Greg Daraban
Atlanta at New Orleans
New Orleans with their backs against the wall at 6-6 hosts Atlanta. Atlanta won the first encounter 34-20. This has tradionally a very high scoring series. Take Atl/NO Over
Lenny Del Genio
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have never missed the playoffs under HC Andy Reid, but they have some work to do this week if they want to keep that streak alive. At 6-5-1 SU, they almost need to win out. That makes them a dangerous team in this spot getting this many points. Giants are due for a bad game, particularly with the Plaxico Burress situation over their heads. Philly is 31-15 ATS as a road dog under Reid, including 10-2 ATS if playing with revenge. Grab the points. Take Philadelphia
Jimmy The Moose
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Tennessee Titans
The 4-8 SU Browns have had a disappointing season and it will get worse today vs. a strong Titans team. Cleveland has lost QB's Quinn and Anderson and this afternoon Ken Dorsey will be the starting QB, his first start in three years. You can bet that the Titans D is going to be all over him this afternoon. The Titans are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS this season. In their last 8 vs. AFC opponents they are 7-1 ATS. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Look for a blowout in this one. Play on the Titans -.
Jack Clayton
Patriots at Seahawks
Pick: Patriots
Seattle going nowhere, Pats are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS off a loss this season and their wideouts are a huge mismatch for the Seahawk secondary. Play the Pats.
RJ Robbins
Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Over 47
Houston has gone OVER 11 out of their last 14 games. GB has gone OVER 16 of their last 21 games. Houston has gone OVER 7 of 8 on the road and GB has gone OVER 9 of 11 at home. OVER 47
John Fisher
Washington Redskins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Washington Redskins +5
This should be a competetive contest with the Ravens being the deserved favorite. Skins offense vs. Ravens defense: Something tells me that the REdskins will finally start going deep in this contest. They will be forced too. Ravens LB and CBs are way to quick for the West Coast offense the Redskins offer. Look for a couple of Randl-El flee-flickers and trickery to offset the Ravens speed. Cooley will be the "HOT" read for most of the game. Portis is really banged up and Betts is an average RB at best. Moss will go deep twice with one a TD. Ravens offense vs. Skins defense: Skins defense is not as stout as Ravens but they are a bend but not break type of unit. Redskins have faced Big Ben, Romo, and Manning so Flaco will not be that tough of a challenge. If Skins with LB Fletcher leading the way can neutralize the Ravens running game this will be a tight contest. Flaco has looked outstanding and has been going deep to WR Clayton because secondary has been cheating to stop the run. I see the Skins being a little more disciplined. This will be a defensive struggle. Team with the TO's will win this game. Hence, a Campbell fumble and int will be the difference despite the Skins outgaining the Ravens. Ravens 20 Skins 16 3 STAR
Platinum Plays
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Both the Texans and Packers are in the midst of disappointing seasons and though neither team has been officially eliminated from the playoffs, the outlook for playing football after week #17 would be officially listed as bleak for both these teams. Each team has bright spots and reasons for an optimistic future and each team has some gaping holes which need to be addressed. The Texans need to shore up their offensive line, address some weaknesses in their defense, decide on a quarteback and win a game on the road. The Packers decline can be traced to an inconsistent running game, a pourous defense and horrendous special teams play. Not even Brett Favre could cover up those deficiencies. However, in the ever changing landscape of the NFL, teams make moves to fix their problematic areas from the previous year only to find new problems arise in areas which didn’t need addressing earlier. Successful teams have general managers and coaches who anticipate and make moves ahead of time instead of reacting to immediate problems. Eventhough the results haven’t been relayed on the field this year, the Packers combination of Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy are more likely to rise back to prominence in the foreseeable future while the Texans will continue to be a team who just can’t get over the hump.
Every year it seems the Texans are a team to be reckoned with in the future and much like the Arizona Cardinals, they’ve come up a bit short. Injuries have played a large part in Houston’s failures but, every team must deal with players going down. For the second year since obtaining QB Matt Schaub to lead the team, he’s missed significant playing time with injuries. In the NFL, one year is acceptable but, two years carries the tag of injury-prone. It will be interesting whom head coach Gary Kubiak throws his support behind in the offseason. The dropoff to backup Sage Rosenfels is minimal and his mobility in the pocket helps him avoid injuries unlike Schaub. Houston has found a running game with rookie Steve Slaton and the injury-ridden Ahman Green will no longer be needed. WR Andre Johnson is one of the best in the NFL and the rest of the receiving corps is decent. The offensive line needs to be solidified. DE Mario Williams is a stud and the Texans don’t look so foolish for choosing him #1 over the likes of Reggie Bush and Vince Young. However, he can’t do it alone and there is very little which cannot be improved on the defensive side of the ball. The Texans have let two games get away from them in the last couple minutes (Vikings & Colts) this year which is the difference from being (7-5) in the playoff hunt to being (5-7) on the outside looking in. When and if the Texans can find a way to win a road game is when this team will be considered a playoff challenger in the AFC.
The Packers fall from last year’s NFC Championship game may be more prolific and more unexpected in a weak NFC North division. The Packers problems have occurred in various areas and have differed from game to game which make their results more difficult to swallow. Their overachievement and good fortune last season had many believing this team was set to contend for another NFC Championship. However, RB Ryan Grant has not run as well as last year and QB Aaron Rodgers is learning as he goes in his first year as the starting quarterback as Brett Favre’s replacement. The defense has been beset by injuries, mental lapses and most of all poor tackling. Another problem area and possibly the big reason for the Packer’s demise has been horrid special teams play. P Derrick Frost (waived on Monday) was a questionable pickup before the regular season and he proved to be a huge bust and big detriment in field position aspect of the game. Poor tackling allowed several long kickoff returns in the Packers last game, a 35-31 home loss to the Carolina Panthers. However, the Packers have many promising young players from which to build around and their return to NFC prominence could be a short turnaround.
The weather this time of year in Green Bay is always iffy and Houston being a warm-weather team will struggle if the conditions are extremely cold. An early line for the game is the Packers - 5½ with the total around 47. Coming off an impressive Monday night win by the Texans over Jacksonville, the early betting will be on Jacksonville and could take the line down closer to 4½. Houston shouldn’t get their first road game of the season at Green Bay but, both defenses will be exploited to the tune of over the 47 point total.
Dwayne Bryant
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The Saints sit at 6-6 knowing they must win out to have any chance of making the playoffs. The Saints are 4-1 SU and ATS at home where they outscore their opponents by nearly 14 points per game this season. As if the motivation of a must-win isn't enough, the Saints will also be looking for revenge for their 34-20 loss at Atlanta last month. The Saints actually outgained Atlanta by 160 yards in that game, but three Drew Brees INTs were too much to overcome. Don't expect three INTs from Brees at home and don't expect Atlanta to be +3 in turnovers this time around. This is also a tough spot in Atlanta's schedule, as they're coming off a game at San Diego and now have to travel all the way back east to play in New Orleans today.
Take the New Orleans Saints -3
BOB BALFE
Ravens -5.5 over Redskins
Baltimore is looking to make the playoffs behind rookie QB Joe Flacco. The Redskins would need a miracle to make the playoffs and the way their offense is playing I don't think its possible. This Baltimore team will be licking their chops against a very banged up Redskins defense. Five of the Redskins front seven on defense are hurt which will help this already efficient Ravens offense. Baltimore does not allow 100 yard per game rushers and Portis has never had success against them. I do not see Jason Campbell taking over this game on the road. Ray Lewis will fire this defense up and the Ravens behind their home fans should get a big win.
Tony Mathews
Matchup: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
Selection: New England Patriots -7
This game could very well be the game that keeps the Patriot’s playoff hopes alive. Last week, New England lost miserably to Pittsburgh and as a result, playoff possibilities will most likely require a SU win from the Patriots at Seattle. However this isn’t going to be an easy game, nor will be their season finale against Buffalo. The Patriot’s have two games in between however that will be far less difficult, playing Oakland and Arizona in the next two weeks.
This season has proven to be one of the worst for the Seahawks at 2-10 SU. The Seattle offense is stalled, with an average of only 18 ppg and 267.3 ypg. Through the air with starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks have only managed 148.8 ypg, giving Seattle a NFL rank of only 31st in the league.
Coming off a SU loss, the Patriots are arguably one of the best teams in the league at a solid 18-1 Straight Up and a 17-2 against the spread in the last 19 times in this role. If their last defeat was by double digits New England becomes both 11-0 SU and ATS, and for the Patriots those last 11 where by 15.4 ppg.
Against a team that has a winning record, the Seahawks have lost 7 consecutive games and the losses came by an average of 17.6 points per game. Expect the same trend to continue this week and for the Patriots to get a blowout win.
Take the New England Patriots -7!
SPORTS ADVISORS
Cincinnati (1-10-1, 4-8 ATS) at Indianapolis (8-4, 5-7 ATS)
The streaking Colts aim for their sixth straight victory when they take on the lowly Bengals at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis scrapped its way past Cleveland 10-6, failing to cover as a five-point road chalk but still posting its fifth consecutive SU win. QB Peyton Manning (15 of 21, 125 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) had dismal day as the Colts had three turnovers and totaled just 215 yards. But Indy allowed only 193 yards and forced two turnovers, both in the fourth quarter, with the first resulting in the game-winning score as Robert Mathis rumbled 37 yards for a fumble-return TD.
Cincinnati’s freefall continued in a 34-3 setback to Baltimore as a seven-point home underdog, giving Cincy a 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven games (1-5-1 SU). The Bengals mustered a paltry 155 total yards in just over 21 minutes time of possession, while allowing a whopping 480 yards and nearly 39 minutes time of possession.
The Colts are on a 4-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the favorite has cashed in five of the last six clashes, including Indy’s 34-16 victory two seasons ago as a 3½-point home favorite.
The Colts are on ATS slides of 1-6 at home and 3-9 in December, but they are on an 8-4 ATS run as a double-digit chalk. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 catching double digits, but the pointspread trends drop off from there, including 1-8 against the AFC and 1-4 after a SU loss.
The over is 5-2 in Indianapolis’ last seven December contests and 5-1 for Cincinnati against winning teams, but the under is on runs of 5-1 for Cincy in December and 9-4-1 for the Bengals against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Jacksonville (4-8, 3-9 ATS) at Chicago (6-6, 5-6-1 ATS)
The Bears, aiming to gain some ground in a quest for a playoff spot, welcome the slumping Jaguars to Soldier Field for a non-conference contest.
Chicago got pounded at Minnesota 34-14 last Sunday night as a five-point road pup, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. QB Kyle Orton (11 of 29, 153 yards) had a miserable start, offsetting two TD passes with three INTs. Chicago, playing its third straight road game, was outgained 378-228 and allowed 178 rushing yards, and the Bears forced just one turnover.
Jacksonville’s plunge continued in a 30-17 loss at Houston as a three-point underdog Monday night for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB David Garrard, who threw just three INTs and had 18 TD passes last season, now has 10 TDs against nine INTs this year. Against the Texans, he was 25 of 35 for 287 yards and a TD, but he threw one INT and lost a fumble, as the Jags lost the turnover battle, 3-1.
The SU winner is now 23-2-1 ATS in the Bears’ last 26 games (10-1-1 ATS this season) and is 8-0 ATS in the Jags’ last eight.
These teams haven’t met since 2004, when Jacksonville scored a 22-3 win giving seven points at home, and the home team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Bears are on ATS declines of 1-4 overall, 2-8 as a home chalk and 3-6 hosting an AFC squad, but they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after a SU loss and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a pointspread setback. The Jaguars are on ATS skids of 1-5 overall, 1-11 on grass and 2-5 outside the AFC South.
The over for Chicago is on streaks of 19-7 at home and 8-3 in December, and the over for Jacksonville is on runs of 15-6-3 overall, 9-1 in December and 12-4-2 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (5-7 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (5-7, 7-5 ATS)
The Packers, rapidly sliding out of the playoff chase, attempt to get back on track in a non-conference game with the Texans at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay’s losing skid hit four with last week’s 35-31 shootout loss to Carolina as a three-point home favorite, the team’s second straight ATS defeat following a 5-0 ATS surge. QB Aaron Rodgers (29 of 45, 298 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid day, and the Pack outgained the Panthers 438-298 while posting nearly 38 minutes time of possession. Green Bay rallied from a 21-10 halftime deficit to take a 31-28 lead with two minutes left, but the Pack then gave up a two-play, 55-yard TD drive to lose it.
Houston topped Jacksonville 30-17 on Monday night as a three-point home chalk, winning for the second straight week and cashing for the third week in a row. Rookie RB Steve Slaton (21 carries, 130 yards, 2 TDs) had a big game, and the Texans won the turnover battle 3-1 to make up for a 388-326 deficit in total yards.
These teams have met just once before, with Green Bay winning 16-13 but Houston covering as a 3½-point home pup in 2004.
Despite failing to cover the last two weeks, the Packers are still on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 7-1 against losing teams, 8-3-1 after a SU loss and 8-3-2 after a non-cover, and they have also cashed in their last six games against AFC foes. The Texans are on a 7-3 ATS stretch against losing teams, but they carry negative pointspread trends of 3-9 on the highway and 6-12-1 against the NFC.
The over for Green Bay is on a plethora of hot streaks, including 22-6-1 overall, 9-2 at Lambeau, 12-3 on grass, 41-17-2 against losing teams and 35-17-1 in December. The over for Houston is on tears of 11-3 overall, 7-1 in roadies, 10-3 in December and 8-3 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Cleveland (4-8, 7-5 ATS) at Tennessee (11-1, 10-2 ATS)
The Titans, needing a victory to clinch the AFC South division and move a step closer to home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, take on the injury-riddled Browns at LP Field.
Tennessee, coming off its first loss, blasted winless Detroit 47-10 on Thanksgiving as an 11-point road favorite, giving the SU winner an 11-1 ATS mark in the Titans’ 12 games this season. QB Kerry Collins (11 of 18 127 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) didn’t need to do much, as running backs Chris Johnson (16 carries, 125 yards, 2 TDs) and Lendale White (23 carries, 106 yards, 2 TDs) led a running attack that netted 292 yards. Tennessee won the turnover battle 3-1 and the time of possession battle by nearly 14 minutes (36:54-23:06).
Cleveland’s near-upset of Indianapolis last Sunday was doomed by late turnovers in a 10-6 loss as a five-point home pup, as the Browns dropped to 1-4 SU in their last five starts (2-3 ATS). QB Derek Anderson (16 of 26, 110 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs), subbing for the injured Brady Quinn, had a fourth-quarter fumble returned for the game-winning TD. Anderson later suffered a left-knee injury, and Ken Dorsey threw an INT with just over a minute left to end Cleveland’s hopes.
Anderson tore his left MCL and like Quinn is done for the year, so Dorsey will start this week.
These franchises last met in 2005, with Cleveland taking a 20-14 home win as a three-point favorite, ending a 6-0 ATS run by the visitor in this rivalry.
Along with their 10-2 ATS mark this season, the Titans are on a bevy of ATS surges, including 6-0 against losing teams, 7-1 against the AFC, 9-2 after a SU win and 7-2 after a spread-cover. The Browns, despite their dismal SU record, are on spread-covering streaks of 18-8-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 7-0 as an underdog, 14-3-1 against winning teams and 10-3-1 after a SU loss.
The over for Tennessee is on upticks of 4-1 at home, 4-1 against losing teams and 6-2-1 in December, but the under for Cleveland is on runs of 13-5 overall, 7-0 in December and 6-2 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Minnesota (7-5, 5-7 ATS) at Detroit (0-12, 4-8 ATS)
The Vikings go after their third consecutive victory while trying to keep the Lions winless in an NFC North meeting at Ford Field.
Minnesota whipped Chicago 34-14 last Sunday Night as a five-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover. QB Gus Frerotte (16 of 25, 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a 99-yard TD pass after Minnesota stuffed the Bears on fourth-and-goal to turn around momentum in the game, and his INT served as the Vikes’ lone turnover. RB Adrian Peterson racked up 131 yards and a TD on 28 carries, and Minnesota forced three turnovers and outgained the Bears 378-228.
Detroit got punished 47-10 by Tennessee on Thanksgiving, failing to cash for the third time in the last four weeks, and the Lions are now 1-19 SU and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games. The Lions were held to a pitiful 154 total yards, and despite getting all their points in the first half, they still trailed 35-10 at the break. QB Daunte Culpepper (13 of 26, 134 yards) had one TD offset by an INT that was returned for a score.
Minnesota is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Detroit, escaping with a 12-10 home win back in October, but never threatening to cover as a 13-point favorite. The Lions won last year’s contest at Ford Field 20-17 in overtime as a three-point chalk.
The Vikings are on ATS slides of 0-5 in division play, 1-7 after a SU win, 2-5 as a road chalk, 2-5 overall on the highway and 6-13 in December. Likewise, the Lions are on pointspread declines of 0-7 at Ford Field, 1-7 as a home pup, 2-7-1 hosting a division opponent and 2-6 against winning teams.
The over for Minnesota is on runs of 5-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 inside the division and 8-3 on field turf, and the over for Detroit is on streaks of 21-8-1 overall, 7-0 in December, 8-1-1 on field turf and 7-1-1 at home. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 clashes at Ford Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (6-5-1, 7-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (11-1, 10-2 ATS)
The red-hot Giants, who have home-field advantage for the playoffs in their sights, face the inconsistent Eagles in an NFC East clash in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York, which can clinch the division title with a win today, coasted past Washington 23-7 as a 3½-point road chalk last week, making the SU winner 22-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 24 games, including 11-1 this season. QB Eli Manning (21 of 34, 305 yards 1 TD, 1 INT) had his first 300-yard passing game since last October and he paced an offense that outgained the Redskins 404-320. New York won the time of possession battle by more than 11 minutes (35:44-24:16).
Philadelphia punished Arizona 48-20 on Thanksgiving as a three-point home favorite to end a three-game winless streak (0-2-1) and an 0-3 ATS slide. QB Donovan McNabb (27 of 39, 260 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) bounced back after getting picked off five times in his previous two games, and RB Brian Westbrook (22 carries, 110 yards) had two TD runs and two TD receptions. The Eagles outgained the Cards 437-260, held the ball nearly twice as long (39:33-20:27) and won the turnover battle, 4-1.
New York is on runs of 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in this rivalry, including a 36-31 road win getting three points last month, with the Giants finishing with a 401-300 edge in total offense, including 219-106 rushing. The underdog has cashed in seven straight meetings in this series, and the visitor is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests.
The Giants are on spread-covering sprees of 45-22-2 overall, 6-1 at home this year (4-0 last four), 5-0 in division play, 9-3 when hosting divisional rivals and 9-3 as a favorite against NFC East foes. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road, but they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NFC East contests.
The over for New York is on streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 7-2-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 at home, and the over for Philadelphia is on stretches of 8-3 on the road and 22-8-1 against winning teams. However, even though last month’s meeting in Philly easily topped the total, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 series clashes at Giants Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Atlanta (8-4 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (6-6, 8-4 ATS)
The Falcons, aiming to firm up their status as a playoff contender, head to the Big Easy for an NFC South showdown with the desperate Saints at the Superdome.
Atlanta crossed the country last week and knocked off San Diego 22-16 as a 6½-point ‘dog, giving the SU winner a 20-1 ATS record in the Falcons’ last 21 games, including a perfect 12-0 ATS mark this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (17 of 23, 207 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) continued to shine in helping Atlanta overcome a 3-0 turnover deficit. RB Michael Turner (31 carries, 120 yards) had another bid day, and Atlanta’s defense allowed just 201 total yards and 25 minutes time of possession.
New Orleans fell short at Tampa Bay 23-20 last Sunday, narrowly covering as a 3½-point pup to cash for the third straight week. QB Drew Brees went 25-for-47 for 296 yards, but he had two TDs offset by three INTs, and the Saints’ 10-point fourth-quarter rally to tie the game was ultimately turned back when the Bucs’ Matt Bryant hit a 37-yard field goal with two minutes left.
These teams have split the cash in their last four clashes, with New Orleans going 3-1 SU, However, the Falcons’ lone win during this four-game stretch came a month ago, when it pounded the Saints 34-20 as a one-point home chalk. Atlanta is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 trips to New Orleans.
The Falcons are on ATS surges of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on field turf and 4-1 against the NFC, but they are on an 0-5 SU and ATS nosedive as an underdog in divisional play and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NFC South contests overall. The Saints are in ATS ruts of 4-9 in home division games and 5-11 after a spread-cover, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home and 6-0 after a SU loss.
The over for New Orleans is on streaks of 12-4-1 overall, 9-1-1 at home, 6-0 in December and 11-1-1 on field turf, but the under for Atlanta is on runs of 5-2 overall and 36-15-1 on the road. Additionally, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings between these rivals in the Superdome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
N.Y. Jets (8-4, 7-5 ATS) at San Francisco (4-8, 5-7 ATS)
The Jets will look to get back on track when they make the cross-country trek to Monster Park for a non-conference contest with the 49ers.
New York had its five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) end with a thud in last week’s 34-17 loss to Denver as a healthy 7½-point home chalk, QB Brett Favre (23 of 43, 247 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a mediocre outing, and RB Thomas Jones’ big day (16 carries, 138 yards, 2 TDs) went for naught as the Jets defense got carved up for 357 yards passing and two TDs by Denver QB Jay Cutler.
San Francisco is coming off a stunning 10-3 win at Buffalo as a 6½-point road pup, becoming the first West Coast team to win SU on the East Coast this season. QB Shaun Hill (14 of 23, 161 yards, 1 TD) was serviceable enough as the 49ers, who are 3-1 ATS in their last four, won a yawner despite getting outgained 350-195 and each team having just one turnover. The 49ers defense yielded just three points on the Bills’ four trips to the red zone.
The SU winner is now 22-1 ATS in the Niners’ last 23 games (11-1 ATS this year),
These teams have split two meetingse this decade, with San Fran going 2-0 ATS.
The Jets are on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 on the road, 6-2 in December, 5-2 after a non-cover, 10-6-1 as a road chalk and 6-2 as a non-conference favorite. Despite their recent ATS uptick, the 49ers remain in pointspread funks of 5-11 at home, 2-6 as a home ‘dog, 3-8 after a spread-cover, 2-5 after a SU win and 3-7 against winning teams.
For New York, the over is on stretches of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0 on grass and 5-1-1 after a loss of more than 14 points, and the over for San Francisco is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on grass and 4-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (7-5, 5-7 ATS) vs. Buffalo (6-6, 5-7 ATS) (at Toronto
The Dolphins aim to keep pace in the AFC East when they travel north of the border to the Rogers Centre to take on the Bills, who are the designated home team in the first-ever regular-season game played in Canada
Miami held off St. Louis 16-12 as a seven-point road favorite, winning for the fifth time in six weeks but failing to cover for the fourth week in a row. Chad Pennington (13 of 23, 166 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) avoided any turnovers but didn’t do much else in a game featuring three field goals from each team. The Dolphins finished with a 3-1 edge in the turnover battle.
Buffalo had its playoff hopes diminished in a 10-3 upset loss to San Francisco as a 6½-point home chalk. RB Marshawn Lynch (16 carries, 134 yards) had a huge day, but the Bills failed to find the end zone, with four red-zone drives netting just a field goal. QB Trent Edwards (10 of 21, 112 yards) left after the first half with a groin injury, and J.P. Losman (11 of 17, 93 yards) finished out the game. Buffalo lost despite outgaining the Niners 350-195.
Buffalo is on a 7-1-1 ATS run (7-2 SU) against the Dolphins, though Miami won 25-16 laying one point at home in October. The favorite is on a 6-2-1 ATS surge in this series.
The Dolphins are on ATS slides of 6-21-2 in AFC East games and 5-14 in division roadies, and the Bills are also struggling at the betting window, with negative ATS streaks of 1-5 overall, 0-6 against winning teams and 1-4 inside the division.
The under for Miami is on streaks of 5-1 overall and 9-2 after a SU win, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings between these two, but the over is 13-5 in Buffalo’s last 18 games in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kansas City (2-10, 6-6 ATS) at Denver (7-5, 5-7 ATS)
The Broncos look to move a step closer to the AFC West title when they meet the Chiefs in a battle between hated division rivals at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver shocked the Jets 34-17 as a 7½-point road pup, bouncing back from a stunning 21-point home loss to the Raiders to move to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games, with all three wins and covers coming on the road. QB Jay Cutler (27 of 43, 357 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) led an offense that racked up 484 total yards, with rookie RB Peyton Hillis rushing for 129 yards and a TD. The Broncos outgained New York by 101 yards and won the turnover battle, 2-1.
Kansas City beat Oakland 20-13 as a three-point road underdog last week to end a seven-game losing streak (3-4 ATS) that dated back to its home upset of Denver in Week 3. QB Tyler Thigpen (15 of 22, 162 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) led the Chiefs to 10 fourth-quarter points, and RB Larry Johnson (24 carries, 92 yards, 1 TD) had a fair outing. K.C. also benefited from a 67-yard fumble-return TD by Maurice Leggett on Oakland’s botched fake field-goal attempt.
Kansas City has cashed in four of the last six contests in this rivalry, including a 33-19 victory catching 9½ points in September. The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 series clashes, and Denver is on a 6-1 ATS run in the last seven meetings at Invesco.
The Broncos, despite their current pointspread uptick, remain on ATS freefalls of 10-25-1 overall, 5-17-1 at home, 2-10-1 against losing teams and 3-12-1 in division play. The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against winning teams, but they carry positive ATS trends of 10-3 on the highway and 5-2 when visiting AFC West foes..
The over for Denver is on multiple runs, including 9-2 in the AFC West, 7-2-1 in December, 20-7-1 on grass and 10-4 against losing teams, and the over for Kansas City is on runs of 5-2 on the road and 22-10 in December. Finally, the total has gone high in 11 of the past 14 meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (2-10, 4-8 ATS) at Arizona (7-5 SU and ATS)
The Cardinals will try to shake a two-game SU and ATS losing streak and wrap up their first-ever NFC West title when they face the lowly Rams at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Arizona returns from a 10-day break after tumbling 48-20 at Philadelphia as a three-point road ‘dog on Thanksgiving night. QB Kurt Warner (21 of 39, 235 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs) was playing from behind much of the way, as the Cards trailed 21-0 midway through the second quarter, and Arizona finished with just 260 total yards and four turnovers, while the Eagles racked up 437 yards and had just one turnover.
St. Louis lost to Miami 16-12 for its sixth straight loss, but the Rams halted a four-game ATS slide by covering as a seven-point home pup. QB Marc Bulger (16 of 35, 149 yards, 0 TDs) had three INTs for all of St. Louis’ turnovers, including a pick in the final minute of the game to seal the win, and the Rams forced just one Miami miscue.
Arizona is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the last four meetings in this rivalry and is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 battles, including a 34-13 rout as a three-point road favorite on Nov. 2. The underdog is on an 8-2 ATS roll, and the visitor has cashed in five of the last seven battles.
The Cardinals sport ATS streaks of 12-5 after a SU loss and 4-1 versus the NFC West, while the Rams carry nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 0-5 inside the division, 2-8 against the NFC, 5-9-1 on the road, 20-44-1 after a SU loss and 6-13 in December.
The over for Arizona is on tears of 39-19 overall, 7-0 at home, 20-8 in December and 9-4 in division games, and the over for St. Louis is on runs of 6-1 in December and 11-5 after a SU loss. Also, the over is 3-1 in the last four series meetings, the lone “under” coming in last month’s clash in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
Dallas (8-4, 6-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-6 ATS)
The Cowboys, in need of a victory to keep pace in the wild-card chase, travel to Heinz Field for a non-conference clash with the first-place Steelers.
Dallas drilled Seattle 34-9 on Thanksgiving as an 11½-point favorite to win and cover for the third straight week. QB Tony Romo (22 of 34, 331 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a huge day as the Cowboys finished with a 447-322 advantage in total yards, and the Cowboys defense yielded just three field goals while sacking Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck seven times.
Pittsburgh routed New England 33-10 as a one-point road pup for its third straight win and second consecutive cover. The Steelers’ top-ranked defense was the big difference yet again, bagging five turnovers, including forcing Pats QB Matt Cassel into two INTs and two lost fumbles while also racking up five sacks. Pittsburgh shut out New England in the second half.
These former Super Bowl rivals have met just once this decade in regular-season play, with Pittsburgh taking a 24-20 road victory getting three points in the most recent battle in 2004.
The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall and 6-3 against the AFC, but they’ve failed to cash in six straight December contests. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in December and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with NFC teams, but they are on pointspread slides of 1-4 at home, 2-6 after a spread-cover and 3-7 as a home chalk.
The over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 11-5 overall, 37-14-2 at Heinz Field and 5-1 after a SU win, and the over for Dallas is on stretches of 16-7-2 on the highway, 4-1 after a SU win and 16-5-2 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (7-5, 6-6 ATS) at Seattle (2-10, 4-7-1 ATS)
The Patriots, currently on the outside looking in for a playoff spot, make the long road trip to the Pacific Northwest to face the struggling Seahawks at Qwest Field.
New England got pounded by Pittsburgh 33-10 giving one point at home last Sunday and has now alternated SU wins and losses over its last six games. After consecutive 400-yard passing games, Pats QB Matt Cassel (19 of 39, 169 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) took a beating, getting sacked five times and losing a pair of second-half fumbles in committing four of the Patriots’ five turnovers.
Seattle traveled to Dallas on Thanksgiving and got drilled 34-9 as an 11½-point road underdog, its fifth consecutive SU setback (1-3-1 ATS). QB Matt Hasselbeck (22 of 38, 287 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) got sacked seven times, and the Seahawks netted just three field goals on the day despite three trips to the red zone.
These squads last met in 2004, when New England won 30-20 as a 3½-point home chalk.
The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against losing teams, but the pointspread trends go upward from there, including 35-16-1 on the highway, 5-0 after a non-cover, 9-2-1 against the NFC, 19-7-1 after a SU loss and 20-7 as a road favorite. The Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover, but otherwise are on ATS dives of 1-5-1 against winning teams, 1-4 at home and 3-6 as a home underdog.
The under for New England is on streaks of 5-1 against losing teams, 8-3-2 on field turf and 9-4-1 after a SU loss, and the under for Seattle is on runs of 5-0 overall, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
Washington (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) at Baltimore (8-4, 9-3 ATS)
Two regional rivals hoping to keep playoff berths in their sights square off when the Redskins make the quick trip to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens in a non-conference contest.
Washington tumbled to the Giants 23-7 as a 3½-point home ‘dog a week ago, falling to 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games. QB Jason Campbell chucked the ball 38 times but got little return for his effort, with 23 completions for 232 yards with no TDs and one INT. The Redskins lost the turnover battle 2-1 and had more than an 11-minute deficit in time of possession (35:44-24:16), while getting outgained 404-320.
Baltimore pummeled Cincinnati 34-3 as a seven-point road chalk to win and cash for the second week in a row and the sixth time in its last seven games. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (19 of 29, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and the Ravens defense held the Bengals to just 155 total yards, helping Baltimore nearly double Cincinnati in time of possession (38:58-21:02).
The SU winner is 17-1-1 ATS in Washington’s last 19 games (10-1-1 ATS this season) and 21-2 ATS in Baltimore’s last 23 outings (11-1 ATS this season).
Baltimore and Washington have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. The Ravens netted the most recent win, 17-10 as a one-point road chalk in 2004.
The Redskins are on ATS dips of 1-5-1 overall, 0-7-1 against the AFC and 2-5-1 after a SU loss, though they have gone 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Conversely, the Ravens are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 at home, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 23-6 as a home chalk.
The under for Washington is on rolls of 7-0-1 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 on grass. On the flip side, the over Baltimore is on tears of 6-0-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 4-1 in December and 19-7-3 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
Jeff Benton
Yet another freebie winner Saturday on UCLA, which covered easily against USC. I'm now 15-5 with free plays over the last 20 days and 8-2 over the last 10 days! For Sunday’s complimentary winner in the NFL, we’ll take the big points with the Chiefs at Denver.
This comes down to one basic point: You cannot trust the Broncos at home and you cannot trust the Broncos to cover as a favorite. Gone are the days when a trip to Mile High was an automatic “L,” as Denver not only has lost three straight home games to the likes of the Raiders (31-10), Dolphins (26-17) and Jaguars (24-17), but if you count the infamous Ed Hochuli Game against the Charges as a non-cover, the Broncos are 0-6 ATS at home this year.
In addition, they’re 0-7 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, including a 33-19 outright loss at Kansas City as a 9½-point road chalk back in Week 4. And if you go back to 2006, Denver is 5-17-1 ATS at home and 3-15 ATS as a home chalk! Like I said: completely untrustworthy.
Yes, Denver is coming off a very impressive 34-17 road rout of the previously red-hot Jets, but therein also lies another problem: The Broncos have had trouble putting together back-to-back consistent efforts, hence their 1-4 ATS mark in their last five games after a SU win (including that unforgivable 21-point loss to the pathetic Raiders two weeks ago).
As for the Chiefs, they’re still a bottom five NFL team without question, but there’s also no denying they’re playing much better. They’ve cashed in four of their last six games overall, including three straight road games, two of those against division foes San Diego (20-19 loss as a 14½-point underdog) and Oakland (20-13 win last week as a three-point pup). K.C. is getting much-improved play out of young QB Tyler Thigpen and the offense (23.5 ppg last six games), which runs up against a Denver D that’s still giving up 26.6 points and 381 total yards per game overall and 27.3 points and 390 yards per game at home.
The Chiefs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games, and the underdog has cashed in nine of Denver’s last 10 games overall, and with the generous points we’re getting here, I see no reason why both trends won’t continue today.
4♦ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Lions at home.
To back Detroit right now is like playing Russian Roulette and that is why I can't make Rod Marinelli's abysmal squad a real pay pick but I'll still make them a very small play right here.
No doubt Detroit is a disgusting mess that was absolutely horrific on Thanksgiving Day in completely embarassing themselves against the Titans. The Lions looked like a JV Junior High team combined with the Bad News Bears in that ugly ugly defeat. The blowout was not even indicative of how bad it really was. But with that said Minnesota is not a blowout team as Gus Frerotte will not just fling the ball all over the field and when all is said and done I can see the Lions somewhat compete today.
Obviously the run defense of Detroit is awful and that is not a good thing against a beast in Adrian peterson but if that unit can man up a little and keep the clock going and shorten the game a bit I can see the Vikings kept to around 24-27 points making this number a tad high.
0-16 is still hard to fathom and this seriously may be the easiest of the remaining games to win for Detroit. Plus Daunte Culpepper, no matter how inept he may be, will be jacked up here to get back at his former team. Let's also remember a few months ago how the Lions actually outplayed the Vikings in Minnesota in that late two point defeat. Dan Orlovsky running out of the end zone in that safety proved to be the difference.
I realize the Lions are a joke but 0-16 truly should not happen and this is not a terrible spot to back this home dog no matter how horrific they have been. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hold my breath a bit for sure but I'll also scoop up the 10 or so.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Minnesota -10 at DETROIT
The reality of an 0-16 season is staring smack, dab in the face of the Lions, and we doubt highly they are going to be able to do anything about it at home today against the surging Vikings.
Minnesota will have the services of both Pat, and Kevin Williams to anchor the defense at least for today, but the bigger key to this game is the fact Detroit cannot stop the run if their life depended on it, and the Vikings have one of the best in the league at running the ball in Adrian Peterson. Chester Taylor is not too shabby either, and with Tennessee gashing the Lions for nearly 300 yards on Turkey day, Minnesota should easily control this game.
The Vikings have gone 6-2 straight up their last 8 games, and they have covered in 2 of their last 3 when laying points.
Detroit meanwhile, is 0-6 against the spread at home this year, and they have won just once in the last 13 series meetings with the Norsemen.
The Vikings are now in control in the NFC North, and while they may slip up in the final three games, they will not slip up today.
Play on Minny!
4♦ MINNESOTA