Sunday Service Plays

Cajun Sports

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Under 42

Lucas Oil Stadium will be the site of today’s matchup between the host Colts and the visiting Cincinnati Bengals. Surprisingly the Colts may make a run to the playoffs after many had given up on Peyton and company after their slow start. Bengals backers have long since given up on their 1-10-1 team, not even a “next year” out of that group.

The Colts on the other hand have managed to win five games in a row and climb to the top of the AFC Wildcard standings. We must remember that none of the five wins were by more than six points and the last three came against teams that will likely miss the playoffs altogether.

Cincinnati enters today’s contest off another ugly loss, 34 to 3 to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday. It’s possible they have tossed in the towel for the 2008 campaign and are just going through the motions.

The Bengals have been unable to mount any type of consistent offense this season averaging a mere 12.7 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball they haven’t been that bad allowing 25.8 points per game to teams that normally score 24.1 points per game. In fact this is a bad sign for the Colts as they are 0-6 ATS versus teams that allow 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.

We know that Colts head coach Tony Dungy is 71-48 Under after going Under in their last game. Cincinnati after losing their last game by 7 or more points and now face a conference opponent on the road have gone Under at a rate of 34-16-1. If they are installed as a road underdog in that game they have gone 31-14-1 Under. We also see that they are 20-9 Under if that loss came at home and finally if they are a road underdog in that situation they have gone 17-7 Under.

Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is 10-0 Under after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach of Cincinnati. Lewis is 16-7 Under after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of Cincinnati. Lewis is 9-2 Under after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in their last 3 games as the coach of Cincinnati. Colts head coach Tony Dungy is 10-2 Under in home games against AFC North division opponents in all games he has coached since 1992. Dungy is 32-14 Under after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Dungy is 16-4 Under vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

The Colts average 21.4 points per game on offense this season and their defense is only giving up 20.8 points per game. Combine this with Cincinnati’s inept offense along with the technical support and we have a solid case for the “Under” in this contest, so case closed.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Cincinnati / Indianapolis UNDER 42

Strike Point Sports

Take ‘Under’ 37.5 Cleveland at Tennessee

With Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both out, look for the Browns' offense to hit rock bottom with Ken Dorsey. If it weren't bad enough to just be facing the Titans in Nashville, but Cleveland also has to run its team behind the ultimate clipboard holder and former Hurricane. The Titans will control the game on the ground with Chris Johnson and LenDale White, and Cleveland will barely sniff the redzone all game. I don't see more than a 24-6 type of score in a home win for Tennessee.

John Ryan

Atlanta versus New Orleans

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta. AiS shows a 72% probability that Atlanta will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 55% probability of winning the game. NO is projected to have a 92% probability of NOT gaining more than 100 yards rushing in this game. Note that Atlanta is 32-14 ATS when they allow 75 to 100 yards in a game since 1992 and 6-3 ATS over the past 3 seasons. This season they are 1-0 in the same role. Supporting this graded play is a strong reliable system that has gone 72-37 ATS for 66% since 1983. Play against favorites that are average rushing teams gaining 3.5 to 4.5 YPR and is facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing >=4.5 YPR after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. Atlanta is in a very strong role for this game noting they are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. New Orleans has never been a strong finisher to the regular season. They are just 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992. Atlanta is off a huge win at San Diego winning 22-16 and were 6.5 point dogs as well. They gained a solid 141 rushing yards and threw for 207 on just 23 attempts. They also held SD to just 70 rushing yards on 19 attempts. New Orleans is coming off a tough physical loss at Tampa Bay 23-20, but did cover by the hook getting 3.5 points. They allowed TB to rush for 149 yards in 34 attempts.

The Falcons' DBs defensed 15 passes and had three interceptions in Week 10 against the Saints and was a dominant reason they won the game. They will do the same thing again and force the Saints to try and run the ball to set up favorable play action pass plays. in that game though the Falcons secondary did give up 6 plays of 20+ yards. These plays are recorded as explosive plays and the Falcons will reduce that number considerably by apply far more pressure on Brees than in the previous game. The pass rush has greatly improved and features John Abraham, Against Carolina, Davis had 2 sacks and against SD Babineaux had 1.5 sacks. So, the pressure is coming from numerous defenders and a double team of any one of them will open up strong opportunities for the others. The Saints a re a 1 dimensional team the Falcons will not be forced to respect the run early in this game.

The Falcons also will be very successful running the ball with the Thunder and Lightning combo of Norwood and Turner. This is the key to this game and will provide for long time consuming scoring drives, which also keeps Brees on the sidelines watching. TOp will be heavily in favor of the Falcons. Take the Falcons to win and take another step closer to sealing the NFL Wild Card spot.

Bettorsworld

2* RAVENS -5

This is the time of year in the NFL where the cream rises to the top. Teams can have similar records yet at the same time can be so far apart as far as where they are as a team right now. That would appear to be the case between these two teams as the Skins at 7-5 look to be stumbling down the stretch while the Ravens appear to be peaking at just the right time. As a matter of fact, if we break this game down based on what each team has done over the last 7 games, it looks like a complete mismatch. The Ravens side is not without concerns though, which will address further down this page.

Let's first take a look at each teams performance over the last 7 games. The Ravens started the season like many expected. Two wins and only giving up 10 points per game. They then lost 3 in a row, but it's important to note who they lost to. They lost by a field goal in back to back games to two of the NFL's best, the Titans and Steelers. Then they failed to show up against the Colts and were spanked to the tune of 31-3.

But since that Colts loss, they have responded by going 6-1 with their only loss to the Giants. In that 7 game stretch they have outscored their opponents 31-14. They haven't allowed more than 13 points in a game at home all season, outscoring their opponents 24-10 at home. In their last 7 games they have an offensive yards per point number of 11.5 and a defensive yards per point number 18.7. These are some strong numbers at a time of year where it counts the most.

The Redskins on the other hand shocked everyone and started the year 4-1. But since that 4-1 start they are 3-4 and the numbers don't look very good. They have managed to average only 14 points per game over their last 7 games, although their defense has played well giving up on average 17 points per game. Their yards per point numbers over the last 7 games can only be described as horrendous on offense with a 23.3 while their defensive number is an average 15.3. Again, to put these ypp numbers in perspective, the Ravens, over the last 7 games, are scoring one point every 11.5 yards while the Redskins are scoring one point every 23.3 yards. Wow.

The Ravens defense has always been a good one. What makes this team scary right now is that they have an offense to go along with that great defense. It's the complete package. Realize that over the last 7 games the Redskins have scored 17 points or less in 5 of those games. The Ravens on the other hand have scored 27 points or more in 6 of the last 7 games.

We mentioned some concerns we had with the Ravens this week. We have concerns in two areas. One being the strength of opposition over the last 7 games. It's safe to say the Skins have had a tougher schedule over that stretch, but really, not by much. They other concern is what lies ahead. The Ravens have a HUGE game on tap next week with the Steelers. The look ahead angle is more of a factor in college ball than it is in the NFL though. That's not to say that an NFL team can't get caught looking ahead, or can't get caught taking a team lightly. It's just not as likely at this level.

The NFL is a wacky league from a betting standpoint. Often times throughout the year you simply can't break games down by the numbers and gain an edge. There is so much parity that often times, what should happen doesn't. But once you get to December, the cream starts to rise and the talent takes over. From here forward you can break games down based on the facts and have a much better chance at success than say, week 4 or 5.

So with that in mind, we're going to lay the 5 points here with the superior team. The team that's playing exceptionally well defensively that finally has an offense to match. The Team that's dominating opponents at home and is going to be a major threat and a team to watch this year in the playoffs. We're backing them against a Redskins team that's having major problems offensively and is left to relying on an injured Clinton Portis to carry the load.

As a side note, if you're looking for teams to use in teaser wagers this week, consider the Ravens. We just don't see them losing this game. +1 on a teaser looks too good to pass up.

2* RAVENS -5 OVER REDSKINS

LT Profits

Baltimore Ravens -5.5

Without all that much fanfare, the Baltimore Ravens have become one of the best teams in the NFL this year, and we look for them to show the nation just how good they are in this national TV opportunity vs. the Washington Redskins.

This Ravens team bears a striking resemblance to the one that one the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback, as both clubs rely on great defense and a rather conservative, mistake-free offense.

The 2008 version is allowing 15.8 points and 253.1 total yards of offense per game. Furthermore, Baltimore has been downright impenetrable at home, where they are allowing just 10.0 points and a microscopic 194.6 total yards per contest. They are allowing only 63.6 rushing yards per game here, so look for then to take Clinton Portis out of the Washington offense.

As for the offense, rookie quarterback Joe Flacco may not be spectacular, but he has become very reliable and seems to be a perfect fit for this offense. He does have two touchdown passes in four of his last five games, but his best trait has been his uncanny ability to convert third downs, and he is just as effective with his legs as with his arm.

Now the Redskins have struggled vs. mediocre defenses, and they have surpassed 20 points just once in the last seven games. Moreover, that was vs. the winless Detroit Lions, so should that really count? They are 1-6 ATS over this span, covering only vs. the Lions and by just one point at that, winning 25-17 as seven-point chalk.

If Portis struggles as much as we expect vs. the stout Ravens run defense, we could easily see that game getting out of hand early if Jason Campbell is called upon to win this game on his own.

Pick: Ravens -5.5

WUNDERDOG

Dallas at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -3

The Cowboys have to be the biggest bandwagon team of 2008. When they started out the season playing very well, averaging 29.4 ppg in their first five games, everyone crowned them Super Bowl representatives from the NFC. Then they lost to Arizona and Romo went out. They followed that up with an embarrassing loss to St. Louis and all of a sudden, this team was destined to the trash heap. It wasn't just about Romo as everyone was pointing out the flaws in the rest of the team, a team that gave up 30 to Arizona, 34 to St. Louis and 35 to the Giants within a four week span. Well, then Romo came back and the Cowboys have won three straight and are coming off a big public flogging of Seattle on Thanksgiving day. Now the talking heads are once again annointing this team as the one that could beat New York in the NFC. Most are giving them a good shot at winning in Pittsburgh. Not me. Yes, Dallas is a VERY good team with Romo behind center. They are 26-9 with Romo starting. But let's not forget about the other team playing in this game. The Steelers are 41-19 with Ben Roethlisberger taking snaps - a much more impressive record. And, they own the league's top defense, and are playing at home in a big game. This defense held New England to 1-for-13 conversion on third down last week and sacked Matt Cassel - a supposedly mobile QB - five times. This defense has been so good, that it's allowed Pittsburgh to win, even when Big Ben has underproduced. Let's examine that. There were games this season in which Roethlisberger threw for 122, 164, 149, 168, 154, 160 and 172 yards. Pittsburgh's record in those games? They went 5-2! The Cowboys have the 9th ranked defense in yards allowed and the 16th ranked defense in points allowed. Not horrible but certainly not great. And, they may be without their best palyer this weekend - DeMarcus Ware. In contrast, the Steelers defense? Ranked #1 in rushing yards allowed, #1 in passing yards allowed, #1 in total yards allowed and #1 in points allowed. Give me that kind of defense, with a good offense, at home, laying just a field goal.

Ben Burns

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Under

The Jets come off another high-scoring game last week, a 34-17 upset loss vs. Denver. They've been a profitable 'over' team for the past six weeks and most are expecting more fireworks this afternoon. However, as is generally the case, I tend to look at things a little differently than most. That being said, the total is above the key number of 44 and I feel that is generously high.

The Jets, who have seen the 'under' go 13-7 the last 20 times that they played a road game with an over/under line in the 42.5 to 45 range, played poorly on defense in the first half last week. That hasn't been "normal" for them lately though. They're still allowing a respectable 22.3 points per game on the season and an average of just 19 points through their past eight games. Five of their last eight opponents have scored 17 points or less.

The Jets have been particularly stingy against the run, allowing just 82.1 rushing yards per game. That's the fourth best mark in the entire NFL. That strength should serve them well against a 49'ers team which ran the ball 29 times last week, including 24 with Frank Gore.

The Jets only ran the ball 19 times last week. That was largely because they fell behind early though. The 49'ers, who average 21.8 points, typically aren't as explosive offensively as Denver though, so the Jets aren't likely to find themselves in a big early hole. Not surprisingly, Eric Mangini's comments reveal that he wasn't pleased with his team's overall effort vs. the Broncos. "I was really disappointed with the way that we played today. We've established a certain way to play football around here. We've established a certain identity and this wasn't even close to that." That "identity" is of a team that plays tough, hard-hitting defense and which mixes in a healthy dose of the ground game. I expect them to get back to running the ball more frequently this week and also look for a much better effort on defense.

The 49'ers' overall defensive statistics admittedly still aren't that good. However, the coaching change seemingly has given them new confidence, as they've been getting much better on that side of the ball recently. Last week, they gave up 350 total yards but stiffened when necessary, limiting Buffalo to a single field goal in four trips inside the red zone. In their most recent home game, the 49'ers held the Rams to 16 points. Including last week's result, the 49'ers have now seen the 'under' go 13-6-1 the last 20 times that they played a game with an over/under line in the 42.5 to 49 range.

Of course, they didn't have Brett Favre last season. However, I feel that it's still worth mentioning that the Jets saw the 'under' go a perfect 4-0 in Weeks 13 through 17 last season. Those four games averaged a mere 27.75 combined points and none of them finished with more than 42. Looking back to the previous season (2006) and we find that the Jets saw three of their final four regular season games dip below the number. All four games produced 44 combined points or less and they averaged just 33. Overall, the 'under' is 7-1 their last eight December games.

The Jets and 49'ers have faced each other just twice this millennium and both those games finished below the number. Those games had over/under lines of 43 and 44.5 and they both finished with exactly 36 combined points. Don't be surprised if this afternoon's game also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. Consider the Under

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Green Bay -6 vs Houston
Tennessee -13.5 vs Cleveland
Philadelphia +7 vs NY Giants
Arizona -13.5 vs St. Louis
Carolina -3 vs Tampa Bay
Houston/Green Bay Over 47

Single Plays

San Francisco +4 NY Jets
Baltimore -5 vs Washington
Indy/Cincy Under 42.5
Baltimore/Washinton Under 36
Tennessee/Cleveland Under 37.5
St. Louis/Arizona Over 49
Dallas +3 vs Pittsburgh

Wild Bill

Chargers -9 1/2 (5 units) W
Colts -13 1/2 (5 units)
Detroit +9 1/2 (5 units)
Packers -6 (5 units)
Atlanta +3 (5 units)
Jets -4 (5 units)
Over 52 Falcons-Saints (5 units)
Dolphins +1 (5 units)
Arizona -13 (5 units)
Over 48 1/2 Rams-Cardinals (5 units)
Dallas +3 (5 units)
Carolina -3 (5 units)

SportsInsights

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears

After three weeks in a row -- on the road (!!) -- many people are picking the Chicago Bears to give a strong performance at home against the 4-8 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bears are 6-6 but still have playoff aspirations. The Bears were beaten up on the road last week by Minny (34-14) and three weeks ago by Tennessee (21-14). In between these losses, the Bears easily handled a weak St. Louis team 27-3.

Which Bear team will show up this Sunday? The Public is betting on a strong Bear team, with SportsInsights reporting that more than 80% of bets are landing on Chicago. Although Jax sits in last place with their 4-8 record, they are not as weak as St. Louis. Early "Sharp" money has been on the Jaguars -- with the opening line moving from Chicago -7 down to Chicago -6.5 (even with the Public getting almost all of their bets down on Chicago). Our readers know that we like to go with the "Smart money" and "bet against the Public."

Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers

Early in the season, the Green Bay Packers and Brett Favre dominated the NFL news headlines. All looked well for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers -- and the Jets and Favre early in the season. Both teams looked like they were playoff-bound. The Jets still look strong -- but the Packers have been slumping badly lately.

Even so, early-season excitement is hard to extinguish -- and the Public still loves Green Bay. The Public loves GB in this match-up over a mediocre Houston Texan team. Three out of every four bets are landing on the home favorite Packers. Similar to the Jax selection above, SportsInsights' sports marketplace tools show that "smart money" has been taking the Houston Texans. Even though a large majority of bets is coming down on GB, the line has actually decreased from the GB -6.5 opener to the current -6. Some 5.5's are popping up -- so we would advise grabbing Houston +6 while you can.

Houston Texans +6

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers

Before last week's surprising loss to Denver, some people had the Jets and Giants as two of the best teams in the NFL. Many people are shrugging off last week's loss -- and still think the Jets are one of the league's elite teams. Indeed, almost 90% of all bets are taking the visiting Jets as slight favorites over the 49ers. Three-and-a-half points doesn't seem like much, right? Especially for one of the league's best teams against a 4-8 team that is just 2-4 at home! That's what most bettors think.

This game falls into the "Pepto Bismol" category. We say "Bet against the public" and take the "ugliest-looking" game on the board. Take your shot of Pepto and know that "contrarian value" is on your side in the long-run. The overwhelming number of bets on the Jets has pushed the line up to SF +4. We like that extra value on the "key-four" number.

San Francisco 49ers +4

Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Carolina Panthers

Our offshore contacts circled this game because "sharp money" on Carolina is causing the line to increase slightly. The line opened at Carolina -3 -104 at Pinnacle. Even though the majority of bets is taking TB Bucs, the line has actually moved in the other direction. It's actually now MORE expensive (-3 -115) to bet on Carolina even with the majority of the Public betting on TB.

We'll join the "smart money" as usual -- and grab the -3 now -- in case the "big money" drives the line up to -3.5. This should be a great game -- and we'll take Carolina at home in what should be -- a great game.

Carolina -3

Tony Karpinski

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Play: New York Giants -6.5

I'll back the defending champions at home, who have been simply magnificent in continuing '07's brilliant late stretch. Sure, they have to go it without Burress who was trigger happy. NY just finds the way to succeed. Averaging 30-13 ppg edge at home, & on a 15-2 ATS spread run. Philly Thanksgiving Day rout of Arizona, just gives us added value and the Giants are too balanced and get my nod Sunday afternoon.

Nelly

Green Bay – over Houston

The Packers face long odds in the NFC North despite going 13-3 last season for a commanding division win. The Texans are a better team than the record indicates but the defense has not been able to get key stops. The Packers should have an edge in this match-up and can stay alive in the division race. Houston enters this game off a historic Monday night win and there will be a flat spot this week against a desperate Packers team.

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Cleveland Browns

The Browns travel to Tennessee to meet the Titans looking to get back on track following back-to-back losses in when they failed to score a touchdown in either game. the Browns have had their moments in sun this season. Witness all four wins coming SU as underdogs, including the Giants only defeat this year. To their credit, Tennessee rebounded nicely off their initial loss of the season with a wire-to-wire win over Detroit on Thanksgiving day. They do, however, close out the season with a pair of division games and a tilt against Pittsburgh for conference supremacy. Thus today’s game has the makings of a flat spot. The Browns have won and covered the last three meeting in the series and are also 3-0 ATS in this field. Take the points in this overlay.

JIM FEIST

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at DETROIT LIONS
Take: Over

The Vikings (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) have a run-first offense and weak QB play under conservative third-year coach Brad Childress. Fortunately, they face a team that can’t do anything on either side of the ball. They are 4th with 141 yards rushing per game, with 37-year QB Gus Frerotte (12 TDs, 13 INTs) running the offense and RB Adrian Peterson (1,311 yards, 4.7 yards per carry) carrying the load. They are off a huge win over the rival Bears, 34-14 Sunday night. The rush defense is ranked 2nd against the run allowing 73 yds rushing per game, so teams are passing on their 21st-ranked secondary. The defense has struggled of late. They allowed 48 points and 274 yards passing in a 48-41 loss at Chicago, then allowed 389 yards (327 passing), 21 points to Houston. They rallied for a 28-27 win over Green Bay, despite an edge in yards 361-184. Minnesota is 6-2 over the total the last 8 games. The toothless Lions (0-12 SU/4-8 ATS) continue to be a joke, with no defense. Daunte Culpepper helped Detroit get out to a 17-0 lead at home over Tampa Bay, then 3 turnovers and 3 quarters later the Bucs had an easy 38-20 rout. Thanksgiving Day was even more embarrassing, a 47-10 national TV loss to Tennessee. RBs LenDale White and Chris Johnson combined for 231 yards and scored four touchdowns for Tennessee – and guess what the Vikings like to do? The defense has allowed 28, 25, 27, 38, 38 and 47 points the last 6 games – a pattern that will continue. The Vikings will likely run crazy here on the Lions and score pretty much at will. Detroit will get some points and that leads us to the OVER here on Sunday.