Johnny Guild
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers are on a roll and played outstanding against the colts last week, but traveling to the East to collide with the Steelers defense in freezing weather and possible snow showers in Pittsburgh could be a bit daunting for any team. No doubt this will be a close clash, but playing in Pittsburgh and the weather conditions is a huge benefit for the Steelers.The Steelers' defense won’t allow the Chargers offense to burst out or the running of Darren Sproles and questionable LaDainian Tomlinson to easily move the chains on their home turf. Look for the Steelers to control the ball. Sure, they couldn’t score a touchdown in the last battle with the Chargers, but would have if not for a bad call and did run for over 400 yards. Take the Steelers! Pittsburg has won six of seven meetings versus the Chargers, going 5-2 ATS. San Diego has never won in Pittsburgh.
New York Giants -4
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Nostradamus
Giants -4
Pittsburgh -6.5
Atlanta -6.5
Clippers +9.5
Miami/Lakers Under 203
Kent st +2.5
Rider -5
LT Profits
Wake Forest +5.0
Now we feel that the North Carolina Tar Heels are the best team in the country, but we think that they will have there hands full with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons tonight, and an outright upset would not shock us one bit.
You see, while North Carolina has gotten all of the national publicity, Wake Forest has quietly gotten off to a 13-0 start. They say that defense wins championships, and Wake Forest currently ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency, limiting their opponents to .821 points per possession. Comparatively, UNC ranks 26 in defensive PPP at .893.
This is not to say that Wake cannot keep pace with Carolina offensively, as the Deacons are averaging 85.2 points per game vs. Division I opponents on an incredible 51.2 percent shooting from the floor. It is this balance between offense and defense that always makes Wake Forest a dangerous team when they are underdogs.
Now North Carolina leads the country in scoring at 93.1 points, and while they are shooting en excellent 49.8 percent, that figure is actually slightly less than Wake. Thus, as great as the Heels are, they can be had by a team that can slow them down, and the Deacs are certainly capable of that based on their defensive numbers.
Also, defensive shooting percentage favors Wake, as they are limiting Division I opponents to 36.4 percent shooting while North Carolina is allowing those opponents to hit 39.7 percent. Add in home court advantage and Wake Forest offers lots of value as underdogs here.
Pick: Wake Forest +5
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Penn State +7
I know Penn State upset Purdue its last time out but I don't see any major letdowns for this team today. The Lions believed they could beat the Boilermakers and I guarantee you that they aren't shaking in their boots over Minnesota. Minnesota has been a strong covering team this season, but it will not be good enough to cover this number as odds makers have overvalued the Gophers. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 on the road and a perfect 4-0 ATS in those game. They are 7-2 ATS in all lined games this season. The Golden Gophers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Sunday games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big Ten and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. We'll take the points.
Vegas Experts
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Weather should be an issue in this late Sunday start with the probability of snow and temperatures in the teens expected. When these teams met during the regular season, they combined for just 21 total points in the NFL's first ever 11-10 final. Last week, playing in warm weather San Diego, the Chargers combined for just 39 points (with overtime) against the high-powered Colts. Pittsburgh allowed only one regular season opponent to gain more than 300 total yards.
Play on: Under
Mike Anthony
San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Under 37
These teams have met three of the past four years with all three meetings playing ‘under’ the total. In the regular season these teams played an exciting game that finished officially 11-10, although it should have finished 18-10, and was an 8-7 game heading into the fourth quarter.Eight of the last 13 San Diego games have played ‘under’ the total and the Charger point production is a bit overvalued based on a few late season high scores. The San Diego defense has now allowed more than 24 points in any of the last nine games. Three of the last four home games for the Steelers have played ‘under’, and in six of the final seven games Pittsburgh held opponents to ten points or fewer. With Cold weather and Snow in the forecast and on the field, lets back the UNDER here.
Jack Jones
Michigan -7 over Iowa
Iowa has lost two of their last three games and are coming off an extremely disappointing 52-49 decision to Minnesota on Thursday. Now they have to travel on the road up to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines, who have won nine of their ten games played at Crisler Arena. This Hawkeye team loves to slow down the pace and milk the clock, but the Wolverines have too many offensive weapons to contain. Manny Harris, DeShawn Sims and Laval Lucas-Perry are all threats to put the ball in the basket and when the Wolverines get up big early, the Hawkeyes won’t have the tools to catch up.
Eagles/Giants UNDER 38.5
When it comes to two teams that know each other as well as these two teams do and with the talent that each squad has on defense, I don’t expect many points to be scored here today. The weather forecast that I’m receiving shows a cold day with gusty winds, which is going to also hurt the offenses. Neither team has the playmakers to really explode, the Giants are without Plaxico Burress and the Eagles don’t have Brian Westbrook at 100%. Take the UNDER here.
PRICELESS PICKS
1 Unit on Heat/Lakers OVER 203.5
Plain and simple, Miami is allowing a lot of points on the road (101.0 per game) and LA is scoring a lot at home (109.5 per game). Miami has given up 108 and 115 points in each of its last two games. This team has played a lot of games recently and that fatigue is showing up at the defensive end. LA has scored 100 or more points in 5 straight games with four of those games going for 113 or more. LA has also given up 100 or more in five of its last six games with its opponent going for 113 of more in three of those. LA has been giving up way too many easy buckets. Miami is 13-1 OVER in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons and 17-5 OVER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Over!
Michael Cannon
Philadelphia at ATLANTA -6
Take the Hawks minus the points at home this afternoon over the 76ers.
Atlanta has been very tough at home this year. Joe Johnson has been steady all season long and they boast an athletic, versatile front-court.
Philadelphia struggles on the road and will be playing for the fourth time in six days.
I don’t see the 76ers clamping down defensively in this one.
Take the Hawks as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ ATLANTA
Drew Gordon
Orlando at SAN ANTONIO -3
Wow, the public is liking Orlando in this spot, and I couldn't disagree more! Yes, Orlando is playing well, but let's not get too carried away, as they really haven't beaten anyone of note since their home win over New Orleans on Christmas Day. Recent road losses at Detroit & at Toronto should have Magic-backers worried, because while Orlando is a beast at home, at the same time they've proven vulnerable when they travel.
True, it took the Spurs some time to recover from early season injuries and the like, but at this point, is there any doubt the Spurs are back? They've won 9 of their last 10 games, including 4 straight against some pretty crappy comp, but rest-assured, Duncan and company will be looking forward to this rematch.
Remember the last time these two teams met? The Magic cruised to a 90-78 win in Orlando back on December 18th. Well boys, payback is a bitch, and the Magic are about to find that out the hard way. In that contest, all 3 of the Spurs '"big 3" played like garbage, but now that they're firing on all cylinders, you can expect a much better offensive effort this time around. Note, Magic's defense is nearly as tight on the road, allowing almost 97 ppg on 44% shooting!
Bottom line, Spurs protect their house, and at the same time send a message to the rest of the league: "we're back!" Orlando is as dominant as they come in O-town, but traveling out West to face a highly motivated Western Conference power is biting off a little more than they can chew tonight!
Take San Antonio over Orlando in this NBA match up.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Philadelphia +4 at NY GIANTS
Liking the Eagles in this spot, as they come into this game playing better football than the G-men, and have won in this stadium already once this season, 20-14 back on December 7th. Winner of 5 of their last 6 SUATS, the Eagles are peaking at precisely the right time, and we saw yesterday that momentum is just as important as an extra week (with both home teams losing outright Saturday).
Also, you cannot deny the Giants offense has been hurt significantly by the loss of Plaxico Burress. Love him or hate him, he was their best vertical threat and forced the Eagles defense to remain honest. We saw in their last meeting what happens when the Eagles are allowed to put 8 in the box at will, and I expect much of the same strategy today, as Hixon, Smith and Toomer do not scare anybody.
Finally, from a trend standpoint, its hard to ignore the fact that the underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings... And now you want me to lay more than field goal with a sputtering, one-dimensional Giants team? Factor in the public's unabashed love for the G-men, and the play here rest squarely on the Eagles in this one. McNabb, Westbrook, and a rock-solid Philly stop-unit (10 ppg allowed on 282 total yards L3 games) deliver the cash Sunday afternoon!
Take Philadelphia plus the points over the NY Giants in this NFL match up.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Lucky Lester Sports
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-4)
Just wait, Andy Reid will let Eagle backers down with poor play calling sooner or later, I’ll bet sooner. The Eagles will stop running, start throwing three yard stop patterns on 2nd and 10 and 3rd and 7, and that’s when the frustration on blogs and message boards will hit an all time high. Nobody is playing better than the Eagles right now, and why not, look at all that talent on that team. Young and veteran players alike, new Eagles and old Eagles - this team certainly has the talent to make an unlikely trip to the Big Show. But, that play calling - the “not to lose” attitude that seems to ward off momentum like the Bills and Super Bowl Trophies - that will get the Eagles in the end. The Giants have already lost once to the Eagles, and got a tight win earlier in the year as well - these teams know each other, that’s for sure. But Brandon Jacobs seems fully healthy and back, and he’s a battering ram weapon that New York didn’t have last time these two went at it - not in full health anyway - but even then, his 10 carries for 52 yards might have been a precursor of what is to come when he gets 20 or more totes this weekend. This is a tough one for me, because the Eagles are so up and down and this game is huge. But the Giants aren’t so up and down, they are just flat out good and play to win the game every time out. I’ll take my chances with them.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
I feel as good about this game as I did about the Ravens last week - I think the Steelers cover easily, winning by double digits. Now, that’s not their style, I understand - but that’s the way I see it. This same Steelers team came in and stomped the Chargers in Pittsburgh earlier this year - well, physically stomped them anyway, the score was an improbable 11-10 and a Charger cover for sure. But it was an unlikely set of circumstances that finished with the Steelers needing a late field goal to win it. LT was held to 57 yards on 18 carries while the highest rated quarterback this season, Philip Rivers, was eaten up by Pittsburgh’s defense, completing 15 of 26 tosses for just 159 yards 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions; easily his worst game of the season. On the other hand, Willie Parker had 115 rushing yards, and Big Ben threw for over 300 yards as well. The Steelers just couldn’t get it in the end zone. I doubt it if the same story is played out this week. Big Ben, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and a defense full of absolute beasts that have been here before - I give them the advantage in this one, and advantage I don’t see them wasting against an inferior Chargers team.
NY Giants -4
Pittsburgh -5.5
John Ryan
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Phoenix Suns -9
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Phoenix as they visit the Clippers slated to start at 3:35 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Phoenix will win this game by 10 or more points. Also, a 88% probability that Phoenix will shoot a minimum of 47% from the field. Note that the Clippers are 0-8 ATS when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game this season. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 54-26 ATS for 68% since 1996. Play against home dogs after allowing 105 points or more facing an opponent after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games. Phoenix is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons. Clippers are just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season. Clippers are off a horrid game - again - at NO losing 107-28 and have lost 10 straight. Take Phoenix to roll.
Bryan Leonard
2* Boston at Toronto
If the opportunity presents itself we always look for play unders in these early games across the northern border. This game is scheduled to tip at 12:35 PM Eastern and it's tough for NBA players to adjust their body clocks to play at that time of day, especially on a weekend in a city with plenty of nightlife like Toronto.
It also doesn't hurt when the favorite is known as a defensive team that has been struggling as of late. The Celtic downturn has been very public and the main reason has been lack of effort on the defensive end. Boston has permitted 98 points or more in three of their last four games, losing all four matchups. That's not the style of ball coach Rivers and the team want as they know defense is what made them champions in the first place. Referring to the Cleveland loss he said "Usually we set the tone early defensively - we didn't. Give us credit; I thought in the second quarter we came back and clawed back defensively and that's what we have to do. But our defense will be the reason this will turn around."
Toronto's Chris Bosh talked about the early Sunday Toronto starts. "You have to be conscious and aware that you have to get up and get going and get your body moving," said Bosh. "You're used to waking up and shutting down and then waking up again later on. It does present a different challenge but we should be used to it now." Jose Calderon is expected back for the Raptors which will be a key in slowing down point guard Rondo for the Celts. Look for a slow start from both teams and defense to be the key as both teams prefer to win on the defensive end of the court.
PLAY UNDER
Lenny Del Genio
Kent State at Ohio University
Prediction: Ohio University
Big MAC game in Athens this afternoon with Ohio U hosting Kent State. Flashes HC Geno Ford?s younger brother is an assistant at Ohio, so there will be some familiarity for the Bobcats. Kent has been terrible at the betting window this season, covering just 2 of 11 lined games. They have not covered a game since 11/23. Since 1997, Ohio U is an awesome 20-5 ATS at home when coming off a DD win. OU won in this building over Kent LY by 12. Take Ohio.
Larry Ness
Kent State @ Ohio
PICK: Ohio
Tim Shea left Athens after last season for a challenge of a Division II school transitioning to Division I. He won 120 games in seven years at Ohio U and was a solid coach. The Bobcats wasted no time in grabbing Ohio St assistant, John Groce, known as an excellent recruiter. Kent St has been the "class of the MAC" for a decade (28-7 LY) and is one of just SEVEN Division I programs with at least 20 wins in each of the last 10 seasons (pretty heady company!). Jim Christian (six straight 20-win seasons) left for the 'greener pastures' of TCU and leading Kent is former Ohio U player, Geno Ford (an All-MAC guard with the Bobcats). Kent returns MAC p-o-y Al Fisher (15.0-3.0-3.5), who is playing as well TY, as last. However, the Golden Flashes enter their MAC opener at just 7-7. The good news is that guard Tyree Evans, a player with all sorts of 'baggage' in his history, is finally eligible and in five games is averaging 16.6 points (troubles seem behind him). KSU has two solid swingmen in Singletary (14.5-4.4) and Sullinger (6.4-4.2) plus the 6-10 Parks (8.9-6.4) and the 6-8 Simpson (6.9-5.9) add size. Ohio may have the league's best player TY, the 6-6 Tillman (19.2-9.6). Fellow 6-6 forward Orr (11.6) is good but the Bobcats can't match KSU's size. The 6-10 van Kempen (3.0-2.1) adds little and the 6-11 Nagtzaam, nothing! PG Allen (6.1-3.9 APG) is decent plus freshman Coleman (10.3-3.8-2.9) and sophomore Freeman (7.7) have played well at the two-guard position. The 6-7 Washington (6.3-4.5) will help Tillman and Orr in the frontcourt, against Kent's bigger players. With Evans joining Fisher in the backcourt, KSU may be tough in MAC play but Ohio beat KSU 71-59 here in Athens LY and I think the Bobcats are more than capable of a similar result today. Take the home team.