Tom Stryker
PHILADELPHIA (+) over Baltimore
For Philadelphia (5-4-1) and Baltimore (6-4 ), each game at this stage of the season is critical. Thanks to last week’s 13-13 tie at Cincinnati, the NFL’s first since 2002, this contest means a lot more to the Eagles.
Without question, when priced as a dog or pick, the Green Birds have been one of the most reliable road teams in the league posting a solid 89-58 ATS record. The best of this team trend has taken place when Philly has been matched up against a non-division opponent – now 51-24-2 ATS including a blistering 26-10 ATS if they played a team outside of the NFC East last.
Baltimore enters this non-division home war off a crushing 30-10 loss to the New York Giants last Sunday. The Ravens defensive front seven got steamrolled in that defeat. The G-Men literally ran over the Black Birds gaining 207 yards on the ground.
Even though the Ravens have played good football at home, there’s no way I can open up my wallet for them here. Since the 2007 season, NFC East teams are an incredible 10-4-1 ATS provided they are priced as a dog or pick against a non-division opponent. This division trend is a nearly perfect 9-1 ATS in its last ten with the NFC East team winning seven of those games straight up on the field.
Offensively, the Eagles are ranked sixth in the NFL in points scored (26.4) and fourth in passing (268.5 ypg). It won’t be easy matched up against a Ravens defense that got embarrassed last weekend. But, the Green Birds have the stop unit to compliment their offense (allow an avg of 19.3 points and 292.7 ypg) and they’re a little bit better than Baltimore right now. Take Philadelphia!
Brian Hansen
St. Bonaventure at Rutgers
Prediction: Rutgers
Rutgers last season seemed to be two different teams. On the one hand, there were the freshmen, the guys who Fred Hill recruited. On the other were the veterans, some of them talented. Those two units didn't meld often enough in 2007-08 for the Scarlet Knights to make much progress in the standings; look for them to lay a beating on St. Bonaventure today! In fact, over the last 3 seasons St. Bonaventure is a horrible 1-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more; expect this strong trend to continue tonight! Play on RUTGERS!
MTi Sports
Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
The Seventysixers are 0-7 ATS (-9.4 ppg) after a win at home in which Andre Iguodala was not the Seventysixers' high scorer and the Warriors are 9-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) after a loss in which Stephen Jackson played more than 45 minutes. With Philadelphia 0-11-1 ATS (-9.4 ppg) as a favorite off a win of four points or fewer in which they held a double digit lead and Golden St 6-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) off a loss in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters, we?ll grab the points.
Tom Freese
Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Denver is 11-4 ATS off a double digit loss and they are 13-6 ATS at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 8-2 ATS their last 10 meetings with the Bulls. Chicago is 7-19 ATS off a straight up win and they are 4-10 ATS off an ATS win. The Bulls are 5-11 ATS vs. winning teams and they are 4-11 after scoring 100 or more points. PLAY ON DENVER -
Charlie Scott
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: New England Patriots
You have to go back to the year 2006 for the last time the Patriots lost back to back games S/U. Look for the Pats to rebound off their Thursday night overtime loss to the Jets with a win down in Miami today. The Pats and Belichick will take advantage of the extra days rest and time to prepare. This play is all about Belichick off a loss with revenge. I'm confident Belichick will come up with schemes to confuse and beat the Dolphins. He has had a great deal of success beating Dolphin QB Pennington when he was a Jet and it will continue today. For trend players Miami's last 4 games have gone Under, while the Pats have gone Under 4 out of their last 5. PLAY ON PATRIOTS !
Tony Mathews
Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Selection: Denver Broncos -10
Last Sunday the Bronco’s proved their underestimated defense to be a solid one, playing strong throughout the entire game to come out with a victory over the Atlanta Falcons; an excellent team that has a very intimidating offensive unit. This week Denver will face a much easier opponent in The Raiders which has no offensive stability to speak of and is all around not a quality team. Oakland comes into this game 2-8 and hasn’t scored an offensive TD in 3 games. The last touchdown occurred on October 26th with JaMarcus Russell’s touchdown pass to Justin Griffith against Baltimore during the 3rd quarter. Last Sunday against the Dolphins was the first and only time that the Raiders made it to the end zone since that Baltimore matchup; WR Johnnie Lee Higgins scored with a 93 yard punt return. The Raiders got ahead briefly, 15-14, with the 4th quarter touchdown, but a subsequent Miami drive made the winning field goal where the Raiders lost 17-15. That defeat was Oakland’s 4th straight loss with their last victory in week 7 with an overtime win against the Jets. Oakland has failed to score a 1st quarter TD on the road since week 4 of the 2007 season, and has scored just one 1st quarter TD so far this year. The 2007 touchdown was scored by Daunte Culpepper who rushed for the TD against Miami. Culpepper is now with Detroit. As we head into week 12, the Raiders are ranked worst in the NFL in scoring offense with 12.8 ppg, in passing offense with 136.9 ypg, in completion percentage at 49.6%, in TDs with only 10, in rushing TDs with only 3, in passing TDs with 6 as well as a 3rd down percentage of 22.1%.
In contrast, Denver has an aggressive power attack which is one of the most potent in the NFL. But last week’s 24-20 win against Atlanta was due to the Bronco defense. In that game, 3 Atlanta RBs managed only 96 yards combined on 30 carries, or 3.2 yards per attempt. This was the result of the Broncos provisional line backing unit which was made up of rookie Spencer Larson, Wesley Woodyard and Jamie Winborn; there were many big tackles and consistent guarding which made the game for Denver. The Broncos couldn’t get a sack against the pass and falcon WR Roddy White went more than 100 yards. They did however keep QB Matt Ryan from throwing a touchdown strike and in the 2nd half, got a huge interception from CB Dre’ Bly. The Bronco’s allowed 20 points which was their fewest surrendered since week 5 when they beat the Buccaneers 16-13. That, along with a victory against San Diego, put Denver up two places in the AFC West against the 2nd place 4-6 Chargers.
The last time these two teams faced off was way back in week 1. Since then Denver has had several changes in staff. However, what has remained consistent is that the Broncos are basically a pass first team. Jay Cutler goes into this game with an excellent passer rating of 90.7. He has 2832 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Last week against the Falcons, Cutler was proficient completing 19 of 27 passes for 216 yards with a TD and no turnovers. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal are virtually unstoppable with 63 receptions and 4 touchdowns, and 56 receptions and 4 touchdowns respectively. In their first meeting this season, Marshall was suspended, but Royal gained 146 yards against Oakland. We haven’t seen much from TE Tony Scheffler recently because of lingering and limiting injuries, and he didn’t catch anything last week against Atlanta. His presence in this game is questionable because of a groin injury but he will probably be cleared. Denver’s running game, however makeshift it may be, worked well for them last week. Rookie Peyton Hillis, converted fullback, was responsible for 2 of the Broncos three touchdowns while rushing for 44 yards on 10 carries. P.J. Pope, who was promoted from the practice squad, had 4 carries for 35 yards. Tatum Bell whose NFL career seemed to be over after some issues, came back to Denver just days earlier and went on to carry 7 times for 34 yards. Cutler has been sacked only 7 times the entire season, so its apparent that the offensive line is doing a pretty good job in protection.
Expect Denver to take the Raiders far more seriously than Miami did last week. The challenge, or lack thereof of as the case may be, that Oakland offers isn’t significant when it comes to Denver. Shanahan and the rest of the team always put up something extra for the Raiders as they take great strides in humiliating Al Davis as we saw the last time they met. Just like the season’s first matchup, the Broncos will dominate the Raiders on both sides of the ball, leaving the field with a huge victory.
Take Denver Broncos -10!
Jeff Benton
For Sunday in the NFL, we’ll back the Falcons as an ever-so-slight home chalk against Carolina.
This line perplexes me – even though the Falcons are coming off their first home loss to the Broncos, even though they got crushed in their first meeting with Carolina, and even though the Panthers have a two-game lead over Atlanta in the division.
For one thing, the Panthers have been incredibly unimpressive in their current four-game winning streak, particularly in the last three weeks. First, they needed two turnovers to rally for a 27-23 home win over Arizona, then went to Oakland and struggled to beat the pathetic Raiders 17-6 (a week after Atlanta went to Oakland and pummeled the Raiders 24-0). Finally, against the winless Lions a week ago, Carolina spotted Detroit a 10-0 lead and led by just two points (24-22 after a failed Lions two-point conversion) with six minutes to play before scoring a late garbage TD for a misleading 31-22 win.
Sure, QB Jake Delhomme had his best game of the season in a 24-9 win over Atlanta back in Week 4, but this is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league. And what Delhomme has done lately is pass for a grand total of 172 yards with 2 TDs and four INTs the last two weeks – again, facing the Lions and Raiders!
Atlanta, meanwhile, had the ball with a chance to win last week’s game against the Broncos, and had Matt Ryan pulled it off, the Falcons would be 5-0 SU and ATS at home and be laying well over a field goal today. So that means we’re getting some good line value here. Also, it’s interesting to note than in the rugged NFC South this year, the home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in divisional games, with five of those being double-digit blowouts. All Atlanta has to do is win today and we get the cash, and my money’s on the birds to do just that as the Panthers (3-7-2 ATS last 12 years in Atlanta) are as weak an 8-2 team as I’ve seen in years.
5♦ ATLANTA FALCONS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Jets in Nashville.
Tennessee may win this game and continue the amazing undefeated run but this number is too much and certainly a must play.
In case nobody realized this Jets team is pretty darn good. Sure they layed an egg in that loss a month ago in Oakland but New York is rapidly becoming one of the top teams in the entire NFL and certainly should be in this thing throughout.
Brett Favre has not been MVP great but the future Hall of Famer has been very good leading the way and guys like Kris Jenkins, Jerricho Cotchery, Lavernaues Coles and Dustin Keller are no joke. Eric Mangini's squad is as confident as can be after that last win in New England and right now are also extremely rested after having an extra few days off since that last game was on Thursday. The Jetties have scored the second most points in the league and will put a few on the board here.
Sure the Titans will run the ball with LenDale White and Chris Johnson and have a Quarterback in Kerry Collins who has been very good through the air of late. Tennessee even burned me horribly in that comeback win in Jacksonville as I loved the Jags but even with that comeback the 10-0 Titans are not an offensive machine that can just pile points on the board and that will keep this thing close and the visitors in the game for the duration.
The road is never easy and it will be ultra difficult for the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets to win this game outright as Albert Haynesworth and the Titans are a physical physical group but to get more than a field goal is too much to pass up, period.
Jake Timlin
Your Sunday selection is the Washington Redskins.
In years past the Redskins making a cross country trip to Seattle meant a certain loss, but given how back the Seahawks are this season that is just not the case anymore. Not when Seattle has been awful at home this year dropping 4 of their 5 games as those four defeats match the total number of loses over the previous three years. Even tougher for the Seahawks will be the fact they are playing a Washington team looking for revenge after losing to Seattle in the playoffs last season. Well due to the Seahawks having a low scoring offense mixed in with Coach Zorn making his home coming to his former team I look for the Redskins to steal on one on the road as Seattle continues to struggle in Holmgren’s last season. Take the Redskins minus the points!
Tony Weston
We came through last night with Hawaii as the Rainbow Warriors were an easy winner and we’re coming through again as we’re taking the Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers.
While Carolina may be 8-2 SU this year, they have been erratic on the money-making end. The Panthers are only 5-4-1 ATS this season and are only 2-3 ATS their last five games. On the road this year Carolina is 2-2 SU and ATS and was inches from failing to cover at Oakland tow weeks ago when Raiders kick Sebastian Janikowski missed a field goal by less than a foot with less than 2 minutes to play. The Panthers survived and won 17-6 as a 10-point favorite.
On the flip side, the Falcons have been solid under rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons are 6-4 SU and ATS this season and still in the hunt for the division title. Over their last six games the Falcons are 4-2 SU and ATS and are 4-1 ATS at home this season.
Atlanta will continue its strong home streak and play Carolina close enough to cover. Take the Falcons at home today.
3♦ FALCONS
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at DETROIT -10'
Free play here for you on the NBA hardwood as we love the Pistons tonight to blow out the Timberwolves in Detroit.
The Pistons have been a mysterious squad this season. Making the blockbuster trade to get Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups, beating the undefeated Lakers in Los Angeles but getting blown out by 18 points the last two times they've lost.
Today, we'll see the Detroit team that can lock down on defense and control the opposition for an easy victory. The Pistons have played eight of their last 10 on the road with the newest acquisition, with six of those 10 coming against playoff teams. They lost to Boston Thursday 98-80 and never looked like they got in that game.
But then you see this team put an end to the Cavaliers' and Lakers' seven-game winning streaks with near-perfect performances and you think they might be the best team in the NBA. The Pistons are starting a four-game homestand with all of them coming against non-playoff teams.
The T'Wolves had lost eight straight games before beating the Sixers on Wednesday, 102-96. They have lost five straight on the road and they too lost to Boston this week , falling 95-78 at home on Friday.
Minnesota hasn't won a road game this season and don't expect this one to even be close. Play Detroit!
4♦ DETROIT
N.Y. Jets at TENNESSEE -5'
We've got your FREE winner on the NFL gridiron today as we are all over the unbeaten Titans hosting the Jets in Tennessee.
I wasn't a believer in this Titans' for most of the season because I just couldn't imagine Kerry Collins being the QB of an undefeated team. But the last two weeks he's shown the world he can still lead a team with his arm as they've had to get it done through the air to pull out wins.
Two weeks ago they pulled out a 21-14 win in Chicago led by almost 300 yards passing from Collins, and then last week they rallied from a 14-3 deficit to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville, 24-14 as a three-point road chalk. Collins completed just 13 passes but they totaled 230 yards and three TDs.
Of course the defense for Tennessee has been as solid as ever and gave up 257 total yards to the Jags. Today you can count on them putting all kinds of pressure on Jets' QB Brett Favre and we all know what happens when Favre starts moving around - flinging the ball around for some INTs.
There's no way the Jets will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Titans' defense, forcing them to rely on the arm of Favre. But expect to see one of his classic three INT games today.
Tennessee is on ATS streaks of 11-2 overall, 7-0 against the AFC, 9-1 on grass, 9-1 after a straight-up win, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in front of the home fans. Watch today as this team completely controls the Jets. Play the Titans.
3♦ TENNESSEE
Karl Garrett
NY Jets at TENNESSEE -5'
G-Man gave you an easy winner on Saturday as NC State destroyed UNC. Now 13-6 the last 19 free plays.
The linesmakers keep undervaluing the undefeated Titans, so the G-Man will once again take advantage of a steal of a line.
Yes, the Jets come into this one with a 4 game winning streak on their side, and they have in 3 straight, but those streaks get halted today at LP Field.
Tennessee as you are all aware is rolling a perfect 10-0 this season, and they have also covered in thier last pair, and 9 of 10 games this season!
The Titans defense is allowing just 13 points per game this season, and as hot as the Jets have been, I don't see New York getting too much more than that this afternoon. I also feel this is the game Brett Favre coughs up a pick or two to swing the balance of this game to Tennesee.
This is the third straight season these teams are playing in Nashville, and the Jets have covered the previous pair. That won't be the case today.
Take the Titans minus the number, as Tennessee moves to 11-0 straight up, and 10-1 against the math.
4♦ TENNESSEE
Drew Gordon
NY Jets at TENNESSEE -5'
Here we go again, another Sunday where a team tries to tarnish the Titans undefeated record, and another Sunday where that team (the Jets) will fail and here's why:
Before you even consider backing the Jets in this contest, ask yourself one question: Have you seen them play on the road this season? Sure, they did well at struggling Buffalo and in a HUGE rivalry game at the Patriots last week, but those were divisional games against familiar foes with plenty of motivation to go around. Better example might be when the Jets travelled to San Diego (or Oakland for that matter) and looked like total garbage, losing both of those games in ugly efforts. And this is the team that's going to beat Tennessee at home?!
Second, don't be fooled by the Jets 4-game win streak, as I mentioned above, they beat a sputtering Bills team, got even with the Pats, and in between those games beat the sorry-ass Chiefs and Rams... Forgive me If I'm not impressed! Titans meanwhile, continue to mow down team after team, as analysts and 'Capper all around the world proclaim: THIS is the game where they falter! Yeah right!
Finally, and probably the biggest disparity, is the two defenses. Jets are solid against the run, but overall, their defense is middle-of-the-road. With Kerry Colllins drinking from the fountain of youth in recent weeks, its hard to believe the Jets won't be extremely vulnerable against the play action, especially since you know Mangini is going to pack the box with 8 or 9 defenders. This is the exact same strategy the Jaguars used last week, and after the Titans adjusted at the Half, the dominated with Collings to Gage (147 receiving yards 2 TDs).
Bottom line, say what you will about the Jets 4-game win streak, but there's only one contender on this field today, and that's the Titans, plain and simple. Sure, the Jets looked good over the last couple weeks, but the Titans have looked good all season, and have only continued to improve as coach Fisher has opened up the playbook for Collins. Make no mistake, Titans protec their house Sunday.
Take Tennessee over the NY Jets in this NFL match up.
2♦ TENNESSEE
Sports Gambling Hotline
New England +1' at MIAMI
Revenge time for the Patriots who were humiliated by Miami's "Wildcat" formation in the earlier meeting this season, 38-14 as the double-digit favorite in Foxborough.
New England has had a few extra days of prep time, as they last played in that home Thursday night loss to the Jets. This is a "must win" for the Pats, as a Miami season sweep would hurt New England's chances at copping the AFC East title come the end of the season.
Miami has failed to cover in ALL 3 of their tries as the favorite this year, while New England sports a 9-3-1 spread mark as a road dog their last 13, and they are also 13-1 against the spread their last 14 after a straight up loss.
Matt Cassel was making just his second start of his career when Miami romped New England on Week Three of the season, but now Cassel is clearly more comfortable under center, and the time is right for the Patriots to come up with a road win.
Play on New England as the slight road dog.
2♦ NEW ENGLAND
Chris Jordan
N.Y. Giants -3 at ARIZONA
I won’t get long-winded with this game, as it is cut and dry.
I know I will sound terrible in going against my pre-season surprise NFC team Arizona, but I don’t see it happening Sunday against the defending champions.
Not when the Cardinals are coming off games against lowly St. Louis, San Francisco and Seattle – the NFC West brethren. Sorry, even though the Cardinals showed their dominance in the division, gearing up for the best team in the NFC – arguably in the league – against three of the worst teams in football, well, this will be an eye-opener.
And that’s okay, because the Cardinals will put up a good fight. They’ll just got caught late, and Kurt Warner will end up throwing a costly pick late in the game that will result in our point-spread cover.
I know the Redbirds have a stifling defense as well, especially at home but just look at what the Giants have done against four straight formidable defensive units: at Pittsburgh, 282 yards and a 21-14 win. Versus the Cowboys, 319 yards and a 35-14 win. At Philly, 401 yards worth of offense and a 36-31 win. And last week versus Baltimore, 353 yards and a 30-10 victory.
Let me do the math for you: that’s an average of 338.7 yards per game, and an average final of 30.5-17.2.
Again, I still believe in my Cardinals. But this is a much bigger animal than the NFC Worst, I mean West. These are the defending champs, and let’s no forget they control things by leading the NFL in rushing yards per game with 172.7. They happened to slip ahead of the Cardinals as the league's highest-scoring team with 192 points after rushing for 207 yards Sunday’s win over the Ravens.
Take the road team here, as the Giants win and cover.
3♦ GIANTS
Indianapolis +2' at SAN DIEGO
I personally attended this same game last year, and for those who don’t remember what took place on Nov. 11, allow me to give you the highlights, and lowlights …
Return specialist Darren Sproles personally hoisted the Chargers on his back after electrifying the crowd by returning the opening kickoff and a punt for his first two NFL touchdowns. That’s the highlight.
The lowlight was from Peyton Manning, who threw a record six interceptions in the game. That’s no typo, as the then-reigning Super Bowl MVP suffered through a nightmarish evening under rainy Southern California skies.
Finally, another lowlight, normally sure-shot Adam Vinateri pushed a 29-yard attempt wide right of the goal post I was sitting behind, as the Colts blew the near-comeback and lost 23-21.
Now, the point of bringing this up, it’s simple, Indianapolis played arguably its worst game of the season and still almost won on national television. San Diego blew a 23-point lead – a 23-7 edge in the fourth quarter – and if you don’t believe Manning has reminded everyone of that embarrassing performance, you better think twice.
There’s no doubt the Colts will be fired up and have had this game circled since it was scheduled. And that includes Manning, likely no one more than him.
The future Hall of Famer has had 61 games with quarterback ratings of 100 or better, but none of them have come against the Chargers. He rolls into this one off his best game of the 2008 campaign, as he followed up Indy's comeback defeat of the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a 30-for-46 performance for 320 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans.
He’s doesn’t look like a quarterback hauling around a passer rating of 86.6, as he’s completed 72-of-115 passes (62.6 percent), with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions since the start of November.
And there couldn’t be a better time for than the present for the Colts to shock the Bolts. Indy has seemingly emerged from their early-season doldrums, having won three straight games – the first two coming against playoff contenders New England and Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Chargers have lost three of their last four and four of their last six. And though all four setbacks were on the road, I don’t like what I’ve seen from what is supposed to be an explosive offense, as they’ve averaged 16.5 in those losses.
I’d normally rate this one high, given the National TV status and label it my Revenge Game of the Year; instead, it’s yours absolutely free – the Colts plus the points in San Diego on NBC.
5♦ COLTS