offense is nothing special. Carolina is ranked 16th in total offense and have only put up a combined 39 points on the road. Like many overrated teams, the Panthers are not at all the same on the road as at home so this is a ridiculous number for Carolina to be laying. Grab those points! Take the Oakland Raiders +10!
Team Who2beton
This is a horrible scheduling spot for the New York Jets, while the St. Louis Rams offense does not figure to do much, so this total seems very inflated to us. The Jets are coming off of a pivotal road division win vs. the Buffalo Bills, and they have the New England Patriots up next in a Thursday night game, meaning they will have just three days off after this game.
We find it difficult to believe that they will be focused on this non-conference affair vs. a 2-6 opponent that they should beat while sleepwalking, which what we feel they will attempt to do. The Rams are averaging just 15.6 points per game, and running back Steven Jackson clearly came back prematurely, rushing for just 17 yards on seven carries last week. Coach Jim Haslett has not committed that Jackson will start this week, and there is a drastic drop-off behind him on the depth chart.
Quarterback Marc Bulger is turnover-prone enough when the offense is balanced, and he would struggle mightily of forced to pass every play. All things considered, it appears that this high total does not factor in the probable indifference by the Jets here, so the Under looks like a solid selection.
Pick: Rams, Jets Under 44
Bobby Maxwell
Houston at L.A. LAKERS -7'
We've got a winner on the pro hardwood tonight as we play the Lakers to take care of business at home against Houston.
How good have the Lakers looked this season? They have come firing out to start the season and look like a team poised to have a monster season and stake their claim for an NBA title.
Los Angeles scored a 106-88 win over the Clippers on Wednesday and have had some time to rest since then. They held the Clippers to 38.9 percent shooting and even on a night when the Lakers shot poorly the still won the game by 18 points.
Last season Kobe Bryant averaged 33 points a game against the Rockets but Houston took two of three, including their only meeting in Hollywood when they got a season-opening win at the buzzer. But that was a long time ago. The Lakers' roster has matured and these guys can play. They have a deep bench and you'll see them wear down Houston and get a big win tonight.
The Rockets have a good team and will be one of the West's top teams when the season is done - provided they can all stay healthy. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady have a habit of getting injured during the regular season and Ron Artest is a good defender but he has to have the other two to be effective.
The Lakers are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 matchups with the Rockets and went 2-1 ATS against them last season. Houston has topped the 100-point total just once this season while the Lakers have topped in in three of four and the game they didn't go over the century mark they put up 96.
Let's lay the chalk and play the Lakers. They look like the best team in the NBA right now and they'll deliver a big win tonight.
2♦ LAKERS
Baltimore (pk) at HOUSTON
NFL winner coming your way today as we play the Ravens to get the best of the Texans in Houston.
The Ravens have found their QB in Joe Flacco. The kid has emerged to lead the Ravens to three straight victories and you know they always bring that stingy defense with them. Today they got to Houston where Flacco will manage the offense to enough points to get the victory.
Flacco has thrown for 620 yards, four TDs and thrown no INTs during this three-game winning streak for the Ravens. He was the AFC's offensive player of the week after throwing for 248 yards and two TDs in their 37-27 come-from-behind win over Cleveland last week. And they found a RB in rookie Ray Rice who carried 21 times for 154 yards.
Of course you have the dominating Baltimore defense that ranks fourth in pass defense and second in total defense. And these guys know how to capitalize on turnovers, like last week's 42-yard INT return for a score from LB Terrell Suggs.
Houston has been up and down this season and today they start backup Sage Rosenfels who last time he was on the field in Houston had three turnovers in the fourth quarter as Indy rallied from a 17-point deficit with just over five minutes to play to beat the Texans.
Big factor in this one is the loss of Houston LB Zac Diles who broke a leg in practice. He led the team with 66 tackles and was one of those guys who helped them stuff the run. If the Ravens can run, they'll control the clock and make life tough all around for the Texans.
Look for a low-scoring road win for the Ravens in this one. It'll finish in the vicinity of 21-13 for Baltimore.
4♦ BALTIMORE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Buffalo at NEW ENGLAND -4
New England is off that tough Sunday night loss at Indianapolis, but now they return home to face a sliding Buffalo team. The Bills started the season at 4-0, and were doing everything right, now Dick Jauron's team has dropped their last pair, and 3 of their last 4 both straight up, and against the spread.
To make matters worse, New England has dumped Buffalo 9 straight times, while going 7-2 against the spread in those 9.
The Bills rushed for just 30 yards in last weeks home division loss to the Jets, and Buffalo also turned it over a couple of times in that game that helped contribute to the 26-17 setback.
We simply don't trust Buffalo's recent regression, and with Matt Cassel starting to look a little more comfortable settling in under center, and the Pats on a 9-0 series roll, we will lay the small home number with New England this Sunday afternoon.
Play on the Pats.
3♦ NEW ENGLAND
Karl Garrett
Green Bay at MINNESOTA
Big division showdown between the Pack, and the Vikes, and the G-Man is calling for a high-scoring game today at the Metrodome.
Minnesota has suddenly found an offense, as they have tallied 28 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games, and they have been OVER the posted total in 2 straight, and 4 of their last 5.
Green Bay comes into this one off a hard-faught overtime UNDER at Tennessee, but the Packers have played UP in 9 of their last 12 on the road.
The first meeting between the teams on the opening Monday night did go OVER the posted price, and the last pair of series meetings at Minnesota have also gone OVER the total as well.
G-Man is looking for this one to also find its way OVER the total before the final gun.
Play it HIGH!
4♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
For Sunday we’ll back the Lions plus the points at home against the Jaguars.
Obviously, this has been a disastrous season for Detroit – so disastrous that the team is handing over the offense to a gimpy quarterback who has seen limited action the last few years and who just signed a contract this week. That said, at least the Lions have been pretty competitive over the past month – they’re 3-1 ATS in their last four games, with losses coming by margins of 2, 7, 8 and 4 points. Detroit actually had a lead in three of those contests against the Vikings, Redskins and Bears, all three of which are playoff-caliber squads.
Also, even though this isn’t 2002, Daunte Culpepper is a clear upgrade over Dan Orlovsky at quarterback and even with limited knowledge of the offense, he should be able to get the ball in the hands of talented WR Calvin Johnson
As for the Jaguars, they’re arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL (yes, even more disappointing than the Lions), as many had them pegged as a Super Bowl contender when the season started. Instead, they come into this game having dropped three of their last four games, including last week’s inexcusable 21-19 loss at previously winless Cincinnati. The Jags, whose vaunted running game has been stuck in the mud virtually the entire season, are 2-6 ATS on the season, with all six non-covers coming in the role of favorite! So how in the world can they be laying this kind of chalk against anyone … especially when all eight of their games have been decided by seven points or less … and when they’re playing their second straight road game against a desperate, winless team?
Bottom line: If the Lions had shown signs of quitting, I wouldn’t touch them at all. But they haven’t quit, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Culpepper gives the team a much-needed spark. Nor would I be shocked if Detroit followed the Bengals’ lead and finally got in the win column at the expense of the overrated Jaguars. Take the points.
4♦ DETROIT LIONS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the points with the Rams.
No doubt the Jets are clearly the superior team when compared to the Rams, who at times play like Lambs, but just a tough tough spot for Brett Favre and the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets here.
New York just had that really quality win in Buffalo upsetting Marshawn Lynch and the Bulls. But if you really look into what happened Buffalo dominated the game but lost because Eric Mangini's squad got an early pick 6 and held on late. Now the Jets come back home in a letdown spot and a total sandwich situation against the semi lowly Rams while looking ahead to a monster battle with the Patriots in just four days from now.
Stephen Jackson will be out and St. Louis was fairly terrible in that last home loss to the Cardinals but with Bulger, Avery and Holt there are enough weapons for the visitors to stay inside this number. Jim Haslett has had some success over this last month as the team blew out the Cowboys and played very competitive in New England two weeks ago so there is some life and a pulse at least with the Rams.
Favre has been not only bad but fairly awful over the past month. I really do not think the guy is right. In that overtime loss in Oakland a month ago for whatever reason he would not even throw the ball and things have really not gotten much better of late as he has thrown stupid pick after stupid pick.
New York may win this game in the end as the homefield is huge and they are the better team but with Bill Belichick and the Pats on deck in a few days I just do not see a burial at all against at least a capable St. Louis group.
Jake Timlin
Your Sunday selection is the Atlanta Falcons.
Back the most surprising team of the year I like the Falcons at home today. The same Atlanta team that has looked amazing at home going 3-0 on the season. Well thank to this one being played in Georgia and with the Saints an awful 1-4 SU in their last 5 on the road all signs point toward the Falcons here. Especially once you factor in that it is Atlanta who is the better balanced team and who leads the league in rushing as New Orleans is all offense and little on defense. Plus, once you factor in the London hangover for the Saints today the Falcons are in a perfect situation to pull off a mild upset. So where ever line ends up take the Falcons at home for the win.
All Atlanta!
Tony Weston
Hey, I admit, I was off yesterday, as the Texas Longhorns failed to cover against Baylor, winning by only 24 points instead of 26. While it was still a blowout, those two points mattered to us.
Oh well, I'm not sweating that as I'll get back on the winning track tonight as we're taking the New York Giants over the Philadelphia Eagles in what should be a slugfest that the Giants will outright as a 3-point underdog.
New York comes into this game 7-1 SU this season and 6-2 ATS, including wins SU and ATS in each of its last three games. The Eagles are also 6-2 ATS this season and have also won three straight games SU and ATS.
However, over the last three weeks the Eagles have had gimmes against the San Francisco 49ers, the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks; three teams that won't even sniff the postseason this year. The Giants, on the other hand, have had the 49ers, but have also played on the road in Pittsburgh and won by seven and played host to always-dangerous Dallas and won by 21.
The Giants come into this game 20-6 ATS their last 26 games and are 19-7 ATS their last 26 games on the road. New York is also 8-0 ATS its last eight games against teams with winning records and is 4-1 ATS its last five games against the NFC East, including a 2-0 mark this season.
New York still looks like the best team in the NFC and will prove it again tonight. Take the Giants on the road in Philly tonight.
3♦ GIANTS
10 Units
Vikings (-2½) over Packers
1:00 PM -- Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minnesota by 7-10 points
5 Units
Eagles (-3) over Ny Giants
8:15 PM -- Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia by 7-10
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Jaguars/Lions UNDER 43 Points
1:00 PM -- Ford Field
40 or less points
Advantage Plays
Of course, we know that double digit underdogs are 11-1-1 against the spread this year with four straight up wins. And we also know that laying points with a bad defense is suicide at doubles. Ok, let me explain why... the Chargers came home from London and did the smartest thing they could, fire Ted Cottrell from his defensive coordinator position. People in Minneapolis are asking how he got hired in the first place, since he ruined their defense a couple of years ago. What had changed was the attacking style that was so successful in past years to a more "read and react" type that handcuffed the corners and linebackers. Even with Merriman in the lineup, he was asked to cover backs and wideouts instead of playing the pass rushing, aggressive format. Cottrell's replacement, Ron Rivera, was a linebacker in the Bears defense under Buddy Ryan and Mike Ditka and is committed to bringing pressure all day. Why does this matter?
Because the poor Chiefs just played two back-breaking games that they lost in the final moments, with last week's game at home against a weak offensive team in Tampa Bay that made their rookie corners look really bad down the stretch. Now they have to travel and face an angry team, off a bye in a division game with a new defensive coordinator that can figure out what Tyler Thigpen was doing in the spread offense at Coastal Carolina. That is what Herm Edwards and his staff have done to give Thigpen more comfort, change the O to suit his game. Fine enough, but they still bring rookie corners and a serious lack of a pass rush to this event, and with two weeks off I am looking for the Bubble Burst Effect" to take over here. Kansas City blew their load at home last week, and with a new DC and scheme approach in place, the Chargers offense will work with short fields and open lanes al day. Even if KC gets to 20 (tough to expect as they have yet to reach 21 in 13 of the past sixteen games), the Chargers will still cover this number. I will risk bucking the trends and face the reality of these two teams in current form. Two weeks to prepare is a great advantage, especially facing a rebuilding team off two straight bad losses. Time to buck the trends.
Chargers 40, Chiefs 13.
Sportsbettingstats
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Last week the Giants beat the Cowboys 35-14 while the Eagles beat Seattle 26-7. This is a big NFC East match up, as the Giants can really take control of the division with a win while the Eagles can get back in the playoff picture with a win. The Eagles are led by QB Donovan McNabb (2178 yds 10 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are DeSean Jackson (34 rec 525 yds 1 TD) and Hank Baskett (19 rec 278 yds 2 TD). The Eagles rushing attack is led by RB Brian Westbrook (422 yds 6 TD). The Giants are led by QB Eli Manning (1735 yds 12 TD 5 INT) and his main targets are Plaxico Burress (31 rec 390 yds 3 TD) and Steve Smith (34 rec 328 yds 1 TD). The Giants rushing attack is led by Brandon Jacobs (680 yds 7 TD).
Staff Pick: This game features two teams that rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense. The Eagles rank 5th on defense and 6th on offense while the Giants rank 3rd on defense and 5th on offense. The Eagles are finally healthy, as they have been banged up as of late, especially Westbrook. Westbrook is the key to the Eagles offense, as he opens up the field because opposing defenses do not only focus on stopping McNabb. The Eagles defense has to get to Eli Manning or he will pick apart their secondary. The Giants are a better running team if looking at the stats, led by Jacobs who ranks 5th in the league in rushing yards, but with Westbrook back they are pretty even. The Giants offensive line has to protect Manning or it will be a long day for the Giants in the City of Brotherly Love. The Eagles are 5-3 and the Giants are 7-1, so if the Eagles lose it will be an uphill battle for them to make the playoffs, as they still have to play the Giants in New York and the Redskins in Washington and both those teams are ahead of them in the division. Look for Brain Westbrook to have a good game, as he will be the key to the Eagles winning and getting back in the division race.
Eagles 24 Giants 19