Matt Fargo
Drake vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville -3
Drake is off to another solid start but it helps that it has played the 289th ranked schedule in the nation. Its best win this season came last time out against Iowa, who is not a very good team just because it is from the Big Ten, but any momentum from that win is gone since it took place eight days ago. The Bulldogs are on a seven-game winning streak and that does include one road win at Iowa St. in a game that never should have been won. They shot 39.2 percent from the floor but were the beneficiaries of some extra foul calls as they went to the free throw line 26 times compared to just six for the Cyclones. Josh Young is one of the best players in the MVC and teamed with Jonathan Cox, they form one of the better inside-outside combos in the conference. The problem is turnovers as the Bulldogs are posting a 0.98 A/TO ratio which is horrible based on the schedule played.
Evansville meanwhile has a ratio of 1.09 and a ratio margin of +0.32 while the Bulldogs have a margin of -0.11. The Purple Aces are a perfect 8-0 at home and some of those wins have come against some quality teams in Austin Peay, Buffalo and Western Kentucky. Arguably their best game of the season was a loss however. Evansville dropped an 18-point decision at North Carolina which isn’t bad considering the Tar Heels have been destroying most teams that get in their way. The Purple Aces shot 46.4 percent and posted a 1.36 assist/turnover ratio and if not for a feeble 7-15 effort from the free throw line, the score could have been even closer. This is revenge time for a series sweep against the Bulldogs last season but even a much more dominant Drake team had trouble, winning the two games by just eight and three points. 3* Evansville Purple Aces
David Malinsky
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans
PICK: Houston Texans
By waiting until game day we have not been able to get the best of the number in this one, but note that all that has done is lower our * Rating – what would have been a stronger play is simply played as a regular selection, in a situation that is too good to pass up.
Over the course of a long football season the ball can take some amazing bounces, and they do not always correct. This game is a good example. Consider the following – Team A is a net of +82 first downs and +1,022 yards better than Team B, and has accomplished that vs. a tougher schedule (#7 vs. #14 on our best set of ratings). They come in with an added day of rest, with Team B having to travel off of a draining overtime game on Monday night.
So what is the line for this mismatch, the home team is 8 or -9? Hardly. They are not even pricing this one as a full home field advantage. That is what the oddsmakers are forced to do based on the standings, and the fact that the bears take the field still alive for the playoffs. But in this case the standings are not an accurate measurement of the teams at all, and once again we have a setting in which the need could actually hurt, rather than help, a team. Mediocre squads like the Bears will more often than not play poorly under pressure, rather than play well. And after three straight home games, it is an environment fraught with peril for Lovie Smith’s squad.
The Bear offense has struggled all season to find consistency, netting only 6.08 yards per pass and less than 4.0 per rush. Far too much has had to fall on the shoulders of rookie Matt Forte, and it has taken a toll. Meanwhile a defense that has relied on the leadership of Mike Brown for so long will be without him this week, and note the issues that brings for this particular matchup – both Kevin Payne and rookie Craig Steltz, who is forced into his first start, are natural strong safeties, who are better in run support than in defending the pass. Matt Schaub and a deep corps of receivers can exploit that weakness, and we believe that they have the mentality to attack loosely and aggressively here. And while the special teams have been a major part of the Chicago success this season, key cogs Hunter Hillenmeyer, Marcus Hamilton and Kevin Jones are all expected to miss this one.
To get the better team in a relaxed and confident mode against a tight underdog is an outstanding situation, especially in this price range.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arizona -6.5
Arizona has been blown out each of the last two weeks and has lost four of its last five. This team knows it needs to win to go into the playoffs on a positive note and there's no better team to do it against than the one that has been the class of this division. Arizona is a perfect 5-0 in division games and 4-1 ATS in those contests and would love to finish the season undefeated in division play. Seattle is just 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons, getting crushed by an average score of 13.6 to 28.4 in these spots. Arizona is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 31.2 to 18.7 in these spots. Lay the points.
Drew Gordon
New England at BUFFALO +6
Line on this contest speaks volumes, because it falls under the category of: "if it looks to good to be true, it probably is." Look guys, I can understand being tempted to lay less than a TD with a Patriots team that just destroyed Arizona, and also obviously needs a win here, but that would be HUGE mistake and here's why:
First things first, this is a divisional rivalry with plenty of bad blood, and you best believe the Bills will be relishing their role as spoiler in their home finale. A nice 30-23 win at Denver last week is exactly the kind of confidence-boosting springboard win Buffalo needed to get ready for this contest. I believe we see the Bills build off that win with a strong effort this afternoon at home.
Second, if you want a game to compare today's match up to, consider the Patriots trip to Seattle in Week 14. The public was all over the Pats laying about a TD, with Seneca Wallace starting at QB for the 'Hawks... And what happened? The game was very competitve, as Wallace threw for 212 yards and 3 TDs with 0 picks! We saw Trent Edwards return last week against the Broncos, and all of a sudden, the Bills looked good again. Look for Edwards to remain sharp in today's match up at home.
Finally, did you know the Patriots have beaten the Bills 10 straight times?! Again, ask yourself: If the Patriots need a win, are the better team, and are playing against an unmotivated foe, why is the price so inviting? Before you go jumping on what looks like a bargain, remember, Vegas doesn't do "bargains," they do traps, and this one has danger written all over it for Patriots-backers.
Take Buffalo plus the points over New England in this NFL match up.
2♦ BUFFALO
Chicago at HOUSTON -3
I'm fully aware of the mantra that states: "Stay away from teams that have nothing to play for." However, Houston is an interesting case, because if you think the Bears are going to waltz into Reliant Stadium and beat a supposedly un-motivated Texans team, you've got another thing coming and here's why:
First of all, while the Bears have won their last 3 games (barely), all 3 of those games were at Soldier Field, so let's not overestimate those efforts. The Bears have proven solid at home this season, but sitting at 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS away, its clear they're vulnerable on the road.
Second, in case you haven't noticed, the Texans are solid at home, and if you needed any proof of that, pop in the DVD of their win over the Titans two weeks ago! We knew they'd be in for a letdown the week following the Titans win, but now, a return home is EXACTLY what this Houston team needs to regroup.
Third, while the Bears obviously need to win here, the Texans are not going to simply lie down like dogs. They're looking to end the season at .500, and also improve upon their rock-solid 5-2 SU home record. The fact the line on this contest is where its at, should tell you that oddsmakers respect the Texans in this spot, and so do I.
Bottom line, I understand the motivational aspect for Chicago, but how can you back a team that's only road wins on the season were: at Indy in the season opener (when Peyton was struggling, and so were the Colts), at Detroit, and at St. Louis... Excuse me if I'm hardly impressed by the resume! Texans have been great at home all season, and I expect their high-powered offense and much improved defense, to expose the Bears for what they are: a pretender.
Take Houston over Chicago in this NFL match up.
2♦ HOUSTON
Ben Burns
Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers Over 37½
Both the 49ers and Redskins will miss the playoffs, so expect a more wide open style on offense this Sunday. Play the Over when Washington takes on San Francisco.
Both teams have been eliminated from the postseason race, so this game is strictly for pride. With no reason to play conservatively, I expect both offenses to attempt to open things up and for this final score to prove higher-scoring than most are expecting.
Note that the last meeting (10/23/05) between these teams had an Over/Under line of just 37 but that it finished with a whopping 69 combined points.
It's true that the Redskins have been a highly profitable under team this season. However, they haven't played a truly 'meaningless' game until now and their earlier results have helped keep today's number extremely low. It should also be noted that Washington is one of the few teams which has scored more points on the road than it has at home. Additionally, the Skins' defense hasn't been quite as stingy on the road as at home.
It's been almost exactly a year since the 49ers played a home game with an over/under line in the 30s. The last time that they did so was on 12/23/07. Coincidentally, that game also came against a team featuring a top tier defense (Tampa Bay) and it also came in the final week of the regular season. The game had a total of 36½ and finished with 40 combined points.
Including the result from last season's home finale, the Over is a highly profitable 11-2 the last 13 times that San Francisco played a home game with a total in the 35½ to 38 range. This season, San Francisco home games have averaged a healthy 47.6 combined points. The 49'ers last six games here have all produced greater than 37 combined points and I look for more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Consider the Over.
Pick: Redskins-49ers Over 37½
Big Al
Oakland Raiders +13 cover at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Teams facing 'must win' situations have fared poorly against the spread in the NFL. Take the points and the Oakland Raiders on the road at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Our Sunday NFL selection is on the Oakland Raiders +13 on the road over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Oakland Raiders +13 cover at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay must win if it is to make the postseason and, as such, will draw a lot of action from the bettors this week. But the oddsmakers know this, so they customarily juice the lines of teams which are in 'must-win' situations. The upshot is that the tariffs are way too high, and it's profitable to play against these teams in 'must-win' situations – especially when they're matched up against teams which have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Last week, there were five of these situations, and three of our teams in 'must-win' predicaments failed to cover the spread. Those three teams were the Jets (-3½) vs Seattle; Chicago (-4) vs. Green Bay; and Denver (-6½) vs. Buffalo. The two teams which came through were Miami (-3½) over KC and Indianapolis (-6) over Jacksonville, though it's worth noting that all three winners were fairly easy, and our two losers (KC and Jacksonville) covered the spread for most of the game before faltering in the final minutes. Play on Oakland over Tampa.
Pick: Raiders +13
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Today's Free Pick is Oakland +13
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