Randall the Handle
ATLANTA –1 over New Orleans
Yeah, the Saints might have the league’s best QB and yeah, they’re coming off a bye week but this is a completely different team on the road then they are at home and that’s significant. In fact, aside from a game in London on a neutral field, the Saints have not won on the road this season, losing to Washington, Carolina and Denver. The Saints have been one of the worst road teams over the past 20 years and it’s just in their DNA to perform badly away from home. The Saints defense has allowed an alarming number of points and yards on the ground and it sure doesn’t help that starting end Charles Grant (33 tackles, 3 sacks) had to be placed on injured reserve (No Reggie bush either). How about a little respect for the Falcons, huh? They possess a deadly running game, they’re moving the ball very efficiently indeed and their defense is playing aggressively and effectively. The Falcons have yet to lose at home and in fact, their three losses came all on the road at Tampa Bay, Philly and Carolina and that’s a very tough trio by anyone’s standards. The Falcons should be able to run the ball with ease here and keep Drew Brees and company off the field for long stretches at a time. Also note that the Saints are very prone to mistakes, especially on the road and this week they could run into some more trouble as the team will go with its third kicker and punter this season in order to improve its brutal kicking game. You know that’s a disaster waiting to happen. With that in mind, I’ll gladly play against a team that has zero road wins vs a team with zero home losses. Play: Atlanta –1 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Buffalo +3½ over NEW ENGLAND
Since opening the year 4-0 the Bills are just 1-3 since but that could easily be 3-1, as costly mistakes have done them in two weeks in a row. In a loss to Miami two weeks ago, the Bills were in a position to win that game but coughed it up late when they were driving for the winning score. They turned the ball over three times against the Jets last week and that did them in once again. Now their stock is way down but they’re a formidable foe against any team that has trouble moving the ball and the Patriots are definitely in that category. Outside of wins against arguably the two worst defenses in the business, San Fran and Denver, the Patriots have stayed under 20 points in every game. They scored 17 on the Chiefs, 19 on the Jets, 13 on the Dolphins, 10 on the Chargers and finally 15 on the Colts last week. In fact, it’s safe to say that this is the toughest defense they’ll face to date and if they can’t score on those aforementioned teams, how the hell are they going to rack up points against the defense they’ll face here? Hell, the Patriots do not have a notable win all year, as their victories have come against the Jets, KC, St. Louis (barely), Denver and San Fran. New England is an ugly 5-3 and they’ve absolutely played the NFL’s easiest schedule. Frankly, they haven’t shown me a damn thing to warrant trusting them as a 3½-point favorite over a quality team like the Bills. I’m calling the Bills outright but will accept the points because should the Bills score the first TD, this one will be in the bank. Play: Buffalo +3½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
MIAMI –8 over Seattle
Anyone who thinks that Bill Parcells is overrated or isn’t “all that” needs their head examined. Every team he touches turns to gold, as he accomplishes in one year what other GM’s or coaches can’t accomplish in five. Long ago, he turned the Giants, a team that is today’s equivalent of the Raiders, into monsters and they’ve been contenders ever since. He did the same thing with the Patriots and when Dallas was sinking he rejuvenated them too. Parcells has now done the same thing with the Dolphins in about seven months and while eight points is a lot, these Dolphins are worthy of the spot against a west coast team traveling east. The Seahawks are a complete mess both offensively and defensively and what’s interesting about the Seahawks this season is that Mike Holmgren is leaving after the season ends. That puts him in a position to do things he normally wouldn’t do because he has nothing to lose. Neither does the players because they don’t have to impress him and with a record of 2-6 and the season virtually over, one has to question what will motivate this intruder. They’re playing for nothing and it’s like attending class with a substitute teacher in there. They don’t have to be on their best behavior because the teacher will be gone tomorrow. The Dolphins, meanwhile, can’t wait to get back on the field and keep this train rolling, as they’re winning, they have a chance to win the division or go to the playoffs. No way will they allow this disinterested Seahawk bunch to travel across the country, come in here and give them a scare. Play: Miami –8 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
DUNKEL
Dallas at LA Clippers
The Mavericks look to bounce back from Friday's loss to Denver and take advantage of a Clippers' team that has lost six straight, five by double figures. Dallas is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4).
Game 501-502: Toronto at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 117.124; Charlotte 118.658
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 1 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+3 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Utah at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 124.256; New York 114.842
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 9 1/2; 202 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 4; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-4); Under
Game 505-506: Dallas at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.609; LA Clippers 110.122
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 9 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Under
Game 507-508: Boston at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 124.716; Detroit 124.797
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+2); Over
Game 509-510: Atlanta at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.745; Oklahoma City 113.864
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5; 183
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5); Under
Game 511-512: Memphis at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 110.812; Denver 121.951
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 11; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8 1/2); Under
Game 513-514: Golden State at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 115.240; Sacramento 113.945
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 1; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 4; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+4); Under
Game 515-516: Houston at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.542; LA Lakers 130.747
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 190
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7 1/2; 188
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-7 1/2); Over
NHL DUNKEL
Calgary at Chicago
Off to their best start since 2001-02, the Blackhawks will look to stay undefeated at home (4-0-2) against a Calgary team that has lost two straight on the road. Chicago is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-160).
Game 1-2: Atlanta at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.013; Carolina 13.022
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-200); Over
Game 3-4: Calgary at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.211; Chicago 13.445
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-160); Over
Game 5-6: Edmonton at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.085; New Jersey 12.087
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-120); Under
Game 7-8: San Jose at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.363; Phoenix 13.395
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+120); Under
Game 9-10: Florida at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 9.994; Anaheim 12.153
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-230); Over
NFL
Game 211-212: Jacksonville at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.969; Detroit 125.082
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+6 1/2); Over
Game 213-214: Tennessee at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 140.611; Chicago 136.122
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Over
Game 215-216: Buffalo at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.459; New England 135.267
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3 1/2); Over
Game 217-218: New Orleans at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.435; Atlanta 132.252
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1); Under
Game 219-220: St. Louis at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.959; NY Jets 134.184
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 12; 48
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-9); Over
Game 221-222: Seattle at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 126.132; Miami 131.082
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 39
Vegas Line: Miami by 8 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+8 1/2); Under
Game 223-224: Green Bay at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.665; Minnesota 134.747
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2); Over
Game 225-226: Carolina at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.669; Oakland 122.700
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 13; 34
Vegas Line: Carolina by 9 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-9 1/2); Under
Game 227-228: Kansas City at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 121.031; San Diego 137.807
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 17; 51
Vegas Line: San Diego by 15 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-15 1/2); Over
Game 229-230: Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.391; Pittsburgh 141.040
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); N/A
Game 231-232: NY Giants at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 140.970; Philadelphia 140.775
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Over
Game 235-236: Baltimore at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.240; Houston 132.226
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1; 42
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1); Over
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10
Game 233-234: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 122.451; Arizona 135.853
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 13 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-9 1/2); Over
Tom Stryker
HOUSTON (-) over Baltimore
Yes, Baltimore does enter this AFC war off a rare road win. However, even counting that victory at Cleveland, the Ravens are a dismal 9-22 SU and ATS in their last 31 on foreign soil including a shocking 0-10 ATS in this role priced as a favorite or an underdog of +2 or less and I’ll go against them here.
One of my strongest NFL systems going against the Black Birds too! Since 1980, NFL non-division road teams are a soft 33-59 ATS provided they won straight up priced as a division road dog of +3 or more in their last game. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that sports a won/loss percentage less than .500, this situation slips to a stiff 11-23-1 ATS. Baltimore fits the general part of this angle and the tightener.
It will certainly help that Houston gets to play this game at home. In their own backyard matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up win, the Texans are a respectable 14-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games. Equally impressive, at home coming off a straight up loss and sporting a losing record, Houston has been a tough out for opposing teams notching a sterling 17-9-2 ATS mark.
With starting quarterback Matt Schaub on the shelf with a knee, Houston will turn to back up Sage Rosenfels to get the job done. Last year, Rosenfels posted wins in four of five starts filling in for Schaub and nearly directed an upset of Indianapolis in his lone start this season. Look for the Texans to rally around him and pick up a huge victory. Take Houston!
Tom Freese
Golden St at Sacramento
Sacramento is 5-0 ATS their last 5 home games and they are 6-1 ATS off a straight up win. The Kings are 8-2 ATS when playing with one day of rest and they are 6-2 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Golden St is 2-8 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game an they are 2-6 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS away vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 0-4 ATS vs. Pacific Division teams. PLAY SACRAMENTO -
Scott Rickenbach
Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis
The Steelers have a fantastic defense. There is no denying that. However, the Steelers are coming off of a huge Monday night win at Washington and it will be interesting to see how much their defense has left in the tank for another tough match-up and this one comes on a short week. As for the Colts, their defense has left a lot to be desired. They are coming off of a big Sunday night win over the Patriots but the Colts defense did not look good even though the Patriots only scored 15 points in the game. New England moved the ball very, very well against the Colts and Indianapolis was quite fortunate to escape with the win. Even though Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in Monday night’s game, the Steelers Byron Leftwich came in and looked solid. Also, the fact that RB Willie Parker came back as well as the return of WR Santonio Holmes certainly helped the Steelers in the “offensive threat” department. They will most certainly be able to move the ball against a porous Colts defense that simply can’t stop teams from moving the ball on them. The damage done by the Patriots on Sunday night certainly could have been a lot worse. On the flip side of this match-up, even though the Steelers have a very solid defense, they will be tested here. The Colts offense had Joseph Addai back on Sunday night and, with each game he gets under his belt, Peyton Manning seems closer and closer to returning to being the Peyton of old! With both of these teams off big wins against tough teams, and games where each defense was focused on bringing their “A game”, it is only natural that there will be a “let up” this week and that “let up” will allow the offenses to perform better than many be expecting here. It’s tough to keep the defensive intensity and it’s highest level in back to back weeks and we forecast a slip up here and we’ll take advantage of the fact that a rather low number is likely to be posted on the total in this game!
Big Al McMordie
Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears
Play:Chicago Bears +3/-119
At 1 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Chicago Bears plus the points over Tennessee. The Titans are fortunate to be undefeated at 8-0 this year. Last week, Tennessee survived a miserable performance by its mediocre QB, Kerry Collins, and bested Green Bay 19-16 in overtime. Indeed, if the Packers had not lost the coin toss, Tennessee most likely would have been tagged with its first setback of the season. Now, Tennessee must travel to Soldier Field to battle another NFC North team, and the Bears could easily also be 8-0 with just a little luck. They've lost three games (to Tampa, Atlanta and Carolina), but led each of those games late in the 4th quarter. Look for Chicago to not blow any leads today. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Bob Balfe
Houston +1 over Baltimore
The Ravens are banged up bigtime in their secondary. Houston has a ton of weapons on offense at home today. The Ravens have a young QB who will struggle on the road with not too many offensive weapons. McGahee is still a bit banged up for the Ravens and I do not see this unit scoring much today. Look for Houston to get a big home win.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +9.5
Last week’s home loss to the Atlanta Falcons has not inspired any confidence in the Raiders from odds makers this week as they have listed Oakland as the 9.5-point underdog against another NFC South team. That other team is the first place Carolina Panthers who will be trying not to fall on the road for the third straight time this season.
The Panthers will be going after their third straight win when they take the field in Oakland this Sunday. The 6-2 Panthers entered last week’s bye off a pair of home wins. Their last win over Arizona, rallying from a two-touchdown deficit for a 27-23 win on Oct. 26th was particularly impressive. The Panthers have the second-best mark in the NFC behind the 7-1 New York Giants and could be tied for the best mark this week if they are able to win and the Giants go down in Philly
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Titans/Bears OVER 38.5
I know we have a pair of solid defensive teams facing off here, but these teams have also been playing good offensive football and are not getting respected for it with this line. While the Bears have been solid at stopping the run, their pass defense has struggled. Tennessee is 15-4 OVER vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992. We have seen an average of 51.3 ppg put on the board in these spots. Chicago is also 18-4 OVER in home lined games over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 OVER in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Orton may be out but Grossman has started quite a few games in this league so it's not like the Bears are just throwing a youngster to the Wolves. The Bears should still be able to move the football. Also, both defenses are known to make big plays which will also augment the score. We'll bet the OVER for 1 unit this week.
Today's Free Pick - Maddux Sports -
Today's Free Pick is Oakland +9.5
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Charlies Sports -
nfl free pick for november 9, 2008. packers+3 @ vikings.
packers cover +3
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SportsAction365.com
FREE NFL FOOTBALL WINNER
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
Prediction: UNDER 40
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NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS -
FREE NFL PICKS
Carolina @ Oakland
Pick: Carolina -9.5
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