Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Houston -3 vs Jacksonville
Single Plays
Indy -5 vs Cleveland
Denver +7.5 vs NY Jets
Oakland -3 vs KC
NY Giants -3.5 vs Washington
Green Bay -3 vs Carolina
Buffalo/San Francisco Over 42.5
NY Jets/Denver Under 47.5
Houston/Jacksonville Over 48.5
Randall the Handle
NEW ENGLAND –1 over Pittsburgh
Put pressure on Big Ben and he instantly becomes a very ordinary QB. The Patriots possess one of the best pass rushes in the league and they’ll make life miserable for this average offense. The Steelers have beaten a bunch of non-playoff teams that include Cincinnati, Houston, Cleveland, Jacksonville and San Diego by a point but when they played some playoff bound teams they lost. They were dominated by the Eagles early in the year and they lost to both the G-Men and the Colts. They have one notable road win this year against the Redskins but Washington’s stock has been on the decline for about a month now. The Patriots are coming on big time and now Matt Cassels looks as good as any QB out there. He’s thrown for 400+ yards in consecutive weeks and not many QB’s in the history of this game can make that claim. Cassels is playing with a ton of confidence and the receivers are now right behind him. He can also scramble, which gives the offense an even better look. New England at home laying a point feels so right against an offense that simply cannot keep pace. Play: New England –1 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Atlanta +1.83 over SAN DIEGO
Norv Turner and the whole Charger team just find ways to lose and they’re not very good to begin with. Have you ever witnessed a more inept coach then Turner because I sure haven’t. Last week against Indy he challenged an 8-yard completed pass in the first quarter on first and 10. Regardless of whether he was right or wrong, the challenge was useless and meant absolutely nothing at that point in the game. If it were overturned it would have been 2cd and 10. Big fu***en deal. You challenge on big plays Norm. You challenge in the fourth quarter with the game on the line Norv. You don’t challenge on a first and 10 in the first quarter on an eight-yard completion. Anyway, the Chargers are a mess. Mentally, this team is elsewhere and one must question how they’ll come out this week after losing again last week in a must-win game. What I do know is the Dirty Birds are getting better with each passing week but they’re still off everyone’s radar. They have a bruising and explosive running game, a great defense, an efficient and getting better with each game QB and most of all, they’re a team that can’t wait to get back out there and play together. The Falcons are about 100 times more dangerous and focused then the under-achieving and pathetic Chargers. Norv Turner has ruined another team. Keep the points. Play: Atlanta +1.83 (Risking 2 units).
Kelso Sturgeon - Newsletter
NFL BEST BETS
5 Units - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5) by 14 over Atlanta Falcons - Some things are simply not meant to be - and one of those things must be the San Diego Chargers (4-7) in 2008. This was a team that was one of the co-favorites to win the Super Bowl but has instead turned into one of the most snake-bitten teams in recent memory. Last week, the Chargers lost to Indianapolis 23-20 on a last-second field goal. The week before, it was an 11-10 loss at Pittsburgh. The seven Charger losses this season have come by a total of 28 points, or an average of 4.0 points per game. Still, San Diego comes to play and one can expect the Chargers to fire up again for this one against the surprising Atlanta Falcons (7-4). There is no question San Diego has the more talented team and my figures say they will at last get "lucky" against the Falcons, who are led by a rookie quarterback and that is always a hazard on the road.
4 Units - NEW YORK JETS (-7½) by 13 over Denver Broncos - Some magic things are happening for the New York Jets (8-3) since they acquired veteran quarterback Brett Favre, who set a world of records at Green Bay. New York comes into this game after handing the Tennessee Titans their first loss of the season, 34-13, and just in case one thinks that road victory was a fluke, please note it was New York's fifth straight win and its seventh in its last eight games. The Jets have become a very good football team under the ability and leadership of Favre and they seem to have almost all the edges in this home game against the Denver Broncos (6-5), the most over-rated team in the NFL. If Denver could not muster any offense or defense in last week's 31-10 home loss to the hapless Oakland Raiders, why should one think they can do much against a dramatically better New York team? My money says they can't and won't as the Jets win their sixth in a row and their eight in their last nine games.
3 Units - BUFFALO BILLS (-7) by 13 over San Francisco 49ers - Just call this a best bet play made on the basis of that old tried-and-true West Coast to East Coast rule. For the record, 11 times this season teams from the Pacific time zone have flown east to compete in the Eastern time zone and 11 times they have met defeat. That's 0-11, my friend, and there is no reason to expect any different outcome here. San Francisco (3-8) even has the added disadvantage of traveling cross country for the second straight weekend. Last week they were in Dallas and lost 35-22. Now they face the double whammy of going all the way and history says it will cost them the game. Buffalo (6-5) turned it all loose against a bad Kansas City team and won 54-31. If the Bills can play anywhere remotely as well as that this week, they should own the 49ers - much improved but
simply in a bad spot.
John Fina
Selection: San Francisco/Buffalo Over 43
Reason: Put us down on the San Francisco 49ers/Buffalo Bills Over 43 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. Last weekend, the Buffalo Bills broke out from a four game losing streak that was difficult to stomach after winning 5 of their first 6 games at the beginning of the season. With those four losses, the Bills took a hard hit against their hopes of making it into the playoffs. In 3 of those 4 defeats, they scored less than 20 points. But that breakout game against Kansas City showed that the Bills could be turning it around after walking away with a 54-31 victory. The Bills are hoping that last week’s win put an end to their struggles, and that they will have much of the same this week as they host the 49ers at home in Ralph Wilson Stadium. Against the Chiefs, Bills’ QB Trent Edwards scored several touchdowns and threw a couple of scoring passes. Edwards also made it to the end zone on the ground two times which marked the first in his entire career. It is interesting to note that the points allowed to KC was more than the Bills allowed in any of their four losses this season. Nevertheless, the Buffalo offense put up almost historic numbers, not scoring that many points since 1966 when Buffalo put up 58 points against the Miami Dolphins. This was an amazing accomplishment for Buffalo who is now tied at 3rd with Miami at 6-5 in the AFC East. The New York Jets are 1st at 8-3 ,and New England 2nd at 7-4. While the Bills pushed forward last week, San Francisco suffered a setback against Dallas, losing 35-22 which put them at 3-8 for this season. If the 49ers lose this weekend, their season will become their 6th consecutive losing year. In addition, a loss to the Bills will be their 8th loss in 9 games after San Francisco started the season with a 2-1 record. Under Interim Head Coach Mike Singletary, the 49ers are 1-3 in their last 4 games, but in their last 3 they have averaged 27 ppg. Last Week’s matchup against the Cowboys marked QB Shaun Hills 3rd consecutive start after replacing a benched J.T. O’Sullivan. That was the first time in his career that Hill made it to the 300 yards passing mark. Still, the 49ers ground game was stalled and totaled only 26 yards in that defeat. Since Hill began as starter, he has progressed in his QB role with 906 yards passing, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, even though San Francisco’s record doesn’t reflect that. In the Dallas game, Hill was able to complete 21 of 33 pass attempts for 303 yards. He threw 2 TD passes for a third consecutive week, while throwing only one interception. Before that, Hill had an unblemished passer rating in the first half of the 49ers victory two weeks ago. In the same game, running back Frank Gore gained 106 yards and 2 rushing TDs. But last week’s game against the Cowboys was Gore’s second worst game of the season, gaining only 26 rushing yards on 14 carries. His worst game was against the New York Giants back in October when he ran for only 11 yards. Gore’s season stats include 860 yards rushing, 6 rushing touchdowns and 36 receptions. Last week’s game was an excellent one for WR Isaac Bruce who caught 8 passes for 125 yards. This included an 18 Yard TD catch. WR Bryant Johnson whose stats include 27 receptions and 2 touchdowns, caught 4 passes for 56 yards in that game and TE Vernon Davis with 19 receptions and 2 touchdowns had a 47 yard catch. Deshaun Foster, 49ers backup RB, made a 9 yard scoring catch despite the San Francisco loss. Allen Rosseum, Niners’ return specialist, was injured during the 2nd half of that game and was out for the remainder. The Cowboys managed to sack Hill 4 times in that game contributing to San Francisco’s total of 40 sacks so far this year. That number puts the 49ers at second place for the most sacks allowed in the NFL. During the Bills’ 4 game losing streak, Edwards was picked off 8 times. However he didn’t have any turnovers in the victory against the Chiefs, and was able to complete 24 of 32 passes for 273 yards. This season Edwards has had 2266 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The Kansas City matchup improved Buffalo’s turnover ratio by cutting it in half to -5. That game also gave Edwards a passer rating of 121.0 which is his career high. Also a first for Edwards was his 1st multi TD passing game of the season. WR Lee evens, with 42 receptions and 3 touchdowns on the season, caught 5 passes for 110 yards. Wideout Josh Reed also caught five passes but for only 50 yards, and Derek Schouman, tight end, caught a scoring touchdown pass. RB Marshawn Lynch, with 710 rushing yards, 42 receptions and 8 touchdowns, had 100 yards rushing in their prior loss against Cleveland gained 79 yards against KC while having 1 ground score and catching 5 passes for an additional 25 yards. Bills’ kicker Rian Lindell hit all six extra point drives and completed all 4 field goals. In the Kansas City matchup, the Bills weren’t sacked once even though they have allowed 25 sacks throughout the season. Buffalo is ranked 8th in the league for points scored with an average of 24.8 ppg while averaging 213.2 yards per game with a rank of 13th in the league for the passing attack. The bottom line, we should see a lot of scoring today! Take the San Francisco 49ers/Buffalo Bills Over 43!
Jeff Benton
Say what you want about Cleveland, as it definitely has been a disappointing season by the Lake. But for whatever reason, the Browns have been a strong bet over the last two years. Since Week 2 of last season, they’re 18-8 ATS overall, including 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games at home and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 as an underdog. Just this year, the Browns have covered against the likes of the Steelers (10-6 loss as a six-point ‘dog), Giants (35-14 upset win as a 9-point ‘dog), Redskins (14-11 loss as a seven-point ‘dog), Jaguars (23-17 upset win as a seven-point ‘dog) and Bills (29-27 upset win as a five-point ‘dog).
Today, the Browns catch the streaking Colts, who have won four in a row, including two road wins. However, Indy is 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year, including three straight non-covers in that role. In fact, the Colts, who have covered in consecutive games just once all season long, are playing their fifth road game in the last seven weeks, and I don’t care who you are or who you’re playing, that’s a grueling stretch in the NFL.
Cleveland has shown a lot of fight all season long and gotten up for its biggest opponents, and I expect the same here today. I also expect the Browns to give the Bob Sanders-less Indy defense (136.5 rushing ypg allowed) a healthy dose of RB Jamal Lewis (4.5 yards per carry). Take the points.
4♦ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the points with the Broncos.
The Jets have been unreal of late and are a legit squad but this is not an easy spot at all for the New Yorkers.
Eric Mangini's squad just won those games in New England and Tennessee and now have to get up once again here. No matter how solid the Jetties are afte the amazing off-season moves these guys are still not an elite team and easily can suffer a bit of a letdown today. Plus the winds will be swirling at the Meadowlands and the weather overall should be pretty inclement.
Denver certainly is a flawed team and is only in first place because of their horrific division but Jay Cutler is awesome at times and should be able to cut through the wind today and find Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Of course losing that last game at Mile High Stadium to the lowly Raiders was terrible but these guys the week before went to the Georgia Dome as a similar dog and won that game outright proving this team has an upside and can play with superior teams.
Denver is 3-2 SU and ATS on the road and to get a full touchdown plus in this situation is definitely the right side as I would not be shocked in the least if the extremely due to lose Jets did just that!
Tony Weston
We came through again last night as USC destroyed Notre Dame just like I said the Trojans would.
Just like last night, we’re coming through with another winner today as we’re taking the New York Giants over the Washington Redskins in D.C.
New York comes into today’s game absolutely dominant since losing 35-14 as a 9-point favorite at the Cleveland Browns on Oct. 13. Since losing that game the Giants have gone on a tear, winning six straight games ATS and SU, beating their opponents by an average of 12.1 points per game.
For the season New York is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, including a season-opening win over the Redskins, who the Giants beat SU and ATS 16-7 as a 4 1/2 points favorite.
After that opening loss to the Giants the Redskins went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS their next seven games. But over their last three games the ’Skins have gone 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS. Also, over their last four games at home the Redskins are 0-4 ATS and only 1-3 SU.
Consider, too, that over the last few years the Giants have owned Washington in this series, going 6-3 SU and ATS their last nine meetings, including wins SU and ATS the last two meetings in Washington D.C.
The Giants will get over once again on the Redskins and continue their current winning streak. Take New York on the road today.
3♦ GIANTS
Jake Timlin
Sunday's selection is the N.Y. Giants.
Even minus a shot up Burress I expect the Giants to win and win big on the road today. After all thanks to New York having already beat the Redskins once this year and 4 of the last 5 meetings I don’t see the Giants slipping up today. Not with New York amazing on the road going 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games on the highway. Even harder for the Redskins to overcome will be the Giants dominating rushing attack that will control today’s game for start to finish. Flat out I see the Giants continuing to dominate today as they grab another win and cover against Washington.
Take New York minus the points!
Jim Feist
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS at DETROIT PISTONS
Take: Over
Reason: Typically, when you think of Blazers vs Pistons you think dead under. However, that really hasn't been the case this season. The Blazers (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) average 192 points on the season. ANd, yes, they are still more of an under team than an over club. However, Portland saw six of its first eight games go over the total. Moreover, the Blazers offense has been hitting well, scoring more than 100 points in five of the last seven games. Detroit added its own firepower by acquiring high shooting guard Allen Iverson. But even before his arrival the Pistons started the season with five straight over games and seven of their first nine. Their average totals have also been well into the 190's this season. The Pistons last four opponents have all scored over 96 points. With all that being said, it's a bit hard to figure the total coming on this game in the upper 180's. We feel that there is good value in playing tonight's game over since we fully expected a total into the low to mid 190's.
Dave Cokin
Cornell -2 @ Indiana
Play: Cornell
Tom Crean has inherited an incredible mess at Indiana. He's a great coach and the Hoosiers will rise again down the road, but for now they're terrible. Who would have ever thought the day would come when an Ivy League team would be chalk at Bloomington? In this case, it sure looks justified as the Big Red are the better squad. I'll go for Cornell minus the small spot.
Dennis Macklin
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Prediction: Over
The Bronco defense is statistically one of the worst in the NFL ahead of just the Rams and Lions. The Denver stop unit is ravaged by injuries and the Brets should be able to do whatever they want by land or see. Denver also grabbing RBs out of witness protection to field an offense which can only hope that Cutler can trade points with the original gunslinger to keen Broncs in the game. Putting Jets on 35 means you won't need much from Broncs to send this over 47. Probably closer to 60-70. Play the OVER.
Ben Burns
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints knocked off the Buccaneers back in Week 1. That was at the Superdome though. This afternoon's game comes at Raymond James Stadium where the Bucs are a perfect 5-0. Note that the Bucs won those games by an average of 11 points and that ALL five of those games by a minimum of six points. In addition to having homefield advantage, the Bucs also have the schedule in their favor. That's because Tampa is coming off a Sunday afternoon game vs. the lowly Lions while the Saints are coming off a high profile Monday night clash with the Packers. With the Saints at 1-4 on the road, consider backing the revenge-minded home favorite.
STEVE MERRIL
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Cleveland Browns
The Colts qualify in a 66-105 ATS letdown situation after their underdog win at San Diego last Sunday night. Indianapolis remains an overrated team this season that is lucky to be 7-4 SU as they been an average team on the line of scrimmage gaining 5.4 yards per play, while also allowing 5.4 yppl.
Indianapolis will once again be without their best defensive player as Bob Sanders will not play due to a knee injury. The Colts are also without their starting center as Jeff Saturday is out with a calf injury.
Cleveland has lost quarterback Brady Quinn for the rest of the season, but former starter Derek Anderson has identical numbers. The Browns are a below average team, but they are more than capable of keeping this game close, especially if the weather conditions are poor as the forecast is calling for a steady rain and 15-25 mph winds.
MTi Sports
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens are off a lopsided 36-7 win over the Eagles in which they benefited from five turnovers. This result has pushed this line up to a TD and this is playable. The league as a whole is terrible in this spot. Combined, NFL teams are 0-15 ATS as a road favorite of less than nine points when they least a divisional opponent by at least 21 points the previous week. These favorites are only 6-9 straight up and have failed to cover by an average of 9.9 ppg.
You would never know it by looking at the final score, but the Ravens' offense struggled against the Eagles' defense. Baltimore got 14 first downs - a season low - and they were forced to punt eight times - a season high. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a favorite the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. Also, the league as a whole is 0-9 ATS as a favorite when they are off a double-digit win in which they punted at least eight times.
Baltimore's defensive strength is against the rush and they have trouble living up to the linesmakers' lofty expectations when facing a team that does not rush the ball a lot. In fact, the Ravens are 0-8 ATS (-12.5 ppg) on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. In their only active date this season, Baltimore lost 31-3 in Indianapolis.
Bengals should have enough to hang with the Ravens.
Tony Mathews
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Selection: Minnesota Vikings -3
Tonight the Chicago Bears go up against Minnesota at the Metrodome in a battle for the number one slot. The Vikings and the Bears are at present in a stalemate in the NFC North, and both with mediocre 6-5 records. The Green Bay Packers, who are the defending division champion, are one game behind these two rivals. With little more than a month left in the regular season, this game is of critical importance for Minnesota and Chicago as the winner will be in the favorable position of being the NFC North’s only delegate in the postseason. If the Bears win they will have the greater edge, because it would create a series sweep over Minnesota giving the Bears the tie breaker advantage. When they last met in week 7, the Bears won over the Vikings 48-41. Both teams put up the most points in each of their respective team histories. This game is imperative for the Vikings as well, since so far they are 2-2 in division games and both Green Bay and Chicago are carrying a 3-1 record. What’s more, of these three teams the Vikings have the most brutal schedule ahead. In their final five games, four will be against opponents who currently have winning records. The Vikings do however have a special edge; they will be hosting the Bears at home at the Metrodome where, after suffering a close AFC loss to an impressive Indianapolis, they have been successful in their last 4 consecutive games. Another bonus for the Vikings is their confidence level after coming off a huge victory on the road, beating the hapless Jaguars 30-12 last week. Minnesota benefited from a total of 5 Jacksonville turnovers and turned two of those interceptions into touchdowns within the first 2 minutes of game. The Vikings, ranked 2nd in the NFL in run defense, held Jacksonville to only 35 yards on the ground over the entire game.
Minnesota’s exceptional RB Adrian Peterson with 1180 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns and 16 receptions this season, will lead the Vikings powerful ground attack in a full assault on the Bears this Sunday. In Minnesota’s first 9 games of the season, NFL’s rookie of the year Peterson had six 100 yard showings which included 121 yards against Chicago with two touchdowns. However, over the past two weeks head coach Brad Childress has limited Peterson’s carries, probably to preserve his vigor specifically for this game. Instead, Childress has played a very capable substitute in Chester Taylor who has 247 rushing yards, 29 receptions and 3 touchdowns on the season. In fact Taylor is a more proficient receiver compared to Peterson and is frequently played in passing settings. Both Peterson and Taylor are led by a remarkable OL that includes Pro Bowler guard Steve Hutchinson and center Matt Birk. The Viking OL effectively opens the field for the rushing offense that averages 137.9 yards per game and carries a rank of 5th in the NFL. The aging QB Gus Frerotte with 1,877 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions has done better than Tarvaris Jackson. Since he replaced Jackson as starter, and even though he is somewhat unpredictable, the Viking’s have been 6-3 since the switch. While Frerotte’s main role has been game manager with the offensive focus on Peterson, he still managed, at the age of 37, to gain 298 yards against the Bears in their last meet which was a season high. Wide receiver Bernard Berrian, who is in fact a former Bear, has been integral in his role as WR in providing the critical field stretching presence and Bobby Wade has been important in balancing Minnesota‘s lead receiver. The Viking passing attack is ranked 26th in the league with an average of 183.5 yards per game and Taylor along with TE Visanthe Shiancoe are two of the major components.
The Viking offensive line is not the only source of difficulty for opponents this year. The Minnesota defense has allowed an average of just 70.4 yards rushing per game along with only 3.1 yards per attempt which we saw in action as the Viking defense suffocated the Jaguars in that recent Minnesota victory. The Viking tackle positions are the key to the defensive success with Kevin Williams who boasts 43 tackles and 8.5 sacks, as well as Pat Williams who has 33 tackles and 1 sack. Both teammates have made it to the Pro Bowl the last two years in a row. Chad Greenway is Minnesota’s lead tackler with 85 tackles and 4 sacks. Greenway has had a great season after switching from the LB role in which his performance was weaker. Napoleon Harris is a veteran linebacker that has covered well for middle linebacker E.J. Henderson whose injured foot took him out for the season back in September. Harris was responsible for getting the winning game in motion with a fumble return for a TD on the first play from scrimmage. In pass defense, the Vikings average 228.2 yards per game with only an overall rank of 22nd in the NFL. That less than desirable rank is credited in part to the rivals hesitation to run on the Vikings’ solid front seven. In their last 11 games, the Vikings have surrendered only 9 TDs through the air, allowing the fourth least in the league. The Minnesota secondary has regained its usual strength after regaining Madieu Williams, who took a neck injury in week 9. Williams did not compete in the last contest against the Bears because of that injury. The Vikings boast one of the leagues’ best pass rushers in TE Jared Allen, who makes pressuring the QB a non-issue. Bear’s quarterback Kyle Orton was sacked by Allen twice and forced a fumble in their last matchup. They also have Kevin Williams who, along with Titans’ Albert Haynesworth, holds the leagues’ record for the most sacks among tackles for this year.
Take the Minnesota Vikings -3