Karl Garrett
Minnesota at ARIZONA
You want to see the scoreboard light up this Sunday?
Minnesota-Arizona is your game!
The Vikings are coming off a low-scoring game at Detroit, but the Vikes have been able to ring up 28-points or better in 4 of their last 6 games, and against Arizona's permissive defense, even Tarvaris Jackson should be able to find the end-zone for Minnesota this afternoon.
Arizona has been flying-high points-wise, as the Cardinals have played 7 of their last 8 home games OVER the posted total, and the fact they are primarily a passing team should bode well for some TD's today against Minnesota's soft spot, their passing defense!
The Cardinals have scored 29-points or better in 4 of their last 6 games, and the G-Man likes them to end with around that amount today.
This game has shootout written all over it.
Take the HIGH!
3♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Today's Play
Well, after nine straight free-play winners, I finally tasted defeat Saturday with a loser on Ohio State, which failed to cover against Butler in College Hoops. However, I’m still 14-3 with freebies over the last 17 days. Also, my NFL free-play winning streak reached five with Thursday’s play on the Saints-Bears OVER the total. Let’s make it six straight in the NFL by backing the Cardinals at home against the Vikings.
I know both teams are 8-5, but the Cardinals are 5-1 at home this year (only loss to the Super Bowl champion Giants) and 11-3 at home since coach Ken Whisenhunt took over as coach at the start of last year. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 3-4 on the road, with all three wins coming against sub-.500 teams (Lions, Jaguars, Saints), and they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the highway going back to last year. Not only that, but a scheduling quirk has the Vikings away from home for the fourth time in the last five weeks, going to Tampa Bay then Jacksonville then home to face the Bears then to Detroit last week and now to Arizona.
So given all that – and given the fact that an injury to QB Gus Frerotte has forced Minnesota to reluctantly put the football back in the hands of Tarvaris Jackson – I can’t explain this short number. The only logical theory is the letdown effect with the Cardinals, who clinched the NFC West for the first time ever with last week’s 34-10 rout of the Rams. I could see that as a possibility if not for the fact that Arizona is facing a potential playoff team here and is in the hunt for the #3 seed in the NFC playoffs. Beyond that, I just can’t see Whisenhunt letting off the gas with such a young team (you’d think he’d want his players to keep that winning feeling going right through the end of the season and into the playoffs).
As for the matchup, this one’s pretty easy to figure out. Minnesota, with the best running back in football in Adrian Peterson and the turnover-prone Jackson at the trigger, is going to try like hell to run the football. Problem is, the Cardinals’ defense allows just 86.7 rushing yards per game on its home turf and hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher at home all year. Meanwhile, Arizona is going to do what it always does when it has the football, and that’s chuck it downfield. Well, the Vikes are giving up 243.3 passing yards per game on the road, and while they could improve that figure today if their best defensive feature (their pass rush) gets to Warner, I wouldn’t count on that with sack artist Jared Allen (12½ sacks) dealing with a bum knee and unlikely to play.
Arizona is putting up an astounding 32.3 points and 361.8 yards per game at home, with Warner completing 73 percent of his passes for 301 ypg with 12 TDs and 3 picks. Meanwhile, the Vikings are giving up 25 points and more than 320 yards per game on the road, and last week allowed the Lions’ Daunte Culpepper to post his best passer rating (102.8) of the season by far. Too much to like about the Cardinals in this one, including a very cheap price. Back the home team.
5♦ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Matt Rivers
15-6 comp play run after UCLA on Saturday!
For Sunday take the Bills at the Meadowlands.
There is no doubting that Buffalo has been horrific for the past month plus but the Jets aren't exactly firing away on all cylinders of late and to be laying at least a touchdown is a bit silly.
Brett Favre and the boys from New York had those great wins in New England and Tennessee and ever since have played like absolute dog poo in losses to Buffalo and San Francisco. Yes the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets could and probably will win this game as they are the better team and have a lot more to play for but without any momentum themselves and in cold and windy weather how in the world can you expect Eric Mangini's team to just go out there right now and beat anybody going away!?!?!
JP Losman is expected to start for the Bills and the former Tulane Quarterback is just the backup right now behind the injured Trent Edwards but Losman was a starter in this league and is good enough to do a little something today. The guy is obviously no future Hall of Famer like Favre and will have some issues but let's not think that Favre is exactly going to be squeaky clean and not have a turnover or two.
In the end New York needs this win too badly to not win the game and do boast more weapons but this number is a bit much and I will take my chances with a blossoming star in Marshawn Lynch and the visiting Bills plus this healthy sum.
Andre Gomes
ATL -3.0 vs TAM
We have seen last Monday the power that a home division game has on the NFC South teams. In fact, the teams from this division are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in division home games. This week, Atlanta will face Tampa at home, in a decisive game for both teams, who are both coming from defeats. The Bucs were destroyed at Carolina by the Panthers last Monday by 23-38, in a game where Tampa Bay wasn't able to stop the running game of the Panthers, which even broke a NFL record. I'm going to quote something I've said about that game and how important is the defense of the Bucs for them:
"If you look to injury list of this game, we see 3 players of Tampa in doubt for tonight: Kevin Carter, Jovan Haye and Gaines Adams. These three players are part of the defensive line of the Bucs and they have started all games of Tampa this season. So, we won't have a defensive line of the Bucs at 100% tonight and when we see the Panthers' running game on-fire, this can be a huge problem for the Bucs."
The news aren't good for the Bucs, as DTs Jovan Haye and Chris Hovan are questionable for this game. Neither was able to participate fully in Friday's practice. Now they are going to face a team, who has the second best running offense of the league, with 146.4 yards per game, just behind the Giants. I remember that on the first game between these two teams this season, Tampa defeated at home Atlanta by 24-9, with the Bucs holding RB Michael Turner to a season low 42 yards on 14 carries. The Falcons rushed for 105 yards, but 34 of those yards came on two runs by wide receiver Harry Douglas. For this game, I expect the scenario to be different. First of all, the problems on the DL of the Bucs will make them struggle, especially when the running offense of the Falcons wasn't used a lot last week at New Orleans and so, they will be fresher than never.
The Falcons only had 30 rushes last week against the Saints, tied for their third lowest rushes in a game this season.
"That game demanded throwing the ball a little bit last week," Mularkey said. "We'll do that if we have to. I'm not concerned about it. I think the guys know that's our mentality and that's not going to change."
If we add the fact that Matt Ryan is one of the best QB of the league in home games, with an amazing average of 107.2 QB rating at home, I don't see why Atlanta won't be able to make a lot of damage on this game. The Bucs have been well lately on the offense, by scoring 38, 23 and 23 points on their last 3 games and that has been due to the excellent job of their QB Jeff Garcia, who is coming from a MNF game, where he threw the ball for 321 yards and had 2 TD passes. However, he is questionable for this game and he was limited the whole week on practice. One of the strongest parts of his game is his mobility and with him struggling with a calf injury, the Bucs won't be so effective on the offense.
I expect a good win from the young Falcons in here. This is a revenge game from them and Matt Ryan had his worst game of the season against the Bucs on that game (first NFL road game for him at the time). Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and the revenge game factor will very important in here, as all teams are 34-8 ATS in the last 10 seasons, while revenging a same season loss against an opponents, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) during the second half of the season. Take Atlanta in here.
Matt Fargo
Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Detroit Lions +17
Detroit has obviously yet to win this season but prior to that game against Tennessee, it was playing pretty well at least as far as a winless team can play. It started against Minnesota in a two-point loss and ended with a blown 17-0 lead against Tampa Bay. In between those games were losses by seven, eight, four and nine points and it was feasible any one of those games could have been won. Last week the Lions once again played tough only to fall short against the Vikings again.
The Colts are playing their best football of the season as they have won six straight games but they have been far from dominating. The victory last week over the Bengals was the first in this string that came by more than six points and while the blowout could carry over into this week, it is unlikely. The Colts close the season with division games against Jacksonville and Tennessee and while winning the division is out of the question, those games are big in order to remain in the playoff picture.
Detroit will be without quarterback Daunte Culpepper and that is actually some good news as he has not looked good at all. He did have his best game last week but take away the 70-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson and he was once again below average. Lions offensive coordinator Jim Colletto said he was pleased with the progress of Dan Orlovsky, who has been sidelined the last five weeks with a broken right thumb. The Lions will rely on the running game and the Colts go with a banged up Bob Sanders.
Indianapolis has not been able to run up the score much this season compared to in the past and there are other factors leading to believe it won’t happen again here. One thing to note here is that Lions head coach Rod Marinelli and Colts head coach Tony Dungy coached together in Tampa Bay and remain good friends. Dungy is certainly not going to be giving anything away but as far as running up the score, that is not going to happen. The backdoor, if needed, will remain wide open.
The losing streak for the Lions puts them into a solid contrarian situation. Play on road underdogs after seven or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1983 and is a perfect 3-0 this year. Two of those covers are with the Lions who stayed within the number at Carolina and at Chicago. The Lions are 8-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs over the last three years including a 5-1 ATS mark this season that includes a perfect 4-0 ATS record on the road. 3* Detroit Lions
Ben Burns
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Prediction: Under
Don't look now but the Texans are actually starting to play some solid defense. Last week, they traveled to Lambeau Field and limited the Packers to 21 points, including just seven through the first three quarters. The previous week, in their most recent home game, the Texans held Jacksonville to only 17 points, including just three through the first three quarters. Prior to that, the Texans kept Cleveland to a mere six points, all of which came in the second quarter. Playing at home, the Browns managed just 240 total yards. That means that the Texans are allowing an average of only 14.7 points through their past three games, including only 5.3 through the first three quarters.
Of course, playing strong defense is nothing new to the Titans. Last week, they held the Browns to just nine total points. That marked the 11th time in 13 games in which the Texans have kept their opponent to 17 points or less. In fact, only one team (Jets) has scored more than 21 points against Tennessee all season. In six road games, the Titans are permitting an average of only 10.8 points and 237.7 total yards.
Not surprisingly, the Titans have seen four of their six road games dip below the total. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 10-5 in their 15 road games, dating back to the beginning of last season. Additionally, the Titans have seen the UNDER go a profitable 6-1-1 the last eight times that they played a game with an over/under line ranging from 42.5 to 49.
These teams faced each other back in Week 3 with the Titans rolling to a 31-12 victory. That game finished above the total, which opened at 37.5 and closed at 40. Despite the fact that the Texans are playing better defense now AND despite the fact that the Titans have been better defensively on the road, this week's total has opened a full touchdown higher than the opening number was for the September meeting. I feel that provides us with solid line value. If the line stays at 44 or higher, consider the Under.
Florida Panthers at Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Under
The Canucks were shutout last night. The final score of 3-0 brought the 'under' to 13-5-1 in Canuck games since the beginning of Vancouver. This will be the 19th time that the Canucks played back to back games since the start of the 2007 season but only the sixth time that they did so here in Vancouver. Looking at those previous five games and we find that four of them produced five goals or less. For the season, the Canucks are allowing just 1.5 goals per game at home, while scoring only 2.9 themselves. The Panthers don't score many either, averaging only 2.4 goals per game and just 2.2 through their past five. Four of those five games dipped below the number and the Panthers have now seen the 'under' go 18-9-2 on the season. Consider the Under
Big Al McMordie
Miami v SF
Pick:Miami
At 1 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Miami Dolphins, as we will fade San Francisco, which has won two straight games -- both as an underdog -- against Buffalo and the NY Jets. But since 1980, unrested NFL teams off two dog wins are 26-54 ATS on the road vs. non-division foes, provided they are NOT getting more than 7 points. Look for Miami to win this game handily. Lay the points.
Jimmy Moore
Washington @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati +6.5
The Redskins are a mess right now with only 1 cover in thier last 8 games and that was a half point cover against Detroit. Cincy is terrible but they have not given up on the season yet as evidenced by their strong showing in thier last home game against Philly.
AAA Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
Play:San Francisco 49ers +6
I am not going to try to convince you that the Niners are a better team than the team they will play on Sunday. They are not. Does that make them not worthy of a look. Nope. In fact, this 5-8 team is having fun playing football right now and sometimes that is more than who is the best squad on the field. But let's look at this thing here. The Dolphins beat Buffalo last week in less than stellar playing conditions. Previous to that, they managed a 4 point win verses a very bad Rams team. Prior to that they were manhandled by the Patriots in a game that I bet for good reason. The previous 2 weeks, a 2 point win over Oakland and a 2 point win over Seattle. Wow!! These guys are good!! NOT!! San Francisco comes to Miami as loose as a goose, and they do like their new coach Mike. They have won 3 of their last 4, with their only loss being at Dallas verses a very motivated Cowboy Team. The fact is, they had every reason to lose that one and I had the Cowboys that weekend. The Frisco D has been playing the kind of ball that Mike wants them to, and over their last 3 contests, they have allowed just 96 yards on the ground per game. They are focused, and they are having fun. Have I mentioned that yet? The Home Team really, really, needs to win Sunday. Does that have an affect on this outcome? Nah. The Niners will come to play and they will play hard. Coach Mike will be there watching, and they like him. Did I mention that yet? I can guarantee that money will be pouring on Miami for this one, and Vegas will probably add another Big Buffet because of it.
John Fina
Selection: Indianapolis Colts -17
Put us down on the Indianapolis Colts -17 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. This weekend don’t expect much from Detroit. While Lions’ veteran QB Daunte Culpepper performs quite well against Indianapolis, having completed 23-out of 29 passes for 226 yards along with 2 TDs and a passer rating of 127.9 in 2 starts, a shoulder injury that occurred last week vs. Minnesota will likely have him out of this game. Culpepper initially replaced an injured Dan Orlovsky who was out for 5 games because of a broken thumb. Orlovsky, pending health, will probably start for this game as he was present at Wednesday’s practice where he shared snaps with QBs Drew Stanton and Drew Henson. The Colts’ demand higher expectations this week than do the Lions. With 6 straight wins, QB Peyton Manning has completed 145- of-212 passes for 1,471 yards, 12 touchdowns and a 101.0 passer rating. For the last 4 years, Indy has gone 43-7 when Manning has had at least 2 touchdowns. As for the Lions, Manning has had nine touchdowns and a passer rating of 125.3 going 2-0 against Detroit. In the AFC throughout the season, Manning is ranked second in yards with 3,225 and third in touchdown totals with 22. Additionally, against NFC opponents, RB Joseph Addai has recorded 9 rushing touchdowns in nine career competitions. Colts’ WR Marvin Harrison is looking to secure a 3rd straight 100 yards receiving game vs. Detroit with an additional 4 straight game with a touchdown reception. Fellow WO Anthony Gonzalez goes into this matchup on a career high of 608 yards receiving along with 51 receptions, and TE Dallas Clark enjoys a tie for the NFL‘s first ranked tight end with 15 touchdowns. The Colts are currently averaging 320.1 ypg. The Colts need to win this game, while a Lions loss gets them a better draft pick. We will lay the points with the Superior team that needs to win! Take the Indianapolis Colts -17!
LT Profits
New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders Under 40
The New England Patriots have not exactly been crisp offensively the last two weeks, while the Oakland Raiders have been terrible on offense all year, so do not expect many points on the board this week.
The Patriots have scored a total of 34 points the last two weeks, and while scoring 10 points vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers is forgivable, struggling to put up 24 points vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense does give cause for concern. As if that is not bad enough, quarterback Matt Cassel lost his father this week, and while he will probably play, football may be an afterthought for him right now.
As for the Raiders, they are averaging a pathetic 13.8 points and 255.4 total yards of offense per game this season, and that terrible scoring average has been boosted by some return touchdowns by Johnnie Lee Higgins. You can bet that stopping Higgins will be made a priority by the Patriots, as the normal Oakland offense does not frighten anyone.
Now the Raiders have actually been respectable defensively at home, so look for a relatively tight low scoring affair in here.
Pick: Patriots, Raiders Under 40
By now, just about everyone has heard that NFC South home teams are 24-2 straight up and 10-0 inside the division this season, but we feel that because this trend has become so well known, we are getting an overlay on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers here as they visit the Atlanta Falcons.
Now it may seem strange to call a three-point underdog an overlay, but we feel this game should be closer to a Pick. After all, the Bucs have the superior defense here, and after that atrocious showing at Carolina on Monday, we doubt that the Tampa Bay defense will throw in two clunkers in a row.
The real key to this match-up, however, is that we feel the Tampa running backs will have success on the ground vs. an Atlanta run defense that ranks 28 in the NFL, surrendering a 120.8 rushing yards per game on a very generous 4.9 yards per carry.
When Tampa Bay defeated the Falcons at home 24-9 earlier this season, they rushed for 164 years offensively and they put tons of defensive pressure on young Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan, forcing him into a 13 for 33 performance and just 129 passing yards. Even though this rematch is in Atlanta, we expect a similar performance from the Buccaneers on both sides of the ball.
The end result should be a season sweep that should just about wrap up a playoff spot for Tampa Bay.
Pick: Buccaneers +3
NORM HITZGES
Triple Play--Carolina -7.5 vs Denver
Double Plays
Atlanta -3 vs Tampa
San Francisco +6.5 vs Miami
Dallas/NY Giants Under 45
Single Plays
Houston +3 vs Tennessee
Baltimore -2 vs Pittsburgh
Kansas City +5 vs San Diego
Arizona -3 Minnesota
Washington/Cincinnati Under 36.5
Miami/San Francisco Under 41.5
Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under 34.5
Philadelphia/Cleveland Under 39.5
Indiancowboy
Detroit Lions +17 over Indianapolis Colts
Wow, this is such a big spread. Note, that Orlovsky is likely to start this game as Culpepper is doubtful. But, if you are a Lions fan you want Orlovsky to start as he is far more accurate and frankly more athletic than Culpepper. Stanton is listed as probable as well – if you don’t know who he is – he is a no name QB that the Lions picked up because all of their quarterbacks are hurt. Addai is questionable for Indianapolis. The line opened up at -17 and 45 and has remained steady. The Colts have won 6 straight games as they go for win #10 today at home. Don’t forget though the Lions have covered their last four games on the road including a home cover last week over the Vikings which was my POD. I lean on the points and the Lions here if Orlovsky is the starter but I don’t think that will be announced until closer to game time. Plus, I can see how there could be a backdoor cover as well. But, it is not as if the Lions are not getting any love here as they do have 45% of the public backing. But, the Lions have had solid success covering on the road and I like them here with Orlovsky as he is a much better player overall and I think the Lions will make it interesting and likely lose by 10-13 points here. It's enough for me to take a shot on them as my comp selection.
Wild Bill
Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 (5 units)
Atlanta Falcons -3 (5 units)
San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 (5 units)
Tennessee Titans -3 (5 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 (5 units)
Denver Broncos +7 1/2 (5 units)
New England Patriots -7 (5 units)
New York Giants +3 (5 units)
Bears-New Orleans Saints Over 44 1/2 (5 units) WON
Colts-Detroit Lions Over 44 1/2 (5 units)
Eagles-Cleveland Browns Over 38 1/2 (5 units)
Brian Hansen
Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks lost 2-0 on the road to the Sharks their last time out, but are 16-11 overall to start and I expect them to be sharp in front of the hometown crowd tonight! In fact this has been a bad spot for Minnesota all year as they are a horrible 3-7 when playing against a team with a winning record! Look for ANAHEIM to improve to 3-2 its last 5 when playing with 2 days rest!