Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Ravens -2.5
Baltimore lost at Pittsburgh by 3 points in OT earlier this season. The Ravens are a better football team than they were back then and it will show on their home field Sunday. While both defenses are exceptional (No. 1 and No. 2 in the NFL), Baltimore 's offense has proven to be much more effective and that is why the Ravens get the edge at home today. Pittsburgh ’s offense hasn’t been very good all season and while a lot of that falls on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger - the league’s 23rd-rated passer (80.1) - much of the blame goes to a running game that can’t seem to get going. Heading into this season, the offensive line appeared to be the team's weakness and that has continued to be the case. Baltimore is 5-1 SU and ATS at home this season and a perfect 5-0 ATS in division play. Take the Ravens Sunday.
Alex Grosse
Washington Redskins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Under 36½
Both teams have had a lot of difficulty delivering offensively this season. As a result, they have a combined average of only 28.6 points per game. The Redskins have only managed to put up an average of 10.6 points per game in their past 5 contests. They will likely score more points against the Bengals who have allowed an average of 26.5 points per game to the opposition this season. However, Washington has only managed to score more than 20 points in 5 games this season. The loss of tackle Chris Samuels last week is a big blow to Washington’s offense. Additionally, RT Jon Jansen and Clinton Portis are not 100%. This will limit the Redskins ability to run the ball.
Since Cincinnati got its first win of the season it has had an extreme amount of difficulty finding the end zone. The Bengals have averaged only 7.25 points per game in their last 4, scoring only a field goal in each of their last two games. They are facing the 5th ranked defense in the league. In short, the Bengals will likely not score more than 10 points.
The trends also favour the under. The average amount of points scored in Washington’s last 5 games is only 30.8 points per game and the total exceeded 36 points only once during that stretch. Under is 8-0-1 in Washington’s last 9 and 6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 7 games in December.
The total at 36.5 is extremely low. However, given that there is a serious lack of offense from each team in this matchup, there is a lot of value in betting the under. I honestly can’t see more than 30 points being scored in this one. Bet the under.
Jay Todd
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Play: Under 41
Conditions are likely to be cold and snowy for this one. With that being said, look for both teams to run the ball early and often, as Buffalo does that more than enough without snow. Both teams enter this game coming off losses in which they really struggled to move the football. Expect a very sloppy and close game in this one.
The Bills have scored just three points in each of their last two games. Trent Edwards is out due to injury, leaving things to J.P. Losman. Losman completed just 48% of his passes for 123 yards and an interception. The Jets allow just 83 rushing yards per game, so expect them to force Buffalo to have to open up the passing game in these bad weather conditions.
The Jets are averaging just 15.5 in their last two games, both of which were losses. Buffalo is allowing a modest 18 points per game at home this season. Couple that strong defense with the weather and you have the making for a very low-scoring game.
Both teams rely on running the football and playing sound defense. Expect a very low scoring game. Play the UNDER 41 between the Jets and Bills.
Black Widow
1* on Oakland Raiders +7
The Oakland Raiders are not playing for much, but they are hosting a New England team that is beat up and playing without several key defensive players that you could almost make up a Pro Bowl team with. The Patriots will be playing without Adalius Thomas, Teddy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Jason Webster, Terrance Wheatley and Shawn Crable to name a few on the defensive side of the ball. Then there’s Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren who are each listed as questionable. It’s no wonder the Patriots had to come from behind to beat the Seahawks last week, and lost to the Steelers 33-10 the previous week. Yes, Matt Cassel is getting praised from everyone across the league, but he is also spending a lot of time on his back. Cassel has been sacked 42 times this season, the most of any quarterback in the league. This isn’t the same offensive line as it was under Tom Brady. Maybe they just don’t try as hard for Cassel as they did Brady, or they are just getting too old, but either way this offensive line is getting beaten badly up front. Teams can come with blitzes all game because opposing defenses don’t have to worry about the Patriots running the ball as their run-game has been nearly non-existent since Laurence Maroney went down. New England may be the better team despite all these injuries, but they are not a touchdown better than the Raiders here. New England is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) in the second half of the season since 1992. Oakland hangs tough Sunday, perhaps pulling off the win. Take the Raiders and the points.
Matt Fargo
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Play: Detroit Lions +17
Detroit has obviously yet to win this season but prior to that game against Tennessee, it was playing pretty well at least as far as a winless team can play. It started against Minnesota in a two-point loss and ended with a blown 17-0 lead against Tampa Bay. In between those games were losses by seven, eight, four and nine points and it was feasible any one of those games could have been won. Last week the Lions once again played tough only to fall short against the Vikings again.
The Colts are playing their best football of the season as they have won six straight games but they have been far from dominating. The victory last week over the Bengals was the first in this string that came by more than six points and while the blowout could carry over into this week, it is unlikely. The Colts close the season with division games against Jacksonville and Tennessee and while winning the division is out of the question, those games are big in order to remain in the playoff picture.
Detroit will be without quarterback Daunte Culpepper and that is actually some good news as he has not looked good at all. He did have his best game last week but take away the 70-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson and he was once again below average. Lions offensive coordinator Jim Colletto said he was pleased with the progress of Dan Orlovsky, who has been sidelined the last five weeks with a broken right thumb. The Lions will rely on the running game and the Colts go with a banged up Bob Sanders.
Indianapolis has not been able to run up the score much this season compared to in the past and there are other factors leading to believe it won’t happen again here. One thing to note here is that Lions head coach Rod Marinelli and Colts head coach Tony Dungy coached together in Tampa Bay and remain good friends. Dungy is certainly not going to be giving anything away but as far as running up the score, that is not going to happen. The backdoor, if needed, will remain wide open.
The losing streak for the Lions puts them into a solid contrarian situation. Play on road underdogs after seven or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1983 and is a perfect 3-0 this year. Two of those covers are with the Lions who stayed within the number at Carolina and at Chicago. The Lions are 8-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs over the last three years including a 5-1 ATS mark this season that includes a perfect 4-0 ATS record on the road. 3* Detroit Lions
Maddux FREE Pick:
Carolina Panthers