Indiancowboy
Detroit Lions +17 over Indianapolis Colts
Wow, this is such a big spread. Note, that Orlovsky is likely to start this game as Culpepper is doubtful. But, if you are a Lions fan you want Orlovsky to start as he is far more accurate and frankly more athletic than Culpepper. Stanton is listed as probable as well – if you don’t know who he is – he is a no name QB that the Lions picked up because all of their quarterbacks are hurt. Addai is questionable for Indianapolis. The line opened up at -17 and 45 and has remained steady. The Colts have won 6 straight games as they go for win #10 today at home. Don’t forget though the Lions have covered their last four games on the road including a home cover last week over the Vikings which was my POD. I lean on the points and the Lions here if Orlovsky is the starter but I don’t think that will be announced until closer to game time. Plus, I can see how there could be a backdoor cover as well. But, it is not as if the Lions are not getting any love here as they do have 45% of the public backing. But, the Lions have had solid success covering on the road and I like them here with Orlovsky as he is a much better player overall and I think the Lions will make it interesting and likely lose by 10-13 points here. It's enough for me to take a shot on them as my comp selection.
The Black Cat
Detroit +17 Indianapolis (Colts 33, Detroit 17)
This year has been marked by an outstanding performance of double-digit dogs against the spread. I was real tempted to play the Lions last week and they rewarded by nearly winning the game. I have this game to be as far apart as 20 points and as close as 10. The Lions defense is atrocious and will be easy picking for Manning, but their offense hasn't given up the fight yet and a few plays like last week will cover this large spread.
Oakland +7 -115 New England (New England 20, Oakland 14)
Speaking of bad teams with fight in them, Oakland has been very competitive in the 2nd half of the season. Sure, they got their tail kicked in by the Chargers, but they always match up poorly with that team. Now off of a long week and with the Patriot QB situation in question, this is a ripe opportunity for the Raiders to cover the spread. They haven't done much for me this season, so they owe me one today.
Minnesota +3 +105 Arizona (Minnesota 24, Arizona 23)
Personally, I think Gus Frerotte is a big loss for this football team. Consider that 99 yard pass they had after the 4th down stop to win a big game recently, would we have gotten that from Jackson? Probably not. However, I just don't see Arizona having much to play for in this game, so I see this as a very good value in a must win game for the Vikings. There will be plenty of purple jerseys in Arizona this weekend.
NYG +3 -115 Dallas (NYG 28, Dallas 23)
This line is nearly delusional. Dallas fans, you are not as good as the New York Giants. In fact, nowhere close. The Giants are without Plax and Jacobs but that hardly seems to matter. Manning will carry the day and they will still find ways to grind out yards on the Cowboys. And it will hardly be history to see the Cowboys get punked in December yet again. I don't bet trends, but that is a trend. I am not basing this on team turmoil, but it does make this more amusing than usual, doesn't it? What better win on my 100th game than to watch Dallas go down in flames?
Game Time Sports Advisors
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play:Pittsburgh Steelers +3
These Steelers just keep winning. This is going to be a tough game. Flacco has impressed me big time this year. But I think he is in for a rough game against this defense. He didn't do much last week, it was 14-0 six minutes(thanks to the defense) in and he had a stretch of missing on 11 of 12 passes. He is only a rookie. FREE MONEY STEELERS
Cajun Sports
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +5.5
Arrowhead Stadium will be the site of today’s AFC clash between the host Kansas City Chiefs and the visiting Chargers from San Diego. San Diego still has a pulse when it comes to its feint playoff hopes. The win over Oakland last Thursday night kept the Chargers alive in AFC West behind Denver, at least for another week.
Today they’ll take on a Chiefs team that they edged 20 to 19 at home as a 15-point favorite in Week 10. The difference for this contest is the Chargers are on the road and that has not been kind to them this season posting a record of 1-5 straight up.
If you recall the last time these two met the Chiefs were a two-point conversion away from upsetting this Chargers team at QUALCOMM Stadium. The Chargers shouldn’t really be laying any chalk away from home as they rank 25th in yards allowed and 30th against the pass.
Despite their 2-11 record this Chiefs team is playing with a lot of emotion and drive. Over their last seven games they are averaging 22.5 points per game and this is due in large part to the improved play of first year starter QB Tyler Thigpen. The last seven games have seen him throw for 1, 534 yards with twelve touchdowns to only 4 interceptions.
Taking a closer look at this series we see that in each of the last three seasons the Chiefs have managed to capture one win from the Chargers in this series. We also see that the Chiefs have defeated the Chargers in eight of their last ten meetings at Arrowhead. One final note Kansas City is 9-1 ATS their last 11 games at home when revenging back-to-back losses.
Data base research has uncovered a technical system that is active for today’s contest. Play ON a home team with a TOTAL of more than 38 points seeking revenge for a non-Monday SU loss and ATS win of more than 5 points in the first matchup, 13-0 ATS since 1993 and averages covering the spread by 9.0 points per game.
With strong situational and technical support it makes it easy to take the points at home with the Chiefs as they get that straight up win they just missed back in Week 10 against these same Chargers.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Kansas City Chiefs +5.5
Nelly
Seattle – over St. Louis
Although Seattle lost last week the Seahawks had one of their better offensive games and nearly knocked off New England. The Rams have now lost seven in a row and the offense has not topped 16 points in any of the last six games. Home field has not meant much in this series that Seattle has had recent control over. Seattle has scored 68 more points than the Rams while allowing 59 fewer points so far this season so these teams have not been as equal as the matching 2-11 records appear. Even without Hasselbeck Seattle has a better shot.
KING CREOLE
UNDER the TOTAL GB Packers @ JAX Jaguars
This week, 'man's best friend' heads to the northern portion of the Sunshine State for the UNDER in the Packers-Jaguars game. When two teams hook up late in the season off multiple SU and ATS losses in a row, we can expect LOW-scoring results. 0-6 O/U last 10 years for all GAME 9 > home teams (line of 10 < pts) with both playing off 3 SU and ATS losses in a row. That's the case for both teams, who have not won a game or covered a spread in a month. Both teams also qualify in multiple 2008-specific Systems that are mentioned on page three. For the PACKERS, it's OU Systems like 0-5 O/U for non-division road favorites playing off BB home games. For the JAGUARS, it's 0-5 O/U for home underdogs playing off BB road games... and 0-3 O/U for AFC home dogs hosting a NFC opponent.
Dave Cokin
Titans @ Texans
Play: Titans -3
The Texans are showing plenty of life right now. In fact, were it not for a couple of really crippling losses they shouldn't have absorbed, this team would be smack in the middle of the playoff chase. Houston does seem to be figuring out how to win some of those close ones, and there's no question they're a better team with Schaub back at QB. But there's also no question which team is stronger here, and the Titans just aren't showing signs of losing any momentum. I'll back the more proven entity to maintain their winning ways and that gets me to Tennessee minus the number.
Jim Feist
BUFFALO BILLS at NEW YORK JETS
Take: NEW YORK JETS
Reason: The Jets are in a 3-way tie for first in the AFC East and come home after a miserable trip to the West Coast, losing 24-14 at San Francisco. Fortunately, a cupcake awaits at home. Poor Buffalo (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) has fallen apart, on a 1-6 SU/ATS run. They had a 10-3 home loss to San Francisco in a must-win game, then packed it in Sunday in a 16-3 loss to Miami in a game played in Toronto. Yes, it was indoors, beautiful, warm temperature….and the offense had 3 points for the second straight week (after scoring 54 at Kansas City three games ago). Go figure this team. One reason is that second-year QB Trent Edwards (10 TDs, 10 INTs) has a groin injury and didn’t play Sunday. QB J.P. Losman (1 TD, 2 INTs) was 13-of-27 for 123 yards Sunday and a costly interception that ended Buffalo's best scoring drive. With weapons like RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans and slot WR Roscoe Parrish, there is no excuse for this offense to be so inept. Buffalo lost 26-17 at home to the Jets with 3 turnovers. The Bills are 1-3 SU/ATS their last four road games. The Jets limp home from the West Coast, where they went 0-3 SU/ATS following Sunday’s loss at San Francisco. The Jets (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) were on a nice roll before the last two games, losing 34-17 at home to Denver and at San Fran, 24-14. For the second straight week, Brett Favre looked clueless against a lower-echelon defense. The Jets spread out Tennessee, Favre threw often, and they wore the Titans' defense down by keeping it on the field for more than 40 minutes. The run defense has been stout with the addition of NT Kris Jenkins. Tennessee became the fifth team the Jets have held to 50 yards rushing or less. The offense has good balance with RB Thomas Jones (1,144 yards, 4.4 ypc), WRs Lavearneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, and TE Dustin Keller. Despite the 13th ranked offense, their 27 points per game is fifth in the NFL and tops in the AFC because of terrific special teams. The home team wants it bad, the visitors don’t seem to care.
John Ryan
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Seattle - Two of the worst teams face off in this game and the road team has a big time advantage. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 31-5 for 86% since 1983. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a cover where the team lost as a dog and in the second half of the season. i think too it says something when two 2-11 teams square off and the ROAD team is a slight favorite. The Rams have scored 20 or more points ONVE this season and again, even with Jackson back at RB, the Rams are still dogs. Seattle will have a strong opportunity to rush the ball and the AiS shows an 88% probability that Seattle will gain 125 or more rushing yards. Note that over the past 3 seasons, Seattle is 8-1 ATS in this role. The stadium will be quiet to say the least and the Rams have not scored a 1st quarter TD since November 2. The Seahawks have been a far better team than their record may indicate. in several games this season they simply failed to execute in the final drive of a game with a chance to win or tie. Yes, the failure to execute is a sign of a poor team that is 2-11, but at least they played the opposition close for 55 minutes or more. By way of contrast, the Rams were down 14-0 in about 5 minutes time last week and the game was all but over. Take Seattle to play hard for the outgoing Hc Holmgrem.
Jimmy The Moose
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Two team's that have a 2-11 SU record meetup in St. Louis this afternoon. Seattle is having a bad season but they have lost several close games this season. The Seahawks have lost 4 of their last 5 games by 6 points or less. Seattle is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in December. In their last 14 games following a SU loss the Seahawks are 9-4-1 ATS. The Rams come into this one looking like a team that has thrown in the towel. St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. In their last 10 games as a home dog the Rams are 2-8 ATS. The Rams are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings with Seattle. The Seahawks have looked better and will take this one. Play on the Seattle Seahawks +.
Jimmy Moore
Washington @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati +6.5
The Redskins are a mess right now with only 1 cover in thier last 8 games and that was a half point cover against Detroit. Cincy is terrible but they have not given up on the season yet as evidenced by their strong showing in thier last home game against Philly.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Green Bay (5-8, 7-6 ATS) at Jacksonville (4-9, 3-10 ATS)
Two teams whose seasons are surprisingly all but over square off when the Packers travel to Alltel Stadium to meet the Jaguars.
Green Bay tumbled to Houston 24-21 as a seven-point home favorite, losing on Kris Brown’s 40-yard field goal for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Aaron Rodgers (295 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and RB Ryan Grant (104 yards rushing, 1 TD) were solid, and Green Bay won the turnover battle 4-1. But the Packers allowed a whopping 549 total yards, with Falcons QB Matt Schaub (28 of 42, 414 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and RB Steve Slaton (26 carries, 120 yards) doing most of the damage.
Jacksonville lost to Chicago 23-10 as a 6½-point road underdog to fall to 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four starts, and the SU winner is now on a 9-0 ATS tear for the Jags. It was an evenly played game, with Jacksonville outgained by just 18 yards (296-278) and both teams committing one turnover, but the Jaguars trailed 20-3 at halftime and didn’t get into the end zone until the fourth quarter.
These squads haven’t met in the regular season since 2004, when Jacksonville won 28-25 as a four-point road pup.
Despite their current woes, the Packers remain on positive ATS streaks of 21-10-1 overall, 13-4-1 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk, 7-2 against losing teams and 8-4-1 visiting AFC teams. The Jaguars are on ATS runs of 9-4 at home against the NFC and 8-3-1 as a home pup, but the trends turn downward from there, including 0-6 at Alltel, 1-12 on grass and 1-5 against losing teams.
The over is on several runs for Green Bay, including 22-7-1 overall, 12-2 with the Pack favored, 7-2-1 after a SU loss and 39-19-2 on the road. On the flip side, the under for Jacksonville is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall, 8-3 with the Jags a home pup and 4-0 overall with the Jags getting points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Detroit (0-13, 5-8 ATS) at Indianapolis (9-4, 6-7 ATS)
The streaking Colts look to take a step closer to securing a wild-card berth when they host the hapless Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis ripped Cincinnati 35-3 to cash as a heavy 13½-point home chalk for its sixth consecutive victory (3-3 ATS). QB Peyton Manning (26 of 32, 277 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid, and the Colts defense allowed just 252 yards while winning the turnover battle 4-1, including Kelvin Hayden’s 85-yard INT return for a TD in the fourth quarter.
Detroit fell short to Minnesota 20-16 as a 10½-point home underdog, ending a two-game ATS skid but still falling to 1-20 SU and 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games. QB Daunte Culpepper (14 of 24, 220 yards, 1 TD) was steady in leading a turnover-free effort, but the Lions couldn’t take advantage of a 13-10 fourth-quarter lead nor a 2-0 edge in the turnover battle.
In two meetings this decade, Indy is 2-0 SU and ATS against Detroit, most recently winning 41-9 as a 9½-point road chalk in 2004.
The Colts are on ATS skids of 1-7-1 after a spread-cover, 2-6 at home and 4-9 in December, but they are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games against NFC foes. The Lions are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games catching points, but they have cashed in their last four road games, all as a double-digit chalk, and they are on a 10-1 ATS run as a pup of more than 10 points.
The under for Indianapolis is on a 4-1 run with the Colts a home chalk of more than 10 points. But the over for Detroit is on rolls of 16-5-1 overall, 9-1-1 against winning teams, 7-1-1 in December, 8-2 on the road and 10-2 with the Lions a ‘dog of more than 10.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Washington (7-6, 5-7-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-11-1, 4-9 ATS)
The Redskins will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they head to Paul Brown Stadium to take on the woeful Bengals.
Washington lost to Baltimore 24-10 as a six-point road pup, falling to 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games, and the SU winner is now on an 18-1-1 ATS tear in the Redskins’ last 20 games (11-1-1 ATS this season). QB Jason Campbell (21 of 37, 218 yards, 1 TD) threw a pair of INTs, and Ravens DB Ed Reed ran a Clinton Portis fumble back for a TD.
Cincinnati got pounded by Indianapolis 35-3 catching 13½ points on the road, losing SU and ATS for the third straight week. QB Ryan Fitzgerald (18 of 26, 170 yards, 0 TDs) had two INTs, with one returned 85 yards for a TD, and he also lost a fumble as the Bengals committed four turnovers while forcing just one.
Cincinnati won the only meeting this decade between these two teams, 17-10 getting four points on the road in 2004.
The Redskins are on ATS slides of 0-7-1 against the AFC, 3-7 as a non-division chalk and 3-11-2 against losing teams, though they have gone 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven roadies. The Bengals have nothing but negative ATS trends, including 2-6 overall, 3-8 as a home ‘dog, 1-5 after a SU loss, 1-4 after a non-cover and 2-5 in December.
The under for Washington is on tears of 8-0-1 overall, 5-0-1 with the Redskins favored, 5-1 on grass and 4-1-1 on the road, and the under for Cincinnati is on streaks of 6-1 in December, 6-2-1 at home and 9-4-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tampa Bay (9-4, 7-6 ATS) at Atlanta (8-5 SU and ATS)
Two NFC South rivals looking to keep pace in the postseason chase get together when the Buccaneers travel to the Georgia Dome to face the Falcons.
Tampa Bay tumbled to Carolina 38-23 Monday night as a three-point road ‘dog, ending a four-game SU win streak as the Bucs failed to cover for the second straight week. QB Jeff Garcia (24 of 38, 321 yards, 2 TDs) was solid in leading a turnover-free offense, and Tampa forced two turnovers, but it also allowed 464 yards – including a whopping 299 rushing yards -- and gave up three fourth-quarter touchdowns.
Atlanta lost to New Orleans 29-25 as a three-point road pup, ending a two-game SU and ATS surge. QB Matt Ryan (24 of 33, 315 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was fairly effective, and both teams finished with 414 total yards, but Ryan’s INT – the only turnover of the game – was converted into the first TD of the game by the Saints and ultimately proved the difference.
The SU winner is now 21-1 in the Falcons’ last 22 games, including a perfect 13-0 ATS this season.
Tampa is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run against Atlanta, including a 24-9 home win as a seven-point home chalk in September, and is on further pointspread runs in this rivalry of 6-2 at the Georgia Dome and 11-5 overall. The favorite has cashed in the last five clashes between these two.
The Buccaneers are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 1-5 as a ‘dog of three points or less, 1-4 in December and 2-5 following a non-cover. The Falcons are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight division contests, but they are on pointspread streaks of 7-2 as a chalk, 6-0 after a SU loss, 5-0 after an ATS setback and 6-1 at home.
The over for Tampa Bay is on stretches of 4-0 on field turf, 6-0 in December and 9-2 on the road, and the over for Atlanta is on runs of 8-2 at home, 6-0 in December, 9-1 after a SU loss, 9-2 on field turf and 6-2 in NFC South play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
San Francisco (5-8, 6-7 ATS) at Miami (8-5, 6-7 ATS)
The Dolphins, who are in a three-way logjam for first in the AFC East just a season after winning one game, step out of the AFC to take on the surging 49ers.
Miami dropped Buffalo 16-3 in Toronto as a one-point “road” underdog for its second straight win, halting a four-game ATS tailspin in the process. QB Chad Pennington (23 of 29, 181 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t light it up, nor did he need to, as the Dolphins won the turnover battle 2-0, allowed just 163 total yards while gaining 295, and had a 15-minute advantage in time of possession (37:31-22:29).
San Francisco knocked off the Jets 24-14 catching four points at home for its second straight win and cover, giving the SU winner a 23-1 ATS record in the Niners’ last 24 games (12-1 ATS this year). QB Shaun Hill (28 of 39, 285 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) helped San Fran outscore New York 10-0 in the fourth quarter, and the defense held New York to a stifling 182 total yards as the 49ers nearly doubled the Jets in time of possession (39:49-20:11).
These two squads have met twice this decade, both times by the Bay, and each has gone 1-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, Miami won 24-17 as a one-point pup in 2004.
Despite their 8-5 SU mark, the Dolphins are on a bevy of ATS freefalls, including 5-21 as a favorite, 7-22-1 against losing teams, 12-32-1 at home and 1-5 against the NFC. The 49ers have cashed in four of their last five starts, but they also carry several negative ATS trends, including 9-24-1 in the Eastern Time Zone, 5-12 as a non-division ‘dog and 4-9 on the highway.
The under for Miami is on runs of 6-1 overall, 4-0 with the Dolphins favored, 10-2 after a SU win and 5-2 at home, but the over for San Francisco is on upticks of 4-1 on grass and 7-3-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Seattle (2-11, 5-8-1 ATS) at St. Louis (2-11, 4-9 ATS)
In a battle of squads mired in the NFC West basement meet at the Edward Jones Dome, with the Rams trying to end a seven-game losing skid overall and a seven-game skid to Seattle when they host the Seahawks.
Seattle couldn’t quite pull off the upset of New England, losing 24-21 as a seven-point home ‘dog for its sixth consecutive SU setback (2-3-1 ATS), though the Seahawks did cover for the first time in a month. QB Seneca Wallace (20 of 28, 212 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) helped Seattle take a 21-13 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Pats put up 11 points in the final frame and sealed the game by recovering a Wallace fumble late.
St. Louis got rolled at Arizona 34-10 as a heavy 14-point pup for its seventh straight loss (2-5 ATS). QB Marc Bulger (22 of 37, 228 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had decent stats, but turnovers killed the Rams, as they gave the ball away three times, with DB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie returning a pick 99 yards for a TD and DT Darnell Dockett returning a fumble 11 yards for a score.
Seattle is on a 7-0 SU run (5-2 ATS) in this NFC West rivalry, winning and cashing in the last three contests, including a 37-13 home rout in September as a nine-point home favorite.
The Seahawks actually sport a few positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 inside the division, 6-2 in December and 9-4-1 after a SU loss, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-8 as a road chalk and 1-7 after a spread-cover. The Rams, meanwhile, have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, most notably 1-5 overall, 0-4 in December, 0-6 in division play, 2-6 at home and 8-20 getting points.
The under for Seattle is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against NFC foes and 4-1 after a SU loss, and the under for St. Louis is on a 5-2 run, but the over for the Rams is on stretches of 4-1 against losing teams 9-3 in December and 9-4 with St. Louis a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Buffalo (6-7, 5-8 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (8-5, 7-6 ATS)
The suddenly slumping Jets hope to remain in the playoff hunt when they welcome the AFC East rival Bills to the Meadowlands.
New York went to San Francisco last week and got stung 24-14 as a four-point road chalk, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week following a 5-0 SU run (4-1 ATS). QB Brett Favre (20 of 31, 137 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had an awful day, capped by the INT he threw late in the fourth quarter to seal the Jets’ fate. New York was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter and finished the day with a meager 182 total yards and just 20 minutes time of possession.
Buffalo continued its freefall with a 16-3 “home” loss to Miami in Toronto, where the Bills were a one-point favorite but dropped to 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games. QB J.P. Losman (13 of 27, 123 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a weak outing in relief of the injured Trent Edwards, losing one of his three fumbles to go along with his INT. The Bills gained just 163 total yards – while allowing 295 – and had a 15-minute time-of-possession deficit.
Buffalo is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, but the one loss came last month when New York posted a 26-17 road win catching five points. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, the underdog is on a 6-0 ATS surge and the road team has cashed in four of the last five contests.
The Jets are on ATS surges of 1-4 as a favorite, 1-4 after a SU loss and 3-9 against losing teams, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last six division contests. The Bills are on a 6-2 ATS run as a division road ‘dog, but they are otherwise on pointspread declines of 0-4 in division play, 0-7 against winning teams and 2-5 as an underdog.
The over for New York is on runs of 5-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 against the AFC and 4-1 at home, but the under for Buffalo is on rolls of 5-2-1 overall, 6-1 with the Bills a road ‘dog and 6-2-1 inside the division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Tennessee (12-1, 11-2 ATS) at Houston (6-7 SU and ATS)
The Titans, on the brink of securing home-field advantage for the playoffs, head to Reliant Stadium looking for their eighth straight win over the resurgent Texans.
Tennessee rolled past Cleveland 28-9 as a healthy 14-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover, and the SU winner is now 12-1 in the Titans’ 13 games this season. RBs Chris Johnson (19 carries, 136 yards, 1 TD) and LenDale White (24 carries, 99 yards, 1 TD) combined for 235 yards rushing, helping offset two INTs from QB Kerry Collins (14 of 23, 155 yards, 2 TDs), and the Titans defense allowed just 178 yards.
Houston stunned Green Bay 24-21 as a seven-point road pup for its third straight win and fourth straight cover. QB Matt Schaub (28 of 42, 414 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a monster day, which help the Texans overcome a 4-1 turnover deficit. RB Steve Slaton (26 carries, 120 yards) also came up big, and Kris Brown hit a 40-yard field goal as time expired to give Houston the upset win.
Tennessee is on a 7-0 SU run (6-1 ATS) in this AFC South rivalry, including a 31-12 home rout as a 4½-point home favorite in Week 3, and the Titans have cashed in the last five in a row. However, the underdog is on a 7-3 ATS run in the last 10 contests.
Along with their 11-2 ATS mark this season, the Titans are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 14-2 in division play, 17-5 in roadies, 7-0 against losing teams, 10-2 after a SU win, 10-2 as a favorite and 8-3 in December. The Texans are on ATS skids of 2-5 as a division home dog and 3-7 against winning teams, but they are on spread-covering upticks of 6-1 getting points at home, 5-1 in December and 12-4 at Reliant against teams with a winning road record.
The over for Tennessee is on tears of 5-1 against losing teams, 4-1 against the AFC and 7-2-1 in December, and the over for Houston is on streaks of 11-4 overall, 7-2 with the Texans a pup, 20-7 inside the division and 19-7 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 5-0 overall and 5-0 in Houston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Pittsburgh (10-3, 7-6 ATS) at Baltimore (9-4, 10-3 ATS)
First place in the AFC North is on the line at M&T Bank Stadium, where the Ravens host the Steelers in a clash of bitter rivals.
Pittsburgh rallied to beat Dallas 20-13 as a four-point home chalk and has now won four in a row (3-1 ATS). The Steelers trailed 20-3 entering the fourth quarter, but QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 33, 204 yards, 1 TD) led a FG drive and TD drive to tie it late in the fourth quarter, and CB Deshea Townsend ran back a Tony Romo INT for the winning TD with 1:40 remaining. Pittsburgh was dominated in most phases, but winning the turnover battle 5-2 proved the difference.
Baltimore dropped Washington 24-10 as a six-point home favorite, and the SU winner is now 22-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 24 games (12-1 ATS this season). QB Joe Flacco (10 of 21, 134 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a mediocre effort, but the Ravens won the turnover battle 3-2, with Ed Reed picking off Jason Campbell twice and returning a Clinton Portis fumble for a touchdown.
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU) in the last seven clashes between these rivals, covering as a six-point road ‘dog in a 23-20 overtime loss in September. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Baltimore, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests overall.
The Steelers are on ATS tears of 4-0 on the highway, 9-3 as a division road pup, 5-2 after a SU win and 10-4 in December. Likewise, the Ravens are on a bevy of pointstread rolls, including 7-1 overall, 5-0 as a favorite, 6-0 in the AFC North, 6-1 at home, 9-4 in December and 10-5 as a division home chalk.
The over for Pittsburgh is on stretches of 6-1 against AFC opponents, 4-1 in division play and 5-2 after a SU win, and the over for Baltimore is on streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 4-0 in the division, 14-3-1 on grass, 13-3 against the AFC and 7-3 at home. Finally, the over has hit in four straight meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and OVER
Denver (8-5, 5-8 ATS) at Carolina (10-3, 7-4-2 ATS)
The Panthers, who are now in control of their destiny in the NFC South and are angling for a shot at home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, play host to the Broncos in a non-conference contest at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina dropped Tampa Bay 38-23 on Monday night as a three-point home favorite, moving to 6-1 SU in the last seven games (4-3 ATS). RBs DeAngelo Williams (19 carries, 186 yards, 2 TDs) and Jonathan Stewart (15 carries, 115 yards, 2 TDs) went haywire as the Panthers racked up 299 rushing yards, more than making up for two INTs from Jake Delhomme (14 of 20, 173 yards, 1 TD). Carolina outscored Tampa 21-6 in the fourth quarter.
Denver held off Kansas City 24-17 as a nine-point home choice for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS). QB Jay Cutler (32 of 40, 286 yards, 2 TDs) bounced back after having an early INT returned for a score, and the Broncos made a goal-line stand with just under five minutes left, then ran out the clock from there. Denver, which can clinch the AFC West with a win today, finished with a huge 425-260 edge in total yards and a 13-minute bulge in time of possession.
The last time these squads met was in 2004, when Denver won 20-17, but Carolina covered as a 4½-point road ‘dog.
The Panthers are on ATS surges of 4-0 in December, 7-2-1 at home, 7-2-1 as a favorite, 10-3-1 on grass and 5-2-1 as a home chalk. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a ‘dog, but are otherwise on ATS slides of 10-26-1 overall, 2-7 on grass, 2-6 in December, 7-19-1 after a SU win and 5-12 against winning teams.
The over for Carolina is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on grass and 9-3 in December. The over for Denver is on streaks of 9-2-2 with the Broncos a ‘dog, 4-1-1 on the road, 20-8-1 on grass and 7-3-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and OVER
San Diego (5-8, 5-7-1 ATS) at Kansas City (2-10, 7-6 ATS)
The Chargers, needing a win today and a Broncos loss at Carolina to keep their AFC West hopes alive, head to Arrowhead Stadium for a divisional meeting with the Chiefs.
San Diego pounded Oakland 34-7 as a 9½-point home favorite last Thursday to halt a three-game SU slide and a two-game ATS skid in a Thursday night contest. QB Philip Rivers (10 of 22, 214 yards, 3 TDs) made the most of a limited number of completions, with WR Vincent Jackson (5 catches, 148 yards, 1 TD) the primary target, and the Chargers gained 372 total yards while allowing just 163. San Diego also won the turnover battle 4-1.
Kansas City fell short to Denver 24-17 but still cashed as a nine-point road pup. QB Tyler Thigpen (17 of 32, 187 yards, 1 TD) led a turnover-free offense, but the Chiefs were outgained 425-260, had a time-of-possession deficit of 13 minutes, and Thigpen was stopped on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line with under five minutes remaining.
These squads have alternated ATS wins and losses over the last five games in this rivalry, with San Diego winning 20-19 last month, but K.C. cashing as a heavy 14½-point underdog. The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes, and the Chiefs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Arrowhead.
The Chargers are on a 2-5 ATS slide, but they are on pointspread streaks of 6-0 in December, 17-5-1 against the AFC, 20-6-4 in division play and 7-3-1 on the road. The Chiefs are on a 2-9 ATS nosedive at home, but they carry positive ATS trends of 5-2 overall and 4-0 in the AFC West.
The under for San Diego is on runs of 4-0-1 overall and 6-0-1 against AFC foes, and the under for Kansas City is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-0 against losing teams and 4-1 in the division. And in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (8-5, 5-8 ATS) at Arizona (8-5 SU and ATS)
The Vikings look to firm up their playoff position at University of Phoenix Stadium against the Cardinals, who have already clinched the NFC West.
Minnesota barely beat winless Detroit 20-16 as a 10½-point road favorite to post its third straight victory (2-1 ATS), scoring 10 fourth-quarter points to dodge the upset. QB Gus Frerotte (7 of 10, 70 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) left after the first half with a back injury, and Tarvaris Jackson (8 of 10, 105 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) effectively finished up, aided by RB Adrian Peterson’s efforts (22 carries, 105 yards).
Arizona drilled St. Louis 34-10 as a 14-point home chalk to halt a two-game SU and ATS hiccup. QB Kurt Warner (24 of 33, 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was solid, and the Cards won the turnover battle 3-1, with Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie taking an INT 99 yards for a score and DT Darnell Dockett running in an 11-yard fumble return.
Arizona has cashed in the last two meetings with Minnesota, most recently in a 31-26 road loss as a 6½-point pup in 2006. The Vikings, however, are 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.
The Vikings are on nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 5-11 overall, 0-4 in December, 1-8 after a SU win, 2-6 on the road and 3-6 as a road ‘dog. The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 7-1 as a favorite, 4-1 as a home chalk, 9-3 against winning teams and 6-3 hosting non-division opponents.
The over for Minnesota is on rolls of 5-2 overall, 6-1 with the Vikes a road ‘dog and 17-5-2 after a non-cover, and the over for Arizona is on tears of 25-10 overall, 7-1 at home, 11-2 in December and 13-3 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
New England (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at Oakland (4-9, 4-8-1 ATS)
The Patriots, needing a win to stay in the race for the AFC East title, are on the West Coast for the second straight week when they take on the Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.
New England edged Seattle 24-21 as a seven-point road chalk, failing to cash for the second straight week. The Patriots trailed 21-13 after three quarters, but QB Matt Cassel (26 of 44, 268 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) led two fourth-quarter scoring drives to seal the win, and WR Wesley Welker (12 receptions, 134 yards) had a big day.
Oakland got blasted by San Diego 34-7 as a 9½-point road pup in a Thursday game, falling to 1-6 SU in its last seven games (2-5 ATS). QB JaMarcus Russell (9 of 13, 68 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) was awful before exiting in the second quarter with a sprained ankle, and Andrew Walter (8 of 17, 61 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) wasn’t much better as the Raiders netted just 163 yards while turning the ball over for times. The Chargers had 372 yards and just one turnover.
These teams have met three times this decade, with New England winning the most recent clash in 2005, 30-20 as a 7½-point home favorite.
The Patriots sport positive ATS streaks of 21-9 on the road, 15-5 as a road favorite and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they are on ATS slides of 6-13 overall, 0-4 in December, 1-7 against losing teams and 3-13 after a SU win. The Raiders are on numerous pointspread declines, including 6-20 at home, 8-23 against non-division opponents, 15-36 in December, 18-40-1 after a non-cover and 22-46-1 after a SU loss.
The over for New England is on runs of 4-0 overall and 6-1 with the Pats a road favorite, but the under for Oakland is on stretches of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0 at the coliseum, 9-4 with the Raiders a home ‘dog and 46-22-5 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
N.Y. Giants (11-2, 10-3 ATS) at Dallas (8-5, 6-7 ATS)
The Giants, who have clinched the NFC East title and now set their sights on home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, travel to Texas Stadium to take on the hated Cowboys in a Sunday night clash.
New York tumbled to Philadelphia 20-14 as a 6½-point home chalk, snapping a seven-game SU and ATS run, though the SU winner is now 23-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 25 games (12-1 ATS this season). QB Eli Manning (13 of 27, 123 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was way off his game, even though New York had no turnovers, and the Giants only made it mildly respectable by scoring a TD with just 20 seconds remaining.
Dallas had Pittsburgh bottled up with a 13-3 fourth-quarter lead before falling apart late in a 20-13 loss as a four-point road ‘dog. QB Tony Romo (19 of 36, 210 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs) accounted for four of the Cowboys’ five turnovers, including a deadly INT returned for the touchdown that put Pittsburgh up 20-13 with less than two minutes remaining.
New York has won and covered in the last two clashes between these division rivals, including a 35-14 shellacking as a 9½-points home chalk last month. The Giants are 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 contests, and the favorite is on a 5-2-2 ATS run.
The Giants carry a bundle of ATS hot streaks, including 24-7 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 8-0 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 after a non-cover, 14-2 against winning teams and 22-6 on the highway. The Cowboys have cashed in four straight as a favorite and are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a SU loss, but they are in ATS ruts of 0-7 in December, 1-7 in the NFC East, 3-7 after a non-cover and 3-7 against winning teams.
The under for New York is on upticks of 6-2 in the division and 6-2 with the Giants a road pup, and the under for Dallas is on runs of 4-0 in December, 9-3 after an ATS setback and 5-2 after a SU loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six contests, but the under is 9-4 in the last 13 matchups in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco +6 at MIAMI
San Francisco coach Mike Singeltary is making a difference in the attitude and the play of this team and we'll gladly take the points in this one and play the Niners. San Francisco may not win the game, but this one is coming down to the final two minutes with a field goal winning this one on either side.
San Francisco has just beaten AFC East teams in back-to-back games, going to Buffalo two weeks ago and getting a 10-3 win and then upsetting the Jets last Sunday 24-14 at home as four-point 'dogs. Niners' QB Shaun Hill played a stellar game against New York, going 28-of-39 for 285 yards, two TDs and an INT. And more impressive is the San Francisco defense that held the Jets to just 182 total yards.
Miami caught a huge break last week, getting to play Buffalo in the Skydome in Toronto instead of snowy Buffalo. The Dolphins got the 16-3 win and finally got a spread-cover after four straight non-covers. Miami's defense is controlling the last two outings, not allowing the opposition to get an offensive TD.
This game will be low-scoring and look for it to come down to a key error in the fourth quarter. Grab the points and look for this one to be won by a late FG.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tennessee -3 at HOUSTON
Talk about showing a lack of respect. Tennesee comes into Houston with just one loss this season, and a money-turning 11-2 against the spread record, and they are only laying a field goal!?!?!
We are all about laying the small road chalk today against a Houston team that has shown some moxy by winning 3 in a row, and covering their last 4, but beating terrible teams in Cleveland, and Jacksonville, and edging a fading Green Bay team is not the same as dealing with a contender for this year's Super Bowl trophy.
Agreed, Tennessee was a little flat last week at home against Cleveland, but they still held the Browns without a touchdown, and they did wind up winning the game 28-9.
The Titans dumped the Texans 31-12 on Week 3 of the season, as Tennesee has now won and covered the last 5 series meetings.
More of the same old, same old here, as the Titans can wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the win today.
Mission accomplished!
Play on Tennesee.
5♦ TENNESSEE