GINA
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
The New York Jets are playing sound and Brett Favre has improved. They have won three of the last four meetings against Tennessee and go for their fifth straight win overall. All the same, just can’t go against the surprising Titans. Tennessee is 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 against the spread. Why? How I see it, they are just a mediocre team. But they are beating all their opponents and covering the spread. The team is disciplined with a strong team spirit. It’s working. Take the Titans at home playing old school style football to somehow stay undefeated.
Tennessee Titans -5½
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have won 18 of their past 20 games at home and the last three meetings versus Indianapolis, but San Diego has struggle, playing below par this year. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning and crew have won three straight games, playing great again. I expect to see a close high scoring battle at Qualcomm Stadium, but don’t believe the Charges will take a fourth straight victory against the improve Colts. Manning has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three games and should have a big game against the worse pass defense in the league.
Indianapolis Colts +3
Johnny Guild
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants takes a trip to Phoenix Stadium to face the Arizona Cardinals. Both teams have played outstanding, two top scoring teams in the NFL, the Giants averaging 29.2 points per game and Cardinals 28.9. Expect to see a good fight in Phoenix between the Cardinals second-ranked offense going up against the Giants’ second-ranked defense.
This is how I see it. Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner will score against the Giants vulnerable secondary and so will Eli Manning against the Cardinals banged-up secondary, but Arizona will have difficulties on the ground. Take the Giants to seize their sixth straight victory in a tough clash. New York’s forceful defensive line will batter the Cardinals and torment Warner. The Giants have been profitable. New York has covered the spread in their last five games, 8-2 ATS this season and is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 on the road.
New York Giants -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5
San Francisco/Dallas Over 46
Indianapolis Colts +3
John Fina
Selection: Detroit Lions +8
Reason: Put us down on the Detroit Lions +8 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. Today the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on the road as they take on the Detroit Lions. We will side with the Detroit Lions plus the points! Tampa Bay is an overrated team that got lucky last week and won vs. Minnesota due to a botched kickoff in the last few minutes of the game. The Buccaneers are not as good as they are given credit for, (which was apparent if you saw last week’s game) because they are incapable of making it to the end zone. Like clockwork, Tampa Bay has to kick a field goal every time down the field. While one can legitimately say that the Vikings have an excellent defense, this was not an isolated incident for the Bucs. While they’ve come dangerously close to victory, Detroit has not won a single game yet this season and this year they are the only team in the NFL that carries that burden. It hasn’t broken their spirit however, because the Lions have remained competitive throughout once they got through a brutal start. Their losses have been very close in five of their last six games in which their opponents managed victories in only single digits. The Lions covered the spread in four out of those five games after starting 0-4 against the spread. Detroit’s first win is statistically imminent, but that’s not the only reason to play the Lions. Detroit has even more significant edges, one of which being the coaching. While coach Rod Marinelli is about to be a thing of the past, he is not a quitter and has fought hard to bring Detroit up. The edge that Marinelli brings to this game is the fact that he was a former coach to the Buccaneers. Therefore he has an insiders knowledge about the team, the coaches as well as the system. This edge worked well last season when the Lions pulled off a victory against the Buccaneers at home. When it comes to field goals inside the red zone, Tampa Bay leads the NFL with 21. They are 33.3% in touchdowns in the red zone, making it to the end zone just 14 times in their attempts at the red zone. The Bucs, along with the Rams, are tied for the worst percentage in the league. While Detroit’s percentage is better than that, they are ranked in front of New England as well as Arizona who have most likely secured positions in the playoffs. Regardless, Tampa Bay is virtually helpless at this point, so not even a terrible defense is going to do them any favors. The expectations from the public, as well as the lines makers, see the Lions losing their 11th consecutive game, and that is why this line becomes valuable. It’s true that the Buccaneers have been really good this season, while the Lions have been pretty horrible, but in the last 6 meetings the Bucs are 0-6 against the spread when playing the Lions. Take the Detroit Lions +8!
Team Who2beton
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off of a disheartening loss to the Tennessee Titans that effectively slashed their playoff hopes, and we do nit feel they will have much left this week vs. the Minnesota Vikings.
Pick by some so-called experts to reach the Super Bowl before this season, the Jaguars have been one of the biggest busts in the NFL. The problem has been a stagnant offense, as David Garrard has been unable to recapture the magic of last year and the running game has surprisingly struggled after being one of the best in the league last season. Jacksonville has also been terrible here at home, going 0-5 against the spread and just 1-4 straight up.
The Vikings are still in the playoff hunt at 5-5, and they played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tough on the road last week before ultimately succumbing 19-13. We feel that they will enjoy this second straight Florida trip a bit better, as Adrian Peterson is capable of having a huge game vs. a Jacksonville run defense that is allowing 113.2 rushing yards per game on an unacceptable 4.3 yards per carry.
So in a nutshell, the Vikings are probably the better team right now and the Jags are in a letdown spot after losing their Super Bowl last week. That sounds like a perfect recipe for a mild upset.
Pick: Vikings +2.5
Black Widow Sports
1* on Denver Broncos -9
Lay the points here with comfort in knowing the Broncos already beat the Raiders by a final of 41-14 in their opening game of the season. There’s no reason the Broncos shouldn’t be able to put a similar beat down on the Raiders at home Sunday. Denver is fighting to win the AFC West, and they are in good position to do so as long as they take care of business at home Sunday. The Raiders have lost 4 straight, losing by 11 or more points in 3 of the 4. Oakland is scoring a mere 14.8 points per game on the road, while Denver puts up 24.6 per game at home. Oakland does not fare well against teams that score a lot of points and put the ball in the air often. The Raiders’ two worst losses have come to the Broncos and the Saints, two teams that throw the ball a ton. This Oakland secondary is terrible, and the Raiders don’t have the kind of offense that can compete in a shootout. Oakland is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Oakland is 10-30 ATS (-23.0 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. The Broncos simply have too much offense for Oakland to hang close. Take Denver and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Minnesota Vikings +2.5
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS at home this season as it has not looked anything like the team we saw a year ago. The Jags' offense has really struggled at home, averaging only 19.6 ppg. While Minnesota's defensive numbers don't look very good, this is a better defensive team than shows on paper, and it is starting to get things figured out as evidenced last week against Tampa Bay. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Jacksonville's pass defense has been making opposing QB's look good all season. With as much as the Jags will have to respect Adrian Peterson and the run, I like the Vikes to be able to take advantage of the passing game to come up with a much-needed win. We'll take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Dallas Cowboys -10
With Romo back under center, we are going to start seeing the Boys lighting up the scoreboard again and it starts this week with a visit from lowly San Francisco. Romo will look even more comfortable this week after getting a full game under his belt, against a much better Washington defense, and after getting another full week of practice. This line is undeniable proof that odds makers aren't reading anything into the 49ers win over a decimated Rams team last week. San Fran's defense is allowing 29.7 ppg on the road this season and you are going to see it get lit up as the Cowboys have their best offensive game in more than a month. The 49ers are just 1-8 ATS in their L9 games vs. teams scoring 24 or more ppg, losing by an average margin of 17.8 in these spots. Also, one cannot deny the letdown system that is in place for the Niners as plays against any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the wood!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Carolina Panthers +1
Atlanta endured its first home loss of the season last week to the Broncos and that kills the momentum that this team had going on its home turf. The Panthers crushed Atlanta 24-9 in the first meeting this season and this game the more veteran squad will show the young Falcons that they aren't ready to compete for a division crown. Under coach Fox, the Panthers are 14-5 ATS on the road in division play. Atlanta is a lowly 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons and 11-27 ATS in home games after playing a game at home since 1992. Take the Panthers.
Jack Jones
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Play New England Patriots
Everybody and their brother is on New England on Sunday and that is one of the reasons why I'm only going to play this one small. The Dolphins have won four straight games but their last two were pretty close against Seattle and Oakland. There is no doubt that the Patriots are a big step up in talent level over those two teams, and with the extra days to prepare (they played on Thursday last week) I think they will roll on Sunday.
Gil Brandy upset speciaks this week. He is about 8-8 ytd but over 65% ATS on these plays.
Arizona, Carolina, and Minnesota.
Erik Scheponik
Minnesota at Jacksonville
Play Minnesota +3 (-125)
Simply going to back the better team here in an underdog role in a game that they must have to stay in the playoff race. Jacksonville, for all intensive purposes, just lost their Super Bowl this past weekend. They had a chance to redeem themselves for a bad first half of the season and start a second half run. They were on their strong home field playing with revenge against the NFL’s best team (for my money it’s the Giants, but we are talking record-wise here). They had the Titans on the ropes, leading by 11 at the half, but were unable to put their division rival away. I expect a bit of a letdown here, as this team who’s been to the postseason 2 out of the past 3 seasons, is all bit eliminated this year.
The Jags simply aren’t the same team this season, and much of their fall can be attributed to an offensive line that has been without 3 starters and as many as 5 of the top 8 due to injury. This has led to a 35 yards per game decrease on offense, while their defense surprisingly ranks 25th in the league at 5.9 yards per play, which continues a downward trend which started last season. They simply are a middle-of-the-pack team right now. The schedule has been tough overall, but remember in the 3 games preceding the Tennessee showdown, the Jaguars lost to Cleveland and Cincinnati before blowing out the hapless Lions.
Minnesota is off of a 19-13 loss this past week to Tampa in a game where the well-rested Buccaneers simply took over in the second half. They have played a rugged schedule, and this is a make-or-break game for them to stay in playoff contention. They are as strong as any team in the league in the trenches, as indicated by their +1.4 net rushing average. They should dominate the Jags on both lines (John Henderson out for Jacksonville), and that alone merits a look when taking points. They will put the onus David Garrard and the Jaguars inconsistent wide receivers. The only area of concern here is their poor coverage units against the Jaguars’ return game led by Maurice Jones-Drew. If they can shore up that weakness here, they are the better team on both sides of the ball, and are catching Jacksonville at the right time. Minnesota by 4