Dave Malinsky
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: 4* Over 42
We were not sure that we would ever be using the following phrase this season – “The Kansas City offense is providing a major headache for their opponent this week”, but we indeed have that here. And on a warm afternoon in the Midwest, it means that the points come easily in this one.
As each week goes by with Tyler Thigpen as the starting QB we are seeing the Chiefs get more comfortable in their new offensive designs. Thigpen’s mobility enables them to spread the field and get a lot of receivers out into coverage, and he is doing a solid job of finding them – over the last four games the offense has averaged 22.5 points, and Thigpen completed 85-140 passes for 945 yards in that span, with a sparkling ratio of eight touchdown passes vs. only one interception. And with Larry Johnson having had some game contact to get his timing back, there will also be a run balance that has been lacking for much of the stretch.
That style of play creates major headaches for the Bills. Not only do they have to travel off of a short practice week, hich makes adjusting to these new looks difficult enough, but they will be missing starters Donte Whitner and Jabari Greer in the secondary, and possibly Bryan Scott, Whitner’s back-up, as well. For a team that has struggled all season to get a pass rush (only 15 sacks in 333 opposing pass plays), that disheveled secondary is going to be hard-pressed throughout the game, especially since Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe, who each have 55 receptions already, can beat just about anyone man-to-man that Dick Jauron has at his disposal.
Jauron’s team can still win here, however, because they can score on their own. The Kansas City defense continues to shuffle lineups each week, and lacks both talent and chemistry. The Chiefs are simply without a strength, lacking the ability to stop the run (1,654 yards and 16 rushing TD’s at 5.1 per carry); rush the passer (six sacks in 316 pass plays); or cover receivers (65.8 percent completions and 7.77 yards allowed per pass). It is the ideal unit for Trent Edwards to get his confidence back, which turns this into a game dominated by the offenses.
Game Time Sports Advisors
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Carolina Panthers +1
Panthers played down last 2 weeks, squeaking out wins against the Lions and Raiders. Make no mistake, they will be ready here. HC John Fox as a road dog, 50-31 ATS including 20-7 ATS when the number is less than 7. Panthers are 5-2 ATS last 7 and 3-0-1 ATS in Atlanta. Another good trend is that Carolina is 9-0 ATS as dogs in first games of back to back roadies. Panthers D will stuff Falcons RBs and force rookie QB Ryan into a bad throw. That will be the difference maker here.
Cajun Sports
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Over 42
The winless Detroit Lions play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon. The Lions are off a 31 to 22 loss at the Carolina Panthers last Sunday while the Buccaneers defeated the Minnesota Vikings 19 to 13 in Cigar City.
Lions QB Daunte Culpepper has two 300-yard passing games in his career versus the Buccaneers. Rookie RB Kevin Smith leads the Lions with 513 yards rushing and he has five rushing touchdowns on the season. WR Calvin Johnson has a TD in five of his last six games. He leads the club with 45 receptions for 839 yards (18.6 avg) and seven touchdowns on the year.
Buccaneers QB Jeff Garcia has completed 78 of 107 (72.9%) passes for 804 yards and seven touchdowns (3 INTs) for a QB rating of 104.3 in three starts versus the Lions. Bucs RB Earnest Graham rushed for 92 yards and had a career-best 13 receptions and 99 yards receiving in the last meeting with the Lions.
The Lions average 276.9 yards per game on offense which this number should increase and they should become more productive with Culpepper under center. The Lions defense allows 401.7 yards per game. We know that the Buccaneers are 21-2 Over when they gain 400 or more yards since 1992. The Bucs average 351.6 yards per game on offense while their defense allows 281.5 yards of total offense per game. Detroit is 41-21 Over when they allow 350 to 400 yards of total offense in a game since 1992.
The Bucs average scoring 20.0 points per game when playing in a Dome stadium and their defense allows 24.0 points per game. The Lions average 19.7 points per game and their defense allows 32.0 points per game over their last three contests.
The fact the Lions are winless this late in the season triggers a technical situation on home underdogs of 3 or more points, these dogs have gone Over the posted total in 6 of 7 games the last ten seasons. We also know that home dome teams in game nine or later are 27-8-1 Over the last three seasons and if it’s a non-division contest that record improves to 16-4 Over.
NFL teams are 41-25-3 Over when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. NFL teams are 26-9 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. NFL teams are 43-18-3 Over when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. NFL teams are 22-8 Over on the road after a win at home as a favorite in which they were losing at the half.
NFL teams are 73-44-6 Over at home after playing as a dog. NFL teams are 12-2 Over as a 7+ dog the week after on the road as a TD+ dog in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 60-38-4 Over as a dog versus any team with more wins after a straight up loss. NFL teams are 123-82-10 Over after a straight up loss. NFL teams are 31-16 Over when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average.
With strong situational and technical support we will make the “Over” in this contest our 2* NFL “Free” Total Game of the Week Selection.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Tampa Bay / Detroit OVER 42
Scott Ferrall
HOUSTON +3 from Cleveland-I say Andre Johnson has a big game at the dog pound
BEARS -7.5 to Rams--St.Louis can't do anything right
ATLANTA -1 to Carolina--Falcons aren't dropping two straight at home and all the bettors are on the Panthers
DENVER -9.5 to Oakland--I think the Raiders get stomped by Cutler's arm in this one at Mile High
Norm Hitzges
Triple Play--Green Bay +2.5 vs New Orleans
Double Plays
Tennessee -5.5 vs NY Jats
Arizona/NY Giants Over 48
Single Plays
Kansas City +3 vs Buffalo
Detroit +8 vs Tampa Bay
Chicago -8 vs St. Louis
Cleveland/Houston Over 50
St. Louis/Chicago Over 43
Green Bay/New Orleans Over 51.5
Wild Bill
Over 48 1/2 Houston-Browns (5 units)
Bills -3 (5 units)
Jets +6 (5 units)
Detroit +8 1/2 (5 units)
NFL Game of YEAR: Eagles +1 1/2 (5 units)
Vikings +2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 42 1/2 Carolina-Falcons (5 units)
Redskins -3 (5 units)
Arizona +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 48 1/2 Giants-AZ (5 units)
Colts +3 (5 units)
Packers +3 (5 units)
Over 53 Packers-Saints (5 units)
Dwayne Bryant
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Play New England Patriots +1
How much do you think the Patriots have been waiting for this rematch? Two months ago, the Patriots were humiliated on their home field by these Dolphins, 38-13. Miami unveiled the "Wildcat" formation that day, which led to all the Dolphins' points. You know how the saying goes: "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." My money says Bill Belichick will not be fooled a second time. That New England defense will be fired up and they will shut down Miami's offense. Matt Cassel is improving and he'll make enough plays to his weapons (mainly Moss and Welker) to get revenge in this one. Don't be surprised if Belichick has some tricks up his proverbial sleeves.
Take the New England Patriots +1
DUNKEL
Minnesota at Detroit
The Pistons look to bounce back from their loss in Boston and take advantage of a Minnesota team that has lost nine of its last 10. Detroit is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pistons favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-10 1/2).
Game 501-502: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston
Dunkel Line & Total:
Vegas Line & Total:
Dunkel Pick:
Game 503-504: Golden State at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.246; Philadelphia 122.885
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 10 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-6 1/2);
Game 505-506: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 111.803; Detroit 125.638
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 14;
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 10 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-10 1/2);
Game 507-508: Chicago at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago
Dunkel Line & Total:
Vegas Line & Total:
Dunkel Pick:
Game 509-510: Sacramento at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 114.758; LA Lakers 129.202
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 14 1/2;
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 16 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+16 1/2);
NCAAB
Virginia Tech vs. Seton Hall
The Hokies are 27-13 ATS on a neutral court since 1997 and face a Seton Hall team that is 1-5 ATS as a neutral court underdog between 3 1/2 and 6 points. Virginia Tech is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hokies favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-5 1/2).
Game 511-512: St. Bonaventure at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 56.020; Rutgers 61.576
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (+10 1/2)
Game 513-514: NC Wilmington at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 53.601; Kent State 69.553
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 16
Vegas Line: Kent State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-14)
Game 515-516: North Texas at Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 53.611; Indiana State 60.322
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 7
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+4)
Game 517-518: Pepperdine at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 42.174; Arizona State 72.587
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 30 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 25
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-25)
Game 519-520: Illinois State at SMU
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 60.982; SMU 51.393
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 521-522: Portland at UC Davis
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 49.336; UC Davis 52.775
Dunkel Line: UC Davis by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: UC Davis
Game 523-524: Fairfield vs. TN Chattanooga
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 51.168; TN Chattanooga 47.470
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-2 1/2)
Game 525-526: Missouri vs. USC
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 64.496; USC 69.726
Dunkel Line: USC by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-1 1/2)
Game 527-528: Virginia Tech vs. Seton Hall
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 67.639; Seton Hall 59.455
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 8
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-5 1/2)
Game 529-530: Xavier vs. Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 70.336; Memphis 73.229
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 3
Vegas Line: Memphis by 5
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (+5)
Game 531-532: Morgan State vs. WI-Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 48.816; WI-Green Bay 53.869
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 533-534: Marshall vs. Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 52.828; Mississippi 64.916
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 12
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 535-536: Miami (FL) vs. Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 68.714; Connecticut 70.266
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 5
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+5)
Game 537-538: San Diego vs. Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 66.220; Wisconsin 66.449
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 4
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+4)
Game 539-540: Florida A&M vs. Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: Florida A&M 37.234; Morehead State 43.186
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 541-542: South Alabama at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 57.066; Louisville 80.767
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 24
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 543-544: Montana at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 45.089; Duke 78.559
Dunkel Line: Duke by 33 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 29
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-29)
Game 545-546: Furman at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 43.220; Duquesne 60.309
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 17
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 14
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (-14)
Game 547-548: CS-Fullerton at Portland State
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 59.539; Portland State 63.408
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 4
Vegas Line: Portland State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-7)
Game 549-550: Delaware at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 48.388; Marist 56.618
Dunkel Line: Marist by 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 551-552: Wofford at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 45.795; Air Force 60.606
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 15
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NFL
Game 195-196: Houston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 127.462; Cleveland 133.139
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3); Under
Game 197-198: Buffalo at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.299; Kansas City 127.180
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under
Game 199-200: NY Jets at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 137.789; Tennessee 140.742
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+5 1/2); Under
Game 201-202: New England at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: New England 134.614; Miami 131.462
Dunkel Line: New England by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 42
Dunkel Pick: New England (+1); Over
Game 203-204: San Francisco at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 122.102; Dallas 135.692
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 13 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10); Over
Game 205-206: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 130.466; Detroit 124.378
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 37
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 8; 42
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+8); Under
Game 207-208: Philadelphia at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.778; Baltimore 138.350
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Pick; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore; Under
Game 209-210: Chicago at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 128.879; St. Louis 122.452
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Chicago by 8; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+8); Under
Game 211-212: Minnesota at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.092; Jacksonville 135.077
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-2); Under
Game 213-214: Carolina at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 134.604; Atlanta 138.774
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Over
Game 215-216: Oakland at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.075; Denver 133.624
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Denver by 9; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-9); Over
Game 217-218: Washington at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.474; Seattle 129.557
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2); Over
Game 219-220: NY Giants at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 142.248; Arizona 136.314
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Under
Game 221-222: Indianapolis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.991; San Diego 135.242
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 54
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3); Over
SPORTS ADVISORS
Houston (3-7 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (4-6, 6-4 ATS)
The Browns, coming off their first win with QB Brady Quinn at the helm, will try to make it two in a row when they take on the Texans at Cleveland Stadium.
Cleveland edged Buffalo 29-27 Monday night as a 4½-point road underdog, halting a two-game SU and ATS skid. Quinn’s effort was hardly noteworthy, as he completed just 14 of 36 passes for 185 yards, but he led a turnover-free effort for the Browns, and that was the difference, as Cleveland picked off Trent Edwards three times and finished with a 4-0 edge in takeaways.
Houston lost to Indianapolis 33-27 for its third straight setback, but the Texans got the cash as a nine-point road pup to snap a two-game ATS skid. QB Sage Rosenfels (13 of 18, 192 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent outing, though his INT came on Houston’s final drive, and RB Steve Slaton racked up 156 yards on just 14 carries, including a 71-yard TD jaunt.
These teams have met in each of the past four seasons, with each going 2-2 SU and ATS. Last November, Cleveland claimed a 27-17 win as a 3½-point home chalk. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Despite their sub-.500 SU mark, the Browns are on a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 18-7 overall, 7-2 against losing teams, 9-3 at home, 7-3 after a SU win and 9-4 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Texans are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 2-5 after a SU loss, 3-9 on the highway and 6-12 as a road ‘dog.
The under for Cleveland is on streaks of 11-5 overall and 5-0 against losing teams, and the total has gone low in the last four meetings between these two teams. But the over for Houston is on stretches of 22-8-1 overall, 9-1 against AFC foes and 12-2-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Buffalo (5-5, 4-6 ATS) at Kansas City (1-9, 5-5 ATS)
The freefalling Bills hope to get their season back on track with a trip to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the lowly Chiefs.
Buffalo overcame a 23-13 fourth-quarter deficit against Cleveland but couldn’t quite seal the deal in a 29-27 Monday night setback as a 4½-point home favorite, their fourth consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Trent Edwards (16 of 26, 148 yards, 1 TD) was awful, throwing three INTs, including two in the first quarter. The Bills rallied to take a 27-26 lead, fell behind on Phil Dawson’s 56-yard field goal, then lost when Rian Lindell’s 47-yard field goal went wide right.
Kansas City lost to New Orleans 30-20 catching six points at home in suffering its sixth consecutive SU setback, and the loss also ended a 3-0 ATS surge for the Chiefs. QB Tyler Thigpen (19 of 38, 235 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was fair, and he added 45 yards rushing on three carries. The Chiefs had two drives stall inside the 10-yard line, settling for field goals both times.
Buffalo is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) in the last four clashes with Kansas City, most recently taking a 14-3 home victory giving 2½ points in 2005.
The Bills have failed to cash in their last five November starts, but they are on ATS runs of 23-6-1 against losing teams and 6-2 as a non-division favorite. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against AFC foes, but they are on ATS downfalls of 2-8 at home and 14-29 in November.
The over for Kansas City is on an 8-3 run at Arrowhead, but the under for Buffalo is on streaks of 6-2 in roadies and 11-5 against losing teams, and in this rivalry, the under is on runs of 6-0 overall and 4-0 in K.C.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
N.Y. Jets (7-3, 6-4 ATS) at Tennessee (10-0, 9-1 ATS)
The torrid Titans look to keep their unbeaten season going when they face the surging Jets at LP Field.
Tennessee overcame a 14-3 halftime deficit to roll past Jacksonville 24-14 as a one-point road chalk, giving the SU winner a 17-2-1 ATS mark in the Titans’ last 20 games. QB Kerry Collins made the most of a limited number of completions, going just 13 of 30, but getting 230 yards and three TDs out of the effort. The Titans defense yielded just 257 total yards, while the offense finished with 344 as Jeff Fisher’s team won its 13th consecutive regular-season game (11-2 ATS).
New York upended New England 34-31 in overtime as a three-point road ‘dog in the Thursday night contest, winning for the fourth straight week and covering for the third week in a row. QB Brett Favre (26 of 33, 258 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid, RB Thomas Jones (30 carries, 104 yards, 1 TD) had a good effort, and the Jets bounced back in OT despite blowing a 24-6 second-quarter lead.
New York has gone 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) in three meetings this decade with Tennessee, losing 10-6 last December but covering as a nine-point road pup.
Along with their ongoing 11-2 ATS streak, the Titans are on pointspread upticks of 7-0 against the AFC, 9-1 on grass, 9-1 after a SU win, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 at home. Likewise, the Jets are on several ATS runs, including 5-2 overall, 6-1 in November, 5-1 against winning teams and 6-2 on the road.
The under for Tennessee is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 in November, 5-0 against winning teams and 15-5-1 after a SU win. The over is 5-2-1 in New York’s last eight games, but the under is on stretches of 9-2 after an ATS win, 7-2-1 after a SU win, 6-2-1 against winning teams and 8-3-1 in
AFC contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
New England (6-4, 5-5 ATS) at Miami (6-4, 5-5 ATS)
The Patriots will be seeking revenge for an early-season blowout loss when they head to South Beach to take on the Dolphins.
New England lost to the Jets 34-31 in overtime as a three-point home chalk in a Thursday contest. QB Matt Cassel (30 of 51, 400 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 62 rushing yards) had a career day as he rallied the Patriots from a 24-6 second-quarter deficit, but the Jets got the ball first in OT and drove for the game-winning field goal. New England outgained the Jets 511-375, but had 11 minutes less in time of possession.
Miami barely held off Oakland 17-15 as a 10-point home favorite, nabbing its fourth consecutive win but failing to cover as a big chalk for the second straight week. QB Chad Pennington (16 of 22, 174 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had a clean game, and RB Ronnie Brown (16 carries, 101 yards) paced a running attack that netted 222 yards, helping the Dolphins post a 382-199 total yardage edge.
Miami thumped New England 38-13 as an overwhelming 12½-point road pup in September and has now cashed in three of the last four meetings (2-2 SU). The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes in Miami, though the visitor in this AFC East rivalry is on a 5-2 ATS streak.
The Patriots are on a 5-11 ATS slide in their last 16 games, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 10-1 after a SU loss, 15-2 after losing a division contest, 4-0 after a pointspread setback and 16-6 on the road. The Dolphins are on ATS freefalls of 4-14 in home division games, 4-21 as a home chalk, 6-20-2 in AFC East contests and 12-31-1 at home.
The under for New England is on runs of 4-1-1 overall and 9-2-2 against AFC foes, and the under for Miami is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 7-0 in November, 9-1 after a SU win and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
San Francisco (3-7, 4-6 ATS) at Dallas (6-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Cowboys, aiming to build on last week’s much-needed win, take on the struggling 49ers at Texas Stadium.
Dallas topped Washington 14-10 last week as a one-point road chalk in QB Tony Romo’s return from a broken pinkie. The win and cover stemmed a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS slide for the Cowboys. Romo (19 of 27, 198 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) struggled a bit, but he led a 67-yard fourth-quarter drive, throwing a 25-yard TD strike to Martellus Bennett to put Dallas ahead. RB Marion Barber (24 carries, 114 yards, 1 TD) had a strong outing, and the Cowboys defense allowed just 228 yards.
San Francisco whipped St. Louis 35-16 laying seven points at home, giving the SU winner a sterling 20-1 ATS mark in the 49ers’ last 21 games (9-1 ATS this year). QB Shaun Hill (15 of 20, 213 yards, 2 TDs) was efficient and effective, with no turnovers, and RB Frank Gore (18 carries, 106 yards, 2 TDs) had a strong game as San Fran scored all its points in the first half, taking a 35-3 lead.
These two teams have split their last four meetings, with San Francisco going 2-1-1 ATS. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven matchups.
Despite last week’s effort, the Cowboys are still on ATS plunges of 4-11 overall, 0-4 against losing teams, 1-5 at home and 2-7 as a double-digit chalk, but they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 November starts. The Niners are on a 7-3 ATS run in November games, but the pointspread trends are negative from there, including 2-5 overall, 6-13 against the NFC, 3-8 on the road and 2-6 against winning teams.
The over for Dallas is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 16-5-2 after a spread-cover and 6-2 in November, and the over for San Francisco is on runs of 5-1 overall, 5-1 on grass and 6-2-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall and 4-0 in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Tampa Bay (7-3, 6-4 ATS) at Detroit (0-10, 4-6 ATS)
The Buccaneers travel to Ford Field seeking their third straight win while trying to keep the hapless Lions winless.
Tampa Bay topped Minnesota 19-13 as a 4½-point home chalk, snapping a three-game ATS downfall. QB Jeff Garcia (23 of 30, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) led the Bucs on three second-half scoring drives (1 TD, 2 FGs), and the Tampa defense shut out the Vikings in the second half and allowed just 210 total yards, while the Bucs finished with 363.
Detroit lost to Carolina 31-22 but got the cash as a 14-point road underdog, moving to 4-2 ATS in its last six games. QB Daunte Culpepper (20 of 35, 207 yards, 1 TD) helped Detroit to an early 10-0 lead, but he threw two INTs, and the Lions lost the turnover battle 4-1. Detroit also allowed two 100-yard rushers – Jonathan Stewart (15 carries, 130 yards, 1 TD) and DeAngelo Williams (14 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs).
Detroit is on a 6-0 ATS tear (2-4 SU) in this NFC rivalry, including a 23-16 home win last season as a 2½ point favorite. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in Detroit, and the underdog is on a 5-1 ATS surge.
The Bucs are on ATS slides of 0-4 against losing teams, 2-5 on the highway and 2-10 laying points on the road, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five November starts, 4-1 ATS after a spread-cover and 5-2 ATS against NFC opponents. The Lions, who are 1-17 SU in their last 18 games (5-13 ATS), are on several pointspread declines, including 0-5 at home, 1-5 after a spread-cover, 4-10 against the NFC and 3-7 in November.
The under is 5-1 in Tampa Bay’s last six games overall and is on a 4-1 run in this rivalry, but the over has hit in seven of the Bucs’ last nine roadies, and the over for Detroit is on sprees of 4-0-1 overall, 7-0-1 against winning teams and 5-1-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (5-4-1, 6-4 ATS) at Baltimore (6-4, 7-3 ATS)
The Eagles, desperate for a win to keep pace in the highly competitive NFC East, step out of conference play to take on the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
Philadelphia had to settle for a 13-13 tie against Cincinnati laying 9½ points on the road, failing to cover for the second straight week after a 3-0 SU and ATS surge. QB Donovan McNabb chucked the ball went just 28-for-58 for 339 yards and a TD, and though he also threw three INTs, he rallied the Eagles from a 13-3 third-quarter deficit to force overtime.
Baltimore is coming off last week’s 30-10 loss to the Giants catching seven points in East Rutherford, N.J., which halted a 4-0 SU and ATS streak for the Ravens. However, it continued another streak, as the SU winner is now 19-2 ATS in Baltimore’s last 21 games (9-1 ATS this season). Rookie QB Joe Flacco (20 of 33, 164 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) had a rough outing, with both his picks going to the Giants’ Aaron Ross, who took the second one back 50 yards for a TD.
These teams have been regular adversaries in the preseason, but they’ve met just once this decade in a game that counted, with Philly winning 15-10 in 2004, but Baltimore cashing as a 7½-point road pup.
The Eagles are on several positive ATS runs, including 9-2 on the road, 7-3 after a pointspread setback and 4-0 in roadies versus teams with a winning home record. The Ravens are on ATS surges of 5-1 at home and 8-2 on grass, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-6 in November, 4-12 after a SU loss and 5-12 after an ATS setback.
The over for Philadelphia is on streaks of 20-8-1 against winning teams and 7-3 on the road, and the over for Baltimore is on stretches of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 in November, 13-3-1 on grass and 6-2 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Chicago (5-5, 4-5-1 ATS) at St. Louis (2-8, 3-7 ATS)
Two teams coming off blowout losses square off when the Bears travel to the Edward Jones Dome to meet the Rams.
Chicago was blasted by Green Bay 37-3 as a 3½-point road ‘dog for its second consecutive SU loss and third straight ATS setback. QB Kyle Orton (13 of 26, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was ineffective through the air and lost a fumble for the Bears’ lone turnover, and Chicago got hammered in total yards (427-234) and time of possession (37:28-22:32). The Bears defense gave up 200 rushing yards, including 145 and a TD to Ryan Grant.
St. Louis got ripped at San Francisco 35-16 as a seven-point pup for its fourth consecutive loss and third straight pointspread defeat. The Rams trailed 35-3 at halftime – they’ve been outscored 75-3 in the first half the last two games – forcing Marc Bulger (34 of 53, 295 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) to chuck the ball all day, but St. Louis never threatened despite holding the Niners scoreless in the second half.
The SU winner is 21-2-1 ATS in Chicago’s last 24 games (8-1-1 ATS this year) and 12-1 ATS in St. Louis’ last 13 (9-1 ATS this year).
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes with St. Louis, including a 42-27 road victory two years ago as a six-point chalk.
The Bears are on a 1-4 ATS dive, but they carry positive spread streaks of 8-3 on the road, 8-3 after a SU loss and 7-3 after a non-cover. The Rams have nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-10 overall, 4-13 at home, 2-7 against the NFC and 7-18-1 catching points.
The under for Chicago is on a 6-0 tear on the road, but the over for the Bears is on runs of 26-10-1 against NFC opponents and 13-6 against losing teams, and the over for St. Louis is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 6-1 at home and 7-3 against the NFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO
Minnesota (5-5, 3-7 ATS) at Jacksonville (4-6, 3-7 ATS)
The Vikings, still in the playoff hunt due to the weak state of the NFC North, head to Alltel Stadium for a non-conference contest against the freefalling Jaguars.
Minnesota lost to Tampa Bay 19-13 getting 4½ points on the road for its second straight ATS setback. QB Gus Frerotte (14 of 20, 138 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t do much, RB Adrian Peterson (19 carries, 85 yards) was held under 100 yards, and the Vikings finished with a meager 210 total yards, while giving up 363.
Jacksonville lost to unbeaten Tennessee 24-14 as a one-point home pup, blowing a 14-3 halftime lead in falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. QB David Garrard (13 of 30, 135 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) struggled, and the Jags defense allowed QB Kerry Collins to throw for three second-half TDs and finish with 230 passing yards on just 13 completions.
These two teams have met twice this decade, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS. In 2004, Minnesota earned a 27-16 win as a six-point home favorite.
The Vikings are on ATS dives of 1-4 overall, 0-5 on grass, 1-5 on the road and 4-10-1 against the AFC. The Jaguars aren’t much better, carrying ATS dips of 2-5 overall, 0-5 at home, 1-9 on grass and 4-8 after facing Tennessee, but they are also 10-5 ATS in their last 15 contests against NFC foes.
The over for Minnesota is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 in November and 16-5-2 after an ATS setback, and the over for Jacksonville is on a 14-5-3 overall streak.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Carolina (8-2, 5-3-2 ATS) at Atlanta (6-4 SU and ATS)
The surging Panthers travel to the Georgia Dome for an NFC South showdown with the Falcons.
Carolina won its fourth in a row with last week’s 31-22 win over winless Detroit, failing to cash as an overwhelming 14-point chalk. QB Jake Delhomme (10 of 19, 102 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had his second straight sub-par game, but the Panthers’ running game more than made up for it, as Jonathan Stewart (15 carries, 130 yards, 1 TD) and DeAngelo Williams (14 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs) went off in helping Carolina rack up 264 rushing yards.
Atlanta lost to Denver 24-20 laying 6½ points at home, halting a two-game SU and ATS uptick and a four-game SU and ATS run in the Georgia Dome. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (20 of 33, 250 yards, 0 TDs) had a fair outing, but the Broncos turned his lone INT into a field goal to open the fourth quarter. It was the lone turnover of the game, and the Falcons finished with a seven-minute deficit in time of possession.
The SU winner is 18-1 ATS in Atlanta’s last 19 games (10-0 ATS this season) and 22-3-1 ATS in Carolina’s last 26 outings (7-2-1 ATS this season).
Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four clashes in this rivalry, including a 24-9 victory in September as a seven-point home favorite. The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, but the road team is on a 5-1 pointspread run, as the Falcons are 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 contests in Atlanta.
The Panthers are on a 1-6 ATS slide in November games, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 6-1-1 as a division road ‘dog and 5-0 after a non-cover. The Falcons are on ATS runs of 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 5-1 at home, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-5 inside the division, 2-8-1 in home division games and 2-6 against winning teams.
The under for Carolina is on stretches of 7-2 overall, 7-1 in division play and 10-2 in November, and the under is on a 4-1 run for Atlanta and is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Oakland (2-8, 4-6 ATS) at Denver (6-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Broncos return from a successful two-game road trip when they host the reeling Raiders at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver upset Atlanta 24-20 catching 6½ points on the road, winning and covering for the second straight week, marking the first time since last November that the Broncos cashed in consecutive games. QB Jay Cutler (19 of 27, 216 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and Denver turned a third-quarter INT – the game’s lone turnover – into a key field goal to open the fourth quarter.
Oakland’s rally fell just short at Miami in a 17-15 defeat for its fourth straight loss, but the Raiders covered as a 10-point ‘dog to halt an 0-3 ATS skid. QB JaMarcus Russell (15 of 22, 156 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) didn’t do a lot, but he also kept the Raiders turnover-free. Oakland got a 93-yard punt return to take a 15-14 lead with just under five minutes left, but Miami won it on a Dan Carpenter field goal in the final minute.
Oakland is on a 4-1 ATS run (1-4 SU) in this AFC West rivalry, all as an underdog, though Denver rolled 41-14 as a three-point road chalk in the season opener. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Broncos, despite their recent surge, remain on ATS slides of 9-24-1 overall, 3-14-1 after a SU win, 3-8-1 after a spread-cover, 2-9-1 against losing teams, 3-11-1 in the division and 2-13 as a home chalk The Raiders are hardly better, carrying ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 0-5 as a double-digit pup, 2-8 after a spread-cover and a lengthy 21-45-1 after a SU loss.
The under is on a 5-1 run for Oakland and is on further streaks for Oakland of 8-2-1 in November and 38-14-2 against winning teams, and the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Denver in this rivalry. But the over for Denver is on tears of 21-8-2 overall, 9-1 inside the division, 10-3 against losing teams and 13-4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Washington (6-4, 5-5 ATS) at Seattle (2-8, 4-6 ATS)
The Redskins, needing to bounce back from a two-game SU and ATS hiccup to keep pace in the playoff chase, make the cross-country trek to Qwest Field to take on the struggling Seahawks.
Washington lost to Dallas 14-10 as a one-point home underdog, moving the SU winner to 16-1 ATS in the Redskins’ last 17 games (9-1 ATS this season). QB Jason Campbell (22 of 34, 162 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) led an offense that generated just 228 total yards, while the Cowboys finished with 315.
Seattle fell to Arizona 26-20 getting three points at home in its third straight loss (1-2 ATS). QB Matt Hasselbeck returned from injury but had a rough outing, going 17 of 29 for 170 yards and 1 TD, offset by three INTs. The Seahawks finished with just 196 total yards, while allowing a whopping 458.
These two teams met in the first round of last season’s playoffs, with Seattle rolling to a 35-14 home win laying three points, and the home team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Redskins are on ATS plunges of 1-4 overall, 1-5 in November, 3-11-1 against losing teams and 2-5 after a SU loss, but they are on pointspread runs of 5-1 as a road chalk and 12-5 after playing Dallas. The Seahawks carry positive ATS streaks of 7-2 after a non-cover and 8-3 after a SU loss, but they are on ATS declines of 1-4 at home, 1-4 against winning teams and 3-7 as a non-division home ‘dog.
The under for Washington is on streaks of 5-0-1 overall, 4-1-1 against the NFC and 12-5-1 in November, and the under for Seattle is on runs of 4-1 overall and 4-0 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and UNDER
N.Y. Giants (9-1, 8-2 ATS) at Arizona (7-3, 6-3-1 ATS)
Two of the hotter teams in the NFC get together when the defending Super Bowl champion Giants travel to the Valley of the Sun to face the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
New York ripped Baltimore 30-10 as a seven-point chalk to win and cover for the fifth consecutive week, and the SU winner is on a 20-2 ATS spree in the Giants’ last 22 games (9-1 ATS this season). QB Eli Manning (13 of 23, 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a modest output, but he got great support from a running game that produced 207 yards and a defense that had two INTs, including one returned for a TD. RB Aaron Bradshaw ripped off a 77-yard run for the bulk of his 96 yards on nine carries, and Brandon Jacobs (11 carries, 73 yards) had two first-half TD runs.
Arizona beat Seattle 26-20 giving three points on the road for its third consecutive SU win (2-1 ATS). QB Kurt Warner (32 of 44, 395 yards, 1 TD) had another monster day, and although he threw a pick and lost a fumble, the Cardinals defense picked him up by forcing four turnovers, including three INTs of Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck.
Arizona is on a 3-1 ATS run (2-2 SU) in the last four games among these former NFC East rivals, but in the last meeting, New York rolled to a 42-19 home win giving three points in 2005.
The Giants are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 22-6 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 11-1 against winning teams, 13-2 on the road and 20-7 after a spread-cover. Likewise, the Cardinals are on ATS surges of 5-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 4-1 at home, 5-2 against winning teams and 10-4 hosting a non-division opponent.
In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall and 5-1 in Arizona. However, the over for New York is on streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 6-1-1 after a SU win and 5-1-1 in November, and the over for Arizona is on tears of 23-9 overall, 6-0 at home and 4-0 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Indianapolis (6-4, 4-6 ATS) at San Diego (4-6 SU and ATS)
The Colts pursue their fourth straight victory when they travel to Qualcomm Stadium for a prime-time matchup with the Chargers.
Indianapolis held off Houston 33-27 for its third consecutive SU win, but the Colts failed to cover as a hefty nine-point home chalk. QB Peyton Manning (30 of 46, 320 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and RB Joseph Addai (22 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) also had a solid day. The Colts finished with a whopping 474 yards, while allowing 356, and finished with a 34:15-25:45 time-of-possession edge.
San Diego lost to Pittsburgh by a rather ugly 11-10 score, but the Chargers covered as a 4½-point road pup, snapping a three-game ATS skid when the referees waived off Troy Polamalu’s fumble-return TD for the Steelers on the final play of the game – a ruling the league later admitted was incorrect. QB Philip Rivers (15 of 26, 164 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) had a dismal day, committing the game’s only turnovers, and the Chargers finished with just 218 total yards, while allowing 410.
San Diego has cashed in four straight against Indy, including a 28-24 upset as a heavy 10½-point pup in the divisional playoffs last January for its third consecutive SU win in this AFC rivalry. The underdog is on a 5-0 ATS run in this rivalry, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in that span.
The Colts are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall and 2-5 on the road against teams with a losing home record. The Chargers, despite their 4-6 ATS mark this season, remain on a bevy of pointspread hot streaks, including 13-5-1 overall, 6-1-1 against winning teams, 9-2 at Qualcomm, 9-3 after a spread-cover and 19-7-3 after a SU loss.
The over for Indianapolis is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win and 6-2 against the AFC, and the over for San Diego is on runs of 8-3 after a SU loss and 13-6-1 in November. But the total has stayed low in five of the Chargers’ last six games and is on further runs for the Bolts of 5-0 against AFC foes and 4-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots come into this big AFC East match up after losing to the New York Jets 43-31 in OT while the Dolphins needed a late score to beat the Raiders last week 17-15. Both teams trail the Jets in the AFC East, but the Jets play the undefeated Titans today so first place may be up for grabs. The Patriots really need to win this game, as if they do not they will only be 6-5 and the Dolphins will hold the tiebreaker since the Fish already beat the Pats earlier this season. The Dolphins are led by QB Chad Pennington (2374 yds 8 TD 5 INT) and his main targets are WR's Greg Camarillo (49 rec 538 yds 1 TD) and Ted Ginn Jr. (38 rec 508 yds 1 TD). The Dolphins rushing attack is led by the duo of Ronnie Brown (605 yds 9 TD) and Ricky Williams (437 yds 3 TD). The Patriots are led by QB Matt Cassel (2200 yds 10 TD 7 TD) and his main targets are Randy Moss (46 rec 615 yds 5 TD) and Wes Welker (72 rec 718 yds 1 TD). The Pats rushing attack is led by the Kevin Faulk (319 yds 2 TD).
Staff Pick: The question in this game is, can the Patriots stop the Dolphins and their Wildcat offense? In the first game between these two the Dolphins rank the Wildcat offense 6 times for 3 TD's. Now that the Pats have seen that offense they will not be surprised when the Fish run it. Both teams are pretty even on defense, but the Dolphins are having trouble in pass defense. The Dolphins will have to play better than last week against the Raiders. For the Dolphins to be successful in this game they will have to get Cassel, as if they do not he will pick apart the weak Dolphin secondary with short passes. Kevin Faulk has to pick up some yards for the Pats or the Fish will only concentrate on stopping the pass. In the past few weeks the Pats have opened up their offense, as they are passing down the field more. If Moss has a big game for the Pats the Dolphins will be in trouble. This is a not a must win game, but it is pretty close, especially for the Patriots. Look for the Pats to contain the Wildcat offense and win a close game today in the Sunshine State.
Patriots 24 Dolphins 17
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
In addition to the home side domination we noted earlier, we note that Underdogs in Weeks 10 through 13 that are off a division loss are just 14-41 ATS over the last five seasons. The Browns are 11-1 ATS when coming off a road game. The Texans are 0-5 on the road this season allowing 32 points per game. These are the stats Cleveland fans want to here: no interceptions in 71 pass attempts and 29.5 PPG with Brady Quinn under center.
Play on: Cleveland
Rocketman Sports
Washington @ Seattle
Play: 1* Seattle +3.5
Washington is 3-12 ATS since 1992 as a road favorite of 3 points or less. Washington is 2-10 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record and 1-5 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Seattle is 7-1 ATS last 3 years after 2 or more consecutive losses. Redskins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Redskins are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Redskins are 3-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf. Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Redskins are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Seahawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Seattle today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Matt Fargo
Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Play:Oakland Raiders +9.5
The Raiders have been hit or miss all season with covering and this looks like one of those spots where it will be a hit. It is a revenge spot but I don’t pay much attention to that. More importantly, it is a division game and a big rival on less so while Oakland has hung around the last two weeks, it should be even more ready this week. After getting absolutely dominated against Atlanta three weeks ago, kudos go out to the Raiders for not quitting and playing hard the last two weeks.
Denver has a two-game lead in the AFC West and while this is a division game, it does not see this as a game it needs to go out and dominate. The Broncos are coming off two road wins that were hard fought and were not decided until the final minutes so if anything, this is a letdown game and one that is going to be tough to get up for. Yes it is the Raiders but they are 2-8 and with the Jets on deck, I totally see Denver sitting back and just trying to coast this one out.
The Raiders rushing defense has been a mess all season but it may finally catch a break here. The last five games they have been hit hard against the run but those games were against the Jets, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina and Miami who are ranked 9th, 3rd, 2nd, 6th and 12th respectively in the NFL in rushing offense. Denver is 18th in rushing offense but it is down to fourth string backs and recent acquisitions to carry the ball. Last week against Atlanta, three backs combined for 121 yards against the 22nd ranked defense.
The Oakland offense has been worse than the defense but again, a lot of that comes down to the defenses it has faced. The Raiders have gone against the 14th, 8th, 23rd, 3rd and 15th ranked defense in their last five games. There was no excuse for that game against Atlanta (23rd) but the rest have been solid units to face. Now Oakland goes up against the 29th ranked defense in the NFL as the Broncos have been a sieve all season and even more so at home where it is allowing 404.4 ypg.
The Raiders are 4-6 against the numbers this season which is better than Denver’s 3-6-1 ATS mark. They are coming off a cover in Miami last week and that sets up a solid situation in their favor. Play on road teams that have won fewer than 25 percent of their games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -2.3 ppg. 3* Oakland Raiders
Dave Cokin
Jets @ Titans
Play: Titans -5'
The Jets are playing well, no doubt about it. But they're up against a team playing even better here as the Titans simply refuse to lose. Last Sunday, they were in trouble at Jacksonville and simply came out of halftime and destroyed the Jags. No knock on Favre and the J-E-T-S, but there's no way I'm fading Tennessee at home right now with the number less than a TD. Titans minus the points are the choice.