John Ryan
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Detroit Lions +11
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Detroit Lions - AiS shows a 72% probability that Detroit will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. Yes, even the possibility of a win is evident for this game with the AiS showing a 20% probability that Detroit will win the game. So, for fun only, I am going to wager a 1* amount, almost like charity, or perhaps a tribute to the Lions. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 48-18 ATS for 73% since 1997. Play on any team after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game and after the first month of the season. Here is a second system that REINFORCES this play that has produced a record of 37-11 ATS for 77% since 1983. Play on road dogs or pick after 7 or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. Yes, Detroit stinks and deserve to be 0-15, but there are numerous and surprising angles supporting them in this game. Detroit is a strong 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half since 1992. Take Detroit for 3* and a 1* amount on the money line.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: St. Louis Rams
A tip of the hat is in order to Mike Smith and his Falcons. Not only did they put the Michael Vick era to sleep they ushered in the Matt Ryan express in dramatic fashion going from 4-wins to the playoffs in one fell swoop. And because the NFC South Division crown is on the line Atlanta is laying more points than ever in their franchise history. Aside from bringing a horrific 0-12 ATS log at home in games off back-to-back victories in to this battle, the Rams just happen to be playing arguably their best ball of the season, picking up stat win sin each of their last two losses. Take it if you play it.
Dave Cokin
Panthers @ Saints
Play: Saints +1'
The Carolina-New Orleans clash clearly means more to the Panthers, but I like the Saints to win the game. Carolina could be vulnerable to a hangover from that demoralizing overtime loss to the Giants. Meanwhile, New Orleans showed they still want to play based on last week's performance and they will be all out to get Drew Brees into the record books with a big game today. This entire division has been amazing at home all season, and the Saints are no exception. I'm backing the Saints to close out their year with a satisfying win.
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Arizona -6 vs Seattle
Pittsburgh/Cleveland Under 32
Single Plays
Houston -3 vs Chicago
Detroit +10 vs Green Bay
New Orleans +3 vs Carolina
Baltimore -12.5 vs Jacksonville
Buffalo +6 vs New England
San Francisco -3 vs Washington
Dallas/Philadelphia Over 43
Philadelphia -1.5 vs Dallas
Tennessee/Indy Under 38
SPORTS ADVISORS
Oakland (4-11, 6-9 ATS) at Tampa Bay (9-6, 8-7 ATS)
The Buccaneers, still in the NFC wild-card race but no longer in control of their own fate, look to at least do their part when they host the Raiders at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay got smacked by San Diego 41-24 last week as a 3½-point home chalk, suffering its third straight loss and falling to 1-3 ATS in its last four starts. QB Jeff Garcia (21 of 34, 232 yards, 1 TD) took a beating in a sub-par effort, throwing two INTs – with the second one returned for the Chargers’ final TD -- as the Bucs lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed San Diego QB Philip Rivers to throw for 287 yards and four TDs.
In order to reach the playoffs, Tampa now must beat the Raiders and have the Cowboys lose to the Eagles.
Oakland upended the surging Texans 27-16 to snap a three-game SU and ATS slide, giving the SU winner an 11-1 ATS mark in the Raiders’ last 12 games. QB JaMarcus Russell (18 of 25, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) lost a fumble for Oakland’s lone turnover, but otherwise had one of his best outings of the season. He got some help from special teams, as Johnnie Lee Higgins returned a punt 80 yards for a TD.
These teams have met twice this decade, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, Oakland won 30-20 laying four points at home in 2004; two seasons earlier, Tampa ripped Oakland 48-21 in the Super Bowl giving 3½ points.
The Buccaneers are on ATS runs of 24-10-3 at home against teams with a losing road record and 4-1 as a home chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-6 on grass, 1-5 against losing teams, 1-4 in December and 1-4 in regular-season finales. The Raiders have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, including 0-5 in Week 17, 3-9 after a non-cover, 2-6 catching more than 10 points and 15-37 in December.
The under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 4-1 at home, 7-3 in Week 17 and 37-18 with the Bucs a home favorite, and the under for Oakland is on stretches of 6-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 with the Raiders a ‘dog and 38-14-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (0-15, 6-9 ATS) at Green Bay (5-10, 8-7 ATS)
The Lions hope to avoid becoming the first 0-16 team in NFL history when they travel to Lambeau Field for an NFC North clash with the Packers.
Detroit was blown out 42-7 by New Orleans as a seven-point home underdog, halting a two-game ATS uptick and moving the Lions to 1-22 SU and 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games. Detroit got 111 rushing yards and a TD out of Kevin Smith, but otherwise got steamrolled, allowing a whopping 532 totals yards while gaining just 255. QB Dan Orlovsky (10 of 23, 125 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INT) committed both his team’s turnovers.
Green Bay fell to Chicago 20-17 in overtime Monday night, losing for the fifth straight week but halting a four-game ATS skid by covering as a four-point road pup. QB Aaron Rodgers (24 of 39, 260 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent effort, and the Pack defense allowed just 210 total yards, but the Bears blocked Mason Crosby’s late 38-yard field-goal attempt, then won it on a field goal in overtime.
Green Bay is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 48-25 road victory giving three points in September, and Detroit hasn’t won SU at Lambeau since 1991. Furthermore, the home team is 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, and the Lions are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 contests in Green Bay.
Despite their recent ATS woes, the Packers are on pointspread runs of 4-0-1 ATS in Week 17, 13-3 in division play and 14-6 against losing teams. The Lions, meanwhile, are on ATS slides of 1-11 as a dog of 3½-10 points and 5-12 against the NFC, but they have cashed in their last five road games.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 17-6-1 overall, 8-2 as a home chalk, 12-3 overall as a favorite, 6-2 in division play and 9-3 at Lambeau, and the over for Detroit is on rolls of 7-2-1 overall, 18-6 on the highway and 8-2 in December. However, the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these two in Green Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Dallas (9-6, 7-8 ATS) at Philadelphia (8-6-1, 9-6 ATS)
The Cowboys, who are in a win-and-they’re-in playoff scenario, head to Lincoln Financial Field to face the NFC East rival Eagles, who need to win and get a lot of help to reach the postseason.
Dallas was bounced by Baltimore 33-24 at home last week as a five-point chalk and has now alternated SU wins and losses over its last four games. QB Tony Romo (24 of 45, 252 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had both turnovers for the Cowboys, who forced just one turnover. And after Dallas twice climbed within two points during a huge fourth quarter, the defense shockingly gave up back-to-back TD runs of 77 yards by Willis McGahee and 82 yards by Le’Ron McClain.
Philadelphia is coming off a 10-3 loss at Washington as a 4½-point favorite, halting a three-game SU and ATS surge. With the exception of the Eagles’ tie with the Bengals in Week 11, the SU winner has cashed in Philly’s last 12 games. QB Donovan McNabb didn’t get much mileage out of 46 throws, completing 26 for just 230 yards, and in a defensive slugfest, McNabb’s fumble was the game’s lone turnover.
Philadelphia is on a 4-1 ATS run (3-2 SU) in this rivalry, losing 41-37 at Dallas in September but covering as a 6½-point pup. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS uptick, and the underdog has cashed in seven of the last eight clashes between these teams.
The Cowboys are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games after a SU loss, but they are on ATS skids of 0-4 getting points, 0-5 in Week 17, 1-8 in December, 1-4 in roadies and 2-7 inside the division. The Eagles have dropped four straight ATS decisions in regular-season finales, but they carry positive ATS trends of 5-2 at home, 5-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 in the NFC East.
The under for Dallas is on runs of 5-1 in December and 6-2 in Week 17, and the under for Philadelphia is on streaks of 5-1-1 December, 6-2-1 at home, 6-2 the last week of the season and 40-15-5 with the Eagles favored. However, the total has gone high in five of the last seven meetings between these two in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
N.Y. Giants (12-3, 11-4 ATS) at Minnesota (9-6, 6-9 ATS)
The Vikings, who can claim the NFC North title with a win at the Metrodome, take on the defending Super Bowl champion Giants, who have already locked up home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs.
Minnesota fell to Arizona 24-17 as a 3½-point home favorite, ending a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS run. QB Tarvaris Jackson (22 of 36, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a fair outing as the Vikes outgained the Cardinals 350-222, but he also gave away two of his three fumbles as Minnesota lost the turnover battle, 4-0. The Falcons got 10 points off turnovers, negating an otherwise solid defensive game by the Vikings.
New York rallied to knock off Carolina 34-28 in overtime as a 3½-point home chalk in a battle for home-field advantage, giving the SU winner a 14-1 ATS mark this season in Giants game (12-0 ATS in the last 12). QB Eli Manning (17 of 27, 181 yards, 1 TD) didn’t put up big numbers, but he led a turnover-free offense that racked up an eye-popping 301 rushing yards. RB Derrick Ward went off for 215 yards on 15 carries, and RB Brandon Jacobs (24 carries, 87 yards) scored three TDs, including the game winner.
With nothing to play for, the Giants will likely rest or at least limit several key players this week.
Minnesota is 2-0 SU and ATS in its last two meetings with the Giants, both in New York, including last year’s 41-27 thumping when the Vikings picked off Manning four times and returned three for TDs. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the road team is on a 5-0 ATS tear.
The Vikings are on ATS runs of 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-2 as a favorite of 3½-10 points and 5-2 after a non-cover, but they are in pointspread funks of 1-7 in Week 17, 1-5 in December, 2-6 against the NFC and 3-7 as a favorite. The Giants, meanwhile, are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 20-6 overall, 8-1 getting points, 14-2 against winning teams and 20-6 on the highway.
The over has hit in New York’s last five Week 17 tilts and is 36-17-3 in Minnesota’s last 56 games after a SU loss, but the under is 7-2 in the Giants’ last nine games as a road ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Chicago (9-6, 6-7-2 ATS) at Houston (7-8 SU and ATS)
The Bears, who must win and get some help to keep their season going, roll into Reliant Stadium to take on the Texans.
Chicago won in overtime for the second straight week, this time edging Green Bay 20-17 on Monday night for its third consecutive SU win. However, the Bears failed to cash as a four-point home chalk. QB Kyle Orton (14 of 27, 142 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) had a mostly dismal day, but he led a late TD drive to tie the game, and Chicago forced OT when Alex Brown blocked Green Bay’s 38-yard game-winning field goal attempt in the final minute. Orton then led the Bears to the winning field goal on a seven-play drive to open the extra session.
Houston stumbled at Oakland 27-16 as a seven-point road favorite, ending a four-game SU and five-game ATS uptick and killing the Texans’ chance to post their first winning season. QB Matt Schaub (19 of 36, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) led just one first-quarter TD drive, and Houston gave up an 80-yard punt-return TD to Johnnie Lee Higgins in the fourth quarter.
These teams have met just once before, with Houston winning 24-5 as a 1½-point road underdog in 2004.
The Bears are in ATS ruts of 2-5-1 overall, 0-5-1 after a SU win and 1-5 in season finales, but they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six December starts and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a non-cover. The Texans are on ATS upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on grass, 4-1 in December and 13-4 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Chicago is on tears of 5-2 overall, 7-1 in roadies and 4-0 against losing teams, and the under for Houston is on a 5-0 spree, but the over for the Texans is on surges of 10-1 after a SU loss, 10-1 after an ATS setback and 19-7 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Carolina (11-4, 8-5-2 ATS) at New Orleans (8-7, 10-4-1 ATS)
The Panthers head to the Superdome to face the division rival Saints with a lot to play for, needing a victory to lock up the NFC South title and No. 2 playoff seed.
Carolina, which was on a 7-1 SU surge, gave the Giants all they could handle Sunday night before falling 34-28 in overtime as a 3½-point road pup. QB Jake Delhomme (11 of 19, 185 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was rather average, though he led a turnover-free effort, and RB DeAngelo Williams (24 carries, 108 yards) was again sterling, running for all four of the Panthers’ TDs. The Panthers finished with 343 yards, but they gave up 459 and let New York hold the ball for 39 minutes.
Carolina clinches the NFC South with a win here, but would slip to a No. 5 wild-card seed with a loss and a Falcons home win over the Rams.
New Orleans dumped winless Detroit 42-7 as a seven-point road chalk, improving to 5-0-1 ATS in the last six weeks (4-2 SU). QB Drew Brees (30 of 40, 351 yards, 2 TDs) had another big passing day, and the Saints added 181 rushing yards to finish with a whopping 532 total yards, while allowing just 255 to the lowly Lions.
Carolina is on a 3-1 SU and ATS roll in this NFC South rivalry, including a 30-7 rout in October as a three-point home chalk, and the Panthers are on a 7-0 ATS tear at the Superdome. In fact, the road team has cashed in 14 of the last 16 clashes between these two.
The Panthers are on pointspread hot streaks of 7-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after an ATS setback, 8-2-1 as a favorite, 4-0 as a road chalk, 5-1 in Week 17 and 5-1 in December. The Saints are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 regular-season finales and 2-5-1 ATS in their last seven after a SU win, but along with their current run, they are on ATS rolls of 4-0 at home, 4-0-1 against NFC foes and 4-1 on field turf.
The under is 7-1 in the last eight contests between these squads. However, the over for Carolina is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 6-0 against the NFC, 4-1 against winning teams and 10-4 in December, and the over for New Orleans is on runs of 14-5-1 overall, 10-1-1 at home, 8-1 in December and 11-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (2-13, 5-10 ATS) at Atlanta (10-5, 9-6 ATS)
The Falcons, who wrapped up a playoff spot with last week’s upset win at Minnesota, cap their surprisingly successful regular season with a contest at the Georgia Dome against the lowly Rams.
Atlanta dropped Minnesota 24-17 as a 3½-point road underdog for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS), as the SU winner is now 22-2 ATS in the Falcons’ last 24 games, including 14-1 ATS this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (13 of 24, 134 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t do much for an offense that finished with just 222 yards, but Atlanta also had no turnovers while its defense recovered four Vikings fumbles, turning one into a TD and another into a field goal.
An Atlanta win and a Carolina loss would give the Falcons the NFC South title and the second seed in the NFC playoffs.
St. Louis fell to San Francisco 17-16 for its ninth consecutive loss, though the Rams cashed as a 3½-point home pup to halt a two-game ATS skid. The Rams failed to take advantage of a 343-273 edge in total yards, a 4-1 turnover advantage and a nearly 2-1 edge in time of possession (38:38-21:22), blowing a 16-3 fourth-quarter lead by giving up two touchdowns in the final five minutes.
St. Louis is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Atlanta, including a 28-16 home win last season as a three-point home chalk. The favorite has cashed in the last six meetings, and the home team is on a 5-0 ATS run.
The Falcons sport ATS streaks of 4-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in regular-season finales, 6-2 at home and 5-2 as a favorite. The Rams have cashed in six of their last eight Week 17 contests, but are otherwise on a slew of negative ATS runs, including 2-6 overall, 1-5 against the NFC, 1-5 in December, 2-10 getting more than 10 points, 2-6 on the road and 8-20 against winning teams.
The over for Atlanta is on rolls of 9-3 on field turf, 6-2 in December and 8-3 at home, and the over for St. Louis is on runs of 5-1 in Week 17 and 9-4-1 in December. And in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last eight contests at the Georgia Dome and 12 of the last 16 clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Kansas City (2-13, 8-7 ATS) at Cincinnati (3-11-1, 6-9 ATS)
Two teams playing for position in the 2009 NFL draft square off when the Chiefs travel to Paul Brown Stadium to face the Bengals.
Cincinnati shut out Cleveland 14-0 as a three-point home ‘dog to win and cover for the second straight week, and the SU winner has cashed in nine of the Bengals’ last 10 games, with the exception being Cincy’s tie and cover against the Eagles in Week 11. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went 5 of 9 passing for an extremely meager 55 yards, but he had one TD toss, and RB Cedric Benson rolled up 171 yards on 38 carries. The Bengals finished with a 4-1 edge in turnovers, returning one for a touchdown, and allowed just 182 yards.
Kansas City went back and forth with Miami before losing 38-31 as a 3½-point home pup, halting a three-game ATS uptick as the Chiefs lost SU for the third straight week. Kansas City outgained Miami 492-403, but lost the turnover battle 4-2, as QB Tyler Thigpen threw three INTs, including one on the Chiefs’ final possession.
In four meetings this decade, these teams have each gone 2-2 SU and ATS, with the SU winner cashing in all four games. Last year, Kansas City posted a 27-20 home win catching one point.
The Bengals are on a 4-1 ATS run in December, but they are still on pointspread backslides of 1-7 as a favorite, 0-4 as a home chalk, 2-9 against the AFC, 3-9 after a spread-cover and 4-9 against losing teams. The Chiefs, despite their ugly SU record, are on ATS upticks of 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 4-1 in Week 17, 4-1 in December and 5-2 against AFC foes.
The under for Cincinnati is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall, 8-1 in December, 5-1 after a SU win and 7-2-1 at home, and the under for Kansas City is on runs of 6-1 in Week 17, 5-1 against losing teams and 4-1 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Jacksonville (5-10, 4-11 ATS) at Baltimore (10-5, 11-4 ATS)
The Ravens can lock up the AFC’s final wild-card spot with a win over the Jaguars at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore stunned Dallas 33-24 as a five-point road chalk in a Saturday game, improving to 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games. QB Joe Flacco (17 of 25, 149 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t have a big day, but his fumble was the lone turnover for Baltimore and led to the Cowboys’ only first-half TD. The Ravens got fourth-quarter TD runs of 77 yards from Willis McGahee and 82 yards from Le’Ron McClain to stem a Cowboys comeback. McClain (22 carries, 139 yards) and McGahee (8 carries, 108 yards) helped Baltimore pile up 265 rushing yards.
Jacksonville lost to Indianapolis 31-24 getting 5½ points at home last Thursday, dropping the Jags to 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. QB David Garrard (28 of 41, 329 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was solid, and in an otherwise very even contest, Garrard was sacked on second-and-goal from the 7-yard line on the last play of the game.
The SU winner is now 24-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 26 games (14-1 ATS this year), and the winner has cashed in the Jaguars’ last 11 games.
These former division rivals haven’t met since 2005, when Jacksonville rolled 30-3 as a 6½-point home favorite. However, the underdog is 10-4-3 ATS in the last 17 series clashes.
The Ravens are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 8-2 overall, 6-0 against losing teams, 5-1 as a chalk and 6-2 at home. On the flip side, the Jaguars are on ATS freefalls of 0-5 against the AFC, 3-13 on grass, 1-4 as a ‘dog, 1-4 in December and 1-4 against winning teams.
The over for Baltimore is on tears of 7-2-1 overall, 7-0 against losing teams and 5-1 versus AFC foes, and the over for Jacksonville is on rolls of 10-3 in December, 9-3-1 with the Jags a road pup and 12-4-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 8-1 in Baltimore and 12-4-1 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Tennessee (13-2, 12-3 ATS) at Indianapolis (11-4, 7-8 ATS)
The scorching-hot Colts, locked in as a wild card and the No. 5 playoff seed in the AFC, close the regular season at Lucas Oil Stadium against the Titans, who have already clinched the AFC’s top seed.
Indianapolis rallied past Jacksonville 31-24 as a 5½-point road favorite last Thursday for its eighth straight victory (4-4 ATS). QB Peyton Manning (29 of 34, 364 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had a huge day in carrying most of the load, completing his first 17 passes, and the Colts, who trailed 14-0 and 24-14, clinched the victory when Dwight Freeney sacked David Garrard on second-and-goal from the 7-yard line in the waning seconds.
Tennessee bounced back from a loss at Houston to upend Pittsburgh 31-14 getting one point at home, earning home-field playoff advantage in the process and moving the SU winner to 14-1 ATS this season in Titans games. QB Kerry Collins (20 of 29, 215 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and the Tennessee D forced four turnovers – all committed by Ben Roethlisberger, on two INTs and two lost fumbles. The Titans converted the turnovers into 21 points.
Tennessee is on a 5-0 ATS tear (3-2 SU) in this AFC South rivalry, including a 31-21 home win giving four points two months ago. The Titans won last year at Indy 16-10 as a four-point chalk, but they needed that game to reach the playoffs, while the Colts pulled QB Peyton Manning by the second quarter. Neither team has anything to play for today.
The Colts have failed to cash in their last six regular-season finales and are on further ATS declines of 1-8-1 after a spread-cover, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-7 at home and 4-11 inside the division, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts as a home ‘dog. The Titans, meanwhile, are 6-1 SU and ATS on the road this season and carry additional ATS streaks of 7-1 as a road chalk, 14-3 in the AFC South, 10-3 after a SU win, 8-3 after a spread-cover and 9-4 in December.
The under for Indianapolis is on runs of 8-2 in Week 17 and 4-1 with the Colts a home pup, and the under for Tennessee is on streaks of 7-2 in roadies, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 5-2 with the Titans a road chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last seven meetings overall and six of the last seven in Indy.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cleveland (4-11, 7-8 ATS) at Pittsburgh (11-4, 8-7 ATS)
The Steelers, already set as the AFC’s No. 2 seed, conclude the regular season with a meaningless contest against the division rival Browns at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh saw a five-game SU and four-game ATS surge come to an end in last week’s 31-14 loss at Tennessee as a one-point road chalk, losing a shot at home-field advantage in the process. QB Ben Roethlisberger (25 of 39, 329 yards, 2 TDs) had a decent statistical day entirely offset by committing all four Steelers turnovers – two fumbles and two INTs, with one INIT returned 83 yards for a score in the final minute. Roethlisberger’s miscues led to 21 Titans points.
Cleveland ran its losing streak to five in a row (1-4 ATS) with last week’s 14-0 home loss to Cincinnati as a three-point favorite, giving the SU winner an 11-1-1 ATS mark in the Browns’ last 13 contests. Cleveland gaining just 182 total yards in the defeat, lost the turnover battle 4-1, and the defense allowed Bengals RB Cedric Benson to run for a career-high 171 yards on 38 carries.
Pittsburgh is on a 10-game winning streak against the Browns, going 7-2-1 ATS, all from the favorite’s role. However, Cleveland has cashed in the last two meetings, including a 10-6 loss as a six-point home underdog back in Week 2.
The Steelers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 December games, but they are also 1-5 ATS in their last six as a double-digit chalk. The Browns have cashed in five of their last six season-finales and are on a 14-5-1 ATS run against winning teams, but they are on negative pointspread runs of 2-5 against the AFC, 1-4 in December and 2-5 after a SU loss.
The over for Pittsburgh is on a bevy of streaks, including 11-3 against the AFC, 7-2 in Week 17, 37-15-2 at home and 13-6-1 inside the division, and in this rivalry, the over is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall and 5-0-1 in Pittsburgh. But the under for Cleveland is on streaks of 14-6-1 overall, 5-0-1 in Week 17 and 8-1-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami (10-5, 7-8 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (9-6, 7-8 ATS)
The Dolphins, who can win the AFC East title with a victory or fall out of the playoffs with a loss, travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Jets, who need a win and some help to reach the postseason.
Miami held off a game Kansas City squad 38-31 as a 3½-point road favorite for its fourth consecutive victory (2-2 ATS). In a game that went back-and-forth all day, QB Chad Pennington (26 of 34, 235 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) led a 13-play, 85-yard TD drive to chew up more than half the fourth quarter, hitting Anthony Fasano with a 14-yard TD pass for the only score of the final frame. The Dolphins also won the turnover battle 4-2, picking off Tyler Thigpen on the Chiefs’ final possession.
New York continued its late-season swoon, losing at Seattle 13-3 as a 3½-point chalk and falling to 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in its last four starts. QB Brett Favre (18 of 31, 187 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) was woefully ineffective in cold, snowy weather, with the Jets’ only score coming on a first-quarter field goal. The New York defense allowed RB Maurice Morris to rush for 116 yards on 29 carries in the snow.
While Miami wins the AFC East with a victory today, the Jets need a win and a Patriots loss at Buffalo to claim the division title.
New York has dominated this divisional rivalry, going 9-0-1 ATS (8-2 SU) in the last 10 clashes, including a 20-14 road win giving three points to open the 2008 campaign. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests, but the Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings at the Meadowlands.
The Dolphins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 AFC East contests, but they are on ATS surges of 5-1 on the highway, 4-0 as a road ‘dog and 6-2 against winning teams. The Jets are on ATS upticks of 4-1 against winning teams and 9-3 in Week 17, but are otherwise on pointspread slides of 0-4 in December, 0-4 as a favorite, 1-5 after a SU loss and 1-4 after an ATS setback.
The under for Miami is on stretches of 7-2 overall and 11-3 after a SU win, and the under is 6-1 in New York’s last seven December games, but the over for the Jets is on runs of 6-2-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0-1 against winning teams and 5-0-1 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
New England (10-5, 8-7 ATS) at Buffalo (7-8 SU and ATS)
The Patriots, needing a victory and some help to get into the postseason, travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to take on the Bills.
New England razed Arizona 47-7 as a nine-point home chalk for its third straight win (2-1 ATS) and second straight double-digit blowout. QB Matt Cassel (20 of 36, 345 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had a huge day in the snow, leading a turnover-free offense that finished with a whopping 514 total yards, while the Pats defense yielded just 186 yards and forced two turnovers.
The Patriots clinch the AFC East with a victory and a Miami loss to the Jets, or could earn a wild-card berth with a victory and a Baltimore loss at home to Jacksonville.
Buffalo upended Denver 30-23 catching six points on the road to end a three-game SU skid and cash for the second straight week. The Bills rallied from 13-0 second-quarter deficit, and despite giving up an eye-popping 532 total yards – including 359 through the air – while gaining barely half that at 275, Buffalo got the win by outscoring the Broncos 14-3 in the final quarter. The Bills won the turnover battle 2-0, including a key fourth-quarter INT.
New England is on a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS run in this rivalry, including four straight wins and covers after a 20-10 home victory giving 3½ points earlier this season. The Pats are also on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in Buffalo (including last year’s 56-10 beatdown as a 16-point chalk), and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Patriots are on ATS downfalls of 2-8 after a spread-cover, 2-7 against losing teams and 4-11 after a SU win, but they also sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 in Week 17, 16-5 as a road chalk, 35-16-1 overall on the highway and 35-16-1 in AFC East play. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a home ‘dog, but they are on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 1-4 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 1-4 in division play and 2-7 against winning teams.
The over for New England is on rolls of 6-0 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-0 as a road favorite and 7-3 overall on the highway, and the over for Buffalo is on runs of 15-6 in December, 7-3-1 at home and 8-2-1 on turf. However, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in 16 of the last 21 contests, and the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings at Ralph Wilson.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Seattle (4-11, 7-7-1 ATS) at Arizona (8-7 SU and ATS)
The Cardinals, who have already clinched the NFC West but are coming off consecutive blowout losses, hope to regain some momentum at University of Phoenix Stadium, where they’ll face the Seahawks in Seattle’s last game under retiring coach Mike Holmgren.
One week after an ugly 35-14 home loss to Minnesota, Arizona went to snowy New England last week and got plastered 47-7 as an eight-point underdog, falling to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. QB Kurt Warner was an absolutely dismal 6 of 18 for 30 yards (0 TDs, 0 INTs) before getting yanked in the third quarter, and his backup wasn’t much better as Matt Leinart was 6 of 14 for 138 yards and a TD, with one INT and a lost fumble. The Cards finished with just 186 total yards while allowing 514, and they lost the time-of-possession battle by more than 17 minutes (38:35-21:25).
Seattle dealt a big blow to the Jets’ playoff hopes last Sunday, winning 13-3 as a 3½-point home pup for its second straight win and third straight cover. QB Seneca Wallace (18 of 25, 175 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was steady in the snow, and RB Maurice Morris (29 carries, 116 yards) also had a solid day. The Seahawks defense gave up only a first-quarter field goal and picked off a pair of Brett Favre passes.
Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four contests with Seattle, including a 26-20 road win giving three points last month. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the favorite is on a 5-2 ATS run.
Along with their current 1-4 ATS skid, the Cardinals are on pointspread plunges of 2-7 giving 3½-10 points and 2-5 in December, but they still carry positive ATS trends of 5-0 in season finales, 5-1 in division play and 13-6 after a SU loss. The Seahawks are on ATS dips of 1-6 after a SU win and 3-7 after a spread-cover, but they sport spread-covering streaks of 8-2 inside the division, 8-2 in December and 4-1 on the highway.
The over for Arizona is on a plethora of hot streaks, including 41-20 overall, 8-1 at home, 4-1 in the NFC West and 16-5 in December, and the over for Seattle is on stretches of 4-1-1 in division games, 26-11 on grass and 21-10 with the Seahawks a road pup. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the over has hit in four straight games at Arizona and is 7-2 in the last nine meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Washington (8-7, 6-8-1 ATS) at San Francisco (6-9, 7-8 ATS)
Two teams playing out the string get together when the Redskins make the cross-country trek to Monster Park to face the 49ers.
San Francisco edged St. Louis 17-16, and though the Niners failed to cover as a 3½-point road favorite, they are still 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games. The 49ers had a dismal first three quarters, falling behind 16-3, and QB Shaun Hill (18 of 34, 216 yards, 2 TDs) threw three INTs as San Fran lost the turnover battle 4-1 and the time-of-possession battle by more than 17 minutes. However, Hill rebounded with two fourth-quarter TD passes in the final five minutes to give the Niners the win.
Washington got a too-little, too-late 10-3 victory over Philadelphia as a 4½-point home ‘dog, snapping a season-killing three-game SU and ATS slide, and the SU winner is now 20-1-1 ATS in the Redskins’ last 22 games (13-1-1 ATS this season). In a defensive struggle, Washington gained just 249 total yards, while allowing 275, but the Redskins won the turnover battle 1-0 and allowed only a third-quarter field goal.
These teams last met in 2005, with Washington steamrolling to a 52-17 victory as a 13½-point home favorite. A year earlier, Washington won 26-16 at San Francisco giving seven points.
The 49ers are on ATS surges of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on grass. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven December starts, but the pointspread trends drop off from there for Washington, including 1-5-1 overall, 0-4-1 as a ‘dog of three points or less and 3-12-2 against losing teams.
The under for San Francisco is on runs of 4-0 overall and 4-0 in December, but the over is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five at home and is on a 9-2 run with the Niners a home chalk. The under for Washington is on tears of 16-5-1 overall, 5-0 with the Redskins getting points, 4-0 in December, 4-0-1 on the road and 7-3 in regular-season finales.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
Denver (8-7, 4-10-1 ATS) at San Diego (7-8, 6-8-1 ATS)
The top two teams in a rotten division square off at Qualcomm Stadium, where the surging Chargers will face the freefalling Broncos, with the winner claiming the AFC West crown.
San Diego knocked off Tampa Bay 41-24 as a 3½-point road underdog and has now followed a three-game SU skid with three consecutive victories (2-1 ATS). QB Philip Rivers (21 of 31, 287 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) and RB LaDainian Tomlinson (21 carries, 90 yards) led a nearly flawless Chargers offense, and the defense helped San Diego forge a 3-0 turnover edge. Rookie CB Antoine Cason put the game away by returning an INT 59 yards for a TD late in the fourth quarter.
Denver, looking to avoid becoming the first team to ever blow a three-game division lead with three games to play, tumbled to Buffalo 30-23 for its second consecutive loss and third straight ATS setback. The Broncos outgained the Bills 532-275, getting 359 passing yards from QB Jay Cutler. But Cutler (two rushing TDs) had no TD passes, Denver lost the turnover battle 2-0, and Buffalo outscored the Broncos 14-3 in the fourth quarter.
San Diego is on a 4-0-1 ATS run (4-1 SU) in this rivalry, getting the push in an extremely controversial 39-38 loss at Denver back in Week 2. Prior to that, the Chargers had posted three straight blowout wins against the Broncos by a combined score of 112-26. This series has had several pushes recently, with the favorite on a 5-2-4 ATS run.
The Chargers boast several positive pointspread streaks, including 7-1 in December, 20-7-4 inside the AFC West, 11-4 after a SU win, 10-4 at home and 7-3-1 against winning teams. Conversely, the Broncos are on numerous ATS nosedives, including 10-28-1 overall, 1-5 in December, 3-13-1 in division play, 3-13-1 against losing teams and 6-13 on the highway.
The under for San Diego is on runs of 7-3-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home and 6-1-1 against the AFC, and the under is 7-3-1 in the Broncos’ last 11 starts, as well. But the over for Denver is on stretches of 13-3-2 after a SU loss, 9-3 in the AFC West, 9-3-2 a ‘dog and 9-4-1 on the road. Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Northern Illinois (6-6, 6-5 ATS) vs. Louisiana Tech (7-5, 5-6 ATS) (at Shreveport, La.)
Two teams that finished the regular season with outright losses and barely met bowl eligibility get together when Northern Illinois travels south to meet Louisiana Tech, which will have a virtual home game playing an hour from its campus.
Louisiana Tech dropped its regular-season finale to Nevada 35-31 on Nov. 29, finishing in a three-way tie for second place in the Western Athletic Conference. That halted the Bulldogs’ four-game SU winning streak, but they cashed as a 4½-point home underdog to snap a two-game ATS slide. Louisiana Tech got a solid outing from QB Ross Jenkins (17 of 31, 258 yards, 2 TDs), but it blew a 31-21 lead by getting outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter, and the Bulldogs defense allowed Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick to pass for 397 yards and four TDs.
The Huskies, who at 5-3 finished in the bottom half of the Mid-American Conference’s West Division, fell to non-conference foe Navy 16-0 as a three-point home chalk in their finale on Nov. 25. Northern Illinois finished 1-3 SU and 1-4 ATS down the stretch, and against the Midshipmen, QB Chandler Harnish threw for a mere 116 yards, and his two INTs were the game’s only turnovers.
Louisiana Tech is making its first bowl appearance in seven years and only its fifth overall (1-2-1 SU), most recently losing to Clemson 49-24 as a 6½-point pup in the 2001 Humanitarian Bowl. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, is in its fourth bowl game overall but its third in the past four years (1-1 SU and ATS). Back in 2006, the Huskies went to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego and got blown out by TCU 37-7 as a 12-point underdog.
La. Tech’s offense averages 25.2 points and 352.2 total yards per game, including a solid 195.2 ypg on the ground (24th in the nation), paced by RBs Daniel Porter (1,086 yards, 8 TDs, 5.3 yards per carry) and Patrick Jackson (644 yards, 8 TDs, 4.7 ypc). Jenkins, who took over as the starting QB midway through the season, passed for 1,011 yards with seven TDs and three INTs.
Northern Illinois puts up 25.3 points and 335.1 ypg (173.1 rushing ypg), with five players rushing for at least 200 yards, led by Me’co Brown (508 yards, 2 TDs). Meanwhile, Harnish, a redshirt freshman, completed 98 of 171 passes for 1,342 yards, but his seven TDs were offset by seven INTs.
Defensively, the Bulldogs allow 24.8 ppg and 381.1 ypg. However, while La. Tech gives up just 101.3 rushing ypg, which ranks 11th nationally, it rates 117th out of 120 Division I-A teams in pass defense at 280 ypg allowed. As for the Huskies, they finished in the top 20 in three defensive categories, allowing 18.1 ppg (16th), 303.7 total ypg (20th) and 162.5 passing ypg (5th).
The Bulldogs have cashed in nine of their last 11 games against the MAC, but they are otherwise on ATS slides of 1-4 in December, 7-22-1 following a spread-cover and 7-20 in non-conference play. Along with their current 1-4 ATS skid overall, the Huskies are in pointspread ruts of 2-5 against winning teams and 5-12 as a favorite.
The over is 4-1 in La. Tech’s last five overall, but otherwise the under for the Bulldogs is on runs of 5-1 outside the WAC and 7-3 after a spread-cover, and the under for Northern Illinois is on stretches of 19-7-1 overall, 4-1 outside the MAC and 8-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Nostradamus
NBA-New York +3.5
NFL-Tampa Bay -13
NFL-Buffalo +5.5
NFL-Tennessee -3
NFL-Cleveland +11
NFL-Detroit +12
NFL-Arizona -7
CBB-Rice +10
CBB-Louisiana Tech +26
CBB-Valparaiso +24.5
NHL-Minnesota +105
Wild Bill
La Tech +1 1/2 (5 units)
on Louisiana turf and home field advantage basically for the Techsters....LT 24 NIU 20...
Detroit +9 1/2 (5 units)
Eagles -1 1/2 (5 units)
Giants +6 1/2 (5 units)
Carolina -2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 44 Rams-Falcons (5 units)
Chiefs +2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 35 1/2 Jags-Ravens (5 units)
Under 38 Titans-Colts (5 units)
Over 32 Browns-Steelers (5 units)
Jets -2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 41 Dolphins-Jets (5 units)
Bills +6 1/2 (5 units)
Broncos +8 (5 units)
Over 50 Broncos-Chargers (5 units)
7 pt teaser: Eagles +5 1/2, Giants +14, Over 28 Ravens-Jags, Over 34 Dolphins-Jets (5 units)
John Fina
Selection: Buffalo Bills +6
Reason: Put us down on the Buffalo Bills +6 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. When the final week of the NFL season approaches, motivational levels are of particular interest to any handicapper worth his salt. At first glance, it looks like the Patriots are well motivated since they’ll need a win to have their chance at the playoffs, but a closer look reveals that‘s not so. However, the lines makers have to go with the ‘obvious’ because there is no other option other than making New England the road favorite. The masses don’t care about reality and are backing the Patriots all the way, because for them this is a must win game. In their eyes, a must win translates to an easy win regardless of the validity. While the obvious points towards Patriot motivation, the reality is that the Bills have the true driving force. Buffalo has their eye on beating their Archenemy New England. A frustrated Buffalo’s DE Chris Kesay said “ It’s at the highest point, the very first game I played as a professional was against them and we won. I haven’t won since. To end the season with a win against them would be fantastic”. If you look close enough you can see that the motivational edge no doubt goes to the Bills. Buffalo has had issues with the Patriots this season, and one of the biggest is the insipid offense. Out of ten games, Buffalo has had an average of only 238 yards per game compared with a NFL average of 326 yards per game. The Bills have only matched that average in 2 out of their 10 games vs. New England. However, we strongly expect the Bills to turn it around this time while the Patriots will definitely suffer the loss of Teddy Bruschi and Adalius Thomas, and most likely Richard Seymour. New England’s defense no doubt did well in the snow last week but they are not doing so well now. Against Denver last week the Bills played an exceptional game, and there is no reason why they won‘t do the same here. That performance was not only because of Buffalo’s motivational level, but also because head Coach Dick Jauron is in trouble and his loyal team responded accordingly. Bills’ DT Marcus Stroud had this to say about Juaron’s job “…if that’s going to determine whether he’ll be here next year or not, we’re going to try to turn it up an extra notch and play that much better.” In their last 9 games as home underdogs, the Bills are 7-2 against the spread. The Patriots are only 2-7 against the spread in 9 games against an opponent that has a losing record. Take the Buffalo Bills +6!
Team Who2beton
The New England Patriots handled the Buffalo Bills rather easily in their first meeting this year, as the game was not as close as the 20-10 score would indicate, and with their playoff hopes on the line, we look for the proud Patriots to rise up with an emphatic win here.
Sure, this game is in Buffalo, and the Bills have continued to play hard, even crippling the playoff hopes of the Denver Broncos on the road last week. However, the Patriots have not minded visiting Buffalo the last three years, winning by scores of 56-10, 28-6 and 35-7, and we expect that “take no prisoners” approach to resurface here again, especially after New England annihilated Arizona 47-7 last week.
While the Bills deserve credit for not quitting on this season despite being eliminated a long time ago, they are simply outclassed by the Patriots under normal circumstances, and this is a worst spot than usual for them, with New England in desperation mode.
The Bills upset the Broncos despite getting outgained by 257 total yards last week, and the Pats will not let them off the hook with a similar performance.
While we do not expect a replay of the 56-10 final here last season, we do look for a safe double-digit New England win.
Pick: Patriots -6.5
Jeff Benton
For Sunday’s free play in the NFL, we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in their home game against Seattle.
Never has a game that has meant absolutely nothing meant so much. Yes, Arizona long ago wrapped up the NFC West title, but after three dreadful performances in their last four games, including the last two weeks in a row, the Cardinals desperately need a dominating showing today against a dead Seahawks team because they desperately want some sort of momentum going into the playoffs.
Here’s how bad the Cardinals have been of late: They’re 1-4 SU and ATS over the last five weeks, and their defense has allowed 37, 48, 35 and 47 points in the four losses (by the way, the one victory was a 34-10 home blowout of the hapless Rams). Even more disturbing is the fact that, over the past two weeks, Arizona’s once unstoppable offense has been stopped dead in its tracks, producing just two offensive touchdowns in losses to the Vikings and Patriots.
So while most coaches in this spot would rest his starters, there’s no way that Ken Whisenhunt does that, not after that 47-7 debacle in New England last week and the 35-14 home loss to Minnesota the week prior. Whisenhunt needs to get his team’s confidence back, and the only way he does that is with a dominating win over a 4-11 opponent – the same opponent that Arizona manhandled six weeks ago. It was back on Nov. 16 when the Cardinals went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks 26-20 – a final score that was very misleading, as Arizona had leads of 13-0 and 26-7 before coasting home in the fourth quarter and finishing with a 458-196 advantage in total yards.
Yes, the Seahawks have sprung to life the last two weeks with victories over the Rams on the road (23-20) and Jets at home (13-3). However, last week’s win over Brett Favre and the Jets was Seattle’s Super Bowl, as the players badly wanted to give outgoing coach Mike Holmgren a win in his final home game after 10 years leading the Seahawks. After accomplishing that goal, I don’t think the Seahawks could possibly care less about this one today in Arizona.
The Cardinals have cashed in five straight season-finales, they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six NFC West clashes (4-1 this year) and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite. Also, they were able to upset much better Seahawks teams the last two years when Seattle visited Arizona – and frankly, Arizona had much less to play for in those two games than it does now! Lay the points and look for Kurt Warner and Co. to get their mojo back in a big way.
5♦ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Scott Delaney
Today's Selection
We're playing the 49ers over Washington as your comp winner, as Mike Singletary solidifies his new job by guiding his team to a convincing win in the season finale.
First of all, the 'Skins earned their big win last week with a 10-3 victory thanks to a goal-line stand against the Eagles at the end of the game. So to muster up another round of emotional energy like that is going to be near-impossible, especially across the country against a rejuvenated defense that has allowed just three rushing touchdowns and an average of 90.9 rushing yards per game since Singletary was named interim coach on Oct. 21.
You better believe the Niners' front line will be ready for Clinton Portis. In fact, the entire stop unit will be prepared for the entire Washington offense, which is scoring a meager 16.1 points per game, which ranks 28th in the league.
San Fran looked admirable last week, as Shaun Hill threw two touchdown passes in the final 4:03 to help San Francisco erase a 16-3 deficit and win for the fourth time in six games, defeating the Rams, 17-16.
Adding punch to this offense, not to mention a taste of veteran leadership, is Isaac Bruce, who became the fifth player in NFL history to catch 1,000 passes when he hauled in a 3-yard touchdown reception with 4:03 left in the game. He also climbed into the No. 2 slot all time in receiving yards, second only to Jerry Rice now.
And if we get Frank Gore back, as expected after he's missed the the last two games with a sprained ankle, we could be previewing the well-balanced threat out of the NFC West for 2009, in this year's season finale.
Washington is spinning its wheels against the spread, as it is mired in ATS skids of 3-14 against teams with a losing record and 1-6 overall. So we lay the chalk with a Niners team that is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall and 4-1 against teams with a winning record.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday lay the points with San Diego.
Do I fully trust these Chargers? Probably not as they have had a ton of issues this season and Norv Turner has proven over and over again that he is not the best man for the head coaching job but in this spot with the division on the line I have no qualms backing Rivers, LT, Gates and the superior home boys.
Denver has been a schizo team all season long. At times they are horrific like when they lost to the Raiders at home but they also have gone on the road and won at Atlanta and New York against the Jets as big dogs. Jay Cutler is a stud and Brandon Marshall leads a talented Wide Receiver corps. So there is an upside and some talent there for the Broncos but Mike Shanahan's team has also been choking ridiculously over the past month after pretty much appearing to have wrapped up the division when San Diego was 4-8. Also Denver has not been able to run the ball or stop the run and that could be deadly against San Diego.
We all remember the first game between these teams where San Diego really won the game late but referee Ed Hochuli screwed up giving the home Broncos another crack at it and an ensuing victory. Therefore if there was ever such a thing as Karma on your side this would be just that spot.
The division is up for grabs and the crowd should be nuts helping the Chargers take care of business as the Broncos full implosion climaxes right here,.
Jake Timlin
Your Sunday selection is the Denver Broncos.
Last game of the regular season and a win or go home contest I look for a very closer then expect game as Denver stays inside the number. I mean despite the Broncos late season slide they do have enough offensive talent to match points with the Chargers as Denver thrives as an underdog lately having covered 3 of their last 4 games when grabbing points. Plus, giving the fact that it was Denver who outlasted San Diego already this season by one points in their week two shootout I full expect another close game. Meanwhile, the main reason tonight’s game stays close is due to the fact that the winner advances to the playoffs and the loser stays home making tonight a very interesting. Flat out, while I don’t expect a Denver outright win I do expect for the Broncos to hang close as they stay staying within a touchdown tonight. The play here is Denver plus the points.
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
Hey, what else did you expect? Of course I nailed Miami yesterday against Cal. The Hurricanes came through for us and we’re going to keep that going today.
We’re staying on the gridiron, but headed to the pros as we’re going out to Philadelphia where we’re taking the Eagles at home against the Dallas Cowboys.
While the Cowboys are still the sexy, chic team everyone wants in the playoffs (mostly for ratings) the team just isn’t what everyone thinks it is.
In fact, over the last three weeks Dallas has proven how good it really isn’t. Forget that fluke game against the Giants two weeks ago, because New York’s collective state of mind was in the garbage due to one Plaxico Burress. But playing against physical, creative blitzing teams like Pittsburgh and Baltimore has shown how weak Dallas really is.
The Cowboys have looked ineffective offensively against the defenses, and on the other side of the ball, Baltimore proved how susceptible Dallas is against the run.
Also consider that the Cowboys are only 1-4 SU and ATS their last five games on the road, where they’ve been outscored, on average, 25.8-15.8.
Now the Cowboys battle an Eagles team that’s been dominant for much of the last month, going 3-1 SU and ATS, with the only loss coming in a look-ahead game last week against the Washington Redskins.
However, including that game, Philly has outscored its opponents the last four weeks an average of 25.2-13.5.
Also consider that earlier this year the Eagles hung with the Cowboys in Irving, losing 41-37 as a 6 1/2 point underdog. And over their last five meetings the Eagles are 4-1 ATS against Dallas.
Philly will deny Dallas a trip to the playoffs and get over today. Take the Eagles at home today.
3♦ EAGLES