Sunday Service Plays

WUNDERDOG

Denver at San Diego
Pick:UNDER 50.5

The last game of the NFL regular season will be a virtual playoff matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers. The Chargers looked dead in the water at 4-8 through 12 games, but three straight wins combined with terrible play by Denver (against the Raiders and Bills at home no less), results in this game being played for the AFC West Title. The Broncos have worn the overrated banner all season long. The perception that this team was somehow good was created when Jay Cutler opened the season leading the Broncos to 38 ppg and a 3-0 record. Cutler had thrown for eight TD passes and 308 yards per game in those first three games. The truth was that even then, Denver was severely overrated. Their only convincing win of the three was vs. lowly Oakland. Ed Hoculi handed them an undeserved win vs. San Diego in game two, and they squeaked by New Orleans in game three with a late field goal to win by 2 points. That 308 yard average by Cutler would only be reached four times in the next 11 games. At the time, he had a 113.4 QB rating. The last 12 games would see Cutler not complete a single game with a rating that high. After the opening three games throwing eight TDs, the next 12 saw him throw just 16 more. The problem with those 16 TDs is that they came with 14 INTs. The 38 ppg offense was reduced to an offense that has averaged 19.6 ppg in their last 12 games. That would rank No. 25 in the NFL in points scored per game. The Chargers have played to a 7-3-1 record to the UNDER in their last 11 weeks. And, this team has not faced a total of greater than 48.5 points the entire season! They just haven't been great on either side of the ball, but good on both sides of the ball. Totals in the 50s should be reserved for teams with big, consistent offenses and neither of these teams has demonstrated that this season. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

Carlo Campanella

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

While Kansas City at 2-13 and Cincinnati 3-11-1 will end their seasons on Sunday with two of the worst records in the NFL, both of these teams have greatly improved the last four weeks. It's more noticible for the Bengals, as they won their last 2 games outright over Washington and Cleveland. However, let's not read too much into those victories as both the Browns and Redskins squads are plagued by injuries and neither were involved in Playoff runs. Kansas City only posted a 1-5 record in those last 4 efforts, but they posted a 3-1 ATS record while beating the Raiders and were leading late in the game during those last three games while losing close endings by 7, 1 & 7 points to Denver, San Diego and Miami- and ALL 3 are still alive in the Playoff hunt! Kansas City heads to Cincinnati and find themselves once again in the road Dog role, where they're a profitable 5-2 ATS this year and 9-2 ATS during their last 11 road trips! Both teams only playing fro pride and doubt the Bengals can string 3 stright wins together as they're the worst team the Chiefs have faced in months.

7* Play On Kansas City

Tom Stryker

Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -3

San Francisco interim skipper Mike Singletary is doing a fantastic job for the 49ers and he would like to have his troops close with an impressive victory over Washington.

The Niners catch the Skins off their home upset win over Philadelphia and that places Frisco in an automatic “play on” situation. Since 1992, NFL road teams fighting in their final regular season game are a stiff 9-22 SU and 10-21 ATS provided they won straight up priced as a home dog last. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that enters off an ATS loss, this situation crashes to a horrendous 4-14 SU and 3-15 ATS! The Eagles apply to both wallet-breaking sets of this system.

There is another solid last home game angle that favors San Francisco here. Since 1980, NFL non-division hosts running in their last game of the season are a tremendous 18-9 ATS provided they enter off back-to-back road affairs and a straight up win last. The Niners fit this strong situation perfectly.

With a win today, there is a pretty good chance that Coach Singletary will be asked to return as the permanent skipper of the 49ers. San Francisco has gone 4-4 SU under his leadership and can finish with a winning record over their last nine games with a victory here. Take San Francisco!

Matt Fargo

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -6.5

I was completely on the wrong side of Arizona on Sunday as the snow storm in New England made the Cardinals look like a JV high school football team. The good news is that the Cardinals are back home in the desert in hopes of putting something together before the playoffs start. The Cardinals have dropped two straight and four of five so the last thing they want is to be heading into the playoffs on a significant losing skid. Look for a full pout effort to gain some momentum back.

Seattle is coming off a very solid home win over the Jets which made it two straight for the Seahawks. Seattle was sky high for that game as it was most likely head coach Mike Holmgren’s last home game so coming up with the same amount of energy and emotion will be a tough challenge. It was the Jets fourth game on the west coast this season and their fourth loss so they definitely played a part in that outcome as well. Seattle is 2-5 on the road and 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against a team with a winning home record.

The Cardinals have had some bad efforts this season and that game against New England was clearly one of them. Arizona went 0-5 in East Coast games this year and in three of those losses it gave up 56 points to the Jets, 48 to the Eagles and 47 to the Patriots. The Cardinals have allowed a much more respectable 22.4 ppg at home and they now face an offense that is unable to do much. Seattle has scored 23 points or fewer in 11 of its last 12 games and in six of seven road games where it is averaging 15.9 ppg.

The Cardinals offense has been shut down the last two weeks. You can give them a mulligan this past week in the snow whole two weeks ago, they faced the stout Vikings defense. Now they go up against the NFL’s 30th ranked defense and one that allowed 458 yards in three first meeting including 382 yards through the air. The Seahawks passing defense is dead last in the NFL while Arizona remains 2nd in the league in passing offense despite passing for just 142 yards against New England.

Arizona falls into a great situation where you play on a team that was beaten by the spread by 28 or more points in their previous game after the first month of the season. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 years. Seattle meanwhile is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit win as an underdog. Arizona is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its next game following a game where it lost the turnover battle by more than two. The home team has won and covered four of the last five meetings. 3* Arizona Cardinals

Mike Anthony

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +13

The Ravens control their own destiny, needing only a win on Sunday to capture the second wild card spot and end the dreams of all other pretenders. The factors are in their favor: the game is at home and they face an opponent whose season ended weeks ago.

Jacksonville played their hearts out last week against the Colts in a Thursday night affair. Even when they play hard, they don’t have much to show for it. Now their run-based offense goes up against one of the best defenses in the NFL, a unit that needs one more strong performance to enter the playoffs despite the doubts that surrounded their first-year quarterback and first-year coach. While the Jaguars have had the extra rest from playing on Thursday last week, they are in a situation where that rest may not play much of a factor. With Ray Rice a game time decision, look for BALTIMORE to win, but not cover the spread in a 6-to-11 pt game. Play the Underdog Jags.

Dr. Vegas

Jacksonville vs Baltimore

5-10 Jacksonville has been eliminated from the playoffs. 10-5 Baltimore has 4 ways to get into the playoffs: 1. a win against Jacksonville, 2. a tie plus a Miami loss, 3. A tie plus a New England loss, or 4. a New England loss. The only one of those scenarios that rests entirely in Baltimore’s hands is to simply win their game against a defeated Jaguars team.The game opened with Baltimore -11.5 and has moved to -12.5. It’s safe to say that Baltimore, who has won 4 of the past 5 and 8 of the last 10, will win this game outright. But what about that large point spread?

The Jaguars have lost 5 of their last 6, even though they did show some signs of life in their loss against the Colts. The biggest question for the FreePlays.com crowd is not if Jacksonville will win. They won’t. But will they hang in there enough to cover the large spread?

The argument for the Jaguars covering this game relies on head coach Jack Del Rio’s desire to finish the season on a strong note. A couple of Jaguars coaches have already been given their walking papers.

And when all is said and done, Baltimore may have already clinched a playoff berth by kickoff, if New England loses their game against Buffalo, which goes on the early card Sunday. That probably won’t happen, and Baltimore isn’t planning on it. But if it does… look for the Ravens bench to cool off quickly as all the bench warmers take to the field.

There are too many factors still at large to call the side of this game, but your free winner is on the total, which should be an easy play. Take this game over the total of 36.5

Nevada Sharpshooter

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys travel to Philadelphia for a matchup full of playoff implications. Here is the bottom line, if Dallas wins they are in, if the Boy’s lose they are out. Philadelphia though needs a win and help. If Philly wins, Tampa loses and Minnesota or Chicago loses, then Philly is in. Tampa, Chicago and Minnesota all play at 1 eastern time, while Philly plays at 4:15 eastern which means Philly will know if they playing for a playoff spot at kickoff time or shortly after. I cannot help but believe that if Philly knows that their season is over, that they will have the intensity to beat the Cowboys. While it is very possible that Chicago or Minnesota could lose, it is highly unlikely that Tampa will lose at home over Oakland. Assuming that Philly will be eliminated from playoff contention before thier game is underway I like the Cowboys to get the win, so take Dallas +1.5 over Philly.

Platinum Plays

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

What a game to finalize the 2008 NFL regular season. Yes, their’s a playoff spot at stake for the winner of the “Inept Game of the Year” and we will be forced to watch one of these “powerhouses” in the first round of the playoffs and that’s about the best anyone can say of this game. If the NFL dropped both the AFC West and NFC West would anyone really care after their perfomances this year? If one could see this is only a short down period for each of these divisions, I might not be as critical but, it looks like it’s going to be at least a couple of years before these divisions rise from the ashes of the 2008 season.

We’ll start with the (8-7) Denver Broncos who could not win a home game last week (23-30) to the downtrodden Buffalo Bills despite knowing San Diego had won previously in the day. Denver’s demise has been a long, slow process and mostly impart to head coach/general manager Mike Shanahan’s poor drafting and bringing in aging, overpaid, overrated veteran free agents to shore up the defense and continue to play poorly. Over the years, there have been a couple of the free agents who were able to contribute but, for the most part, these aquisitions have added to the Broncos futility. Other than Champ Bailey (who missed time this year), there is very little the Broncos can offer to stop opposing offenses. The offense has been inconsistent however, it has been either “lights out” very good or nonexistent. And, maybe the most puzzling aspect of this team is winning games they probably shouldn’t (@ Atlanta, @ NY Jets) and losing games they shouldn’t (@ Kansas City, Oakland & Buffalo @ home). QB Jay Cutler (24 TD’s / 16 ints) has a big arm and one of the best targets to throw to in the NFL in WR Brandon Marshall (98 rec/1210 yds) but the team results just don’t come across. The Broncos defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL giving up 26.4 points per game. An inconsistent offense and a nonexistent defense, maybe it’s a wonder they’ve won 8 games this year.

Unlike the Broncos, the Chargers really have no excuse for how poorly they’ve played this year. The loss of LB Shawne Merriman cannot be the reason this team has performed so poorly. The average results of RB LaDanian Tomlinson also cannot be blamed. This team is full of talented players on both sides of the ball and the results are not indicitive of a team with this kind of talent. The blame must fall on head coach Norv Turner’s inability to inspire this team to better results and general manager A.J. Smith for continuing to stick with Turner. Turner maybe be one of the better offensive minds and quarterbacks coaches in the NFL but, it’s clear he is not an upper echelon head coach. Both the offense and defense rank in the top half of the NFL and their (7-9) record is inexcusable. Because of the Charger’s talent, they remain a team to be feared but, their play on the field falls far short of expectations. The best result for the Chargers would be missing the playoffs and a reason to fire Turner but, they just may win a playoff game too and then would Smith have the courage to dump Turner. The offseason could be interesting in Chargerland.

Anywho….the line for this game is San Diego - 8 with a total of 50. Denver’s inconsistency will rear it’s ugly face one more time and the Chargers will win going away but, this game stays under the total of 50.

Mike Wynn Sports

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Well this one sure looks good on paper.13-2 Tennessee Titans against the 11-4 Indianapolis Colts, and this would be a great game if it were January. Unfortunately it’s still December and both these teams are locked into their playoff spots heading into post-season. Tennessee by virtue of their big win over Pittsburgh Sunday has home field throughout the AFC playoffs, and Indianapolis at 11-4 can’t improve or worsen their number 5 seeding. So with both teams playing for nothing but pride this game will have a pre-season feel to it Sunday. So we’ll take a look at both these teams and start with the visiting Titans.

Tennessee is obviously going to be a tough out in the playoffs. Home field and a bye week are huge advantages in the playoffs historically, and this Tennessee squad is made for playoff football/ Jeff Fisher’s team plays excellent defense, they have the power running game with White & Johnson, they don’t make many mistakes, and they take care of the football. QB Kerry Collins isn’t going to wow anybody with his arm strength or foot speed, but he knows how to manage a football game, and he isn’t going to make big mistakes in big situations. With the Titans locked into the number 1 spot in the AFC though I would expect Mr. Collins to ride the pine for much of this game and we’ll actually have a Vince Young sighting. This could be an ideal spot for Vince Young to shine a bit here Sunday as the Colts will have their key defensive starters like Bob Sanders resting and getting ready for the playoffs.

On the Indianapolis side of the ball, Tony Dungy has never shied away from resting his players in these types of situations. No doubt Peyton Manning will make a cameo start here to keep his consecutive start streak going at 176 games in a row, but he’ll be out early leaving it to back up QB Jim Sorgi. Colts also have numerous starters like Bob Sanders and Joseph Addai nursing injuries and those guys won’t even see the field in this one. As far as the playoffs go the Colts are a team that nobody id going to want to play. Indianapolis has won 8 straight games since starting the season 3-4 and with Peyton Manning at the helm they have a chance against anybody anywhere. Colts will probably be as healthy as they’ve been all season heading into the playoffs and this nothing game is really just what the doctor ordered.

So with both teams resting their talent in this one I’m going to have to lean toward Tennessee laying short chalk on the road. The drop off in talent is much greater for Indianapolis than it is for Tennessee and all you have to do is look at Tony Dungy’s pre-season records as head coach to see that fact. Any other week this would be one of the marquee games on the board, but not this Sunday unless you’re a fan of Vince Young or pre-season football.

Razor Sharp Sports

NY Giants vs. Minnesota

Week 17 and still plenty of questions left unanswered in the NFL Playoff picture. Of the 12 playoff spots, 7 tickets have been punched (Giants, Panthers, Cardinals, Falcons, Titans, Steelers, & Colts). Only 5 of those teams are locked in to their spot and have nothing to play for. Of the 5 other playoff spots, 11 teams still have a shot at them. This week we have one of the teams from the first group taking on one of the teams in the second group. It is the #1 seed in the NFC, the NY Giants taking on the NFC North leading Minnesota Vikings. The Giants are locked in while the Vikings are fighting for their playoff lives. So how does this one break down.

First of all, lets look at the defending champs. The NY Giants are exactly in the position they want to be in, to defend their title. They have next week off and the NFC playoffs go through the Meadowlands. Offensively, the balance of running and passing makes them so dangerous. On the ground, “Earth, Wind & Fire” Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw make a dangerous triple threat. They spread the ball around and can handle any situation. Through the air, Eli Manning continues to get better and better. He has put together Pro Bowl numbers this year completing 60% of his passes for more than 3000 yards with 21 TDs and only 10 interceptions. Of course, Manning is without his most dangerous target in Plaxico Burress, becasue of the off-field problems, but he still has Amani Toomer, Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. Defensively, the Giants are one ofthe best stop units in the league. They rank 5th in points allowed at 18.3 and 7th in yards allowed at 289.6. They are also 1st in the NFC in turnover ratio at +8. Jason Tuck leads the unit with 12 sacks. LB Antonio Pierce leads the team in tackles with 90 and DB Corey Webster and Aaron Ross both ahve 3 interceptions. Of course, with the #1 seed being wrapped up, the Giants will more than likely rest some players and use their starters with caution.

On the opposite side of things, the Minnesota Vikings need the win. With a victory here or a Bears loss to the Texans, Minnesota would win the NFC North. Both of these games will be played at 1:00 eastern so there may be a little scoreboard watching. Of course when you talk about Minnesota, you have to talk about RB Adrian Peterson. “All Day” leads the NFL in rushing with 1657 yards. The one problem the Vikings have is that he also top amount RB’s in fumbles with 8 and fumbles lost at 4. This was seen last week when he fumbled 3 times, lossing it twice in a key match-up versus the Falcons. Another question on offense is at QB. Tavaris Jackson will get his third straight start this week. His physical tools are there but he still lacks the leadership and decision making. That could come in time, but last week when they were making the final drive of the game, Jackson wasted the final Viking timeout with the clock stopped . The defensive unit is solid and boasts the top run stopping unit in the league, allowing 73 yards per game. Last week they we without 1 of their 3 Pro Bowl defensive lineman in Pat Williams. Even without him, Falcon RB Michael Turner, who is second in the NFL in rushing was held to 70 yards. Pro Bowlers Kevins Williams (8.5 sacks) and Jared Allen (14.5 sacks) still lead the front unit. LB Chad Greenway is the teams top tackler with 108.

With these two stop units, I have to lean toward the UNDER.

Masterbets

Dolphins at Jets: Bet on the UNDER for total points

The number for this game is currently trading at 42.5 points. At that level we're getting decent value taking the "Under". Our proprietary database suggests that the correct number for total points in this game should only be 40.5 points, so there is still some wiggling room in terms of betting value.

This is obviously a huge game for both teams with a playoff spot and the AFC East crown potentially on the line. The stress levels should be palpable for both clubs and the way to handicap this game is to think of it as a playoff game and not a regular season encounter.

We expect conservative game management from both teams, and a very tense and close contest. Take the UNDER here.

Lenny Del Genio

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Prediction: Miami Dolphins

In our opinion, this is a case of wrong team favored. Or at the least, the better team is getting points. Jets QB Brett Favre has looked uncharacteristically awful in the cold weather thus far, particularly last week in a pretty unforgivable 13-3 loss at Seattle. It was the sixth time in seven tries this season that the Flyboys failed to cover when laying points. It was also their 4th loss and non-cover on the West Coast this season.New York is favored this week because they are getting Miami at home, but the cold weather wont bother the Dolphins, who put up 38 points on Kansas City in sub-zero temperatures. Under the guidance of Parcells/Sparano, this is a tough team. They have an NFL low 12 turnovers and are a league best +14 in turnover ratio. They have covered each of the last six times when getting points, winning five of those games outright and the only SU loss came by a single point. Miami wins the AFC East. Take Miami

Stephen Nover

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Under

Both Indianapolis and Tennessee have its playoff spots determined. This makes this matchup totally meaningless. It's more or less a glorified scrimmage.

We know Tony Dungy's history in preseason and in these end-of-the-year regular season situations. He either sits out or plays very sparingly his star skill position players.

Peyton Manning is going to play very little before turning the offense over to Jim Sorgi, another in the line of bad Wisconsin backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

But how will Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher approach this game? That had been the unknown until now. Fisher has made his intentions known saying both second-string quarterback Vince Young and third-stringer Chris Simms would see extensive playing time.

Young has thrown one pass since opening week. Simms is even more rusty, having not seen live action in more than two years.

Star rookie running back Chris Johnson is expected to play very little, while LenDale White doesn't figure to play at all after missing every practice this week because of illness.

The Titans are first in scoring defense, holding foes to 14.1 points per game. They rank fifth in total defense. Indianapolis is in the top 11 in scoring defense and total defense.

Both clubs will be missing star defensive players. Albert Haynesworth won't play for the Titans, while Bob Sanders has been ruled out for the Colts.

Still, that's not enough for me to get off the 'under,' considering neither team wants to show anything on offense or special teams. Their goal is to stay healthy and get through the game mainly using rusty, bad backup quarterbacks.

If you like a vanilla, boring, grind-it-out style of game featuring mainly backup quarterbacks then this is the matchup for you.

As for me it's an 'under' play at this total.

I don't like to go more than one-unit on exhibition games. So a one-unit play for me here.

Alex Smart

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
PICK: Arizona Cardinals

The NFC champion Arizona Cardinals after getting into the post season, have dropped 4 of their L/5 games and are in a desperate need of a win. The Cardinals because of their dire performances need to go into the play offs with some positive momentum on their sides, and will thus have most of their starters in the lineup this Sunday, against a lowly Seattle Seahawks team that owns a ugly 4-11 record on the season.

Here is a quote from Cardinals HC Whisenhunt: "I think what we've learned from this team is that we need to stay sharp and play well,". "So that's what our focus is this week, because we haven't played well the last two weeks because our focus hasn't been where it's needed to be. So in order to get ready for the playoffs, it's important that we play better."

With that said, look for an expect a very motivated effort from a Arizona side, that has won 5 straight divisional confrontations this season.

Final notes & Key Trends: Seattle has not faired well against top tier offenses like Arizona that score 24 or more points per game, going 1-8 ATS L/9, losing SU by an average of 14.8 PPG. The Seahawks are off a 13-3 upset win last week , which does not set up well for their betting backers since they are 0-6 ATS on the road off a win of 10 points or more,losing their following game SU by an average of 12 PPG.

Projected score: Arizona 28 Seattle 17