Platinum Plays
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
This is a great time of year in the NFL where pretty much the best eight teams are left and each game is the end of another year for the loser. Our best against your best and let it all out on the field. San Diego and Pittsburgh played each other earlier this year in snowy and sloppy conditions that resulted in a Pittsburgh victory (11-10) on a Jeff Reed 32 yard field goal with 13 seconds remaining. The early forecast for Sunday’s contest is 28° and sunny which should mean Heinz Field should be in pretty good shape for this time of year.
Norv Turner brings his red hot San Diego Chargers to town and they have to feel very good about their chances. They won four games in a row at the end of the season to make up a three game deficit to the Denver Broncos to win the AFC West. In the first round of the playoffs they defeated the Indianapolis Colts in overtime (23-17) behind the 300+ all purpose yards of the big, little man, Darren Sproles. They’ll likely have to depend on Spoles heavily again this Sunday as LaDainian Tomlinson is doubtful to play with a groing injury that will require surgery in the future. Chargers QB Phillip Rivers was the NFL’s highest rated passer (105.5) during the regular season and tossed 34 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions. The Chargers wideouts are decent and deep but, a big game by Chris Chambers would be welcomed. Unwelcomed is the distraction brought about by WR Vincent Jackson (Chargers leading receiver) who was picked up for his second DUI during the week. TE Antonio Gates has been battling a high ankle sprain and may not be 100% but, he’s still better than the majority of TE’s in the league, even when injured. The other TE Brandon Manumaleuna is a punishing run blocker with surprisingly soft hands. The Chargers offense was the NFL’s second best scoring at a rate of 27.4 points per game trailing only the New Orleans Saints. The Charger defense ranked right around the middle of the NFL giving up 21.7 points per game. I’m not sure about Norv Turner’s ability as a head coach however, the team finally started to play up to it’s talent level at the end of the year without having to depend on Turner motivating the team or his gameday coaching decisions.
The name of the game for the Pittsburgh Steelers is DEFENSE. They were the top ranked defense in the NFL this year giving up a stingy 13.7 points per game. Led by the zone-blitzing guru, defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steeler defense of 2008 was reminiscent of the “Steel Curtain” defenses of years ago. With hard-hitting S Troy Polamalu patroling all over the field and one of the finest linebacker corps (led by James Harrison -NFL Defensive Player of the Year) in the NFL, the Steelers pressure the quarterback from all angles and control opposing offenses. The defense was blessed by good health this season which also aided their cause. The Steelers are also hoping QB Ben Roethlisberger has recovered from a mild concussion suffered in the regular season finale against the Cleveland Browns. To be honest, he wasn’t all that great before the concussion throwing for 15 interceptions versus 17 touchdowns. However, he is the leader of the offense and the unit rallies around him. The Steelers really need RBs Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore to rush the ball effectively and run some game clock to keep the defense fresh. WR Hines Ward caught 81 passes for 1043 and adds the element of being a great run blocker. Head coach Mike Tomlin does a good job of getting his players focused but has made questionable decisions in the heat of the moment and the Steelers can’t afford any miscues during the playoffs.
The Chargers actually catch a break with RB LaDainian Tomlinson not expected to play. Tomlinson hasn’t been the same running back when he left a playoff game last year with a knee injury. Sproles is rested and more of a threat at the present and will challenge the Steelers defense to shut him down. The Steelers were (6-2) at home this year and the home field advantage could prove big against a Charger team that was (3-5) on the road. The current line for this game is Pittsburgh - 6 with the Over/Under currently 38. In a blueprint for postseason games of defense being a big part of advancing in the playoffs, look for this game to stay under 38.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +4
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Eagles as they travel up the turnpike to face the Giants slated to start at 1:00 EST Sunday. AiS shows a 73% probability that philadelphia will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 45% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 23-14 making 31.2 units since 1983. Play on road teams versus the money line in a game involving 2 very good teams outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 61-30 for 67% since 1983. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are average passing teams gaining 5.9-6.7 PYA facing an average passing defense allowing 5.9-6.7 PYA after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. For 15 years Philly has played some of their best football when facing the best competition. Note that the Eagles are a solid 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of win percentage of 60% to 75% in the second half of the season since 1992. Further reflecting this characteristic of a team playing better than their norm when facing the best teams Philly is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Giants were once 11-1 and at that the time the Eagles were almost buried for dead. Over the past 5 weeks of the regular season the Eagles have played as good if not better than anyone in the conference and far more consistently than the Giants. The Eagles are loose playing with House money and the pressure is squarely on the Giants to advance. Take the Eagles.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: San Antonio
The Magic opens the first of a lengthy West Coast road swing in San Antonio looking to improve on their lofty start to the 2008-09 season. Don't look for that to happen here tonight. Not with the Spurs looking to avenge a 90-78 loss suffered at Disney World in December. Our history book reminds us that San Antonio is 7-2 ATS with revenge in this series, including a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS when avenging a same season defeat. To make matters worse for Orlando they are 0-3 SU and ATS in games after hooking the Hawks in their last game the past two seasons. Stay at home with the Spurs here this evening.
Scott Rickenbach
NEW YORK GIANTS vs PHILADELPHIA
Play UNDER
Consider a play on the UNDER in this match-up. Teams have a way of figuring out how to best combat a team's strengths when they meet frequently and that is certainly the case between the Giants and Eagles. This will be their third meeting this season. The first one was a crazy 36 to 31 affair in Philadelphia. The second one was a much more defensive-minded struggle where the Giants only two touchdowns came on a blocked field goal run back for a touchdown and a last-second meaningless touchdown just before the game expired. In other words, the 20 to 14 final in that December game in New York doesn't even give proper value to the fact that the defenses dominated in that one. The Eagles and Giants both rely heavily on blitz packages and they should both have success in holding the opposing quarterback in check in this game as a result. The Giants offense did not look near as strong down the stretch run as they did earlier this season. Maybe Plaxico Burress meant more to this team than first thought! As for the Eagles, their offense has not been that impressive against top tier competition. That didn't safely have the game in hand against the Vikings last week until Brian Westbrook broke that 72 yard screen pass for a touchdown. Prior to that, their win over Dallas saw the 44 points sparked by turnovers as they actually had just 16 first downs in the game! Prior to that the Eagles managed just a field goal at Washington in what was essentially a must-win game. Their offense may not be able to be trusted here against a rock solid defense but, likewise, the Giants offense could have trouble with an Eagles team that has only allowed 74 points in their last six games! While we won't commit to the side in this match-up just yet. We will tell you that we can see some value with the under in this match-up and that could be worth a look in this one. Consider a play on UNDER the total in the New York Giants game on Sunday.
James Patrick Sports
Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Bo Ryan has had his problems with the Boilermakers as his Badgers have dropped 5 straight ATS to Purdue and they are 1-5 ATS in Mackey Arena. Our Sunday selection in NCAA College Basketball action is Purdue Boilermakers.
Jim Feist
PHOENIX SUNS at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
TAKE UNDER
The Clippers are in a dog fight for last place in the Pacific Division with the Kings. Despite off-season acquisitions of Baron Davis and Marcus Camby, the offense still is running on empty. The Clippers have scored more than 100 points just once in the last 10 games. In addition, the Clips are 3-7 O/U their last 10 home games. And, against the Suns the numbers don't get much better. How about 0-3 O/U last three at home against the Suns, scoring 97, 88 and 90 points respectively. In addition, the last seven overall against the Suns, 1-7 O/U. Conversely, the Suns have scored more than 100 points in 13 of their last 14 games. HC Terry Porter wanted to stress defense in the preseason, but so far the Suns rank 24th in points allowed (102 ppg). The Clippers offense ranks only above the Bobcats in points scored (93ppg) and today they will be lucky to get that number. Look for some of the Suns regulars to get a little more rest here against the Clippers and that will result in a UNDER in this contest.
Strike Point Sports
Take Philadelphia/New York Over 40
Rivals collide in one of the NFC semi-final match-ups, and I see both accounting for at least 20 points in this one. Granted you could argue each team's defense is their strong suit, however both the Eagles and Giants have plenty of playmakers on offense, and we've seen some good amount of points scored in the playoffs so far. In a close, back-and-forth game, we'll take the 'over' in this one.
THE KING MAKER
UCLA Bruins -2 2 Units
Mr. A
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
NY Giants have lost four of their last 6 games versus Philadelphia at home, 2-4 ATS. Take the Eagles in a close fight and a possible outright win. The Eagles defense will put relentless pressure on Giants quarterback Eli Manning. Take the points.
Philadelphia Eagles +4
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers' explosive offense will keep this battle close, but the Steelers defense, ranked best in the league will get the job done The Steelers have won six of the last seven meetings and are 20-8 all-time in this series. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6
Wild Bill
Eagles +4 (5 units)
Chargers +6 (5 units)
Chargers-Steelers Over 38.5 (5 units)
Jeff Benton
San Diego +1' at SANTA CLARA
Tough loser on Vanderbilt with Saturday’s free play, as the Commodores came up one basket shy of covering the spread at Kentucky. Still, I’m 15-6 with my last 21 freebies in College Hoops and 38-18 over the last 56 days with complimentary plays. For Sunday, we’ll look to improve on both records by backing San Diego at Santa Clara in West Coast Conference action.
Although Santa Clara gained a moral victory in Friday’s 63-62 loss at St. Mary’s as a 13-point underdog, the fact remains the Broncos have dropped six of their last eight games, with the only two victories coming at home against UTEP in overtime (89-80) and Belmont (83-80). Also, despite easily covering at St. Mary’s, Santa Clara is just 2-4 ATS in its last six lined games.
Meanwhile, San Diego has won three in a row and five of its last six (4-1 ATS in lined games), including Friday’s 65-50 rout of San Francisco as a two-point road favorite in its West Coast Conference opener. The Toreros have been shooting light’s out from the field (53 percent overall, 46.3 percent from three-point land in the last five contests), and they’ve done it all without their best player (point guard Brandon Johnson is out for the season after suffering an Achilles injury in early December).
San Diego swept the season series from Santa Clara last year and is 6-2 (5-3 ATS) in the last eight meetings. And if the Toreros end up being an underdog, note that the pup has cashed in five straight meetings in this rivalry. Throw in the fact that San Diego is on ATS runs of 36-15 on the road, 16-5 in WCC games and 7-2 in its last nine trips to Santa Clara, and this one’s a no-brainer. Back the visitor.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (10-6-1, 11-6 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (12-4 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Giants, who got last week off as the NFC’s No. 1 seed, play host to the surging Eagles in a playoff battle of NFC East rivals at the Meadowlands.
New York finished the regular season on a 1-3 SU skid (2-2 ATS), including a 20-19 loss to Minnesota. However, the Giants rested or limited several players in that contest, so much so that they went off as a seven-point road underdog, yet the Vikings still needed a last-second field goal to get the victory playing at full strength. QB Eli Manning (11 of 19, 119 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) played only the first half, and David Carr (8 of 11, 110 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was solid in relief as New York had no turnovers and rallied from a 10-0 first-quarter deficit. Even in losing, the Giants outgained the Vikes 357-328 and won the time-of-possession battle by almost nine minutes (34:19-25:41).
With the Giants losing but covering against the Vikings, the SU winner failed to cover for the first time in New York’s last 13 games.
Sixth-seeded Philadelphia faced that same Minnesota team last Sunday in the wild-card round, pulling away for a 26-14 victory as a three-point road chalk to improve to 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six weeks. QB Donovan McNabb (23 of 34, 300 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was solid, despite throwing one pick and losing a fumble, and RB Brian Westbrook came up with McNabb’s lone TD pass, turning a screen play into a 71-yard scoring jaunt to put Minnesota in control with a 23-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter. The Eagles defense got a 44-yard INT return for a score from Asante Samuel in the first half, and it shut out Minnesota in the second half, holding RB Adrian Peterson (20 carries, 83 yards, 2 TDs) well below his season average of 110 rushing ypg.
These division rivals met just over a month ago in the same location, with Philly claiming a 20-14 win as a 6½-point road underdog, halting a 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS run by New York in this series. The underdog has cashed in the last eight clashes, including six outright upsets, and the road team is on a 6-1 ATS tear. That includes New York’s 36-31 win in Philadelphia as a three-point ‘dog in the first meeting this season.
New York led the NFL in rushing offense (157.4 yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry) and ranked in the Top 10 in scoring offense (26.7 points per game, tied for third) and total offense (355.9 ypg, seventh). RBs Brandon Jacobs (1,089 yards, 5.0 ypc) and Derrick Ward (1,025 yards, 5.6 ypc) both cracked the 1,000-yard barrier, with Jacobs 11th and Ward 15th among the league’s top rushers. Jacobs also had 15 rushing TDs, tying Tennessee’s Lendale White for third. Manning completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 3,238 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs.
The Giants also fielded a Top 10 defense as well, with averages of 18.4 ppg (fifth), 288.8 total ypg (fourth), 196.2 passing ypg (eighth) and 95.8 rushing yards (ninth). New York finished the year with a plus-9 turnover differential.
In the regular season, Philly had the league’s sixth-best scoring offense (26 ppg) and was ninth in total offense (350.5 ypg), paced by the sixth-rated passing attack (244.4 ypg). McNabb completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs, against 11 INTs. Also, Westbrook, despite being dinged up a few times during the season, rushed for 936 yards (4.0 ypc) and nine TDs, and he had 54 catches for another 402 yards and five scores.
Philadelphia fielded one of the league’s best defenses, allowing 18.1 ppg, 274.3 total ypg (third), 182.1 passing ypg (third) and 92.2 rushing ypg (fourth). The Eagles finished the year with a plus-3 turnover differential, and last week, they played even with the Vikes, as both teams had two giveaways.
The Giants went 9-3 ATS as a chalk this season (6-1 last seven) and were 6-2 ATS at home, and they are on further spread-covering streaks of 21-6 overall, 4-0 in January, 5-0 in the playoffs (including last year’s Super Bowl title run), 7-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 at home and 16-5 against winning teams. The lone knock against New York: a 6-13 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record.
The Eagles are on a slew of positive ATS streaks, including 5-1 in the postseason, 11-4 on the highway, 4-0 in playoff roadies, 4-0 as an underdog, 10-1 as a road pup and 4-0 against winning teams. Philly is also 5-1 ATS in its last six divisional playoff games.
The over for New York is on runs of 9-4-1 at home and 7-3-1 with the Giants favored, and the over for Philadelphia is on stretches of 20-6 with the Eagles as an underdog, 7-2 with the Eagles as a road pup and 23-10-1 against winning teams. However, the under for the Giants is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 in January and 7-2 against the NFC East, and the under for the Eagles is on streaks of 6-1-1 in the playoffs, 5-1-1 after a SU win and 5-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
San Diego (9-8, 8-8-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (12-4, 9-7 ATS)
The fourth-seeded Chargers, winners of five straight games, make the cross-country trek to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers, who won six of seven down the stretch to get the AFC’s second seed and a bye week.
San Diego, which had to win its last four regular-season games just to get into the playoffs, kept rolling in last Saturday’s wild-card contest by edging Indianapolis 23-17 in overtime as a 1½-point home underdog. QB Philip Rivers (20 of 36, 217 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a sub-par outing by his standards, and the Chargers lost the turnover battle 2-0. But RB Darren Sproles – picking up the slack for an ailing LaDainian Tomlinson – had 105 yards and two TDs on 23 carries (4.6 ypc), five catches for 45 yards, plus another 178 yards on kickoff and punt returns for a whopping 328 all-purpose yards.
Sproles clinched the victory with a 22-yard TD run on the only possession of overtime. Tomlinson (5 carries, 25 yards, 1 TD) was limited by a groin tear, and is doubtful this game.
Despite having nothing to play for, Pittsburgh capped the regular season with a 31-0 shuout of Cleveland as an 11-point home chalk, ending on a 5-1 SU and ATS run. But the win over the Browns came at a cost, as QB Ben Roethlisberger (9 of 14, 110 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) suffered a concussion in the second quarter and did not return. RB Willie Parker (23 carries, 116 yards, 1 TD) led a ground game that gained 176 yards, and the Steelers’ finished with a 369-126 edge in total yards. Pittsburgh also won the turnover battle 2-0, with Tyrone Carter taking an INT back 32 yards for a fourth-quarter TD.
Roethlisberger practiced all week and has been cleared to start.
San Diego has covered in its last two meetings with Pittsburgh, following a 4-0 SU and ATS run by the Steelers in this rivalry. Two months ago at Heinz, Pittsburgh got a field goal in the final minute to post the first 11-10 victory in NFL history, though the Steelers would have covered if a Troy Polamalu fumble-return TD on the game’s last play wasn’t mistakenly overruled by officials. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
In regular-season action, San Diego finished second in the league in scoring at 27.4 ppg and put up 349 ypg (11th), including 241.1 passing ypg (seventh). Rivers finished as the NFL’s highest-rated passer, completing 65 percent of his throws for 4,009 yards (fifth in the league) and 34 TDs (tied for first) with just 11 INTs. Tomlinson (1,110 yards, 3.8 ypc, 11 TDs) was 10th in the league in rushing in what was easily the least productive of his eight seasons.
On defense, the Chargers allowed 349.9 ypg (25th), but that only translated into 21.7 ppg for their opponents (15th). Factoring in last week’s minus-2 effort versus the Colts, San Diego is now just plus-2 in turnover margin for the year.
Pittsburgh’s offense was in the back half of the league in the regular season, with per-game averages of 21.7 points (20th), 311.9 total yards (22nd), 105.6 rushing yards (23rd) and 206.3 passing yards (17th). Roethlisberger was the NFL’s 24th-rated QB, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards, offsetting 17 TD throws with 15 INTs. Parker, limited to 11 games, rushed for 791 yards (3.8 ypc) and five TDs, and WR Hines Ward (81 catches, 1,043 yards, 7 TDs) tied for 14th in receptions and was 15th in receiving yards.
With such a lackluster offense, the Steelers needed a sterling defense, and they had it in the league’s No. 1-ranked unit in points allowed (a meager 13.9 per game), total yards (237.2 per game) and passing yards (156.9), along with the second-best run-stopping squad (80.2 ypg). Despite those impressive numbers, Pittsburgh finished just plus-4 in turnover differential, thanks in most part to Roethlisberger’s miscues.
Despite their middling SU record, the Chargers are on pointspread hot streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in the playoffs, 10-1-1 as a ‘dog of 3½-10 points, 21-7-3 as a pup of any price, 4-1-1 as a road ‘dog, 9-3-1 against winning teams and 11-5 after a spread-cover.
The Steelers, along with their current 5-1 ATS surge, sport positive pointspread trends of 4-0 in January, 5-0 in the playoffs, 4-1 against winning teams and 22-8 as a home chalk of 3½-10 points. But Pittsburgh also carries negative ATS streaks of 1-6 after putting up more than 30 points and 2-7 after a SU win of more than 14 points.
The under for San Diego is on stretches of 7-1 in January, 5-1 in the postseason, 7-2-1 against AFC foes and 6-2 against winning teams. However, the over is 16-6-2 in the Chargers’ last 24 roadies, and it is on rolls for Pittsburgh of 44-19-2 at Heinz Field, 7-1 in home playoff tilts, 14-2 in January, 10-2 in playoff games, 5-1 with the Steelers as a playoff chalk and 11-4 against the AFC.
Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these squads, with the last three in a row staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Penn State (13-3, 7-2 ATS) at (22) Minnesota (14-1, 6-3-1 ATS)
Minnesota will try to make it eight straight over the Nittany Lions when it hosts this Big Ten matchup inside Williams Arena in Minneapolis.
Penn State has split its first two conference games, losing at Wisconsin 65-61 as a 9½-point underdog back on Jan. 3 and then returning home to beat Purdue on Tuesday 67-64, cashing as a 2½-point favorite. The Nittany Lions have gotten the cash in their last three overall and they are 4-1 ATS in either road or neutral site contests this season.
Minnesota is 11-1 at home but just 4-3 ATS. The Gophers went to Iowa on Thursday and scored a 52-49 win as a 1½-point underdog. They have split their first two Big Ten games in Minnesota, losing to Michigan State and beating Ohio State. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home but just 2-7 ATS in front of the home fans in their last nine against teams with a winning record.
Penn State hasn’t beaten the Gophers since 2004, losing seven straight (2-5 ATS), including both matchups last season. Minnesota earned a 76-73 win in Pennsylvania as a 1½-point ‘dog and then beat the Nittany Lions 75-68 at home but failed to cash as and 11½-point chalk. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 series clashes, but the underdog has gotten the money in four of the last five.
The Lions are on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 5-0 against Big Ten competition, 4-1 on the road and 5-2-2 on Sundays. Meanwhile the Gophers are on ATS streaks of 6-1 overall and 5-1 coming off a straight-up win.
For Penn State, the under is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-2 against Big Ten squads and 4-1 following a straight-up win. Minnesota is on “under” runs of 38-18 overall, 37-17 at home, 20-8 in conference play and 36-16-1 following a spread-cover. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings, including 4-1 in Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
Wisconsin (12-3, 7-6 ATS) at (14) Purdue (11-4, 4-7 ATS)
The Boilermakers will try to end a two-game skid when they host Wisconsin in this Big Ten matchup inside Mackey Arena in West Lafayette.
The two losses have been tough for Purdue. First, it fell 71-67 at home to Illinois in overtime in its conference opener on Dec. 30, losing as an eight-point favorite. Then on Tuesday, the Boilermakers lost at Penn State 67-64 an again failed to cash as a 2½-point chalk. Purdue is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and 2-6 ATS in its last eight lined contests.
Wisconsin has opened the Big Ten campaign with three straight wins (2-1 ATS), including Wednesday’s 74-45 blowout victory over Northwestern, easily cashing as a seven-point home favorite. The Badgers are 4-2 ATS in their six road/neutral site games this season and they are 6-3 ATS in their last nine overall.
Purdue swept the season series last year, winning 60-56 at home as a 1½-point home underdog and then shocking the Badgers at Wisconsin 72-67 as a 10-point pup in early-February. The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Badgers and 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six at Mackey Arena. Purdue has been an underdog in the last five matchups and covered each time.
Wisconsin is on positive ATS trends of 7-1 on the road, 9-2 against Big Ten squads, 14-6 after a straight-up win and 4-1 on Sundays. Purdue us just on ATS slides of 1-6 at home, 1-4 overall, 2-6 against teams with a winning record but the Boilermakers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 conference games.
For the Badgers, the under is 7-3 in their last 10 Big Ten games, 22-7 in their last 29 after a spread-cover and 8-2 in their last 10 Sunday games. The Gophers have topped the total in seven of their last 10 Sunday games and four of their last five conference games. In this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(3) North Carolina (14-1, 6-7 ATS) at (4) Wake Forest (13-0, 5-4 ATS)
The Demon Deacons put their perfect record on the line in this classic ACC showdown with North Carolina.
There was talk of a perfect season for the Tar Heels until they were shocked at home by Boston College a week ago 85-78 as 23-point favorites. Roy Williams’ squad was able to rebound in emphatic style with Wednesday’s 108-70 win over Charlotte, cashing in as a 27-point favorite. The ‘Heels average 93.1 points a game and shoot 49.8 percent from the floor.
Wake has been perfect this season, but this is the first conference game for the Deacons. They’ve had more than a week off since their 94-87 win in Provo, Utah, on Jan. 3, beating BYU as a four-point underdog and halting the Cougars’ 53-game home winning streak. Wake Forest has the offense to hang with North Carolina, averaging 85.2 points a game and shooting 51.2 percent from the floor while holding the opposition to 36.4 percent shooting and 64.1 points.
North Carolina has won four straight (4-0 ATS) in this rivalry, including last year’s 89-73 win, narrowly cashing as a 15½-point favorite.
The Tar Heels are just 0-4 ATS in their last four ACC contests and 1-5 ATS following a straight-up win, but they are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 39-16-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 27-11 against teams with a winning overall record. Wake is just 1-5 ATS in its last six ACC games, but it is 13-6-2 ATS in its last 21 home games and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a spread-cover.
For North Carolina, the over is 5-1 in its last six Sunday games and 8-3-1 in its last 12 after a spread-cover. The Demon Deacons have topped the total in six of their last eight ACC games and four of their last five against teams with a winning record. In this series, the over has been the play in four of the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(10) UCLA (12-2, 6-7 ATS) at USC (10-4, 6-6 ATS)
Crosstown rivals meet for the first of two games this season when UCLA makes the short trek to the Galen Center in Los Angeles to face the Trojans.
UCLA is riding an eight-game winning streak (3-4 ATS) and hasn’t lost since an early-December visit to Texas, a 68-64 setback as a six-point underdog. The Bruins swept their opening Pac-10 doubleheader last weekend, winning 69-46 at Oregon State on Jan. 2 as a 15-point favorite and then scoring an 83-74 win at Oregon a week ago, coming up just short as a 10½-point chalk.
USC had its five-game winning streak stopped at Oregon State a week ago, falling 62-58 in overtime as an 11-point favorite. The Trojans, who hold the opposition to 59.2 points and 37.5 percent shooting at home, are 8-0 inside the Galen Center but just 3-3 ATS in lined contests.
The Bruins took two of three against USC last season (1-2 ATS), winning 56-46 on the Trojans’ home court as 6½-point favorites and then eliminating USC from the Pac-10 tournament with a 57-54 win, but falling well short as eight-point favorites. UCLA has won seven of the last nine meetings, but the Trojans have gotten the cash in five of the last six, all as an underdog. The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the last two years in this rivalry.
UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four Sunday games, but the Bruins are on ATS streaks of 36-16-1 on the road, 37-17 after a non-cover, 9-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. The Trojans are also 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games and just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road mark, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 18-6 following a straight-up loss and 19-7 following a non-cover.
The Bruins have topped the total in five of their last seven Pac-10 games, but otherwise the under is on runs of 5-2 on the road, 5-2 on Sundays and 4-1 following a non-cover. The Trojans are on “over” streaks of 9-4 at home, 23-10 in Pac-10 games, 5-2 overall and 4-1 following a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
NBA
Orlando (29-8, 24-12-1 ATS) at San Antonio (24-11, 17-17-1 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off at the AT&T Center, where the Magic, winners of 12 of their last 14, hook up with the Spurs, winners of nine of their last 10.
Orlando now has the second-best record in the Eastern Conference after sweeping a home-and-home series over the Hawks Wednesday and Friday. The Magic went to Atlanta and got a 106-102 win as two-point ‘dogs on Wednesday and then crushed the Hawks 121-87 at home on Friday and easily cashed as five-point favorites. Orlando is on a 14-3 ATS run overall and it is 12-5-1 ATS on the road this season.
The Spurs have won four straight (3-1 ATS), including a 106-84 rout of the Clippers on Thursday, covering as 13-point home favorites. San Antonio is 14-6 SU at home, but just 8-11-1 ATS.
The Magic got a 90-78 home win over the Spurs back on Dec. 18, easily cashing as 2½-point favorites. But going back to 2003, the Spurs are 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) against the Magic at home and they have covered the number in three of the last four overall.
Orlando is on a bevy of positive ATS streaks, including 19-7-1 overall, 26-10-1 as an underdog, 14-3 against the Western Conference, 11-2 following a spread-cover, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 9-1 against teams with a winning record and 45-22-3 on the road. The Spurs are on ATS slides of 1-5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 as a home favorite and 1-5 following a spread-cover, but they are 8-3 ATS when getting two days off and 9-4 ATS against the Southeast Division.
The Magic are on “under” streaks of 29-14 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against Western Conference teams, but they have topped the total in four of their last five on the highway and five of their last six as a ‘dog. San Antonio is riding “under” runs of 29-14-1 overall, 20-7 against the Southeast Division, 20-8-2 after a straight-up win and 4-1 in Sunday games, but they have topped the total in four straight at home and four of five after a spread-cover. In this series, the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings in the Lone Star state.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Miami (19-16, 14-19-2 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (29-6, 16-19 ATS)
The Lakers will try to avenge one of their six losses this season when they welcome the Heat to the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles has won eight of its last nine (5-4 ATS) but had to hold on to beat Indiana on Friday, escaping with a 121-119 win but coming nowhere near covering the 14½-point number. The Lakers have followed a five-game ATS winning streak with three consecutive non-covers. They are 19-2 at home this year but just 10-11 ATS.
The Heat are in the midst of a seven-game road trip, having dropped the opener in Denver on Wednesday 108-97 as a 5½-point ‘dog and then winning 119-115 in overtime in Sacramento on Friday, cashing as 3½-point favorites. Dwyane Wade was a beast against the Kings, putting up a season-high 41 points with seven assists and five rebounds.
The host has won seven of the last eight series clashes between these two (5-3 ATS), including Miami’s 89-87 home victory back on Dec. 19 as eight-point ‘dogs. The win snapped a three-game Lakers’ winning streak (2-1 ATS) in this series, including a 106-88 triumph in the Staples Center last year laying 14 points.
The Heat are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 8-22-2 ATS in their last 32 Sunday games, but they are on ATS streaks of 5-2-1 against the Pacific Division and 4-1-1 as an underdog of 11 points or more. The Lakers have been a disaster at the betting window, riding negative trends of 1-11 after a non-cover, 4-18 against the Eastern Conference, 0-5 against the Southeast Division, 4-13 as a favorite, 5-13 overall and 17-35 as a favorite of 11 points or more.
For Miami, the under is on streaks of 20-9 as a ‘dog, 13-6 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 on Sundays, 5-0 after a straight-up win and 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Los Angeles is on “over” runs of 11-4 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 at home, 4-1 after a straight-up win and 12-5 as a favorite of 11 points or more. However, in this rivalry, the under has been the play in seven of the last eight.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- San Diego +16, Philadelphia +14, San Diego/ Pittsburgh Over 27.5
2 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/ Pittsburgh Over 37.5
The Over is 16-6-2 in Chargers last 24 road games and 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while the Over is 13-3-1 in Steelers last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 10-2 in their last 12 playoff games. These two teams played back in week 11 and combined for just 21 points, but i see a different story this time around. Charger games this year have averaged 48.6 ppg, including 45.2 ppg on the road. The Charger offense comes in ranked 11th overall and 2nd in scoring and they have been on a bigger tear lately putting up 38.7 ppg in their last 3 games. I know SD has no Tomlinson, but Sproles has filled in nicely and Rivers is the hottest QB around right now, so even though they are taking on the top defense in the league the Bolts should still be good for at least 20 points in this one. The Pittsburgh Offense has struggled a bit down the stetch, but they are taking on a San Diego defense that is 25th overall, 31st against the pass and 15th in points allowed. That Charger defense has been tougher down the stretch, but they have still allowed 20.8 ppg in their last 4 games. Pittsburgh does put 23 ppg on the board at home and I see them hitting at least that much vs this San Diego defense. Even in frigid Pittsburgh I see a game that will post a score in the high 40's.
1 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia +4 over NY GIANTS
The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games, while the Giants are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, plus the Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings. This series is always close as 6 of the last 8 games have been decided by 6 points or less. The Eagles have been on a tear down the stretch, winning 5 of their last 6 games and I feel that they have what it takes to take care of the Giants on their home field. Eagles by a FG.
Jimmy The Moose
St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Over
The over is a profitable 27-12 for the Blues this season. On the road St. Louis averages 2.47 GPG and their D is allowing 3.63 GPG and the result is a profitable 12-6 over away from home. The Blues have played over the total in 4 of their last 5 games overall. Edmonton has struggled to score goals of late but a game against the Blues will turn that around. The over is 6-1-1 in the Blues last 8 trips to Edmonton. In the last 9 meetings overall between the clubs the over is 7-0-2. Play the over.