Bettorsworld
3* Titans -3 over Texans
I had a conversation with someone earlier this week and we talked about the Titans vs. Texans game. I mentioned that I was surprised the Titans were only a field goal favorite over Houston. My fellow prognosticator said, "yeah, but the Texans are playing well right now". So, I had to dig a little deeper. In doing so, I noticed the Texans have won 3 in a row. Hey, congrats to the Texans or that. They sat at 3-7 a few weeks ago and are now 6-7. Many had mentioned the Texans as a team to watch this year. You'd have to say the season as a whole has been a big disappointment for them but they have put three in a row together and are on a little roll.
But folks, the difference between these two teams is like night and day. You first have to look at who the Texans have beat during this 3 game winning streak. The Packers, Jags and Browns. That's the 5-8 Packers, the 4-9 Browns and the 4-9 Jags. Instead of looking at the last 3 games, take a look at what the Texans have done against "good" teams this year. Playoff teams. a 38-17 loss to the Steelers. 31-12 loss to these Titans. A 41-13 loss to the Ravens. They did have two shoot out losses to the Colts but it's not as if the Colts are a defensive powerhouse. The Texans other wins this year came against the Lions and Bengals.
You don't have to use any fancy formulas or look at any special stats to determine that the Titans are for real. Just look at their season results thus far. You don't go 11-1 in the NFL by accident. Yes, people are going to point to the strength of schedule for the Titans so far and that angle does have some credibility. They haven't exactly had it tough. There are no signature wins against the NFL's elite. Actually, scratch that last sentence. They beat the Ravens. But other than the game they gave away to the Jets, they disposed of everyone they faced including the Ravens and Colts. They played many of the same teams these Texans played with much different results.
Look at any eventual conference champions records down the stretch over the years and you'll find one common denominator. Dominating wins. Dominating wins and lots of covers along the way. The Texans have given up 28 points or more 8 times this year. The Titans gave up 34 to the Jets and 21 to the Colts. Every other game saw them give up 17 points or less. Usually less. The Titans are a team that will contend for the chance to go to the Super Bowl this year and will likely play in the AFC Championship game. The Texans are a 6-7 team that happened to win their last three games all against losing teams. Frankly, the Texans are not a very good football team while the Titans are very good. It's really that simple.
We have no problem trusting the Titans with our money for 60 minutes. You can listen to all the talk about trap lines, letdowns, the Texans being hot, and so on. All that talk will do is talk you out of solid investments. This game is good vs. bad. Playoff vs. non playoff. Defense against defenseless. The Titans have beaten the Texans by 3 or more in 6 of the last 7 times they have played. So why not one more time in the year that finds the Titans as one of the best in the NFL? Also note that the Titans have won 15 of their last 16 games. They locked up a first round bye last week but the job still isn't complete. They are looking for home field advantage throughout the playoffs and are coming off a less than stellar performance against the Browns last week in a game in which they won regardless despite uncharacteristic penalties and giveaways. Expect a focused effort this week. The Titans can have all the letdowns they want AFTER they clinch home field throughout. Quite frankly, if they can't win here in Houston with so much to gain, they don't deserve home field throughout.
3* TITANS -3 OVER TEXANS
Strike Point Sports
Take Buffalo +7 over New York Jets
Both AFC East teams are playing their worst football of the season coming into this match-up, and neither offense is clicking enough to warrant laying a touchdown here. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings, and now that they are pretty much off the radar, why can't they pick up with their winning. I mean, Buffalo started the season strong when the hype meter was fairly low. So with everyone off their bandwagon, look for the Bills to keep the Jets down against struggling teams. .
Jay Todd
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Play Under 41
Conditions are likely to be cold and snowy for this one. With that being said, look for both teams to run the ball early and often, as Buffalo does that more than enough without snow. Both teams enter this game coming off losses in which they really struggled to move the football. Expect a very sloppy and close game in this one.
The Bills have scored just three points in each of their last two games. Trent Edwards is out due to injury, leaving things to J.P. Losman. Losman completed just 48% of his passes for 123 yards and an interception. The Jets allow just 83 rushing yards per game, so expect them to force Buffalo to have to open up the passing game in these bad weather conditions.
The Jets are averaging just 15.5 in their last two games, both of which were losses. Buffalo is allowing a modest 18 points per game at home this season. Couple that strong defense with the weather and you have the making for a very low-scoring game.
Both teams rely on running the football and playing sound defense. Expect a very low scoring game. Play the UNDER 41 between the Jets and Bills.
Alex Smart
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Over 44.5
Indianapolis enters into this game on a 6 game winning streak,behind the star and catalyst of the team QB Peyton Manning. The super star pivot has thrown 12 TDs during that run, against only 3 interceptions, consistently stretching the field by hitting the big four of WR Reggie Wayne, WR Marvin Harrison, TE Dallas Clark and WR Anthony Gonzalez. When Manning is on his game, the Colts always seem as a whole to follow his lead and play above a lot of the pundits expectations on both sides of the ball and I am betting nothing changes today.
This contest against the desperate and winless Detroit Lions is not a game that that Manning and Colts will over look as they need a victory to stay in the hunt for wild card spot, and will keep scoring even if they are up late in the game, as they leaving nothing to chance. Detroit played well last week, against the visiting Minnesota Vikings almost snapping their ugly winless streak. As usual the toothless Lions found a new way to lose, and are now an extremely disheartened side, that despite of having some fight left in them, could easily be mentally broken in this spot. If the Colts get up early, look for the flood gates to open up for score after unanswered score.
Look for and expect the Colts to finally get their running game going against one of worst stop units in the league, and to use play action as the game progresses to blow up a very inconsistent secondary . On other side of the ball I expect the Colts to stack the box and stop the Lions ground game, which will put the pressure on veteran pivot Duante Culpepper to convert a lot of long yardage situations. The old guy is capable of doing this and putting some points in the board in a back door situation. This scenario will see both teams combine to put a boatload full of points on the board.
Before this contest ends I expect a lot of the Lions players to get caught day dreaming of off season golf and beach vacations, and for us to cash a Totals ticket
Final notes & Key Trends: The Lions have gone OVER in 7 straight non conference games with a combined average of 53.7 PPG going on the score board.
Projected score: Indianapolis Colts 37 Detroit Lions 20 – PLAY OVER
Mike Anthony
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play:Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
The Buccaneers have given the Falcons trouble recently, winning the past three games by a combined margin of 92-19. This includes an easy 24-9 victory in Week 2. The Buccaneers held Michael Turner to 42 yards rushing on 14 carries during that win. On Monday TB gave up 299 yards rushing to the Panthers RB's. That does not bode well for Turner and the Falcons. Gruden was pissed and will have his troops ready this week! Atlanta has failed to cover 13 of its last 17 versus the Buccaneers and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday.
John Martin
1 Unit on Packers/Jaguars O 45
These are two teams with nothing to play for, so look for each team to open up the playbook and put plenty of points on the board to get the OVER. Green Bay’s defense has fallen off the face of the earth. Injuries have hurt their front 7, but the Packers are giving up yardage and points in bunches. In their last 3 games, the Pack have given up an average of 36.3 points/game and 422 yards of Total Offense/game. Jacksonville hasn’t been much better in their last 3 games, giving up 27.7 points/game. The Jaguars have turned the ball over 9 times in those 3 games, leading to easy scores for their opponents. Green Bay is 21-8 OVER in all games over the last 2 seasons. The Packers are 10-2 OVER in road games over the last 2 seasons. Jacksonville is 8-1 OVER in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons. Jacksonville is 6-0 OVER off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with the OVER 45 points.
Info Plays
3* on Atlanta Falcons -3
Reasons why the Falcons cover the spread Sunday:
1.) Revenge factor. Atlanta lost to the Bucs in one of their worst performances of the season 24-9 down in Tampa on September 14th. The Falcons will be extra motivated for this game, if a close loss down in New Orleans last week was not enough. Atlanta has been the surprise team of the league this year, but they are no longer a surprise, the Falcons are the real deal.
2.) Atlanta is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season. The home dominance in the NFC South has been absolutely incredible this season, unlike anything we have seen before. The Panthers are undefeated at home, the Bucs are undefeated when playing in Tampa, and the Saints are 5-1 at home along with the Falcons. None of these teams have lost a home game against a division opponent. This is simply a trend we’re not going to bet against, but we will definitely take sides with it this week.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play On - Any team (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This is a 35-8 ATS System hitting 81.4% over the last 10 seasons. This system just shows how hard it is to beat a team twice in the same season, especially in the NFC South where home teams are undefeated in division play. Tampa is on a short week after a bad loss to the Carolina Panthers last week on Monday Night Football. This will also play a factor as Atlanta is the fresher team. Bet the Falcons at home.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Oakland Raiders +7
The Oakland Raiders are not playing for much, but they are hosting a New England team that is beat up and playing without several key defensive players that you could almost make up a Pro Bowl team with. The Patriots will be playing without Adalius Thomas, Teddy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Jason Webster, Terrance Wheatley and Shawn Crable to name a few on the defensive side of the ball. Then there’s Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren who are each listed as questionable. It’s no wonder the Patriots had to come from behind to beat the Seahawks last week, and lost to the Steelers 33-10 the previous week. Yes, Matt Cassel is getting praised from everyone across the league, but he is also spending a lot of time on his back. Cassel has been sacked 42 times this season, the most of any quarterback in the league. This isn’t the same offensive line as it was under Tom Brady. Maybe they just don’t try as hard for Cassel as they did Brady, or they are just getting too old, but either way this offensive line is getting beaten badly up front. Teams can come with blitzes all game because opposing defenses don’t have to worry about the Patriots running the ball as their run-game has been nearly non-existent since Laurence Maroney went down. New England may be the better team despite all these injuries, but they are not a touchdown better than the Raiders here. New England is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) in the second half of the season since 1992. Oakland hangs tough Sunday, perhaps pulling off the win. Take the Raiders and the points.
Wunderdog
New York Giants at Dallas
Pick: New York Giants +3
The 11-2 Giants will take the field on Sunday as an underdog for just the third time this season. The first two times, New York won the games outright as they seem to relish the role of the underdog, playing the "no respect" card to a tee. They have now won seven of their last eight games outright when listed as an underdog, including six in a row! They are also a perfect 8-0 ATS and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a dog. Eli Mnning is quietly having a very good year. While you hear more about the Giants three-headed running attack, Manning has put up 20 TD passes to just 8 INTs while throwing for over 2,700 yards. The Cowboys secondary looks as though it will be without Pacman Jones the rest of the year, and is otherwise banged up. It's hard to imagine Manning won't put up good numbers in this one. Their is also the video from last week showing Owens going off at the offensive coordinator of Dallas. Controversy and turmoil is brewing in the Dallas lockeroom and that is never a good thing. With Marion Barber not playing or playing hurt against the Giants 5th ranked rushing defense, Tony Romo is going to be under pressure the entire game, as the Cowboys could find themselves facing unfavorable 3rd down situations. That doesn't bode well for Romo. While he's been a top QB since he took over the starting role in Dallas, thus far he has shown the inability to get it done in big games. His "showtime" numbers tell a story. In games played from December 1st on (the money games in the NFL), Romo has led the Cowboys to a 4-9 SU record and a futile 1-9-2 ATS mark. As Romo goes, so do the Cowboys. We have one team here that has dominated as an underdog, and another that has shown the inability to get the money in the big game. I'll back the G-men here.
SportsInsights
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Atlanta Falcons
After Tampa Bay's 15 point loss to Carolina in a battle for first place just a few days ago -- on Monday Night Football -- it looks like we will be able to grab some value on Tampa Bay this week. Sports fans will remember the loss, even though the game was up for grabs entering the fourth quarter. This looks like one of those opportunities to "buy at a low" -- and indeed it is... The Public is taking Atlanta in this divisional match-up at a rate of almost two out of every three bets.
Atlanta is a much-improved team at 8-5 and is just one game behind TB in the NFC South. Even though Atlanta is much improved recently, Tampa Bay is a battle-hardened playoff team. Let's "bet against the Public" and grab TB plus the points.
Tampa Bay Bucs +3
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
This looks like the easiest game of the week to play. Tennessee has the best record in the NFL with just one loss all season. Houston has a 6-7 record and has given up more points than they have scored. Tennessee is giving just three points to the Houston Texans. Looks like an easy game to cash, right?
The "Smart money" doesn't think so, and neither do we. One of our Offshore contacts told us about "early sharps on Houston moving the line lower." The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 at some books -- but even with three out of four bets landing on the Titans, the line has moved to Tennessee -3. We'll go with the "Smart money" and go with one of the ugliest games on the board. Value is often where you least expect it. Take the home dog -- and have your antacid nearby.
Houston Texans +3
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
In this battle of first-place teams, it is surprising to see the betting so hugely one-sided -- but that's exactly what we are seeing. A huge number of bets (almost 90%!) is landing on the Arizona Cardinals. The Public figures that the home team Cardinals are giving up "just three points" -- but in this game, those three points can mean the difference between winning and losing "against the spread." In addition, because the Public is pounding their hard-earned money down on the Cardinals, the "line and vig combo" is moving just a bit, adding some more value to this play.
This game has playoff implications and should be close. We'll "bet against the Public" and take the visiting Vikings plus the field goal.
Minnesota Vikings +3
Totals 4 U
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Tampa Bay (9-4) The Buccaneers simply run over all night long by the Panthers Monday night by the Panthers, yielding 299 yards on the ground at 8.1 yards per carry with 4 rushing touchdowns, in a 23-38 loss that dropped them 1 game back in the NFC South. This from a team that had allowed a grand total of 1145 rush yards and only a single rush TD through their first 12 contests! Part of the debacle can be written off to injury with 6’2” 296 LDT Jovan Haye (27 T) sidelined for the game and fellow starter 6’2” 285 RDT Chris Hovan (36 T, S) not able to complete the game due to a bum knee but the truth is that sometimes when you face good teams in this league, you get knocked on your ass and we fully expect Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffin’s squad to respond well. Age late in the season is a factor for the Tampa stoppers but the experience here may also help them regroup quickly. Star players LDE Kevin Carter (34 T, 4 S), WLB Derrick Brooks (56 T, INT), and RCB Rhode Barber (58 T, 2 S, 3 INT) have nearly 40 combined years in the pro pads and will have all three ranks breathing fire again come Sunday. Getting more pressure on the pocket this week (just 1 sack against Carolina) will be critical – not easy against the Falcons – and may require more creativity in Kiffin’s part. Typically, this unit doesn’t blitz that much with ends Carter and RDE Gaines Adams (31 T, 6 S, 2 INT) plus backups Greg White (25 T, 5 S) and Jimmy Wilkerson (17 T, 4 S) accounting for 19 of the team’s 26 total sacks. 6’2” 241 MLB Barrett Ruud (103 T, 3 S, 2 INT) has three but with good defensive backfield experience in guys like Barber, SS Jermaine Phillips (47 T, 3 INT), and LCB Phillip Buchanon (42 T, 2 INT) to back some risk we would like to see them send a guy like 6’1” 206 rookie nickel back Aquib Talib (18 T, 3 INT) who’s athletic ability could produce some havoc. Even after Monday night’s performance, the stats are pretty decent at 18.3 points and 293.7 yards per game allowed.
Coach John Gruden (95-78 in 11th season) has a pretty good man at the trigger in 10thyear QB Jeff Garcia (206 of 309 for 2223 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) are good size and talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions but his belief in the rushing game as the decisive factor in games just can’t be shaken – even though his personnel is thinnest there. With Earnest Graham on the IR, RB Warrick Dunn (155 for 689 and 2 TD rushing, 34 for 257 receiving) is the early and often weapon despite his age (12th season) and size (180 pounds). It’s good to see Cadillac Williams (29 for 69 and 2 TD) back in the game and his 9 carry for 22 yards and a score performance against Carolina might not be eye-popping but this franchise is dearly happy to have him back for the stretch run. Garcia’s got good vision but at 6’1” he’s not a huge guy and better size at receiver certainly would help. 6’4” 215 Michael Clayton (31 for 333 yards and 0 TD) could have been that guy but just has never matured into a dependable guy that can get open consistently or go up and fight for the ball with veteran 5’11” 210 Ike Hillard (38 for 351 and 4 TD) still the better option to pair with 6’1” 205 star WR Antonio Bryant (66 for 936 and 5 TD). In such a conservative offensive attack, play in both blocking and receiving from the tight ends position is critical and although Tampa can’t boast a game-changer, they do have 3 strong players that can do it all. 6’4” 258 Alex Smith (20 for 248 and 3 TD), 6’5” 257 John Gilmore (13 for 135 and TD), and 6’7” 260 Jerramy Stevens (30 for 321 and 2 TD) add needed beef in the ground game to an offensive line that isn’t huge by NFL standards (6’4” 310 per man) and become weapons in the red zone. Keep your eyes on return man 5’8” 190 rookie back from Rutgers Clifton Smith who has already taken the rock to the rack from both the punt (16.7 yards per) and kick (29.5 per) this season.
Atlanta (8-5) The Falcons came up short in a thrilling 25-29 loss Sunday in New Orleans but with 414 total yards of offense, a single turnover, and 32:52 minutes of possession little shine has come off a special season for a young team. From first-year coach Mike Smith to the front line that includes rookie LT Sam Baker, 2nd-year LG Justin Blalock, 2nd-year RG Harvey Dahl, and 3rd-year RT Tyson Clabo to the rookie at the trigger 6’4” 220 QB Matt Ryan (227 of 366 for 2940 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT) this season could have gone off the tracks early but instead finds them in the hunt for the postseason. That very same young line has pounded out holes for the league’s 2nd-best 146.7 yards rushing per game at 4.2 yards per carry with 18 scores on the ground while allowing their young quarterback to get sacked just 13 times this season – despite his taking every passing snap of the entire season. After holding back the reigns a little to open the season, Coach Smith and Offensive Coordinator Brain VanGorder are now running one of the most balanced attacks in the National Football League with the powerful work of backs 5’10” 244 Michael Turner (300 for 1269 yards and 14 TD) and Jerious Norwood (82 for 430 and 2 TD rushing, 31 for 281 and 1 TD receiving) matched with a growing passing offense that averages 220.0 yards per game at a very efficient 8.0 yards per attempt. WR Roddy White (78 for 1249 yards and 6 TD) continues to prove his status as one of the best – if least hyped – receivers in the pro football alongside of Michael Jenkins (39 for 589 and 3 TD) while rookie 5’11” 171 WR Harry Douglass (21 for 310 and TD) is a flat-out blazer that is also averaging 15.2 yards per punt return including another score. In July, who would have expected 24.8 points and 366.7 yards per game from this squad?
Say what you will about Mike Mularkey’s head coaching career, his unit is the heart and soul of the resurgence in Atlanta. The numbers are only decent at 20.8 points on 121.8 rush yards and 223.0 pass yards per game surrendered but this groups physical toughness and veteran leadership in the locker room has sent the message that this isn’t just some turf team that can be bullied. Up front, 6’2” 345 RDT Grady Jackson is simply unmovable and bring the perspective of a player that almost lost his career a couple times while 6’4” 266 RDE John “The Predator” Abraham (30 T, 3 FR) is still one of the best in the NFL off the edge with 12 quarterback sacks through 13 games this season. 6’0” 248 rookie MLB Curtis Lofton (80 T, S) is having a very solid first season, made possible by the superior veteran play of OLB’s Michael Boley (57 T, INT) and Keith Brooking (76 T) allowing Lofton to have limited responsibilities and build his game from there. Atlanta’s defensive backfield is also greatly helped by the steady hand of one of the league’s gray beards. 5’11” 175 LCB Chris Houston (48 T, 2 INT) is in his second pro year, 4th-year 5’11” 180 RCB Dominique Foxworth (24 T) is getting his first sustained action as starting corner, plus nickel and dime backs 5’11” 185 Chevis Jackson (25 T, INT) and Brent Grimes (34 T, INT) are each first-year players that get plenty of playing time. Without a guy like 13-year SS Lawyer Milloy (74 T, INT) in the middle making the calls and providing some size in run support, this could be a very different season for a team not built for big comebacks. P Michael Koenen has been just superb again this year. Just 40.4 yards per won’t get you many votes for Honolulu but that fact that he has been returned for just 1.7 yards per punt indicates his skill and value to his team.
SELECTION: Since the Falcons are 8-0 when scoring first and 0-5 when not, the outcome of this tilt may be learned pretty early on but not early enough to help you at the window! The home and away splits might. This entire conference is 24-2 at home and 10-16 on the highway with the Buccaneers holding a 3-4 record on the road and the Falcons 5-1 at the Georgia Dome. Take Atlanta –3.
Dr. Vegas
Bills vs Jets
A classic AFC East battle, with two teams in completely different places right now. The Jets are in a three-way tie for first, while the Bills sit alone at the bottom of the division.
Buffalo is 6-7 SU, 0-4 SU in the division, and 5-8 ATS. They have scored 279 points and given up 275. They have lost 6 of their last 7 against the spread, and have only scored two field goals in their last two games. Making things worse, their loss last week to Miami essentially ended their shot at the playoffs this year, since they would lose about any tiebreaker scenario.
The Jets are 8-5 SU, 3-1 SU in the division, and 7-6 ATS. They have outscored their opponents 354-292. They have lost the last two ATS, following 4 ATS wins in a row prior to that.
The first meeting this season between these two teams was on November 2. The Jets were a 5-point dog, but won outright 26-17. 4 of the past 7 meetings have gone over.
The exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Ratings have Bufflo at +0.6, with an opponent ratings of -2.9. The Jets have a rating of +5.6, and an opponent rating of -1.5. In other words, the Jets have done better and faced stronger opponents.
Buffalo, in their own words, are embarrassed, disappointed, and letdown. With the prospects of the playoffs practically out of their reach, they could actually benefit from these angry feelings. And at this point they have nothing to lose.
And with the status of quarterback Trent Edwards listed as doubtful due to a groin injury, J.P. Losman’s presence enthusiasm could give this team a spark. He has certainly been waiting for this moment since losing his starting status to an injury last season.
The game opened with Buffalo +7.
Take Buffalo plus the points.
Mike Wynn Sports
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
If you’re a fan of tough bruising physical football it doesn’t get any better than Pittsburgh versus Baltimore this Sunday. Both these teams are cut from the same mold. They both love to run the ball and control the clock and they both pride themselves on tremendous defense. Pittsburgh got out with a win in overtime the first time these two met at Heinz Field, and this one figures to be another close hard fought battle. So let’s take a look at these two similar teams and we’ll start with the visiting Steelers from Pittsburgh.
You can’t enough about the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Pittsburgh ranks number 1 in pass defense, number 1 in rush defense, and number 2 in scoring defense this season. With a defense like that your going to win a lot of games even when your offense is struggling and the Steelers can thank the defense for more than a couple wins this season. Pittsburgh offense only ranks number 26 overall in yardage this season. Steelers average just under 104 yards per game on the ground, which is a bit surprising, and just 199 yards passing per game. QB Ben Roethlisberger may have a big arm, big body, and a pocket presence that frustrates opposing defenses at times, but his numbers are not all that impressive. Roethlisberger has 14 touchdown tosses but he also has 12 interceptions this season and a QB rating of 80.1 ranks him the bottom third of NFL quarterbacks. Despite missing 5 games this season Willie Parker still leads the Steelers in rushing this season with 597 yards, and their going to need him healthy if they want to make a Super Bowl run this season. Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes have stepped up their games this season in the receiving corps, but Hines Ward is still the guy that makes the tough catches in traffic when Pittsburgh needs it. Steelers have the defense to win a Super Bowl but I don’t know if they have the offense and that offense will get a huge test here at Baltimore Sunday and then again next week at Tennessee.
Once again the theme here for the Baltimore Ravens is defense. Baltimore defense ranks second overall behind Pittsburgh and they’ve been a real ball hawking crew led by Ed Reed their outstanding safety. Ravens lead the league in picks this year with 22 and they’ve scored on 5 of those interceptions this season. An outstanding defense nothing new in Baltimore, but what is new is an offense that’s actually capable of winning games. Rookie QB Joe Flacco out of Delaware is kind of a Ben Roethlisberger clone. Like Roethlisberger, Flacco is enjoying success in his rookie campaign and it’s mainly due to the team he plays on. Baltimore second in the AFC in rushing this season behind only Tennessee and when you can run the ball it can make even an average QB look good in the NFL. Flacco has 13 touchdowns against 10 interceptions this season and his QB rating 81.3 is right there with Roethlisberger. Baltimore boasts 3 players with over 450 yards rushing this season and a big part of that has to do with Lorenzo Neal leading the way with his devastating blocks. Neal the unsung hero for many 1,000 yard rushers in his career, but his teammates know just how important he is to the offense. Wide outs Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton and benefited greatly with Flacco at QB and this offense should only get better as offensive coordinator Cam Cameron opens up more and more of the play book as Flacco gets more and more familiar with the offense. Again the Ravens have the defense to win a Super Bowl, but how far can they get with a rookie QB in the post season?
So let’s take a look at some of the trends and angles for this match up Sunday. Ravens have won 6 straight meetings in this series at home and they’ve covered the last 4 ATS at home in series. Baltimore is 5-1 straight up & ATS at home this season, while the Steelers are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS on the road. Steelers have traditionally played the underdog role well with a 54-37 ATS record since 1992 but the Ravens are also a solid home favorite of 42-25 over the same span. Surprisingly 4 of the last 5 games in this series have gone over the total and they’ve played over in 7 of the last 12 in Baltimore. Ravens are 16-5 over versus conference opponents the last 2 seasons and Pittsburgh on a 6-0 over run in games where the total is 35 points or less. I have a tough time recommending an under with these two incredible defenses on the field and I’m going to lean toward the Ravens in the rematch. Ravens out played Pittsburgh in that first meeting and came up short in overtime, and I think it’ll be a different story for Baltimore at home. With the line less than 3 we’ll look for a Baltimore win and cover here Sunday.
Razor Sharp Sports
Denver @ Carolina
Here we are 3 weeks remaining in the NFL regular season. For the two teams we are going to talk aobut here, those 3 weeks are more than likely positioning weeks. More than likely both the Broncos and the Panthers will be in the playoffs, just which seed and possible bye weeks come into play. For the Broncos, the division title looks like a forgone conclusion. A win by them or a loss by the Chargers in any of the next three weeks would wrap things up. As for getting a first round by, the Broncos would have to win out and have Pittsburgh lose all three. They are still battling for the #3 spot with the AFC East winner. They are tied at 8-5 with the three-headed leader of the East (Jets, Patriots, & Dolphins). For the Panthers, they are now in the drivers seat to win their division after the Monday night victory or Tampa Bay. They now lead the Bucs by a game, the Falcons by two and the Saints by 3. They are also the #2 as we sit right now, just a game behind the Giants for the #1 sport, though the Giants would have the tiebreaker due to conference record as we sit now. Both the NFC North Vikings and NFC West Cardinals are both 2 games behind the Panthers to take over the #2 spot. So lets take a look at both teams a little closer and the game itself.
First of all, lets look at the Broncos. Denver has started to get things rolling. They have won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5. 3 of those victories came on the road. The key to the Broncos success has been the reemergence of their running game to go along with Jay Cutler’s pass attack. Rookie RB Peyton Hillis has teamed with second timer Tatum Bell to handle the rushing duties. Hillis has taken over the starting RB job 4 weeks ago and has run for 305 yards and 5 TDs in those games. Prior to that, Hillis had just 38 yards rushing. Bell, who was a 1000 yard rusher in Denver in 2006, returned to Denver 3 weeks ago after a stay in Detroit. Bell ran for 52 yards last week and has 100 for the 3 games since he got back to the Mile High City. Bell will have to step up even more as Hillis was placed on the IR this week. As for that aerial attack, Cutler has put up solid numbers all year long. For the season he is completing 62.4% of his passes for 3679 yards (283 yards/game) with 23 TDs and 14 ints. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal have made a dangerous 1-2 combo at reciever. Defensively, the Broncos have struggled this season. They rank 28th in yards allowed at 371 per game and they are allowing 25.8 points per game that puts them low in the rankings. Another glaring problem that could definately come into paly this week is their rush defense. They are allowing almost 140 yards per game there. Denver is dead last in the AFC and 31st overall in the NFL in turnovers at -12.
On the other side of the field is the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers looked like a real contender in their big divisional victory last Monday night over Tampa Bay. They ran for 300 yards and through for another 175 in their 15 point victory. Carolina has now won 6 of their last 7 and are 7-0 at home as they look to finish their regular season home schedule perfect this week. The running combo of 3rd year back DeAngelo Williams and Rookie Jonathan Stewart have been punishing defenses all year. For the season, Williams has run for 1141 yards and 13 TDs, while Stewart has added 699 yards and 8 more tallies. QB Jake Delhomme has come back from shoulder surgery that cost him all of last year. He has completed 58.5% of his passes for the year for 2600 yards. Over the last 3 weeks those numbers have gone up. He has completed 47-72 (65.2%) for 645 yards. Delhomme’s top target is still All-Pro WR Steve Smith. Smith has 61 catches for 1075 yards and 5 TDs. The defense is led by All-Pro DE Julius Peppers with 12.5 sacks, November Defensive Player of the Month LB Jon Beason with 112 tackles and 3 interceptions and DB Chris Gamble 76 tackles and 2 interceptions. Overall defensively, they rank 7th in points allowed at 19.5 points per game. They are allowing 318.8 yards per game with falls in the middle of the league and have allowed 99 points in their last 3 games. The team is +3 turnovers.
The way both offenses are moving the ball and the way that both defenses are giving up points, I think you have to look at the OVER here in this won. Take DENVER/CAROLINA OVER the total of 47.
Marc Lawrence
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: St. Louis Rams
Two teams going head-to-head in a who-cares matchup here. If there is any solace in this game its that the winner will escape the basement in the NFC West Division. Amazingly, St. Louis has dressed in dog-cloth seventeen straight games, including every game this season. The Rams step up to the plate with a 12-1 ATS mark as home with revenge off a division game whereas the Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in Game Fourteen the last four seasons. Look for St. Louis to avenge a 37-13 loss earlier this season. Grab the points with the Rams.