Pure Lock
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE
PLAY ON: SEATTLE (+)
R&R Totals
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Play On: OVER
Mikey Sports
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Play On: San Diego (+)
SPORTS ADVISORS
Denver (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Atlanta (6-3 SU and ATS)
The beyond-surprising Falcons pursue their fifth win in six games when they host the Broncos at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta dropped New Orleans 34-20 last week as a one-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover, giving the SU winner a 17-1 ATS mark in the Falcons’ last 18 games, including 9-0 ATS this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (16 of 23, 248 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid again, and RB Michael Turner (27 carries, 96 yards, 1 TD) had another good day.
Atlanta, which led 27-7 early in the fourth quarter, coasted despite getting outgained 521-361, but it had a 3-0 turnover advantage, including a 95-yard INT return for a score late in the game.
Denver rallied to beat Cleveland 34-30 as a three-point road underdog last Thursday, halting a three-game SU skid and a six-game ATS plunge. QB Jay Cutler (24 of 42, 447 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT), working with a decimated running back corps, threw all three of his TD passes during a 21-point fourth quarter as the Broncos rallied from a 23-13 deficit. The rally began with a 93-yard TD pass from Cutler to Eddie Royal.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. In 2004, Atlanta earned a 41-28 road win getting seven points.
The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this year and carry additional positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall and 12-4 against the AFC. The Broncos, despite last week’s effort, are still mired in pointspread funks of 8-24-1 overall, 2-8-1 after a spread-cover, 3-12 against winning teams, 5-17-1 after a SU win and 4-12 on the road.
The over for Atlanta is on runs of 11-5 overall and 7-1 at home (3-1 this year), and the over for Denver is on streaks of 21-7-2 overall, 5-1 in November, 8-2-1 on the highway and 7-3-2 against winning teams. Also, the last four clashes between these two – including Super Bowl XXXIII – have cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Oakland (2-7, 3-6 ATS) at Miami (5-4 SU and ATS)
The Dolphins, aiming to keep pace in the AFC East logjam, step out of division play for a home game against the flailing Raiders.
Miami held off Seattle 21-19 for its third straight win, though the Dolphins failed to cash as a heavy nine-point home favorite, halting a two-game ATS uptick. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 36, 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was serviceable enough, and Ricky Williams (12 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, scoring on a 51-yard jaunt.
Oakland lost to Carolina 17-6 as a 10-point home pup for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, giving the SU winner an 8-1 ATS mark this season in Raiders games (6-0 ATS in the last six). Oakland has managed a meager 35 points over its last five games, including just two touchdowns, none in the last two games.
Miami is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, though the Raiders went to South Beach last year and rolled 35-17 as a 3½-point road pup. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Dolphins are on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 against AFC opponents, 7-2-1 in November and 5-2 after a non-cover. On the flip side, the Raiders are a lengthy 29-60-1 ATS in their last 90 games and are on further ATS nosedives of 17-39-1 after a non-cover, 20-45-1 after a SU loss, 8-17 as a non-division road ‘dog and 6-10 in the Eastern Time Zone.
The under for Miami is on runs of 6-0 in November and 4-1 at home, and the under is 4-1 in Oakland’s last five games overall. However, the total has gone high in six of the Raiders’ last eight roadies.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Baltimore (6-3, 7-2 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (8-1, 7-2 ATS)
Two teams chasing their fifth consecutive victories tangle in East Rutherford, N.J., where the Giants host the Ravens in a non-conference contest.
New York outlasted Philadelphia 36-31 as a three-point road pup Sunday night, moving to 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four starts. QB Eli Manning (17 of 31, 191 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a fair effort, but the Giants’ ground game was the key, rolling up 219 yards, with RB Brandon Jacobs (22 carries, 126 yards, 2 TDs) leading the way. New York nearly doubled the Eagles in time of possession (39:10-20:50).
Baltimore also won and cashed for the fourth straight game last Sunday, drilling Houston 41-13 as a 2½-point road underdog. The Ravens picked off Texans QB Sage Rosenfels four times, while committing no turnovers, and they got solid offensive efforts from rookie QB Joe Flacco (15 of 23, 185 yards, 2 TDs) and RB Willis McGahee (25 carries, 112 yards, 2 TDs). Baltimore finished with a 12-minute-plus edge in time of possession.
The SU winner is 19-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 21 games (8-1 ATS this season) and 18-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 20 games (8-1 ATS this season).
These squads haven’t met in the regular season since 2004, when Baltimore rolled to a 37-14 home win giving 10½ points.
The Giants are on several positive ATS runs, including 21-6 overall, 10-1 against winning teams, 10-2 after a SU win and 5-1 at home. Likewise, the Ravens are on ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 5-0 after a SU win and 12-6 against NFC foes.
The over for New York is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 8-3 at home, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-1 in November, and the over for Baltimore is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 in roadies, 5-0 after a SU win, 13-3 on grass and 6-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (3-6, 2-7 ATS) at Indianapolis (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
The Colts are aiming for a season-high third straight win when they welcome the Texans to Lucas Oil Field for an AFC South matchup.
Indianapolis knocked off Pittsburgh 24-20 as a 3½-point road underdog, ending a three-game ATS skid and giving the SU winner an 11-1 ATS mark in the Colts’ last 12 starts. QB Peyton Manning (21 of 40, 240 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had one of his better games of the season and he was bolstered greatly by a Colts defense that provided a 3-0 turnover advantage by picking off Ben Roethlisberger three times.
Houston got pounded by Baltimore 41-13 as a 2½-points home chalk for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Sage Rosenfels (23 of 38, 294 yards, 1 INT) subbed for injured starter Matt Schaub and pretty much gave the game away with four INTs, accounting for all the turnovers in this contest.
Indianapolis has won three straight meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), rallying from a 27-10 fourth-quarter deficit last month in Houston to pull out a stunning 31-27 road win as a three-point chalk. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
The Colts are on ATS dips of 1-6 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home, 3-10 in division contests and 2-5 on artificial turf. The Texans have been just as bad at the betting window, carrying negative ATS trends of 1-5 overall, 1-6 on the highway, 0-4 on turf, 2-7 against winning teams and 2-6 inside the division.
The over for Indianapolis is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in the AFC South and 7-3 after a SU win, and the over for Houston is on tears of 21-8-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 8-1 against the AFC and 18-5 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on sprees of 7-0 overall and 5-0 in Indy.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER
Tennessee (9-0, 8-1 ATS) at Jacksonville (4-5, 3-6 ATS)
The Titans look to keep their perfect mark intact when they travel to Alltel Stadium for an AFC South clash with the Jaguars.
Tennessee remained the NFL’s only unbeaten team by topping Chicago 21-14 as a three-point favorite at Soldier Field, and the SU winner is now 16-2-1 ATS in the Titans’ last 19 games. Tennessee had almost no running game (20 net yards rushing) as the Bears stacked the box, but QB Kerry Collins (30 of 41, 289 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) took advantage with his biggest passing day of the season. The Titans defense allowed just 243 yards, and after allowing a first-quarter TD, Tennessee didn’t give up another score until five minutes remained in the game.
Jacksonville drilled Detroit 38-14 as a six-point road chalk, snapping a two-game SU and ATS hiccup and marking the first time this season that the Jags played a game that was decided by more than a touchdown. QB David Garrard (18 of 25, 238 yards, 2 TDs) was efficient, RBs Maurice Jones-Drew (3 TDs) and Fred Taylor combined for 150 rushing yards, and the Jags had no turnovers in running up a 384-256 edge in total yards.
Tennessee is on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge in this AFC South rivalry, including a 17-10 season-opening win as a three-point home pup back in September. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is on a 4-0 ATS run.
Along with their 8-1 ATS run this season, the Titans are on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 4-0 on the road, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-0 against the AFC, 10-3 as a road chalk and 13-3 in divisional play. The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS at home this year and are on further ATS slides of 0-4 after a spread-cover, 0-4 after a SU win and 1-8 on grass, but they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 starts against winning teams.
For Tennessee, the under is on streaks of 5-1 on the road and 14-5-1 after a SU win. On the flip side, the over for Jacksonville is on stretches of 20-8-3 overall, 5-1 versus the AFC South and 11-3-2 against winning teams, and the over has cashed in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Chicago (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) at Green Bay (4-5, 6-3 ATS)
After consecutive road losses, the Packers return home hoping to get back to .500 in this NFC North contest against the Bears at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay lost at Minnesota 28-27, giving up an Adrian Peterson TD in the waning moments, then missing a game-winning 52-yard field goal try at the buzzer. The Packers did cash as a 2½-point underdog to cover for the fourth straight week. They finished with just 184 total yards and held the ball for less than 24 minutes, but hung around by winning the turnover battle 3-0 and returning an INT and a punt for touchdowns. Green Bay also gave up four points on two second-quarter safeties.
Chicago lost to Tennessee 21-14 as a three-point home pup, ending a two-game SU surge and sending the Bears to their second straight ATS loss. QB Rex Grossman (20 of 37, 173 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), subbing for an injured Kyle Orton, was typically unsteady, as the Bears put up a first-quarter TD, then didn’t score again until Grossman dove in from the 1 with five minutes left in the game. Chicago finished with just 243 total yards.
The SU winner is 24-2-1 ATS in Green Bay’s last 27 games and 20-2-1 ATS in Chicago’s last 23 starts.
Chicago won and covered in both of last year’s meetings with Green Bay, including a 27-20 road win getting three points. The Bears are on ATS runs in this rivalry of 4-1-1 overall and 7-3-1 at Lambeau, and the road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight contests – all from the underdog role.
The Packers are on ATS streaks of 20-7-1 overall, 8-3-1 at home, 4-0 in division play, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 7-2-1 after a SU loss. The Bears are on ATS surges of 8-2 after a SU loss, 4-1 in the division and 7-2 after a pointspread setback, but should Grossman again be called on today, Chicago is on a 2-10 ATS slide with him as the starter.
The over for Green Bay is on several streaks, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-0 inside the division, 6-0-1 after a SU loss, 8-1 at home and 7-2 against winning teams. For Chicago, the under is on a 5-0 uptick on the road, but the over is 9-4-1 in its last 14 NFC North battles. Lastly, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these rivals at Lambeau Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Philadelphia (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-8, 3-6 ATS)
The Eagles, who had their three-game SU and ATS win streak snapped last week, are heavy favorites to get back in the win column against the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.
Philadelphia fell to the Giants 36-31 as a three-point home chalk on Sunday night. QB Donovan McNabb (17 of 36, 194 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a fair outing, but the Eagles got outgained 400-301, gave up 219 rushing yards and were nearly doubled in time of possession (39:10-20:50).
Cincinnati, coming off its bye, broke through for its first win of the season two weeks ago, stunning Jacksonville 21-19 as a nine-point home ‘dog. The Bengals held on despite getting outscored 16-0 in the fourth quarter. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (21 of 31, 162 yards, 1 INT) threw for a pair of TDs and also ran for 52 yards, and RB Cedric Benson (24 carries, 104 yards, 1 TD) had a solid day. Fitzpatrick once again will be under center in place of injured starter Carson Palmer.
These clubs last met late in the 2004 season, when Cincy posted a 38-10 rout as a 3½-point road favorite.
The Eagles are on a 9-1 ATS tear on the highway and sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 in November and 7-2 after a non-cover. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 November starts, but they are on ATS slides of 0-4 coming off the bye, 1-8 after a spread-cover and 1-6 after a SU win.
The over is 4-1 in Philly’s last five road games and 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven games following a bye, but the under is 8-3-2 in the Eagles’ last 13 against losing teams, 5-1-1 in the Bengals’ last seven home games and 10-4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 15 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
New Orleans (4-5, 5-4 ATS) at Kansas City (1-8, 5-4 ATS)
The inconsistent Saints try to get back to .500 when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium for a non-conference game against the Chiefs.
New Orleans tumbled to Atlanta 34-20 as a one-point road ‘dog, giving the SU winner an 18-1 ATS mark in the Saints’ last 19 games (8-1 ATS this season). In addition, New Orleans has now alternated SU wins and losses over the last seven games and ATS wins and losses in its last six contests. QB Drew Brees (31 of 58, 422 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) played from behind all day and one of his picks was returned 95 yards for a late fourth-quarter score to seal the Saints’ fate.
Kansas City fell just short to San Diego 20-19, easily covering as an overwhelming 14½-point ‘dog. K.C. scored a TD in the last minute, then went for the win but failed on a 2-point conversion, negating a turnover-free day for the Chiefs and a solid outing from young QB Tyler Thigpen (27 of 41, 266 yards, 3 TDs).
These two teams have just one regular-season meeting this decade, a 27-20 New Orleans win in 2004 as a 3½-point home underdog.
The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, but they are on ATS runs of 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 8-4 as a road chalk. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU loss, but they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine at Arrowhead (2-2 ATS this year).
The over for New Orleans is on runs of 11-2-1 overall, 5-1 on the highway and 7-1 against losing teams, and the over for Kansas City is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-2 at home and 5-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Detroit (0-9, 3-6 ATS) at Carolina (7-2, 5-2-2 ATS)
The Panthers pursue their fourth straight win when they take on the hapless Lions at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina was ragged at Oakland, but still came away with a 17-6 victory, even cashing as a 10-point road favorite to move the SU winner to 22-2-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 25 games. QB Jake Delhomme was an absolute disaster, going 7 of 27 for 72 yards with four INTs against just one TD, but DeAngelo Williams (19 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD) had a huge day, and the Panthers defense allowed just a pair of third-quarter field goals as Carolina finished with a 14-minute edge in time of possession.
Detroit is coming off an ugly 38-14 home loss to Jacksonville as a six-point pup, ending a 3-1 ATS roll, and the Lions are now 1-16 SU in their last 17 games. Newly acquired QB Daunte Culpepper (5 of 10, 104 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) got the start, but he didn’t help much as he split time with Drew Stanton, and the Lions finished with just 256 yards, while allowing 384.
Carolina is 2-0 SU and Detroit is 2-0 ATS in the last two meetings between these two, with the Panthers notching a 21-20 win in 2005, but the Lions getting the money as 2½-point home pups.
The Panthers sport ATS streaks of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 5-1-1 as a double-digit favorite. The Lions are on a 9-4 ATS run following a double-digit home loss, but the pointspread trends spiral downward from there, including 4-13 overall, 4-10 after a SU loss and 3-8 after a non-cover.
The under for Carolina is on stretches of 7-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 10-1 in November and 6-1 against losing teams. Conversely, the over for Detroit is on streaks of 11-3-1 overall, 7-2 on the highway and 6-0-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
Minnesota (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Tampa Bay (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Buccaneers, who had a bye last week following a two-game road trip, finally return to Raymond James Stadium when they take on the Vikings.
Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 30-27 in overtime two weeks ago, coming back from a 24-3 second-quarter deficit to notch the victory, but fell short as a healthy 9½-point road chalk for its third straight ATS setback. QB Jeff Garcia (31 of 43, 339 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) did well enough to help Tampa overcome a 4-1 turnover deficit, aided by Clifton Smith’s 97-yard kickoff return for a TD. Matt Bryant kicked a 34-yard field goal to win it.
Minnesota edged Green Bay 28-27 on a late TD run from RB Adrian Peterson as the Vikes won their second straight game, but they failed to cover laying 2½ points at home. The Vikings overcame three INTs from Gus Frerotte (15 of 28, 151 yards, 2 TDs), and Peterson (30 carries, 192 yards) made amends for a fourth-down fumble with his 29-yard game-winning scoring jaunt. The Minnesota defense allowed just 184 total yards.
Tampa Bay has won and cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry, most recently taking a 24-13 road win in 2005 catching 6½ points. The Bucs are on a 5-0 ATS run at home in this series, and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Buccaneers are on positive pointspread streaks of 9-4 at home, 4-1 against winning teams, 5-2 after the bye and 12-6-1 as a non-division home chalk. The Vikings are on a handful of ATS declines, including 3-9 overall, 1-4 on the road, 0-6 after a SU win, 2-6 against the NFC and 9-18-1 as a non-division road ‘dog.
The under for Tampa is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 at home, but the over for Minnesota is on streaks of 5-1 overall and 4-0 on the road. Also, the over has cashed in each of the last five series meetings at Raymond James.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
St. Louis (2-7, 3-6 ATS) at San Francisco (2-7, 3-6 ATS)
Two NFC West rivals going nowhere fast square off when the Rams travel to Monster Park to take on the 49ers.
St. Louis hits the highway for the second week in a row after getting drubbed by the New York Jets 47-3 as a 9½-point road ‘dog, the team’s third consecutive SU loss and second straight ATS setback. The Rams netted just 200 yards and lost the turnover battle 5-0, with QB Marc Bulger coughing up a fumble that was returned 50 yards for a TD.
San Francisco lost at Arizona 29-24 on Monday night but got the cash as a 9½ point ‘dog. The 49ers were actually in position to win, with first-and-goal at the 2-yard line in the final minute, but poor clock management and even worse play calling kept the 49ers from punching it in. Also hurting San Francisco was the fact it was on the wrong end of a 3-0 turnover deficit.
The SU winner is 11-1 ATS in St. Louis’ last 12 games (8-1 ATS this year) and 19-1 ATS in San Fran’s last 20 contests (8-1 ATS this year).
San Francisco is on a 6-1 ATS surge against the Rams and a 5-2 ATS roll in the last seven contests by the Bay.
The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against losing teams, but they are on ATS freefalls of 3-9 overall, 0-4 inside the division, 4-10 in November, 20-45-1 after an ATS loss and 19-42-1 after a SU loss. The 49ers have been just as bad lately, going 5-14 SU and ATS since their bye week last year, along with further ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-4 after a SU loss and 2-7 following a spread-cover.
The under is 16-7 in St. Louis’ last 23 road games and 8-2 in the Rams’ last 10 contests on grass, and in this rivalry, the under has cashed in four straight games and four of the last five in San Francisco. However, the over for the 49ers is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 in division play and 23-11-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS) at Seattle (2-7, 4-5 ATS)
The Cardinals, who are running away with the hapless NFC West, travel to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Arizona rallied to beat San Francisco 29-24 Monday night but failed to cover as a 9½-point chalk, ending a four-game ATS win streak. QB Kurt Warner (32 of 42, 328 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had another huge day as the Cards committed no turnovers, while forcing three. Arizona’s defense clinched the win with a goal-line stand in the final seconds.
Seattle lost to Miami 21-19 a week ago, though the Seahawks easily covered getting nine points on the road to move to 3-1 ATS in their last four games. Seattle showed a little life by rallying in the second half, but a game-tying 2-point attempt failed after the Seahawks had drawn within 21-19 late in the fourth quarter. Seattle has lost five of its last six games, but QB Matt Hasselbeck (back injury) is expected to return to the starting lineup today after missing the last five contests.
These teams split last year’s season series, with the home team winning and covering ine ach contest. The host is now on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, and the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the last five contests in Seattle.
Along with their current 4-1 ATS run, the Cardinals are on positive pointspread streaks of 5-2 against the NFC, 6-3-1 in road division games and 9-4 after a non-cover, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. The Seahawks are on a 1-6 ATS slide following a spread-cover, but they are on pointspread runs of 7-3 at home, 6-0 as an underdog against divisional foes, 7-1 overall against the NFC West and 8-2 after a SU loss.
The over is on a 7-1 tear in the last eight meetings in this rivalry. Furthermore, the over for Arizona is on runs of 37-18 overall, 9-3 inside the division and 39-16 on the road, and the over for Seattle is on streaks of 8-3-1 overall, 4-0 in division play, 7-2-1 against the NFC and 5-2-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
San Diego (4-5, 3-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
The Chargers, who reached the AFC Championship Game last year, try to climb back to .500 when they head to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers.
San Diego held off Kansas City 20-19, ending a two-game SU skid but falling far short of covering as a 14½-point favorite, the team’s third straight ATS setback. QB Philip Rivers (27 of 36, 316 yards, 2 TDs) had a relatively good outing, but he also threw two INTs to account for the game’s only turnovers. That allowed the Chiefs to stick around, despite the Chargers holding a 10-minute edge in time of possession.
Pittsburgh hosted Indianapolis last Sunday and got upended 24-20 as a 3½-point chalk, meaning the Steelers have now alternated ATS wins and losses over their last four games. QB Ben Roethlisberger (29 of 41, 280 yards) had no TD passes but threw three INTs, while the Colts – who had no turnovers -- converting two of those picks into 14 points. Pittsburgh blew a nine-minute advantage in time of possession.
Despite last week’s result against Kansas City, the SU winner is 25-2-1 ATS in San Diego’s last 28 games (7-1-1 ATS this season) and 5-0 ATS in Pittsburgh’s last five outings.
These teams have met four times this decade, with Pittsburgh going 3-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, San Diego earned a 23-13 home win laying 3½ points in 2006.
The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-division roadies, but they remain on pointspread tears of 5-1-1 against winning teams, 15-4-1 against the AFC and 9-3 after a SU win. The Steelers are on ATS skids of 2-6 as a home favorite, 1-4 in November and 2-5 on grass, though they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a non-cover.
San Diego is on a 4-1 “under” stretch, but the over for the Bolts is on tears of 14-5-2 on the highway and 13-5-1 in November, and the over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 38-14-2 at home and 4-0 against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
Dallas (5-4, 3-6 ATS) at Washington (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Cowboys, with QB Tony Romo back in the fold after sitting out three games with a broken pinkie, visit FedEx Field for a key NFC East clash with the Redskins.
Dallas took last week off after getting slammed 35-14 at the Giants as a 9½-point road underdog. Backup QBs Brad Johnson (5 of 11, 71 yards, 2 INTs) and Brooks Bollinger (9 of 16, 63 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) were both ineffective, giving even greater significance to Romo’s return this week. The Cowboys finished with a paltry 183 total yards against the Redskins, while allowing 319, and got only one score on offense – a meaningless Terrell Owens TD reception in the fourth quarter.
Washington also had its bye last week, following a 23-6 letdown as a one-point home favorite against the Steelers two weeks ago, which gave the SU winner a 15-1 ATS mark in the Redskins’ last 16 games (8-1 ATS this season). Washington took a 6-0 lead on two field goals in the first four minutes of the game, then failed to score the rest of the way. QB Jason Campbell (24 of 43, 206 yards, 0 TDs) threw a pair of INTs – his first since last year – and although the Redskins’ defense allowed just 224 total yards, the offense only produced 221.
Washington is on a 4-0 ATS streak in this rivalry, including a 26-24 road win in September as a heavy 10½-point underdog. However, the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes in Washington, and the underdog is on a 20-6 ATS run in this series.
The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last nine November tilts, but otherwise they’re on numerous pointspread skids, including 1-5 overall, 2-6 in roadies, 0-7 in division play, 1-4 after a SU loss, 2-7 after an ATS setback and 2-6 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Redskins sport positive ATS runs of 5-1 inside the division, 10-2 coming off a bye and 6-2 against winning teams, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
The over for Dallas is on runs of 5-1 overall, 16-6-2 on the highway, 6-1 in November and 10-4-3 in division contests. But Washington carries under trends of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-1 against division foes and 7-3-1 after a bye week.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
Bobby Maxwell
Tennessee at JACKSONVILLE +3
Got the college football FREE winner Saturday with Oregon State and we'll deliver on the NFL gridiron today as we play the Jaguars to get the job done at home against Tennessee.
The Tennessee Titans certainly have a solid football team. But are they undefeated good? No. That's why we're playing the home team Jaguars in this one, they have the defense to stop the Tennessee offense and the offense that can run or throw and keep the Titans off balance.
Tennessee got a 21-14 win in Chicago last week but had to get 289 passing yards from QB Kerry Collins to make it happen. The rushing game was non-existent, amassing just 20 yards. The Titans are 4-0 on the road this year, the first ime in the franchise's 49-year history. Yes, we know the Titans get it done with defense and they allow just 13 points a game and gave up just 243 yards to the Bears.
Jacksonville has got a mobile QB in David Garrard and a potent running attack in Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. They've got some big receivers in Matt Jones and Mercedes Lewis and this offense can create some havoc. If the defense can get its act together, this team can pull off this upset.
In the season-opener, the Jags lost 17-10 in Tennessee and Jacksonville had Garrard sacked seven times and he threw two INTs. As long as he doesn't turn the ball over today this game will be close.
In this rivalry, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four. And for some reason, the Jags step up against winning teams, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against successful teams. Let's grab the points with the home team Jags in this one as we see it coming down to the wire.
4♦ JACKSONVILLE
Detroit at PHOENIX -2'
On the NBA hardwood tonight we've got a FREE winner for you on the Suns as they host Detroit in the Valley of the Sun tonight.
The Pistons have had an interesting two weeks with newly acquired Allen Iverson. They lost their first two games with AI in the lineup and now they've won three straight all on the West Coast, including an impressive 106-95 win over the Lakers on Friday night, cashing in as double-digit 'dogs in Hollywood.
Meanwhile Phoenix has opened with an impressive 7-3 mark and just beat Sacramento on Friday 97-95 without the services of Steven Nash, Matt Barnes and Leandro Barbosa. Nash and Barnes were suspended for the game after a scuffle with the Rockets while Barbosa is in Brazil after the death of his mother.
What you'll see in this one is the Pistons having no answer for the big men of Phoenix. Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O'Neal will dominate the paint. The Suns aren't going to be running around trying to outscore the Pistons, they'll control the paint and actually play some defense.
On the other end look for the Suns' Raja Bell to lock down Iverson. he knows him well from their time in Philly together and it's Bell's defense that will free up Nash on the offensive end. If he doesn't have to chase Iverson on defense, he'll be fresher on offense.
Stoudemire averaged 30 points in the two meetings with the Pistons last year but the Suns couldn't stop the Pistons, giving up 113 points in the two games. That won't happen tonight. Lay the small chalk with the Suns as the Pistons are getting tired on this West Coast trip.
3♦ PHOENIX
DUNKEL
Dallas at New York
The struggling Mavs have lost five straight and have to travel to New York today to face a Knicks team that has won five of its last six. New York is the underdog pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Knicks favored straight up by 3. Dunkel Pick: New York (+3).
Game 701-702: Miami at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.182; Toronto 118.796
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 5 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+5 1/2); Over
Game 703-704: Orlando at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 119.537; Charlotte 117.798
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 1 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+6 1/2); Under
Game 705-706: Dallas at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 116.860; New York 119.747
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 3; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+3); Under
Game 707-708: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 121.496; Phoenix 124.465
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2); Over
Game 709-710: Minnesota at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.491; Denver 123.482
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 13; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 9; 204
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-9); Under
Game 711-712: San Antonio at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 115.782; Sacramento 118.442
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 2 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1 1/2); Over
NCAAB
New Mexico at Creighton
The Blue Jays open with a tough New Mexico team that is 10-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. The Lobos are the underdog pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has New Mexico favored straight up by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+3).
Game 713-714: Bradley at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 58.229; Florida 75.347
Dunkel Line: Florida by 17
Vegas Line: Florida by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-15 1/2)
Game 715-716: Columbia at Seton Hall
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 44.016; Seton Hall 62.437
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-14 1/2)
Game 717-718: William & Mary at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 53.112; Ohio 64.276
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 11
Vegas Line: Ohio by 8
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-8)
Game 719-720: New Mexico at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 65.991; Creighton 63.248
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 3
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+3)
Game 721-722: San Jose State at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 52.775; Nebraska 64.540
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 12
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+14 1/2)
Game 723-724: Long Beach State at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 49.330; Wisconsin 68.420
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 19
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 22
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+22)
Game 725-726: Rutgers at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 57.310; Delaware 51.442
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 6
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-3 1/2)
Game 727-728: Rhode Island at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 55.885; Duke 81.964
Dunkel Line: Duke by 26
Vegas Line: Duke by 23
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-23)
Game 729-730: Idaho at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 48.842; Michigan State 75.442
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 30
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+30)
Game 731-732: Old Dominion at NC Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 55.658; NC Charlotte 68.261
Dunkel Line: NC Charlotte by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: NC Charlotte by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC Charlotte (-7 1/2)
Game 733-734: Arkansas Little Rock at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas Little Rock 53.970; Pepperdine 48.133
Dunkel Line: Arkansas Little Rock by 6
Vegas Line: Arkansas Little Rock by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas Little Rock (-5)
Game 735-736: CS Fullerton at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: CS Fullerton 46.773; Hawaii 48.225
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: CS Fullerton by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+2 1/2)
Game 739-740: East Tennessee State vs. Hofstra
Dunkel Ratings: East Tennessee State
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Game 741-742: Temple vs. Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Temple
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Game 743-744: TCU at College of Charleston
Dunkel Ratings: TCU
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Game 747-748: Georgia State at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State
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Game 749-750: UC Davis vs. Loyola Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis
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Game 751-752: WI-Milwaukee at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee
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Game 753-754: Wofford at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 47.749; Dayton 67.659
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 20
Vegas Line: Dayton by 16
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-16)
Game 755-756: SE Missouri State at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 50.667; Kansas State 68.450
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 18
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 21
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+21)
Game 757-758: Tennessee State at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 50.625; Loyola-MD 52.671
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 2
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 8
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+8)
Game 759-760: The Citadel at VA Commonwealth
Dunkel Ratings: the Citadel 38.159; VA Commonwealth 66.221
Dunkel Line: VA Commonwealth by 28
Vegas Line: VA Commonwealth by 23
Dunkel Pick: VA Commonwealth (-23)
Game 761-762: Morehead State at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 45.552; Vanderbilt 64.219
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 19
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-17 1/2)
Game 763-764: Towson at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 53.457; Niagara 56.997
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Niagara by 7
Dunkel Pick: Towson (+7)
NHL
Tampa Bay at Carolina
The Lightning look for a coaching change to shake up the team and take advantage of a Carolina club that has lost four of its last five. Tampa Bay is the underdog pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135).
Game 51-52: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.260; Carolina 10.530
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135); Under
Game 53-54: Montreal at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.943; St. Louis 11.061
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135); Over
Game 55-56: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.946; Philadelphia 11.319
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-160); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+140); Under
Game 57-58: San Jose at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.952; Chicago 11.672
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-115); Over
Game 59-60: Los Angeles at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.995; Anaheim 10.337
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+155); Over
NFL
Game 401-402: Denver at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.802; Atlanta 138.089
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Under
Game 403-404: Oakland at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.979; Miami 129.559
Dunkel Line: Miami by 8 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 10 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10 1/2); Over
Game 405-406: Baltimore at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 138.120; NY Giants 143.179
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5; 49
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+7); Over
Game 407-408: Houston at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 128.777; Indianapolis 138.126
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7 1/2); Under
Game 409-410: Tennessee at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 136.442; Jacksonville 136.567
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Under
Game 411-412: Chicago at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 133.892; Green Bay 140.759
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-4); Over
Game 413-414: Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.627; Cincinnati 128.530
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+9); Under
Game 415-416: New Orleans at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.071; Kansas City 125.911
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7; 44
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-5); Under
Game 417-418: Detroit at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 122.361; Carolina 134.530
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 12; 36
Vegas Line: Carolina by 14; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+14); Under
Game 419-420: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.639; Tampa Bay 138.558
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3 1/2); Over
Game 421-422: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.523; San Francisco 124.840
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6 1/2); Under
Game 423-424: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 133.121; Seattle 128.503
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3); Over
Game 425-426: San Diego at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 132.850; Pittsburgh 140.712
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 45
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5); Over
Game 427-428: Dallas at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.984; Washington 134.528
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2); Under
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17
Game 429-430: Cleveland at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 129.613; Buffalo 130.945
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+5 1/2); Over
Scott Rickenbach
Play OVER the total in Indianapolis vs Houston
We’ll stay with what cashed a nice ticket last week and that’s Over the total in an Indianapolis Colts game. Last week the game was at Pittsburgh. Even though the Steelers threw four interceptions in the match-up the game still flew over the total. This is the nature of Colts games right now and there should be plenty of points scored again this week considering they now get involved with a poor Texans defense this week! As for the Colts, their defense has left a lot to be desired. They are coming off of back to back big wins. Last week it was the key road win at Pittsburgh and the week before it was a big Sunday night win over the Patriots. Against New England, the Colts defense did not look good even though the Patriots only scored 15 points in the game. New England moved the ball very, very well against the Colts and Indianapolis was quite fortunate to escape with the win. As for the Texans this week, they certainly bring a little extra motivation to this game after getting drilled 41 to 13 at home last week. Houston will most certainly be able to move the ball against a porous Colts defense that simply can’t stop teams from moving the ball on them. The damage done by the Patriots on that Sunday night game two weeks ago certainly could have been a lot worse as the Pats had no trouble between the twenties! On the flip side of this match-up, the Texans defense seems to be fading just like the entire team is. How else do you explain giving up 41 points to the Ravens when you’re at home where you’ve played so well in prior seasons? Even though Baltimore’s 333 yards of total offense may not seem that impressive note the 27 first downs and the fact that the Ravens dominated the time of possession as they held the ball for 36 minutes in that game. That wears a defense down and the Texans defense is once again in trouble this week as they face a Colts offense that has been moving the ball with ease in recent weeks. The Colts offense has Joseph Addai back and, with each game he gets under his belt, Peyton Manning seems closer and closer to returning to being the Peyton of old after he essentially missed training camp before the season! The Colts offense keeps clicking but the defense could suffer a letdown after the big win over Pittsburgh. That leads to an OVER here.
Tom Freese
Minnesota at Denver
Denver is 17-6 ATS on Sunday and they are 17-6 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. The Nuggets are 17-3 ATS off two straight road games and they are 20-9 ATS their last 29 home games. Minnesota is 4-9 ATS vs. Western Conference foes and they are 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record of over 60%. The T'Wolves 1-5 ATS their last 6 Sunday games. PLAY ON DENVER -
MTi
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Under
The Raiders have had two scoring drives in their last two games. Each was off an interception in the opponents territoy and each resulted in a field goal. Each drive accumulated a total of five yards. Indeed, the Raiders? offense is struggling and we see no end to their struggles this week.This is a strong UNDER situation for Miami as they are 0-8-1 OU (-10.7 ppg) as a home favorite off a straight up win. that got them to one game above 500. Also, the Dolphins are 0-8 OU (-10.4 ppg) at home the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing and 0-5 OU (-13.2 ppg) as a home 7+ favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at hosting a divisional opponent.The Raiders actually outgained the Panther last week 259-219, but lost 17-6. Delhomme threw four interceptions and was 7-of-27 passing. This is no reason to take the over, as the Raiders are 0-8 OU (-10.7 ppg) as a dog the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent. In addition, Oakland is 0-9 OU (-9.5 ppg) as a 7+ dog when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks and 0-7 OU (-8.1 ppg) as a road dog the week after a straight up loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. Finally, the Raiders are 0-7 OU (-7.9 ppg) as a dog the week after a loss in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing. Why isn?t this number under 37 Take the UNDER.
Larry Ness
Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
PICK: Over 51
I went 'over' with the Saints/Falcons last week and needed a 28-point fourth quarter to make it but "make it I did." I don't expect to be 'sweating out' the fourth quarter in this game. Denver's rushing attack has all but disappeared, leaving the team's entire offense to Jake Cutler's arm. The good news is, Cutler's right arm is pretty darned good. He's averaging 290.7 YPG through the air with 18 TD passes in nine games this season, while throwing 88 times his last two outings for 754 yards and five TDs. Marshall sat out Week 1 but still has 57 receptions, while rookie Eddie Royal has added 52 catches. The Atlanta pass 'D' will be "under attack," all game. As for the Falcons, who are 4-0 SU and ATS at home, the team offers a great balance of running (No. 2 in the NFL at 157.8 YPG / 4.6 YPC) and passing (with rookie Matt Ryan). That balanced attack offers the Denver defense with a unique challenge, as the Broncos can't stop the run or the pass. Atlanta features RBs Turner (890 YR / 4.4 YPC) and Norwood (365 YR / 5.6 YPC) against a Denver rush 'D' which is allowing 146.3 YPG (ranks 27th) and 5.1 YPC (31st). Matt Ryan, who has thrown at least two TD passes in four of his last five games (averaging 248 YPG and 64.8 percent completions), faces a Denver pass 'D' which allows 242.8 YPG on 70.1 percent completions with 14 TD passes allowed and only three INTs. Denver's gone 'over' 10-3-1 its last 14 away games. So why should it be any different here? It shouldn't! Den/Atl Over.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Indianapolis Colts -8
The Texans are 0-4 on the road this season and also 0-3 in division games. Since a slow start, the Colts are now 5-4 and have won back-to-back games over the Pats and the Steelers. After coming very close to an earlier season loss at Houston before rallying late to win, you can expect the Colts to buckle down and end this one early. Indy has won 12 of the last 13 meetings and is a perfect 6-0 at home against Houston during that span. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 1-11 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.
Scott's Sport Picks!
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) vs Denver ~ 3 Units
I was going to just put out an opinion on this game until I took a good, long look at Denver's defensive stats. They have only forced 10 turnovers this year. With 3 of them being interceptions and 7 being forced fumbles. They only have 20 sacks as well so look for Matt Ryan to add to his Team's record of 4-0 @ home.
QB Jay Cutler did his job last week for the Broncos, pulling out a high scoring 34-30 victory over the Browns. I have a joke for you. What do you get when you put the 27th and 29th ranked defensive teams against each other? A high scoring, 34-30 ball game. Don't let that game scare ANYONE into thinking the Broncos are back on track. They're still the same team that has only averaged 15 points a game the 5 games prior to the Browns. In their last 4 games, their opponents have averaged over 30 PPG. This is a no brainer...
The Falcons have emerged this year as a solid contender. They're tied for 2nd and 1 game behind first in the NFC South. QB Matt Ryan has blossomed into one of those rare rookie QB's that come out of college and starts off good in the Pros. At home this year, the Falcons are 4-0 only allowing opponents to score an average 18 PPG while averaging 32 themselves. That stat would be higher but they only scored 22 against a solid Bears defense.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Broncos are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.
Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Eagles -9
The Philadelphia Eagles will look to get back on track following a narrow defeat to division rival New York on Sunday Night Football while the Bengals will look to build off of their first win of the season. Philly is now 1-9 in games decided by less than a touchdowns the last two seasons, including 0-4 in 2008. During that same stretch, it is 12-3 in games decided by seven points or more. So it should be good news for the Eagles that they are 9-point favorites with the total set at 41 this week.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 unit on Seattle Seahawks +3
I like the Seahawks catching points at home against a Cardinals team which has continued to struggle on the road. The Seahawks realize their reign atop the division likely ends this season but they will not go down without a fight. Seattle is 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, exploding to win these games by an average score of 24.3 to 11.3 while Arizona is 6-22 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Seattle is 2-0 SU and ATS at home versus the Cards the last 3 seasons and it has won 6 of the last 8 overall at home in this series. Head coach Mike Holmgren is also 9-0 ATS off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Seattle , exploding to win in these spots by an average score of 30.3 to 15.6. We'll take the points.
Bob Balfe
Bengals +9 over Eagles
The Bengals are 1-8 and obviously would love nothing more than to get a big home victory, but that will be tough to do against Philadelphia. I will say that the Bengals are one of the best teams to start 1-8, not like that means much. Cincy is coming off a big win against the Jags last week and will look to carry the momentum into today. I was actually in Cincinnati yesterday and it was cold and really windy. This 9 point spread might be too much for Philly to overcome in these conditions. Last weeks loss to the Giants really deflated this Eagles team. Take the Bengals.
Matt Rivers
Grab the points with the Ravens today at New York.
I cannot say that I have fully bought into Joe Flacco or this Baltimore offense, but getting a full touchdown is enough for me here, even on the road and even against what appears to be the best team in the NFL in Tom Coughlin's Giants. With that said, I do have to give today's visitors some respect as they have won four in a row and thanks in great part to that offense which has scored a whopping 134 points in those games.
I definitely have a ton of respect for what New York has been doing ever since the regular season game against the Patriots last season, but Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and the hard-hitting Ravens defense is once again no joke and as confident as can be. With the offense scoring some points, a full touchdown is pretty darn solid.
Playing a third straight road game is extremely tough and one theory which always means a must go against, but I am going directly against this theory as this is going to be a competitive game until the final whistle.
This game will not be for the faint of heart as both teams will be hitting and getting after it as they both seem to do. In the end the Giants certainly could prevail at home as Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Plaxico Burress and the G-Men are really good, but the number is a bit too much and at the very worst a small must play.
Comp Play: Baltimore