Brian Gabrielle
Take Carl Edwards (+250), 1/6th unit. Wow, these are some mighty low odds. I guess Vegas really thinks Edwards is going to win at Homestead. So do I. King Carl dominated the past two times out at the 1.5-mile cookie-cutter tracks of Atlanta and Texas, and while Homestead/Miami doesn't feature exactly the same configuration, it does have similar transitions from its slightly-less-steep turns to its flat straightaways. In other words: loose racecars win. Edwards drives a loose car as well as anyone, and Roush tends to dominate at this track. Given the fact that he's pretty much definitely not going to win the Chase, Edwards can drive free and easy and win this event.
Take Greg Biffle (+600), 1/6th unit.I'll also take The Biff, who won here in '05 and '06 in the old car. Biffle posted top-10 finishes at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte over the past month, and that should carry over very nicely to this race.
Take Kyle Busch (+800), 1/6th unit. Finally, I get the sneaking suspicion maybe we haven't heard the last from the younger Busch, who's quietly been very consistent since starting off the Chase so disastrously. He has to wonder what might have been, but seems to have come out of his shell-shocked condition, having finished fourth, 29th, fifth, sixth and eighth the past five weeks. Did someone mention needing to be able to drive a loose racecar? Busch is the king of heavy-steering tracks, and loves to be right on the edge. He's got a chance Sunday.
SportsInsights
Baltimore Ravens +7 over New York Giants
The Baltimore Ravens are an excellent football squad that will give the New York Giants all they can handle. The Public is overwhelmingly on New York, causing the line to move from Baltimore +6 to +7. Three out of four bets are landing on the mighty Giants. The Giants have been playing unbelievable football and we believe that they are riding high. Too high!
We'll "bet against the Public" and sell the Giants at this over-valued level. Moving from the "key number of 6" all the way to the "key 7" gives us some additional quantifiable value. We'll take the 6-3 Ravens, back the bloated line -- and look for a close game.
Baltimore Ravens +7
Detroit Lions +14 over Carolina Panthers
Long-time readers of the Sports Marketwatch must have seen this play coming! We couldn't resist taking a +14 point underdog. Detroit is horrible. We're taking Detroit and hoping they "suck a little less" this Sunday. Time to "man up" and find out who really believes in "betting against the Public!"
Detroit is the league's only winless team at 0-9. You can't get any lower than that, so there seems to be some value in buying the league's doormat at a low. At the same time, we get to sell the first place Carolina Panthers at a high -- winners of their last three games. Carolina has averaged about 20 points a game, so beating the 14 point spread is a mighty tall order. The line looks like it might increase to +14.5, so shop for the best line.
Detroit Lions +14
Seattle Seahawks +3 over Arizona Cardinals
This game will be the most lopsided-bet game of the weekend. The Public is betting this game like they have an advance copy of Monday's sports page. The sportsbooks are begging the Public to take Arizona -3. A huge 90% of the bets are taking the first place Cardinals. And, why not? Arizona is a first place team at 6-3, while Seattle is a weak 2-7.
We're cashing in on the current media frenzy surrounding Arizona and Kurt Warner. Seattle is a squad that's improving every week. Arizona is a team that is showing weakness. In addition, Seattle QB Hasselbeck is back in the starting line-up. This will help improve Seattle's stagnant offense. We also like this play because of the "home dog" factor -- particularly in a divisional match-up.
Seattle Seahawks +3
Marc Lawrence
Chicago at Green Bay
The Packers took it on the chin twice against the Bears last season, a rare occurrence for a 14-win team against a losing team. Despite those two losses, head coach Mike McCarthy is 11-4 SU and ATS in division games in his NFL career, including 5-0 ATS versus a .450 or greater opponent and 4-0 ATS when off a loss. With the Bears heading on to the highway for the first time in a month, look for the Pack to get back on the winning track here today.
Play on: Green Bay
Vegas Experts
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Double-digit underdogs are an incredible 15-1 ATS this year in the NFL following a pair of easy Week 10 covers by Kansas City and San Francisco. Currently getting two touchdowns from the oddsmakers, the winless Detroit Lions more than qualify this week. They have actually been competitive on the road this season, covering in three of their five losses. They are also 6-0 ATS L6 in the double-digit dog role themselves. Grab the points.
Play on: Detroit
Bob Harvey
Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons Over 51
Matt Ryan has helped turn the Falcons into a playoff contender and he’s been especially efffective at home, completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 902 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. Michael Turner should also have a field day against a Denver run defense ranked 27th in the league. In four home games, Turner is averaging 118.5 rushing yards per game and has six touchdowns. Offensively, Atlanta has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. The Ffalcons are averaging (23.4 PPG, 361 YPG) and have been especially potent at the Georgia Dome scoring to the tune of 32 PPG. That coupled with the Broncos allowing 29 points per game on the road makes this a very attractive OVER play.After being held to 15.2 PPG in its last five games, Denver’s offense exploded in its 34-30 road victory against Cleveland last Thursday. Jay Cutler has been pretty much a one man show for the Broncos. Cutler has passed for 2,616 yards and 18 touchdowns this season and has completed 211 of his 342 pass attempts - all stats among the AFC leaders. Without a running game, the Broncos will likely need another strong performance from Cutler to stay close Atlanta. The offense is dangerous, but what makes Denver an ‘over’ play is its inconsistent defense (27.9 PPG).The OVER is 7-1 in Atlanta’s last eight games and the Falcons are 3-1 to the high side at home this season.
Tony Karpinski
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play:Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4
TAMPA is coming off a bye week the Bucs should be ready to face off with a former Division rival. Special teams and turnovers continue to be huge problems for Minnesota and the Vikings will not be able to rush as successfully against a Solid Tampa defense. Minnesota has not been a strong road performer and The Vikings are just 3-6 ATS on the year. BUCS dominate at home and get this game by double digits!
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play:Jacksonville Jaguars +1
The coach rips the team and player efforts in the locker room, and voila! Renewed focus on the field and a performance finally worth of a so-called playoff contender. Of course it came against an 0-9 Detroit club, but too often this season (and in seasons past), the Jaguars have shown the tendency to play up or down to the level of their competition.Coach Jack Del Rio tried every motivational ploy in the book, but it took taking on defensive captain Mike Peterson to shake the malaise in the Jags’ locker room. Now they host the only undefeated team in the NFL, a Titans squad that has made the most of a stout defense and sensational running game. The Titans began this season with a win over the Jags, sacking Garrard 7 times while overwhelming a line that had just lost four rotation players, including two starters. It’s been over two months since that game and the Jaguars will be thirsting for revenge. JACKSONVILLE GIVES TENNESSEE their first loss on Sunday!
John Ryan
Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play:Denver Broncos +6.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Denver - Denver has a 71% probability of losing this game by 6 or fewer points. Denver has a 90% probability of gaining 6 or more yards per play. Note that Denver is a solid 62-32 ATS when in this role over the past 10 seasons. They also have an 88% probability of scoring 22 or more points. Atlanta is just 3-10 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points over the past 3 seasons. Atlanta is also just 38-63 ATS when they allow 6 or more yards per play over the past 10 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 46-18 ATS for 72% since 2002. Play on road teams after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is facing an opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Atlanta is in a series of poor roles noting they are just 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992; 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons; 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992. Denver had a huge offensive game last week against Cleveland (MNF 15* winner) gaining 564 yards. Note that Denver is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take the Denver Broncos.
Jimmy The Moose
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are 6-3 SU and ATS on the season. Arizona's offense has been unstoppable averaging 29.2 PPG and that's bad news for a Seattle D that is allowing 25.7 PPG. In their last 13 games coming off an ATS loss the Cardinals are 9-4 at the window. Seaatle has struggled to a 2-7 SU record this season. The Seawhawks do get their starting QB, Hasselbeck back for this one but he can't fix a poor D. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle has owned this division but this year it looks like the Cardinals will win it and to make the point they'll easily beat the Seahawks. Play on the Arizona Cardinals -.
Brian Graves
Eagles vs. Bengals
Pick: Eagles -9
I normally hate laying more than a TD on the road, but when I can get a team with Philly's pass rush against a backup QB I am more than happy to do that. If your concerned go back and watch the tape of the Philly/Seattle game a few weeks back. McNabb will shred this defense and Westbrook will have 2 big plays, not to mention the defense pitches a near shutout as Philly wins 31-6!
Jimmy Thompson
Houston vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Colts -8
We are having a hard time figuring out why this line is coming down. The Colts are proving that as they get healthy they also get dangerous. With Addai back in the backfield and Sanders back in the secondary this is a different team. Wins over Pittsburgh and New England prove that and we understand the possible letdown scenario here. It doesn't wash though because this team needs every win and at home they will score at will against a Texan team still smarting over that collapse earlier this year! Colts win 38-17!
Scott Ferrall
CINCY +9 from Philly--The Eagles bubble burst against the Giants last Sunday night. Too much wood to not grab here
SEATTLE +3 from Arizona--I think everyone is getting a bit excited for nothing with the Cardinals. Hasselback is back and they'll knock off Zona
New Orleans -5.5 to Kansas City--Saints pull one off on the road at Arrowhead with Brees having a big day
INDY -8 to Houston--I like the way the Colts are playing lately. They just beat the Pats and Steelers back to back
Oakland +10.5 from Miami--The Dolphins aren't bad, but they can't handle that kind of number. They couldn't against Seattle-what makes the Raiders any different
Nelly
Philadelphia – over Cincinnati
The Eagles have a lot of vulnerable areas but they seem to catch a lot of breaks. Losing last Sunday night was a critical blow in the standings but Philadelphia had won three in row prior to that loss. Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 road games and Philadelphia has only lost to quality teams this season, generally taking care of business against teams they should beat. Cincinnati enters this game off the first win of the year and a bye week but the Bengals are not likely to carry momentum into this game. Look for the Eagles to bounce back with a complete performance.
JIM FEIST
ST. LOUIS RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
TAKE UNDER
The 2008 Rams (2-7 SU/2-6-1 ATS) are now 2-3 SU/2-2-1 ATS under coach Jim Haslett. Of course, it's been all downhill, losing 34-13 at home to Arizona, showing nothing, then looking worse Sunday in another embarrassing loss, 47-3 at the Jets. They trailed 40-0 at the half! Hopes were high that the team had turned a corner, but they were dominated by the Cardinals, who had an edge in yards 510-231. Sunday it was 373-200, as they played without RB Steven Jackson again. The numbers are ugly: 30th in total defense, 31st in offense. The defense (so bad in the first four games) has allowed 23, 34 and 47 points the last three games, both losses. RB Steven Jackson (thigh) remains day to day, CB Tye Hill has an ailing knee. The Jets' defensive line did a number on the Rams' front. The pass-blocking was bad, and the run-blocking was even worse, with the Rams rarely getting any kind of push. A year ago the Rams started 0-8 with all kinds of injuries, but then went 2-0 SU/ATS after the bye week. The 2007 Rams went 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS after that 2-game win streak following the 2007 bye and a similar story is playing out in 2008. The Rams are just 2-9-1 ATS their last 12 games. St. Louis is also 3-10 SU 4-8-1 its last 13 away. The only plus for San Francisco (2-7 SU/3-6 ATS) is that the crosstown Raiders are the laughingstock of the AFC. The 49ers are already on their second skipper, with interim coach Mike Singletary, who wanted to get a point across during his first halftime speech two weeks ago. His team was down 20-3 and he wanted to illustrate how badly they were playing. So, a 49ers spokesman confirmed, Singletary dropped his pants (the coach was wearing boxers.) Then they went out and finished up a 34-13 home loss to the lousy Seahawks. The 49ers rank 20th in defense and 23rd in offense, despite adding free wheeling OC Mike Martz. Mobile QB Shaun Hill replaced J.T. O'Sullivan last week. Hill played well - to a point: 3 turnovers (2 picks). The end was typical of a disorganized team, two runs inside the Cardinal 4 to end the game: Stuffed! Another loss. At least they showed some fire, unlike their opponent here. We don't expect either team to score a lot since the Niners will likely control the ball on the ground with Frank Gore and the Rams are once again without star RB Jackson. If you like scoring, this isn't the game to watch on Sunday. Take the UNDER!!
Dave Cokin
Chargers @ Steelers
Play: Steelers -5
I'm anti-Chargers here. Time to stop thinking about last year's Chargers. That's now ancient history. This year's entry can't run the ball and can't stop the pass. They can't win on the road, either. Teams from the west making the cross country journey have been astonishingly inept and the Chargers are a warm weather team now about to play what amounts to a night game in cold weather with the added possibility of wind and precipitation. The Steelers should end their two-game home losing streak with a solid win here and I'll spot the number.
Tony Mathews
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4
This is a really good place for Tampa Bay because in the NFC South they are behind the Panthers by only one game. This means that the Buccaneers have to maintain momentum in this game as well as the next game which will be vs. Detroit. After that, the Buccaneers will have two straight games against Carolina and New Orleans. Tampa Bay was off last week which gives them the extra rest needed after their come from behind victory against Kansas City the week before. At home the Buccaneers are 4-0 and have won by an average of 14.4 points per game.
Minnesota is celebrating a huge home victory vs. Green Bay, but this victory was a surprise that technically shouldn’t have happened. Vikings QB Gus Frerotte was 15-28 passing and three picks against a team that is ranked 3rd in passing defense in the NFL. The Bucs are ranked 5th, so we expect Frerotte to perform pretty much the same this time around. On the Road Minnesota is 1-3, and the lone victory saw the Vikings outgained by the Saints with a total of 105 yards. Minnesota was fortunate with the benefit of being on the right side of turnovers in that game.
The Buccaneers have a very simple game plan; stop RB Adrian Peterson. Against Green Bay, Patterson gained 192 yards and failing to stop him was the Packers downfall. Green Bay in general is incredibly weak in stopping the run, allowing an average of 154.6 yards per game on 5 yards per carry with ranks of 28th and 30th in the NFL. By comparison, the Buccaneers have allowed only 99.3 yards per game and their competitors an average of 3.8 yards per carry. Tampa Bay ranks 11th in yards per game allowed and 12th in allowed yards per carry.
The Buccaneers offense is pretty good. In total offense Tampa bay is at a tied rank of 8th in the league and at 16th for points, putting up an average of 22.2 per game. However, Tampa Bay does have some issues with running backs Earnest Graham, Carnell Williams, and Warrick Dunn not being at 100% health. This is a problem considering they will face the Minnesota 3rd ranked rushing defense. Needless to say the Bucs running game isn’t going to make the game. Tampa Bay does have an excellent passing game to pull them through against the Vikings 19th ranked pass defense.
Also important to remember about Tampa Bay is that the Quarterbacks have been only sacked ten times in the entire season. This illustrates great protection and leaves plenty of room for the running game. While the Packers ran the ball only 18 times vs. the Vikings, they managed to gain 4.1 yards per carry. Before them, the Texans averaged 3.9 yards per carry and Detroit at 4.2, so as long as the Bucs are persistent. there shouldn‘t be a problem; this is exactly what coach Jon Gruden has planned. The Buccaneers are 16-4 against the spread (dating back to last season).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4!