SHARPS REPORT
BALTIMORE AT DALLAS: There was early sentiment on Baltimore +5 at the opener. The line came down to +4 and has stayed there ever since it was clear that Tony Romo would be able to play for Dallas. The total hasn't moved much. A lot of sharps went against Dallas last week with the Giants and lost, so they're not as gung-ho on Baltimore as they might have been otherwise. A lot of those same guys had the Ravens vs. Pittsburgh too. It's worth noting that the line stopped at +4 rather than coming all the way down to a field goal.
PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE: The sharps were all over the Steelers here, moving them from +1 all the way up to -2. That's not quite as big a move as it seems because ties are so rare. But, the Wise Guys clearly think Pittsburgh is the better team right now by a good bit. The Titans have been inconsistent over the past month, while the Steelers keep finding ways to win. When the game is a virtual pick-em, "finding a way to win" means covering the spread. The total has come down a tick from 34.5 to 34. If the weather is going to be bad, more Under money will come in on game day.
MIAMI AT KANSAS CITY: It's amazing that the Unders keep getting hit in Miami games every week...but the opening line won't adjust! The opener here was 42 on the total. It's now down to 39 or even 38 in some places. Every week! I'm not a totals guy, and even I've noticed that the sharps are hitting every Miami Under. The team side line opened at -4 and came down to -3.5. That's some support for the home dog. It didn't come all the way down to three though. And, if it did, a lot of Miami money would probably come in because finding a way to win the game will probably result in a push at worst. Miami has been winning these types of games, and has to keep winning to make the playoffs. It looks like the opener had a point of "need" factored in, and the sharps took a shot that it was a shade too high. The totals guys LOVED the Under at the early number. If the weather's bad, more Under money may come in on Sunday.
ARIZONA AT NEW ENGLAND: The dog and Under got the limited money that has come in on this one. Arizona was +8 at the opener, and it's down to +7.5 now. The total has fallen from 46 to 45. Based on how these teams have been playing lately, the Under doesn't make a lot of sense. I'm guessing that was based on preliminary weather forecasts. It was snowing in Las Vegas and Reno this week. So, people had weather on their minds, and bet any possibilities for weather on Sunday. They can always buy off of it if they need to. Note that New England is in the teaser window that crosses both the 7 and the 3 when you move the line six points on a two-teamer. Those haven't been as strong this year as in the past. But, a playoff contender in this kind of spot is going to get some attention.
CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: There was a big move here on the Under, as an opener of 35 came all the way down to 32. That was based on a combination of bad quarterbacking and weather potential based on what I was told. If you watched Monday Night's game, you know the Cleveland offense hasn't scored a TD in several quarters. Early money also came in on the Bengals at +3. You have to pay extra juice to get the field goal now. Some places may drop the line to 2.5 because NO money is coming in on Cleveland. That might trigger some Browns money. It might not!
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: There was some Under interest here as well, with an opener of 40 dropping to 38.5. I saw some early support for Philadelphia at -4.5. But, not many places are settling at -5, so there must be some love for the Redskins at that price. Given all the games in the Northeast or Midwest this week, it looks like the sportsbooks will be rooting for a lot of Overs. That's normally not the case. The public bets Overs, but won't do that if all the pregame shows are talking about horrible weather. They'll jump on the Under bandwagon at worse prices than the sharps got.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS: Here's a total that fell five points even though the game is indoors! The opener here was 48, which is inexplicable given how San Francisco has been playing lately. They've been bringing great defensive efforts under head coach Mike Singletary, but the offense has struggled to move the ball. Sharps pounded Under 48, Under 47, Under 46, Under 45, Under 44, and all the half point markers in between. We're currently seeing 43. Not much action on the team side. Sharps like taking San Francisco as a dog, but are hesitant to lay points given all the road games they've been playing lately. It's just amazing that the oddsmaker consultant types could miss a late season total by this much in a dome game.
ATLANTA AT MINNESOTA: Wait, it happened again! The opener here of 47 is all the way down to 43.5. That's not quite as bad as San Francisco, St. Louis. But, in any other week, it would be newsworthy. Tavaris Jackson tends to play lower scoring games than Gus Frerotte (though he had a big game in Arizona last week). Sharps are taking a shot that it's going to happen again here. The Falcons played a low scoring game vs. Tampa Bay last week indoors. Maybe the Falcons are getting too conservative with a playoff spot on the line. I can't recall a week in quite some time where the sharps where THIS heavily invested on totals plays. Sportsbooks will need some special teams and defensive points to bail themselves out this week. The team side line has been at Minnesota -3, -120 most of the week. The Vikings are getting most of the money. Oddsmakers know that if they lift the line to -3.5 they'll get exposed to a possible disaster when Atlanta money comes in. The public will really have to hit Minnesota hard to move that line off the three.
NEW ORLEANS AT DETROIT: Not much action here. Most of the sharps I'm talking with are considering Detroit because the Lions are trying to avoid a winless season while the Saints now have nothing to play for. They haven't acted yet in hopes that the public will take the line off the seven over the weekend. The public sees Detroit as horrible, and New Orleans as a team that kills horrible opponents! It's hard to know now if this is a game the public will be paying attention to because there will be so little media attention. It may just sit at seven because it's easy to visualize one-sided action at either 6.5 or 7.5.
CAROLINA AT NY GIANTS: Another game in a cold climate, and another big Under move. The total opened at 40, and is down now to 37.5. Remember, this has been time changed to prime time, making game time temperatures even colder. The Giants have been getting support at -3...which has increased the juice from -110 to -125 or so. The public tends to bet favorites, and to bet the Giants, so we could see that line move off the three late Sunday. Sharps will probably look for a four before buying back. They do like the Giants to bounce back and play well after a couple of bad outings. The totals guys are really pleased with their positions at anything Under 38 or more.
NY JETS AT SEATTLE: Big support for the dog and Under here. The Jets opened at -5.5, but the line is down to -3.5 now in most places I see. It probably won't make it all the way to -3 because sharps would buy back in strong at that number to lock in their middles. New York hasn't been playing well since the upset of Tennessee, and was lucky to beat Buffalo last week. Given losses to San Francisco and Oakland on other West Coast trips, it was surprising this number came so high. The total opened at 46 and is now down to 43. Not to beat a dead horse...but the casino's are so one-sided on totals plays its ridiculous.
HOUSTON AT OAKLAND: Not much interest here. A "feeler" opener of Houston -7.5 was bet down to -7 quickly. It's stayed there the whole way. The opener was testing affection for Houston after their recent hot run. Not enough affection to lay the hook on the road! Not much going on with the total here because Oakland isn't a city where weather matters.
BUFFALO AT DENVER: Support for the dog and Under here, but not as big as we've seen in other games. Buffalo was +7 at the start, but is now +6.5. I should say that's more anti-Denver sentiment than support for the dog. Denver's so inconsistent that you just can't trust them to lay big numbers. The total has come down from 46.5 to 45. If the forecast is bad on Sunday, the total will come down even further.
SAN DIEGO AT TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened at -3, and got hit so hard early that sportsbooks moved to 3.5 to keep from getting too one-sided out of the gate. It was clear that the sentiment was going to be for the Bucs against the lame duck visitor. The longer you stick at -3, the bigger your exposure later in the week if the public comes in too. Sometimes sportsbooks will take a position and live with it. That was going to be too risky here. The sharps loved Tampa Bay at -3, and there hasn't been enough support on San Diego +3.5 to bring the line back. The total has come down from 43.5 to 42.5
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: Fitting that we have another big totals move to finish off the week. This one opened at 45 because Green Bay has been playing high scoring games lately. It's all the way down to 40.5 or 41 as I write this. It's another cold weather city with an unfriendly forecast for scoring. Oddsmakers seemed to misread this across the board this week. The Bears opened at -6 but are down to -4...so the sharps have really hit the Dog and Under here. That's a common theme for the week too. Tough to win big in bad weather. And, the Bears aren't really a blowout team anyway unless they get turnover breaks.
SportsInsights
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Miami Dolphins stay relatively close to the elite NFL teams and beat the teams they "should." What a turnaround from a year ago! The Dolphins continue to surprise most people and win. Or is it a surprise??! This week, a big 67% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) are taking the Dolphins over the KC Chiefs. It looks like the Public is jumping on the Dolphins' bandwagon. In addition, the "betting Public" typically overvalues the motivational value of teams positioning themselves for the playoffs.
Although the Dolphins have been winning, a quick scan shows that three of their more recent wins have been by a total of 11 points. One of our offshore contacts, a sportsbook risk manager, told us that some "early big money" on the Chiefs drove the line down. Even with an overwhelming number of bets landing on the Dolphins, the line has moved from KC +4 down to KC +3.5. That is a huge move off of the "key 4" number. SportsInsights' (SIs) analytical tools confirm the existence of "Smart Money" moving the line in the direction opposite of the Public's betting. Let's take the side of "Smart money" and "Bet Against the Public" on the home dog.
Years ago, SIs published the results of academic research over a long 20-year period that showed a bias for home underdogs to cover the spread -- late in the NFL season -- and into the playoffs. SportsInsights' research shows that this bias continues to work. You can still grab KC +4 at SIA. Most books have moved down to +3.5 so grab the +4 soon.
Kansas City Chiefs +4
New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks
A few weeks ago, the Jets were touted as one of the best of the AFC. That "aura or shine" is still on the Jets as they are tied for first place in the AFC East at 9-5. The Jets play the lowly 3-11 Seattle Seahawks this game, in what looks like an "easy" game for a potential playoff-bound team. Or is it such an easy pick? The "Big Money" doesn't think so.
Early "Sharp money" pushed the line towards the Seahawks, even though a big 70% of bets are landing on the visiting favorite Jets. The Jets opened as 5.5 point favorites at CRIS but the line has moved down to 4 at most books. The "Smart money" has seen a Jets team struggle at 3-2 over their last five games as they drive towards the playoffs. This is NOT the performance you would expect to see from an elite NFL team. We'll "Bet Against the Public" and join the "Big Money." Bodog and SIA still have Seattle +4.5.
Seattle Seahawks +4.5
Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders
The Houston Texans have been playing great football, putting together a four-game winning streak, capped by its huge win against Tennessee last week. The "hot money" is all over Houston as they take slim playoff aspirations to Oakland against the lowly 3-11 Raiders.
We like the Raiders at home, plus the touchdown for several reasons.
The Raiders are a big home dog, late in the season.
Any playoff hopes that Houston may have are overvalued by the Public.
The Public loves Houston in this game, to the tune of almost 90%. Fade the Public.
CRIS opened at Oakland +7.5 but the current line everywhere is +7, even with most bets on Houston. Go with "Smart money."
Oakland has lost three games in a row, the last two by a combined 83-33. Ouch. Buy low!
Houston has reeled off four wins in a row. Sell high!
You should be able to grab Oakland +7 at low vig right now. The line may hop back up to +7.5 if you wait closer to game-time as the Public continues to pound Houston.
Oakland Raiders +7
SPORTS ADVISORS
Pittsburgh (11-3, 8-6 ATS) at Tennessee (12-2, 11-3 ATS)
The surging Steelers head to LP Field to take on the AFC-leading Titans in a game that will decide the #1 seed and home-field advantage in the upcoming AFC playoffs.
Pittsburgh stunned Baltimore 13-9 as a three-point road underdog, driving 92 yards for a last-minute TD to earn its fifth straight win and fourth straight cover as it clinched the AFC North title. QB Ben Roethlisberger (22 of 40, 246 yards, 1 TD) did little until leading the game-winning drive, capped by a 4-yard TD pass to Santonio Holmes. But the Steelers’s top-ranked defense was sterling once again, allowing just 202 total yards and picking off Joe Flacco twice as both teams finished with two turnovers.
Tennessee stubbed its toe at Houston last week, falling 13-12 as a three-point road favorite, halting a two-game SU and ATS uptick, as the SU winner is now 13-1 in the Titans’ 14 games this season. QB Kerry Collins (15 of 33, 181 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a lackluster outing as Tennessee mustered just a field goal in each quarter, going 2-for-13 on third down. The Titans got outgained 375-281, allowing 100 yards rushing by RB Steve Slaton and a whopping 207 receiving yards from WR Andre Johnson.
These teams have alternated ATS wins over their last five clashes, with Pittsburgh rolling 34-7 as a seven-point favorite in their last meeting during the 2005 season. The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight versus Tennessee, and the underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Steelers have cashed in their final regular-season road game five of the past six years, and they are on additional ATS streaks of 5-0 in roadies, 4-0 against winning teams and 11-4 in December. That said, they are also 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as a chalk of three points or less.
In addition to their season-long 11-3 ATS run, the Titans sport positive pointspread trends of 5-2 at LP Field overall, 6-1 as a home ‘dog, 6-0 after a non-cover, 9-2 after a SU loss, 8-2 against AFC foes and 10-3 on grass.
The under is on runs of 4-1 with Pittsburgh facing a winning team and 5-1 with Tennessee meeting a winning unit. But the over is 10-3 in the Steelers’ last 13 games against the AFC and is on runs for the Titans of 5-1 at home and 7-3-1 in December. Finally, the over has cashed in five of the last six clashes between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Miami (9-5, 6-8 ATS) at Kansas City (2-12, 8-6 ATS)
The Dolphins, who can claim the AFC East title by winning their last two games one year after going 1-15, travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the lowly Chiefs.
Miami held off San Francisco 14-9 as a 5½-points home chalk, earning its third consecutive win but failing to cash for the fifth time in six games. QB Chad Pennington (12 of 19, 156 yards) squeezed two TD passes out of an otherwise sub-par day for the Dolphins, who were shut out in the second half and finished with a 318-248 deficit in total yards. Miami also lost the time of possession battle by more than 16 minutes (38:13-21:47).
Kansas City suffered a stunning late letdown in a 22-21 loss to San Diego catching 5½ points at home. The Chiefs led 21-3 early in the third quarter and were still up 21-10 late in the fourth quarter. Then they gave up two TDs in 39 seconds to lose it, allowing a Philip Rivers-to-Malcom Floyd TD pass with 1:19 remaining, failing to cover an onside kick, then giving up a Rivers-to-Vincent Jackson scoring toss. Kansas City failed to take advantage of a 3-1 turnover edge.
Kansas City is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade with Miami, though the Dolphins won 13-10 as a one-point home chalk two years ago.
The Dolphins have covered in four of their last five on the highway, but they are on a bundle of ATS nosedives, including 4-17 as a non-division favorite, 5-22 overall as a favorite, 0-4 on grass, 1-4 after a SU win and 7-23-1 against losing teams. The Chiefs are a dismal 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at Arrowhead, but are otherwise on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in December, 5-1 against AFC foes, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 6-2 on grass and 6-2 getting points.
The under for Miami is on tears of 7-1 overall, 6-0 with the Dolphins a road chalk and 4-0 against losing teams, but the over for Kansas City is on runs of 5-1 at home, 6-1 with the Chiefs a home pup and 23-11 in December games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (8-6 SU and ATS) at New England (9-5, 7-7 ATS)
The Patriots, needing a win to stay in playoff contention, step out of conference play when they host the NFC West champion Cardinals at Gillette Stadium.
New England trounced Oakland 49-26 as a 6½-point road chalk to halt a two-game ATS hiccup and give the Pats their third SU win in the last four weeks. QB Matt Cassel (18 of 30, 218 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) was efficient and extremely effective, helping New England take a 35-14 halftime lead. RB Sammy Morris (14 carries, 117 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, and Ellis Hobbs had a 95-yard kick-return TD, right after Oakland’s Justin Miller took a kick back 91 yards for a score.
Arizona got whipped by Minnesota 35-14 as a four-point home favorite, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games, with the three losses all coming against playoff contenders by an average score of 40-21. QB Kurt Warner (29 of 45, 270 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) didn’t get much mileage out of nearly four dozen throws, and the Cardinals defense gave up four TD passes to much-maligned Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson and 165 rushing yards to star RB Adrian Peterson.
These teams have met just once this decade, with New England winning 23-12 as a 7½-point road favorite in 2004.
The Patriots are on ATS freefalls of 2-10 at home, 1-8 after a spread-cover and 3-11 after a SU win, but as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points, they are 5-1 ATS at home and 11-3 ATS overall. The Cardinals are on ATS skids of 1-5 as a road ‘dog, 3-9 on field turf and 9-20 in non-division roadies, but they are on ATS upticks of 13-5 after a SU loss and 9-4 against winning teams.
The over for New England is on runs of 5-0 overall, 7-3 in December and 16-7 after an ATS win, and the over for Arizona is on sprees of 26-10 overall, 12-2 in December, 14-3 against winning teams and 37-15 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cincinnati (2-11-1, 5-9 ATS) at Cleveland (4-10, 7-7 ATS)
Two teams quickly headed toward the off-season square off when the Browns host the division and in-state rival Bengals.
Cleveland lost to Philadelphia 30-10 Monday night as a 16-point road pup, falling to 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in its last four contests. Third-string QB Ken Dorsey (11 of 28, 156 yards, 2 INTs), thrust into the starting role due to injuries, led a sub-par offense that totaled just 196 yards and 22:05 in time of possession, while allowing 418 yards and 37:55 in time of possession.
Cincinnati upset freefalling Washington 20-13 as a 6½-point home ‘dog to end a three-game SU and ATS skid. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (16 of 29, 209 yards, 1 TD) didn’t light it up, but he did lead a turnover-free offense, and the Bengals recovered two fumbles, including one from Redskins FB Mike Sellers at the goal line in the third quarter.
The SU winner is 10-1-1 ATS in Cleveland’s last 12 games and has cashed in eight of Cincy’s last nine games, with the lone exception coming in the Bengals’ tie with Philadelphia as a 9½-point home underdog.
In this AFC North rivalry, the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, with each team grabbing the cash five times. Cleveland beat Cincinnati 20-12 as a one-point road pup in September.
The Browns are on a 2-5 ATS purge, but they are on ATS runs of 11-4 after a non-cover, 7-3 against losing teams and 9-4-1 at home. The Bengals have almost nothing but negative ATS trends, including 0-5 in division play, 0-4 on the road, 1-9 against the AFC, 2-9 after a spread-cover, 2-6 after a SU win and 3-9 against losing teams.
The under for Cleveland is on rolls of 13-6-1 overall, 6-0 against losing teams, 7-1-1 in December and 7-3 at home, and the under for Cincinnati is on stretches of 13-6-1 overall, 7-1 in December and 10-4-1 against AFC opponents. And in this rivalry, the total has gone low in seven of the last nine contests in Cleveland and five of the last seven clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Philadelphia (8-5-1, 9-5 ATS) at Washington (7-7, 5-8-1 ATS)
The Eagles, still alive in the hunt for a wild-card berth, go for their fourth consecutive victory when they head into FedEx Field for an NFC East clash with the Redskins.
Philadelphia rolled past Cleveland 30-10 as a heavy 16-point chalk on Monday night for its third straight win and cover. QB Donovan McNabb (26 of 35, 290 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was solid enough to help the Eagles overcome a 3-2 turnover deficit, and the Philadelphia defense allowed just 196 total yards (compared to Philly’s 418) and 22:05 in time of possession.
Washington was upset at Cincinnati 20-13 as a 6½-point road favorite and is now on an 0-3 SU and ATS skid, falling out of playoff contention in the process. QB Jason Campbell (17 of 28, 167 yards, 1 TD) had a turnover-free day, but his teammates lost two fumbles, including FB Mike Sellers giving it away at the goal line in the third quarter.
The SU winner is 19-1-1 ATS in Washington’s last 21 games (12-1-1 ATS this season) and has cashed in 11 of the Eagles’ last 12 games – with the lone exception coming in Philly’s 13-13 tie at Cincinnati as a 9½-point favorite.
Washington is 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in this rivalry, including a 23-17 road win getting 6½ points in October. The Redskins are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes, but Philadelphia is on a 9-3-1 ATS run in Washington, and the road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests.
The Eagles are on positive pointspread streaks of 10-3 on the highway, 23-9 in road division games, 4-1 in December, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 after a SU win and 5-2 with the Eagles favored. On the flip side, the Redskins are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last six home division games, and they are on further ATS nosedives of 0-5-1 overall, 0-5 at FedEx Field, 0-4-1 after a SU loss, 0-4 against winning teams and 5-14 at home versus teams with a winning road record.
The under for Philadelphia is on runs of 4-1-1 in December and 39-15-5 with the Eagles favored, and the under for Washington is on sprees of 10-1-1 overall, 6-0 at home, 4-0 against winning teams, 6-1 inside the division and 4-1 in December. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the under has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings overall and is 4-1-2 in the last seven contests at Washington.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
San Francisco (5-9, 7-7 ATS) at St. Louis (2-12, 4-10 ATS)
The 49ers make their annual trip to the Edward Jones Dome to face the Rams in a matchup of two NFC West rivals playing out the string.
San Francisco had its two-game winning streak end in a 14-9 loss to Miami, but the Niners got the money as a 5½-point road ‘dog to cash for the third straight week. QB Shaun Hill (30 of 46, 233 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had a lackluster outing, and although the 49ers won the time of possession battle by a mile (38:13-21:47), they couldn’t find the end zone and lost despite holding the Dolphins scoreless in the second half.
The SU winner is now 23-2 ATS in San Fran’s last 25 games (12-2 ATS this year).
St. Louis lost to Seattle 23-20 as a one-point home pup for its eighth consecutive SU setback (2-6 ATS). QB Marc Bulger (19 of 32, 207 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a mediocre effort, and in an otherwise evenly played game, the Rams got outscored 10-3 in the fourth quarter, losing on Olindo Mare’s 27-yard field goal as time expired.
San Francisco is on a 7-1 ATS run (5-3 SU) in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, including a 35-16 home rout as a seven-point chalk last month. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four contests in St. Louis.
The 49ers are on ATS dips of 8-18-1 as a favorite and 0-4-1 as a road chalk, but they are on pointspread rolls of 5-1 overall, 7-1 on turf and 4-1 in December. The Rams are on a flurry of ATS declines, including 1-6 overall, 0-5 in December, 2-7 at home, 7-19 inside the division, 16-37 after a SU loss and 21-48-1 after a pointspread defeat.
The over for San Francisco is on runs of 4-0 in division play and 9-2 with the Niners favored, but the under is 5-1 in San Fran’s last six December starts. The under for St. Louis is on a 5-2-1 stretch, but the over is on streaks of 10-3-1 following a non-cover and 9-3-1 in December. Finally, the total has gone low in four of the last five contests between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Atlanta (9-5, 8-6 ATS) at Minnesota (9-5, 6-8 ATS)
Two teams looking to bolster their playoff stock square off when the Falcons invade the Metrodome for a key NFC contest against the Vikings, who can clinch the NFC North with a win.
Atlanta held off Tampa Bay 13-10 in overtime, but failed to cover as a 5½-points home favorite for its second straight ATS setback. It was the first time that the SU winner has failed to cover in the Falcons’ 14 games this season, though the SU winner remains 21-2 ATS in Atlanta’s last 23 starts.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan (15 of 23, 206 yards, 0 TDs) threw two INTs and fumbled twice against Tampa, though the Falcons recovered both times. He led Atlanta to a 10-0 first quarter lead, but the Falcons didn’t score again until Jason Elam booted the winning 34-yard-field goal 11 minutes into the extra session. RB Michael Turner went off for 152 yards and a TD on 32 carries.
Minnesota smacked Arizona 35-14 as a four-point road pup for its fourth straight victory (3-1 ATS). QB Tarvaris Jackson (11 of 17, 163 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) had a stunningly good day subbing for the injured Gus Frerotte, helping the Vikes to a 28-0 halftime lead, and RB Adrian Peterson was typically solid, finishing with 165 yards on 28 carries. Frerotte is now healthy, but Jackson will get the start against Atlanta.
The SU winner is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes between these teams, with the favorite cashing in all four contests. Most recently, Minnesota rolled 24-7 at home as a three-point chalk in the 2007 season opener.
The Falcons are on ATS rolls of 12-6 in non-division road games and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they’ve dropped seven straight ATS decisions on turf and are on further ATS skids of 2-5 in December and 3-7 against winning teams. The Vikings are on a 5-2 ATS run versus winning teams, but otherwise are in pointspread ruts of 1-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 in December, 2-8 after a SU win and 2-5 inside the conference.
The under is 36-15-1 in Atlanta’s last 52 roadies and 4-1 in its last five games against winning teams, but the over for the Falcons is on stretches of 6-1 in December and 8-2 after a non-cover. Furthermore, the over for Minnesota is on runs of 6-2 overall, 5-2 against winning teams and 9-4 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
New Orleans (7-7, 9-4-1 ATS) at Detroit (0-14, 6-8 ATS)
The Lions, who get two more tries to avoid becoming the NFL’s first 0-16 team, take on the Saints in an otherwise meaningless game at Ford Field.
Detroit gave Indianapolis a battle last week before succumbing 31-21 on the road. Although the Lions did cover easily as a huge 16½-point pup, they’re still just 1-21 SU and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games. QB Dan Orlovsky (23 of 34, 233 yards, 1 TD) had a steady game, and though both teams had two turnovers, Detroit’s second one proved the most costly, with RB Chad Simpson fumbling at the Lions’ 14-yard line with 1:16 remaining. Indy quickly kicked a field goal to make it a two-score game.
New Orleans was officially eliminated from the playoffs with its 27-24 overtime loss at Chicago last Thursday, getting a push as a three-point road ‘dog to halt a four-game ATS run (3-1 SU). QB Drew Brees (24 of 43, 232 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) rallied the Saints from a 21-7 halftime deficit, hitting Marques Colston with an 11-yard TD pass to put New Orleans up 24-21 late. But Bears kicker Robbie Gould tied it with a 28-yard field goal at the end of regulation, then won it with a 35-yard boot in overtime.
Detroit is 3-0 SU and ATS against New Orleans this decade, including a 13-12 road win getting 2½ points in 2005, and the underdog in this rivalry is on a 4-0 ATS uptick.
The Saints are on ATS runs of 4-0-1 overall, 7-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 as a chalk, 7-1 on the road against teams with a losing home mark and 4-1 as a road favorite. The Lions, meanwhile, are on pointspread slides of 1-7 at home, 2-6 after a spread-cover, 7-19 as a dog of 3½ to 10 points and 5-11 against the NFC.
The over for New Orleans is on streaks of 14-4-1 overall, 8-0 in December, 13-3-1 on field turf and 20-7-1 against the NFC, and the over for Detroit is on rolls of 17-5-1 overall, 8-1 in December, 8-2-1 on field turf and 7-2-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
N.Y. Jets (9-5, 7-7 ATS) at Seattle (3-11, 6-7-1 ATS)
The Jets, currently holding the tiebreaker edge in the three-team logjam atop the AFC East, make a cross-country trek for the second time in three weeks when they face the Seahawks at Qwest Field.
New York outlasted Buffalo 31-27, winning when defensive end Shaun Ellis returned a fumble for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, but the Jets failed to cash as a nine-point home chalk for their third straight ATS setback. QB Brett Favre (17 of 30, 207 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was less than sterling, and the Jets’ defense couldn’t stop RB Marshawn Lyncy (21 carries, 127 yards) as the Bills finished with an 11-minute time-of-possession edge. But the Jets picked off J.P. Losman three times and forced the Losman fumble that led to Ellis’ game-winning TD.
Seattle beat St. Louis 23-20 as a one-point road favorite, snapping a six-game SU losing streak and covering for the second straight week. The Seahawks rallied from a 17-7 halftime deficit, with backup QB Seneca Wallace (15 of 25, 226 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) leading two late-fourth-quarter scoring drives. Seattle won it on Olindo Mare’s 27-yard field goal as time expired.
These squads have met just twice this decade, with New York going 2-0 SU and ATS, though both games were at the Meadowlands. Most recently, New York rolled 37-14 as a seven-point chalk in 2004.
The Jets are in ATS funks of 2-6 on the road against the NFC, 1-5 as a favorite, 1-4 as a non-division chalk, 1-4 laying points on the road and 1-4 against losing teams. The Seahawks, despite their wretched SU record, are on ATS upticks of 12-5 hosting AFC teams, 5-2 against teams from the Eastern Time Zone, 7-1-2 at home against teams with a winning road record and 7-2 in December.
The over for New York is on runs of 6-1-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win and 4-1 with the Jets favored, but Seattle sports under streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 5-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Houston (7-7 SU and ATS) at Oakland (3-11, 5-9 ATS)
The surging Texans trek to the West Coast to take on the reeling Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.
Houston knocked off AFC-leading Tennessee 13-12 as a three-point home pup for its fourth consecutive SU victory and fifth straight ATS conquest. QB Matt Schaub (23 of 39, 284 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a solid day, and though he lost a fumble, that was the Texans’ lone turnover. RB Steve Slaton (24 carries, 100 yards) was again solid as Houston outgained Tennessee 375-281 and had a nearly 13-minute bulge in time of possession (36:22-23:38).
Oakland got thumped by New England 49-26 as a 6½-point home ‘dog for its third consecutive SU and ATS loss. QB JaMarcus Russell (17 of 32, 242 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent game by his standards, but the Raiders gave up 35 first-half points and allowed a whopping 487 total yards for the game, while gaining 334.
These teams have met in three of the past four seasons, with Houston going 3-0 SU and ATS, including a 24-17 road victory last year as a three-point pup.
Along with their current 5-0 pointspread run, the Texans are on ATS hot streaks of 4-0 on grass, 4-0 in December, 4-1 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 on the highway and 5-2 coming off a division game. The Raiders are on a 6-21 ATS freefall at home and are on further pointspread skids of 17-35 overall, 22-47-1 after a SU loss, 18-41-1 after a non-cover, 2-5 as an underdog, 7-20 as a home pup and 14-37 in December.
The under for Houston is on runs of 4-0 overall and 4-1 against losing teams, but the over has cashed in seven of the Texans’ last nine roadies. The under for Oakland is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 in December games, 6-1-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Buffalo (6-8 SU and ATS) at Denver (8-6, 4-9-1 ATS)
The Broncos hope to wrap up the weak AFC West when they welcome the Bills to Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver got dumped at Carolina 30-10 catching seven points for its third ATS setback in the last four games (2-2 SU). QB Jay Cutler (21 of 33, 172 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a dismal day as the Broncos finished with 279 total yards, while allowing 400 to the Panthers (147 rushing yards) and letting WR Steve Smith go off for 165 yards and a TD on nine catches.
Buffalo had the Jets on the ropes last Sunday before a stunning late miscue in losing 31-27, but the Bills covered as a healthy nine-point ‘dog to end a two-game ATS skid. QB J.P. Losman (24 of 39, 148 yards) had all of Buffalo’s turnovers, throwing three INTs and losing a fumble in the final two minutes that was returned for the winning score. First-string QB Trent Edwards, out the last two weeks with an injury, is listed as probable today.
Denver has won three meetings with Buffalo this decade, but the Bills went 2-1 ATS, including covering in last year’s season-opening 15-14 home loss as a three-point pup.
The Broncos carry nothing but negative ATS trends, and loads of them, including 10-27-1 overall, 1-6-1 against losing teams, 1-4 in December, 2-15 as a home chalk, 7-19-1 overall at home and 6-14 outside the division. Likewise, the Bills are on ATS backslides of 2-6 overall, 0-4 after an ATS win, 1-7 against winning teams, 6-10 as a non-division road ‘dog and 2-5 against the AFC.
The under for Denver is on tears of 4-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0-1 in December and 4-1 against losing teams, and the under is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last eight games getting points. But the over is 14-6 in the Bills’ last 20 December starts and 14-6-1 in the Broncos’ last 21 games against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Diego (6-8, 5-8-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay (9-5, 8-6 ATS)
The Chargers, clinging to faint hopes of winning the AFC West, go cross-country to Raymond James Stadium to meet the Buccaneers, who are trying to stay in the NFC playoff picture.
San Diego pulled out a miraculous 22-21 victory at Kansas City last week, recovering from a 21-3 third-quarter deficit but failing to cover as a six-point road chalk. QB Philip Rivers (34 of 48, 346 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 lost fumble) hit Malcolm Floyd with a 4-yard scoring pass with 1:19 remaining, the Chargers recovered the ensuing onside kick, and Rivers found Vincent Jackson for the game-winning 10-yard score with 40 seconds left.
Tampa Bay lost to Atlanta 13-10 in overtime for its second straight defeat, but the Bucs covered as a 5½-point road underdog to end a two-game ATS skid. QB Brian Griese (26 of 37, 269 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), subbing for an injured Jeff Garcia (calf), rallied Tampa from a 10-0 first-quarter deficit, but the Buccaneers ultimately failed to take advantage of a 3-1 turnover edge. Garcia is expected back under center today.
These teams have met just once this decade, with San Diego winning 31-24 as a 4½-point home chalk in 2004.
The Chargers are on ATS declines of 2-6 overall, 1-4 in roadies and 2-5 on grass, but they still sport positive ATS trends of 6-1 in December, 13-4-3 as a road pup and 10-4 after a SU win. The Buccaneers are on ATS upticks of 5-2 after a spread-cover, 7-3 as a home chalk and 9-4 after a SU loss.
The under for San Diego is on stretches of 4-1-1 overall and 5-0 against winning teams, and the under for Tampa Bay is on rolls of 7-3 overall, 4-0 at home and 37-17 with the Bucs a home favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
Carolina (11-3, 8-4-2 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (11-3, 10-4 ATS)
The red-hot Panthers roll into the Meadowlands to face the defending Super Bowl champion Giants in the prime-time slot, with home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs at stake.
Carolina dumped Denver 30-10 as a seven-point home favorite, moving to 7-1 SU in its last eight games (5-3 ATS). QB Jake Delhomme (17 of 26, 253 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) leaned heavily on star wideout Steve Smith (9 catches, 165 yards, 1 TD), and the Panthers racked up 147 rushing yards in outgaining the Broncos, 400-279. Carolina also won the turnover battle, 2-1.
New York looked lethargic in a 20-8 loss to Dallas as a three-point road ‘dog, suffering its second consecutive SU and ATS loss after a 7-0 SU and ATS surge. QB Eli Manning (18 of 35, 191 yards) threw two INTs and was sacked eight times as the Giants managed just 218 total yards. New York allowed 321 yards and failed to force any turnovers.
Carolina is 2-1 SU and ATS in three clashes with New York this decade, but the Giants took the most recent meeting, winning 27-13 in 2006 as a three-point road favorite.
The Panthers are on ATS surges of 11-5-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 12-4-2 as a road pup of three points or less, but they are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog of any price. The Giants, despite their struggles the last two weeks, remain on positive ATS streaks of 24-8 overall, 6-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 as a favorite, 14-3 against winning teams, 4-1 at home and 6-2 in non-division home games.
The over for Carolina is on tears of 4-1 overall, 5-0 against the NFC and 9-4 in December games, and the over is 7-3 in New York’s last 10 games as a favorite of three points or less. However, the under for New York is on runs of 6-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Troy (8-4, 7-4 ATS) vs. Southern Miss (6-6, 7-5 ATS) (at New Orleans)
Southern Miss closed the regular season on a four-game winning streak to become bowl-eligible and now will take on Sun Belt Conference champ Troy in the New Orleans Bowl inside the Superdome.
The Golden Eagles found themselves sitting at 2-6 (3-5 ATS) and losers of five straight as the calendar flipped to November, when they took flight by winning and covering their final four games to get to the postseason, including a 28-12 season-ending win at SMU as a 14½-point chalk. Southern Miss allowed just 35 total points over its final five games after giving up 35.8 per contest during the five-game losing streak.
Eagles RB Damion Fletcher was 11th in the nation with 1,586 rushing yards, and he averaged six yards per carry, good for second in Conference USA.
Troy won the Sun Belt Conference outright for the first time in school history and finished the season by winning six of eight (5-3 ATS), including a 35-9 victory over Arkansas State on Dec. 6 as a 13-point favorite. The Trojans, who outscored their opponents 83-12 in their final two contests, are in the third bowl game in the last five years. Troy’s most memorable game was on Nov. 15 when it went to LSU and jumped out to a 31-3 lead but fell apart in the final 16 minutes, allowing 37 points and falling 40-31 to the then-No. 19 Tigers, easily cashing as a 16-point underdog.
These teams haven’t met since 1977, but Southern Miss owns a 5-1 series edge.
Troy is on positive ATS streaks of 20-8 overall, 11-5 as a favorite, 12-4 after a straight-up win and 5-1 on turf. Southern Miss is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a ‘dog, but the Eagles are on positive ATS runs of 4-1 in non-conference games, 5-1 following a straight-up win and 6-2 against teams from the Sun Belt Conference.
For the Trojans, the over is 7-2 in their last nine non-conference games, but the under is 4-1 in their last five as a favorite and 5-1 in their last six on artificial turf. Meanwhile, Southern Miss is in the midst of “under” streaks of 4-0-1 in bowl games, 8-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-1 against teams with a winning record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY
JIM FEIST
CINCINNATI BENGALS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
Take: CINCINNATI BENGALS
Reason: Cincy is off a 20-13 upset of Washington. QB Carson Palmer (3 TDs, 4 INTs) is still out with an inflamed throwing elbow that has side-lined him since Oct. 5. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (7 TDs, 9 INTs) will start his tenth consecutive game. The Bengals left side of the offensive line - tackle Anthony Collins and guard Nate Livings – are making their fifth NFL start. Even in that 13-13 tie with the Eagles, they had just 282 total yards, and that was in 5 quarters. They also had a 35-6 loss at Houston getting outgained 384-253. They have fine WRs in T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson. At least one player was ecstatic Sunday: "How do you think I feel?" WR Chad Ocho Cinco said. "Look at my face. I actually want to go out and go to the restaurant and eat and not have to worry about the questions." The Browns (4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS) appear to have run out of gas after losing 2 starting QBs. Young QB Brady Quinn (fractured finger) is out the rest of the season and so is QB Derek Anderson (9 TDs, 8 INTs). QB Ken Dorsey threw for 150 yards and one pick in a 28-9 loss at Tennessee as they got outgained 390-178. The Browns also tried running Joshua Cribbs from the quarterback spot. TE Kellen Winslow has an ankle injury, while Cleveland's injury list grew with linebacker Shantee Orr hurting a knee. They got shut down Monday night in Philly, a 30-10 defeat, getting outgained 418-196. So now the Browns have scored 6, 6, 9 and 10 points the last four games. Even in a 16-6 loss to Houston, note that the Cleveland secondary struggled, as QB Sage Rosenfels passed for 275 yards and a touchdown. The week before Buffalo had 27 points, and prior to that Denver had 564 yards! The defense also gave up 37 points and 429 yards in a home loss to the Ravens. Cleveland should be favored over anyone, even the lowly Bengals. This game is going to be a tight battle and while expected low scoring, the Bengals have a great chance to win another game.
Greg Daraban
Clemson at Miami
The Tigers come to Miami Garden 11-0. However they have really beaten up on some cupcakes. The Canes at 7-2 look to take this undefeated squad down, and they will.Take Miami
R&R Totals
NY Jets @ Seattle
Play On:UNDER
Pure Lock
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON
PLAY ON: PHILADELPHIA (-)
Mikey Sports
New Orleans @ Detroit
Play On: Detroit (+)
Dennis Hill
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Over 31.5
The weather is going to be cold, and that's why this total has dropped 5 points. Look for both teams to put up at least 17 points apiece. The OVER 31 is your play for Sunday.
Lenny Del Genio
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots
By virtue of last weeks loss to the Vikings, the Cardinals are locked into the 4th seed in the NFC. It doesnt matter if they lost out, they will host a Wild Card playoff game. New England actually does not control its own destiny, needing to win out and Baltimore to lose at least one time. This looks like a horrible spot for Arizona, as it will probably snow, WR Anquan Boldin may not play, and they have lost 17 of 18 non-division road games and 17 of 19 games in the Eastern Time Zone. Take New England.
Jimmy The Moose
San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At 6-8 SU the Chargers are having a season to forget. San Diego comes into this one 2-3 SU and ATS in their last 5 games. In their last 8 games overall the Chargers are 2-6 ATS. San Diego is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. At home this season the Buccaneers are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS. In their last 36 home games vs. a team with a losing road record the Bucs are 24-9-3 ATS. Tampa is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games as a favorite between 3.5-10 points. Play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -.
Mike Anthony
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns -3
Cincinnati with more injuries and they can not score on the road. In their last 4 road games they have scored 3, 10, 6 and 14. Cincy has scored 2 TDs in the last 15 quarters averaging 9.8 in their last 5 games. Cincy has covered only 1 of their last 10 AFC Matchups The Browns have played better at home and we feel that makes all the difference in this game as they have more weapons in this rival.
Frank Jordan
Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -9
Arizona has clinched the division as they head to New England. Arizona is just 3-4 on the road, but have won 2 of three against the AFC. New England is just 4-3 in 7 home games, but is a perfect 3-0 in three NFC games. Look for New England to roll at home in a bit of a shoot out as they win by double figures. Play New England
RJ Robbins
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Under 31.5
There are 3 things for sure in this match-up; 1-Cleveland is bad, 2-Cincinnati is awful, and 3-the weather will be horrible. Play the UNDER 31.5 RJ has his strongest Over/Under selection of the year. He is 18-5 on his Total selections this year and this game is a Big [10*] 2 UNIT GOY Winner!
Team Who2beton
The New York Jets have always had difficulty winning on the West Coast, and we do not expect this to change this week when they visit the Seattle Seahawks.
The Jets have been especially brutal travelling three time zones this season, going 0-3 vs. three teams with losing records (Oakland, San Francisco, San Diego). Furthermore, Brett Favre actually has 13 interceptions vs. just nine touchdown passes over the last 10 weeks. None of this actually inspires us to give points on the road in this spot.
As if that is not enough, the Seahawks have actually played pretty well lately, finally cracking the win column vs. the St. Louis Rams on the road last week after throwing a scare into the New England Patriots in this stadium two weeks ago. In fact, while Seattle is 3-11 straight up, five of their losses have been by six points or less including four losses by three points or less.
We look for the Seahawks to put a crimp in the Jets AFC East title aspirations with an outright upset here.
Pick: Seahawks +4.5
Bob Balfe
Jets -3.5 over Seahawks
The Jets need a big win on the west coast to keep their playoff hopes alive. New York out played Buffalo last week, but special teams and big plays almost cost them the game. New York responded well and their defense made a big play to win the game. This team is confident and with Brett Favre under center they can play with anyone. Seattle is coming off a come from behind win in St. Louis, but I saw a Rams team that just gave up and doesn't really care about the rest of this season. I just do not see Wallace producing as much offense as Favre. Look for the big Jets Defensive Line to bully the Seahawks young and banged up offensive line. Take the Jets.