Bobby Maxwell
New Orleans at TAMBA BAY -4
Classic game here with the offense of the Saints against the defense of the Bucs. We always like to side with the defense and we'll play Tampa Bay to win this one by 10.
The Bucs can completely control the clock today with RBs Earnest Graham, Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams. The running game, plus some smart QB play from Jeff Garcia and the stingy defense will lead Tampa to a win today.
They are on a 5-1 run since Garcia re-assumed the QB duties in mid-October. They have won three in a row and are tied in the NFC South. The Bucs got a 38-20 win over the Lions last weekend and coming into this one they are 5-0 in Tampa this season.
The defense is third in the league in points allowed at 16.4 per game and fourth in total defense, allowing 288.9 yards per game. They forced three turnovers in the win over the Lions and they'll get some INTs today vs. Drew Brees.
I know the Saints looked like a machine Monday night, putting up points at will. But that was at home, in the comfortable environment of the Superdome and against a Packers' defense that isn't that good.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
Karl Garrett
Chicago at MINNESOTA
The G-Man likes tonight's primetimer in the Metrodome to see a few points scored.
The first time the Bears and Vikings hooked up back on October 19th, the teams combined for a massive 89-points, as the Bears recorded the 48-41 home win.
Expect more of the same tonight, as the OVER has been the series play to a 4-1-1 tune the last 6 times these NFC North teams have played.
Minnesota has been getting some consistent offensive play, as the Vikings have scored 28, 28, 13, and 30 points over their last 4 games, while the Bears did ring up 27 points in their win last week at St. Louis. Chicago probably could have scored another 2 TDs in that game, but they played it conservative once they raced out to the big lead.
The G-Man feels that we are going to head OVER the posted total once again in this Bears-Vikes rivalry.
Take the OVER.
4♦ OVER
SPORTS ADVISORS
Denver (6-5, 4-7 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (8-3, 7-4 ATS)
The streaking Jets, going for their sixth straight victory, welcome the inconsistent Broncos to the Meadowlands.
New York handed Tennessee its first loss of the season with a 34-13 rout as a 5½-point road underdog last Sunday, winning for the fifth straight week and cashing for the fourth week in a row. QB Brett Favre (25 of 32, 224 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) helped the Jets post a 409-281 edge in total yards, with New York rushing for 192 yards and more than doubling the Titans in time of possession (40:30-19:30).
Denver, laying nine points at home against the hapless Raiders, got pounded 31-10 to abruptly halt a two-game SU and ATS winning streak. QB Jay Cutler (16 of 37, 204 yards, 0 TDs) had both of the Broncos’ turnovers, throwing one INT and losing a fumble. Denver edged Oakland in total yards (319-318) but did almost nothing with the ball, getting a field goal in the first half and a third-quarter touchdown.
These teams last met in 2005, with Denver rolling 27-0 as a 14-point home chalk, and the Broncos are 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade.
The Jets are on ATS runs of 11-6-1 as a home chalk, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-0 in November and 4-1 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Broncos are in ATS freefalls of 9-25-1 overall, 5-12 on the highway, 3-8 as a road underdog, 4-12 against winning teams and 1-5 after a non-cover.
The under for Denver is on a 5-1-1 overall run, but otherwise the over is on streaks of 8-3-1 in the Broncos road games, 19-7-1 when Denver plays on grass, 4-0-1 for the Jets overall and 5-2 when the Jets play on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and OVER
San Francisco (3-8, 4-7 ATS) at Buffalo (6-5, 5-6 ATS)
The Bills try to climb back into the AFC playoff picture when they take on the 49ers in a non-conference contest at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Buffalo whipped Kansas City 54-31 last week as a three-point road chalk, halting a four-game SU and ATS freefall. QB Trent Edwards (24 of 32, 273 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a flawless offense that had no turnovers and 444 total yards. Although the Bills allowed 462 yards, they forced five turnovers – returning an INT for a score – and were never threatened.
San Francisco lost to Dallas 35-22 as a 9½-point road pup, ending the 49ers’ two-game ATS uptick, and the SU winner is now 21-1 ATS in the team’s last 22 games (10-1 ATS this year). QB Shaun Hill (21 of 33, 303 yards, 2 TDs) accounted for nearly all of the 49ers’ offense, but he also threw an INT and lost one of his two fumbles. San Francisco finished more than nine minutes behind in time of possession (34:43-25:17).
These teams have split two meetings this decade both SU and ATS, with Buffalo most recently breezing 41-7 as an 11-point road favorite in 2004.
The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six November contests, but they sport positive pointspread trends of 24-6-1 against losing teams, 14-6 on turf and 6-2 hosting NFC foes. The 49ers are on ATS plunges of 2-6 overall, 3-9 on the road, 5-11 after a SU loss and 1-4 against winning teams, and they are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games in the Eastern Time Zone.
The over for Buffalo is on runs of 7-1-1 at home, 8-1-1 on turf and 4-1-1 in November, and the over for San Francisco is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-2-1 on the road, 4-0 on turf and 4-0 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
New Orleans (6-5, 7-4 ATS) at Tampa Bay (8-3, 7-4 ATS)
The Buccaneers go after their fourth straight win when they take on the Saints in an NFC South clash at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay started slow, then rolled past winless Detroit 38-20 last Sunday as a nine-point road chalk for its third straight win and second consecutive cover. QB Jeff Garcia (13 of 18, 165 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) lost a pair of fumbles among three turnovers as the Bucs fell behind 17-0, but Tampa also forced three turnovers. Ronde Barber had two picks, with the first quickly converted into a TD and the second run back for a score, and Tampa also had a punt-return TD.
Playing its first game in the Superdome in more than 40 days, New Orleans ripped Green Bay 51-29 on Monday night as a one-point home favorite for its second straight win and cover. QB Drew Brees (20 of 26, 323 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) had another solid outing, RB Pierre Thomas (15 carries, 87 yards) scored two TDs, and the Saints finished with a 3-1 edge in the turnover battle.
New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 24-20 as a three-point chalk in Week 1, halting a two-game SU and ATS run by the Bucs. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes between these rivals, and the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 contests, but Tampa is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall.
The Buccaneers are on ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 10-3 at home, 6-1-1 as a division favorite, 5-1 against winning teams and 5-1 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Saints are on ATS slides of 1-5 after a SU win, 4-11 after a pointspread win and 3-7 in the NFC South. Also, the home team is 7-0 (6-1 ATS) in NFC South contests this season.
The under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 5-2 overall and 5-1 at home, but the over is 5-2 in the Bucs’ last seven division tilts. Furthermore, the over for New Orleans is on tears of 12-3-1 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-1 in division games and16-5 after a SU win. Lastly, the total has gone high in six straight meetings in this rivalry, and the over is 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Tampa.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and OVER
Carolina (8-3, 5-4-2 ATS) at Green Bay (5-6, 7-4 ATS)
The Packers, needing a win to keep pace in the mediocre NFC North, take on the NFC South-leading Panthers at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay got belted by New Orleans 51-29 Monday night as a one-point road pup, halting a 5-0 ATS surge. QB Aaron Rodgers (23 of 41, 248 yards) had two TD passes, but he also threw three INTs as the Packers finished with a 3-1 turnover deficit, and Green Bay got outscored 27-8 in the second half.
Carolina also tumbled last week, falling to Atlanta 45-28 getting one point on the road, giving the SU winner a 23-3-1 ATS mark in the Panthers’ last 27 games (8-2-1 ATS this season). QB Jake Delhomme (21 of 35, 295 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, but Carolina gave up a punt-return TD late that essentially sealed the game.
Green Bay has cashed in three straight games against Carolina, including a 31-17 home win last year as a 10-point favorite. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the road team 4-1 ATS in that same stretch. Additionally, the underdog is on a 6-2-1 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Packers sport ATS streaks of 21-8-1 overall, 8-3 at home, 11-5-1 as a favorite, 8-2-1 after a SU loss, 8-2-2 after a non-cover, and 7-2 in November. The Panthers are on positive ATS stretches of 6-0 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread dips of 1-7 in November, 1-4 against the NFC and 2-5 as a ‘dog of less than four points.
The over for Green Bay is on sprees of 21-6-1 overall, 8-2 at Lambeau, 11-3 on grass and 7-2 against winning teams, but the under for Carolina is on runs of 7-3 overall, 10-3 in November, 6-2 on grass and 6-2 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
N.Y. Giants (10-1, 9-2 ATS) at Washington (7-4, 5-6 ATS)
The Giants pursue their seventh straight victory when they head to FedEx Field for an NFC East clash with the Redskins.
New York dropped Arizona 37-29 as a three-point road favorite, winning and cashing for the sixth consecutive week. QB Eli Manning (26 of 33, 240 yards, 3 TDS, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, while the Giants forced two miscues and returner/wideout Domenik Hixon had a whopping 269 all-purpose yards.
Washington edged Seattle 20-17 to push as a three-point road favorite, as the Redskins failed to cash for the third straight week (0-2-1 ATS). RB Clinton Portis (29 carries, 143 yards) led a running game that racked up 187 yards, and QB Jason Campbell (20 of 33, 206 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a clean day. The Redskins finished with 386 yards, while allowing just 228, and won the time-of-possession battle by nearly 17 minutes (38:27-21:33).
The SU winner is now 21-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 23 games (10-1 ATS this season) and 16-1-1 ATS in the Redskins’ last 18 starts (9-1-1 ATS this season).
New York is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 16-7 victory as a 4½-point chalk in Week 1, and the favorite has cashed in six of the last eight meetings.
The Giants are on nothing but positive pointspread runs, including 23-6 overall, 21-6 on the highway, 4-0 in division play, 13-3 against winning teams, 18-6 after a SU win and 21-7 after a spread-cover. The Redskins, meanwhile, carry ATS trends of 22-10-1 against winning teams, 7-3 after a SU win and 5-2 inside the division. But Washington is just 5-11-1 ATS in its 17 home games, including a current 0-4 ATS slide at FedEx, and Jim Zorn’s team is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six overall.
The over for New York is on stretches of 7-2-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0-1 in November and 7-1-1 after a SU win, and the total has gone high in six of the Giants’ last seven trips to D.C. However, the under for Washington is on streaks of 6-0-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 5-1 in division play, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five clashes in this rivalry overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK
Miami (6-5, 5-6 ATS) at St. Louis (2-9, 3-8 ATS)
The Dolphins, trying to stay in the AFC playoff chase, travel to the Edward Jones Dome for a non-conference contest against the lowly Rams.
Miami got beat up by New England 48-28 as a one-point home ‘dog, ending a four-game winning streak for the Dolphins, who failed to cash for the third straight week. QB Chad Pennington (24 of 41, 341 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid day, but the Dolphins’ defense allowed a whopping 530 yards, including 415 passing yards and three TDs from Pats QB Matt Cassel.
St. Louis fell to Chicago 27-3 as a seven-point home pup, giving the SU winner a 13-1 ATS mark in the Rams’ last 14 games (10-1 ATS this season). QB Marc Bulger left the game early in the first quarter after a hit to the head, and backup Trent Green (16 of 30, 219 yards, 0 TDs) imploded with four INTs. The Rams, down 24-3 at halftime, finished with a meager 207 total yards, while allowing 334.
These franchises last met in 2004 and have split two contests this decade both SU and ATS, with the home team winning and covering each time.
The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five roadies, but they are on a 7-21-1 ATS freefall against losing teams and are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six starts against the NFC. The Rams carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-10 overall (0-4 in the last four games), 1-6 at home, 1-7-1 against the AFC and 7-19 against winning teams.
The under for Miami is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 7-1 in November, but the over for St. Louis is on runs of 6-2 at home, 6-2 on turf, 10-2 after a non-cover and 11-4 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Baltimore (7-4, 8-3 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-9-1, 4-7 ATS)
The Ravens, aiming to stay on Pittsburgh’s heels in the AFC North, head to Paul Brown Stadium for a division game against the hapless Bengals.
Baltimore routed Philadelphia 36-7 as a one-point home chalk, and the SU winner is now 20-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 22 games (10-1 ATS this season). Baltimore didn’t do much offensively, finishing with just 248 total yards, but the defense forced five turnovers and the Ravens outscored the Eagles 26-0 in the second half, holding Philly to just 206 total yards.
Cincinnati returns after a 10-day break following its 27-10 road loss to Pittsburgh, coming up short as an 11½-point underdog to end a two-game ATS uptick. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (20 of 37, 168 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) didn’t generate much for an offense that held the ball for less than 25 minutes, as Cincy finished with just 208 yards, while allowing 364.
Baltimore opened the season with a 17-10 win over Cincinnati as a one-point home pup, ending a three-game SU and ATS run by the Bengals in this rivalry. The favorite is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 clashes between these two, but the home team has cashed in five of the last six. Finally, Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at home and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall.
The Ravens are on ATS skids of 4-10 on the highway and 1-4 as a division road favorite, but they are on pointspread surges of 5-1 overall, 5-0 against losing teams, 5-0 inside the division and 5-1 after a SU win. The Bengals are on a 16-6-1 ATS streak in November contests, but they are on ATS slides of 0-4 in division play, 1-7 against AFC foes and 2-5 as a home ‘dog against AFC North rivals.
The over for Baltimore is on tears of 5-0-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the road, 5-0-1 in November, 6-0 against losing teams and 5-1 in division contests. Conversely, for Cincinnati, the under is on rolls of 11-5-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 6-2 inside the division and 9-3-1 against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
Indianapolis (7-4, 5-6 ATS) at Cleveland (4-7, 6-5 ATS)
The surging Colts go after their fifth straight victory when they make a relatively short road trip to take on the Browns.
Indianapolis topped San Diego 23-20 getting three points on the road, winning on Adam Vinatieri’s 51-yard field goal as time expired for its fourth straight victory (2-2 ATS). QB Peyton Manning (32 of 44, 255 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) led the game-winning drive, which included a 13-yard completion to Marvin Harrison on fourth-and-1 at midfield.
Cleveland tumbled to Houston 16-6 as a three-point home chalk, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. QB Brady Quinn (8 of 18, 94 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) committed two of the Browns’ five turnovers before getting yanked late in the third quarter, and Derek Anderson (5 of 14, 51 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) wasn’t much better as Cleveland got outgained 383-240 and held the ball for just 22:35.
Quinn, who played last week despite a broken right finger, is now done for the year, leaving the offenses in the hands of Anderson.
Indianapolis is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings with Cleveland, but the teams have split the cash during this stretch. Most recently, the Colts prevailed 13-6 at home in 2005, but the Browns got the cover as a 14-point underdog.
The Colts are on a 9-5 ATS run as a non-division road chalk, but they are on a 1-7 ATS slide following a spread-cover and are 3-6 ATS this season as a favorite. The Browns, despite their sub-par SU record, are on ATS streaks of 18-8 overall, 9-4 at home, 7-2 after a non-cover, 10-3 after a SU loss and 12-5 as an underdog.
The over for Indianapolis is on upticks of 4-1 on the road and 4-1 on grass, but the under for Cleveland is on stretches of 12-5 overall and 11-4 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Atlanta (7-4 SU and ATS) at San Diego (4-7 SU and ATS)
The surprising Falcons, aiming to stay in the thick of the NFC playoff race, make the cross-country trek to Southern California to take on the freefalling Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium.
Atlanta dumped Carolina 45-28 as a one-point home chalk, making the SU winner 19-1 ATS in the Falcons’ last 20 games, including a perfect 11-0 ATS this season. RB Michael Turner (24 carries, 117 yards) had four TD runs, and rookie QB Matt Ryan (17 of 27, 259 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) played a turnover-free game, leading the Falcons to four fourth-quarter touchdowns as they pulled away after leading 17-13 through three quarters.
San Diego lost to Indianapolis 23-20 on Adam Vinatieri’s last-second, 51-yard field goal, failing to cover as a three-point home favorite in falling to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. QB Philip Rivers (24 of 31, 288 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a solid outing, but he lost a fumble in the red zone on the first drive of the second half, and the Colts ultimately converted the turnover into a touchdown.
These squads have met just once this decade, with Atlanta claiming a 21-20 victory in 2004, but San Diego got the cash as a 5½-point road pup in 2004.
The Falcons are on a 2-5 ATS dip as a road underdog, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 12-5 on grass and 13-6 against losing teams. The Chargers, despite their recent woes, are on ATS runs of 9-3 overall at home, 8-3 as a home chalk, 16-6-3 after a SU loss and 6-2-1 against winning teams.
The under for Atlanta is on streaks of 35-16-1 on the highway, 4-1 on grass, 10-4 against losing teams and 17-7 in November, and the under for San Diego is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-2 at Qualcomm, 4-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Pittsburgh (8-3, 5-6 ATS) at New England (7-4, 6-5 ATS)
The Steelers, going after their third straight win, roll into Gillette Stadium after a 10-day layoff for a meeting with the defending AFC champion Patriots.
Pittsburgh throttled Cincinnati 27-10 as an 11½-point home favorite on Nov. 17, ending a two-game ATS skid. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 30, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a fair outing, but the Steelers defense was the difference, allowing just 208 total yards and helping Pittsburgh finish with a nearly 11-minute time-of-possession edge (35:20-24:40).
New England rolled past Miami 48-28 as a one-point road chalk, moving to 3-1 ATS in its last four games (2-2 SU). QB Matt Cassel (30 of 43, 415 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a career day, helping the Pats outscore the Dolphins 31-14 in the second half, and New England finished with an eye-popping 530-392 advantage in total yards.
New England has won and covered in the last three clashes between these AFC rivals, including a 34-13 rout last December as a 10½-point home favorite. The Pats are 7-1 ATS in the last eight clashes (6-2 SU), and the underdog has covered in seven of the last nine meetings.
The Patriots are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games against winning teams, but they are on ATS downfalls of 2-9 at home, 2-10 after a SU win and 1-7 after a spread-cover. The Steelers are on pointspread declines of 4-9 on the road, 1-6 after an ATS win, 2-5 in November and 2-5 against winning teams.
The over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 5-1 against AFC opponents, 4-1 after a SU win and 12-5-1 after a spread-cover, but the under for New England is on a bevy of surges, including 11-5-2 overall, 8-2-2 at home, 9-3-1 after a SU win, 9-3-2 against the AFC and 13-5 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kansas City (1-10, 5-6 ATS) at Oakland (3-8, 5-6 ATS)
Two of the worst teams in the league get together when the Raiders host the Chiefs in an AFC West contest at McAfee Coliseum.
Oakland is coming off a stunning 31-10 bashing of Denver as a nine-point road pup, ending a four-game losing streak while covering for the second straight week. QB JaMarcus Russell (10 of 11, 152 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) did a lot with a limited number of throws in leading a turnover-free offense, and RB Justin Fargas (24 carries, 107 yards) helped set up two fourth-quarter TDs to seal the upset. The Raiders finished with a 2-0 edge in turnovers.
Kansas City got buried by Buffalo 54-31 as a three-point home underdog for its seventh consecutive loss (3-4 ATS). QB Tyler Thigpen (17 of 31, 240 yards) threw three TD passes, but he also had two INTs and lost a fumble among the Chiefs’ five turnovers, while the defense didn’t force a turnover, which made Kansas city’s 462-444 edge in total offense meaningless.
Oakland has won and covered the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 23-8 road victory in September as a 3½-point ‘dog. However, the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to McAfee, the road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes and the underdog is on a 4-1 ATS uptick.
The Raiders are on pointspread slides of 17-35-1 at home overall, 2-9 at home against AFC West rivals, 3-8 following a spread-cover and 19-39-1 against losing teams. The Chiefs are on ATS skids of 2-5 in the division, 5-11 on grass and 14-30 in November, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 9-3 on the highway and 5-2 in divisional road games.
The under for Oakland is on stretches of 4-0 overall and 4-0 in November, and the under for Kansas City is on runs of 4-0 against losing teams, 11-5 in roadies and 15-7 inside the division. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last seven battles overall and five of the last six in Oakland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Chicago (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) at Minnesota (6-5, 4-7 ATS)
The Bears travel to the Metrodome to take on the Vikings in a prime-time battle for first place in the medicore NFC North.
Chicago ripped lowly St. Louis 27-3 as a seven-point road chalk to end a two-game SU skid and a three-game ATS slide, and the SU winner is now 22-2-1 ATS in Chicago’s last 25 games (9-1-1 ATS this season). QB Kyle Orton (17 of 28, 132 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t do a lot, but he didn’t need to, as RB Matt Forte (21 carries, 139 yards, 2 TDs) led a ground game that netted 208 yards. The Bears posted a 334-207 advantage in total yards and won the turnover battle 4-2.
Minnesota whacked Jacksonville 30-12 as a one-point road pup, halting a two-game ATS skid. The Vikes finished with just 226 total yards, while allowing 321, but they forced five turnovers – while committing just one – and converted three Jags fumbles into 17 points. Minnesota ran a fumble back for a TD on the game’s first play from scrimmage, then recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and scored three plays later to go up 14-0 less than two minutes into the game.
Chicago has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these rivals (2-2 SU), winning a 48-41 shootout as a three-point home favorite in October. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests with Minnesota, but the host is on a 9-3 ATS streak.
The Bears are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 starts after a SU win, and the Vikings are on several ATS purges, including 4-10 overall, 2-5 at home, 0-7 after a SU win, 0-5 inside the division and 0-4 after a spread-cover.
The under is 7-0 in Chicago’s last seven road games, but the over is 26-11-1 in the Bears’ last 38 contests against NFC foes, and the over for Minnesota is on runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 in November. Finally, the over is on a 4-1-1 stretch in the last six series meetings, with both teams clearing the 38-point total in last month’s battle.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
John Ryan
New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Play:Washington Redskins +3.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington Redskins - Ok, Plexico is very unfortunate, but his absence has no bearing at all on the grading of this. After all, it was highly unlikely he would start due to a nagging hamstring injury. More on matchups later. AiS shows an 82% probability that Washington will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 41-14 ATS for 75% since 1997. Play on dogs or pick revenging a same season loss facing an opponent that is a good team sporting a winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Giants are just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus. poor punt coverage teams allowing >= 12 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992. HC Coughlin in a poor role noting he is just 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. Washington has improved a lot since their 16-7 loss to the Giants in the opening week. You may remember too that the Redskins dropped THREE interceptions passed by Manning. Washington has 4 excellent defenders in the secondary and all of them are excellent in man coverage. This will enable to disguise their play scheme until the moment before the snap making it very difficult for Manning to make reads. This time around the Washington running game will dominate the LOS. Portis will be ready for this game and in so doing it will open up easy play action pass opportunities down the field in a variety of patterns. Washington gets it's revenge and stays at least second place for the Wild Card. Take Washington.
Nelly
Cleveland + over Indianapolis
The Colts have climbed back into the playoff hunt with four consecutive wins but Indianapolis has not been a strong road favorite. The QB situation for the Browns has original starter Anderson coming back and the offense should get some results after a terrible effort last week. The Browns have risen up to play well in some of its biggest games as this will be a marquee match-up for a team with a solid record in the home underdog role. The public is all over the Colts this week, with online numbers approaching 85 percent action on Indianapolis but the number has been steady, even falling in a few spots meaning that smart money may like the home underdog.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Washington Redskins
The Redskins host the Giants in a key NFC East Division battle in the nation's capital on Sunday with revenge on their minds from a season opening loss suffered in the Big Apple. This game depends on which pair of glasses you choose to look through. Frontrunners alike see a defending champ out in front of the pack, mowing down anything in their path en route to another ticket to the Super Bowl. Others choose to focus in on a team mired in a battle for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs with revenge against a team with a fat three-game division lead. What we see is a team that plays to the level of competition like clockwork. Under head coach Jim Zorn the Skins are 3-2 SU and 1-3-1 ATS against losing teams and 4-2 SU and ATS against .500 or better opposition. In fact, they've gone toe-to-toe against three undefeated teams and have won and covered all three games. Tie that into Tom Coughlin's dismal 3-9 ATS career mark as a division favorite in games off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS if his team scored 28 or more points in its previous game, and we'll grab the points with the Skins here today.
Jimmy The Moose
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Over
The Saints are averaging 28.8 PPG and are giving up 25.3 per game and the over is a profitable 7-3-1 on the year. In their last 16 overall the over is 12-3-1. The over is 21-8-1 in the Saints last 30 games vs. NFC opponents. The Saints have played over the total in 5 of their last 7 road games. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. NFC South teams. Tampa has played the over in 2 of their last 3 games. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 divisional games. In their last 10 games following an ATS win the over is 7-3. The last 6 meetings between the clubs have played the over and this one follows suit. Play the over.
Ted Sevransky
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: Carolina Panthers
Carolina matches up extremely well with Green Bay, and the Panthers certainly won’t be taking this game lightly after last week’s debacle in Atlanta. The Panthers are one of the league’s best running teams, ranked fifth in the NFL in the crucial ‘yards per carry’ stat. DeAngelo Williams is a threat to take it to the end zone every time he touches the ball, while Jonathan Stewart is a bruising change of pace back between the tackles. Williams and Stewart have 13 touchdowns and more than 1400 yards between them. Just as importantly, the duo have combined for only one fumble all season long.
Green Bay can’t stop the run – period. Things have gotten particularly ugly for the Packers since star linebacker Nick Barnett went on injured reserve, with safeties Nick Collins and Atari Bigby both battling nagging injuries as well. The better rushing teams that the Packers have faced – Dallas, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, just to name three – have basically run the ball at will against this defense. We can expect Carolina to do the same.
The mystique of Lambeau Field still holds a powerful sway among bettors. The reality of the Packers edge at home is not so great; a modest 3-2 straight up on the frozen tundra in ’08. The Packers have lost all three of their games SU against arguably the best division in football – the NFC South – losing that trio by a combined five touchdowns against the pointspread, I wouldn’t count on a better result this time around….. Take Carolina.
Frank Jordan
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -4.5
Atlanta is a big surprise in the NFL this year as the rookie QB Matt Ryan is keeping their playoff hopes alive with a 7-4 mark just one game out of first place. San Diego is 4-7 and having an awful year but still is just 2 games out of first place and are 3-2 at home this year. Atlanta is solid at home but the road is a different story and flying cross country doesn't help their 2-3 road record look for San Diego to climb closer to .500 with the home win. Play San Diego
John Fisher
Cornell vs. Indiana U
Play: Cornell -2.5
This is a nearly treat from me to all to introduce the NCAA College basketball season. This line is off by 8 points. Indiana has the pedigree but cannot match up against this silent DARK HORSE from the IVY league. Cornell has all of its main starters that returned from making the NCAA Tournament. Ryan Wittman, Louis Dale and Alex Tyler all return to spark a deadly shooting 44% and FT 88% team. Wittman is a sharp shooter that is hard to guard. Indiana will have to show some majot intensity to keep this game close. It will be the other BIG RED that takes this contest. Cornell 68 Hoosiers 61
GameTime Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills -6.5
Take the Bills as your play on Sunday. No West Coast team has won coming east this season. Two teams, the Raiders vs this Bills and the Cards, off their bye in Carolina hung in to cover. Last time out here the Giants beat up on SF. Now, Buffalo isn't New York, but it is still cold and the Niners are still, well, bad. Take the BILLS
Dwayne Bryant
Denver Broncos +9
The Jets are hot, coming off two impressive wins at New England and at previously undefeated Tennessee last week. The Jets made the Titans look like a 3-7 football team. But after an emotional revenge win at their biggest division rival and coming off a win on the road against a 10-0 team, the Jets can't help but come out a bit flat here. Denver, on the other hand, should be plenty fired up after being humiliated at home by the lowly Raiders, 31-10. This game is almost guaranteed to come down to whoever has the ball last.
Take the Denver Broncos +9
Bob Balfe
Rams +9 over Dolphins
First off the Dolphins should not be a 9pt favorite to anybody in this league especially when they just let Matt Cassel of the Patriots throw for 400+ yards on them. The Rams cornerbacks matchup well against the smaller Dolphins receivers and on turf Miami might not be able to catch up with the pace of the game as they are not used to playing on it. St.Louis matches up well on offense and should put up some points. If you are feeling up to it this is a moneyline play which would be about a 3/1 hit. Take the Rams.
Masterbets
Bet on the BILLS to cover the spread
Buffalo should have an easy time of it in this spot facing a very mediocre 49ers team that has to travel from the West Coast and play an early game. Add to that the expected chilly weather, the fact that the Bills have been solid at home and are coming off a much-needed win last week (a profitable rout over the Chiefs, where we had the Bills), and the spread looks a little too small for the favorites.
Our database predicts a double-digit margin of victory for the BILLS so lay the -6.5 points and savor some home cooking