Sunday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Game: Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Miami Dolphins

The Raiders played great defensively last week. However, the offense did absolutely nothing and the team suffered a very tough pointspread loss. Now they travel to the East Coast to play a game with a 1:00 ET kickoff, a situation that hasn't been kind to them. Indeed, the last time the Raiders played an "early" game, they got smoked 29-10 at Baltimore and the previous time they got crushed 34-3 at New Orleans. The Raiders, who remain heavily penalized have nothing to play for, and its generally tougher to play for "pride" on the road than it is at home. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are in the middle of a dogfight in the extremely competitive AFC East. The Dolphins are 30-11-1 ATS their last 42 games against teams from the AFC West and they should be able to win this one convincingly. Consider laying the points.

LT Profits

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 38.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the best defenses in all of football, and they have been downright impenetrable at home. The Minnesota will still try and run the ball with Adrian Peterson though, which will result in some time consuming drive that are conducive to an Under.

In reality, the Vikings have no choice but to run the ball often, because if they cannot run, it would make immobile quarterback Gus Frerotte a sitting duck for the lethal Tampa Bay pass rush.

Sure, the Buccaneers are allowing a miniscule 10.8 points and 69.0 rushing yards per game at home, but by the same token, Peterson will be the best running back they will have faced this season. While we do not expect AP to have a huge day against the devastating Tampa Bay unit, we do expect him to churn out some first downs just on his brilliant ability alone.

However, we do expect the Bucs to stiffen in the red zone and force the Vikings to settle for field goals. As a result, we do feel that Tampa Bay will have a lead of more than a touchdown at some point, and that is when Coach Jon Gruden usually turns ultra-conservative, turning the game over to his great defense.

We do not expect anything different here, so look for a relatively low scoring affair.

Pick: Vikings, Buccaneers Under 38.5

Totals 4U

Ravens @ Giants

The Ravens continued their 4-game stretch of racking up big points against poor defenses (36.0 points per versus Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, and Texans) last week, crushing Houston 41-13 and now face their toughest test of the season for 6’6” 230 rookie QB Joe Flacco (151 of 243 for 1449 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT). Little could be more important to this kid’s success than his offensive line and it will be a man down this trip. Coach John Harbaugh most often uses a 6-man unbalanced line to protect Flacco (17 sacks) and bash the ball on the ground but RT Willie Anderson left in the 3rd quarter against the Texans with a ankle injury which slides 6th lineman 6’8” 330 RT Adam Terry into his slot. There’s nothing wrong with Terry – he was the protected starter before Baltimore picked up Anderson – but that likely eliminates the 6-man line or puts either 6’4” 310 UTEP rookie T/G Oniel Cousins or 6’6” 315 Weber State rookie David Hale in the game against a level of competition they have never faced. Either way, rushing the ball will primarily be the focus and Running Backs Coach Wilbert Montgomery has a dynamite trio that can all produce on the ground and sneaking out for short passed. Willis McGahee (125 for 463 yards and 5 TD rush, 14 for 113 receive), 5’8” 205 rookie Ray Rice (77 for 356 rush, 20 for 190 receive), and 6’1”250 rookie Le’Ron McClain (96 for 366 and 5 TD rush, 15 for 88 receive) rotate for an offense that grinds out the league’s 3rd-best 150.2 rush yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry. Quaterbacks Coach Hue Jackson has done a phenomenal job with not just Flacco but also Troy Smith and Todd Bouman but stretching the field just hasn’t been part of the plan. WR Mark Clayton (20 for 225 yards and TD) and WR Derrick Mason (46 for 598 and 2 TD) – who returned to the game to catch 3 balls after suffering a 1st quarter separated shoulder against the Texans – have had to share the balls with the backs while TE Todd Heap (18 for 195 and 2 TD) has been used primarily in the blocking game as a 7th lineman. It seems a waste for a talent like Heap but he did finally have his first big game of the season last week, grabbing 5 balls for 58 yards and his first 2 scores of 2008.

As lacking in big plays as Baltimore’s offense has been, the defense has piled them up. 19 sacks, 14 interceptions, 6 fumble recoveries, and 3 touchdowns can keep a crew in most games and are certainly enough to win against the bad defenses they have faced the last month. Then decision was finally made this week to place both SS Dawan Landry and LCB Chris McAlister on the IR with knee injuries which is actually a plus because neither has played in weeks and were just taking up roster spots. 5’8” 186 SS Jim Leonard (36 T, S) has outplayed his size alongside 5’11” 200 FS Ed Reed (21 T) while the cornerback trio of 5’11” 196 Frank Walker (23 T, I), 5’11” 180 Fabian Washington (16 T), and 5’9” 190 Corey Ivy (33 T, S) have pieced together the rest of the unit in place of McAlister and 6’0” 175 RCB Samari Rolle (6 T, 2 I) who missed time earlier in the season. The obvious question is with this overall lack of size, just who the hell is going to cover the 6’5” 232 Burress, 6’3” 203 Toomer, and 6’6” 253 Boss? Pressure on the pocket will be all the more critical this week and the front line of Baltimore’s 3-4 defense is dynamite. 6’5” 290 LDE Trevor Pryce (17 T, 4 S), 6’3” 310 NT Justin Bannan (27 T, S, INT), and 6’4” 345 RDE Haloti Ngata (27 T, S, 2 INT) does much more than hold the point. This group also gets to the quarterback themselves better than most from threes plus bat a ton of balls that have racked 3 picks by the line plus a pair each by ROLB Terrell Suggs (39 T, 5 S, 2 INT) and LILB Ray Lewis (63 T, S, 2 INT). RILB Bart Scott (41 T, S) and LOLB Jarret Johnson (34 T, 2 S) have been solid but also keep your eye out for 6’1” 250 Syracuse rookie OLB Jameel McClain (9 T, 2 S) who has demonstrated he has real outside skill for a guy that has an inside build. By the numbers, the Ravens allow 16.7 points (#5 NFL) on 258.4 yards (#2) per game with just 65.4 of those yard coming on the ground at 2.9 yards per carry with only a single rushing TD surrendered through 9 games.

New York (8-1) The Giants pounded the Eagles into submission Sunday night, 36-21, with 219 rushing yards as 4.9 yards per carry in a dominating performance by the offensive line of Diehl, Seubert, O’Hara, Snee, and McKenzie (11 sacks for the year) who allowed Jim Johnson defense only a single sacks while getting flagged not one time. That makes 4 games in which New York has surpassed the 200 yard mark through 9 games and a tip of the hat must also go to receivers Plaxico Burress (32 for 407 and 4 TD), Domenik Hixon (13 for 220 and TD), Amani Toomer (29 for 356 and 2 TD), and Steve Smith (35 for 340 and TD) plus TE Kevin Boss (19 for 217 and 4 TD) who unquestionably block downfield better than any group in the National Football League. Behind these cats, bruisers 6’4” 264 RB Brandon Jacobs (153 for 806 and 9 TD) and 5’11” 228 Derrick Ward (89 for 490 and TD rush, 23 for 212 receive) led by extremely physical 6’3” 266 Madison Hedgecock have been given the extra stride to unload on defenders, often creating reach-tacking come the second half. Mix in a speedy kid like 5’9” 198 2nd-year back Ahmad Bradshaw (36 for 205 and TD) and big plays are inevitable. With the league’s #1 ground attack at 168.9 yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry, it’s a wonder why Coach Tom Coughlin even bothers to throw and with Eli Manning at the trigger it’s clearly a second option. Ok, Manning (170 of 281 for 1926 yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) has won his share of fans but who couldn’t succeed in this situation? With 64 games in the career books, kid brother has completed 1154 passes in 2077 attempts for 13, 245 yards with 91 scores and 70 picks. That’s basically 4 full regular seasons with average 16-game marks of 288 of 519 (55.5% completion rate) for 3311 yards with 22.8 TD versus 17.5 INT and an overall passer rating of 75.5. Pretty pedestrian behind this kind of rushing game and the single weakness that opponents have a chance to exploit. By the numbers, New York’s offense piles up 29.1 points (#2 NFL) on 347.7 yards (#4) per game.

Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuola’s group is our selection from the best in pro football. The numbers of 17.8 points (#6 NFL) on 264.8 yards (#3) per game may indicate that as a slight exaggeration but watching this crew play, you can’t help but surmise that the Giant stoppers can crank it down any time they wish and in a playoff situation we suspect you would see this unit play at a gear that other good defenses just don’t have. Up front, the foursome of 6’5” 274 LDE Justin Tuck (39 T, 8 S, 2 FF), 6’4” 306 LDT Barry Cofield (24 T, 2 S), 6’4” 317 RDT Fred Robbins (21 T, 6 S), and 6’5” 265 RDE Mathias Kiwanuka (26 T, 6 S) plus backups DT Jay Alford (6 T, 2 S) and DE Dave Tollefson (15 T, 4 S) are the most productive bunch in the country, racking up 28 of the team’s 32 sacks, and getting 10 from the tackle position shows what double-teaming gets you. SLB Danny Clark (37 T) and MLB Antonio Pierce (47 T, 2 S, 2 FF) have been free to roam behind this wall while backup Chase Blackburn (27 T, S) has been sharp in rotation and 6’2” 237 BYU rookie OLB Bryan Kehl has impressed all with his speed to the ball in relief of WLB Gerris Wilkinson (8 T) with 27 stops plus an interception. If you get past the front 7, don’t expect to play patty-cake with a bunch of self-styled “athletes” and “entertainers”. The New York defensive backfield can flat-out shake your teeth loose. 6’2” 210 Miami-Florida rookie S Kenny Phillips (40 T, INT) got his first start last week in place of 6’3” 215 James Butler (37 T, 2 INT) against the Eagles and finished 2nd on the team with 5 solo tackles. He will play alongside 6’2” 207 S Michael Johnson (37 T, 2 INT) to provide major punch across the middle. Little corners? Not a chance! LCB Aaron Ross (36 T) and RCB Corey Webster (25 T, S, 3 INT) measure in at 6’0” 197 and 6’0” 202 – big enough to play safety on most squads. Not much depth? Guess again! Try veteran players like DB’s Sam Madison, Sammy Knight, and RW McQuarters to fill out the nickel and dime. Offensive coordinators must feel like Sisyphus, but in reality he was cursed to ceaselessly roll his rock up the hill for eternity while opponents only must face this mountain for the 26 minutes and 36 seconds per game that the Giants allow you to hold the rock.

SELECTION: Playing a defending Super Bowl Champion against the spread has rarely been a great 16-game strategy but just who is going to beat the Giants when they don’t want to be beaten? Not the Ravens and not this Sunday. Take New York –6 ½.

Mike Wynn

Denver @ Atlanta

Can’t help but be impressed with the rookie QB Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons this season. Atlanta 6-3 this season and they’re taking care of business at home with a 4-0 straight and ATS record this season. Atlanta just one game back of Carolina in the very competitive NFC South and a win here Sunday would be another big step toward a possible playoff spot. Denver Broncos on the other hand lead the weak AFC West with a 5-4 record but they’ve had to ride the arm of Jay Cutler and his 2616 yards of passing offense this season. So let’s take a look at both teams and we’ll start with the visiting Broncos.As I mentioned earlier the Broncos are 5-4 and leading the AFC West, but they certainly haven’t been a dominant team by any stretch of the imagination. Broncos defense the fourth worst in all the NFL allowing 390 yards per game this season, which has translated into nearly 28 points per game. Teams have had a field day running the ball against Denver as they’ve given up an average of 146 yards per game this season, and a whopping 195 on the road. But as bad as the defense has been the offense has been nearly as good. Denver scoring nearly 25 points per game this year and the offense begins and ends with Jay Cutler. Broncos rank first overall in offense in the AFC and first in passing. Cutler has been outstanding this season racking up 2616 yards through the air this season, and throwing 18 touchdown passes. Wide Receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal have been the beneficiaries with 57 & 52 catches each this season. Denver running game is a M.A.S.H. unit right now. Broncos have brought back Tatum Bell this week to help with the depleted running back corps. With Pittman, Torain, and Young out, the Broncos will rely on Peyton Hillis as their primary ball carrier. Hillis has just 11 carries this season for 38 yards, so to say the running game is suspect, is an understatement. If Denver is going to win they need the defense to step up big and they need Cutler to have a big game as well.Atlanta Falcons have no such problems in the running game like Denver does. The two-headed RB tandem of Turner & Norwood bring a big physical style of running that can wear down a defense like the Broncos if they can’t get off the field. Turner is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and Norwood 5.6 per, and it’s just what the doctored ordered for the rookie QB Matt Ryan. A big running game takes a lot of pressure off and Ryan has done as well you could expect a rookie QB to do. Ryan is completing about 60% of his passes and the 11 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio is solid. Atlanta offense is scoring 23.4 points per game this season and at home the number jumps dramatically to 32 points per contest, which is a big reason why the Falcons are still perfect at home both straight up and ATS. Atlanta defense does leave a bit to be desired however, as the Falcons rank twenty-third in the league giving up 346.7 yards per game this season. All and all Falcon fans have to be pleased with the way this team is playing and they’ll certainly be a factor down the stretch this season. Checking on the trends and tidbits for this game we find that Shanahan is a terrific 13-5 ATS road dog when the line is 3½-7 points, but the Broncos are just 8-18 ATS in all games played over the last 2 seasons. Falcons are dismal 26-44 ATS off a home win since 1992 and it gets even worse to 1-11 ATS if the win was by 10 points or more. With Denver’s lack of a running game you got to believe they’ll air it out here and I like this one to get over the total of 51 points. Denver defense will have a real tough time against the Falcon rush attack and both teams figure to put up significant numbers today. Denver a reliable 19-7 over in all games the last 2 seasons and a tremendous 10-1 over as an underdog over that same span. This game sets up to be high scoring and I don’t think they’ll disappoint us. Take this game over the total on Sunday.

Nevada Sharpshooter

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

The Bears travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. The 5-4 Bears may are currently tied with the Vikings atop the NFC North with the Pack one game back at 4-5. Both teams have some injury issues. At the time I am writing this it is unclear if QB Kyle Orton will be able to play for the Bears and the Packers LB Nick Barnett is out for the season do to injury. Statiscally both of these teams appear to be average. The Bears can stop the run but struggle against the pass. Two weeks ago Chicago barely got by a horrible Lions team by a score of 27-23, before losing to a strong Tennessee team at home 21-14 last week. The Packers have lost their last two games both on the road, to Tennessee, 16-19 in OT and the Vikings last week 27-28 when they missed a 52 yard fg in the final minute. The Pack lost both games in the same fashion, they were unable to stop the running game in the 4th quarter.

In this game I like the Pack to get back on track at home. Chicago’s running game is not as strong as Tennessee’s or Minnesota’s and I believe QB Aaron Rodgers will be able to move the ball though the air vs the Bear defense. The Bear offense will suffer with either a banged up Orton or a turnover prone Grossman at the helm. Take the Pack -4 over the Bears as they jump out early and take Chicago out of the running game

Dr. Vegas

Titans vs Jaguars

It’s hard to ignore the Titans’ 9-0 record. And what’s even more impressive is that that isn’t their best stat. Their 8-1 ATS mark is a huge indicator of the lack of respect Vegas has shown this team. With the exception of their 9-point line going into KC, the Titans have entered the rest of their games as small favorites (or even a dog or pk) of less than 5 points. This is despite the fact that they are winning their games outright by over 11 points per game. Moreover, they are covering the point spread but over 8 points per game.

Yet here they sit, facing a team that is 4-5 straight up and 3-6 against the spread, favored by a mere 3 points. The argument for Jacksonville to cover this game has some validity. They are approaching the “absolutely must win” phase. To have a shot at the playoffs, they will need to essentially run the table for the next month. Bringing down a behemoth like the Titans could give them the confidence and inspiration to do just that.

The first time these two teams faced was in the season opener on September 7. It’s funny to see now, but the Jags were favored by three on the road in Nashville. The Titans got the job done, winning 17-10 and held Jacksonville to only 33 rushing yards. Despite their win, the Titans showed no signs they would win their next 8. It was a close game to the end, with late scores by both teams.

And thus has been the case for the entire season with Tennessee. Every week Vegas expects their run to end. Every week Vegas thinks their opponent needs to win more than they do. And so far, every week (except one half-point ats loss) Vegas has been wrong.

Jacksonville needs to win. And Tennessee has to lose sometime, right? A loss wouldn’t affect them at all at this point. Vegas is sure banking on it. I’m not.

Take Tennessee -3 over Jacksonville.

Razor Sharp Sports

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

At the beginning of the season, you wouldn’t have had a very tough time convincing me that this could be very well be a preview of the AFC Championship game. The season hasn’t quite played out that way and now you would have a incredibly tough time sell me that same statement. The Steelers side of things would be the easier of the two halfs to convince me on, but the San Diego Chargers may be the biggest disappointment in the NFL so far this year. Still as disappointing as they have been, they are still just a game out of their division lead and the wildcard. So this week, this game may have lost a little of its luster, but it is still very important for both teams. Lets take a look at each of them.

First we have the San Diego Chargers. Heading into the year, you were looking at a team with quite possibly the best all-around player in the league in RB LaDainian Tomlinson. You had one of the best young arms at QB in Phillip Rivers, The best TE in all of football in Antonio Gates and one of the best defenses around with Shaun Merriman, Antonio Cromartie and Company. Now here we are in week 11 and they are just 4-5 and are coming off a 1 point victory over one of the worst football in the NFL in Kansas City and that was on a missed two-point conversion in the final minute. Offensively, they haven’t gotten the production out of Tomlinson that they have in the past. He has run for just 629 yards and just 4 TDs. They have gotten good production through the air. Rivers has completed over 65% of his passes for 2354 yards. He has thrown 21 TDs and just 8 ints. His QB rating is 1st in the NFL. Rivers has found TE Antonio Gates a team leading 38 times for 469 yards and 6 TDs. The real problem for the Chargers have been on the other side of the ball. This once top-ranked defense ranks 26th in yards allowed and 21st on points allowed. The loss of Merriman for the season due to a knee injury has hurt tremendously.

The Steelers have been one of those teams that you start putting them among the elite and then they get beat. They start 5-1 and have a big match-up against the Super Bowl Champion Giants and lose, but then they bounce back at Washington. Then they lose a big game at home against Indianapolis. There is one thing that has been the key to keeping the Steelers from rising to the top and that has been injury. RB Willie Parker has played in just 4 games. His back-up Rashard Mendenhall was lost for the season after 4 games and QB Ben Roethlisberger has been knocked out of games and continues to battle, while playing hurt. Roethlisberger’s numbers have been less than impressive. Dealing with injury, he has completed just 60% of his passes for 1686 yards 10 TDs and 11 ints. Unlike the Chargers, the Steelers defense is the reason they are winning. This team is 1st in the NFL in yards per game allowed at 240 yds/game and is 3rd in points with 140. They are just as tough on the ground or through the air. They are 2nd in Rush defense and 1st in pass defense.

Looking at these two teams and I expect the defenses to shine. The Steeler defense has been their all year and a banged up Steeler offense will be slowed down by an athletic Charger unit that hasn’t played up to their potential this year yet.Take the San Diego/Pittsburgh game UNDER the total of 43.

Cajun Sports

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Over 50.5

The boys from the Big Easy take their air show on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Before the season began many had this Saints team contending for the NFC South title but their inability to win on the road and inconsistent play has them looking up from the bottom of the division.

The Saints lost at Atlanta 34-20 last Sunday to fall to 0-4 on the road this season. They defeated San Diego 37-32 in London on Oct. 26, although they were considered the home team.

Drew Brees leads the NFL's top-ranked offense, which is gaining 422.2 yards per game. He's on pace to throw for a record-setting 5,309 yards. Brees has thrown for 1,290 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions in four road games compared to 1,695 yards, 13 TDs and four picks in five home contests.

Drew Brees and the Saints will face off against a Chiefs defense that has been decimated by injuries, as linebackers Derrick Johnson and Pat Thomas and defensive end Brian Johnston are listed as out for this game.

The Chiefs are allowing 420 yards per game on the defensive side of the ball. Their rush defense is giving up 202 yards per game on 6 yards per carry while their pass defense is allowing 218 yards passing per game and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Not good news when facing a Saints offense that leads the league with over 420 yards of offense per game.

Kansas City is coming off another tough loss, 20-19 at San Diego last Sunday that came a week after a 30-27 overtime loss to Tampa Bay.

While the Chiefs have lost five straight since a 33-19 victory over Denver on Sept. 28 and have one victory in their last 18 games, the offense has been solid thanks to Thigpen's surprising play.

Thigpen threw for 128 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in his first start, but has passed for 710 yards, six TDs and no picks in his last three.

Chiefs RB Larry Johnson returned Monday after being suspended for violating the league's personal conduct policy. His return should help improve the Chiefs offensive play, in their lone win he rushed for 198 yards and two touchdowns.

The Saints are 29-7-1 Over on the road after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Saints are 15-2 Over as a road favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Saints are 15-3 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Saints are 10-0 Over when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road and the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Saints are 13-3 Over as a road favorite. The Saints are 13-4 Over on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.

The Chiefs are 16-4 Over as a dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Chiefs are 12-2 Over as a dog when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Chiefs are 13-2 Over as a home dog versus any team with more wins after playing on the road.

NFL teams are 71-33-4 Over when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. NFL teams are 48-17-2 Over as a favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. NFL teams are 47-25-2 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. NFL teams are 23-9-1 Over at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog. NFL teams are 20-7 Over as a home dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog.

With strong technical and fundamental support we will make the “Over” in the Saints / Chiefs match up our 2* NFL FREE Total Play of the Week.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* New Orleans / Kansas City OVER 50.5

Alex Smart

Miami Dolphins -10.0

The Oakland Raiders enter into this tilt against the Miami Dolphins playing some very inconsistent football behind , interim coach Tom Cable. The Dolphins on the other hand have won 3 in a row, under HC Sparano .

The Raiders offense has looked horrendous this season behind the lack of a stable pivot, as JaMarcus Russell, continues to suffer from tendinitis in his knee. The Raider QB and his ugly passing attack are ranked dead last in the league, averaging just 139.2 YPG. Needless to say, the Raiders offense becomes very easy to read , because of their one way ground game. Look for the Dolphins front 7 to play a nickel formation, and stack the box , as they dare the Raiders to throw the ball. (It must be noted that the Raiders have scored an average of just 12.6 PPG)

Meanwhile, the Dolphins behind a a lot of exotic looks out of wild cat formation, will use Tailbacks Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams , to give a stable, but over worked Raiders defense all they can handle on their way to some big runs , gains and scores.

Last year Oakland went into Miami and beat up the Fins by a lopsided 35-17 count . Now its pay back time , as the Dolphins get revenge in merciless fashion.

Projected score: Miami 28 Oakland 10

Ted Sevransky

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans -2.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars looked great last week, beating up on Detroit 38-14. Prior to the game, the money poured in on the Lions – the betting marketplace was convinced that Jack Del Rio’s squad was beset with internal turmoil. Rather than falling apart in Detroit, however, the Jags pulled together, earning their first win of the year by more than a touchdown.

This week, the betting marketplace seems to think that all of the Jaguars problems are solved. The money has poured in on Jacksonville, as bettors are looking for the Jags to end the Titans perfect season. Clearly, these bettors have paid no attention to recent history. Let’s start with this key fact --- Jacksonville has no homefield edge whatsoever. The Jags are 0-fer the season against the spread at home, losing as a favorite in straight up fashion in three of their four home games.

Then, we must consider this fact -- Everybody looks great when they play the Lions. There’s a reason that Detroit is 0-9, looking at the NFL’s first winless season since 1976 square in the face. But we’ve seen a very dramatic pattern for teams AFTER they face the NFL’s weakest team. These teams have been overvalued in the betting marketplace after looking so good against Detroit, unable to step up in class against a ‘real’ opponent. The numbers don’t lie. The first eight teams to beat Detroit went 0-8 against the spread in their next ballgame. That, folks, is an under-the-radar angle that is surely worth riding once again here.

Tennessee isn’t a ‘sexy’ undefeated team like the Patriots (16-0 in the regular season) were last year or the Colts in ’05 (13-0 start) and ’06 (9-0 start). There’s no Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on Tennessee. The Titans don’t score 40 points against anybody; they don’t have a household name on the roster; and they don’t even have any fantasy studs. The Titans aren’t sexy, but they are efficient – all they do is win, much like they did earlier in the Jeff Fisher era when the Titans were routinely earning a significant profit for their supporters on an annual basis. In a game where a SU win should equal a pointspread cover, I’m quite comfortable backing the team that is finding ways to win, as opposed to the squad that has lost four different games by less than a touchdown in the last eight weeks. Take Tennessee.

Bryan Leonard

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Tennessee Titans -2.5

The Titans are the only undefeated team in the league and they continue to be overlooked. The same thing happened when they faced the Rams in the Super Bowl year, they won but they did so without any fanfare. That's exactly as coach Fisher wants it, stay under the radar and just win, win, win. Now the betting public is lining up in droves to back a Jacksonville team that has underperformed all season. And the reason, a blowout win over the winless Lions. Teams who are off a game with the Lions this year are winless against the spread. Detroit has a way of making everyone look better and the public is now buying into this Jacksonville team despite the fact they are simply not playing well. Coming out of their bye week the Jags lost to both Cleveland and previously winless Cincinnati. So in the last three weeks they are 1-2 against teams with a combined record of 4-23 with half of those four wins coming at the expense of Jacksonville. The Jags are just 1-3 straight up and 0-4 ATS playing at home this year. Tennessee on the other hand is perfect on the road winning by an average of 13 points per game. Sure the Titans win ugly, but they win which is more than what we can say for the Jags.PLAY TENNESSEE

Wild Bill

Miami -10 1/2 (5 units)
Ravens +6 1/2 (5 units)
Jacksonville +2 1/2 (5 units)
Packers -4 (5 units)
Eagles -9 (5 units)
Minnesota-Tampa BayOver 39 1/2 (5 units)
Rams +3 1/2 (5 units)
Redskins +1 1/2 (5 units)
Buffalo -4 1/2 (5 units)

Max Prophet

St. Louis Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

Finally a game the 49ers can win! After a valiant and almost successful game at Arizona Monday night the 49ers have found a good quarterback in Shaun Hill-back up to O'Sullivan. A new coach Mike Singletary and a renewed hope for the fans in San Francisco. St.Louis has lost to teams like Kansas city and Seattle and their bombing at New York last week 47-3 was right off the radar. The Rams are ranked 31 in offense and 30 in defense. 49ers are ranked 21 in offense and 22 in defense. Take the side on the 49ers.

Chris Jordan

I’ve got my keys and am ready to drive to the winners circle in a revamped Cadillac. So are the Buccaneers, by the way, as Cadillac Williams should be back on the field and ready to run wild in the nick of time. And why not, since the most talked about running back in Tampa Bay this weekend will be Adrian Peterson – and not Williams.

I expect Cadillac to mark his territory by leaving tread marks on the Vikings’ defense, in what is a must-win situation for the Buccaneers as well. After all, Tampa and the Falcons are a game and a half behind first-place Carolina, and we all know how explosive the Saints offense can become, making this a four-horse race in the NFC South with four thoroughbreds.

With Tampa coming off a bye week, coach Jon Gruden and his coaches spent most of the time self-scouting, looking to heal the weaker tendencies with his team, which in turn should force the opposition to play the Buccaneers’ pace and style rather than the other way around.

Looking inside the betting numbers, the Buccaneers are on ATS runs of 4-1 versus teams with a winning record, 5-2 after a bye week, 9-4 at home and 11-2 in their Week 11 games.

On the other hand, the Vikes are mired in ATS skids of 2-6 versus the NFC, 1-4 on the road, 0-6 after a straight-up win and 3-9 overall.

Tampa has covered four of the last five meetings, and is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times it has hosted the Vikings. Lay the chalk in this one.

2♦ BUCCANEERS

This is a must-win for the Steelers – end of story.

The Steelers are 12-0 at home during the regular season against the Chargers and Big Ben Roethlisberger is 24-8 at home. However, the Steelers have dropped consecutive games at Heinz Field, losing to the Giants and Colts. Again – must win to keep the Steelers amongst the playoff talk, and to keep Mike Tomlin off the hot seat.

Since the Steelers have won five of the last six games and lead the all-time series 19-6, confidence will be running high for Pittsburgh, which still has a stingy defense. And it’ll be that stop unit that will make things difficult for the West Coast, warm-weather Chargers in what should be frigid conditions in Steeltown.

That’s a big deal for this game, because with the offensive units, I believe it comes down to the running backs. And with Willie Parker expected to return to the lineup, and LaDainian Tomlinson traditionally a cold weather recluse, the Steelers clearly have the edge on the ground.

Look, Pittsburgh has suddenly lost two of three, but it’s lost to legitimate playoff contenders – including the defending World Champions. The Chargers have lost five games, and honestly only one of those teams at this point in the season is a legitimate playoff contender, that being Carolina on opening day.

This is San Diego’s third trip to the East since October 26 and fourth since October 5. And this will be the hardest and most physical on the team. Love the Steelers, who have covered five of their last seven following an ATS loss, so lay the chalk.

2♦ STEELERS