Mike Anthony
Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play:Minnesota Vikings +1
Jacksonville, for all intensive purposes, just lost their Super Bowl this past weekend. They had a chance to redeem themselves for a bad first half of the season and start a second half run. They were on their strong home field playing with revenge. They had the Titans on the ropes, leading by 11 at the half, but were unable to put their division rival away. Simply going to back the better team here in an underdog role in a game that they must have to stay in the playoff race. I expect a bit of a letdown here, as this team who’s been to the postseason 2 out of the past 3 seasons, is all bit eliminated this year.
The Jags simply aren’t the same team this season, and much of their fall can be attributed to an offensive line and problems with their QB Garrard who just doesn't look right.
Masterbets
Bet on the CARDINALS to cover the spread
There is a definite lack of talent out west in the NFL this year, as the AFC and NFC West are both the weakest in recent memory. The Cardinals are the only team capable of playing above .500 and yet they're still priced in as home dogs today. That's because the Giants are clearly the #2 ranked team in the NFL this season, and a very tough opponent. However, we feel that Arizona will win this game.
The Cardinals are undefeated at home and match up very well in this spot. They should be able to move the ball in the air with ease, and laying 3 points for the Giants looks like a piblic money trap play to us. Arizona have already impressed at home with big wins over the Cowboys and Bills (in a blowout) and we look for them to continue that run with an ATS cover today. Take the CARDINALS + the points.
Wunderdog
Carolina at Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -1
Atlanta dropped a tough game at home vs. Denver last week. One thing this team has been able to do is shake off a loss and come storming back the next week. The Falcons are 3-0 SU and ATS after a loss with a margin of winning of 17 ppg. I expect the Falcons to bring it here, especially given that this game is a huge measuring stick against the 8-2 Panthers. Yes, the Panthers are 8-2, but they have not beaten anyone of significance on the road all season. In their last game against Oakland on the road they were lucky to come away with a win, as they turned the ball over continuously. Atlanta is not Oakland and a similar performance will get the Panthers blown out of the building. Carolina scored just 30 points in their last three road games at Minnesota, Oakland and Tampa Bay. The three-game offensive output is not pretty as the Panthers totalled 705 yards, or just 235 yards per game. The Carolina defense has been stiff, but allows nearly 4 yards per carry on the ground. The Falcons should be able to move the chains, as their running game at home has been unstoppable, producing 160.4 ypg. This is a statement game for the Falcons, and the Panthers have shown vulnerability on the road. I'll grab the Falcons to get it done here.
Ben Burns
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
Playing for the first time in three games because of a broken pinkie, Tony Romo led Dallas to a much-needed 14-10 victory last Sunday night over the Washington Redskins, the team that first shattered the perceived invincibility of the Cowboys four weeks into the season. Romo completed 19 of 27 passes for 198 yards with a TD and will look to have an even better performance in front of the hometown crowd this Sunday. Although many have felt that the Cowboys are done for the year because of their recent slide, I'd caution against hitting the panic button too soon; at 6-4, Dallas is tied with Washington in the NFC East and Atlanta for a possible wild-card spot in the NFC playoffs. With a game against the grounded Seahawks next week, the Cowboys should be sitting with an 8-4 record heading into their next road game in Pittsburgh on December 7th. And while some may think this spread is too high, we can't overlook the fact that Dallas has actually performed extremely well in this situation; over the last three years the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS as a home favorite of 10 1/2 to 14 points! Sure the 49'ers are coming off a victory last week, but it was at home against the Rams, currently the worst team in the league. Obviously an "early" game Dallas is a whole different deal. In other words, this should be a blowout. Consider laying the points with Dallas.
SportsInsights
Tampa Bay Bucs vs Detroit Lions
Our offshore contacts circled this game because early "Sharp" action on Detroit moved the line from Detroit +9 down to Detroit +7.5. The current line is Detroit +7.5 but there are some +8.5's available. At this lower line, the betting percentage on "point spreads" is closer to 50% than we would expect -- but the bets on teasers/parlays are still overwhelmingly on Tampa Bay (to the tune of 76%). Thus: we'll "bet against the Public" and join the "Sharps" on the winless Detroit Lions.
At 0-10, the Lions are the league's doormat. Although the Lions are winless, their record ATS (against the spread) is a reasonable 4-6. As we know, the point spread is a great equalizer -- and in this case, getting more than a TD on Detroit -- as a home dog -- looks like it has some positive value.
Detroit Lions +8.5
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
A few years ago, you would never have thought that Atlanta would be involved in a key match-up between two of the NFL's stronger teams -- with playoff implications. And -- the Public STILL doesn't believe it. The Public loves the mighty Panthers in this game, with almost two out of every three bets taking the 8-2 Carolina Panthers.
The Atlanta Falcons have "quietly" gone 6-4 and are actually a very slight favorite at home. The sportsbooks are leaving the line at Atlanta -1 / Carolina +1 and seem to love taking all the action they can get on Carolina +1. We'll "bet against the Public" and join the side of the sportsbooks. This match-up pits an under-rated Atlanta squad against a Carolina team that has been red-hot all season. Let's "buy low and sell high" in this key divisional match-up.
Atlanta -1
New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals
The Giants have been hurting contrarian sports investors all season. The Giants have surpassed most sports fans' expectations and seem to be on a runaway path to the Superbowl. This game looks like a classic "bet against the Public" contrarian play. A huge five out of six bets (84%) are on the Superbowl Champion Giants to continue their dominating ways. And our readers know what that means: there is value going the other way!
In addition to "fading the Public" -- we have the added value of joining "Sharps" in this game. With almost every bet taking the Giants, the line actually moved in the other direction! The line opened at NY Giants -3.5 but actually declined to the Giants -3. This means that some "big money" has gotten down on Arizona and moved the line, offsetting the Public's smaller bets. Once again, we'll "sell" the Giants at their recent peak and try to grab some value on the Arizona Cardinals at home. The Giants have been lighting up the scoreboard with all of their W's -- but did you know that Arizona is in first place at 7-3? Take the Cardinals as a "real live dog."
Arizona +3
Platinum Plays
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
This Sunday we have a “matchup” of divisional leaders in the NFC of which I propose is really a mismatch. The (7-3) NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals will be hosting the current Super Bowl Champions and leader of the NFC East, the (9-1) New York Giants. We’ll give the Cardinals credit, they have finally achieved some of the results on the field which people have been predicting and expecting from them for the last couple of years. They have done so with Kurt Warner, the former NFL MVP and Super Bowl winning quarterback, who turned into a journeyman backup and now once again has been thrust into the starting position due to the failure of former 1st round draft choice and USC product, Matt Leinart. If nothing else, Warner has had one of the most interesting and controversial football careers in the history of the National Football league which at times has even been controversial due to his intense religious convictions and his wife’s big mouth. A roller coaster would be considered a ride in the tea cups when compared to the Warner’s job history and performance. Meanwhile, the Giants have fervently set about defending their Super Bowl Championship much like the team they defeated last February 3rd to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy, the New England Patriots, who won consectutive Super Bowls for the 2003 & 04 seasons. Considering the Giants meteroric ride late last season to win the NFL Championship, a letdown may have been expected but, let’s give coach Tom Coughlin credit for keeping the Giants level of play as high if not higher than last season’s finish despite the retirement of DE Michael Strahan in the offseason and the loss of DE Osi Umenyiora for year in the seasons first game. Umenyiora led the NFC in sacks last season with 13 sacks in the regular season.
The Cardinals possess the best wide receiver combination in the NFL with Anquan Boldin (back from injury) and Larry Fitzgerald. Teams may be able to slow down one of these talented wideouts but, the only way you’ll stop both of them is by stopping the quarterback. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt and offensive coordinator have done a masterful job of keeping Warner from harms way by utilizing 3 and 5 step quarterback drops in the passing game. High-price free agent Edgerrin James has been replaced by rookie RB Tim Hightower to anchor the running game while former first round draft choice, RB J.J. Arrington is finally starting to produce on the field as a mutli-talented weapon the team envisioned when they drafted him. Warner currently leads the NFL with a quarterback rating of 105.5 and only Drew Brees has thrown for more yards with not nearly the success of the Cardinals. The Cardinal defense really has no standout players and are led in tackles by LB’s Karlos Dansby and Gerald Hayes and S Adrian Wilson is noted as one of the hardest hitters in the NFL. The defense ranks middle of the pack in the NFC but, being at a +5 in the turnover department has aided their cause.
The Giants have proved their run at the end of last season wasn’t a fluke and if nothing else, have proved they were a team that gelled rather than a team that got hot at the right time. What’s most impressive about this year’s Giants team their depth and the ability to overcome injuries (like Umenyiora) and the distractions provided by the likes of TE Jeremy Shockey (traded) and WR Plaxico Burress (suspended). Eli Manning may not be as good as his brother Peyton but, he’s definitely closed the gap between them, improved this decision making and has a longer future in front of him. The loss of both your Super Bowl starting defensive ends would be devasting to most teams but the Giants just moved LB Mathias Kiwanuka back to his college position and the other defensive end, Justin Tuck has upped his level of play to be considered one of the top players at his position in the league. The Giants have three running backs Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw who will attack and beat you in different ways on the ground. Second year WR Steve Smith looks light years ahead of last year and has become a favorite target of Manning. The enigmatic Burress may be a distractions but, can produce with the best of them on the field. The Giants defense ranks third in the NFC and has a +7 turnover ratio. However, most of the credit has to go to head coach Tom Coughlin was on the verge of being fired and ripped in the press by former Giant RB Tiki Barber to turning this team and his career around into one of the most feared teams in the NFL.
The Giants are the best team in the league and could well repeat as champions while the Cardinals have benefitted from playing in the very weak NFC West and cleaning up on their weak schedule. They may very well play with the Giants this Sunday being a home game and all but, don’t kid yourself they could actually give the Giants a run in the playoffs. The current line for this game is the Giants - 3½ with a total of 49. The Cardinals will find out what it’s like to play against a top notch defense and this game will stay under the 49 points.
#1 Sports
Eagles @ Ravens
Philadelphia (5-4-1) Eagle fans – a warm and cuddly bunch by nature – have been screaming for heads since their crew finished with a 13-13 tie on Sunday at Cincinnati in which Coach Andy Reid continued to ignore the running game (23 passes vs. 5 rushes first half) and QB Donovan McNabb (227 of 382 for 2711 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT) threw 30 incomplete passes (28 of 58 for 339 yards, TD, 3 INT) including 3 caught by Bengals plus added a lost fumble. Further fueling the fire was the fact that many Philadelphia players – not just 10-year veteran McNabb – had no idea that no second overtime was waiting after the first extra frame expired in a deadlock! OK, with many connections to pro and college players over the years we can attest that these guys know more about coverages, systems, and schemes than what 98% of the viewers think they are seeing during a play but when it comes to the more geekafied points like statistics, records, and the more esoteric rules they are clueless compared to the average Arm-Chair Charlie. Counting ourselves in the Charlie group, combined with time spent around these guys, this seemingly odd hole in their knowledge came as absolutely no surprise to us. The comparisons of football to the military have been done (ground attack, aerial assault, gridiron, scrimmage, the bomb, flanker, field general, and many more) and these players see their job as playing the game, with the best teams those that most consistently and without question execute the strategy of the coaching staff whom holds the responsibility for these finer points. Anyway, every Charlie knows you have to run the ball in this league to win championships and Philadelphia just doesn’t consistently. 95.3 yards per game on the ground ranks 25th in the NFL and with an offensive line led by 6’7” 335 LT Tra Thomas (160 career starts) and 6’7” 330 LT Jon Runyan there’s just no lack of talent or beef to pound out the yards. Sure, 3rd-year 6’3” 338 RG Max Jean-Gilles is playing for Shane Andrews (out recovering from back surgery) but with a solid 4-0 yards per rush through 11 games, play calling is the only thing stooping RB Brian Westbrook (123 for 508 and 6 TD) and RB Correll Buckhalter (57 for 233 and 2 TD). At least Reid gets this pair of superb all-around athletes the ball in the passing game (combined 53 catches for 465 yards and 3 TD) but there just is no substitute for lining up and pounding the ball for what it can yield later in the game. As one would expect, the stat sheets for most of Philly’s receivers are filled but we are impressed by the job done by backup 6’4” 255 2nd-year TE Brent Celek (17 for 239 yards) and 5’10” 175 rookie WR DeSean Jackson (42 for 652 and TD receiving, 12 for 80 and TD rushing, 10.3 per punt return and TD) who has seized a starting job over Reggie Brown (13 for 192 and TD) and others.
Philadelphia’s defense certainly did their job on Sunday, holding the Bengals to just 282 net yards over 5 quarters while allowing just four 3rd-down conversions in twenty attempts and racking up 8 sacks of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The line of 6’2” 250 LDE Junqua Parker (32 T, 5 S, INT, FR), 6’0” 292 LDT Mike Patterson (24 T, INT), 6’2” 306 RDT Brodrick Bunkley (33 T, 2 S), and 6’3” 270 RDE Trent Cole (51 T, 6 S, 2 FR) are young and full of energy that lasts to the whistle, giving a veteran guy like 9th-year Darren Howard (18 T, 8 S, INT) the luxury of entering for passing situations fresh and ready to terrorize the pocket. The backer group of 6’3” 263 SLB Chris Gocong (35 T, 2 S, FR), 6’4” 255 MLB Stewart Bradley (76 T, S, FR), and 6’2” 245 WLB Omar Gaither (54 T, 2 S, FR) are also very young (combined 5 combined pro years of experience entering 2008) and are huge by NFL standards in the 4-3 alignment. We especially like the hammer that Bradley brings in the middle and he led the team in tackles again last week with a dozen. Health of the eagle stoppers has been a real key to holding opponents to 19.3 on 292.7 yards per game and nowhere has it been more important than in the backfield where injuries have been overwhelming the last couple of years. Corners Asante Samuel (26 T, 3 INT) and Sheldon Brown (31 T, S, FR) plus safeties Quinten Mikell (59 T, 2 INT, S, FR, 24.1 yards per kick return) and Brain Dawkins (50 T, 2 S, 3 FR) make up the most productive group in football, given a huge assist from the pressure up front that has yielded 36 team sacks. And how about players like Lito Sheppard (17 T, INT, FR) and Sean Considine (19 T) to fill out your nickel and dime! K David Akers has been as accurate as ever with 22 makes in 26 field goal attempts but at 0-3 from 50+ the cannon is gone.
Baltimore (6-4) Giants’ beast of a back Brandon Jacobs busted off a 36-yard run on New York’s first play from scrimmage last week, setting the pace for an absolute bullying of John Harbaugh’s team that finished 30-10 with 207 yards surrendered on the ground by the Ravens’ defense, ending a 4-game win streak. The defending Super Bowl Champions can make anyone look bad but it also appears that the injuries are starting to catch up with these stoppers. Eight Raven defenders have been put on Injured Reserve this season including LB Prescott Burgess, NT Kelly Gregg, SS Dawan Landry, and Chris McAlister plus defensive backs Samari Rolle and Fabian Washington have each missed significant time. Overall, the numbers are still superior with 18.0 points and 267.9 yards allowed per game with only 79.6 of those yards yielded on the ground at 3.4 yards per carry plus it appears that 6’0” 175 RCB Rolle (10 T, 2 INT) is back to health. In just his second game back from neck surgery he held 6’5” Plaxico Burress to just 3 grabs for 47 yards – all the more important since Defensive Backs Coach Mark Carrier’s remaining unit of SS Jim Leonard (42 T, S, 10.8 yards per punt return, 21.6 yards per kick return), FS ED Reed (23 T, INT), LCB Frank Walker (23 T, INT, FR), CB Fabian Washington (20 T), and CB Corey Ivy (34 T, INT, FR) all measure in under 6-feet tall. That all being noted, Baltimore’s 3-4 front is still just as tough as nail and produces enough big plays to turn a game. LDE Trevor Pryce (18 T, 4 S), NT Justin Bannan (32 T, S, INT), and RDE Haloti Ngata (34 T, S, 2 INT) plus backup end Marques Douglass (24 T) hold the point and deflect a ton of passes, a huge factor in the backers and linemen snaring 8 of the team’s 15 picks this season including 3 in the last 2 games by LILB Ray Lewis (73 T, S, 3 INT, FR). After the whooping they took last week, Lewis will have fellow LBs ROLB Terrell Suggs (46 T, 5 S, 2 INT, FR), RILB Bart Scott (49 T, S, FR), and LOLB Jarrett Johnson (37 T, 3 S, FR) hungry for blood.
Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron has put together a game plan this season, built around protecting rookie QB Joe Flacco (171 of 276 for 1813 yards, 8 D, 9 INT) and grinding down the clock (33:48 minutes to 26:48). The numbers so far are 22.2 points on 318.3 yards per game, which aren’t going to win Cameron any awards but he clearly understands his personnel. Six offensive linemen plus TE Todd Heap (21 for 211 and 2 TD) isn’t just the “heavy” or “max protect” package for Baltimore but actually their base alignment and injuries have hit this crew as well lately. Starters RT Adam Terry has been battling through, LT Adam Gaither suffered a back injury against the Giants, and Willie Anderson missed last game with a knee injury. All have a shot to go this week but if not, rookies 6’4” 310 T Oneil Cousins and 6’6” 315 G David Hale are on the clock. With 146.8 yards per game at 4.0 yards per rush and 13 scores on the ground, clearly rushing the ball is the first option for Baltimore and the stable of Willis McGahee (134 for 481 and 5 TD), LeRon McClain (99 for 371 and 5 TD), and Ray Rice (85 for 375) have all been strong but they also make up a big part of the passing game as well. Cameron’s conservative approach has racked 59 grabs out of the backfield for 460 yards and a score, making up more than a third of the touches through the air. The numbers for Heap and 5’10” 190 WR Mark Clayton (21 for 235 and TD) have suffered greatly this season but 5’10” 192 Derrick Mason (53 for 680 and 2 TD) has been all-world. OK, so some fantasy players might be grumbling about just a pair of touchdowns but this young man played through a dislocated shoulder again this week and bagged a team-best 7 more catches for 82 yards. The NFL’s 3rd-most career accurate kicker Matt Stover broke the league’s all-time mark with his 372nd straight made extra point against the Giants but has connected with on just 13 of 18 field goal attempts this year and had a 32-yarder blocked by New York.
SELECTION: The Eagles are the better of these 2 franchises right now and playing on the road may be a blessing with the fans from the “City of Brotherly Love” in full freak-out mode. Health is a major factor in this match up and no one bounces back easily after a beating at the hand s of the physical Giants. Ask, the Eagles. They lost to the champs in a brutal 31-36 game the week before Cincinnati. Take Philadelphia – 2.
Alex Smart
Detroit Lions +9.0
The Detroit Lions enter into this home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a ugly 0-10 record and are in jeopardy of a winless season. With that in mind , the best word to describe the Lions situation would be desperation.
The public looks at the Lions, as bottom feeders, and are not likely to back them even as 9 point home dogs. Despite of what Joe the Plumber thinks, this MoTown gridiron crew has been fairly competitive this season, covering 4 of their 10 losses, so they are not completely inept as far as veteran bettors are concerned and deserve fair consideration in this spot.
The Lions have Tennessee, Minnesota , Indianapolis, New Orleans and Green Bay left on their schedule this week, and know that this is their best chance at a getting an elusive win , and will play like it here today.
Final notes & Key Trends: Tampa Bay has failed to cover 13 of their L/16 against a lower tier team that has been out scored by 10 or more points per game.
Plug your nose, and pull the trigger on the Detroit Lions to cover -Projected score: Detroit 20 Tampa Bay 17
LT Profits
Detroit Lions +8.0
The Detroit Lions may be 0-10 straight up, but winless teams in the NFL do very well against the spread this time of year, so the 7-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be walking into an ambush here.
NFL teams that are 0-4 SU or worse have gone 49-25 ATS since the 200 season, those that are 0-10 or worse have gone 7-2 ATS and those that are exactly 0-10 have gone 3-0 ATS in Week 11 during this timeframe.
Besides, to their credit, the Lions have not quit on the field, going 4-2 ATS since they reached the 0-4 mark. They have played their hearts out, having a chance to win five of those last six games, and even in the game that became a blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars Detroit had the lead in the second quarter.
Now the Buccaneers may be 7-3, but their tendency to turn ultra-conservative when they get a lead and rely on their fantastic defense makes them a dicey proposition laying more than a touchdown. This is especially true on the road, where Tampa Bay is only 2-3 and have actually been outscored by -1.0 points per game.
We look for the Lions to give their all yet again, and even if there effort falls short and they go to 0-11, we feel that this spread provides enough of a cushion to get the cover this week.
Pick: Lions +8
John Ryan
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play:Arizona +3
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Arizona - AiS shows a 75% probability that Arizona will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. AiS shows an 82% probability that Arizona will score a MINIMUM of 21 or more points. note that Arizona is 10-1 ATS last 3 seasons and 28-12 ATS since 1992 when they score 22 to 28 points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 68-34 ATS for 67% since 1983. Play against road favorites off a home win by 10 points or more facing an opponent off a road win. Arizona is in a series of strong roles for this game noting they are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 season; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. Even Giants HC Coughlin is not in a strong role for this game noting that he is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Arizona
Nelly
New England – over Miami
The Patriots could not pull out a win last week and all of a sudden Miami is tied with New England at 6-4. The Patriots were soundly defeated in the first meeting between these teams and Miami has been very unimpressive in narrow wins against bad teams in recent weeks. New England has not lost consecutive games all season long and Miami is just 3-11 ATS in the last 14 home games with a very limited home field edge. Miami has an easy schedule ahead and could still make a playoff push but the Patriots tend to deliver in these types of games. This appears to be an obvious spot for New England and with curious line activity given the one-sided public action on this game, only a light play is warranted.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Arizona Cardinals
A possible playoff preview in the desert matches a pair of Top 10 ranked offenses and defenses. Big Blue’s road success is well documented (12-2 SU and ATS away since last season) and they are riding a 5-game SU and ATS win skein entering this contest. Arizona has outgained all four opponents since its Bye Week and has won each of its last 7 home games (4-0 this season). With Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas up next for the G-Men, look for the Cardinals to have their day in the sun (provided the roof is open) as New York drops to 2-16 ATS in November off a non-division game against an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Zona wins the first round.
Greg Daraban
Buffalo at Kansas City
The Bills now on terrible skid losing. The Chiefs athough just 1 win are actually playing better than Buffalo losing
by 4 losing by 3 losing by 1, and losing by 10 to an undefeated Tennessee team in the last 4 weeks.The Bills have lost 4 straight including a Monday Night Loss at home to Cleveland.Take Kansas City
Jimmy The Moose
Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Over
The Warriors have played the over in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Warriors are averaging 105.4 PPG while giving up 106.1. The over is 5-1 in their last 6 games played with 1 day rest between action. In their last 9 games following a loss the over is 7-2. The 76ers have the potential to put up big offensiver numbers and today vs. a weak Golden State D expect that to happen. At home Phialdelphia averages 100.7 PPG and they will score at will vs. a Warriors D that allows 103.4 PPG on the road. Look for a wide open, high-scoring games this evening. Play the over.
MTi Sports
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Houston Texans
The Browns have been favored twice this season and they lost both games straight up. There?s a good chance that they?ll lose this one too.
Houston is a much better team than their record indicates and the Browns are actually not as good as their 4-6 record. The Texans are a very nice 5-0 ATS as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they off a loss as a dog. They were getting at least a field goal in all five games and were 4-1 straight up. Their only loss was a 10-14 setback in NY vs the Giants as a 12 point dog.
Last week the Colts converted 10 of 15 third down attempts against Houston and this is actually a positive sign for the Texans. In franchise history, Houston is 4-0 ATS as a road after a road game in which they allowed their opponent to convert at least 50% of their third downs. They were getting at leas a TD every time, yet they are 3-1 straight up-, with their only loss as a 17 point dog to the Colts in 2005. In short, Houston has beaten a lot better teams than the Browns in this spot. Grab the points.