Ben Burns
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
PICK: Under 43.5
Both the 49ers and the Bills were among the many teams which saw their Week 12 games finish well above the total. San Francisco combined with Dallas for 57 points. Meanwhile, Buffalo racked up a whopping 54 points, en route to a 54-31 rout of the Chiefs.
While last week's results have helped to keep this week's afternoon's over/under number generously high, I feel that its important not to over-react to one game. Let's remember that prior to last week's explosion, the Bills had scored 27 points or less in six straight games. They averaged just 18.33 points during that stretch.
While the 49ers defense has admittedly been pretty soft of late, it's worth noting that they've had to play both Arizona and Dallas in recent weeks, two of the league's most explosive offenses. Prior to that, four of their five games had come against the Eagles, Giants, Saints and Patriots - all teams also capable of putting up really big numbers. Last week's game notwithstanding, the Bills arguably aren't as explosive as those teams. New coach Mike Singletary surely isn't happy with the performance of his defense. After last week, I expect him to put a real emphasis on improving the 49ers play on that side of the ball this week.
The 49ers come in averaging 22.9 points per game (22.6 on the road) but I don't expect them to get that many on a cold afternoon on the East coast. The Bills defense has been solid, particularly at home. In five games here, they're allowing 20.2 points per game. That number could easily be even lower too, as they're only permitting an average of just 279.2 total yards in those games. The Bills have hosted some fairly high-powered offensive teams too, including the Jets and Chargers.
Despite a couple of high-scoring games lately, the 49ers have still seen the 'under' go 12-6-1 the last 19 times that they played a game which had an over/under number in the 42.5 to 49 range. With a heavy dose of the run from both teams helping to keep the clock moving, I look for the final score to prove lower than most are expecting once again. Consider the Under
Alex Smart
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs
The Oakland Raiders are favored at home here today against the Kansas City Chiefs. I know the Raiders pulled off a upset win last time out against an inconsistent Denver team, but that was an underdog, against a team that this franchise has always been primed to play against. Now they are suddenly being looked upon as a superior side. Well no matter what the public perceptions are, the Raiders are still a very inconsistent team, that has failed to cover their L/8 as favorites. The Raiders also have a ugly five-game home losing streak against the Chiefs and will once again find the sledding tough against a revenge minded side, that got pounded 23-8 by Oakland earlier this season as home favorites at Arrowhead. I know the Chiefs have lost 19 of their last 20 SU, but believe it or not they have really been playing a lot better, as was evident during a 4 game span previous to last weeks setback against Buffalo. The Chiefs are not bad as some of the public pundits think, and a slight shocker could easily be on todays agenda.
Final notes & Key Trends: The Raiders are 0-8 ATS L/8 as favorites. The visitor is 10-0 ATS L/10 in this series.
Projected score: Kansas City 24 Oakland 21
LT Profits
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Under 41.5
The Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings played to one of the most improbable results of the season earlier this year, a wild 48-41 Bears victory, but look for a return to normalcy here.
What made that result so unbelievable is the fact that these are actually two of the better defenses in the NFC, and the fact that the first meeting had a posted total of 38 gives you an idea of what most people expected.
Even with that defensive debacle on the record of each team, the Bears are still allowing only 21.3 points per game while the Vikings are allowing 22.4. Those numbers improve even more if we look at the home-away splits here, as Chicago is allowing just 17.0 points per game on the road while Minnesota has been just as stingy at home, allowing 17.2 points per contest.
The Bears have been very strong against the run, allowing 85.0 rushing yards per game on only 3,3 yards per rush. Yes, Adrian Peterson did rush for 121 yards in that first meeting, but that whole game seems like a total aberration, and we look for the normally stingy Chicago run defense to contain him better this time around, basically daring the immobile and turn-over prone Gus Frerotte to try and beat them with his arm.
As for when the Bears have the ball, they are most successful when Matt Forte runs successfully. Well, the Minnesota defense is also staunch against the run, especially here at home where the Vikes are allowing a miniscule 61.6 rushing yards per contest. Like Frerotte, we do not trust Kyle Orton either if he is called upon to carry an offense.
Add this all up and we expect this contest to play out to a much more realistic level than the wacky first meeting did, meaning that these clubs should be hard-pressed to get out of the upper 30s.
Pick: Bears, Vikings Under 41.5
WUNDERDOG
Atlanta at San Diego
Pick: UNDER 49
The Chargers are still thought of and hearalded as a great offensive team. Their is a solid QB, big name running back and tight end, and a cast of recievers that rank right up their as one of the NFL's best. It just isn't translating on the field. The Chargers have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games, averaging just 19.4 ppg in the most recent seven. Suddenly, this team has become defensive. They have held five of the last eight opponents to under 20 points a game. Atlanta has had a lot of success pounding the ball this season. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,000 yards already and he is complimented by Jarius Norwood who has contributed almost 400 more. While the Falcons have been highly explosive at home where they have averaged 32.2 ppg, their offense on the road has been more like a cap gun, averaging just 16.6 ppg. On the surface, this game looks like one that could light up the scoreboard. But the statistical reality is, those are false signs and this number is attractively inflated.
Alex Grosse
Miami Dolphins vs. St Louis Rams
Play Miami Dolphins -8
At this point, I’d be willing to be on just about any team in the NFL to cover 8 points against St. Louis. Whether Steven Jackson plays or not, this team is terrible on both sides of the football. St. Louis is ranked 28th offensively and 30th defensively. On average, St. Louis has been outscored by a margin of 18 points per game by the opposition. Lately, it has been really ugly for the Rams as they have been outscored by an average margin of 27 points in their last 4 contests. They are facing the 6-5 Miami Dolphins who are in the midst of a playoff race. Chad Pennington is coming off a very impressive performance against New England where he threw for 3 touchdowns and 348 yards. Marc Bulger, on the other hand is recovering from a concussion he suffered last week against Chicago. The trends also favor Miami. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, meanwhile the Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. I don’t like laying big points with Miami but I just can’t see St. Louis covering. Take the Dolphins with the points.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Oakland Raiders -3
We will take the Oakland Raiders to build off of their most impressive win of the season last week. Oakland throttled Denver 31-10 on the road, and this is a team that has not given up on their season. The same cannot be said for Kansas City, who have lost 10 games on the season now after allowing 54 points to the Bills last week in a 54-31 setback. Oakland already beat K.C. 23-8 earlier this season at Arrowhead Stadium, and at home the second time around they should have no problem taking care of business again behind a solid running game. Oakland rushed for 300 yards on 47 carries last game vs. the Chiefs! The Raiders will beat the Chiefs up front all game long, as Kansas City is far too young and far too soft to step up to the plate and get more physical than the Raiders this Sunday. The Chiefs allow 29.7 points and 166 rushing yards per game this season. The Raiders should be a touchdown favorite here, but we’ll gladly take this great price with Oakland laying just a field goal at home. Take Oakland and lay the points.
Jack Jones
1* on Baltimore Ravens -7
I normally don't like laying a touchdown on the road in the NFL, and that is why this is only a small free pick instead of a larger premium selection. However, Cincinnati's offense is just so bad this year that I really don't see any way that they are going to be able to move the ball against this Ravens defense. The Bengals are averaging just over 10 ppg in AFC North games this year so it's no surprise they are 0-4 in the division. Baltimore on the other hand is scoring 25.5 ppg on the road for a 3-1 division record. The Ravens have also won three of their last four on the road, with their only loss coming at the NY Giants. The Giants are a LOT better than the Bengals, so don't think Baltimore won't win this one. They know they need it to keep pace for the playoff chase. Something the Bengals could stop worrying about weeks ago.
Mike Wynn
Carolina @ Green Bay
Well both these teams are off very disappointing losses last week. Carolina had to chance to put some distance between them and the Falcons with a win but Atlanta came up big in a 45-28 win in the Georgia Dome and now the Carolina Panthers trail by Tampa Bay by virtue of the tie break. Green Bay went into Monday night very confident that they would handle the Saints and stay tied with the Bears and Vikings atop the NFC North, but the Packers ran into hot QB and inspired Saints defense in the 51-29 loss. With the losses for both clubs last week this Game Sunday becomes very pivotal for both teams as neither can afford a loss. So who bounces back here on Sunday? Let’s take a look at both teams and start with the visiting Carolina Panthers.
Carolina Panthers now stand at 8-3 this season and are good shape for the playoff hunt, but with Romo back for the Cowboys, Dallas looks like a team coming on and Atlanta looks they’re not going away in the NFC South. The Panthers have to be more than a little concerned with their defense. Carolina defense was once considered their strong suit but now they’ll given up 67 points and 700 yards of offense over the last 2 games and the 45 points to Atlanta is the most allowed since Fox took over in 2002. No doubt Carolina is going to have to shore up the defensive side of the ball when they head to Lambeau Field to take on a Packer offense that’s pretty prolific this season. On the offensive side of the ball the Panthers have been good enough to win averaging 22.7 points per game this season. QB Jake Delhomme needed a few stitches in his right elbow after cutting on a helmet Sunday but will be fine to go this week. Delhomme’s season has been solid but less than spectacular with 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, but he doesn’t have to be spectacular in this offense. Panthers boast a nice running back tandem with Williams & Stewart, and you can always just throw it up and let perennial Pro Bowler Steve Smith go get it. Carolina offense isn’t going to wow anybody but they do take care of the ball and hopefully play good solid defense. A crushing loss for the Pack Monday night as they now trail both Chicago and Minnesota by a game in the NFC North. Packers simply can not afford a home loss here Sunday and they should play with some attitude on defense after allowing 51 points to New Orleans Monday. New Orleans didn’t hide the fact that they were going to throw the ball and the Packers were seemingly helpless to stop them giving up 318 yards passing, 4 touchdowns, and 2 of those for 70 yards. Offensively the Packers have been fine this season averaging 27½ points per game, and QB Aaron Rodgers has satisfied the Packer faithful, who were a bit skeptical after the whole Favre ordeal. Rodgers has tossed 17 touchdowns this season against 9 interceptions and his pass completion rate of 63% is solid. Ryan Grant who ended the year last year on a terror, is finally coming to form after sitting out most of pre-season and starting the year with injury. Packers have relied mainly on the passing game thus far this season and WR Greg Jennings has emerged as Rodger’s favorite target. Jennings leads the Pack with 56 catches and 6 touchdowns this season. This Sunday the Packers will need to get production in the running game and I expect a big defensive effort from the green and gold. Last time the Packer defense was embarrassed was in Minnesota and they bounced big a at home in a 37-3 win over Chicago.
So it’s time to check the trends and angles for this one Sunday. Carolina has always been a terrific underdog posting a 73-47 ATS mark since 1992 and a 50-31 ATS record as an underdog on the road, and the Panthers also a solid 15-5 ATS off a divisional loss over the same span. Green Bay also in a go with situation as they’re 12-4 ATS in all games when the line is 3 or less, their 19-8 ATS in all games the last couple seasons, and a solid 22-8 at home against winning teams the second half of the season since 1992. These two did play last year in Lambeau and the Packers got the better of it in a 31-17 win and the Packers are 6-3 ATS versus the Panthers since 1992. With both these teams off bad defensive performances I’m going to lean toward an under in this one on Sunday. Both defenses are better than they showed last week and we’re going to get big effort from both in this one.
Nevada Sharpshooter
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
The 6-5 Broncos travel to New York to take on the 8-3 Jets. The Broncos struggled badly against a bad Oakland team last week in a 10-31 loss. Having to go without injured CB Champ Bailey the defense let the normally ineffective JaMarcus Russell connect on 10 of 11 pass attempts. Once the Raiders had the lead they just ground it out and wore out the Bronco defense. Offensively the Jay Cutler had a poor outing, failing for the first time all season to throw for a touchdown. The Jets on the otherhand were giant killers as they handed the Titans their first loss of the season. The Jets have been solid in all aspects of the game. While the attention has been on Favre, the Jet defense has been playing well all season. Add a good running attack to the mix led by Thomas Jones and you have a team that is looking to go far in the playoffs. The Jets are also riding a 5 game winning streak.
While the Jets are obviously playing the better football right now, this is the NFL and as they say “on any given Sunday”. Prior to the Oakland game the Broncos had won road games at Cleveland and Atlanta, so you know they can play away from Denver. The Broncos may also have Champ Bailey back which may have a big impact. I also like Bronco QB Jay Cutler and the offense in general to rebound with a stong game. The Broncos may not win this game but I like them to keep it withing the 7.5 points.
Dr. Vegas
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay
This is an NFC South battle between two 7-4 ATS teams that could both benefit from a win here. Both are coming off of impressive wins and Vegas has had its finger on these teams, adjusting their value all season long. The game has opened at with Tampa Bay favored by 3.5, circled due to the questionable status of Saints running back Reggie Bush. Let’s take a look at each team in more detail.
Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. This is a team that has looked good all season long and has been a great value to players. They have covered the last 2 after losing the previous 3 ATS. Prior to that, they covered 5 straight. This is a textbook example of how Vegas will continue to adjust a team’s value until they become a losing proposition. At that point, they start adding value again. Knowing which way the pendulum is swinging is a key to making money at football. At 8-3 and only two recent covers, Vegas probably hasn’t started to de-Value the Bucs yet.
The Saints sit at the bottom of the NFC South, with a 6-5 mark. It could be argued they are one of the best last place division teams in the league, and really are only two games behind the Bucs. Like Tampa Bay, the Saints have also covered their last two games, including that huge 51-29 demolition of the Packers on Monday Night. If this team needed a confidence builder, that was it. They were able to make a statement in prime time that they are not out of it. They are losing their road games by an average of 6.8-points per game, so they still need to prove themselves on the road.
A few key trends to consider… Since the 2000 season:
Playing the UNDER for Tampa Bay is:
83-63 all games
53-35 as a favorite
37-21 as a home favorite
41-27 after a road game
Take Tampa Bay -3.5 over New Orleans. Also play this game under the total of 48. My numbers show the total landing around 36.
Razor Sharp Sports
Pittsburgh @ New England
It is crunch time in the NFL and even though every win is worth the same whether it is week 1 or week 17, this is the time of the year where they seem to be more inportant. Maybe it is because we have narrowed the teams down to the haves, the might have and the have nots. This week a pair of haves get together in a very big tilt in the AFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers bring their 8-3 record to Foxboro to take on the 7-4 New England Patriots. If the season was over right now, the Steelers would win the AFC North and the Patriots would be in a tie for the final wild card spot. Even though the Steelers are in the lead in their division, they are only up by a game over the Ravens and they still have to travel to Baltimore in 3 weeks. And talk about a tough schedule, over the next 4 weeks the Steelers have to go to 7-4 New England, then they are at home against 7-4 Dallas, followed by that match-up against division rival Baltimore, who is also 7-4 and finally they get to go to 11-1 Tennessee. Things aren’t as tough for New England. After hosting Pittsburgh, they go on the road to take on 2-9 Seattle and 3-8 New England. Before they move on to their upcoming schedules, lets take a closer look at this weeks match-up.
First of all we have the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh cruised to an pretty easy 27-10 win last Thursday night over the Cincinnati Bengals. In that games they outgained Cincinnati 364 to 208. The Steeler defense, which ranks 1st in almost every defensive catagory (points allowed, total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, & passing yards allowed) allowed just 43 yards rushing against the Bengals. The week before that they held LaDanian Tomlinson to just 57 yards and 66 total rushing yards to the Chargers. Offensively, Ben Roethlisberger has had to lead the way. RB Willie Parker has been banged up all season long. He played sparingly last week, but is again questionable this week. Mewelde Moore has done a nice job filling in. Roethlisberger, who has also been slowed by nagging injuries all year, hasn’t put up the numbers we are used to. This year he has thrown 11 TDs and had 11 ints. Compare this to last season where he finished with 32 TDs and 11 ints. With the injuries to the offense, it looks like this team will go as far as the defense takes them.
On the other side of the ball, we have the defending AFC champion New England Patriots. Things haven’t gone as smoothly this year as their perfect regular season from a year ago. First of all, of course, was the loss right off the back of QB Tom Brady. It looks like Brady’s back-up Matt Cassel has really started to get comfortable. Over the last two weeks, Cassel became only the third QB to have back-to-back 400 yard passing games. Over the last two games against the Dolphins and Jets, Cassel has combined for 815 yards on 60-94 with 6 TDs and 1 int. He has also run for 76 yards and another TD. For the season, Cassel is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2615 yards with 13 TDs and 8 ints. Cassel has a great group to throw to. Last week Randy Moss caught 8 passes for 125 yards and 3 TDs and Wes Welker added 8 more catches for 120 yards. For the year, Welker is second in the NFL with 80 catches for 838 yards but only 1 TD (compared to 8 in 2007). Moss has added 54 catches for 740 yards and 8 TDs (last year he finished with 23). The ground game has struggled all year. Laurence Maroney couldn’t get much going early in the year before he got injured. Since then, no one has been consistently handling the running duties. The Patriots do not have a rusher with over 400 yards for the season. The trio of Kevin Faulk, Sammie Morris and BenJarvis Green-Ellis have done an ok job, but down the stretch and in the playoffs, I believe you need that one back to rely on when things get tough. Defensively I think the Pats are getting old. They have given up 62 points over the last two weeks. They are averaging 20.2 points allowed per game, compared to 17.1 last season. They are also allowing 28 yards per game more this season.
Both of these teams could still very well get hot and run the table all the way to the Super Bowl, but right now they both have plenty of questions. This game will be the defense of the Steelers taking on the offense of the Patriots. So who comes out ahead. Well lets just say, I think the best play for right now is to play the UNDER. With Willie Parker questionable, I don’t know if Big Ben’s offense can do much against the older Patriot D-unit. Also look for the Steelers defense to try to confuse the young Cassel.
Take PITTSBURGH/NEW ENGLAND UNDER the total of 40
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
DEN +9 vs NYJ
The Broncos should prove to be a very dangerous dog in this spot. Theyre catching the Jets right after New York just handed the Tennessee Titans their very first loss of the season. Not only that, Denver is catching the Jets back home in New York. While this may seem like a good thing for the Jets, what it really means is simply extra line value for backers of the Broncos here. We get an opportunity to take a talented road dog getting a handful of points against a home team that will get caught still celebrating last weeks big win. The Broncos just lost at home to the Raiders in ugly fashion. Because of this, no one will want Denver here and that is one an underdog is often its most dangerous. They will be given very little respect by the Jets, the odds makers, and the bettors and then, come Sunday; they step up their game and make a statement. Yes, the Broncos have struggled defensively this season but theyve also thrived on offense. The Jets defense is also bound for a letdown after holding the Titans in check last week. Offensively the Jets will just want to grind out a win here as they will look to a heavy dose of the ground game and, physically, this team is beat up after last weeks big win over the Titans. Not only did the Jets just face a physical Tennessee team, they had previously defeated the division rival Patriots in overtime in a huge Thursday night win. There simply has to be a letdown here. It happens all the time in the NFL and its simply too much for a Jets team to maintain their high level of play when they just knocked off a Patriots team that is now 7-4 on the season and a Titans team that was 10-0 on the season. Yes, the Broncos are 6-5 on the season but the Jets see them as a team that just lost 31 to 10 at home to the Raiders of all teams! However, within that loss, would you believe the Broncos actually outgained Oakland The fact is that the Raiders benefited greatly from two Denver turnovers as well as a punt return for a touchdown! The Broncos had it handed to them last week when they least expected it. Now don?t be surprised if they turn around and return the favor this week against a team who least expects it. This is the NFL after all and thats how this stuff often rolls! Grab the points with the Broncos!
King Creole
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Play: OVER THE TOTAL
The pathetic scoring defense of the Chiefs just gave up 54 whopping points to the Bills last week. They have now allowed 32.8 PPG in their last 7 games. That works for me, especially since their offensive scoring is ALSO up with the new spread offense (24 PPG L4 compared to 16.2 in first 4 games). That 54-31 home loss from Sunday is where we start.
9-1 O/U last 5 years for all NFL teams off a SU dog loss in which they allowed 50 or more points.
The Chiefs are probably happy to get away from Arrowhead Stadium, where they just dropped 2 games by large margins (54-31 loss to Buffalo and 30-20 loss to New Orleans).
Since 1981, NFL underdogs of 6 home favs of -9 < pts playing off a big road win of 20 or more points..... and 7-1 O/U L3Y for all home favs of -5 < pts off BB ATS road wins... with the last an outright SU win.
In these AFC WEST division games, we note that home favs of -3 < pts are 5-0 O/U off a SU win vs any opp off a DD SU win.
Larry Ness
GBP -3 vs CAR
The 8-3 Panthers were manhandled in a 45-28 loss at Atlanta last Sunday, allowing the most points in coach John Fox's seven seasons as the team's head coach. Meanwhile, the Packers lost 51-29 at New Orleans on Monday night, allowing the most points by a Green Bay team since a 51-21 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on September 21, 1980. Does that mean the teams will "tighten up" on defense this Sunday? I think not. The Panthers were second in the NFL in scoring defense two weeks ago but fell to seventh after giving up 67 points in their last two games. The Packers entered their Monday night game in New Orleans third in pas defense but allowed Brees to throw for 323 yards and four touchdowns. The matchups in this game set up for another high scoring game, despite weather conditions which won't be the best. Green Bay's rushing defense is terrible, allowing 142.9 YPG (4.8 YPC) and the Panthers have two solid RBs. Williams is up to 883 yards on the season (5.1 YPC / 7 TDS), after topping 100 yards in four straight games (6.8 YPC in that span). Rookie Stewart has 528 yards (4.3 YPC / 6 TDs). Delhomme has had a nice comeback this year from Tommy John surgery and while he's no Brees, he has better WRs in Smith and Muhammad. All things considered, Rodgers has a good season replacing Brett Favre. He's completed 63.5 percent, has a 17-9 ratio and a 90.5 QB rating. WRs Jennings and Driver have both had solid seasons and Ryan Grant has averaged 93.0 YPG on the ground the last seven games, since shaking off some nagging minor injuries. Green Bay is 5-6 in the NFC North, trailing Chicago and Minnesota (both 6-5). The Bears and Vikings meet on Sunday night, so the Packers know that a win keeps them one game behind Sunday night's winner and tied with its loser. As for the Panthers, they are off an embarrassing loss to the Falcons and have a home game with the Bucs next Sunday (both are 8-3 heading into this weekend). I expect a high scoring game but I also favor the 'desperate' home team over the 8-3 road team which finds itself between division rivals Atlanta (last week) and Tamp Bay (next week). Take the Pack.
Sports Gambling Hotline
San Francisco at BUFFALO -6'
With the weather in Buffalo this time of the season always a question mark, you have to immediately look to the UNDER in the Bills home games, but we are going to forget all about the weather, as the Niners and Bills have been playing them HIGH regardless of rain, snow, sleet, or wind.
San Francisco has played OVER the total in ALL 4 games under coach Mike Singletary, and they have been OVER the posted price in 6 of their last 7 games overall.
Buffalo found their offense last week in a 54-31 win at Kansas City on a very sloppy field, and their game before that at home in that cold Monday nighter against Cleveland also found its way OVER the posted price.
We expect there to be enough offense in this one to take it OVER the posted price come money time, and are going with the HIGH as our Sunday comp selection.
Play on the OVER.
3♦ OVER