Sunday Service Plays

LT Profits

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants Under 37.5

The New York Giants were unable to establish a running game vs. the Dallas Cowboys last week, but the rushing attack should get a boost with the return of Brandon Jacobs this week vs. the Carolina Panthers.

This does not necessarily mean that the Giants will go back to lighting up the scoreboard though. You see, the Carolina defense is ranked 22 in the NFL against the run allowing 4.4 yards per carry, so if Jacobs is anywhere near close to top form, Earth, Wind and Fire can run the ball all day, resulting in time consuming drives.

Sure, Eli Manning will complete his passes, particularly through play-action. However, the Panthers are much stingier vs. the pass than vs. the run, so if the Giants can hold the ball for long periods and keep the Carolina offense on the sideline, this is just what they will do.

Speaking of the Carolina offense, it has not been nearly as potent on the road as it has at home this season. The Panthers are 3-3 straight up on the road, but all three wins came vs. teams with losing records, and in their three losses vs. the better teams, they managed a total of 41 points (13.7 points per game).

Besides, the Giants defense did play well in the loss to Dallas, and Jake Delhomme is turnover-prone when faced with pressure. Thus, we are looking for a 17-14 type game here, safely below this posted total.

Pick: Panthers, Giants Under 37.5

Carlo Campanella

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

The Dolphins continue to put wins in the book, turning last year’s 1-15 season into a 9-5 record to this point of the year. They remain tied for the lead in the AFC East with the Farve-led Jets and Bradyless-Patriots and need to avoid looking past Kansas City this weekend while awaiting a Division title showdown in New York next Sunday. Miami finds themselves in the road favorite role against the Chiefs despite owning a 1-6 ATS mark during their last seven games. In fact, it’s just the fourth time since the 2004 season that these Dolphins are road chalk, previously posting a 1-2 ATS record. Even with Kansas City totally out of the Playoff race, they are still trying to play spoiler, coming off a 1-point loss, 22-21, to Division rival San Diego last Sunday. With Miami a winless 0-8 ATS as a favorites between 3.5 to 9.5 points and the host on this series owning an AWESOME 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS record, we'll take the points with the hosting Chiefs, playing without the postseason pressure plaguing these Dolphins.

7* Play On Kansas City

Ben Burns

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Over

The total for this game has fallen from its opening number and has currently dipped below the key number of 44. I feel that this provides us with some value on the 'over.'

Games played in December are often lower-scoring than games played earlier in the season. Inclement weather can be one of the factors leading to lower scores for the games played in the late fall and winter. Another reason for the lower-scoring games at this time of year is that the games are typically more meaningful. With playoff berths often at stake, many coaches tend to become slightly more conservative.

Neither of those factors are in play this afternoon though. For starters, the game is being played indoors, so weather isn't an issue. Additionally, the teams have a combined record of just 7-21. In other words, in terms of playoff implications, the game is completely meaningless.

The 49'ers have seen the 'over' go 7-6-1 on the season. That includes a 2-1 mark when listed as favorites and a tidy 3-0-1 record when facing a team with a losing record. The earlier meeting between these teams had an over/under line of 43. That game easily finished above the number. The 49'ers jumped out to a 35-3 halftime lead and coasted to a 35-16 victory.

The Rams enter the week with the second worst scoring defense in the league. Through 14 games, they're allowing an average of 29.8 points per game. While the offense has admittedly struggled, the Rams did show some signs of life on that side of the ball last week. They still lost by a score of 23-20 to Seattle though. Counting that game as a 'push,' the Rams have now seen the 'over' go 8-3-2 their last 13 games played in December and 7-4-1 the last 12 times that they faced a team with a losing record. With nothing more than pride to play for, look for both offenses to open things up and for the final combined score to prove high-scoring than most are expecting. Consider the Over

Tom Stryker

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -6.5

Denver will know the result of the San Diego versus Tampa Bay game before this contest even kicks off. If the Chargers upset the Buccaneers, the Broncos will need this victory to clinch the AFC West crown. If the Bolts win and the Ponies lose, the two division rivals will meet at San Diego next week to determine the division champion.

After last Sunday’s tough loss at New York, Buffalo will be glad to see quarterback Trent Edwards back in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, it might not be enough to propel the Bills to victory. As a guest facing a greater than .500 non-division opponent, Buffy is a soft 18-49 SU and 26-37-4 ATS including a woeful 5-20 SU and 7-17-1 ATS in this set coming off a division game. In addition, non-division teams that visit Denver off a division affair are just 9-43 SU in this set dating back to 1980. If our “play against” guest enters off an ATS win, this situation crashes to a dismal 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS! Buffalo fits both sets.

Amazingly, the Orange Crush stand 5-18-1 ATS in their last 24 at home including a pitiful 0-6-1 ATS this season. Head Coach Mike Shanahan doesn’t want his troops misfiring this close to the playoffs. Even if San Diego loses at Tampa Bay, Shanahan will want to crank his offense up a notch in order to give them some confidence. Take Denver!

WUNDERDOG

Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee +2

This may be a first. The Tennessee Titans, who sport the best record in the NFL at 12-2, are a slight dog at home. While I haven't been a big proponent of the Tians this season, feeling they have been the beneficiary of a soft schedule and a great turnover ratio. But, they continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL, not getting any respect as the lines in their games have not been inflated. Their loss at Houston last week plays into a strange line this week. And, Pittsburgh's five-game winning streak, capped by a win over Baltimore last week also plays a factor. But, should the Titans really be a home dog? I think not! The fact that their opponent is off a win and they are off a loss makes me like them even more. Most got a chance to see Pittsburgh's big defense and win last week, while all that stands out from the Titans game is that they lost. Here is why there is value here. The end of the Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore game last week ended with a controversial Pittsburgh TD. Ifit was ruled the other way and the Steelers lost, what would this line be? The Titans out-gained the Texans last week by 100 yards and lost by a point. If those two games switched, what would change? The teams wouldn't, but the perception would and that is what drives the line. There is value here because if those changes occurred, Tennessee would be a -3 in this game instead of a +2. The Steelers have now had to bring it three consecutive weeks. First they played the Patriots, then the Cowboys and finally the Ravens. Their most emotional and physical game was last week. They now have to bring it a fourth-straight week, this time against the Titans who will be loaded for bear at home with the playoff-like atmosphere and drive after laying low for a couple weeks. I see a lot of value on the Titans who are 6-1 at home and will be ready to bring it in this one.

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

NEP -8 vs ARI

As regular followers know we like to look for mismatches and cash in on blowouts in this weekly write-up and its something that has served us well in this column throughout the season. Last week we delivered again with the Patriots as they blew out the Raiders in Oakland with a 23 point margin of victory! We stay with the same concept (and in fact, the same team!) this week as we go with the Pats again and, in doing so, we get to fade a team that is over-rated. Were going against the Cardinals who have simply been a very fortunate team this season because of the weak division they play in. Playing in the NFC West, where the other three teams have a total of 10 wins in 42 games has certainly played a key role in getting the Cards to the playoffs. Now Arizona must face a tough team from a tough division and they must travel cross country to do it. The Cardinals has a history of struggling in games in the Eastern Time Zone and that has continued again this season. Also, Arizona showed their weakness by getting blown out by three touchdowns last week by a Vikings team that was without their preferred #1 at quarterback. Also, the Cardinals were at home for that game! Now, with travel included, the Cards are in a real tough spot here. Arizona is just 8-6 on the season and theyve covered just one of their six games as a dog! Additionally, the Cardinals will be playing their seventh game this season as a dog. In the dog role this season they have covered just ONCE so far! The Patriots bring back a lot of confidence from a successful West Coast trip as they defeated the Seahawks and Raiders in back to back weeks. Even though it was a long trip back to the East Coast for them, they are growing with confidence and happy to be home. They have the AFC East title in their sights and are building up momentum at the proper time. As for the Cardinals, they already have the NFC West title but want they don?t have is confidence or momentum especially playing in New England. As a result, the Patriots dominate this one! Lay the points with New England!

Evan Altemus

Six point two team teaser

HOUSTON TEXANS -1 AND NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -1.5

Houston is available at -7 almost everywhere so tease them down to -1. The Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.Matt Schaub has played two excellent games since returning from injury, and the combination of Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson are one of most explosive running back/wide receiver duos in the league.Houstons defense though has been the key to their turnaround.The Texans young pass rushers are finally getting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run.Oakland is a complete mess, and even one of their assistant coaches have already bailed to join Lane Kiffin in Tennessee.Oaklands defense wasnt able to slow down New England last week, so they wont have much success stopping Houston either.

New England has a great situational advantage over Arizona this weekend.The Cardinals are beginning to rest their players for the playoffs. At least five starters arent even making the trip to the Northeast. In addition, as many as six other starters might not even play. This game is a must win for the Patriots in order to stay in the playoff race.Arizona has been awful in road games to the eastern part of the U.S., and that trend will continue in this game.The sportsbooks are very afraid of a teaser in this game, which is why they are beginning to move the line from -7.5 to -9.Whenever books move the line off of 7.5 immediately to 9, it means that they are taking heavy teaser action from sharp bettors.

Mike Wynn Sports

Carolina @ New York

Carolina at the Giants has all you could want in a regular season match up. The two best teams in the NFC with identical 11-3 records play this one Sunday night for the coveted home field advantage throughout the playoffs. These two teams come into this one headed in opposite directions as the Giants, who looked invincible a couple of weeks, have now lost 2 games in a row while the Carolina Panthers seemingly have found their stride the last couple of weeks. So let’s take a closer look at both teams and we’ll start with the visiting Carolina Panthers.

Carolina as I mention has won their last 3 games in a row and the running back tandem of Williams & Stewart have really been the key averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Carolina is a team that needs to throw the ball to beat you and when they can they are a very effective squad with play action and deep threat Steve Smith. Jake Delhomme is an adequate QB but he not the going to carry a team with his arm. Delhomme has 14 touchdowns this season but also 12 interceptions and the Panthers are certainly a better team when Delhomme isn’t asked to do too much. With the running game clicking the offense has looked good but the defense has to be a bit of a concern for John Fox. Panthers defense played well at home against Denver but prior to that they’ve given up 23, 31, and 45 points. Carolina run defense on the road giving up 132 yards per game on the ground, and they’ll be tested here against a Giants squad that averages 162 rushing yards per game at home and they’ll probably be getting Brandon Jacobs back in the line up for this one. The keys for Carolina will be the running games. If Carolina can get the ground game going against the Giants and keep the Giants from running all over them they’ll have a great shot at winning this one.

The NY Giants after being every bit the World Champs this season have suddenly looked beatable. Since losing Plaxico Burress for the season the Giants have lost two straight and Giants ground game was grounded against Dallas last Sunday racking up just 72 yards. Brandon Jacobs did miss last Sunday’s game against Dallas and if they can get him back in the line up Sunday it’ll be a big boost to the Giants offense. If the Giants get the running game going and work the play action they’ll be just fine. Giants defense has been good overall and very good at home only allowing 13.9 points per game, and if they can stuff the Panther running game and force Carolina into long yardage situations it’ll be a long day for Jake Delhomme.

Bottom line on this game is who will control the trenches and run the ball effectively. My guess is that the Giants will get the running game going with Jacobs back and look much better than they have the last two weeks. But don’t count Carolina out in this one. The Panthers are a terrific 21-7 ATS road underdog when getting 7 points or less, but this team is just 3-3 straight up on the road this season. With the line at 3 or less I think you have to give the edge to the home team in this one Sunday night.

Platinum Plays

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans

Each of these teams have clinched their respective divisions; the Steelers, the AFC North and the Titans, the AFC South. With homefield advantage at stake throughout the playoffs, this game looms large for both teams. If the Steelers can get a road win over Tennessee, they would gain the advantage over the Titans to play all their playoff games at Heinz Field which would be a distinct advantage. The Steelers are coming off a big (13-9) win over division rival, the Baltimore Ravens, which the outcome was ultimately decided on a controversial replay overturn of an official’s call on the field which was ruled a touchdown to give Pittburgh the lead rather than having 4th and inches inside the Baltimore one yard line with a decision to make of either going for the win or playing for overtime. The Titans are coming off a road loss to the Houston Texans and maybe the bigger story coming from this game was not the one point road loss to Houston but, a late injury to Titans defensive line, DT Albert Haynesworth may have a bigger impact than the result of this game. The Titans disdained a late 49 yard field goal and went for it on a 4th and 3 from the Texans 32 yard line but Kerry Collins pass sailed just over the fingertips Justin McCareins fingertips securing the win for the Texans. The decision to forego the field goal was a curious one by head coach Jeff Fisher considering Tennesee’s kicker, Rob Bironas has a strong leg. Now, homefield advantage throughout the playoffs may be as fleeting as the Collins to McCareins pass but, more importantly for the Titans is to have Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch healthy and up to speed for the playoffs.

The Steelers (11-3) have had a miraculous year pulling out several games with late game heroics to put themselves in a position to secure homefield throughout the playoffs. They’ve also survived and played through injuries on offense and contributions from QB Byron Leftwich and RB Mewelde Moore helped the Steelers through some tough times. However, the Steelers defense can take their share of credit for the teams success this season as the zone-blitz master, Dick LeBeau has a healthy unit that leads the NFL in overall defense giving up 13.7 points per game. LB’s James Harrison (15 sacks) and LaMarr Woodley (12 sacks) and the return to health of hard hitting and defensive leader, S Troy Polamalu has made this a unit to be feared.

The Titans (12-2) may be the surprise team of the NFL this year however, an opening loss in the playoffs would definitely take some of the luster off their 2008 success. Tennessee wins by playing fundamental and old school football. They beat you up by running the ball with rookie RB Chris Johnson and big load LenDale White and pass when they have to. The selection of Johnson with the 24th pick in the first round was mocked by the so called draft experts however, he’s delivered 1159 yards, a 4.9 rushing average along with 8 TD’s and was named to this years Pro Bowl team. Veteran QB Kerry Collins has been efficient in throwing the ball (11 TD’s / 7 ints) but, rarely throws for 200 yards in a game and shouldn’t have to if the Titans are in form. Tennessee’s defense ranks second (14.1 pts/gm) to only Pittsburgh in the NFL and are big and physical and it all starts up the middle with the mammoth Haynesworth as he is such an important part of the stop unit. This team is built for success in the playoffs with their impressive rushing game and defense and Fisher has done a masterful job in guiding this team over the years and is one of the most respected coaches in the NFL.

Better send the children to the other room for this game because it’s going to be hard-hitting and physical, much like last weeks Pittsburgh-Baltimore game. The opening line on this game was Tennessee - 1 with a total of 34½ but, has switched sides with Pittsburgh being favored by 2 with the same 34½ total. Pittsburgh is going to be able to pass the ball and the Titans will be able to run against the Steelers. For those reasons, I’m going to go against the grain on this game and predict this one is going over the total of 34½. Good Luck.

Razor Sharp Sports

Arizona @ New England

With two weeks to go in the NFL there is still plenty of playoff spots up for grabs and plenty of positioning to go. Two of the teams that will more than likely be extending their season into January do battle this week as the Arizona Cardinals take on the New England Patriots. The Cardinals have already wrapped up their division and more than likely will be the #4 seed in the NFC after their loss to the Vikings last week. As for the Patriots, they could still win their division, they could still be a wildcard team or they could still not make the playoffs. Looking at these teams and there are plenty of similarities, especially on offense. Both teams are heavily passing teams, that have struggled to find a running game. Both teams QBs have put up numbers that have them in consideration for the league MVP and both have All-Star duos at WR that can take over games. Lets take a look at both teams a little closer.

First of all we have the NFC West Champion Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have taken advantage of playing in the weakest division in the NFL and have wrapped up their first division title since moving to Arizona. Still the Cards have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and with the Pats here this week and finishing up against Seattle and having very little to play for, they could end up 8-8 or 9-7 and really not playing the best football down the stretch when you want to be. The veteran QB Kurt Warner won the starting job over matt Leinart at the beginning of the season and has put up what may be his 3rd MVP season of his career. He is first in the NFL in completion percentage, among starters. He is second in both passing yards and QB rating and third in TD passes. His top targets are All-Pro WRs Larry Fitzgerald (88 catches for 1200 yards and 9 TDs) and Anquan Boldin (89-1038 and 11 TDs). He can also go to a third man in Steve Breaston (71-909 and 2 TDs). The rushing attack continues to struggle. Veteran Edgerin James lost his starting spot to rookie Tim Hightower. Neither runner has run for over 400 yards this season. Last week the Cardinals were held to just 43 yards rushing on 7 carries. Offensively the Cardinals are 2nd in the NFL in Scoring at 27.6 points per game. On defense, the Cardinals have also really struggled down the stretch. They have given up 35 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games and are giving up 25.6 points per game that ranks 28th in the league.

Arizona’s opponent, the New England Patriots have plenty to play for. Unlike last year when they headed into the last two weeks of the season at 14-0, this year they are 9-5 and in a 3 way tie for the division lead and also in a 3 way tie for the final wildcard spot. At the beginning of the season, the question was if the Patriots could make another run like they had last year. When Tom Brady went down in week 1, the question changed to “Can Matt Cassel lead this team?”. Overall, that answer has been yes. Cassel for the year has completed nearly 64% of his passes for 3270 yards with 18 TDs and 11 ints. Like Warner, Cassel has a pair of All-Pros to throw to in WRs Wes Welker (league leading 102 catches for 1071 yards and 2 TDs) and Randy Moss (67-908 and 10 TDs). Like Arizona, the Patriots have struggled to find a consistent ground game. Sammie Morris leads the team in rushing with 554 yards. The Patriots have had only 3 100-yard rushing games out of one of their backs 3 times this year. The Patriots defense seems to have lost a step from last year also. Last year they finished 4th in the league in scoring at 17.1 points per game. This year, that number is 21.6 and is 15th in the NFL.

With these two teams playing, you have to look to a high scoring affair. Both teams will put the ball in the air and neither has shown that they can consistently stop their opponents. The one thing that would keep me wary of the play on the total is the weather forcast. The early forcast is showing rain and snow mixed and windy, which isn’t ideal for the passing games. Still if the weather clears a little, I stil lthink the play is the OVER. Take ARIZONA/NEW ENGLAND OVER the total of 45.

King Creole Sports

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

**UNDER** the TOTAL

This play had a LOT more value when the opening line of 41 came out. Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET subscribers received this one on Wednesday. Hopefully, they were able to play it before the major line moved occurred based on the potentially poor weather forecasts for Kansas City on Sunday. Even with the OU Line move of 3.5 or more points, it's still worthy of a small play... or perhaps consider throwing it in a teaser!

Our H-O-T Dolphins (now 1-7 O/U in their last 8 games) with the killer defense have not allowed a touchdown in three straight games now, so there’s basically no other way to go into this one. Miami games have seen an averaged combined point total of only 23.3 PPG in their last 3. They’re not scoring a lot either on offense, as they have been held to 16, 16, and 14 points. They qualify in a ‘2008-specific’ System which has gone 1-6 O/U for all NFL teams off 3 straight UNDERS... an an ATS loss in their last game.

They also qualify in another System that’s gone 0-4-1 O/U this year mentioned on page three of the Tipsheet (ALL division road favs of 5 < pts playing off a SU win).

The Chiefs also qualify in couple Systems which pertain to this season only. Like 1-6 O/U for all dogs of < 10 points playing in the 2nd of BB HG off a SU loss.... and 0-4 O/U for all teams off a SU home dog loss of 3 or less points.

Now, let’s pull back and look at some great UNDER Systems over the last 9 seasons. Kansas City is indeed off BB losses in a row... but they got the cash (as in ATS win) in EACH of em.
0-5-1 O/U last 3 years for all NFL underdogs playing off BB SU losses... but BB ATS wins.

When these two divisions (AFC East vs AFC West), the reults usually follow an UNDER pattern within certain parameters. 3-12 O/U since 2002 for all AFC WEST teams off an ATS win when HOSTING an opponent from the AFC EAST division.... and 1-9 O/U in the 2nd half of the season.

We mentioned that the hot Dolphins have really stepped it up on defense lately, and as a result... they are active in a nice UNDER System: 2-14-1 O/U since 1999 for all NFL road teams who are off 3 straight wins in a row in which they allowed 12 or less points in EACH of those 3 games.

Dave Cokin

Chargers @ Buccaneers
Play: Bucs -3'

Free opinion for Sunday is the Tampa Bay Bucs. They have not played well the last two weeks, but getting Jeff Garcia back under center will make a difference today. The Chargers are still alive, but just barely, and I believe they can begin reserving their tee times after this game. San Diego is notoriously ugly traveling coast to coast and the fact is they've been a pretty lousy team all season. They've won a couple in a row coming into this contest, but beating the hapless Raiders and getting a miracle rally to nip the Chiefs is hardly reason to believe they're suddenly back to being a high level team. Tampa isn't exactly the blowout type, but I think they've got enough to cover this spot. Bucs minus the points.

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Detroit Lions

It's getting close to 'Now or Never' time for the Lions as they look to avoid the enigma of being the NFL's first team to go 0-16 in the same season. Rod Marinelli’s troops have played with more intensity the past two weeks than at anytime this season. The Lions have cashed each of the last three tickets in this series and will come with everything they’ve got. With winless dogs in the NFL 19-8 ATS from Game Eleven out, we'll stay at home with the Lions in the den here today.

James Patrick Sports

Texans vs. Raiders

Our selection in Sunday NFL action is Oakland Raiders as they play host to the Houston Texans in the Black Hole. The Raiders put up some points last week as they had been held under 17 points in 8 of their past 10 games. Texans off an emotional win over Tennessee but we expect their currant run of 4 straight wins, a franchise record, to be challenged by the Black & Silver in this game. Texans are 0-7 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992.