John Fina
Selection: New Orleans/Kansas City Over 50
Reason: Put us down on the New Orleans Saints/Kansas City Chiefs Over 50 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. The Atlanta defense has been incredible lately, but New Orleans lit up the defense last week. The Saints gained a total of 521 yards against that amazing defense and the Falcons don’t even compare. The Saints are one of the best in the league, averaging 416 yards per game in total offense. New Orleans holds the NFL record as the only team to average more than 400 yards per game. Turnovers were the only reason that the Saints didn’t put up more than 20 points against the Falcons. As for Kansas City, they are the absolute worst in total defense in the league with an average allowed yardage of 406.2 per game. There is only one other team in the entire NFL that allows more than 400 and that is Detroit. This season, the Chiefs have given their opponents an average of 27 points per game. In 4 out of their last 7, they’ve surrendered at least 30. The Kansas City defense is the main problem as they have been outgained in all 9 games this season. Small wonder they’ve won only once. And when things look like they couldn’t be worse, the Chiefs allow a total of nearly 420 yards at home at Arrowhead Stadium. To give credit where credit is due, Kansas City has made some relatively impressive improvements offensively. This is mostly because QB Tyler Thigpen has seasoned. The Kansas City average for the year is a mere 288.6 yards per game, but has come along way over the last 3 games with an average of 351 yards per game. Early on, Thigpen was tripping over his own feet, but lately he has risen to a strong 66-102 for 710 yards. He has had 6 TDs and zero interceptions in those last three games. Thigpen’s passer rating jumped from the 50’s to 73.7 since then. Thigpen’s success should continue to excel here as they face another inadequate defense. While the Saints tore through the Falcon defense, and also did well overall, they are ranked 24th in total defense in the NFL, giving up an average of 348 yards per game. On the road, they give up an average of 380.2 yards per game, not including the London game vs. San Diego where they allowed 451 yards. New Orleans also allows an average of 25.4 points per game which places them at 24th in the league for points scored. We don’t expect Kansas City to have any trouble matching and exceeding that ,which would obviously put this game at the over. For some strange reason, this Over has not caught the public eye, which is usually the case in any over, but especially when New Orleans is involved. For the last 14 games, New Orleans is 11-2-1 for the over. Kansas City games have gone over in 8 of the last 10 games at home since last year. The bottom line, we should see another high-scoring game today! Take the New Orleans Saints/Kansas City Chiefs Over 50!
Dwayne Bryant
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Play: Dallas Cowboys -1.5
The Cowboys got a lot healthier during their bye week. Tony Romo will be back at QB and WR Roy Williams had two more weeks to learn the playbook. This offense, including Terrell Owens, Marion Barber and Jason Witten, should be downright scary. It won't help Washington that CB Shawn Springs will be less than 100% for this one. Dallas also needs this game in a big way. A loss would put them at 5-5 and in last place in the NFC East, two games out of second place.
The 'Skins strength has been the running of Clinton Portis. As Portis goes, so go the 'Skins. Well, Portis is banged up and will either be inactive or see very limited action at far less than 100%. If you can make a team one-dimensional, you can beat them most of the time. And the Cowboys have shown a good pass rush since Wade Phillips got more involved in the defense. The Cowboys also welcome back star CB Terrence Newman. The Redskins won the season's first meeting in Dallas and the Cowboys certainly remember. Here comes the payback.
Take the Dallas Cowboys -1.5
Yankee Capper
2 Units - Ravens/Giants Under 40
2 Units - Broncos/Falcons Over 51
3 Units - Hofstra -2
Wunderdog
Minnesota at Denver
Pick: OVER 201.5
Minnesota has dropped seven in a row to start the 2008 campaign. It doesn't get any easier tonight against Denver at the Pepsi Center. Minnesota isn't as horrible as their record suggests however as five of the seven losses have been close with two coming in overtime. If there's a weakness on this team it's certainly on the defensive end. The T-Wolves are giving up 103.4 per game (104.7 on the road). Over their last five games Minnesota has give up 109.6 per game while scoring 104! Denver, averaging 101.7 per game at home, will certainly score early and often in this one. And, while Denver's defense has improved since the Iverson-Billups trade, it's still far from great. The Nuggets are giving up 100 per game at home. In the favorite role, the Nugges are 77-51 OVER under George Karl as in these types of games, they like feel comfortable reverting to their run-and-gun. I see this one sailing OVER the total.